Professor Marlene Laruelle.

Prof. Laruelle: Liberalism Is No Longer the Only Game in Town as It Was for the Past Four Decades

Professor Marlene Laruelle argues that the contemporary challenge to liberal democracy extends far beyond electoral populism. In this wide-ranging ECPS interview, she contends that illiberalism has evolved into a substantive political project that offers alternative visions of identity, belonging, community, and political order. Rejecting the notion that liberal democracy is merely a victim of external threats, Professor Laruelle emphasizes that many illiberal movements emerge from liberalism’s own contradictions, particularly the socio-economic and cultural consequences of neoliberalism. The interview explores the future of Trumpism, Christian nationalism, Russia’s role in global ideological networks, the rise of alternative epistemic communities, and the cultural foundations of “banal illiberalism.” Despite her concerns, Professor Laruelle sees the current moment as an opportunity to rethink and renew democracy.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

Giving an interview to the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Professor Marlene Laruelle, Full Professor in the Department of Political Science at Luiss University in Rome and one of the foremost scholars of illiberalism, ideological contestation, and the global challenges facing liberal democracy, argues that contemporary politics can no longer be adequately understood through the lens of populism alone. Instead, she contends that the rise of illiberalism reflects a deeper ideological transformation—one that challenges the normative dominance liberalism has enjoyed since the end of the Cold War and forces democracies to confront fundamental questions about identity, belonging, and political community.

Drawing on her extensive scholarship on illiberalism, Russia, transnational ideological networks, and democratic contestation, Professor Laruelle maintains that “illiberalism is an alternative political project” rather than merely a reactionary or anti-democratic impulse. While populism functions as a mobilizing framework organized around the opposition between “the pure people” and “the corrupt elite,” illiberalism offers a more substantive worldview that questions the foundational assumptions of the liberal order itself. In her view, understanding why illiberalism resonates requires moving beyond electoral behavior and examining the deeper social imaginaries through which citizens seek meaning, moral order, and collective belonging.

A central theme of the interview is Professor Laruelle’s rejection of the notion that illiberalism is simply liberalism’s external adversary. Instead, she argues that “liberalism is generating its own critics from within.” The social and economic consequences of neoliberal globalization, rising inequality, cultural fragmentation, and the erosion of shared forms of citizenship have created a growing demand for political projects that promise identity, security, and community. As she notes, liberal institutions often respond through procedural neutrality and technocratic solutions, while many citizens increasingly seek “belonging” and “meaningful answers.” This mismatch, she suggests, helps explain the appeal of illiberal movements across the democratic world.

Perhaps the most striking argument advanced by Professor Laruelle concerns the durability of the illiberal challenge. Contrary to interpretations that view Trumpism, Orbánism, and related movements as temporary electoral phenomena, she argues that “the illiberal offer is here to stay.” Electoral defeats may alter political leadership, but they do not eliminate the deeper cultural narratives, moral frameworks, and social aspirations that sustain illiberal politics. Indeed, Professor Laruelle believes that contemporary democracies are entering a new era of ideological competition in which “liberalism is no longer the obvious normative answer” and “no longer the only game in town, as it was for the last 30 or 40 years.”

The interview also explores the transnational circulation of illiberal ideas, Christian nationalism and its challenge to liberal pluralism, Russia’s role as an ideological laboratory rather than a “puppet master,” the emergence of alternative epistemic communities in the digital age, and the growing importance of what Professor Laruelle calls the cultural and everyday dimensions of “banal illiberalism.” Throughout, she emphasizes that the future of liberal democracy depends not only on institutional resilience but also on its ability to recover a compelling moral and social vision.

Yet despite her sober diagnosis, Professor Laruelle concludes on a cautiously hopeful note. The current crisis of liberalism, she argues, should also be understood as an opportunity—an invitation to reopen debates about the social contract, political imagination, and the kind of democratic future citizens wish to build together.

Here is the revised version of our interview with Professor Marlene Laruelle, edited lightly to enhance clarity, readability, and overall flow for publication.

Populism Mobilizes, Illiberalism Offers a Vision

Professor Laruelle, welcome! To begin, you have argued that the concept of illiberalism increasingly offers a more useful analytical framework than populism for understanding contemporary political transformations. What does the concept of illiberalism capture that populism cannot, and why do you believe the analytical focus should shift from populist mobilization to illiberal social imaginaries?

Professor Marlene Laruelle: Populism is usually understood in the traditional literature—and there is a huge scholarship on it—as a kind of thin-centered ideology that is primarily organized around a binary opposition between the “pure people” and the “corrupt elite.” It is essentially a mobilizing format that can then be filled with different content, whether on the left or the right.

Illiberalism, by contrast, is a substantive ideological orientation. It frames itself as a challenge to the foundational pillars of the liberal order. It opposes individual rights in favor of more collective rights; it opposes procedural mechanisms in favor of a majoritarian, more executive-power vision of law and order; and it opposes pluralism in favor of a more majoritarian vision. So, it is an alternative political project that captures the current political moment much better than populism has been able to do. The two overlap in many respects, but not in everything.

What I also find interesting is that illiberalism invites us to understand its thickness. Why does it work? It is not only about who is voting for whom and why, but also about why it makes sense to so many people. Why are people looking for belonging and for a new moral order that goes against liberal norms? Illiberalism therefore invites us to revisit social imaginaries and to ask why the liberal democratic order now seems to be marked by a kind of empty social imaginary. I think that is the key question today. For me, illiberalism is the best analytical tool for exploring these questions.

Neoliberalism Produced Winners and Losers

Your work suggests that illiberalism should not be understood simply as liberalism’s external enemy but also as a product of liberalism’s own contradictions. Which failures of contemporary liberal democracies have most significantly contributed to the rise of illiberal movements across Europe and North America?

Professor Marlene Laruelle: I’m not comfortable with this idea that illiberalism has somehow happened to liberal democracy, as if liberal democracy were the victim of illiberalism. I think it’s important to see liberalism as generating its own critics from within, and there are different types of failures that have been producing illiberalism.

Usually, the literature looks at both socio-economic issues, because we have always associated liberalism with economic prosperity. Political liberalism going hand in hand with economic liberalism. Ands now we live, at least in the Western world, in societies where there is a strong feeling that neoliberalism has produced some losers. We have rising socio-economic inequality and a sense that neoliberalism has failed to produce both socio-economic progress and equality. So, that’s the first major source of criticism against liberalism.

The second is more on the cultural side. Liberal progressivism and liberal multiculturalism have been difficult for part of our citizens to receive as a form of shared citizenship. Instead, they have been perceived as a reversal of privileges, a kind of hierarchy of victim narratives. And there is a growing feeling that a shared community is disappearing.

What is also important is that, globally, we now live in a world where we have grown into highly atomized individualities within a social and media environment that has deeply fragmented our communities.

At the same time, liberalism tends to respond through procedural rights by telling us that institutions are neutral. It tells us that it is not there to define what is good and what is not good, but simply to preserve the neutrality of institutions. In a sense, this creates a kind of ideological vacuum, because it offers an answer that is primarily normative and institutional. It sounds like a technocratic answer, while people are looking for belonging and for meaningful answers. And that is what illiberal movements are providing. They offer meaningful answers that speak to identity and security, that provide a sense of purpose, while liberalism tends to respond through institutions, neutrality, and rights. This mismatch is one of the reasons it has become so difficult for liberalism to formulate responses that resonate as common sense for many people.

The Illiberal Offer Is Here to Stay

Many observers continue to interpret Trumpism, Orbánism, and similar movements primarily through the lens of electoral populism. Do these cases represent temporary populist waves, or are they manifestations of a deeper civilizational challenge to liberal modernity itself?

Professor Marlene Laruelle: In a sense, they can be both. You can have a temporary electoral wave and, at the same time, a deep—though I wouldn’t use the term civilizational—social transformation in the way people envision what makes us live together. I think we are witnessing both.

The fact that Orbán lost the election after 16 years in Hungary may indicate that a particular electoral cycle has come to an end. But that does not mean illiberalism has lost. It does not mean that what illiberalism represented has disappeared.

In the same way, Trump may lose the next election, but that would not mean that illiberalism, as a political project in its American version, will disappear. So, the electoral cycle is one thing. The deeper transformation—and the fact that this illiberal offer is now there to challenge liberalism and to argue that liberalism is no longer the obvious normative answer that there are alternative visions of the political order—is something that I believe is here to stay.

This is a long-run phenomenon that will likely remain with us for several decades. Depending on the country, there will be different forms of competition. Sometimes the liberal vision seems to prevail; at other times, the illiberal one appears to gain the upper hand. So, I think we are now living through an interregnum moment in which ideological competition has returned. Liberalism is no longer the only game in town, as it was for the last 30 or 40 years.

Most Illiberal Movements Are Homegrown

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s supporters listening to his speech in Balıkesir, Turkey on April 6,l 2017. Photo: Thomas Koch.

Together with Christophe Jaffrelot, you have emphasized the transnational dimensions of global illiberalism. To what extent are contemporary illiberal actors consciously learning from one another across borders, and how important are these transnational exchanges in sustaining illiberal politics worldwide?

Professor Marlene Laruelle: The transnational dimension is real, but it is important not to overstate it in terms of organizational coherence. I would resist the idea that there is some kind of coordinated international project, because that would be a mistake of interpretation. The majority of illiberal phenomena are homegrown, operating through local actors who are adapted to their own cultural contexts.

What we see instead is parallel evolution—parallel transformations of societies in different cultural settings that are producing parallel responses and parallel illiberal strategies. At the same time, there is coordination between these different forces through forms of selective borrowing. They look at what works, both in terms of shared narratives and shared techniques for becoming influential.

Of course, social media play a role, but the culture of podcasts, for example, also matters: the kinds of language that are used and the ways certain ideas are repackaged. Concepts such as civilizationalism, gender ideology, and cultural Marxism circulate across borders. And, of course, there is mutual support and solidarity among different illiberal leaders. So, some coordination may exist, and there is certainly intellectual and tactical borrowing. But I still think the domestic context remains the key one, and I would strongly resist the idea that everything is highly coordinated.

When you look closely, we have very often tended to overemphasize, for example, Russian influence or, more recently, Trump’s influence on developments in Europe. When you examine these cases in detail, you still find that domestic influences and domestic mechanisms are the primary drivers, with local actors exercising their own agency. External influence can certainly be present, but it is an additional layer rather than the key structural element.

For Many, Trumpism Will Be Remembered as a Golden Age

You have described Christian nationalism as one of the “deep stories” behind Trumpism. How do you assess the relationship between MAGA politics and broader illiberal trends in the United States? Has Trumpism become a durable ideological project that will outlast Donald Trump himself?

Professor Marlene Laruelle: That’s an important—indeed, a key—question. Trumpism is already a repackaging of many elements that were present on the right and far-right landscape in America long before Trump. It is a repackaging of these ideas around Trump’s personality. One can imagine that once Trump leaves the political scene, many of these elements will continue to exist. Some aspects of the Trump cult of personality may disappear, but much more will remain. Many cultural visions of the world—the conspiracy culture, the broader Americana tradition, and the culture of podcasting—will endure. They may acquire a different hero, or even multiple heroes, but they will persist. For a segment of the American constituency, the age of Trumpism will probably be remembered as a kind of golden age.

So, they may move beyond Trump himself, but they will continue to envision America as a genuine, deep America—a Christian national America fighting against cosmopolitan coastal elites. All of these elements are likely to remain. They may be repackaged, and of course their relationship to institutional democracy could undergo important transformations, but they will endure even after Trump has left the scene.

That is why thinking about the electoral cycle is important, but I do not think it is the most strategic consideration. Even on the day Trump loses an election, I do not think Trumpism as a political culture will disappear.

Christian Nationalism Rejects Neutral Pluralism

A Trump flag waves at a pier on Coden Beach in Coden, Alabama, on June 9, 2024. The flag bears the slogan, “Jesus is my Savior. Trump is my President.” Photo: Carmen K. Sisson.

In your recent work, you argue that Christian nationalism has evolved into an illiberal interpretation of religion. What makes contemporary Christian nationalism particularly consequential for liberal democracy, and how does it differ from more traditional forms of religious conservatism?

Professor Marlene Laruelle: What has been happening in the US with Christian nationalism is precisely that it has become politicized. It is no longer primarily about defending religious practices or institutional church interests; it is really about asserting a kind of civilizational claim over the public order. The claim is that America is a Christian nation and, therefore, that liberal pluralism cannot be neutral. If it is neutral, then it is hostile to the real identity of America. Consequently, the public order, the institutions, and the Constitution must be Christian in order to be in tune, in sync, with the country’s true identity. So, this is fundamentally an illiberal claim because it rejects the liberal premise of equal citizenship regardless of religious identity.

The other element that is really important for understanding Christian nationalism is that it essentializes political conflict. It gives a political-theological reading to every political struggle. If every political conflict is understood as a theological battle between Good and Evil—with capital letters—then, in a sense, you are pushing for your opponents to be defeated in a dramatic way, even through violence, because they represent Evil with a capital E.

So, it is really a way of essentializing political conflict and refusing any form of compromise. In that sense, it runs counter not only to liberalism but even to the basic requirements of a functional democracy. In that respect, it represents a major transformation of American political culture. Even if these elements were always present, they have now assumed a much larger dimension under the Trump administration.

Russia Amplifies More Than It Creates

Western discussions often focus on Russian military power or disinformation campaigns. Yet your scholarship points to Russia’s role as a producer and exporter of illiberal narratives. How should we understand Russia’s place within the global ecosystem of illiberal ideas today?

Professor Marlene Laruelle: I have indeed been working on this issue for years. I do not like the image of Russia as the puppet master behind all illiberal forces in Europe or the United States. Rather, I think Russia has been an incredibly productive ideological laboratory for illiberal ideas since the 1990s, for several reasons linked to the collapse of the Soviet Union. 

Russia has also functioned as a kind of legitimizing mirror. For many illiberal actors, it offered an example of developments they admired: the assertion of civilizational identity, the strong leader, the macho image embodied by Putin, and the narrative of traditional values. All of these elements helped illiberal forces in Europe and the United States feel validated in their own beliefs.

At the same time, I do not think Russia was the only model. For years, Orbán also played a similar role, embodying developments that other illiberal leaders hoped to see emerge in their own countries.

For me, it is important to understand Russia first as a precursor in articulating narratives around sovereignty, civilizationalism, traditional values, and multipolarity. Of course, Eurasianism carries its own distinctive identity and civilizational brand.

Russia should also be seen as a mirror through which illiberal forces could gain confidence in their own vision and seek different forms of support—whether through media recognition, political recognition, or, at times, financial recognition.

However, I do not subscribe to the puppet-master narrative, because I do not believe Russia created the majority of these illiberal forces. It amplifies and validates them, but, as I have emphasized, most of them are local actors with their own agency.

Russian Influence Thrives Through Decentralization

In your work on Russia’s “entrepreneurs of influence,” you challenge simplistic assumptions about centralized Kremlin control. How does this more decentralized model of ideological influence alter our understanding of how illiberal narratives travel across borders?

Professor Marlene Laruelle: Russia has been very effective precisely because it was, or has been for a very long time, a weak and relatively poor state. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia operated through a highly decentralized strategy of rebuilding influence. It allowed various ideological influencers and entrepreneurs of influence to experiment with what could work in the media sphere, in forms of hybrid—or so-called hybrid—or asymmetric warfare, and in the creation of networks of support. 

This decentralization is actually what makes Russian influence more resilient, because it does not depend on a single channel that can be shut down. Instead, it creates a diffuse ideological ecosystem that is much harder to counter. Of course, the research you are referring to was conducted before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since 2022, things have changed considerably, and there has been a much greater closure of the Russian influence system, which has become far more centralized.

That said, if we look at how Russia continues to influence the broader contrarian ideological ecosystem, it still operates through multiple narratives. Russia has the capacity to produce narratives that resonate not only with the European far right but also with some of the contrarian leftist voices in Europe and the United States. It can speak to Muslim constituencies in the Middle East. It can appeal to anti-neocolonial forces in Africa. It can resonate with traditional anti-imperial movements in Latin America. It can also connect with more classic post-communist constituencies in countries such as Vietnam or China.

So, Russia still possesses this ability to frame a contrarian identity in different political and cultural languages, and that capacity remains intact. Of course, each of these audiences is relatively niche. But when all of these niches are taken together, they still constitute a significant network of influence.

Illiberalism Travels Through Demand, Not Design

Your research with Erica Marat argues that China and Russia often act less as exporters of illiberalism than as enablers of pre-existing domestic trends. How should we rethink the relationship between external authoritarian influence and indigenous sources of democratic backsliding?

Professor Marlene Laruelle: Indeed, that is the subject of a book that will be published in a few months by Cornell University Press, titled A Farewell to Liberalism. In it, we examine six countries that have received what we call services for illiberal governance from Russia and China—whether technological services from China or more industrial, economic, and informational support from Russia.

What we try to demonstrate is that the existing literature often interprets these dynamics as cases of Russia and China exporting illiberalism or authoritarianism. Our argument, however, is that local actors are the ones deciding both the level of influence they wish to receive and the specific kinds of imports they are willing to accept from Russia and China. These choices depend on how they position themselves vis-à-vis the West and on how they manage their relationships with domestic civil society and political opposition.

So, this is fundamentally a book about the demand side of so-called democratic backsliding. It seeks to restore agency to local actors and to show that the spread of illiberal values around the world is far more a locally driven process of demand than the product of some grand design orchestrated by Russia and China. We need to restore agency to local actors and recognize that they selectively take from Russia, from China, but also from the United States, whatever they believe serves their interests and needs.

In that sense, the book offers a different reading of the international system—one that is deeply transactional in nature. Countries increasingly pursue strategies of multi-alignment, taking a little from Russia, a little from China, a little from the West, and a little from the United States, while creating their own room for maneuver by playing the great powers against one another.

Russia Was a Model of Successful Illiberalism

The head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill and Russian President Vladimir Putin as they attended a ceremony celebrating the 1025 anniversary of the Baptism of Kievan Rus in Kiev, Ukraine on July, 27, 2013. Photo: Shutterstock.

Across Europe and beyond, segments of the radical right have long expressed admiration for Putin’s Russia. What explains this attraction, and how has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine altered—or failed to alter—these ideological affinities?

Professor Marlene Laruelle: Russia was indeed, for a long time, a highly successful model for many European far-right movements, although there were always important nuances. For far-right actors in countries bordering Russia—such as Finland, Romania, Poland, and others with a long experience of Russian domination—the attitude was never particularly Russophile but rather Russophobic.

For much of the Western European far right, however, Russia was seen as a model of a successful illiberal political project: a strong state, sovereignty, the defense of traditional gender and family norms, openly Christian values, anti-globalism, and nationalism. It was a package that resonated with many Western far-right actors and was regarded as genuinely inspiring.

As I mentioned, Orbán’s Hungary also emerged as an alternative model that many found attractive. Already after 2014, it became apparent that, for many Western and American far-right actors, Hungary represented a more appealing model than Russia because it was perceived as less controversial.

After 2022, however, many of these far-right actors were forced to renegotiate how they framed their relationship with Russia. In most cases, they toned down their association with Russia, adopted a more nuanced position, and reframed their interpretation of the conflict. This did not necessarily mean becoming openly pro-Ukrainian. Rather, it meant arguing that too much money should not be spent on Ukraine’s defense or that Russia had its own reasons for launching the invasion.

Each country, depending on its cultural context and the political room for maneuver available to its far-right leaders, adjusted its narrative accordingly. An interesting case is Giorgia Meloni in Italy. She represents a good example of an illiberal leader who has consistently been pro-Western, pro-NATO, and anti-Russian. So, there was always diversity within the broader illiberal camp.

Since 2022, we have indeed witnessed a growing line of division. Some radical far-right groups have become openly pro-Ukrainian, with some individuals even going to fight on the Ukrainian side. Others have continued to maintain a pro-Russian position. The key dividing factor lies in how these actors interpret the broader geopolitical and civilizational divide. Either they adopt a pro-Western orientation, or they embrace a more multipolar worldview. That distinction largely explains whether they take a pro-Ukrainian or a pro-Russian stance.

Shared Rhetoric Masks Deep Geopolitical Differences

Your work on France, Italy, Hungary, and Serbia reveals important geopolitical divisions within the far right. Has the war in Ukraine fragmented the transnational far-right movement, or has it merely reshaped existing cleavages between nationalist actors?

Professor Marlene Laruelle: Indeed, the geopolitical dimension has always generated tensions among different far-right groups, precisely because some have been perceived as too openly pro-Russian, while others have been viewed as too favorable to NATO. These tensions have always been present. If we look, for example, at the way far-right groups have operated in the European Parliament, the geopolitical line of division has consistently been an important factor.

I think this dynamic has been partly reshaped since Trump’s re-election in January 2025, because the relationship with the United States suddenly became part of the equation, not just the relationship with Russia. One of the key questions now concerns attitudes toward Trump: to what extent do Western and Central European far-right actors want to support the United States, and to what extent do they feel the need to distance themselves from it?

We saw this clearly when Trump made very aggressive claims regarding Greenland. There were significant differences among European illiberal leaders in how they interpreted their relationship with Trump. So, the geopolitical line of division is now no longer only about Russia; it also concerns the United States. 

At the same time, what we see emerging is that many of these actors have adopted a narrative that largely originated in the United States: the idea of Western civilization. Whatever their differences, there is a shared belief that Western civilization must be defended. Of course, this notion of Western civilization can have different boundaries and imply different relationships with Russia. But these actors are trying to construct a kind of empty signifier that is flexible enough to provide them with a common geopolitical narrative. In reality, however, they continue to hold quite diverse geopolitical perspectives.

Culture Matters as Much as Politics

The Indian Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, is pictured with the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, and the President of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, in Goa, India on May 25, 2019. Photo: Shutterstock.

You have shown that illiberal ideas circulate not only through parties and governments but also through novels, media personalities, intellectuals, and cultural networks. Are liberal democracies underestimating the cultural dimension of illiberal diffusion?

Professor Marlene Laruelle: Yes, that is something I feel very strongly about. We have looked at illiberalism too much through the lenses of institutions, elections, and disinformation, and in doing so, we have often overlooked the fact that illiberal values circulate through culture. By culture, I mean fiction, music, films, festivals, and the broader wave of patriotism and rediscovery of national or regional histories. Historical reenactments, lifestyles, food habits, clothing, body language, wellness, and health issues all play a role. Especially after COVID, everything related to health and the body became particularly important.

I think many of these elements contribute to shaping both liberal and illiberal cultures. If you look at the vast world of podcasters and influencers, many illiberal voices are not talking about politics in the narrow sense of institutions and parties. They are talking about ways of life. For me, this is the new frontier of research that we need to explore: what I would call ‘banal illiberalism’.

In much the same way that Michael Billig’s concept of banal nationalism captured the everyday, often aestheticized expressions of national identity, we need a concept that captures the everyday expression of a worldview infused with illiberal values. This is important because once illiberal values become embedded in lived experience, they cannot be countered through factchecking alone. The issue is no longer simply one of disinformation or misinformation. It is much more complex than that. It concerns the way people interpret the world and responding to that requires an entirely different set of tools from those we have spent the past decade developing to combat disinformation.

Fact-Checking Misses the Deeper Problem

To what extent have digital platforms enabled the construction of alternative epistemic communities in which illiberal narratives can flourish independently of traditional gatekeepers, experts, and mainstream media?

Professor Marlene Laruelle: That’s a good example of what I was saying. These digital platforms are indeed creating communities with their own authorities, their own validation procedures, and their own sense of what counts as credible evidence. That is why it becomes increasingly difficult to find ways of talking to one another. We find ourselves in a kind of post-trust system in which we have lost a common language for determining what is true and what is not, as well as a shared set of tools for deciding what constitutes reality.

Once you lose this common epistemic ground, it becomes very difficult to rebuild anything collectively. That is why I think factchecking and platform regulation can be useful, but they miss the deeper dynamic. And that deeper dynamic is probably the need to find ways of rebuilding communities that live together. I say that fully aware that it is much easier said than done. But I do think we are now functioning within increasingly closed epistemic worlds, and that reality needs to be taken very seriously.

Moreover, this tendency is likely to intensify as artificial intelligence further separates different perspectives on the world. Each of us may end up living in a more closed informational environment because AI will increasingly read and interpret the world for us in highly individualized ways. So, this is one of the major challenges we face because it directly affects the question of how democracy can survive. If each of us experiences a different reality, then the fundamental question becomes: what do we still share?

Liberalism Must Recover a Moral Language

If illiberalism reflects genuine social grievances and not merely manipulation or disinformation, can liberal democracies successfully counter it through institutional reforms alone, or must they also offer a new moral and cultural narrative capable of inspiring citizens?

Professor Marlene Laruelle: I belong to the group of people who believe that institutional answers alone will not be enough. Everything associated with institutional neutrality—the proceduralism of liberalism—has, to a large extent, lost credibility. It has become associated with technocracy, neoliberalism, depoliticization, and forms of elite control. So, I think that if liberalism is to succeed, it will need to be willing to make substantive normative claims about solidarity, social justice, dignity, and community, rather than relying solely on procedural principles.

Of course, that would be a challenging move and would inevitably create tensions within liberalism itself. But I do not think there is another way for liberalism to answer the fundamental questions people are asking: Why do we want to live together, and what do we want to share together? 

I also think liberalism will need to be willing to engage with the other side and recognize that it is no longer the only political offer on the table. Alternative political projects exist, and liberalism needs to accept being in dialogue with them, even if it tends to regard them as illegitimate.

At the same time, liberalism needs to have a very deep internal conversation about its relationship with neoliberalism. Many of the socio-economic tensions it faces today are rooted in the current political economy.

So, if liberalism is to be rescued, it will have to find a way to loosen or sever its relationship with neoliberalism, one way or another. It is a very difficult discussion, but I believe it is one that liberalism must be willing to confront if it hopes to survive.

The Firewall Strategy May Be Backfiring

Many governments have responded to illiberal challenges through regulation, fact-checking initiatives, and restrictions on foreign influence. Are these defensive measures sufficient, or do they risk reinforcing the very anti-elite narratives that fuel illiberal mobilization?

Professor Marlene Laruelle: That is a difficult question. These measures may sometimes be necessary, but they tend to backfire in the majority of cases. In a sense, they arrive too late. I am thinking, for example, of the election in Romania or the strategy of the firewall against certain European far-right parties—the idea that everyone should unite and vote against them in order to prevent them from gaining access to power. These parties have now become so strong that we may have passed the point at which such firewall strategies could still be effective. I wonder whether they are now primarily backfiring by creating the impression that democracy is refusing to give these actors a voice and refusing to accommodate them.

Of course, if you are a voter of a far right or illiberal party, you may feel that you are being denied the opportunity to test that political offer. As a result, we are caught in a kind of vicious circle that will be very difficult to break. We can see this in the debates surrounding the possibility of banning the AfD in Germany as an extremist party, or in the discussions in France about whether Marine Le Pen should be prevented from running for office. 

These examples illustrate the tensions that are emerging. The tension between democratic legitimacy and a justice system that operates according to its own form of legitimacy is becoming increasingly difficult to manage. Liberalism has traditionally been about managing such tensions. But once liberalism loses credibility, the relationship between democracy and justice itself becomes the problem.

