Ivaldi, Giles & Zankina, Emilia (Eds). (2023). The Impacts of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine on Right-wing Populism in Europe. European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). March 8, 2023. Brussels. https://doi.org/10.55271/rp0010
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine boiled over on February 24, 2022, as Vladimir Putin launched what the Kremlin called a “special military operation” in Ukraine. This blatant attack on Ukraine’s sovereignty sent political shockwaves across the planet, upending international markets, and triggering panic throughout Ukrainian society. In the year since, the war has claimed tens of thousands of lives and caused nearly eight million Ukrainian civilians to flee the country to find shelter in the rest of Europe while devastating Ukrainian infrastructure and wrecking the country’s economy. Thus, the war in Ukraine has been a catastrophe for Ukraine and a crisis for Europe and the world.
Beyond the borders of Ukraine, the global economy has been destabilized due to the war, and economic insecurity has become widespread. The effects of the war have hit the world as a second major shock following the COVID-19 pandemic, threatening economic recovery. In addition, the war and the sanctions imposed on Russia have caused a significant increase in prices for many raw materials, energy, intermediate goods, and transportation services, particularly affecting fuel and gas costs throughout Europe. The economic and international repercussions of the Ukraine war have dramatically changed European politics. It has also affected public opinion and created new constraints and opportunities for political actors across the spectrum, both within and outside the mainstream.
This report has examined the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the state of the pan-European populist Radical Right. Such parties are generally considered admirers of Russia and Vladimir Putin’s regime, and ties between the Kremlin and the European populist Radical Right parties have grown stronger over the last decade. Because of such ties, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has presented new challenges for radical right-wing populist parties, putting many of them under strain and forcing them to adapt to the new context produced by the war.
In this report, we have asked how such parties have navigated the new context and the impact it may have had on them. Special attention has been paid to the reactions of right-wing populist parties to this war and the political and electoral consequences of the conflict for such parties. The analysis in this report includes a total of 37 populist Radical Right parties across 12 West European and 10 East European countries, plus Turkey.
By looking first at the “supply side” of radical right-wing populist politics in the context of the Ukraine war, the report has provided an in-depth examination of the diversity of such actors’ positions vis-à-vis Russia, NATO, and the EU before the war and the different arguments and rhetoric they have used to interpret the war. The report has also examined how populist Radical Right parties have sought to exploit war-related issues for electoral gain, turning to domestic socioeconomic issues or cultural and historical legacies, calling for national sovereignty while adopting anti-elite strategies against their political opponents.
Meanwhile, turning to the “demand side” of populism, the report’s country chapters have looked at how the invasion may have affected the public perception of radical right-wing populist parties and leaders, the impact the war may have had on the popularity or electoral support for those parties, and how that support fits with the public opinion at large on the war. The report has also sought to assess the invasion’s temporary and potentially permanent effects on right-wing populist politics.
While the focus of the report was primarily on right-wing populism, national experts were also invited to look at other populist parties in their country, where deemed relevant. This was the case in countries such as Italy and France, where populists of both the Left and the Right have competed with one another in recent elections, as well as countries such as Bulgaria and Slovakia, where mainstream parties traditionally have strong pro-Russian views and positions.
In sum, by looking at both the “supply” and “demand” side of radical right-wing populism in the context of the Ukraine war across 23 European countries, this cross-national analysis provides an in-depth examination of the diversity of such actors concerning their positions vis-à-vis Russia, NATO, and the EU before the war, and the different ways in which these parties have “performed” the war in Ukraine, the type of arguments and rhetoric they used, and how they may have exploited war-related issues (e.g., energy, prices, climate, and defense).
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Please see the report as divided into 23 country chapters below.
Introduction
By Gilles Ivaldi & Emilia Zankina
The case of the Austrian Radical Right and Russia during the war in Ukraine
By Reinhard Heinisch & Diana Hofmann
The impact of the Russia–Ukraine War on ties between the Vlaams Belang in Belgium and the Putin regime
By Teun Pauwels
Pro-Russia or anti-Russia: political dilemmas and dynamics in Bulgaria in the context of the war in Ukraine
By Emilia Zankina
The repercussions of the war in Ukraine on Croatia’s Far Right
By Vassilis Petsinis
Our people first (again)! The impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the populist Radical Right in the Czech Republic
By Vlastimil Havlík & Alena Kluknavská
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on right-wing populism in Europe: The case of Denmark
By Susi Meret
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on right-wing populism in Estonia
By Mari-Liis Jakobson & Andres Kasekamp
The impact of the Russia–Ukraine War on right-wing populism in Finland
By Yannick Lahti & Emilia Palonen
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on radical right-wing populism in France
By Gilles Ivaldi
To Russia with love? German populist actors’ positions vis-a-vis the Kremlin
By Kai Arzheimer
Politicizing war: Viktor Orbán’s right-wing authoritarian populist regime and the Russian invasion of Ukraine
By Zoltán Ádám
Italy’s multiple populisms facing the Russo-Ukrainian war
By Cecilia Biancalana
The Russia-Ukraine War and right-wing populism in Latvia
By Daunis Auers
The populist Far Right in Lithuania during Russia’s war against Ukraine
By Jogilė Ulinskaitė & Rosita Garškaitė-Antonowicz
The impact of the Russia–Ukraine War on right-wing populism in Norway
By Liv Sunnercrantz
The Russia-Ukraine War and the Far Right in Portugal: Minimal impacts on the rising populist Chega party
By Afonso Biscaia & Susana Salgado
Romanian populism and transnational political mobilization
By Sorina Soare
Balancing on a pin: Serbian populists, the European Union and Russia
By Dušan Spasojević
The Russia–Ukraine War and the radicalization of political discourse in Slovakia
By Peter Učeň
The Spanish Radical Right under the shadow of the invasion of Ukraine
By Hugo Marcos-Marne
The repercussions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the populist Radical Right in Sweden
By Niklas Bolin
Disagreement among populists in the Netherlands: The diverging rhetorical and policy positions of Dutch populist Radical Right parties following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
By Chris Nijhuis, Bertjan Verbeek & Andrej Zaslove
A foreign policy litmus test: How the war in Ukraine has fuelled populist rhetoric in Erdoğan’s Turkey
By Emre Erdoğan
Conclusion
By Gilles Ivaldi & Emilia Zankina
