Date/Time: Thursday, November 14, 2024 — 15:00-17:00 (CET)
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Moderator
Ali H. Aslan (Washington-based Senior Journalist, Former Washington Correspondent & Columnist of Zaman Daily).
Speakers
“It Was (Mostly) the Economy, Stupid: Explaining Trump’s Victory,” by Dr. Alan Abramowitz (Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Emory University).
“Explaining the US Election Outcome and Its Implications for Global Populism,” by Dr. Jennifer McCoy (Regent’s Professor of Political Science at Georgia State University; Nonresident Scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace & Research Affiliate at CEU’s Democracy Institute in Budapest).
“The Role of White Evangelicals in the 2024 US Presidential Election: What We Know So Far,” by Dr. Marcia Pally (Professor at New York University, the Mercator Guest Professorship in the theology department at Humboldt University-Berlin).
“Does Trumpism Cross the Atlantic?” by Dr. Mabel Berezin (Distinguished Professor of Arts & Sciences in Sociology and Director of the Institute for European Studies at Cornell University).
“The Return of Trump and the Future of Global Democracy,” by Dr. Marina Nord (Postdoctoral research fellow at the V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg).
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Bios and Abstracts
Ali H. Aslan is a Washington-based Senior Journalist, Former Washington Correspondent & Columnist of Zaman Daily. Aslan, who was born in Turkey, holds a bachelor’s degree in business administration from Turkey’s prestigious Bogazici (Bosporus) University. Immediately after college, he started a 27-year journalism career at Zaman newspaper. Having assumed various duties at Zaman Istanbul headquarters including Deputy News Editor, he was assigned as Washington Correspondent of Zaman in 1997. He also wrote weekly columns for Zaman and its English language affiliate Today’s Zaman until they were forcibly taken over by Turkish government in 2016. Specialized in international relations with a focus on US, Turkey and the Middle East, Aslan’s work also appeared occasionally on US publications such as Foreign Policy and European Affairs.
It Was (Mostly) the Economy, Stupid: Explaining Trump’s Victory
Dr. Alan Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Emory College of Arts and Sciences. His research focuses on American politics, political parties, elections, and voting behavior. His current work examines party realignment in the U.S. and its impact on presidential and congressional elections.
Abstract: In my presentation, I will discuss how and why Donald Trump managed to win a decisive victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. I will argue that Trump won the election despite having a higher unfavorable than favorable rating among the electorate, being perceived as too extreme by a majority of voters and supporting unpopular policies on a number of important issues including abortion, health care and climate change. They key to Trump’s victory was that the incumbent Democratic president was deeply unpopular. Kamala Harris simply could not overcome being closely connected with that incumbent as the candidate of the president’s party and as the sitting vice-president. Nevertheless, Trump’s serious flaws as a candidate allowed Harris to outperform the normal expectations for the candidate from the incumbent party with a deeply unpopular leader.
Harris’s defeat followed a pattern that has been seen across western democracies in the aftermath of the 2020-2021 Covid pandemic—widespread discontent with high inflation and other economic problems leading to the defeat of incumbent parties of both the left and right. I will argue that claims that the 2024 election may presage a realignment of the American party system because of increased support for the Republican candidate among nonwhite voters are premature. We have seen claims like this before after the 1972, 1984, and 2004 elections and they proved incorrect. Donald Trump is likely to be as unpopular in his second term as he was in his first and Democrats should be well positioned to make gains in the 2026 midterm elections and in 2028 when Trump will be ineligible to run again.
The Role of White Evangelicals in the 2024 US Presidential Election: What We Know So Far
Dr. Marcia Pally is a Professor at New York University and has held the Mercator Professorship in the Theology Faculty at Humboldt University, Berlin. She continues to serve there as an annual guest professor and is a member of the Center for Interreligious Theology and Religious Studies and the Berlin Institute for Public Theology. In 2019-2020, she was a Fellow at the Center for Theological Inquiry (Princeton). Her recent books include: White Evangelicals and Right-wing Populism: How Did We Get Here?; From This Broken Hill I Sing to You: God, Sex, and Politics in the Work of Leonard Cohen; Commonwealth and Covenant: Economics, Politics, and Theologies of Relationality; America’s New Evangelicals: Expanding the Vision of the Common Good.
Abstract: This presentation will first review the religious and historical factors along with the current conditions that have positioned many white evangelicals for right-wing populist positions and to vote for candidates they believe hold those positions. It will then look at tallies in the US presidential and key state elections and discuss the results (i) for the US presidency, (ii) the composition of federal and state legislative and judicial bodies (iii) speculatively, US influence abroad.
Does Trumpism Cross the Atlantic?
Dr. Mabel Berezin is Distinguished Professor of Arts and Sciences in Sociology and Director of the Institute for Europeans Studies at Cornell University. She writes on challenges to democratic cohesion and solidarity in Europe and the United States. She is working on The End of Security and the Rise of Populism under contract at Oxford that examines the current global resurgence of nationalism and the populist challenge to democratic practice.
Abstract: Whether Trump wins or loses, Trumpism is with us in the United States. But to what extent does it have a transnational appeal, or to what extent does it influence right wing populists across the globe. My argument is that the political culture of the US does not translate easily to the European context. American political culture has a deeply individualist cast that makes for American exceptionalism in a good and bad way. My talk will explore American differences in light of the outcome of the presidential election. My main point will be that it will inspire and embolden some parts of the European right and not be relevant to others—except of course that everyone will have to recognize and engage diplomatically with whomever the American president is.
Explaining the US Election Outcome and Its Implications for Global Populism
Dr. Jennifer McCoy is Regent’s Professor of Political Science at Georgia State University and Nonresident Scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as well as Research Affiliate at CEU’s Democracy Institute in Budapest. She was named a 2024 Andrew Carnegie Fellow for her project, “Mitigating Pernicious Polarization through Innovative Civic Educational Interventions.” Her current book project is Depolarizing Politics with Murat Somer, under contract with Princeton University Press. Her latest volume is Polarizing Polities: A Global Threat to Democracy, co-edited with Murat Somer (2019).
Dr. McCoy’s areas of expertise include democratic resilience, democratic erosion and partisan polarization; crisis prevention and conflict resolution; democracy promotion and collective defense of democracy; election processes and international election observation; and Latin American Politics. McCoy served as Director of the Carter Center’s Americas Program (1998-2015), leading projects on democratic strengthening, mediation and dialogue, and hemispheric cooperation. She has authored or edited six books and dozens of articles.
The Return of Trump and the Future of Global Democracy
Dr. Marina Nord is a postdoctoral research fellow at the V-Dem Institute (University of Gothenburg), and a member of the German research network ‘External Democracy Promotion’. Her research focuses on explaining autocratization and democratization processes, and interplay between economic processes and political transformation. Before joining the V-Dem Institute, she worked on several research projects at the Hertie School and at the German Institute for Economic Research, where she became passionate about bridging the gap between academic research and policy domains.
Abstract: What does the outcome of the US presidential election mean for the future of global democracy? As politics has become more polarized over the last decades, the outcome of the US presidential election is perceived as increasingly high stakes for the future of democracy worldwide. This presentation will give broader context to the story of global democracy and discuss the possible implications of a second Trump administration for the future of liberalism, democratic norms, polarization, and deliberation worldwide.