The Illiberal Challenge Is Also an Opportunity

And lastly, Professor Laruelle, looking ahead, do you believe we are witnessing a temporary period of turbulence within liberal democracy, or the emergence of a genuinely post-liberal era in which illiberalism becomes a durable and legitimate alternative model of political order?

Professor Marlene Laruelle: I’m both optimistic and pessimistic. I think the illiberal offer is here to stay for a long time, and we should accept that reality. In a sense, we should view it as an opportunity to reinvent democracy. I am among those who believe that liberalism, as we have experienced it, has reached its limits and has, in many ways, been living off a kind of inherited rent that had become largely empty. What we are witnessing today is an opportunity to renew democracy in a deeper and more meaningful sense.

We should therefore see this moment as a chance to reopen fundamental debates: What kind of social contract do we want? What kind of vision do we have for the future? What kind of political imagination do we want to build together? On that level, I am optimistic. I think it depends on us to seize this opportunity and to put the big questions back on the table.

At the same time, I am pessimistic because I do not think this process will be easy. The challenges are enormous. We are facing multiple crises simultaneously, and the difficulties before us are profound. We are likely to experience several years, perhaps even decades, of turbulent and difficult times. Yet this remains a unique opportunity. In a sense, we have no alternative but to take up the challenge and confront it. So, despite everything, I want to remain optimistic.

Thomas de Waal,

Thomas de Waal: European Support for Armenia Must Be an Endorsement of Process, Not Personality

In this ECPS interview, Thomas de Waal, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe and one of the leading scholars of the South Caucasus, examines Armenia’s post-Karabakh transformation following the 2026 parliamentary elections. Reflecting on Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s renewed mandate, de Waal explores the interplay between populist leadership, democratic resilience, geopolitical diversification, and regional peacebuilding. While describing Pashinyan’s political style as remaining “very populist,” he argues that Armenia’s long-term democratic future depends less on charismatic leadership than on the strength of institutions. The interview discusses Armenia’s evolving relationship with Russia, prospects for normalization with Azerbaijan and Turkey, the role of the European Union, and the challenges of constructing a new national identity after the end of the Karabakh era.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

The South Caucasus is undergoing one of the most consequential geopolitical transformations since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Armenia’s devastating defeat in the 2020 war, the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, Russia’s declining credibility as a security guarantor, and the emergence of new opportunities for regional connectivity have collectively reshaped the country’s strategic outlook. At the center of this transformation stands Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, whose government has sought to redefine Armenia’s foreign policy, normalize relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, and deepen ties with Europe and the United States. Yet these developments raise profound questions about democratic resilience, institutional consolidation, populist leadership, and the risks of excessive personalization in periods of political transition.

To explore these issues, we spoke with Thomas de Waal, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe and one of the foremost scholars of the South Caucasus. Through influential works such as Black Garden and decades of research on conflict, democratization, and regional geopolitics, de Waal has established himself as one of the most authoritative interpreters of the region’s complex political landscape.

The interview comes in the wake of Armenia’s June 2026 parliamentary elections, in which Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party secured a renewed mandate. While many observers interpreted the result as a geopolitical endorsement of Armenia’s movement away from Russia and toward Europe, de Waal offers a more nuanced assessment. The election, he argues, was simultaneously “a kind of referendum” on peace with Azerbaijan and Turkey, on Armenia’s foreign-policy diversification, and on Pashinyan’s domestic record. Rather than representing a simple choice between Russia and the West, Armenia’s evolving strategy reflects what de Waal describes as a broader effort to avoid renewed dependence on any single patron.

A central theme of this conversation concerns the relationship between democratic resilience and personalized leadership. Although de Waal describes Armenia as remaining “a democratic country, if a flawed one,” he warns that troubling trends should not be ignored. In particular, he notes that Armenia’s democratic checks and balances remain weak internally, making external democratic conditionality from Europe and, to a lesser extent, the United States especially important.

It is in this context that de Waal offers one of the interview’s most important observations. Drawing lessons from Georgia’s post-Rose Revolution trajectory, he cautions Western governments against treating Armenia as a geopolitical project centered on a single leader. While welcoming unprecedented European attention to Armenia, he warns that such support can unintentionally reinforce personalized rule. As he puts it, international engagement can “feed the ego of a leader who may begin to feel that he can do no wrong.” Consequently, he argues that “this is not a personal endorsement of one man; it is a broader endorsement of a process,” emphasizing that any durable democratic transformation “needs to be grounded in institutions rather than in personalized government.”

The conversation also examines Armenia’s changing relationship with Russia, the prospects for peace with Azerbaijan, the strategic significance of the TRIPP corridor, Turkey’s role in regional normalization, the growing gap between diaspora nationalism and domestic political realities, and the long-term challenge of forging a new Armenian identity after the end of the Karabakh era.

In an era marked by democratic backsliding, geopolitical fragmentation, and the return of great-power competition, de Waal offers a measured and deeply informed assessment of Armenia’s uncertain future. His reflections remind us that democratic resilience depends not merely on elections or charismatic leaders, but on the gradual construction of institutions capable of surviving political transitions and geopolitical shocks alike.

Here is the revised version of our interview with Thomas de Waal, edited lightly to enhance clarity, readability, and overall flow for publication.

Armenians Endorsed Pashinyan’s Vision Despite the Karabakh Trauma

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan arrives for a meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council (EAEU) in Yerevan, Armenia, on November 19, 2021. Photo: Dreamstime.

Thomas de Waal, welcome! To begin, Armenia’s 2026 election has been widely interpreted as a public endorsement of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s strategic reorientation away from Russia and toward Europe. Do you see the result primarily as a geopolitical choice, a democratic mandate for peace, or a vote of confidence in Pashinyan’s leadership despite the trauma of Nagorno-Karabakh?

Thomas de Waal: This election was many things at once. Obviously, like all elections, it had its domestic aspects. The Armenian economy has been doing quite well in recent years, so that was one reason Mr. Pashinyan secured a third term in office. But, as you say, it was also a kind of referendum on his vision of peace with Azerbaijan and Turkey, following through on the peace agreement and recognizing Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, which basically means saying goodbye to Nagorno-Karabakh.

It was also a referendum on his foreign policy, which has been slightly misinterpreted as a complete shift from reliance on Russia to the West. I would say it is more of a diversification policy, maintaining some connections with Russia, particularly economic ones. Armenia remains, for example, part of the Eurasian Economic Union, while also strengthening its political and economic ties with both Europe and the United States.

So, he won a mandate, albeit with a reduced number of votes compared to last time. We can discuss why it was the case.Pro-Russian parties also performed better than they did previously, but again, not well enough to prevent him from securing a full mandate. Mr. Pashinyan’s party, Civil Contract, received around 50 percent of the vote, while the pro-Russian opposition parties won around 37–38 percent.

Pashinyan’s Style Remains Populist, but His Political Base Has Changed

Pashinyan emerged from the 2018 Velvet Revolution as an anti-establishment reformer challenging entrenched elites. Does he still fit within the broader category of populist leadership, or has his project evolved into something fundamentally different as he has shifted from revolutionary mobilization to statecraft?

Thomas de Waal: It’s a very interesting question. His style remains very populist. He is very much a man of the street. He came to power, as you mentioned, in 2018 on the wave of street protest—people’s protest—what Armenians then called the Velvet Revolution of 2018. He likes talking to crowds, dresses informally, and travels on the Yerevan Metro. He has a very personal, personalized style of government, which is also a bit problematic.

But, for sure, he no longer appeals to the younger urban electorate that swept him to power in 2018. In this election, he cast himself very much as the stability candidate—the candidate for peace rather than war, for continuity rather than change. He actually received support from outside the capital city, Yerevan, including from villages and government workers—the kind of constituencies from which a traditional ruling party in the post-socialist world typically draws its support.

Armenia Remains Democratic, but There Are Worrying Trends

In your recent writings, you describe Armenia as the most democratic state in the South Caucasus while simultaneously warning about Pashinyan’s highly personalized style of governance. How should scholars reconcile democratic resilience with concerns about excessive personalization of political power?

Thomas de Waal: This is a tricky issue. Armenia certainly remains a democratic country, albeit a flawed one. There is a fairly free and competitive media. There were, obviously, problems with this election, but voters definitely had a choice and could vote freely for the opposition, which many of them did. This is in contrast to Georgia, which we always considered the most democratic and pluralist country in the region, but which has experienced a rapid decline over the last two or three years, with many people in jail and so on. 

What I am talking about here is more of a concern about trends. For example, several opposition candidates were detained during the election. Some faced allegations of vote-buying and so on, but others were detained with less justification. The main opposition leader was under house arrest for the duration of the election. Mr. Pashinyan also makes some quite fierce remarks about the opposition, saying that they need to know their place. 

So, what we are looking at is actually something similar to what we used to have in Georgia: a moderately democratic government where the checks and balances are not so much internal, because the judiciary is still very weak and under government control. Instead, the checks and balances are external. It is the conditionality we are seeing from Europe in particular, and to some degree from the United States, that will check what could otherwise become a tendency toward less democratic and more personalized rule on the part of Prime Minister Pashinyan.

The Georgian Experience Offers an Important Warning for Armenia

Mikheil Saakashvili addresses supporters during a political rally in central Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, on September 21, 2017. Photo: Surov Dmytro / Dreamstime.

You have cautioned Europe against treating Armenia as a geopolitical project centered on a single leader. How serious is the risk that Western support for Pashinyan could inadvertently reproduce the mistakes made in other post-Soviet democracies, where institution-building lagged behind leader-centered reform?

Thomas de Waal: For sure, this is an issue, and it is not an easy one to deal with. We have the example of Georgia in the mid-2000s. There was also a peaceful revolution led by a young, charismatic leader. There are some obvious parallels there: Mikheil Saakashvili and the Rose Revolution in Georgia in 2003. What followed, however, was both a highly personalized regime in Georgia—where you can clearly see the parallels—and a gradual retreat from democratic norms. Because of the geopolitical stance that Saakashvili adopted, namely joining Western institutions in opposition to Russia, he received very enthusiastic support, particularly from the United States. In the process, some of the more problematic aspects of his government were overlooked. So, I think there is a lesson there.

Fortunately, some of Armenia’s European partners, the French in particular, understand these issues. We have seen unprecedented European attention focused on Armenia, first at the European Political Community Summit in Yerevan and then at the EU summit in May. That is obviously a positive development. And it was not only European leaders who attended—we also saw Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy there.

That is all good, but such attention can also feed the ego of a leader who may begin to feel that he can do no wrong. So, it is important to convey the message that this is not a personal endorsement of one man; it is a broader endorsement of a process. And if that process is to endure, it needs to be grounded in institutions rather than in personalized government.

The South Caucasus Is More Complex Than a Russia–West Contest

Many observers have described Armenia’s election as a contest between competing geopolitical orientations. Yet you have characterized the South Caucasus as a “geopolitical marketplace” rather than a binary struggle between Russia and the West. How does this framework alter conventional understandings of regional politics?

Thomas de Waal: There is a paradigm that you see in some of the Western media, where Armenia is portrayed as making a pivot to the West. Certainly, the Russian way of thinking is also very zero-sum and binary. President Putin actually said that Armenia should hold a referendum on whether it chooses the Eurasian Economic Union or the European Union. Prime Minister Pashinyan does not want that. He does not want to make that choice. He wants a diversification strategy. The Eurasian Economic Union has actually been very helpful to Armenia during the Ukraine war because Russia needed its traditional economic partners when its economic links with the West were cut off.

For those reasons, if he has a choice—and perhaps the Russians will force him to make one—Mr. Pashinyan is looking not only to the European Union and the United States, but also to India as a partner. India is selling weapons to Armenia, and you see many Indian guest workers in the country. The Gulf states are another option, as are countries such as Kazakhstan.

What Mr. Pashinyan rightly says is that what led Armenia to military defeat and isolation was its sole reliance on one patron, namely Russia. Russia became the security patron, with its border guards and military base; the economic patron, owning large parts of the economy; and also the energy patron, because Armenia is reliant on Russian gas. Around 90 percent of its gas comes from Russia.

For all those reasons, Armenia was relying on a partner that turned out to be unreliable. And I think one reason why he continues to enjoy support from the population, despite all the other issues they may have with him, is that he is the only one articulating that vision—that Armenia should not return to sole reliance on Russia.

Threatening Armenia May Further Weaken Moscow’s Position

Russia’s attempts to influence Armenian politics appear increasingly overt, ranging from economic pressure to disinformation campaigns. Does the Kremlin’s approach toward Armenia represent a broader transformation in how Russia manages its influence in the post-Soviet space?

Thomas de Waal: Objectively, Russia is not doing very well if you look at recent elections. Take Moldova last year. Hungary is a bit further afield, but they were clearly betting on Prime Minister Orbán there as well. So, Russia is not doing particularly well in its attempts to influence electoral politics. You could say that securing 36–37 percent of the vote through a group of parties in Armenia was not a bad result. But this is also a country in which many people are economically reliant on Russia, so some level of support is to be expected.

Russia’s problem is that it has responded to the Pashinyan government by threatening economic punishment. That is more likely to alienate voters than encourage them to wish they were closer to Russia. We have seen bans on agricultural exports and various others rather threatening statements coming from Moscow.

The Russian elite faces a choice. Does it adopt the kind of neo-imperialist stance we see in Ukraine—the idea that it must plant the flag and that countries essentially belong to Russia or to its sphere of influence? Or does it seek to get the best out of a partnership with a sovereign state, one based on economic cooperation, which of course works both ways? If Russia is banning imports from Armenia, that is not only bad for Armenia; it is also not good for Russia. And, we can see elements of both approaches in Russian policy toward Armenia: the more emotional one and the more pragmatic one.

I would like to think that, with Russia focused on other priorities and deeply preoccupied with its confrontation with the West and the war in Ukraine, it simply does not have the time or capacity for a neo-imperialist push toward Armenia. Instead, it may ultimately default to the previous relationship—perhaps not a happy one, but a relatively pragmatic one.

Most Armenians Want New Partnerships Without Severing Old Ones

Yerevan.
Souvenir T-shirts displayed at a market in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, on July 5, 2017. Photo: Matyas Rehak / Dreamstime.

You have said that most Armenians seek diversification rather than divorce from Russia. How sustainable is Armenia’s current balancing strategy, especially given its economic dependence on Russia and its growing political engagement with the European Union?

Thomas de Waal: Obviously, the plan of this ruling party, now returned to office, is to continue pursuing this course. Whether it can do so successfully depends, really, on what Russia decides to do. Will Russia, for example, choose to inflict economic punishment on Armenia? We have seen previous instances of Russia attempting this with Georgia and Moldova. In both cases, there was short-term pain, with people losing their jobs and facing economic hardship. But, ultimately, it accelerated a process of economic diversification.

Armenia’s situation is more complicated. I think Armenia is more economically reliant on Russia. But this is also a question for Armenia’s partners, especially the European Union, in terms of whether they are willing and able to provide financial assistance.

It is also a question for Azerbaijan and Turkey. If the border opens—particularly the border with Turkey—that would provide Armenia with significantly more economic options. Such a development would also be beneficial for eastern Turkey. So, this issue of Armenia’s relationship with Russia really puts the spotlight on Ankara in particular. What kind of policy, and what kind of relationship, does Turkey want to have with Armenia?

The Message of Peace Has Resonated More Than Many Expected

The trauma of Nagorno-Karabakh continues to shape Armenian politics. To what extent has Pashinyan successfully reframed the loss of Karabakh as a foundation for a new national project rather than a symbol of national humiliation?

Thomas de Waal: This depends on which Armenians you’re talking to, obviously. For almost 40 years, going back to the late 1980s, the Armenians of Karabakh and the Karabakh cause were a kind of central idea for Armenians: the belief that Karabakh had been unjustly given to Azerbaijan in the 1920s and should instead be part of Soviet Armenia or, later, independent Armenia. The war of the 1990s was fought with Azerbaijan on that basis and was won by Armenia, which held on to Karabakh at great cost. Then, in 2020 and again in 2023, Azerbaijan used military force to recover the territories it had lost and, in 2023, to take over Karabakh entirely, causing the exodus of the entire Karabakh Armenian population of around 100,000 people.

The question, then, was how Armenians would respond to what was obviously a huge trauma. Many people expected, particularly in the Armenian diaspora, that voters would punish Pashinyan for his handling of the issue. But actually, what we see now is that Karabakh had a kind of dual meaning for Armenians in the Republic of Armenia. On the one hand, it was indeed a very important holy cause. On the other hand, it was also a millstone around their necks. It was a reason why sons and brothers went to fight and sometimes lost their lives. It was a reason why borders were closed. It was a drain on the economy. It was a problem internationally for Armenia. 

So, to many people’s surprise, after losing Karabakh and hearing Pashinyan’s message that now that this place had been lost, Armenia needed to move on, many Armenians actually responded cautiously but positively. And he has consistently hammered home the message that there is no alternative—that Armenia must make peace with its neighbors, and that peace means no more war. I think that message resonates with a large part of the electorate, if not all of it. Certainly not all of it, but it does resonate with a large part of it.

The Constitution Has Become a Powerful Instrument of Political Leverage

Azerbaijan insists that Armenia amend its constitution before a final peace agreement can be concluded. Do you see this demand primarily as a legitimate security concern, a diplomatic bargaining tool, or a mechanism for maintaining leverage over Armenia’s domestic political trajectory?

Thomas de Waal: That’s a great question. When you talk to Azerbaijani officials, they are very insistent on this issue. The reference is actually quite indirect, but it is there. The current Armenian constitution refers to the Declaration of Independence, and the Declaration of Independence from 1990 refers to the union of Armenia and Karabakh. So, the Azerbaijani position is essentially that Armenia should not have a constitution which, even indirectly, constitutes a territorial claim over Azerbaijan. They want to see proof that the people of Armenia are rejecting any territorial claim over Karabakh, and therefore they want to see a new constitution.

You can see the logic of that argument, but it is not something that people had particularly noticed before. It is definitely being used as an instrument of leverage over the Armenian government—a way of signaling that Armenia should not ask for too much and that Azerbaijan still retains this instrument of pressure. The problem we have now is that Mr. Pashinyan’s party has won around 64 out of 101 seats, and he needs a few more than that to secure a constitutional majority. He needs two-thirds of the seats in parliament to call a referendum on a new constitution. That now looks pretty difficult.

We should also note that even if a referendum were called, there appears to be considerable opposition to it within Armenia. So it is quite possible that, even if he somehow managed to initiate a referendum, the voters would reject it. So, the question becomes this: Azerbaijan has made this a prerequisite for signing a peace agreement and moving forward. How do we get out of this particular impasse?

This issue is currently under active discussion in all sorts of places—in Baku, Ankara, Yerevan, Europe, and the United States. Some people are suggesting that perhaps a signed peace agreement is not immediately necessary. Instead, the parties could move forward on practical measures. They could, for example, open the border. Many things could be done without establishing formal diplomatic relations, which would normally follow from a peace agreement.

This is particularly a question for Turkey. For many reasons, Turkish officials want to normalize relations with Armenia and open the border. They believe they have a uniquely useful partner in Prime Minister Pashinyan, and they see a window of opportunity while Russia is distracted—a window that may eventually close. I hope we will see a greater sense of urgency on the Turkish side, given that Ankara has largely outsourced its decision-making on this issue to Azerbaijan.

Two of my colleagues—and their commentary is well worth reading—Garo Paylan, the well-known former parliamentarian and Armenian-Turkish citizen now based in the United States, and Alper Coşkun, a former Turkish diplomat who is also with us in the United States, wrote a commentary last week that I would strongly recommend. Their argument is that Turkey should move forward, in particular by enabling trade with Armenia, even if the political issues have not yet been fully resolved.

Peace Agreements Endure Only When Societies Embrace Them

You have repeatedly emphasized that peace agreements require societal buy-in, not merely elite bargains. Given the deep historical grievances and mutual distrust between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, how fragile is the current peace process beneath its diplomatic successes?

Thomas de Waal: There is a well-known finding among scholars of peace processes: roughly half of all peace agreements fail within five years. The agreements that fail are generally those that lack societal buy-in and broader inclusion, and are instead negotiated exclusively at the elite level. When elite calculations change, those agreements can quickly unravel.

I am fairly optimistic, in general, about the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan for two reasons. First, both societies are tired of conflict. They do not want their sons and brothers to fight. Second, there is now a significant level of engagement from both the United States and Europe. The projected rail route connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenia even bears Donald Trump’s name. It is called the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), which suggests a degree of personal investment in the success of a peace agreement.

What worries me, however, is the possibility that we will not achieve a properly signed agreement and that societies—particularly Azerbaijani society—will continue to receive highly propagandistic messages about Armenians through schools and the media. If that continues, progress will inevitably slow. Even if there is meaningful progress in the short term, over the next few years, the political landscape could look very different in five or ten years’ time. I do not think we will return to full-scale war. But there could still be recurring tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan around the border, around the so-called Trump Route, and on other issues, simply because societies have not been brought along at the same pace as their leaders.

TRIPP Could Transform Geography Into Economic Interdependence

Donald J. Trump, the 47th President of the United States, at his inauguration celebration in Washington, D.C., on January 20, 2025. Photo: Muhammad Abdullah.

The proposed TRIPP corridor has become one of the most ambitious geopolitical projects in the region. Beyond its economic significance, do you see TRIPP as a mechanism for building lasting interdependence and reducing the likelihood of future conflict?

Thomas de Waal: That’s the idea, and I think TRIPP has progressed fairly well. It has managed to square the circle of the competing demands of the two sides: Armenia’s insistence that any route crossing its territory fully respect Armenian sovereignty, and Azerbaijan’s desire for quick and easy access to its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenian territory. I think the modalities have been sorted out, the financing is there, and the United States is working on that. The Iran war definitely slowed things down and complicated matters. But hopefully, we now have a ceasefire in Iran, which means that construction can begin.

There are obviously some question marks about how much private-sector investment can be attracted to this route, given that it passes through a rather strategically vulnerable and remote area. But I am sure the Americans are working on that as well. So, I think it is going pretty well. And this gets back to my previous point: we may see cargo beginning to flow along this route within three or four years, creating an important trading link. But if there is not a proper peace agreement, then the local communities may not be as involved, and it could prove more problematic for passengers to use the route.

The Key Obstacle Remains Erdoğan’s Deference to Aliyev

Turkey appears increasingly interested in normalization with Armenia, yet remains closely aligned with Azerbaijan. How much strategic autonomy does Ankara actually possess in shaping Armenian-Turkish relations, and what obstacles still stand in the way of a historic breakthrough?

Thomas de Waal: Of course, Turkey has as much strategic autonomy as it chooses to exercise. It is a much larger and more powerful country than Azerbaijan. What we are seeing is very much the result of a personal decision by President Erdoğan not to move faster than President Aliyev on the peace and normalization track. This is despite the fact that many officials at the medium and upper levels of the Turkish government, as I have already mentioned, see significant strategic advantages in normalizing relations with Armenia and opening the border. Such a move would weaken Russian influence, strengthen Turkey’s role in the South Caucasus, and benefit the Kars-Iğdır region in eastern Turkey, among many other areas. It would also help neutralize many of the difficulties Turkey faces in its relations with the Armenian diaspora in France and the United States. 

So, there are plenty of reasons to move forward. However, the decisive factor up to now has been President Erdoğan’s determination to keep his personal commitment to President Aliyev and not move ahead of him. Now, if there is a moment that could prompt a reassessment of that policy, it is this one. The rather inconclusive outcome of the Armenian election may provide such an opportunity.

It will be interesting to see whether this issue is discussed at the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, particularly among European and American officials. I suspect we will not see much of those discussions publicly, but we will be relying on informed journalists and analysts to shed light on them. Because, for sure, this is the moment when Turkey—perhaps not toward full normalization, but certainly toward a more proactive approach—needs to pick up speed.

European Support Must Be Accompanied by Democratic Expectations

Armenia-EU
Photo: Dreamstime.

Some critics argue that the European Union has largely overlooked democratic shortcomings within Armenia because it prioritizes the country’s geopolitical reorientation away from Russia. How would you assess the tension between strategic interests and democratic conditionality in the EU’s approach to Armenia?

Thomas de Waal: That’s a good question. Obviously, the European Union is not a monolith. There are different opinions within the EU, and even within different parts of the Brussels institutions. There is a feeling that, for geopolitical reasons, it is important to invest in this government and in its tilt toward Europe—even if it is not a complete shift—and, more broadly, to invest in Armenia. People on the ground have no illusions that this is not a fully democratic government.

That said, I think some degree of conditionality would be beneficial. The question, really, is how that conditionality is presented to the Armenian side. One particularly problematic area is the judiciary. There have been appointments of judges without due process. And, as in many countries of the region, the prosecutor’s office remains far too powerful and can be used as an instrument by the governing party against its opponents. That is certainly something to watch. 

France is a key partner in this regard. If anyone has replaced Russia as Armenia’s principal patron, it is definitely France. President Macron clearly has a strong interest in Armenia. And I think the French are also aware of these concerns. Hopefully, the message to Mr. Pashinyan is: congratulations on your victory, but now do not do anything stupid. We support you, but our support is not unconditional.

The Diaspora and Armenia Are Increasingly Speaking Different Languages

The Armenian diaspora has historically played a powerful role in shaping national narratives, particularly regarding Nagorno-Karabakh and relations with Turkey. How significant is the growing divide between diaspora nationalism and Pashinyan’s “Real Armenia” agenda?

Thomas de Waal: When we talk about the Armenian diaspora, we have to be a bit careful, because there are obviously millions of Armenians outside Armenia, mainly descendants of Armenians from the Ottoman Empire who fled in 1915 and 1916 during what later became known as the Armenian Genocide. These communities are concentrated in places such as the Middle East, France, and the United States. Many of those people are not particularly political. However, there are powerful diaspora political organizations, particularly those associated with the Dashnak Party, the traditional nationalist Armenian party, and groups such as the ANCA in the United States. It is within these circles that we see a significant break with Pashinyan. There have been very critical commentaries directed at his government, with many expressing outrage at what they perceive as his abandonment of territorial claims relating to Turkey and Azerbaijan.

So, there is undoubtedly a substantial divide. What is striking, however, is how little influence this appears to have on political developments inside Armenia itself. The Dashnak Party in Armenia, I do not think, even contested this election, or, if it did, it received a very small share of the vote. Armenians inside Armenia were voting on other issues—certainly not on the questions that much of the diaspora continues to hold particularly dear. So, I think this may be a moment when diaspora organizations need to reassess and reconfigure their own understanding of reality. What exactly do they want from Armenia when the government of Armenia is articulating such a different vision of the country’s future?

It Is Still Too Early to Call Armenia a Success Story

More broadly, does Armenia represent a new model of post-Soviet transformation—one in which democratic consolidation, geopolitical diversification, and conflict resolution reinforce one another—or is that interpretation still premature?

Thomas de Waal: I think it is still premature. If you look at what happened in Georgia, there was a general assumption—including on my part—that democracy was fairly well consolidated and that the country’s pro-European trajectory was firmly established. Yet both of those assumptions have since been challenged, and quite dramatically so. So, it is always possible that Armenia could follow a different course than many currently expect.

The governing party did not win this election by a landslide. It secured many votes by default, largely because there was no credible democratic—or, indeed, any other credible—opposition. For that reason, we need to be cautious about drawing firm conclusions regarding Armenia’s future. It is entirely possible that a new third force could emerge, one that is neither aligned with the ruling party nor with Russia. It could even be a populist movement, perhaps resembling the Georgian Dream phenomenon that emerged in Georgia in 2012.

So, there remain many uncertainties. I do not think Armenian voters are yet fully consolidated in their support for the transformation the country has undergone. Things could still change, for sure.

Forging a New National Identity Will Be a Generational Project

Looking ahead, if Armenia succeeds in normalizing relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey while reducing dependence on Russia, what do you believe will be the most difficult challenge: institutionalizing democracy at home, managing external geopolitical pressures, or forging a new national identity after the end of the Karabakh era?

Thomas de Waal: Wow, I mean, all of those things are obviously difficult. Some of them will take years, perhaps even decades, to accomplish. A new national identity does not emerge overnight, and institution-building is a long-term process. And, of course, learning to live alongside former adversaries and adjusting to open borders with countries once regarded as enemies is not easy either. For all of those reasons, Armenians are understandably cautious about change.

That is precisely why change needs to be gradual and steady rather than abrupt. If the border is opened, for example, it should not be thrown fully open overnight to a large influx of people from across the border, which could trigger negative reactions.

But I suppose the good news is that Armenia is a small country receiving unprecedented levels of international attention. That, in itself, is a positive development. There are powerful and wealthy countries willing to support Armenia.  And, just let’s hope that the government understands properly how to utilize that help for good purposes.

Richard Giragosian

Giragosian: Russia Is Increasingly Seen as Part of the Problem by Armenians Rather Than the Solution

As Armenia navigates the aftermath of war, the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, and a far-reaching geopolitical realignment, one question looms large: Can democratic resilience survive amid regional insecurity and great-power competition? In this compelling ECPS interview, Richard Giragosian—Founding Director of the Regional Studies Center (RSC) in Yerevan—examines Armenia’s evolving relationship with Russia, the democratic implications of Nikol Pashinyan’s populist leadership, and the country’s strategic turn toward Europe. Giragosian argues that many Armenians now view Russia as “part of the problem rather than part of the solution,” while emphasizing that Armenia’s recent election represented a mandate for peace, normalization, and democratic continuity. The conversation explores populism in power, post-war identity transformation, Armenia–Turkey normalization, democratic institution-building, and the future of the South Caucasus. Ultimately, Giragosian suggests that Armenia may be less a model than “an accidental exception” in an era of democratic backsliding and geopolitical upheaval. 

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

As Armenia emerges from one of the most turbulent periods in its modern history, the country stands at the intersection of democratic resilience, geopolitical realignment, and post-war transformation. The aftermath of the 2020 war, the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, deepening estrangement from Russia, and ongoing normalization efforts with Turkey and Azerbaijan have profoundly reshaped Armenian politics and strategic thinking. Against this backdrop, the 2026 parliamentary elections have been widely interpreted as a referendum not only on Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s leadership but also on Armenia’s future place between Russia, Europe, and the wider region.

In this wide-ranging interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Richard Giragosian—Armenian-American academic, security analyst, and Founding Director of the Regional Studies Center (RSC) in Yerevan—examines the forces driving Armenia’s remarkable political trajectory. He argues that the election result reflected far more than a geopolitical choice. It represented a mandate for democratic continuity, political stability, and the pursuit of diplomatic normalization with Armenia’s neighbors. As Giragosian notes, the vote marked Armenia’s “third consecutive genuinely free and fair vote,” underscoring the country’s democratic consolidation despite war, insecurity, and external pressure.

A central theme of the conversation concerns the evolution of populism in power. Emerging from the 2018 Velvet Revolution, Pashinyan embodied a rare case of successful anti-establishment mobilization driven by nonviolent popular protest. Yet Giragosian argues that the qualities that enabled Pashinyan’s rise have not necessarily translated into effective governance. While acknowledging the historic significance of the revolution as “a rare victory of nonviolent people power,” he contends that Pashinyan remains “as impulsive as ever, as emotional, and sometimes reckless,” while public policy continues to be “overly centralized in the Prime Minister’s office.” In Giragosian’s assessment, the populist style that propelled Pashinyan to power now coexists with persistent institutional weaknesses and governance challenges.

The interview’s most striking insights, however, concern Armenia’s changing relationship with Russia. According to Giragosian, the war of 2020 and the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh fundamentally altered Armenian perceptions of Moscow. Russia is no longer widely viewed as Armenia’s indispensable protector. Instead, he argues, many Armenians increasingly regard Russia as “dangerously unreliable,” adding that the conflict has led them to see Russia “as part of the problem rather than part of the solution.” This shift reflects not simply a foreign policy adjustment but a broader reassessment of Armenia’s security assumptions and strategic dependencies.

The discussion also explores Armenia’s efforts to balance relations with Europe and Russia, prospects for peace with Azerbaijan, normalization with Turkey, democratic institution-building, and the emergence of a more civic and pragmatic understanding of patriotism. Yet Giragosian remains cautious about presenting Armenia as a model for others. Indeed, he suggests that Armenia may be “less of a lesson and more of an accidental exception”—a rare convergence of democratic mobilization, geopolitical opportunity, and regional recalibration. Whether that exception can endure may prove to be one of the defining questions for the future of the South Caucasus.

Here is the revised version of our interview with Richard Giragosian, edited lightly to enhance clarity, readability, and overall flow for publication.

Armenians Endorsed Peace, Stability, and Democratic Continuity

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan arrives for a meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council (EAEU) in Yerevan, Armenia, on November 19, 2021. Photo: Dreamstime.

Mr. Giragosian, welcome! To begin, the 2026 Armenian election has been widely interpreted as a public endorsement of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s strategic reorientation away from Russia and toward Europe. Do you see the result primarily as a geopolitical choice, a democratic mandate for peace, or a vote of confidence in Pashinyan’s leadership despite the trauma of Nagorno-Karabakh?

Richard Giragosian: That’s a very good opening question. The answer is actually all of the above, to varying degrees. In other words, there was undeniably a geopolitical context to this election. But I do think there are two other important elements behind the re-election of the Pashinyan government in Armenia. 

First, it is an important mandate for sustaining the positive momentum of the Armenian government’s policies of diplomatic engagement and normalization with its neighbors. This represents a significant post-war adjustment to a new reality. 

Second, and this is often underestimated, the election marked the country’s third consecutive genuinely free and fair vote. That is extremely important for the further deepening of democracy and the consolidation of these democratic gains. 

So, basically, yes, there was a geopolitical context. But this election was much more a mandate for the government to move forward.

Public Policy Remains Too Centralized in the Prime Minister’s Office

Pashinyan emerged from the 2018 Velvet Revolution as an anti-establishment reformer challenging entrenched oligarchic networks. To what extent does he still embody a populist political project, and how has governing transformed the character of his populism?

Richard Giragosian: What we see, as you correctly identified, is a specific aspect of populism in practice. In 2018, we witnessed a rare victory of nonviolent people power in Armenia. Nonviolence is wonderful, but it usually fails. In this context, it was a unique achievement.

However, Prime Minister Pashinyan’s advantages, assets, and political acumen that allowed him to come to power do not necessarily serve him well in governing the country. In other words, as leader of Armenia, Prime Minister Pashinyan remains as impulsive as ever, as emotional, and sometimes reckless. There is also a degree of inefficiency in governance. Public policy remains overly centralized in the Prime Minister’s office and in the Prime Minister’s hands. So, in this regard, the element of populism that swept him into power does not necessarily make him an effective leader.

Nationalism No Longer Resonates as Strongly in Armenian Politics

Comparative studies often suggest that military defeat weakens incumbents and fuels political backlash. How do you explain Pashinyan’s ability to survive the 2020 war, the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, and the subsequent political crises while still securing electoral legitimacy?

Richard Giragosian: The re-election of the Armenian government under Prime Minister Pashinyan, despite losing the war, is difficult to explain. But I do have an observation. And it is an observation that remained relevant in the recent election. Simply put, the reality is that there is no alternative to Pashinyan or his government. The opposition then, and the opposition now, remains deeply unpopular, discredited, and too closely tied to the previous authoritarian government. It is also rather weak, given its inability, as an opposition force, to propose any alternative strategy. Simply opposing normalization requires the presentation of an alternative strategy, and that is something the opposition has been unable to offer.

The opposition also reflects the reality that nationalism no longer resonates in Armenia. There are a pronounced acceptance and recognition of the need to normalize relations with Turkey and to engage in diplomatic negotiations with Azerbaijan. Nevertheless, the surprising re-election of the Pashinyan government after losing the war remains an impressive achievement and has sparked a degree of jealousy among many Western leaders.

Armenia Has Passed the Point of Returning to the Pre-War Status Quo

Yerevan.
Souvenir T-shirts displayed at a market in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, on July 5, 2017. Photo: Matyas Rehak / Dreamstime.

You have argued that Armenia has embarked on its most decisive strategic reorientation since independence. Following the election, how irreversible is this shift toward Europe, and what factors could still derail it?

Richard Giragosian: Very good question, Selçuk. What we see is that Armenia has now gone past the tipping point. There is little real risk or danger of returning to the old reality, to pre-war arrogance and a pre-war aggressive posture. We are past that danger. However, it is not necessarily a matter of embracing the Western European model versus escaping the Russian orbit. It is more about Armenia seeking, delicately and under conditions of fragility, to strike a balance within the West-versus-Russia paradigm. This is driving Armenia to diversify and to seek a number of security partners. For example, the only arms procurement deal since the war of 2020 was with India. Very much on purpose—not with the West, but with a partner that is less provocative to Russia. What Armenia is seeking to do is risky, because it may fail. But it would be a greater failure not to try. That means seeking to challenge Russia, while avoiding an overreaction from Russia and carefully choosing its battles.

At the same time, it represents a return to the region. It is a realization that Armenia, like every country, does not choose its neighbors. We have no choice, no alternative, but to build a relationship with Azerbaijan, to normalize relations with Turkey, and to deal with Iran to the south and Georgia to the north. There is no real alternative to geography.

Russian Influence Has Changed, Not Disappeared

You have described Russia as suffering from both geopolitical distraction and declining power projection following its invasion of Ukraine. Has the recent election confirmed the erosion of Russian influence in Armenia, or does Moscow retain significant leverage through economic, security, and social channels?

Richard Giragosian: The short answer is both. The longer answer is yes. Russia remains overwhelmed and distracted by its failed invasion of Ukraine. But that is rather temporary. We do expect a resurgent Russia to return to the South Caucasus and seek to regain its diminished power and influence.

In the case of Russia-Armenia relations, Russian leverage remains strong, although it is different from what it was in the past. Previously, Russian leverage was based on security dependence, with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict serving as an instrument of influence. Now, however, Armenia’s vulnerability to Russia lies primarily in economics and trade. Russia is Armenia’s largest import-export partner. Armenia also remains a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, to cite two examples.

But if we look at Armenia-Turkey normalization, it underscores the importance and necessity of reopening that border—not only to lower transit costs, but also to create new economic opportunities capable of countering Russian dominance. At the same time, I do think Armenia has an advantage: a rare degree of legitimacy and stability, unlike many countries within the Russian orbit.

The Armenian Sense of Betrayal by Russia Is Deeply Entrenched

Critics of Pashinyan accuse him of fostering anti-Russian sentiment, while supporters argue that Armenia is simply responding to Russia’s failure to honor its security commitments. Is Armenia witnessing the rise of genuine Russophobia, or merely a more realistic assessment of Russia’s reliability as an ally?

Richard Giragosian: To be quite honest and candid, I think the Armenian government is quite correct, as is the majority of Armenian public opinion, in recognizing the threat from Russia. Russia has, belatedly but now quite markedly, come to be seen as dangerously unreliable. There is a deeply entrenched Armenian sense of betrayal by Russia. The war of 2020 and the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh have led many Armenians to view Russia as part of the problem rather than part of the solution. I think this is a realistic assessment. 

I also think the lessons from the relationship with Russia illustrate the absence of any real choice or contest. For example, the European Union and the broader West are engaging with Armenia on the basis of attraction and persuasion. Russian policies toward Armenia, by contrast, have been rooted in coercion and pressure. There is really no contest here.

At the same time, I do think Russia’s arrogance, and its tendency to take Armenia for granted, actually contributed to this pre-existing tension in the relationship. I think Armenia’s future is much more closely tied to self-sufficiency, independence, and its regional role, and much less to being a Russian client, as it was in the past.

Russia’s Election Interference Failed to Deliver the Outcome It Wanted

Reports surrounding the election suggested attempts by Moscow and pro-Russian actors to influence public opinion. How should we understand Russian influence operations in Armenia today, and why did they fail to prevent a pro-Western electoral outcome?

Richard Giragosian: That’s a good question because there is an interesting paradox. Russia’s interference in the election generally failed to achieve any meaningful impact or result. However, we do see a vehemently pro-Russian political opposition garnering seats in the new Armenian Parliament. Two specifically pro-Russian parties were able to secure a significant minority share of the vote. This is an indication that we cannot become complacent about overcoming Russian influence, and that we must also recognize the challenge from within. The old-guard nationalist opposition, which continues to look to Russia, will undermine Armenian independence and challenge its policies toward its neighbors. So, we should not be overly complacent.

At the same time, I do think Russia is quite satisfied with the election result. There was little direct Russian support for the opposition, which would have been a much riskier move. But, for example, Russia is reassured that Armenia remains a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, while Armenia’s room to maneuver toward the West remains relatively limited and constrained. For that reason, I think the next challenge for Armenia will be to succeed in managing this new transactional relationship with Russia.

The European Union Has Become an Important Anchor for Reform

Armenia-EU
Photo: Dreamstime.

In your writings, you have emphasized that Armenia’s democratic development and European engagement are deeply interconnected. Can the European Union become a genuine democratic anchor for Armenia, or does Brussels still lack the strategic commitment necessary for long-term influence?

Richard Giragosian: I would say this is a rare example of the success of the European Union on the ground in Armenia. Certainly, it has served as an anchor for reform. But even more than that, we are witnessing an unprecedented level of EU engagement in Armenia. We see the deployment of EU monitors along the Armenian border with Azerbaijan to help stabilize the security situation. We also see unprecedented security assistance being provided to Armenia through the European Peace Facility (EPF).

What makes this so remarkable is that Armenia still hosts a Russian military base, remains a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, and is also part of the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization. Despite these three realities, none of them has prevented the EU from deepening its engagement.

Part of the reason is the reality that Armenia has overtaken Georgia as the leading democracy in the region. There is also, to some degree, a European Union expectation that Armenia—and Armenia’s normalization with its Turkish partner—could help the EU achieve a broader geopolitical objective. In other words, Armenia–Turkey normalization is seen as a positive game changer not only for Armenia, but for the European Union as well.

And finally, Armenia has to be careful not to be used by the European Union or drawn into the broader paradigm of conflict between the EU and Russia that has intensified since the war in Ukraine. Armenia has to be somewhat cautious. But yes, the European Union’s engagement represents an important new element for Armenia.

The South Caucasus Is Unlikely to Remain a Long-Term US Priority

The United States has become increasingly involved in Armenian-Azerbaijani diplomacy. How do you assess Washington’s growing role in the South Caucasus, and could Armenia emerge as a new arena of strategic competition between the United States and Russia?

Richard Giragosian: I’m rather skeptical. I am skeptical about Armenia and the South Caucasus being a sustainable priority within the American national interest. Moreover, if we consider the unpredictability of the Trump administration, I also question the durability of its commitment to, and interest in, the region.

At the same time, Armenia’s diplomatic achievements with Azerbaijan owe much more to the leadership in both Armenia and Azerbaijan and to their bilateral efforts. They were not solely the result of Western or American involvement. In fact, Armenia and Azerbaijan, acting on their own—without Russia and without the West—were able to achieve much more than before.

That said, there has been one very important achievement in terms of the American connectivity initiative. This modestly named Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity envisions road and rail connections through southern Armenia, linking Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan and onward to Turkey. This is important not only for the restoration of trade and transportation, but also for the return of deterrence, changing the strategic calculus and significantly reducing the risk of renewed hostilities.

So, when looking at American engagement, the record is mixed. But overall, it is a net positive. For Armenia and Azerbaijan, however, it would be a mistake to assume or rely too heavily on American involvement going forward.

Free Elections Are Necessary, but They Are Not Sufficient

You have often argued that democratic legitimacy is itself a strategic asset. To what extent has Armenia’s democratic trajectory strengthened its international standing, especially when compared with the authoritarian models represented by Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Russia?

Richard Giragosian: There are two concrete and practical advantages that we have seen emerge from Armenia’s legitimacy and democratic credentials. First, there has been a significant improvement in the investment climate. This helps explain the breakthrough agreements in the IT sector, Armenia’s establishment of data centers, its growing use of artificial intelligence, and advances in chip production. AI and chip diplomacy are a direct result of this improved investment climate.

A second notable achievement is that Armenia has come to be recognized as a predictable and reliable interlocutor. That is important both for Ankara and Baku—for Turkey and Azerbaijan. Armenia is increasingly accepted as a dependable, reliable, and predictable partner. In this part of the world, that is a rare achievement, and in many ways, it is even more important than democratic credentials alone.

Now, the bad news. Armenia’s institutional weakness in terms of democracy still needs to be addressed, and strengthening those institutions is just as important as holding free and fair elections. An election is not the answer, nor is it the complete recipe for democracy. Armenia still needs to strengthen its democratic institutions.

Concessions Can Contribute to Peace, but They Cannot Be Unilateral

Aliyev and Erdoğan.
President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan attend TEKNOFEST in Istanbul, Turkey, on April 29, 2023. Photo: Evren Kalinbacak / Dreamstime.

Pashinyan has presented peace with Azerbaijan as a prerequisite for Armenia’s future security and prosperity. Does the election provide him with a stronger mandate to finalize a peace agreement, or do major domestic and external obstacles remain?

Richard Giragosian: Clearly, yes. The government’s re-election provides a renewed mandate to continue engaging with Azerbaijan and to move the process forward. However, there are still significant challenges, especially regarding the Azerbaijani demand that Armenia amend its constitution, as well as the fact that the bilateral peace treaty has been initialed but not yet signed.

The real difference here, however, is that Armenia has been willing to accept its weakness and embrace its defeat, while also turning the page and moving forward with a much less provocative and much less aggressive posture toward all of its neighbors. So, there is reason for justified optimism. But it also takes two countries to achieve bilateral peace and stability.

Therefore, the next move will have to come first from Azerbaijan and then from Turkey in terms of normalizing relations. Armenian concessions and compromises are important, but they should not be unilateral.

The Constitution Will Remain a Potential Source of Friction

One of the unresolved issues concerns constitutional changes sought by Azerbaijan as part of a final settlement. How politically feasible are such reforms after the election, and do they risk creating a new wave of nationalist mobilization inside Armenia?

Richard Giragosian: That’s a very good point, because despite the re-election of the government, with a working majority and a renewed mandate, the government still fell short of a two-thirds majority in Parliament. That would have been much more helpful for constitutional amendments. The government’s working majority will therefore present a challenge in moving forward with a referendum on constitutional change.

However, we do see a demonstrable climbdown on the Azerbaijani side. They have retreated from their previously maximalist position, and the Azerbaijanis have become much more patient and far less demanding regarding the constitutional change requirement. It is no longer such an immediate prerequisite, which suggests there may be some flexibility, as well as an understanding in Baku that the Armenian government lacks the parliamentary majority necessary to guarantee this demand. So, I do think there is room for flexibility. But yes, it will remain a potential source of friction going forward.

Azerbaijan Continues to Shape the Limits of Turkish Policy

You have argued that normalization between Turkey and Armenia represents a rare opportunity for regional stabilization and economic development. Has the election increased the prospects for genuine rapprochement, or does Azerbaijan remain the decisive variable shaping Ankara’s policy?

Richard Giragosian: To be quite honest, despite the positive re-election of the Armenian government, there had already been notable progress before the election between Armenian and Turkish officials in moving incrementally closer to reopening the border. In this regard, when it comes to Armenian-Turkish normalization, the physical border has not yet opened. But the mental border has, and the issue has become much less poisonous and politically toxic within Turkey. 

However, unfortunately, the Turkish side remains hostage to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s approval and consent remain necessary for the fulfillment of normalization. Much to the frustration of the Erdoğan government, it is Azerbaijan that continues to limit Turkish options in the region. That reality is also rooted in the economic and commercial influence of SOCAR, the Azerbaijani State Oil Company, within the Turkish economy.

Nevertheless, we are seeing growing support and broader constituencies on the Turkish side in favor of reopening the border. And this is not about the Turkish economy in general. It is about the regional economy of eastern Turkey, particularly the underdeveloped and largely Kurdish-populated areas of the east. For the Turkish state, reopening the border is important not only for economically stabilizing the region but also for countering the PKK through jobs and economic opportunity rather than relying solely on police action. So, there is a clear security dimension as well. 

At the end of the day, even for Azerbaijan, Armenia-Turkey normalization represents a rare positive game changer—a genuine win-win.

Armenia May Influence Its Neighbors More Than Its Neighbors Influence Armenia

Armenia’s normalization efforts necessarily involve deeper engagement with two increasingly centralized and authoritarian neighboring states. Do you have concerns that closer political, economic, and institutional ties with Turkey and Azerbaijan could contribute to democratic erosion in Armenia? More specifically, just as Russia has long sought to project its political influence and governance model across the post-Soviet space, is there a risk that Ankara and Baku may also seek to export elements of their own illiberal political models to Armenia? Or do you believe that Armenia’s democratic institutions and growing engagement with Europe are sufficiently resilient to prevent such authoritarian diffusion?

Richard Giragosian: I’m less worried about the potential risk posed by neighboring Turkey or Azerbaijan in terms of eroding the Armenian democratic model, simply because it would be very difficult for Armenia’s population to accept any kind of role for either Turkey or Azerbaijan in shaping Armenia’s political development. The greater risk comes from Russia’s potential external interference.

At the same time, Armenia’s institutions remain rather fragile, vulnerable, and not yet sufficiently resilient. But I do think we are on a positive trajectory. And I also believe that the development of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as between Armenia and Turkey, can contribute positively to the democratic outlook of those countries.

So, I would reverse the question and focus on Armenia’s potential positive influence on its neighbors, rather than on the risk of intervention, interference, or democratic erosion emanating from Armenia’s neighbors and affecting Armenia itself.

Normalization Is Only the Foundation for Future Reconciliation

The loss of Nagorno-Karabakh has forced Armenia to reconsider long-standing assumptions about identity, security, and statehood. Are we witnessing the emergence of a new civic understanding of Armenian nationalism, and how might this reshape populist politics in the future?

Richard Giragosian: We are witnessing a sea change in terms of identity. And in this regard, it is not nationalism that resonates. Rather, it is a more mature evolution toward a new concept of patriotism. Specifically, from an Armenian perspective, nationalism can also be very negative, rooted in hatred of the enemy. Patriotism, in contrast, is much more positive. It is based on pride in history rather than hatred of rivals, opponents, or enemies. So, I do think there is a healthy and constructive movement in the right direction.

Nevertheless, it is still grounded in a painful reminder that Armenia was dangerously arrogant, especially in relation to Azerbaijan. There were too many missed opportunities for diplomacy. But Armenia is now cutting its losses and learning painful lessons. And I think the outlook moving forward remains positive. Because for Armenia, the first challenge was recognizing the problem. And that was the first stage in this evolution toward patriotism. It is also about normalization, and understanding what normalization with neighbors is—and is not. For example, in relation to both Turkey and Azerbaijan, this is not reconciliation. It is not even a rapprochement. It is normalization. It is the first step. It is also the basic currency of neighborly relations and the foundation for subsequent reconciliation.

This is why much of the past, including the events of 1915 and the genocide issue, is not part of the normalization process. These issues are not relevant to normalization. They will come later, once that foundation has been put in place.

Armenia May Be Less a Model Than an Accidental Exception

And lastly, at a time when democratic backsliding, authoritarian populism, and geopolitical revisionism are reshaping international politics, Armenia remains one of the few competitive democracies in the post-Soviet space. What lessons does the Armenian experience offer for understanding democratic resilience under conditions of war, external pressure, and geopolitical uncertainty?

Richard Giragosian: To be quite honest, I’m not sure. Armenia may be less of a lesson and more of an accidental exception. In other words, beginning with the change of government in 2018, it was a rare victory of nonviolence, of people power. Despite everything, despite later losing a war, despite Russia, what was the recipe for Armenia? I’m not quite sure. It could have been almost an accident of history.

But theoretically, we would say, sadly, that it took the loss of the war and the subsequent loss of Nagorno-Karabakh before Armenia could begin to rebound. At the same time, much of this opportunity also exists because Russia was distracted by its failed invasion of Ukraine. So, it is somewhat of an accidental convergence of interests.

At the same time, we do see Ankara, Yerevan, and Baku accidentally sharing similar concerns about Russia. There is an understanding that a regional identity, without any third-party involvement, is perhaps the real key to stability in terms of post-war adjustment. 

So, the short answer is: I’m not quite sure I have the answer.

Professor Cengiz Aktar.

Prof. Aktar: The EU Is Systematically Giving False Hopes to Armenia

In this timely ECPS interview, Professor Cengiz Aktar examines the political, geopolitical, and democratic implications of Armenia’s 2026 parliamentary elections. While acknowledging Armenia’s democratic resilience in an authoritarian neighborhood, he challenges prevailing narratives about the country’s westward turn, arguing that Armenia’s economic, energy, and security dependence on Russia remains profound. Describing the European Union as “the greatest populist actor in this game,” Professor Aktar contends that Brussels is fostering expectations it cannot realistically fulfill. The interview explores Nikol Pashinyan’s evolving populism, post-Karabakh politics, democratic backsliding, normalization with Turkey and Azerbaijan, Russian influence, and the enduring significance of historical memory. At its core lies a fundamental question: how can a fragile democracy survive amid competing geopolitical pressures?

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

Armenia’s 2026 parliamentary elections have been widely interpreted as a pivotal moment in the country’s post-Karabakh trajectory. Taking place amid the aftermath of military defeat, the forced displacement of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, ongoing normalization efforts with Turkey and Azerbaijan, and growing tensions between Russia and the West, the elections raised fundamental questions about democratic resilience, populism, sovereignty, and geopolitical realignment in the South Caucasus.

In this wide-ranging interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Professor Cengiz Aktar—adjunct professor of political science at the University of Athens, guest lecturer at Yerevan State University, and one of the foremost analysts of Turkey-Armenia relations, memory politics, and regional geopolitics—offers a provocative assessment of Armenia’s democratic future and its increasingly complex international environment.

While acknowledging Armenia’s democratic achievements, Professor Aktar stresses the extraordinary constraints under which the country operates. As he observes, Armenia remains “the only democracy in the Caucasus, indeed in the region,” a small, landlocked state surrounded by authoritarian neighbors and exposed to intense geopolitical pressures. Yet he warns that many assumptions currently shaping discussions of Armenia’s future rest on unrealistic expectations regarding Europe’s role and capacity.

The most striking theme of the interview concerns Armenia’s growing rapprochement with the European Union. Contrary to prevailing narratives that portray Armenia’s recent political direction as a decisive shift toward Europe, Professor Aktar argues that Armenia’s economic, energy, and security dependence on Russia remains overwhelming and cannot be easily replaced. In his view, European policymakers are encouraging expectations that they cannot realistically fulfill. “None of this can be replaced by the European Union,” he argues. “Yet the EU is systematically giving false hopes to Armenia. In that sense, the greatest populist actor in this game is Europe. Because Europe is offering hopes that it simply cannot fulfill.”

Professor Aktar is equally skeptical of assumptions that Armenia faces a straightforward geopolitical choice between Russia and Europe. While recognizing the country’s genuine democratic aspirations and strong cultural connections with Europe, he contends that geography, energy dependence, trade networks, and security realities continue to bind Armenia closely to Moscow. For this reason, he warns that unrealistic promises of European integration may ultimately prove counterproductive, potentially undermining Armenia’s stability while provoking Russian backlash.

The interview also explores Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s evolving populism, the politics of peace and normalization with Turkey and Azerbaijan, democratic backsliding, Russia’s continuing influence, historical memory, and the unresolved legacy of the Armenian Genocide. Throughout, Professor Aktar returns to a central dilemma confronting Armenia today: how a fragile democracy can preserve its autonomy and democratic character while navigating an increasingly hostile regional environment shaped by authoritarian power politics and great-power competition.

Here is the revised version of our interview with Professor Cengiz Aktar, lightly edited for clarity, readability, and publication.

Armenians Were Tired of War, and Pashinyan Successfully Capitalized on That Fatigue

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan arrives for a meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council (EAEU) in Yerevan, Armenia, on November 19, 2021. Photo: Dreamstime.

Professor Aktar, welcome! You recently argued that the 2026 elections would reveal the direction of Armenian democracy after the trauma of Karabakh and the pressures of regional geopolitics. How should we interpret Nikol Pashinyan’s re-election? Does it represent a democratic endorsement of his peace agenda, or merely a choice of the “least risky” option in a constrained political environment?

Professor Cengiz Aktar: Before going into the details of the Armenian political microcosm, we should underline that this small country— less than 30,000 square kilometers after all—completely landlocked and surrounded by two enemy nations, Azerbaijan and Turkey, is the only democracy in the Caucasus, indeed in the region. This is something that people tend to forget. They are doing their best to remain a democracy. It is not easy because they have to deal with anti-democracies. But so far, they have been doing all right.

We will see how the final results of these elections play out. They are not final yet, and there are many issues—we will come to them. We will see the outcome and how the authorities address some of the serious questions that have arisen after the elections.

That being said, the people have re-elected the Prime Minister and, at the end of the day, endorsed his views. This is quite a remarkable achievement because, normally, when a leader loses a war and, moreover, loses a territory—which is the case with Nagorno-Karabakh, a historic Armenian land that was given by the Soviets to Azerbaijan and later reclaimed by Azerbaijan through war with Armenia, openly and extensively supported by the Turkish armed forces—the political consequences are severe. The reality was therefore quite harsh for a prime minister seeking a new mandate. Yet he succeeded. Of course, this may seem contradictory or paradoxical, but it is not.

There are two elements at play here. We could talk for hours about this. As you know, I have written extensively on the subject in Turkish for Agos, the Armenian newspaper published in Turkey in both Turkish and Armenian.

The first and foremost reason is that the people of Armenia are tired of fighting. There is a clear war fatigue. Although we cannot compare it to what is happening in our region, in Mesopotamia and elsewhere, this sense of insecurity has been very real. The Prime Minister used—and abused—this feeling extensively, essentially saying: if you do not vote for me, we will go to war. That was, of course, highly manipulative and a very populist way of dealing with such a sensitive issue as peace and security. Nevertheless, it worked.

The second element is that this country is virtually unrecognizable. I have been going there since 1990, and today Armenia is experiencing a boom in personal spending and consumption. It is becoming a mass-consumption society of the kind we saw in Western Europe after 1945. This, of course, is music to the ears of the Armenian public. I visit regularly, but this time I was genuinely amazed by the number of brand-new cars. There are hardly any old cars left in the city. Everybody seems to have a new one. Where does this money come from? Of course, no one asks such questions. But the main source of these finances, as in other countries of the region—including Turkey, Georgia, and others—comes from sanctions-busting.

The West—the United States and the European Union—sanctioned Russia, first after the annexation of Crimea and then following the full-scale war against Ukraine. Yet many countries have been circumventing these sanctions. This is not speculation. There are extensive reports on the matter, including in leading newspapers such as the Financial Times, documenting the flow of goods and cash to and from Russia. Russian gold, for example, moves through the South Caucasus and then to China and India, where it is processed and made marketable before returning to Russia. As one can imagine, this trade is extremely lucrative, and we see its effects in the economy of Yerevan.

So, all in all, the people have voted—although not for a full majority, and we will come to that. They voted for a different type of future. That is understandable. But is it sustainable? I think that is the real question.

Who Is Not Populist When Seeking Re-Election?

Pashinyan originally emerged from the 2018 Velvet Revolution as an anti-establishment figure challenging entrenched oligarchic networks. To what extent can he still be understood as a populist leader, and how has his populism evolved from opposition mobilization to governing power?

Professor Cengiz Aktar: Who is not populist, Selçuk? Especially when one is running for re-election. It is almost compulsory to be a populist, unfortunately. Nikol Pashinyan was in full swing when it came to populist moves, actions, speeches, and narratives. That is all true. But it worked. The question is whether he really represents a future for the country. Some observers say so, but at what price? That is the real issue, the real problem that Armenians will have to confront sooner or later.

What he has managed to achieve with Turkey and Azerbaijan—two longstanding foes of Armenia—is not yet fully accomplished, but it is on track; it is in the pipeline. However, it has been pursued through, once again, a very populist way of handling highly sensitive matters. It has been achieved by making huge concessions to both countries, without really receiving anything in return. This is very dangerous in the sense that one cannot ignore the imbalance involved.

I often think of a famous observation by Henry Kissinger, who was not exactly a commendable figure. He used to say that the best and most sustainable peace deals are those concluded by parties that leave the negotiating table equally dissatisfied with the outcome. That is very true. Yet in the case of Armenia and Azerbaijan—and also Turkey—that did not happen, and it will not happen, because Azerbaijan and Turkey do not have much to offer in return, except perhaps opening the border in Turkey’s case, and maybe Azerbaijan’s as well.

Even then, there are enormous conditions attached before anything concrete can happen. As you may have noticed, there has been much discussion in the Turkish media about the possibility that the two land border crossings could open during the summer. We will see whether Azerbaijan will allow Turkey to move forward with this symbolic—or perhaps concrete—opening of the border, which has been closed since 1993. That is a very long time.

As of today, the 12th of June, only five days after the elections, there remains a great deal of uncertainty. The Prime Minister did not get everything he wanted, and the opposition actually performed quite well. Does that mean that those who voted for the opposition are pro-Russian or anti-Western? I do not think so. That would be far too hasty a conclusion.

Frankly, I remain quite skeptical about the future, and there are some very unpleasant developments unfolding at the moment. But we will come to those in due course. 

People Were Willing to Sacrifice Almost Anything for Peace

Armenia protest.
Anti-government protesters gather in front of the Armenian government building in Yerevan on December 9, 2020, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan following the Nagorno-Karabakh war. Photo: Corneius Brandt / Dreamstime.

Comparative scholarship often suggests that military defeats weaken populist governments. Yet Pashinyan survived both the 2020 war and the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh. What explains his resilience, and what does it tell us about the relationship between populism, accountability, and democratic legitimacy?

Professor Cengiz Aktar: Democratic legitimacy is a big word. But frankly, as I said at the beginning, the appeal of a consumer society and the symbolic peace narrative played a major role. Pashinyan used this message effectively, even adopting the little heart as the symbol of his campaign, which is totally un-Armenian. It is not something that is commonly used in Armenia, nor in the Caucasus. Anyhow, these two elements—peace and consumption apparently worked. That is the reality. But again, are they sustainable? That is the question.

It worked perfectly. Elderly people were appearing on television, in street interviews and similar formats, saying remarkable things about the importance of peace at any cost. They were prepared to give up almost anything in exchange for peace and greater consumption. So, once again, the question remains: is it sustainable? I do not think so.

The Dominant Geopolitical Orientation Remains Russia, Not Europe

Many observers described the election as a referendum on Armenia’s geopolitical orientation. Do you think Armenian voters primarily voted on domestic democratic concerns, or was this fundamentally a choice between Russia and Europe?

Professor Cengiz Aktar: In Armenia, since the Velvet Revolution of 2018, there has been a genuine sense of democratic aspiration within society. Of course, not every individual is pro-democracy or democratic—that exists nowhere in the world—but overall, the aim, the tendency, and the willingness are there. Armenians want to build a democratic society.

But there are major impediments. It is a very small and a very dependent country. Despite the strong Western tropism that developed during the election campaign, particularly through the major event that took place in Yerevan at the beginning of May—the annual meeting of the so-called European Political Community, which was revived by Macron after an earlier French initiative had been abandoned in 1954—the reality remains quite different. The European Political Community is not a binding European institution; it is essentially a talk shop. Yet during this gathering, the whole of Europe was present, along with Canada, and they all delivered very warm messages to the Armenians. The message was essentially: “You are now part of Europe. You are welcome,” and so on.

But the reality is not quite that. The dominant and determining geopolitical orientation of Armenia remains Russia, not the West. Everything that happened during May before the elections—including these Western visits and those from the United States as well; the Vice President was there in March, carried the same message: “Armenia, we love you, and you are one of us.”

What explains this sudden affection? It is rooted in the anti-Russian policies of the West. In a sense, Armenia has been used for that purpose. Now tensions are emerging with Russia, which remains by far Armenia’s most influential neighbor. Armenia depends on Russia on an unbelievable scale. This dependence cannot be replaced or superseded by any European initiative, however well-intentioned. Geographically, historically, politically, and economically, it is impossible.

You have read what I have written about this dependency. More than 82 percent of Armenia’s gas and energy needs are covered by Russia, at an extraordinarily low price—$177.5 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas. There is nothing comparable anywhere else. If Russia were to change that arrangement unilaterally, Armenia would face tremendous difficulties. Not to mention Metsamor, the country’s only nuclear power plant, located near the Turkish border. It was built by the Russians, and Rosatom supplies its fuel. Nor should we forget the petrol and oil products that Armenians use every day in their new cars. There is also the enormous Russian market for Armenian products such as fruits, vegetables, and flowers.

None of this can be replaced by the European Union. Yet the EU is systematically giving false hopes to Armenia. In that sense, the greatest populist actor in this game is Europe. Because Europe is offering hopes that it simply cannot fulfill. People are now even talking about future EU membership for Armenia. But that is out of the question. One of the indispensable conditions for EU membership is territorial continuity. So where is the territorial continuity? It simply does not exist. It will not happen. There is no realistic chance whatsoever. Yet people are buying into this rhetoric without fully understanding the realities involved, and in the process they are jeopardizing the country’s relations with Russia. That is where we find ourselves today.

Russia Remains the Ultimate Game Changer in Armenia

You have repeatedly emphasized Moscow’s declining credibility in Armenia after its failure to prevent the loss of Karabakh. Has Russia now lost its position as Armenia’s primary external reference point, or does it still possess significant instruments of influence inside the country?

Professor Cengiz Aktar: Of course, as I said, yes. Russia remains the game changer in Armenia. Armenians are certainly not in love with Russia, particularly since the Russians did nothing to stop the Azeris and the Turks from taking back Nagorno-Karabakh. So, every Armenian has reason to be unhappy about what Russia did. But, the reality is something else. As I explained, the country remains highly dependent on Russia, and that dependence will not change from one day to the next.

Moscow May Have Felt No Need to Interfere

Yerevan.
Souvenir T-shirts displayed at a market in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, on July 5, 2017. Photo: Matyas Rehak / Dreamstime.

Several reports suggested Russian attempts to influence the election through economic pressure, disinformation, and support for pro-Russian actors. How should we understand these efforts within the broader framework of transnational authoritarian influence and democratic resilience?

Professor Cengiz Aktar: The OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) was there. The ODIHR has a specialized body that monitors elections in OSCE member states, and it was present during these elections as well. According to ODIHR, there was no interference whatsoever. There was a great deal of fake news on the subject, but neither the Electoral Commission nor the independent media found any substantial evidence of vote-buying or influence operations orchestrated by Russia.

On the contrary, there were reports concerning officials from Civil Contract, Nikol Pashinyan’s party, exerting pressure on civil servants to vote for Civil Contract. A civil servant is, after all, an obedient servant, so if the boss says, “Go and vote for me,” he or she generally will. These kinds of irregularities were noted.

Overall, however, I do not think that Russia intervened in the Armenian elections. If I put myself in the position of Russian decision-makers, I would say that they are probably so confident in their leverage over the Armenian economy that they felt no need to intervene directly in order to influence the outcome of the elections.

European Tropism Is a Myth and a Pipe Dream

The election result appears to strengthen Armenia’s rapprochement with Europe. In your view, is this shift primarily strategic and security-driven, or does it also reflect a deeper normative commitment to liberal democracy and European political values?

Professor Cengiz Aktar: No, as I said, this European tropism is a myth. It is a myth. Armenians are not discovering Europe. Armenia is, in a way, a very European country. Just look at the diaspora. The European Armenian diaspora is very strong and remains highly present in Armenia itself. If you compare the two countries, for instance Azerbaijan and Armenia, Armenia is by far more European than Azerbaijan, which has virtually no connection to Europe whatsoever. There is no significant Azeri diaspora in Europe. That is not the case with Armenia. Armenia knows what Europe means, in a way.

But, having said that, I repeat: this European tropism is a pipe dream. It is a personal choice, but it will not have any real consequences for the development of Armenian democracy in the foreseeable future. They are not there, and they will not be there.

The Americans are another matter altogether. They are much more focused on transactionalism. They buy and sell, and they do not care at all about the democratic future of any country in the world—including their own.

Autocratic Tendencies Are Clearly Visible

Some critics argue that Pashinyan has displayed increasingly personalized leadership tendencies and a growing concentration of power. Do you see signs of democratic erosion under his government, or are such concerns exaggerated given Armenia’s broader regional context?

Professor Cengiz Aktar: The trend is troubling. There have been some anti-democratic and illegal actions directed against the opposition, but not only against the opposition. Let me give you the example of the director of the Genocide Museum in Yerevan. This lady offered a book to the American Vice President during his visit to Yerevan. The book dealt with the fate of the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians. As you know, 150,000 Armenians were forced to flee Nagorno-Karabakh. She was subsequently sanctioned by the Prime Minister, who forced her resignation. This is far from any democratic way of handling public affairs. The lady was compelled to resign and was replaced by a bureaucrat close to the Prime Minister who has no real understanding of the history of the Armenian genocide.

He is also challenging the role of the Church. Etchmiadzin, the Holy See, is systematically under pressure from the government. That is not the role of a government—to intervene in the affairs of the Church, whatever the circumstances. There may be all sorts of accusations against the head of the Church, Karekin, involving embezzlement and other matters, but that is not the role of a government.

During the campaign as well, there were some quite worrisome developments targeting opposition figures, and these developments are still continuing.

Moreover, the election results are not yet entirely clear, because we still do not know whether a fourth party will make it into Parliament. Unfortunately, since the closure of voting on the night of the 7th June, there has been considerable pressure on election officials to ensure that this fourth party remains below the 4 percent threshold and does not enter Parliament. By cheating, of course. 

And now the scandal is completely out in the open. All opposition parties are protesting loudly. They are taking the matter to the Electoral Commission and will probably proceed to the Constitutional Court afterwards in order to seek a proper resolution, because this party’s votes have been cancelled. The objective has been to ensure that it does not enter Parliament and remains below the 4 percent threshold. We cannot call this democratic. It is anti-democratic, it is illegal, and it challenges the principle of free and fair elections. So, are there autocratic tendencies? Yes, definitely. They are very much there. Are they widespread? No. But the danger is there.

Concessions Without Reciprocity Create Fragile Peace

Armenia-Azerbaijan-Turkey flags.
Photo: Dreamstime.

Pashinyan campaigned explicitly on a message of peace with Azerbaijan and normalization with Turkey. Is this the emergence of a new political cleavage in Armenia between peace-oriented pragmatism and nationalist revisionism?

Professor Cengiz Aktar: It is a good question. National revisionism, okay—but revise what? Those who challenge the Prime Minister’s positions, policies, actions, and narratives are saying something that is very meaningful. They say: “We are not against peace.” After all, who can be against peace? Who can be in favor of war? That is a form of universal wisdom. But they are asking a different question: How did you achieve that peace? What do you receive in return when you make concessions to Azerbaijan and Turkey? 

That is the real question. It is fascinating to observe that a very similar dynamic is unfolding in Turkey with the Kurds. The Kurds speak about peace, a peace process here and a peace process there. But what do they receive in return from the Turkish state? In line with their longstanding demands—for example, the freedom of the Kurdish language and the recognition of Kurdish as an official language in Turkey—they receive nothing.

It is the same in Armenia. The practice is exactly the same. Everybody talks about peace, but when you ask what they receive in return for their concessions, the answer is: nothing. They say they receive peace. But this peace exists entirely under the shadow and control of the other parties, who can challenge it at any moment. They have not given anything themselves, and therefore they can always come back and say: “No, we want more.”

That is precisely what is happening now. As you may know, before the elections—more specifically on May 15—there was an important development. The Azerbaijani ambassador to Ankara openly and quite happily declared that the opening of the border between Turkey and Armenia was directly linked to the so-called peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and that Baku and Ankara were coordinating their moves and policies. 

He was speaking on behalf of Baku, and the condition for this so-called peace process was—and still is—a change to the Armenian Constitution. Specifically, Azerbaijan wants the removal of the provision concerning Nagorno-Karabakh, which is referred to in the Armenian Constitution as an Armenian territory, or as a territory inhabited by Armenians. In other words, Baku wants Yerevan to eliminate this provision, and this remains the principal condition for accepting a lasting peace with its neighbor.

The problem is that, in order to do that, the Prime Minister needs a two-third qualified majority in Parliament, which he did not obtain. Now, with all the controversy surrounding vote-rigging and alleged manipulation concerning the fourth party I mentioned earlier, I do not see how he can satisfy the Azerbaijani demand by amending the Constitution and removing the reference to Nagorno-Karabakh. This means that the prospects for peace with Azerbaijan—and, consequently, with Turkey—are in serious difficulty.

They are compromised, and no one can foresee the outcome at this stage because we still do not have the final count, nor do we know exactly how many parties will ultimately enter Parliament. But in any case, even if the fourth party fails to enter Parliament, the ruling Civil Contract party still lacks the necessary majority to amend the Constitution. So, we are facing a deadlock, and no one really knows how it will evolve.

The Perversion of Justice Starts With the Denial of Memory

Professor Aktar, you have often argued that Turkey cannot become a fully democratic society without confronting its historical crimes, particularly the Armenian Genocide. How does the current normalization process affect questions of historical justice, memory, and democratic reconciliation?

Professor Cengiz Aktar: This is a question that really deserves a separate discussion, but in a nutshell, I can offer an example. Turkey is in dire straits. Turkish democracy does not exist. In fact, I would argue that it never truly existed. But the rule of law, for which Turks have struggled since 1923—and especially since the end of the Second World War—is now gone as well.

These are structural problems, even structural diseases. I do not particularly like using that term, but this is what we are dealing with: a dysfunction that goes back to the founding sin of the state—the Armenian Genocide and the Syriac Genocide, which are inseparable and which occurred more than a century ago.

A country that does not come to terms with such a painful and sinful past can easily digest other sins, as is the case today, including sins that are far less serious and far less painful than what happened 111 years ago.

What I am saying is not abstract. I am not talking about ghosts. I am talking about the perversion of the sense of justice in this country. And I am quite sure that Turkey will not make it through the remaining decades of the twenty-first century without recognizing, reflecting upon, and recalling this tragic past, which ultimately resulted in the disappearance of the entire non-Muslim population of Anatolia. We are talking about three million people.

So, it is really a matter of either-or. What is the significance of an embezzlement scandal involving a Turkish politician—for instance, Erdoğan—when compared with genocide? It is nothing. It is peanuts.

Therefore, a population, a polity, a society, and a state that do not wish to remember what happened a century ago—which was carried out by Turks and Kurds —can easily digest, accept, and live with far less serious wrongdoings, as we see happening today.

This is simply a normal consequence of this absence of memory, or rather this voluntary loss of memory and de-memorization of the past. It is very dangerous, and it is very unhealthy.

False European Hopes May Push Armenia Back Into Moscow’s Orbit

Armenia-EU
Photo: Dreamstime.

And lastly, Professor Aktar, at a time when much of the post-Soviet space is characterized by authoritarian consolidation, Armenia remains one of the few competitive democracies in the region. What lessons does the Armenian experience offer for understanding democratic resilience, populism, and geopolitical pressure in the twenty-first century?

Professor Cengiz Aktar: Interestingly, we began our discussion with this point, and we will conclude with it as well. Armenia remains the only country in its immediate neighborhood that is genuinely trying to remain a democracy. The next democratic country, after all, is Greece, which is quite far away.

It is doing its best to preserve democratic governance. But it is extremely difficult to survive in a non-democratic, and even anti-democratic, environment when you are surrounded by countries that do not share the values, principles, and norms of democracy.

This is not merely a theoretical issue; it is a practical one. Non-democracies and anti-democracies can conclude agreements with democratic countries, sign them, and then simply ignore their commitments. Because they are not accountable. A non-democratic or anti-democratic regime is not accountable to its population. It simply does not care.

Take Russia, for example. I mentioned earlier the figure of $177 for 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas. That gas is supplied under an agreement between Moscow and Yerevan. But Moscow, as a non-democratic—indeed, a totalitarian—state, can simply say: “We are no longer bound by that agreement. We are raising the price to the international market level of $600. Take it or leave it.” This illustrates the difficulty of operating—and indeed surviving—in such an environment. I sincerely hope that the Armenians will manage and succeed.

The problem is that the false hopes offered by European countries and by the European Union itself are not helpful. In fact, they indirectly push Armenia back into Moscow’s orbit and deeper into Russia’s sphere of influence. The Russians are already deeply upset with the Europeans, not least because of what is happening in Ukraine. And they are unlikely to tolerate what they would perceive as a second strategic setback in their immediate neighborhood. After all, the Caucasus is their backyard.

There is one final point. Anyone interested in the South Caucasus should take a serious and analytical look at what happened in Georgia. Georgia went through a very similar process—loosening its ties with Russia and moving closer to the West. In the end, it failed. The country ended up with two portions of its territory effectively invaded and, while not formally annexed, indirectly administered by Russia. Meanwhile, all the Western hopes and aspirations of eventually joining the European Union have faded away. They are gone. Finished. Today the country is governed by a tycoon who is completely infatuated with Moscow.

This, unfortunately, is the reality of the South Caucasus. We will see how things evolve. I wish the very best to Armenia, but the task before it is not easy at all.

Professor Stephan Haggard.

Prof. Haggard: Democratic Institutions Survive Only When Citizens Support Them

Professor Stephan Haggard, one of the world’s leading scholars of democratic backsliding and authoritarianism, argues that the survival of democracy depends not only on constitutional safeguards but also on sustained public commitment to democratic institutions. In this timely ECPS interview, he examines how populism, polarization, judicial erosion, and attacks on electoral integrity are reshaping democratic politics across the globe. Distinguishing between populism as a “thin ideology” and democratic backsliding as an institutional process, Professor Haggard warns that elected leaders increasingly challenge democracy from within. The conversation explores the weakening of horizontal checks, the rise of anti-institutional rhetoric, the diffusion of illiberal strategies across borders, and the growing importance of democratic resilience. As he cautions, democracy faces its greatest danger when populist movements cease to respect rights, the rule of law, and the integrity of elections.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

At a time when democratic institutions are under mounting pressure from populist movements, partisan polarization, and growing distrust in public authority, understanding how democracies erode—and how they endure—has become one of the most urgent challenges in political science. Few scholars have contributed more to this debate than Professor Stephan Haggard, Research Professor and Lawrence and Sallye Krause Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of California San Diego. Over a distinguished career spanning comparative politics, political economy, authoritarianism, and democratic governance, Professor Haggard has produced some of the most influential scholarship on democratic transitions, institutional change, and regime durability.

In this wide-ranging interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Professor Haggard reflects on the relationship between populism, democratic backsliding, judicial erosion, polarization, and the resilience of democratic institutions. Challenging simplistic understandings of democratic decline, he argues that contemporary autocratization increasingly unfolds not through military coups or abrupt regime collapses, but through gradual institutional weakening carried out by elected leaders operating within formally democratic systems.

One of the interview’s central themes is the fragility of democratic institutions when public support begins to erode. As Professor Haggard observes, “courts operate as checks only to the extent that there is support for courts operating as checks,” emphasizing that “democratic institutions survive only when citizens support them.” For him, the durability of democracy ultimately depends not only on constitutional design, but also on the willingness of political actors and citizens alike to defend the norms and institutions that sustain democratic rule.

Throughout the discussion, Professor Haggard distinguishes between populism as a political ideology and democratic backsliding as an institutional process. Drawing on Cas Mudde’s concept of populism as a “thin ideology,” he argues that populism becomes dangerous when commitments to majoritarian rule are accompanied by efforts to weaken rights, judicial independence, oversight of institutions, and other components of liberal democracy. “Populism is a kind of motivating ideology that can drive backsliding,” he explains, while democratic erosion manifests itself through concrete institutional consequences.

The interview also explores the growing challenge posed by anti-institutional rhetoric, attacks on electoral integrity, transnational networks of illiberal cooperation, and the emergence of authoritarian regional organizations that seek to reshape global governance. Particularly striking is Professor Haggard’s candid assessment of the contemporary United States. Reflecting on the resilience of advanced democracies, he acknowledges that he is “beginning to have doubts”about earlier assumptions that consolidated democracies are largely immune from authoritarian drift. Indeed, he remarks that if asked whether the United States remains a democracy, he would “have to scratch [his] head over that question.”

At once sobering and illuminating, this interview offers a powerful examination of the institutional foundations of democracy and the conditions under which they can be preserved—or lost.

Here is the revised version of our interview with Professor Stephan Haggard, lightly edited for clarity, readability, and publication.

Populism and Backsliding Should Be Seen as Distinct Phenomena

Photo: Shutterstock.

Professor Haggard, welcome. To begin, in your recent work on democratic backsliding, you argue that democratic erosion unfolds through identifiable institutional pathways rather than abrupt regime breakdowns. To what extent has contemporary populism become the primary vehicle through which democratic backsliding is advancing across diverse contexts such as the United States, Hungary, India, Turkey, and Latin America?

Professor Stephan Haggard: Actually, your question made me think about the relationship between populism and backsliding in a more comprehensive way. Populism, to me, is a form of what Cas Mudde calls a thin ideology. And I am sure your center has done work in that vein. What I mean by that is something quite particular: it includes a belief that democracy should be majoritarian in form. By majoritarian democracy, I mean the simple concept that the people should rule, the public should rule, and that rights and horizontal checks should be minimized in the interest of popular sovereignty.

Now, that is related to the concept of backsliding insofar as believers in this kind of majoritarian conception of democracy see fit to dismantle things that we would consider components of liberal democracy in order to achieve their objectives. To make a long-winded answer short, I would say that populism is a kind of motivating ideology that can drive backsliding, but it should be seen as somewhat distinct from it, with backsliding being the institutional consequences of governments that hold these populist beliefs.

Courts Cannot Function as Checks Without Public Backing

Many contemporary populist leaders portray themselves as the authentic representatives of “the people” against allegedly corrupt elites and institutions. Why have legislatures, courts, and oversight bodies proven particularly vulnerable to populist attacks despite their central role in democratic accountability?

Professor Stephan Haggard: Again, what I find so fascinating about discussions of populism and backsliding is that they get us to the core components of how democracies survive and what we mean by democratic rule. Courts operate as checks only to the extent that there is support for courts operating as checks. If that support dwindles or diminishes, it becomes harder for them to play that function. This is true across the institutions that manage elections, it is true of courts, it is true of ombudsmen, it is true of anti-corruption agencies, and so forth. So, my answer to this question is that if you have populist movements that are robust and willing to achieve their goals by attacking these components of liberal democracy as we understand them, then it becomes difficult for those institutions to act as checks.

Let me say one thing about the incumbents of these offices as well, because this is something that I think deserves more research. In the United States, for example, in the electoral monitoring bodies, we have found that the individuals who staff those bodies are frequently quite committed to their democratic function. That has itself acted as a check, insofar as the personnel in these institutions have remained committed to their fundamental goals and thus supported them and made them viable. So that is another interesting area of research: the level of personnel, and whether they are committed to the democratic project or not.

Backsliding Has Become the Contemporary Route to Authoritarianism

Illustration: Design Rage.

Classical theories of democratic breakdown focused on military coups and overt authoritarian seizures of power. How has the rise of electoral populism transformed our understanding of democratic erosion and regime change in the twenty-first century?

Professor Stephan Haggard: I would see coups and backsliding as two quite different routes to authoritarian rule, and there may be others. For example, Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way have recently published a very important book on authoritarian durability, in which they argue that social revolution is one path to authoritarian durability. But in general, over the course of the post-World War II world the main route to authoritarian governance historically was the coup. It was the military that challenged democratic rule, and it would typically do so quite suddenly. Military leaders would walk in front of a bank of microphones and say, “Congress is closed, the courts are closed, political parties are banned. The press is now going to be censored and controlled.” 

What is interesting is that, in general, this form of attack on democracy diminished in incidence over the post-war period.But it has not gone away altogether. We had a coup in Thailand in 2014 and in Myanmar in 2021, and we have seen a spate of recent coups in West Africa. We also have some hybrid forms, which are interesting. For example, the Korean case is quite interesting. That involved a declaration of martial law that was very short-lived. It was made by a civilian but then implicated the military and was ultimately rolled back.

Basically, my answer to your question is that these are two routes by which democracy is challenged. In some cases, the military is not fully under civilian control and ends up acting autonomously. More recently, however, backsliding seems to be the route whereby elected officials—duly elected officials, I should add, that is, officials elected through free and fair electoral processes—nonetheless attack the components of democratic rule.

Polarization Is Both a Cause and a Consequence of Backsliding

Your work emphasizes the importance of polarization in democratic backsliding. To what extent is polarization an unintended byproduct of contemporary politics, and to what extent is it deliberately cultivated by populist leaders seeking to weaken institutional constraints and consolidate executive power?

Professor Stephan Haggard: I took this question as suggesting two somewhat different issues, so let me address each of them. The first, which is explicit in your question, is a cause-and-effect question: Is polarization a cause of backsliding, or do backsliding leaders advance the cause of polarization? I think the answer is clearly both. We do see an intensification of polarization as a prelude to backsliding. But we also see political leaders—from Erdogan to Trump and many others in between—focusing on dividing publics in particular ways, casting society into categories such as the real people and the enemies of the people, and so on. So, we certainly observe that mechanism at work.

However, there is another question that Bob Kaufman and I struggled with while writing Backsliding, namely whether there is some common taproot underlying the kind of polarization we are currently seeing across the world. Our answer to that question was that it was difficult to find one. Susan Stokes has recently argued that inequality is really a kind of taproot of both polarization and backsliding. But we found a variety of different ways in which publics polarize, and not only over economic issues. They polarize over religion, for example, in Turkey. They polarize over cosmopolitan values in Russia and Eastern Europe. And they polarize around left-right issues in countries such as Venezuela, Bolivia, and Ecuador.

So, the whole question of polarization is certainly not something novel in Bob’s and my work on backsliding. But we do not see a single line of polarization that applies across all of these cases. Rather, polarization can arise around a variety of different social cleavages.

Control of Courts and Media Has Powerful Downstream Effects

The US Supreme Court building at dusk, Washington, DC. Photo: Gary Blakeley.

Populist governments frequently justify attacks on courts by claiming that judges obstruct the popular will. In light of your work on judicial backsliding, do you see the judiciary as the central battleground in the contemporary conflict between populism and constitutional liberalism?

Professor Stephan Haggard: I wouldn’t say that it is the central institution where these contests are playing out, but I certainly think that two institutions deserve particular mention because they have what we might call downstream causal effects. By that, I mean that if you can get a hold of the judiciary, and if you can control the press, then you are able to propagate your narratives to the public, and you are able to remove a limitation on executive discretion.

So, I don’t think that the judiciary is the only locus of this backsliding narrative, or of the institutional changes associated with backsliding. But I do think that it is particularly important because, if backsliding leaders can gain control of the courts, it becomes possible for them to undertake other actions that contribute to their backsliding projects. I should say that I am obviously preoccupied with my own country, where it seems that backsliding is well entrenched.

There is now a quite significant debate emerging about the courts because, initially, it was believed that the courts were a block to Trump’s ambitions, for example with respect to the elections in 2020. But now, there are growing doubts about whether the Supreme Court is an adequate backstop against those ambitions. The ruling, which effectively grants him quite substantial immunity with respect to some actions he undertakes in the Oval Office, has cast doubt on whether the High Court can be fully trusted, even though lower courts seem to be standing up to the administration.

Oversight Failures Enable Executive Encroachment on Courts

Your research suggests that declining horizontal constraints are more important than simple legislative majorities in explaining judicial backsliding. Does populism become particularly dangerous when electoral victories are combined with the systematic dismantling of institutional veto points?

Professor Stephan Haggard: I’m really glad that you were willing to give some attention to this work I’ve done with Lydia Tiede on the subject of judicial backsliding, because we were quite excited about that project and about focusing on it in a relatively narrow way.

That paper was trying to make a relatively narrow analytic point, which is the following: there are two ways in which legislatures might play a role in undermining the independence of the courts. One is through their control over statutes. They can rewrite laws governing the judiciary in ways that reduce its independence. They can also allow for the firing of judges. They can give the executive more power in the appointment of judges and in the firing of judges.

So, legislatures can act in that way. But we also found that the dismantling of horizontal checks on the executive, in the form of legislative oversight, played a distinctive role in the process of judicial backsliding. And by the way, when I use the term judicial backsliding, I am referring simply to a reduction in the independence of the courts. 

We have a great deal of literature that talks about the sources of judicial independence, but much less that addresses the conditions under which judicial independence might be undermined. And we were simply making the point that legislatures play a role in that regard, either because they have anti-judicial majorities or because their oversight of the executive allows it to meddle in the courts in ways that are adverse to democracy.

Policy Change Is Democratic; Institutional Dismantling Is Not

Populists often frame democratic politics as a struggle between a virtuous people and corrupt elites. How can ordinary people distinguish between legitimate democratic majoritarianism and populist projects that gradually undermine liberal-democratic institutions in the name of popular sovereignty?

Professor Stephan Haggard: The answer to this question is both simple and complicated. It is simple in the following sense: populist projects have adverse effects on democracy when the argument is made that democratic institutions have to be partly dismantled in order to achieve the populist objective. That is really the key point. Let’s take a left-wing example. I could say that I’m Chávez. I could say that I think the Venezuelan government should be engaged in a more radical program of redistribution. Well, that’s fine. That is what democracy is. Democracy is a contest between different political ideas.

But it is quite different to say that we should have a radical redistributive program and to say that, in order to achieve it, I am going to eliminate Congress. Or that, in order to achieve it, I am going to resort to presidential executive orders or executive discretion. That is really where the paths diverge. Does the achievement of the populist objective require that democracy be modified or not? Because it is at that point that the arguments of the populists become worrying.

Anti-Bureaucratic Populism Risks Weakening State Capacity

Populist leaders frequently claim that independent institutions—from courts and central banks to universities and the media—constitute an unelected “deep state” obstructing the will of the people. How important is this anti-institutional discourse in facilitating democratic backsliding, and does it represent a common pattern across contemporary cases of autocratization?

Professor Stephan Haggard: Of all the questions you ask me, Selcuk, this is the one that probably deserves more attention among students of contemporary democracy. Let me try to frame it in a way that might be of interest to your readers. Contemporary advanced industrial states, of necessity, are engaged in complex efforts to regulate public policy in areas that rely heavily on scientific evidence. And the question here—and we are seeing this attack in the United States—goes something like this: Can the legislature delegate to the bureaucracy the process of writing rules that are often extremely technical in their design?

For example, a legislature might want to clean up water pollution. But doing so requires a whole series of technical actions and regulations that would restrict what polluters can do. The radical attack on the modern state is taking the form of arguing that those powers have to be very specifically delegated from Congress to the bureaucracy. My own thinking is that if we really go far down that route, we are going to be in significant trouble, because we will have court’s ruling on highly technical matters on which they really do not have the understanding or the capacity to make judgments.

So, the “deep state” argument, to me, is quite troubling because it basically argues that legislatures cannot delegate to bureaucracies or can only delegate in a very limited way. This is a particular ideological program aimed at dismantling not just the deep state, but what we think of as the contemporary state apparatus in advanced industrial democracies.

The United States Is Testing the Limits of Democratic Resilience

No King Protests.
Demonstrators at The People’s March, an evolution of the Women’s March, NYC, January 18, 2025. A protester holds a sign reading “Presidents Are Not Kings.” Photo: Erin Alexis Randolph.

Recent years have seen increasing interaction between populism and what some scholars call “competitive authoritarianism.” Do you view populism primarily as a pathway into competitive authoritarian rule, or can populist movements remain compatible with democratic contestation under certain institutional conditions?

Professor Stephan Haggard: Let me start with the second part of the question, because I want to make sure that my position on this is clear. In a democracy, you are going to have competing ideas, and populist movements are going to emerge. They have every right to contest in the public sphere, just like anyone else. We have right-wing populists, and we have left-wing populists in the United States, such as Bernie Sanders. Donald Trump also has a right to run for political office and contest elections on a right-populist platform. We cannot restrict competition. Democracy is about that kind of political contestation.

But the question is whether those populist programs become attached to political demands for revisions in the nature of democratic rule. Under those circumstances, it is quite possible for populist movements to become anti-democratic in character.

Now, in the book I wrote with Bob, we made the prediction that advanced industrial democracies—or those that had become more extensively consolidated—would be less likely to descend into competitive authoritarian rule. We might think of consolidation as a temporal process involving many years, or as a reflection of the strength of institutions such as the courts. But I am beginning to have my doubts. If I were asked right now whether the United States is a democracy, I would have to scratch my head over that question.

I am not completely convinced that we are at the moment, because so much interference has occurred with respect to key institutions—or at least so many attempts have been made to subvert key institutions, such as the integrity of the electoral system—that there are now sincere doubts about whether the Republican Party in the United States can truly be considered a democratic party.

There Is Clearly a Right-Populist International

Many observers speak of an emerging international ecosystem of populist and illiberal actors. To what extent are contemporary populist leaders learning from one another’s strategies of institutional capture, constitutional revision, and democratic erosion?

Professor Stephan Haggard: You’re a very generous interviewer because you’ve opened up a topic that I’ve been working on recently. If anyone is interested in my work on this, we’re running a project called Illiberal Regimes in Global Governance, which addresses exactly these questions.

Now, the way you’ve framed this question relates directly to transnational movements of right-wing populism and to whether they can learn from one another, or whether there is a process that we might think of as the diffusion of right-populist norms and strategies. The answer to that question is quite clearly “yes.” There is a kind of right-populist international that stretches from Eastern Europe—which some populists in the United States clearly admire—to the Reform movement in the United Kingdom, and even farther afield into Russia and elsewhere. So, if the question is simply whether populists can learn from one another and even collaborate around some of their objectives, the answer is clearly yes.

Autocracies Draw Strength from International Resources

Your work on authoritarian international organizations highlights the external dimensions of autocratization. Are we also witnessing the emergence of transnational networks that facilitate the diffusion of populist narratives, governance strategies, and anti-liberal political practices?

Professor Stephan Haggard: Yes, my answer to the previous question touched on that issue of transnational movements. But let me say, at a more general level, before we continue in this vein, that autocratic governments, while jealously guarding their sovereignty, have always drawn on international resources to sustain their rule.

You can think about this at the highest geostrategic level in terms of alliances. In the early post-war Cold War period, for example, the United States maintained alliances with autocratic regimes that it believed advanced US strategic interests. We saw this in Latin America and in East Asia, with Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and others. 

So, as a general matter, it has always been the case that authoritarian regimes have relied on different forms of international support. What this project seeks to address, however, is the question of how authoritarian governments can use international organizations in particular to accomplish those objectives, a topic that I will describe in more detail.

Authoritarian Regional Organizations Deserve Far More Attention

Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
Logo of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), surrounded by the flags of its member and affiliated states. Founded in 2001, the SCO is an Eurasian intergovernmental organization focused on regional security, political cooperation, economic collaboration, and strategic coordination among its members. Photo: Dreamstime. Photo: Vladimir Gnedin / Dreamstime.

The post–Cold War expectation was that international institutions would reinforce democratic norms. Yet many contemporary populist movements portray these institutions as threats to national sovereignty. How has populist nationalism altered the relationship between international organizations and democratic governance?

Professor Stephan Haggard: Again, thanks for your generosity in focusing on some of the research I’ve done recently. We recently published a piece in the Review of International Organizations that explored the agenda of thinking about illiberal regimes in global governance. Let me mention three clusters of questions that are particularly important.

The first is that the major powers, particularly Russia and China, have clearly recognized that multilateral institutions are forums in which existing liberal norms can be contested. Moving forward, we are going to have to pay much more attention to the ways in which China, Russia, and their allies in the Global South are trying to reshape political norms within multilateral institutions. For example, China and a like-minded group of states at the Human Rights Council have been very adept at blocking efforts to use the Council to focus attention on human rights abuses committed by member states. There is something inherently contradictory about a Human Rights Council that is populated, in part, by authoritarian regimes that have no interest in external scrutiny of their actions.

But there are two other levels that are also interesting. Because you are located in Europe, you are obviously familiar with the first of these, which I call the Orban Problem. You have a democratic international institution with strong and specific democratic norms—the European Union. But it also has members that are engaged in backsliding and are actively challenging those norms. I think you and your readers know that it has been a very complicated fifteen-year process for the Union, both at the political level and through the Commission, to determine exactly how to manage the challenges posed by backsliding states within its own ranks.

The other phenomenon I have been working on recently—and I am actually sending off a book manuscript on this over the weekend—is that authoritarian regimes, as we are learning, are quite capable of forming their own regional organizations. And not only of forming them, but of using them for explicitly political purposes. I am thinking here of institutions such as the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Gulf Cooperation Council, ALBA in South America, and ASEAN in Southeast Asia as some of the major examples. I know you have an interest in Turkey, and Erdogan has led similar efforts around this sort of Turkic organization in that space.

What we are seeing is that these organizations are not formed solely for traditional functional purposes such as economic integration. They are also cooperating quite explicitly around political objectives. These include election monitoring, supporting members facing financial distress through lending, and judicial cooperation that eases extradition processes and contributes to transnational repression. So, these authoritarian regional organizations constitute a relatively small part of the global governance architecture, but they are nevertheless a significant one, and we need to pay close attention to what they are doing.

Distrust Can Be as Damaging as Electoral Manipulation

Across many democracies, populist actors increasingly challenge electoral authorities, voter registration systems, and election-monitoring institutions. Are elections themselves becoming a central arena through which populists seek to reshape democratic competition while preserving a veneer of electoral legitimacy?

Professor Stephan Haggard: Of course, the integrity of the electoral system is the bottom line at which backsliding intersects with a turn toward outright authoritarianism. Because I think of an authoritarian system as one in which the possibility of challenging an incumbent electorally falls toward zero. In other words, if my chances of winning an election fall to zero, then you are really dealing with an authoritarian regime.

But I want to emphasize something else about elections and electoral integrity that is equally troubling. It is not only a direct assault on electoral institutions that matters. That effort may fail. For example, it is likely to fail in the United States elections in the fall, and it will probably be well managed. But by repeatedly claiming that the electoral system lacks integrity and by challenging its legitimacy, populists also sow distrust among the public toward electoral institutions.

So, the objective is not only to undermine those institutions directly. It is also to sow doubt about electoral outcomes that populists believe may go against them. This issue poses as much of a challenge in many advanced industrial democracies as an outright attack on those institutions, because it creates a public that increasingly no longer believes that electoral results are free and fair.

Economic Inequality Can Fuel Both Left- and Right-Wing Populism

Two elderly men sit on the street in front of a café in Oslo, Norway, asking for alms on August 1, 2013. This image symbolizes the indifference of society and the state toward poverty. Photo: Medvedeva Oxana.

Your work has explored the relationship between inequality, distributive conflict, and regime change. How do economic grievances, perceptions of unfairness, and social insecurity interact with populist appeals to create conditions conducive to democratic backsliding?

Professor Stephan Haggard: If we have another conversation, we could probably spend the entire time discussing this question. But let me just offer a few thoughts.

First, levels of inequality differ quite substantially across the advanced industrial states, but the overall trend is fairly clear: inequality has been increasing. One might expect that rising inequality would give rise to what we would call left-wing populism. Indeed, we do see this across the advanced industrial world. There is a left-populist current out there. Again, speaking about my own country, you can see it in figures such as Mamdani, the mayor of New York, Bernie Sanders, and a number of politicians on the left of the political spectrum in the United States.

But the important point is that inequality does not necessarily manifest itself through left-populist rhetoric. It can also manifest itself through right-populist rhetoric. For example, it is quite common to see concerns about inequality coupled with anti-immigrant sentiment. Or with protectionist policies on trade. Or with opposition to what are perceived as liberal or cosmopolitan values, as opposed to more traditional ones. 

So, we need to be careful about two things. The first is the question of whether inequality is a causal factor in populism and democratic backsliding. The second is how that disaffection with democracy is expressed through different political programs. Those are two distinct questions, because a critique of inequality can just as easily be attached to a right-wing populist narrative.

Working Within Democratic Rules May Be the Strongest Response

Several countries have succeeded in slowing or reversing democratic backsliding despite strong populist movements. What institutional safeguards, opposition strategies, or forms of civic mobilization have proven most effective in countering populist assaults on democratic institutions?

Professor Stephan Haggard: In some ways, this is the most important question you have asked in this interview, and I wish I had more answers to it. I would simply note that there is currently a strong intellectual current within the academic literature that seeks to focus less on backsliding and more on the concept of resilience. Let me make a couple of observations in that regard. There are scholars whose work deserves much more attention, including Laura Gamboa, who has produced some very interesting research on South America.

One of the key questions concerns how confrontational opposition tactics should be. If I understand her work correctly, she emphasizes the use of legal challenges—working within existing rules rather than moving toward mass mobilization and street confrontation. Such strategies may be more effective because they are seen as upholding shared democratic norms.

Of course, there is always a dilemma when it comes to opposition movements confronting authoritarian regimes: whether mass mobilization, and especially the use of violence, can have counterproductive effects by allowing incumbent governments to blame the opposition for civic unrest.

So, there are many intricate questions surrounding this issue. But I would certainly place the study of democratic resilience high on the research agenda as something all of us should be paying closer attention to.

We Are Clearly Living Through a Populist Moment

And lastly, Professor Haggard, much of the literature on populism focuses on its causes, while your work highlights its institutional consequences. Looking ahead, do you believe that populism is a temporary challenge within democratic politics, or has it become a durable feature of contemporary democracy that requires a fundamental rethinking of democratic resilience and constitutional design?

Professor Stephan Haggard: I’ll close—unfortunately or fortunately—by reiterating a point I have made before, and it may sound simple and obvious. We are definitely experiencing a populist moment. There is really no question about that. At the same time, we need to be very careful to distinguish between populist movements that are willing to operate within a given democratic framework and those that seek to fundamentally challenge what we would regard as the core elements of a democratic society.

I’ll conclude by noting that this extends to issues of rights. Because extreme populist movements can argue that certain groups in society should not enjoy the rights they have come to possess and that those rights should be taken away. In both Europe and the United States, for example, this debate is playing out with respect to how immigrants should be treated. Whether they should be afforded due process and access to court hearings before they are deported or imprisoned, and so forth. These are very basic issues.

If populist movements are not committed to sustaining those components of democracy that we regard as essential—rights, horizontal checks on executive power, the rule of law, and the integrity of the electoral system—then we are facing a much deeper problem than if populism is simply being contested within the realm of routine policy disagreements among parties in a democracy.

Ms. Yamini Aiyar.

Yamini Aiyar: Young India Is Growing Increasingly Exhausted with Older Forms of Politics

India’s 2026 state elections have reopened fundamental debates about democracy, federalism, and political representation in the world’s largest democracy. In this timely ECPS interview, Yamini Aiyar, Visiting Senior Fellow at Brown University’s Saxena Center for Contemporary South Asia, examines the tensions between the BJP’s centralizing “One Nation” project and India’s plural federal structure. Discussing the BJP’s breakthrough in West Bengal, the dramatic rise of Vijay’s TVK in Tamil Nadu, and the emergence of youth-led movements such as the “Cockroach Janta Party,” Aiyar argues that democratic resistance is increasingly emerging outside formal institutions and party structures. While warning of growing democratic backsliding, she maintains that India’s enduring “democratic sentiment” remains a powerful resource for challenging authoritarian tendencies and renewing democratic life.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

India’s 2026 state elections delivered some of the most consequential political surprises since Narendra Modi first came to power. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieved a historic breakthrough in West Bengal, ending fifteen years of Trinamool Congress rule and extending its political reach into one of India’s most symbolically important states. At the same time, Tamil Nadu witnessed the extraordinary rise of actor-turned-politician C. Joseph Vijay and his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which shattered the long-standing dominance of the state’s established Dravidian parties. Together, these electoral outcomes have reignited fundamental debates about democracy, federalism, political representation, and the future of opposition politics in India.

To explore these developments, the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS) spoke with Yamini Aiyar, Visiting Senior Fellow at the Saxena Center for Contemporary South Asia at Brown University and one of India’s leading public intellectuals on democracy, governance, state capacity, and democratic accountability. Drawing on her influential recent essay, The Cracks in the India Model: Democracy Can Be Both Curse and Cure,” Aiyar offers a nuanced interpretation of India’s current democratic moment.

Rejecting both triumphalist and declinist narratives, Aiyar argues that India is experiencing a profound democratic dialectic. On the one hand, democratic institutions have increasingly been captured and instrumentalized by majoritarian political forces. On the other hand, democratic processes continue to generate unexpected forms of resistance and renewal. As she explains, India today is engaged in “a very important old-but-new conversation about what India is and who we are.”

A central theme of the interview is the growing tension between the BJP’s centralizing “One Nation” project and India’s deeply plural federal structure. Aiyar warns that the ruling party has increasingly used state institutions to consolidate power, while simultaneously noting that regional identities and democratic aspirations remain remarkably resilient. The unexpected success of Vijay’s TVK in Tamil Nadu, she argues, demonstrates that “young India is becoming exhausted with many of the older forms of politics.” Far from representing a rejection of Tamil subnational identity, the TVK’s rise illustrates how younger generations are seeking new political vehicles through which to express long-standing regional aspirations.

Indeed, one of the most original aspects of Aiyar’s analysis concerns the emergence of new forms of political mobilization beyond traditional party structures. She points to the recent appearance of the Cockroach Janta Party,” a satirical youth-led movement that rapidly gained millions of followers after young Indians appropriated a derogatory label allegedly used by a senior public figure. For Aiyar, this phenomenon is not merely a social-media curiosity but evidence of deeper frustrations among younger generations facing unemployment, precarity, and declining faith in established political actors. As she notes, “there is a bubbling up of anxieties among young Indians for a variety of important reasons,” and these emerging forms of mobilization may become important sources of democratic resistance.

Reflecting on the broader political landscape, Aiyar observes that “the Constitution itself became almost a living political actor in the election,” while even within the BJP’s own support base “some voters started questioning the increasingly authoritarian methods being deployed.” These developments suggest that democratic sentiment remains deeply embedded within Indian society despite growing concerns about institutional erosion.

Yet Aiyar’s optimism does not rest primarily on formal institutions. While she is “deeply pessimistic” about the ability of party politics and institutional mechanisms alone to halt democratic backsliding, she remains “hugely optimistic” about the capacity of civic mobilization to generate democratic renewal. Ultimately, she argues that India’s most important democratic resource remains the enduring democratic instinct of its citizens—a “deep democratic sentiment” that will continue to find new avenues through which to challenge and resist authoritarianism.

Here is the revised version of our interview with Yamini Aiyar, lightly edited for clarity, readability, and publication.

West Bengal and Tamil Nadu Show Democracy’s Curse and Cure

Protest in Tamil Nadu, India.
Political demonstration in Puducherry, India, in December 2018, with protesters gathering in the streets against the policies of the Tamil Nadu government. Photo: Catherine Lprod / Dreamstime.

Yamini Aiyar, welcome! To begin, in “The Cracks in the India Model,” you argue that India’s democratic institutions can simultaneously function as both a constraint on governance and a corrective mechanism against excesses of power. How do the surprising outcomes of the 2026 state elections—particularly in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu—illustrate this dual character of Indian democracy?

Ms. Yamini Aiyar: It has been a dialectic in some ways. One side of the debate looks at the ways in which democratic institutions have been captured through political mobilization, which itself is a very democratic process. If you look at the history of India’s party system, particularly from the 1990s onwards, we witnessed an upsurge in the vernacularization of the political process as newer regional party formations used democratic mechanisms to bring hitherto marginalized voices into the democratic discourse.

What was surprising about this, however, was that these popular mobilizations effectively utilized democratic institutions in ways that pursued particularistic rather than universalist interests. This was perhaps best articulated through the mobilizations we saw in North India around lower-caste politics, which deployed democratic means to come into power. But once in power, or after capturing state power, these movements often deployed the resources of the state to protect the interests of their own caste groups rather than using state power to advance more universalistic public goods and services.

In the present context, these precise techniques have been deployed to facilitate and enable a far deeper and more majoritarian political agenda. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which leads the alliance governing India today, has its roots in a strongly Hindu-majoritarian political discourse.

In some senses, India has always had this debate about what she is as a nation. Is India a nation of Hindus first and all others second? Or is India a nation for all, wherein our many diversities can cohere together?

At the time of independence, and during the making and formation of modern India through the Constitution, India made a very active choice. The consequences of Partition gave India a realistic understanding of what majoritarian religious nationalism could do to a nation. India chose to reject the forces that led to Partition and instead recognized itself as a modern nation where equity, fraternity, tolerance, and secularism would serve as the core constitutional values binding the country together.

It was an embrace of the idea that India is, as scholars call it, a state-nation. It is not homogeneous but heterogeneous. That state-nation would cohere within the broader framework of the Indian nation-state. I have a political identity as an Indian, but I also possess many subnational identities—as a Tamilian, as a Hindu, as a Muslim, or as a Christian—and all of these identities can coexist within the construct of the nation-state.

The BJP and its ideological roots represented the other idea of India, one centered much more on the notion of a Hindu nation. Once it captured power in 2014 through entirely democratic electoral means, India effectively reopened this conversation with itself. Over the last decade, as this debate has unfolded, the BJP has not shied away from using the coercive powers of the national government to facilitate and consolidate its hold on power.

The recent state elections in West Bengal offers an important example. The BJP was expanding its presence through what one might call democratic forms of political mobilization. However, in this election it also utilized powers available to it at the national level—military forces, paramilitary forces, and even the Election Commission, which is supposed to function as an impartial arbiter of elections—in ways that tilted the electoral playing field in its favor.

One of the most significant examples was the revision of electoral rolls. Ordinarily, this should be a routine process involving the removal of names of deceased persons or those who have migrated, and the updating of voter records. Instead, it was carried out in a manner that effectively disenfranchised 27 lakh (1 lakh = 100,000) voters, a significant number of whom were Muslim. It also opened up a highly polarizing discourse around who is Indian and who is an outsider.

Remember that West Bengal borders Bangladesh and has experienced considerable population movement as a consequence of the 1947 Partition. In this sense, state institutions were used to shift the electoral balance and alter the playing field of the election.

This is why I describe democracy as both a curse and a cure. In some respects, this institutional capture emerged through the same democratic processes that facilitated the BJP’s rise at the national level. Yet those democratic processes were subsequently used to capture state institutions. The election in West Bengal followed “legitimate procedures,” but the use of institutions such as the Election Commission effectively delegitimized the quality of the election itself.

Tamil Nadu presents a somewhat different case. There, a completely new political party emerged, seemingly from nowhere, and surprised observers by dislodging a long-standing political duopoly. In many ways, this is a positive example of what democracy can achieve. A new political formation captured the public imagination and, through democratic means, came to power while displacing entrenched political structures.

India today is living through this complex dialectic. It differs from the caste mobilizations of earlier decades, yet it employs some of the same tools in new and more complex ways. In doing so, it is prizing open a very important old-but-new conversation about what India is and who we are.

‘Democratic Sentiment’ Still Endures

Women from farming families participate in a peaceful protest against India’s farm laws in New Delhi, January 2021. The farmers’ movement drew millions of participants and became one of the largest protest mobilizations in contemporary India. Photo: Dreamstime.

Your work on democratic erosion emphasizes the persistence of what you call a deeply embedded “democratic sentiment” among Indian voters. To what extent do the 2026 state elections suggest that electoral competition continues to provide meaningful avenues of accountability despite concerns about democratic backsliding at the national level?

Yamini Aiyar: When India chose to adopt universal franchise at its founding moment, there was deep skepticism about how a country as poor, as unequal, and as illiterate as India would survive as a democracy. In this sense, India defied the odds. With the exception of the Emergency from 1975 to 1977, India has broadly remained democratic. On the core principles of what constitutes the minimum standard of democracy—elections and the routine transfer of power—India has maintained that commitment.

India’s electoral process has certainly gone through darker periods. Yet the independence of the electoral process has always recovered itself, largely through mechanisms such as the Election Commission, which oversees the objectivity of elections and has undergone repeated cycles of reform aimed at making the electoral process more transparent, inclusive, and effective.

There is no doubt, however, that even during these phases, India’s substantive democracy—the extent to which liberal norms became embedded in the everyday functioning of institutions and society—was much more of a work in progress than the broader institutional dimensions of democracy.

Nonetheless, it was a work in progress, and over the course of our 77 years of independence, we have experienced important moments of democratic deepening. A particularly significant one came in the 1990s, when vernacular parties used democratic space to mobilize and new marginalized communities found representation within the formal political process. The mid-2000s witnessed a major expansion of the welfare state at the national level, driven by pressures from civil society and social movements that sought to challenge a democratic process that had largely ignored questions of inequality and inequity.

What we are witnessing today is a significant democratic backslide. Liberal norms that had come to be accepted—the idea that basic notions of tolerance and equity should define the framework within which democratic competition operates—have increasingly begun to erode.

The capture of the judiciary, evident even in basic matters such as habeas corpus cases not reaching the Supreme Court; the capture of the media; the use of state power to co-opt and undermine the independence of the Fourth Estate; the targeting of civil society through state institutions such as the income tax authorities, the federal enforcement directorate, and criminal law enforcement agencies; and the systematic targeting of opposition voices and political parties—the scale and extent of all this is much greater than anything India has experienced before.

When India entered the 2024 general election, there was a widespread sense that this institutional capture was nearly complete. On the eve of the election, a senior opposition leader, the Chief Minister of Delhi, was jailed on criminal charges related to a liquor scam, with no clarity as to whether he would receive bail. Remember, one is presumed innocent until proven guilty, yet the case had not even begun.

At the same time, the Congress Party, India’s principal opposition party, announced that income tax authorities had frozen many of its accounts based on allegations of tax fraud that had yet to be proven.

The playing field appeared to have been decisively tilted in favor of the BJP and the Prime Minister, whose dominance seemed likely given the extent to which key institutional pillars of liberal democracy had been captured.

Yet once the election unfolded, the voices of ordinary citizens began to emerge. In surveys we conducted, we repeatedly heard expressions of frustration and exhaustion with this pervasive institutional capture. Recognition that the media had been compromised and that legitimate questions existed about the electoral process had entered everyday political conversation.

In regions where the BJP’s economic coalition was beginning to fray, particularly in Uttar Pradesh—one of India’s poorest and most populous states, where caste politics has long dominated—the narrative shifted dramatically. Constitutional rights and affirmative-action protections for lower-caste communities became central electoral issues. The Constitution itself became almost a living political actor in the election. To me, that was a very important indication that a latent democratic sentiment still exists.

The BJP had effectively built a social coalition centered on religious polarization between Hindus and Muslims. That, fundamentally, runs counter to India’s constitutional and democratic principles. Yet during the 2024 election, we began to see signs of resistance within that coalition itself. Some voters started questioning the increasingly authoritarian methods being deployed.

The 2026 elections are more difficult to compare directly with national elections, since local issues play a much larger role in subnational contests. Nevertheless, what we are witnessing since the 2024 general election is a much more blatant misuse of the electoral process. So far, these concerns have not fully penetrated the everyday dynamics of electoral competition. The BJP continues to win elections. Does that mean the democratic sentiment is dead? I would like to believe otherwise.

Many factors shape electoral outcomes, but the scale of the BJP’s use of mechanisms such as the Special Intensive Review (SIR) raises serious concerns about the integrity of the electoral process. It is also important to recognize the role played by the courts. When the Special Intensive Review and related electoral revisions were introduced, civil society activists challenged them legally. The courts have recently delivered judgments that largely endorse the Election Commission’s actions. Indeed, during one hearing, a senior judge reportedly remarked: So, what if 27 lakh voters in West Bengal have been disenfranchised for this election? There will be other opportunities.

The language being used by institutions that are meant to serve as checks and balances raises important concerns of its own. There is little doubt that we are currently in a dark period of democratic backsliding. One can only hope that opposition parties will be able to mobilize and re-nurture the democratic sentiment that, I believe, still runs deeply within the Indian electorate.

Regional Parties Borrowed the BJP’s Playbook

Protest in India.
Congress activists display a portrait of Dr. B. R. Ambedkar during a protest against the central government in Kolkata, India, December 2024. Photo: Saikat Paul / Dreamstime.

The BJP’s landslide victory in West Bengal appears to represent both the success of nationalized politics and the collapse of a long-dominant regional force. Does this outcome confirm your earlier argument that the growing distinction between national and regional political arenas is weakening the bargaining power of regional parties?

Ms. Yamini Aiyar: It has been a dialectical process. The 2024 election was an interesting moment in which regional parties were able to recover some of their bargaining power at the national level. They did so, however, by more or less copying the BJP’s playbook.

I have looked at this very closely in the context of welfare schemes, which matter enormously in Indian elections because of the scale of inequality and the extent to which large numbers of Indians depend on the state for their everyday needs. India runs the world’s largest food program, the Public Distribution System, through which nearly 80 crore (800 million) Indians receive free food. This gives a sense of just how vast the Indian welfare state is and how important it is to the daily lives of Indian citizens.

What Modi did very successfully was to use technology to centralize the political distribution of welfare. In India’s federal system, responsibility for welfare had traditionally been shared between the central and state governments, allowing regional parties governing states to claim some of the political credit for delivering these schemes. Modi effectively transformed this dynamic by tying welfare delivery to his own political persona. Through powerful branding, welfare programs were presented as gifts and guarantees from the Prime Minister himself.

This strategy paid significant dividends in the 2019 election. Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections, regional parties began adopting the BJP’s approach, embracing heavily personalized branding around welfare delivery, expanding welfare programs, and building political narratives around them.

West Bengal provides a particularly good example. The recently ousted Chief Minister was highly effective in using welfare schemes to cultivate her personal brand and establish an emotional connection with women voters in the state. This paid substantial dividends in the 2024 election. Nearly 60 percent of respondents in our survey attributed political credit for these welfare schemes to Mamata Banerjee, and almost 80 percent of those voters supported her electorally. This demonstrates a strong correlation between the centralization of welfare, personalistic politics, and electoral behavior.

Thus, in the 2024 general election, regional parties were able to reclaim some bargaining power. This is one reason why the BJP returned to office without a full majority and had to rely on two regional parties to form a coalition government at the national level.

The story at the state level has evolved somewhat differently. As I mentioned earlier, once the BJP realized after 2024 that it was losing its grip, it became much more aggressive in its use of institutions under its control, including the Election Commission.

At the same time, state elections are deeply shaped by local anti-incumbency dynamics. One of the challenges of concentrating political credit in the hands of a single leader is that it weakens the internal democratic processes of political parties and removes the feedback loops necessary for responding to public dissatisfaction. Anti-incumbency, a term we use frequently in Indian politics, reflects precisely this sense of public frustration and exhaustion with governments in power.

When power becomes centralized, those corrective mechanisms begin to disappear. One aspect of the West Bengal story is exactly this: an overly centralized political structure that lacked effective feedback loops and therefore failed to respond to mistakes, public fatigue, and shortcomings in governance. This created an opening for the BJP to make gains. It then supplemented those gains with its institutional advantages, ensuring that its hold on power would be firm rather than fragile. So, while centralization and the personalization of welfare served regional parties well in 2024, we are now beginning to see the weaknesses of that model emerge.

One final point concerns the national level. In a country composed of multiple states, the role of regional parties in articulating and representing subnational identities has become increasingly important. The BJP’s ideological vision is far more homogenizing, and regional parties have often functioned as a counterweight to that tendency. This, too, helped correct for the highly centralized and homogenized ideological vision promoted by the BJP at the national level. What we are seeing today, however, is that this dynamic does not necessarily translate into success at the local level. In Tamil Nadu, for example, efforts to explain the DMK’s defeat by a new political party have highlighted how the DMK framed the 2024 general election as a contest between Delhi and Tamil identity, or between North Indian and Tamil subnational identity.

That framing was effective in a national election. It proved far less compelling in a state election, where concerns about governance and everyday administration moved to the forefront. I think something very similar happened in West Bengal.

What we are witnessing, therefore, is an interaction between very different political dynamics at the national and state levels. Centralization is creating opportunities for regional parties to regain bargaining power nationally, but it does not appear to have the same political traction, at least for now, at the subnational level. But this remains an evolving space.

Young India Is Exhausted with Old Politics

At the same time, Tamil Nadu witnessed the remarkable rise of Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which disrupted the long-standing dominance of both the DMK and AIADMK. Does this indicate that regional political identities remain resilient even as national political centralization advances?

Ms. Yamini Aiyar: Yes, it absolutely does. It is very important to emphasize that while the TVK arguably came out of nowhere—in the sense that it is a two-year-old party that suddenly captured over 37 percent of the vote share and went on to form a government—Vijay, the leader of the TVK, was very careful to reassert his political philosophy within the framework of Dravidian subnational politics and the ideological underpinnings of the Dravidian parties. So, in a sense, Tamil Nadu was making a choice within the context of its own political and ideological identities.

Within that space, there was growing frustration and exhaustion with the DMK. Tamil Nadu is an interesting case because it is one state that has experienced rapid and robust economic growth over the last five years. In fact, by almost every indicator, the DMK had performed very well, both in terms of governance and economic growth. It also continued, in a robust way, to pursue the social development policies of Dravidian politics that are central to Tamil identity. Moreover, it played a very important role in asserting Tamil identity on the national stage. So, by most conventional measures, it appeared that the DMK should have won this election. But it did not. It lost because of this fledgling party that emerged from seemingly nowhere. Yet that party is not challenging the core subnational foundations of Tamilian politics.

What it is doing, however, is raising important questions about the limits of what the DMK has achieved, while also capturing the imagination of young Indians. This is a very important aspect that is often underappreciated in our political debates. Young India is becoming exhausted with many of the older forms of politics.

Even in Tamil Nadu, in 2016–17, if I am not mistaken, there was a largely unorganized mobilization of young people in response to a Supreme Court order that effectively banned a traditional folk bullfight on animal-rights grounds. No formal political party was involved. The issue itself was not necessarily popular, but it generated a great deal of anger, and people mobilized in large numbers. It was a sign that young Tamilians were looking for something different. Those same young people became the most important mobilizers behind Vijay’s success. One repeatedly hears stories of young voters saying, “I convinced my mother not to vote for the DMK and to vote for TVK instead.” They were at the core of what brought TVK to victory.

Moreover, we are seeing similar developments at the national level. Just a few weeks ago, a satirical political formation called the Cockroach Janta Party emerged among young Indians. They adopted the name “Cockroach” after a comment by the Chief Justice suggesting that unemployed young Indians were cockroaches and parasites. Almost overnight, they attracted 22 million followers on Instagram. Even they seemed surprised by the scale of the response, and they organized a major protest in Delhi two days ago. 

There is a bubbling up of anxieties among young Indians for a variety of important reasons. Vijay represents a very good example of how that phenomenon can translate into political power at the state level.

So, to answer your question, this is, in many ways, a continuation of core Tamilian subnational identity, but expressed in a new form that represents the voices of young India. How this ultimately shapes the evolution of Dravidian philosophy is something we will need to watch closely.

India’s Federal Future Is Up for Grabs

In your writings on Indian federalism, you have argued that the BJP’s “One Nation” project seeks to consolidate political authority and strengthen national coordination. How should we interpret the divergent electoral trajectories of West Bengal and Tamil Nadu in light of ongoing tensions between centralization and federal pluralism?

Yamini Aiyar: In the run-up to the 2026 elections in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, the national government, led by the BJP, announced a special session of Parliament to debate amendments to the Women’s Reservation Act, without offering any clear explanation as to why. This was a law passed by Parliament in September 2023 that reserved one-third of the seats in India’s lower house for women. However, its implementation was deferred because the redrawing of territorial constituency boundaries—what we call delimitation in India—and the census were to serve as the basis for allocating these reserved seats. As a result, the reservation provisions would only come into effect after 2030, once the next census had been completed. 

There was no obvious reason why the government chose to reopen what appeared to be a settled issue. But another important process was unfolding simultaneously. India has been preparing for a reapportionment of its electoral boundaries, a process that is expected to take place after the census, which is scheduled to be completed in 2027. The historical background is complex, and I will not go into it here. But the central concern is that the more populous parts of India are located in the north, where the BJP enjoys much deeper electoral roots. The less populous regions are largely in the south, where subnational identities have served as an important bulwark against the BJP’s expansion.

Several southern political parties are worried that if constituency boundaries are redrawn strictly on the basis of population, representation will become increasingly imbalanced. The more populous northern states would naturally gain additional parliamentary seats, a development that could strengthen the BJP’s electoral position. The less populous southern states, where regional parties remain dominant, would lose relative representation, thereby diminishing their voice in Parliament and their influence over national policymaking.

This has generated an intense political debate, with strong arguments on all sides. The BJP, however, has never been entirely clear about how it intends to address this fundamental issue. What it attempted to do during that special parliamentary session was to introduce the delimitation process under the guise of women’s reservation in the middle of these elections. As a result, both the DMK, the incumbent party in Tamil Nadu, and the TMC, the incumbent party in West Bengal, found themselves confronting a national political issue in the midst of state-level contests.

The opposition eventually came together and succeeded in blocking the delimitation bill, arguing that the issue required much broader consultation and that any reforms needed to ensure equitable representation. In some ways, this amounted to a national victory for subnationalism against the centralizing juggernaut of the BJP’s “One Nation” project.

The electoral outcomes, however, raise important questions about how these debates will proceed in the future. The DMK, which had served as a major voice for subnationalism and regional interests at the national level, lost the election. It remains unclear how the TVK will position itself on these broader national questions.

The TMC, which retains a substantial parliamentary presence—around 29 members, if I am not mistaken, perhaps even more—continues to be an important actor in these debates. Yet it, too, is undergoing a period of significant internal churn following its electoral defeat.

As a consequence, it remains uncertain how opposition voices will coordinate around these issues going forward. At the moment, much remains up for grabs. We do not yet know how the post-election dynamics within these parties, or their roles within the broader INDIA alliance, will evolve. A great deal will depend on how the immediate political consequences of these elections unfold and how the affected parties respond to them.

One-Nation Politics Creates Space for Regional Assertion

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is showing victory sign with both hand to supporters at Bharatiya Janata Party office amid the results of the Indian General Elections 2024 in New Delhi, India on June 4 2024. Photo: PradeepGaurs.

Do the 2026 elections suggest that Indian federalism remains an effective institutional safeguard against democratic erosion, or are state-level political arenas increasingly being absorbed into a centralized national political narrative?

Yamini Aiyar: The BJP is going to use every tool in its arsenal to pursue its One Nation politics. Of that, there is no doubt. It is evident in the way it has deployed institutions such as the Election Commission and the judiciary, as I mentioned earlier, to tilt the playing field of electoral competition in its favor.

There has also been a push for what it calls “One Nation, One Election,” a system of simultaneous elections that, again, has the potential to tilt the electoral playing field in its favor. The BJP has not been shy about using the fiscal instruments at its disposal to squeeze state finances, and it will continue to do so.

So, there is no question that the BJP will pursue its agenda with full force. It will use both legitimate and illegitimate means to weaken regional parties by coaxing them into its fold. Don’t forget that the current BJP Chief Minister of West Bengal began his political career as a very important player in the TMC, the very party he has now defeated. The BJP is not shy about horse-trading and appropriating powerful political actors, using all kinds of legitimate and illegitimate means to bring them into its fold in order to capture power. It is going to play its tricks.

The extent to which regional parties are able to hold on to federalism as a core element of their political agenda will effectively determine the strength of the bulwark against the BJP. The more the BJP advances its One Nation agenda at the national level, the greater the opportunities for regional parties to carve out political space around subnational identity politics. That space is likely to remain significant because the federal sentiment in the everyday lives of Indians, and the multiplicity of our identities, are fundamental to how India understands the structure of the nation, provided that elections remain fair.

At the state level, however, we are witnessing a shift. There appears to be a certain willingness to experiment with the BJP and explore whether, at the subnational level, its homogenizing force is something that the Indian electorate is willing to accept. That question remains open.

For the moment, I do not envisage a situation in which the BJP will be able, through fair elections, to make deeper inroads beyond what it has already achieved in states such as Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and, to some degree, Andhra Pradesh. These are very important states that keep the conversation on federalism alive at the national level.

So, I remain hopeful that this will continue to be the case. But the BJP’s capacity to misuse the institutions at its disposal is significant, and we have seen that it does not shy away from trampling over constitutional practices.

Civil Society Holds the Key to Democratic Resistance

Looking beyond electoral outcomes, what do the 2026 state elections tell us about the future of democratic opposition in India? Are opposition forces developing new organizational forms capable of challenging centralized political power, or do structural asymmetries continue to place them at a disadvantage?

Yamini Aiyar: I would argue that, at the subnational level, structural asymmetries continue to place opposition forces at a significant disadvantage. But I also think that something else is happening in India that we need to talk about more.

If you look at the last twelve years, since the BJP acquired dominance and India returned to a single-party dominant model of party politics, the most significant political challenges the BJP has confronted have not come from the formal electoral or party-political arena. They have come from what one could broadly call civil society.

The first major movement against the Citizenship Amendment Act, which gained momentum in 2019, was a very important moment. It effectively stalled the implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act all the way through to 2024, when, on the eve of the elections, the rules were finally enforced.

Even more significant was the farmers’ movement in North India against the three agricultural laws passed in 2020. Over a period of roughly two and a half years, that movement became such a powerful political force that the BJP was ultimately compelled to roll back legislation that it had originally pushed through Parliament.

These are important examples of moments in which social formations outside the formal party-political process acted as pressure points on the government. It is also one of the reasons why the BJP’s authoritarian tentacles have become so sharp and extensive. The party uses every means available to curb dissent.

Some of the key political actors involved in mobilizations against the Citizenship Amendment Act, such as Omar Khalid, have now spent years in jail without even a basic charge sheet clearly laying out the accusations against them. They have been denied bail for more than six years. These protests are therefore dangerous for those who participate in them. The BJP recognizes this vulnerability and, as a result, deploys state power aggressively to suppress dissent wherever possible.

The new ferment we are seeing among young Indians—the Cockroach Janta Party is just one small illustration of it—may represent another potential source of resistance. Mobilizations emerging outside formal political structures could create new sites of political action capable of placing limits on the BJP’s increasingly centralized and authoritarian project.

My sense is that the answers to India’s current political dilemmas are more likely to emerge from outside the formal party system than from within it. The opposition remains weak, partly because of its own failures, but also because the BJP has done everything in its power to tilt the playing field against it. It will take deep and sustained mobilization to counter the challenges that opposition forces face today.

I am not entirely confident that they will be able to do so on their own. The political openings available to them are more likely to come from these new social formations that are mobilizing and challenging the BJP’s dominance, and which the formal opposition can then leverage during elections.

Democracy Is More Than Institutions

And finally, your recent work suggests that democracy itself may provide the resources necessary to resist democratic erosion. In light of the 2026 state elections, are you optimistic that India’s democratic institutions retain sufficient resilience to withstand ongoing pressures toward centralization, majoritarianism, and executive dominance?

Yamini Aiyar: I’m deeply pessimistic about the possibility of resistance emerging through the structures of formal institutions, formal party politics, and formal electoral competition. At the same time, I’m hugely optimistic about the possibility of new sites of mobilization emerging outside these formal spaces and then being able to exert the kinds of pressures necessary to tilt the balance toward a fairer and freer electoral competition—one that can challenge the authoritarian backsliding we are witnessing today.

So, I don’t know if that directly answers your question, but I think democracy is about much more than institutions. It is also about forms of mobilization and the capacity of those forms of mobilization and association to place pressure on institutions, ensuring that formal democratic processes function more effectively.

It’s going to be a long and difficult struggle. The odds are certainly stacked against us. But I believe that the deep democratic sentiment that continues to exist in the everyday lives of Indians will find spaces and avenues through which to challenge and resist the authoritarian juggernaut that confronts us today.

Rudy deLeon

Rudy deLeon: We’re in a Turbulent Time, Made Even More Turbulent by a Trump Administration That Is Not Strategic

In this timely ECPS interview, Rudy deLeon—former US Deputy Secretary of Defense and Senior Vice President for National Security and International Policy at the Center for American Progress (CAP)—offers a far-reaching assessment of the mounting challenges confronting the liberal international order. Drawing on decades of experience in national security and alliance management, de Leon argues that the world is entering a period of profound uncertainty marked by geopolitical rivalry, democratic strain, technological disruption, and a vacuum of strategic leadership. Criticizing what he describes as an increasingly unpredictable and insular US foreign policy, he warns that “what America says on Monday is not what it says on Thursday.” The interview explores NATO’s future, transatlantic relations, US–China competition, populism, artificial intelligence, migration, and the strategic dilemmas shaping global governance in the twenty-first century.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

At a moment when the liberal international order faces mounting pressures from geopolitical rivalry, democratic backsliding, technological disruption, and the resurgence of authoritarian power, questions about the future of American leadership have acquired renewed urgency. In this wide-ranging interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Rudy deLeon—former US Deputy Secretary of Defense and Senior Vice President for National Security and International Policy at the Center for American Progress (CAP)—offers a sobering assessment of the strategic challenges confronting the United States and its allies in an increasingly fragmented world.

Drawing on decades of experience in defense policy, alliance management, and international security, de Leon, as one of Washington’s most experienced national security practitioners, argues that the world is entering a period of profound transition marked by uncertainty and the absence of strategic leadership. While emphasizing that the post-1945 order helped prevent great-power war, preserve peace in Europe, and facilitate the rise of global economic integration, he warns that many of the assumptions underpinning that order are now under strain. As he puts it, “all these things are in play,”from climate change and migration to artificial intelligence, shifting demographics, and renewed geopolitical competition. Yet, he contends, the situation has been aggravated by “a president and an administration that are not strategic, that are not diplomatic, and that are very insular.”

Throughout the interview, deLeon repeatedly returns to the importance of long-term strategic thinking. Contrasting the institution-building vision of Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, and Dwight Eisenhower with contemporary policymaking, he argues that today’s American leadership often operates without a coherent strategic framework. “What America says on Monday is not what it says on Thursday,” he remarks, describing a pattern of unpredictability that has generated anxiety among allies and weakened confidence in US commitments.

The discussion examines a wide range of contemporary issues, including NATO’s future, transatlantic relations, the rise of China, the implications of populism for international cooperation, and the evolving relationship between democracy and globalization. De Leon also explores how technological transformations, particularly artificial intelligence, may reshape labor markets, democratic governance, and international competition. In his view, policymakers remain overly distracted by ongoing military conflicts while neglecting the strategic questions that will define the coming decades. “The most pressing issue right now,” he argues, “is to figure out what the rules are for artificial intelligence and what that means for the nature of work.”

Ultimately, this interview is not simply an assessment of American foreign policy under Donald Trump. It is a broader reflection on leadership, institutions, and the future of international order in an era when, as de Leon suggests, the questions confronting policymakers may be more consequential than the answers currently available.

Here is the revised version of our interview with Mr. Rudy deLeon, lightly edited for clarity, readability, and publication.

Has the Postwar US Leadership Model Ended?

Donald Trump.
Donald Trump’s first presidential campaign rally at the Phoenix Convention Center, where thousands gathered to hear him speak as protesters demonstrated outside. Photo: Danny Raustadt.

Mr. Rudy deLeon, welcome! To begin, for decades, the United States positioned itself as the principal guarantor of the liberal international order. How do you assess the Trump administration’s apparent shift from alliance leadership toward a more transactional understanding of international relations? Does this represent a temporary deviation or a structural transformation in America’s global role?

Rudy deLeon: That’s an excellent question, and it’s being asked in the capitals of Europe, in Asia, but particularly here in the United States.

We had a period from 1945 to 2016, where there was an architecture globally to prevent another big war. NATO, outreach in Asia—if you go back to the big summit of Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin as World War II was coming to an end, Stalin was all about the boundaries of Poland, and Churchill wanted to reestablish the British Empire, particularly in the Levant. What FDR and the Americans wanted were institutions to prevent a third world war from occurring. One of those institutions was the Marshall Plan, which later became the US Agency for International Development (USAID). Another was, simply, to reconcile Germany with France and England.

The only way that meeting would occur was if Eisenhower returned to active duty and became president of Columbia University in New York. Truman recalled him to active duty, and he chaired the first NATO meeting between Germany, Britain, and France. The alliance grew and expanded. It had different roles in the Cold War. The key was those institutions that would prevent another big war from occurring. It allowed for the mostly peaceful rise of China into this modern period. It also kept the peace in Europe.

One of the downsides, as much as we protested, was that Americans became the policemen of the world. Usually, it didn’t end well. Nonetheless, the intentions were there. That gets us to the 2016 presidential election. So now, you’re right: what is the status of America’s global alliances?

We have a lot of economic changes that are in progress. We also have generational changes going on now. All of those are on the table. So, the current president, Donald Trump, comes along, and he stirs the pot everywhere.

But whereas FDR, Eisenhower, and Truman were very strategic at the beginning, the current administration does it one day at a time. What it says on Monday is not what it says on Thursday. As a consequence, there is an insecurity, a disruption that is in progress, all while hotspots remain. China is potentially gaining economic centers. All these things are in play right now.

Why Strategic Leadership Matters More Than Ever

Many scholars now speak of a process of “negative convergence,” in which democratic and authoritarian powers increasingly adopt similar practices of executive centralization, nationalism, and disregard for international norms. Do you see evidence of such convergence in contemporary global politics, and what implications does it have for the future of democratic governance?

Rudy deLeon: You’ve described the current global situation, which is one of change. In many ways, it’s remarkable how, from 1945 to 2016, there was a consensus. You know, when Neil Armstrong set down on the moon, the population of the planet was 3 billion. Today, it’s 9 billion, and it’s increasing very quickly. And with that have come these new issues of climate and migration, as well as the issue of globalization and economic distribution. 

In ways that the US and Europe were once central, they are now key partners. So, we’re in a period of change, and what we would like most right now would be a steady leader—one who had a strategic bone, who could create a consensus with the Congress, as well as allies. We don’t have that right now, and that is part of the disruption. Again, what America says on Monday is not what it says on Thursday.

Considering the role that the Americans have played, not simply in balancing a lot of rivalries and tensions around the world, but also in navigating their own sometimes complicated politics, that’s part of the tension points that we see right now. Add to that the role of climate. Add to that migration.

Then there is the rise of technology, first going from analog to digital and now, soon, potentially to artificial intelligence. What does this mean for the Americans, for the Europeans, for the Chinese, in terms of their own economic solvencies? All these things are in play. And yet there’s a vacuum of leadership and strategic thinking globally, and that is to our detriment.

NATO’s Enduring Value Beyond Military Power

NATO
NATO headquarters and monument in Brussels, Belgium, the political and administrative center of the North Atlantic Alliance. Photo: Dreamstime.

President Trump’s decision to reduce the US military presence in Germany has raised concerns about the future of transatlantic security. How significant is this move for NATO’s credibility, and could it accelerate Europe’s search for greater strategic autonomy?

Rudy deLeon: We’re best when we find ways to work together and to share common interests as well as values. The decision to remove 5,000 troops from Germany may not necessarily reflect a long-term change. Definitely, it reflects Trump’s thinking. And again, as we’ve noted, this is not a strategic administration. This is something that changes day to day, and we see that in our politics.

I think Congress, particularly the Senate, has had a long-time vested interest in institutions like NATO. They were a military alliance, but they were also a political alliance. And, as we see these new forums—Shangri-La in Asia, but also Munich—the Munich Security Conference has become a key moment in terms of the transatlantic dialogue.

So, right now, you can hear some of the strongest voices coming from the Senate and the congressional delegations that go and attend, while the administration, the Secretary of State, and the National Security Advisor play a secondary role.

So, yes, the administration in power, the Trump administration, would like to cut back on NATO. The institutionalists in Congress, who actually, at the end of the day, write the appropriations bills, have a different view—a more long-term view. But that’s playing out, and it played out in the 2024 election. It’ll play out again in the midterms that are coming up here in 2026, and then in the 2028 presidential election.

The long-term view in America and the world—Americans were isolationists. Coming out of World War I, it left a reminder of why young Americans should not necessarily end up on European battlefields. There was a tremendous discussion in the country on that topic. But, at the end of World War II, we’re back to FDR’s view that these institutions could hold a global dialogue together. And that was Eisenhower. That was certainly Truman. Definitely Ronald Reagan. Bill Clinton, too.

But since then, we’ve seen sort of less of a focus. we’re back to the policemen of the world, whether it’s Afghanistan or the Korean Peninsula, South Korea. You know, entangling ourselves in these long-term regional conflicts has not worked out very well for the Americans, but we learn this lesson over and over.

There’s still a little bit of a residue from the long-term deployments of troops to Iraq, as well as Afghanistan. And so now, we see those changes reflected in the current administration. They’re not necessarily long-term. But I’m back to it being a much larger world, going from 3 billion to 9 billion. And migration—going to where the food and the water are—is part of that story.

All these things are in play. We’re in a turbulent time, made even more turbulent by a president and an administration that are not strategic, that are not diplomatic, and that are very insular.

Are US Allies Losing Confidence in Washington?

You have previously argued that American leadership remains indispensable to regional and global security. In light of recent developments, are traditional US allies beginning to view Washington less as a security guarantor and more as a source of strategic uncertainty?

Rudy deLeon: I think that’s a fair description of the messages that are coming from Washington, and if you’re not a Washington policy insider, you can quickly come to that conclusion. These long-term relationships are at risk. The relationship between the United States and NATO was—is—more than simply a security arrangement. It is a diplomatic center of dialogue and exchange that covered issues well beyond Europe, including the Middle East process. 

When peacekeepers need to go in, you’ll see Americans, but more likely you’ll also see British, French, Italian, and sometimes now even German peacekeepers join those deployments. When NATO countries are deployed into a tense third-party area, the Americans and their European partners bring with them a dedication to the rule of law, a commitment to diplomacy, and an open door in terms of dialogue and exchange.

It’s been tough in the Middle East. There have been a lot of painful lessons for Americans and the French, in particular, as peacekeepers in challenging areas. The Turks can sometimes play a constructive role here. But to step back from that is to invite chaos coming forward. And again, this period from 1945 to 2016 was one of mostly great stability and continuous dialogue.

The Americans still have to come to grips with this intense, intrinsic desire to be the policeman to settle disputes. But indeed, these relationships have been essential, need to be essential, and these will be topics for the presidential debate in 2028.

Global Governance in an Era of Strategic Drift

The Indian Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, is pictured with the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, and the President of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, in Goa, India on May 25, 2019. Photo: Shutterstock.

Across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, we are witnessing efforts by states to hedge against American unpredictability. To what extent do initiatives such as the 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue reflect a broader search for alternative security architectures beyond US-led frameworks?

Rudy deLeon: Good question and the answer is well decided and written about by historians. But I think that you have other factors. First, we have the unpredictability of the Trump administration. They don’t know where they are on Monday, let alone on Thursday. So there is a lack of a strategic approach.

Second, you have the rise of China, not so much as a regional power, but in particular as a global economic power. And so that is changing relationships. The notion of “made in China,” rather than “made in Europe” or “made in the United States,” has definitely been a factor in globalization.

The migration of people, again, as populations increase, from areas where there is not food and water to trying to get to other places, particularly North America or Western Europe, is a challenge that needs a long-term solution.

So I would say that in 2026, we are dealing with a world that is now much different. Not quite 100 years later, but much different from the world that was created at the end of World War II. Dean Acheson referred to that as Present at the Creation, which is about how to build peace across the European continent and then peace across the Pacific. And so now, with these factors of population, the unpredictability of American leadership, and a Middle East that tries to move in a progressive way but, it seems, takes one step forward and then two steps back, all these are challenges on the agenda. They suffer from an administration that right now is not strategic, that has simply a short-term view of all of these factors, and tends to go back and forth.

Why Dialogue Still Matters in Global Politics

How do you interpret the relationship between contemporary populism and the weakening of the rules-based international order? Are populist governments inherently skeptical of multilateral institutions, or is something deeper occurring in the structure of global politics?

Rudy deLeon: I think the generations have changed. We had a World War II generation that Americans would sometimes call their greatest generation. Then we have the baby boomers. If Truman, Eisenhower, and Roosevelt are World War II generation, then Kennedy, Reagan and Clinton were part of the baby boomers in their period. Now, as we’re into this next changing generation that has mostly risen with computers, lived in the digital world, and has more information flow than any previous generation, not only have the politics of the era changed, but the nature of work has changed, as well as the distribution of resources. All of these things need to be settled out.

I do think that if the Americans can continue to have a strategic rather than a populist orientation, then we can develop those partnerships that have been so valuable over the last 80 years. But it’s a challenge. The modes of communication are so much different. The availability of information is instantaneous. I can read the papers in Europe, or the China Daily, the papers from San Francisco or Seattle with regularity in Washington, D.C.. The availability of information has made everything instantaneous. Yet, our processes for making decisions still require consensus and dialogue back and forth. As we come to grips with how we use all of these new tools of information in constructive ways—because I think we’re still learning—that will be a big change.

There’s an interesting parallel to this in terms of American history, and that was the arrival of the telegraph in the early nineteenth century. Prior to the telegraph, information would move only as quickly as a horse could ride from one town to the next. But with the telegraph, the debates in New England could suddenly be shared in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Illinois. And so the politics, the issues, started to change because the regions could talk to each other. 

Now, we have constant back and forth. One thing that unites the ‘souk shopping area in the Emirates and the student in Shanghai is the earbuds. You see young people connected to that Apple iPhone with earbuds in. So that is making some changes as well.

We can look beyond the disruptors in our politics, but also recognize that the economic relationships are changing, and the sharing of information is changing. Now, what Americans, along with the British and the Soviets, did was learn how to lead. They created their separate spheres of interest, but they always were able to maintain a dialogue. I think right now, the notion that somehow everybody can go their own way and take care of themselves turns out not to be a recipe that works. We’ve seen that play out far too many times.

The Information Age and the Limits of Liberal Assumptions

AI
Photo: Dreamstime.

The post-Cold War order rested heavily on the assumption that economic integration would reinforce liberal democracy. Yet today, authoritarian powers appear increasingly confident and influential. Has that assumption fundamentally failed?

Rudy deLeon: I don’t think it’s failed. I think it’s the vulnerability of transitioning into this information-based world, where everyone can dial into the information that they want. What does that mean? It means you’re going to dial into a place where you have an agreement with them. You’re not going to necessarily dial into places that are offering a different viewpoint. So, you’re susceptible to an echo chamber of political thought.

But I do think that, at the end of the day, the rise of the powerful individualist nationalists will have to give way to a common world that has to deal with climate. It has to deal with the distribution of resources, the West and its engagement with the developed and developing worlds of Africa and Asia. Those will have huge consequences for everyone.

At the same time, in Asia, for example, we see the deployment of DPRK, North Korean soldiers, to Ukraine to fight with the Russians. We see that as the emergence of an unexpected power center in Asia. That should be sending off alarm bells in Tokyo, Seoul, as well as Beijing. Because suddenly, an unexpected Asian power has demonstrated an expeditionary capability to send troops to Europe.

What does that mean in the long term? It’s an interesting discussion in terms of what goes on in Tokyo. Thought in Tokyo is less examined than what Kim Jong-un is wanting to do right now. The North Korean soldiers end up with better food and better equipment on the Russian side in Ukraine. So that’s a surprise—the expeditionary nature of the North Koreans going to Europe. What does that mean for the Republic of Korea, which has its own internal disputes right now, its own set of arguments? And then what does that mean for a rising China that looks at the North Koreans on its border and has to wonder: What is our relationship with that country, and what kind of a threat does that essentially mean for the region? 

The Unfinished Story of China’s Global Role

You have written extensively about US–China cooperation and competition. In an era marked by growing geopolitical rivalry, do you still see meaningful space for cooperation between Washington and Beijing on global challenges, or are we entering a prolonged period of strategic fragmentation?

Rudy deLeon: That chapter is still to be written. In terms of China and its integration with the West, it’s a different model than we have seen historically. When Japan rose in the 1930s, it was an exceptional builder of ships, airplanes, and the tools of war. China has those skills. But as a global supplier of, essentially, products ranging from electronics—not automobiles, which Europeans and Americans still dominate on the consumer side—but other utilitarian items, China has to decide: Does it want to be a global military power? It has a long way to go to achieve that, as opposed to being an economic power.

David Miliband, who was the Foreign Minister of Britain while President George W. Bush was in office, came to Washington and said, “Well, you Americans are focused on Iraq and the Middle East. The rest of the world now notes that everything is made in China. That’s an issue for you to consider and to think about.” Power is being redefined in that period from 2016 going forward, as part of Trump’s tenure. How are we going to deal with the economic power of China, its potential use of political influence, and Russia, which is in decline but still has the ability to project military power?And then, despite all of the efforts to secure some kind of regional balance in the Middle East, that’s become extremely difficult.

So agendas are changing. I think you’re right to postulate that question. China’s going to play a big role. They seem to be more interested in their economic role as a manufacturing power than they do in terms of being a diplomatic or political power.

Why Policymakers Must Look Beyond Current Wars

Some analysts argue that the retreat of the United States from global leadership creates opportunities for authoritarian powers to shape international norms and institutions. Do you share this concern, and if so, where do you see the most significant risks emerging?

Rudy deLeon: I agree with the first part of the question, which is that the Americans have been less strategic, particularly since 2016. Can that change? The twenty-first century began in 2001 with the highest of expectations, but here we are in 2026, a quarter of a century later, and we’re once again facing all of these challenges. The distribution of economic resources. Military conflicts that don’t have an easy end. Troublesome diplomacy. 

So, I would say the future is still to be shaped. The next 25 years are still open to be shaped, and they could go in many different directions. The most pressing issue right now for policymakers is to figure out what the rules are for artificial intelligence and what that means for the nature of work.

For Americans and Europeans alike, the availability of work was one of the things that made for healthy democracies. However, the availability of work today is certainly changing. If you have high-end skills in one economy, but lesser skills in another, you’re at minimum wage and don’t have as many opportunities.

So, these are all factors in play right now. We’re too distracted by wars in Iraq or Afghanistan, by Ukraine, or now by Iran. We need to get back to some of the strategic issues that are going to be so critical going forward.

What King Charles Revealed About America’s Political Moment

King Charles.
King Charles III during a wreath-laying ceremony at St. Nikolai Memorial in Hamburg, Germany, during his state visit, March 31, 2023. Photo: Heide Pinkall / Dreamstime.

The Trump administration often frames international politics in terms of sovereignty and national interest rather than shared democratic values. What impact does this discourse have on democratic forces and civil societies operating under authoritarian or semi-authoritarian regimes around the world?

Rudy deLeon: We’ve always had this notion of Jacksonian democracy, going back to Andrew Jackson in the nineteenth century. In shorthand, it was that “one man smells like the next,” meaning the farmer in West Tennessee or Ohio had as much right to economic opportunity as the banker in Philadelphia. That populist battle has remained present in America and has always been part of our political life. And I think we’re seeing it move forward right now. Again, in terms of the nature of work being a great equalizer, I’ll end with that: work, learning, and change. The distribution of resources is changing as well.

So, I think we start not so much with an answer, but by constantly trying to reframe and narrow the questions into areas that are workable in terms of reaching out. But I was just going to add the great irony of having the King of England speaking to the Congress of the United States.

King Charles, along with his mother, Queen Elizabeth, are the only monarchs of that nature to come and speak to the Congress. King Charles was very warmly received for the clarity of his remarks and for the stability of his personality. Remember, the Americans are still the creation of the Europeans, with a lot from Britain, not so much from France, but a great deal from Germany and Italy, as well as from Ireland and Scotland.

I think the King’s remarks were a reminder of our roots and of the fact that we have more to gain from each other. It was also a reflection of the fact that the clarity with which the King spoke was probably a wish that our own leadership right now could have that same clarity of strategy, purpose, and integrity when they speak.

Can the West Renew Strategic Leadership?

You have participated in and written about major security dialogues throughout your career. Looking beyond the 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue, what kinds of alliances, institutions, or coalitions are most likely to shape the next phase of global governance? Will the future belong to renewed multilateralism, competing blocs, regional security architectures, or entirely new forms of international cooperation?

Rudy deLeon: You have framed something important here. Sometimes generations are described by answers, and sometimes they are framed by questions. You have really, for 2026, framed so much that the questions right now are more important than the answers. Will the Americans and the West continue in a series of alliances that will bring stability to the global order? That’s been essential. We took it for granted. It was there, and now that we see it being less influential, we worry a little bit more.

Now, the American reach still remains. Our Navy can still reach places that no one else can reach. China is trying, and it can get to some places, but not all places. And those Americans in Germany had less to do with German security and more to do with keeping the historic European competitions from rising again and troubling each other on the European continent. Those 5,000 US soldiers in Germany were a reminder of the stability that was brought through the diplomatic and economic tools established at the end of World War II. For more than 75 years, we were able to keep broad peace in Europe, together with North America, and for the most part in Asia. So, we did better on strategic security than we did on our irresistible tendency to rely on a powerful military and end up being the policeman in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran.

When World War II came to an end, the Deputy Japanese Foreign Minister showed up on the deck of the USS Missouri in Tokyo Bay and, in his formal diplomatic attire, stood across from Douglas MacArthur. He offered what the British call a kowtow. It’s not a complete bow, but it is a lowering of the head and body. Conflicts don’t end like that now. They end up with murky lines of demarcation that require diplomacy and economic efforts.

So, I think that, for the Americans coming out of Afghanistan and Iraq, and now dealing with Iran, the policing role is not necessarily a successful global strategy. We’ve got to get back to the broader question of how we maintain strategic dialogue. How do we maintain critical alliances? How do we talk to each other when we agree, and how do we talk to each other when we disagree?

History is full of surprises. What holds China back right now is the one-child policy. The assumption in the West was that China would become the largest consumer economy in the world and therefore come to dominate everything. Well, it turns out that, with the one-child policy, there aren’t enough consumers, let alone enough young people to join the Army and Navy of the People’s Republic of China. So, history has a way of introducing its own surprises. And that’s where we are right now.

But can Americans lead again in a constructive way after 2028? That is one of the big questions that hangs over American politics, our transatlantic dialogue, and the role of America and the West in the world.

Associate Professor Stefano Bottoni of the University of Florence.

Assoc. Prof. Bottoni: Today’s Democratic Transition in Hungary Is More Difficult and Challenging Than 1989–1990

In this ECPS interview, Associate Professor Stefano Bottoni offers a compelling assessment of Hungary’s post-Orbán transition and the formidable challenges of democratic reconstruction after sixteen years of institutional capture and democratic backsliding. Rejecting simplistic notions of democratic restoration, Assoc. Prof. Bottoni argues that Hungary is not merely returning to a previous democratic order but attempting to “invent a new democracy for the twenty-first century.” Reflecting on European reintegration, anti-corruption efforts, institutional reform, civic education, and political culture, he contends that democracy cannot be rebuilt through legal changes alone. Instead, lasting democratic consolidation requires the cultivation of democratic citizens, the restoration of public accountability, and the creation of a new civic patriotism that reconciles national identity with European belonging.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

The electoral defeat of Viktor Orbán and Fidesz in Hungary’s April 12, 2026 election has triggered one of the most consequential political transitions in contemporary Europe. After sixteen years of increasingly centralized rule, democratic backsliding, institutional capture, and persistent conflict with the European Union, the rise of Prime Minister Péter Magyar has generated renewed debate about democratic restoration, post-populist governance, and the prospects for rebuilding liberal-democratic institutions. Yet, as scholars of democratization have long emphasized, the removal of an incumbent regime marks only the beginning of a transition rather than its successful completion.

In this wide-ranging interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Associate Professor Stefano Bottoni of the University of Florence—one of the foremost historians of contemporary Hungary and author of the forthcoming book The Orbán Enigma—offers a deeply historical assessment of Hungary’s uncertain democratic future. Drawing on his extensive scholarship on authoritarianism, nationalism, post-communist transformation, and democratic backsliding in Central and Eastern Europe, Assoc. Prof. Bottoni argues that the challenges confronting Hungary today may, in important respects, be even greater than those faced during the democratic transition of 1989–1990.

Rejecting simplistic narratives of democratic restoration, Assoc. Prof. Bottoni cautions that the current moment cannot be understood merely as a return to a pre-Orbán political order. “This is not simply about restoring something. Rather, it is about inventing a new democracy for the twenty-first century,” he argues. For Assoc. Prof. Bottoni, Hungary’s predicament is rooted not only in the institutional legacy of Orbánism but also in the country’s longer historical experience, which offers “only brief and largely unsuccessful democratic experiments, followed by a succession of autocratic, authoritarian, or fully totalitarian regimes.”

Throughout the interview, Assoc. Prof. Bottoni emphasizes that democratic reconstruction will require far more than personnel changes or legal reforms. While supporting the new government’s efforts to rejoin the European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO), recover frozen EU funds, and confront systemic corruption, he stresses that institutional renewal must be accompanied by a profound transformation of political culture. The task is particularly difficult because, as he bluntly observes, “you cannot build democracy with a state apparatus forged by an autocratic system.”

One of the interview’s central themes is the distinction between formal institutional change and deeper democratic consolidation. Assoc. Prof. Bottoni warns against the illusion that democracy can be rebuilt quickly. “Building democratic consciousness takes 15, 20, or even 30 years,” he notes, arguing that genuine democratization requires sustained efforts across education, civil society, media, and local government. In his view, the most important test of democratic success will not be found in constitutional amendments or anti-corruption prosecutions alone, but in whether Hungary can cultivate future generations of democratic citizens rather than passive subjects.

At the same time, Assoc. Prof. Bottoni offers a nuanced interpretation of the emerging political landscape. He suggests that Hungary may be witnessing the formation of a new political cleavage across Europe, one that increasingly pits pro-European and pro-integration forces against sovereigntist and anti-European movements. Within this evolving framework, he sees the possibility of a “new civic patriotism” that reconciles national identity with European belonging.

Perhaps most strikingly, Assoc. Prof. Bottoni contends that Hungary’s current transition is “far more difficult and controversial” than that of 1989–1990 because it must confront not only political legacies but also the entrenched networks of wealth, patronage, and oligarchic power created during the Orbán era. For this reason, he concludes that “the transition taking place today is even more difficult and more challenging” than Hungary’s post-communist democratic breakthrough.

This interview offers a timely and thought-provoking exploration of democratic resilience, institutional reconstruction, political accountability, and the long-term challenges of overcoming authoritarian legacies in twenty-first-century Europe. It also raises a broader question with implications far beyond Hungary: how can democracies rebuild themselves after years of democratic erosion without reproducing the very illiberal practices they seek to overcome?

Here is the revised version of our interview with Associate Professor Stefano Bottoni, lightly edited for clarity, readability, and publication.

This Is Not About Restoring Democracy—It Is About Inventing a New One

Supporters of the TISZA Party gather on Andrássy Avenue in Budapest during a national march led by Péter Magyar on Hungary’s March 15 national holiday, March 15, 2026. Photo: Istvan Balogh / Dreamstime.

Professor Bottoni, welcome! Much commentary has framed Hungary’s 2026 election as the end of an era. Yet democratic transitions are often easier to proclaim than to consolidate. How should we conceptualize the current moment: as regime change, democratic restoration, elite circulation, or merely the beginning of a prolonged and uncertain post-Orbán transition?

Assoc. Prof. Stefano Bottoni: As we are speaking now, at the beginning of June, almost two months have passed since the elections held on April 12, 2026. We can clearly see that the crushing electoral defeat of Viktor Orbán and his party, Fidesz, was followed by the rapid collapse of the power structure as well, which was unexpected. Political analysts in Hungary are now saying that a genuine transfer of power is taking place. It is a regime change that can, of course, be compared to the regime change of 1989–1990. But it is also very different from that. It unfolds in a different geopolitical context. We are no longer in the Cold War; we are in a very different position. It is also different because János Kádár’s Hungary in the late 1980s was an opening regime, whereas Viktor Orbán’s regime was a closing one, especially in its final years.

Democratic restoration is one of the terms you mentioned. It is very catchy and very tempting, but it probably does not capture the complexity of the task. This is not simply about restoring something. Rather, it is about inventing a new democracy for the twenty-first century in a country like Hungary, where, from a historical perspective, democracy does not really offer many functional models to follow.

After the First World War, after the Second World War, and after the end of the Cold War, Hungary experienced only brief and largely unsuccessful democratic experiments, followed by a succession of autocratic, authoritarian, or fully totalitarian regimes. So, we are not merely speaking about the consolidation or restoration of democracy. We are speaking about a demanding, but also intellectually stimulating, transition toward something new. Hungarians genuinely need something new. Of course, when searching for something new, you can turn to existing models, draw on your own history, and learn from foreign experiences. But first and foremost, you must understand what went wrong on previous occasions and then adapt democratic models to the realities of the country.

Without European Support, Serious Accountability Would Be Difficult to Achieve

Hungary - EU
Flags of Hungary and the European Union displayed together in Budapest. Hungary has been an EU member since 2004. Photo: Jerome Cid / Dreamstime

The new government has moved rapidly to restore relations with Brussels, reopen discussions on frozen EU funds, and announce Hungary’s intention to join the European Public Prosecutor’s Office. To what extent are these measures primarily symbolic gestures of European reintegration, and to what extent do they represent deeper institutional transformations?

Assoc. Prof. Stefano Bottoni: They are not merely symbolic, primarily because access to European funds and Hungary’s accession to the European Public Prosecutor’s Office are necessary political steps for consolidating Péter Magyar’s power.

Péter Magyar first needs the frozen EU funds in order to revitalize the declining Hungarian economy. In that sense, these resources are essential to the idea of a fresh start from an economic perspective. At the same time, joining the European legal framework for combating corruption provides the new government and the emerging power structure with far greater opportunities to address the corruption associated with Orbán’s system.

We should not forget that the Hungarian legal system remains largely controlled by individuals appointed by Viktor Orbán. As a result, it will be difficult to initiate a serious prosecution of crimes in Hungary until the country joins the European Public Prosecutor’s Office. From this perspective, European support is extremely important for the new Hungarian political order.

So, this is not simply a symbolic reunion with Europe. It is also a very well-conceived and, politically speaking, rewarding set of measures that Magyar must pursue to consolidate his own power.

You Cannot Build Democracy with a State Apparatus Forged by Autocracy

One of the central challenges facing the Magyar government is rebuilding institutions that many observers argue were systematically politicized over the last decade and a half. In comparative perspective, what are the greatest difficulties democratic governments face when attempting to depoliticize state institutions after prolonged periods of dominant-party rule?

Assoc. Prof. Stefano Bottoni: There are multiple challenges facing the new power structure. Let us begin with the most immediate one: the president of the republic. Tamás Sulyok, the current president, is a lawyer who previously served as president of the Hungarian Constitutional Court. He was a Fidesz appointee and, during the last two years, was essentially Orbán’s puppet. He did absolutely nothing to prevent the democratic crisis from unfolding. He remained silent on all the major political, moral, and legal issues surrounding Orbán’s power.

Magyar immediately called on him to resign before a formal procedure for his dismissal could be initiated by the new government. Of course, this creates the possibility of a serious institutional conflict. Forcing a president who was democratically elected by the Hungarian parliament to resign—or removing or impeaching him, because that is essentially what this amounts to—is not part of standard democratic practice, at least in Western Europe. For example, such a scenario would be virtually inconceivable in Germany. It is very difficult to explain to German lawyers how this could occur in a normal democratic setting. Unfortunately, Hungary today is not in a normal democratic condition.

The challenge, therefore, is to restore a more or less normal democratic order in the medium and long term by removing many individuals who were appointed by the previous regime solely on the basis of political allegiance. From an institutional perspective, this is not an elegant process. It represents a high degree of discontinuity and can create discomfort, because many people may perceive it as a purge. But it is what it is. Unfortunately, Magyar has very few alternatives, because you cannot build democracy with a state apparatus forged by an autocratic system. It is simply not possible. This is the very narrow path that Magyar must navigate, and it appears that he wants to move through it as quickly as possible.

At the moment, public support for this process is very strong. According to opinion polls, more than two-thirds of voters seem to support a rapid transition. That is what he wants to achieve. Afterwards, the real task begins: restoring democracy with new people. Once new people are in place, a new democratic framework must be built around them. At that point, it will no longer be possible to blame those appointed by Orbán, because they will have been removed—or will be removed—from key positions in the judiciary, the financial courts, the legal system, and the economic sphere.

Prosecutions will also begin against oligarchs and against those who made billions and billions of euros disappear. This is the huge difference between 1989 and 2026 in Hungary. In 1989, the struggle was about politics and ideology. It was about prosecuting crimes committed by the communist authorities—for example, after the 1956 Revolution. It was about the past.

In Hungary today, it is about money. It is not really about ideology. We are not prosecuting sovereignism or populism, because they cannot be prosecuted as such. They are debatable political positions. You cannot prosecute someone simply because he is a sovereignist or a populist, however we may define those terms.

But you can certainly prosecute an oligarch for the misappropriation of billions of euros. And if those oligarchs are closely connected to political power—and personally connected to former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán—then we encounter the clear link between politics and business that was one of the defining features of the Orbán regime throughout its entire period in power since 2010.

For that reason, this transition will be far more difficult and controversial. It must address the challenge of transforming wealth accumulated through corruption back into public resources. This is a different task from that of 1989–1990, but it is no less significant. In some respects, I would argue that the transition taking place today is even more difficult and more challenging.

Building Democratic Consciousness Takes Decades, Not Election Cycles

The Hungarian case raises a broader theoretical question about democratic resilience. Can institutions that have undergone extensive partisan capture genuinely regain autonomy, or do they inevitably retain traces of the political order that created them?

Assoc. Prof. Stefano Bottoni: This is a huge issue, and I am not in a position to answer it now. In fact, I do not think anyone is in a position to answer it at this stage, because we do not yet have an empirical basis for doing so. That empirical basis will emerge in the coming months, following the top-level personnel reshuffle. Once that process has taken place, we will see what new people can do with these old institutions. Can they transform the institutional logic according to which these institutions operate, or can they not? This is a huge issue and a major question mark. At the moment, we do not have answers; we only have hopes.

My personal intuition is that a great deal of damage has been done. Even if one accepts the idea—which is not pessimistic but simply realistic—that such a regime change implies, first and foremost, educating people in democracy, that process takes 15, 20, or even 30 years. We should therefore expect such a transition, even if it is successfully implemented, to last several decades. It requires bringing together the media system, the educational system, public engagement, local administrations, civil society, and so on within a new way of thinking. Even if all these societal subsystems are interconnected through a new democratic mindset, it still takes several decades to achieve substantial results—not merely new Potemkin villages or superficial examples of democracy. After 1990, Hungary built a highly successful formal democracy with very little democratic substance.

The divergence between these two realities became dramatically evident after the 2008 financial crisis, when it became clear that the majority of the Hungarian population no longer supported liberal democracy as it had been presented to them after 1990. This is how Viktor Orbán became possible. If we do not want another Viktor Orbán—whether from the right, the far right, or even the left—to emerge and capture the state once again, and if we want to build a stable and sustainable democratic political culture, which would be something new in Hungary, then we must recognize that Hungary has never had such a stable and sustainable democratic political culture over the past hundred years or more.

If we want to build this, we have to take our time. We also need to be patient with ourselves, and we must ask for patience from our partners as well. Of course, it is possible to shorten the path toward becoming a more consolidated democracy. It is possible to perform well. But you cannot skip the necessary steps. You cannot avoid the intermediate phases involved in building a new democratic consciousness. You simply cannot.

Magyar Must Fight Corruption Without Creating Chaos

Péter Magyar.
Péter Magyar speaks at a public demonstration near the Hungarian Parliament building in Budapest on April 6, 2024. Photo: Istvan Balogh / Dreamstime.

Prime Minister Magyar has promised anti-corruption reforms while simultaneously facing intense pressure to unlock billions of euros in frozen EU funds. How sustainable is this strategy politically if economic recovery becomes dependent upon satisfying external European conditions?

Assoc. Prof. Stefano Bottoni: He has to do both things at the same time. He has no choice. The Hungarian government and the new ruling elite can, rather amusingly, be described as a democratic one-party system. If we look at the polls, we can see that TISZA is now virtually above 70 percent, which is stunning. Fidesz is collapsing. They probably now have between 10 and 20 percent of genuine popular support, and they are still shrinking. Meanwhile, the far-right Mi Hazánk, or Our Homeland, which is represented in parliament and received 6 percent in the elections, seems unable to benefit from the collapse of Fidesz and remains stuck at around 5–6 percent.

So, we can speak of a democratic one-party system because we have a democratic party that is, paradoxically, in an almost unchallenged and unchallengeable position. They are in the best position to implement radical reforms because they cannot be challenged. But, of course, their responsibility is enormous, because they carry the full weight of difficult decisions on their own shoulders.

At the moment, there are no meaningful checks and balances through political competition. Fidesz cannot serve as a check and balance. When someone from Fidesz says, “You are doing this wrong,” the obvious response in parliamentary debates these days is, “I’m sorry, but after what you did to this country for sixteen years, be quiet.” That kind of response effectively closes every space for genuine political conversation.

But I understand your point. They have to do two very different and very difficult things simultaneously. First, they have to secure this money. I would say, whatever it takes, because Hungary’s financial and economic position is now so precarious that these 10-15 billion euros of fresh European funding are genuinely needed to fuel the economy. At the same time, they must send strong and unequivocal messages regarding corruption. Here I draw on my Italian background. I was born and raised in Italy. In 1993, the entire Italian political system collapsed under the weight of the anti-corruption campaign known as Mani Pulite—Clean Hands. It was a dramatic reshuffle. Eight thousand people were jailed, arrested, or placed in temporary custody. Entire parties that had dominated Italian political life for forty years—the Christian Democrats, the Socialist Party, the Liberal Party, and the Social Democratic Party—collapsed in little more than a year, between 1992 and 1993. And what did Italy get from all of this? We got Silvio Berlusconi and his long domination of Italian politics beginning in 1994.

Perhaps because I am a historian, and historians tend to be pessimistic, but also because I experienced this firsthand, I am acutely aware of how enthusiasm for an anti-corruption campaign can cause a democracy to derail in another direction, namely through chaos. Populism is often fueled by perceptions of chaos, by the feeling that things have become uncontrollable and that people must “take back control.” Berlusconi and his Forza Italia party successfully convinced many Italians that the chaos generated by the anti-corruption campaign was harmful, detrimental to the economy, and had to be stopped.

So Péter Magyar now has to carry out one of the most significant anti-corruption campaigns Europe has ever seen. I am not exaggerating. Experts on Hungary’s political economy consistently argue that the Orbán regime’s neopatrimonialism and appropriation of state resources are astonishing by European standards. These oligarchs cannot simply be allowed to walk away. 

It is difficult to imagine that Viktor Orbán could still have a future in international politics. There are now rumors that he may be trying, with American support, to secure a senior position within the United Nations. That simply cannot happen. If it does, it would send a profoundly damaging message for democratic governance worldwide. It would suggest that you can cheat, deprive a country of its own resources, enrich yourself, and then simply leave office without any legal or political consequences. That cannot happen.

So, Magyar has to purge the former state apparatus—democratically, but still purge it. That means sending many people to jail, or at least confronting them with the prospect of jail. At the same time, he must prevent chaos from prevailing. The Hungarian public became accustomed to the stability of the system provided by Orbán. They would not tolerate a chaotic transition. You have to ensure at least the appearance of an orderly transition. This is what Magyar must deliver: democratic restoration of rights, an anti-corruption campaign, the prosecution of those who committed economic or ideological crimes, and action against those who organized what was perhaps the most remarkable Putin-era propaganda system in Europe.

It also means confronting those who helped support and finance populist and far-right parties across Europe. We now know that institutions such as Mathias Corvinus Collegium and the Danube Institute in Budapest were central nodes in a transnational network connecting far-right actors across the Atlantic. This cannot be left unchallenged. At the same time, it must not lead to a chaotic transition, because that would be unbearable for the Hungarian public. It is an extremely difficult task. But it is something that can be done now, thanks to the enormous popular support that Magyar has gathered before and after the elections. He has to take advantage of this unique momentum.

Hungary Needs Publicly Funded and Politically Free Research

Several early initiatives—including joining the EPPO, strengthening the Integrity Authority, and reforming university foundations—appear designed to address longstanding rule-of-law concerns. Do these reforms represent technocratic adjustments, or do they amount to a fundamental redefinition of the relationship between state power, public accountability, and democratic governance?

Assoc. Prof. Stefano Bottoni: I am not currently part of the Hungarian higher education system, so I would not pretend to know these issues in their full depth. But what we can see is an unprecedented challenge. The government has to take back 22 formerly public universities across the country—not only in Budapest but also in the provinces—and transform them once again into public institutions.

What is the problem? The problem is that, as in many other European and non-European countries, Hungarian public higher education was severely underfunded. Salaries were miserable. Scholarships were limited. After these universities were transferred under the umbrella of semi-private, semi-public foundations, salaries increased. As a result, many people within Hungarian higher education now fear that returning under the umbrella of a poorly financed state could worsen the financial position of university professors and the Hungarian research system as a whole.

Of course, one can argue that European grants may once again become available to the Hungarian research system, and that is true. But we also know that this is a highly competitive environment. It is increasingly difficult to obtain EU research funding through the ERC, Horizon, or other programs. This is not helicopter money that automatically arrives to keep the system running.

In this respect, the coming months will allow us to test Péter Magyar’s commitment to a new set of priorities for the Hungarian government. I would say: less money for oligarchs, less money for stadiums and non-essential infrastructure, and much more money for public health and public education—from preschool all the way through universities and PhD programs. This commitment will be tested because the university system can only be successfully transformed back into a public system if substantial resources are invested in it. You cannot do it for free.

This challenge is not unique to Hungary; it exists in many European countries. Even if we reject the idea of partially privatizing the university system because we believe it undermines institutional independence and the capacity for critical thinking, we are still confronted with low salaries and a system that does not adequately reward performance. How do we make the system more effective and more attractive to young researchers without sacrificing democracy within it? This is yet another one of the great challenges.

I think the first steps taken by Magyar and by the Minister of Education and Technology, Zoltán Tanács, are moving in the right direction. They seem genuinely committed to this agenda, and I hope they continue along this path because Hungary has a great tradition in higher education and public research. The Hungarian Academy of Sciences, for example, is now taking back control over research institutes that had previously been handed over to a questionably governed, half-public, half-private body. So, there is a major reshuffle taking place within the Hungarian research system.

Personally, as a former employee of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, this is the part of the system I know somewhat better. There is a huge need for publicly funded and politically independent public research. The problem is funding. You cannot pay a university professor—as is currently the case in parts of the public sector—€1,000 per month. It is simply not possible. Salaries need to be adjusted to the current cost of living in Hungary, which is at least twice that amount.

The Greatest Mistake Hungarians Made Was Giving Politicians a Blank Check

Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s Prime Minister, arrives for a meeting with European Union leaders in Brussels, Belgium, on June 22, 2017. Photo: Alexandros Michailidis.

Democratic reconstruction often generates a paradox: governments must dismantle illiberal structures while avoiding the appearance of exercising illiberal power themselves. How can the Magyar government pursue institutional reform without reproducing the majoritarian logic it seeks to replace?

Assoc. Prof. Stefano Bottoni: As I tried to explain earlier, if we think seriously about this in the long run, and if we do not want to become democratic populists who pretend to build democracy on promises that cannot be delivered, then we have to accept the fact that it takes time. And time means not months, not even a couple of years, not even a single government cycle, but much more time—generations.

So, what can Magyar start now, and what does he have to start now? I hope he will begin by laying the foundations for a new democratic system. That means a new democratic framework for the education system, for example. New programs and curricular frameworks for the teaching of Hungarian language, literature, and history—the so-called ideological subjects. Not mathematics, of course, which remains more or less the same under every system, but social studies and civic education.

What does it mean to be a citizen in Hungary? What are the rights, commitments, and obligations of every citizen? What does it mean to live in a democracy? Democracy is not about the ombudsman. Of course, the ombudsman is a useful institution to have, but if people do not know how to turn to the ombudsman, what the institution is for, what fundamental rights are, or how they can be defended, then the whole thing becomes pointless. So, a huge effort has to be invested in building the mental preconditions that allow people to understand the long-term advantages of democracy over authoritarian rule.

Because we should not forget one thing. And this also helps answer your question about how democracy can be rebuilt without falling back into old authoritarian models. All the democratic and non-democratic systems that succeeded one another in Hungary over the last century—the Horthy regime in the 1920s, 1930s, and early 1940s, or the Kádár regime from the late 1950s until 1989—were not at all unpopular. They were highly successful in consolidating power, preserving power, and gathering remarkable public support.

Orbán himself always claimed democratic legitimacy. Of course, we can argue that the nearly 50 percent he received in almost every election up until April 12 was not entirely genuine because it was unfairly boosted by the misuse of state resources and state propaganda. But we cannot deny the fact that a substantial part of the Hungarian population genuinely believed in Viktor Orbán’s capacity to govern the country. The important point is that these people have not disappeared. They are still living among us.

It would be a mistake to forget that a substantial part of the country is still not mentally prepared to live in a democracy. People have to be patiently educated for it. We should not take for granted what is not, at least in my view, self-evident—that democracy can simply be restored by changing a few legal provisions or replacing one person with another at the head of an institution. Democracy is not about procedures. It is about how we imagine ourselves within society. What role do we imagine for the citizen? Is the citizen a subject of the state, or is he or she an equal partner in the social discourse?

What can we expect from Magyar? Of course, we know his past. He was a loyal associate of Viktor Orbán until 2022 or 2023. That much we know. Naturally, there are reasons to be skeptical. One can reasonably ask: how can someone who was once a loyal associate of Viktor Orbán suddenly discover the virtues of democracy? I think that is a legitimate concern. I do not want to play the role of the overly optimistic observer who dismisses such concerns as baseless. I cannot claim that. What I can claim is hope. Hope that a person like Péter Magyar, who went through what I would call a conversion to democracy—a painful one at that—and who spent two years in a full electoral campaign while facing an entire propaganda apparatus directed against him, has genuinely learned the difference between a functioning democracy and a fake one.

I also hope that the political community he has built, both from the top through his own charisma and from below through the TISZA Islands and the tens of thousands of people who, many for the first time in their lives, engaged in politics—joining a movement, collecting signatures, talking to their neighbors, trying to persuade others, becoming politically active—will not forget one of the most important democratic lessons.

One of the greatest democratic tasks in any country is to be able to control your politicians. You do not give them a blank check to use for whatever purpose they choose. That was the greatest mistake the Hungarian public made after 2010 with Viktor Orbán: they granted him unlimited credit. You cannot grant unlimited credit to anyone, even if you believe in them, even if you admire them. At least in Hungary, we have now seen that politicians can misuse such trust. They can exploit it. They can distort the public will. They can hollow out democratic institutions from within while relying on the democratic legitimacy that citizens themselves have granted them. I sincerely hope that this lesson—at least this one lesson—has now been learned in Hungary.

A New Civic Patriotism Is Emerging Alongside European Belonging

Hungary now finds itself in a unique position within Central Europe. Do you see the emergence of a new model of center-right governance that remains nationally oriented and culturally conservative while simultaneously embracing European integration and liberal-democratic institutions?

Assoc. Prof. Stefano Bottoni: I am not a political scientist myself. However, I do follow political science scholarship, and, as far as I can see, there is currently a major debate about the possible disappearance of the traditional right–left cleavage across much of the European Union. Instead, we seem to be witnessing the emergence of a different divide: mainstream, pro-European, and pro-integration forces on one side, and patriotic, sovereignist, pro-Russian, and anti-European forces on the other. If we take this new distinction seriously, we can see formerly center-right and center-left—or even left-wing—parties finding themselves on the same side of the political spectrum.

From this perspective, TISZA can be seen as part of this new experiment, and Hungary as a laboratory. In recent Hungarian history, we have often described Hungary as a laboratory of ideologies. Unfortunately, for most of the twentieth century, Hungary served as a laboratory for non-democratic ideologies. It would therefore be refreshing to see Hungary become a laboratory for something different.

Paradoxically, what we have today is a right-wing or center-right governing party that is, in some respects, the most progressive political project Hungary could have imagined. One really has the impression of living under a popular front, with many different parties and movements brought together—perhaps only temporarily—within a single broad political formation.

So, yes, this could be a sign that the old political divisions are no longer particularly useful, at least in this part of Europe and especially in Central and Eastern Europe. Take Romania, for example. Romania is facing a similar situation. What exactly is the Romanian Social Democratic Party today? In many respects, it appears just as populist as its opponents. Or consider Robert Fico, the Slovak prime minister and leader of a supposedly socialist party, whose positions have very little in common with what European socialists and social democrats advocate in Brussels and Strasbourg.

We are entering a new political landscape, and I think that TISZA and Péter Magyar fit quite naturally within it. It is possible that the political center of gravity is now much more right-wing—or at least much less left-wing—than it was twenty or thirty years ago. I would say that the average has shifted both to the right and toward a more nationally minded understanding of political identity.

Many foreign observers were struck on election night in Budapest by the widespread and entirely normal use of Hungarian songs, Hungarian flags, and Hungarian national symbols. But that is simply the reality. We live in a nationalized space. This is not just about Péter Magyar using national symbols. It is about ordinary Hungarians using them. And, I would argue, they do so without any toxic meaning attached to them. This is not about conquering other countries. It is not about seeking revenge for Trianon or for the territorial losses suffered after the First World War. It is simply the idea that being Hungarian is not a bad thing after all.

We like being Hungarian, just as Croats have every right to be proud of being Croatian, Serbs of being Serbian, Slovaks of being Slovak, Poles of being Polish, and so on. This is more about building what Jürgen Habermas called constitutional patriotism—a new patriotism grounded in a more civic and somewhat less ethnic understanding of the nation. This, too, is something new. Europe, as well as the European Union, is very much part of this process. It is impossible to imagine this new Hungarian patriotism without a strong sense of belonging to the European Union. The issue is no longer “we Hungarians versus the EU.” The idea is “we Hungarians within the EU.” The European Union has become inseparable from Hungary.

Today, this is true not only politically but also mentally. This is a new feature compared to twenty or thirty years ago, when such ideas still had to be explained. Now, especially among younger generations—those under thirty or forty—there is an instinctive sense of belonging to a larger European community. This no longer requires explanation. It has become part of the mental framework of these generations, regardless of their individual political opinions.

The State Must Return Where It Is Needed and Retreat Where It Is Not

Central European University building or CEU in Budapest on 27 July 2018.

Finally, if we revisit Hungary five years from now, what would convince you that the country has successfully completed a democratic transition? What concrete indicators should scholars watch most closely when evaluating whether democratic restoration has genuinely taken root?

Assoc. Prof. Stefano Bottoni: The first thing that comes to mind is the education system. History textbooks—or simply textbooks in general—are a very clear indicator of a country’s self-representation. A high school history textbook is compulsory. Students have to study it for their final examinations. It represents a compulsory body of knowledge about their own country. It is the self-representation that the state communicates to its citizens.

When I see that the Hungarian education system is striving to forge citizens rather than subjects—not young people who simply have to learn and memorize things, but individuals who are encouraged to think critically about them—that will be, for me personally, the sign that something has begun to change at a deeper level.

Only by cultivating new citizens—prospective citizens—and transforming today’s teenagers into future citizens over the next five, ten, or twenty years can Hungary seize the unique opportunity to overcome its long tradition of paternalism, nepotism, and state interference in the lives of ordinary people. So, I think this is the most important thing.

Then, of course, there is the legal system, corruption, and what I would call an education in private property and fair capitalism, which is also largely missing from the mental map of most Hungarians. For many Hungarians, the state is still seen as something that must provide a very broad range of services. There is a joke in Hungary nowadays: you have the state where you would not like it, and you do not have the state where you really need it.

For example, when you need a good hospital, you do not have good public hospitals. But you do have the state telling you how to live, how to procreate, and how to run your business. In other words, you have the state interfering in your life where it is not needed at all, while failing to be there for you as a citizen where you genuinely need its presence.

So, I think we have to reverse this balance by restoring the role of the state where it is truly necessary and removing it from areas where the private economy and civil society can perform more effectively.

Dr. Ümit Kardaş is an academician, legal expert, author, and poet.

Dr. Ümit Kardaş: Turkey Has Returned to a Form of Pre-1876 Absolutism

Giving an interview to the ECPS, veteran Turkish political analyst, legal expert, author, and poet Dr. Ümit Kardaş argues that Turkey is experiencing not merely democratic backsliding but a profound constitutional rupture that has pushed the country toward what he calls a “form of pre-1876 absolutism.” Reflecting on the judicial intervention into the CHP congress, the imprisonment of opposition figures, and the growing use of courts as instruments of political control, Dr. Kardaş contends that the constitutional order has effectively ceased to function, elections and representation have lost much of their democratic substance, and the regime has evolved into a system of “civil absolutism.” He further warns that Turkey has become a “might makes right regime” sustained through arbitrariness, coercion, and a permanent state of exception. Yet he also argues that democratic renewal remains possible through a new social contract and a comprehensive process of democratic reconstruction.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

Giving an interview to the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), veteran Turkish legal expert, academician, author, and poet Dr. Ümit Kardaş argues that Turkey is undergoing a profound constitutional and political rupture that extends far beyond the recent judicial intervention into the Republican People’s Party (CHP). According to Dr. Kardaş, the annulment of the CHP’s 2023 congress, the imprisonment of opposition figures such as Ekrem İmamoğlu, and the growing use of judicial mechanisms against political opponents are not isolated developments but symptoms of a broader transformation in the nature of the regime itself.

Recent events have intensified concerns that Turkey is entering a new phase of authoritarian consolidation. The court decision overturning the CHP congress that elected Özgür Özel and reinstating former leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has triggered a leadership crisis within the country’s main opposition party, while legal pressure on opposition municipalities and political actors continues to mount. Against this backdrop, questions are increasingly being raised about the future of electoral competition, constitutional governance, and democratic representation in Turkey.

In this wide-ranging interview, Dr. Kardaş contends that Turkey has effectively “returned to a form of pre-1876 absolutism,” arguing that although a constitution formally exists, it no longer functions as a meaningful constraint on power. He maintains that “the constitution is being violated almost on a daily basis,” that “the social contract has, in a sense, disappeared,” and that the country is moving beyond competitive authoritarianism toward what he describes as a system of “civil absolutism.”

Dr. Kardaş further argues that elections and political representation have been stripped of much of their democratic substance, while opposition parties are increasingly prevented from functioning as autonomous political actors. In his view, the regime has evolved into a “might makes right regime,” sustained through arbitrariness, coercion, and the gradual erosion of legal guarantees. He also warns that the concentration of power, the weakening of judicial independence, and the normalization of a permanent state of exception have generated a deep crisis of legitimacy and a widespread sense of political helplessness within society.

At the same time, Dr. Kardaş insists that Turkey’s problems can no longer be resolved through limited reforms or institutional patchwork. Instead, he argues that the country requires a fundamentally new democratic foundation based on a “new social contract” capable of bringing together all segments of society within a genuinely pluralist constitutional order. As he puts it, “Turkey needs a new process of reconstruction” because it is “in no position to move forward through reforms or by patching things up here and there.”

In this interview, Dr. Kardaş discusses constitutional breakdown, judicialized politics, opposition fragmentation, democratic backsliding, legitimacy, decentralization, the Kurdish question, and the prospects for democratic reconstruction in contemporary Turkey.

Here is the revised version of our interview with Dr. Ümit Kardaş, translated from Turkish and lightly edited for clarity, readability, and publication.

A Court Cannot Invalidate What the Supreme Election Council Has Finalized

Özgür Özel, leader of Turkey’s main opposition CHP and a recent target of political judicial intervention, attends the inauguration of a cultural center named after the late Manisa Metropolitan Mayor Ferdi Zeyrek. Photo: Idil Toffolo / Dreamstime.

Dr. Ümit Kardaş, welcome. Should the “absolute nullity” (mutlak butlan) ruling regarding the CHP congress be viewed merely as an internal party legal dispute, or does this decision signal a broader regime transformation in which electoral law, political representation, and constitutional legitimacy are being redefined in Turkey?

Dr. Ümit Kardaş: Of course, the latter. We cannot view this as merely an internal party dispute. It is true that one of the most significant deficiencies of our democracy is the absence of internal party democracy. However, what has recently occurred must certainly be regarded as a violation of the constitutional order and the Constitution itself.

This is because elections take place under the guarantee of legal certainty and under the supervision and oversight of judges. This is how the process operates. It is finalized through the decisions of the district electoral board, the provincial electoral board, and ultimately the Supreme Election Council. This is a constitutional arrangement. Former CHP presidential candidate Muharrem İnce has also pointed this out. Article 79 of the Constitution is very clear.

Election results must be legally finalized in order to ensure stability. Otherwise, everyone would object to something, and chaos would emerge. For this reason, electoral law constitutes a completely separate legal sphere. It is not possible for any other authority to review, audit, or invalidate decisions that have been finalized by the Supreme Election Council. 

If you are doing this through the ordinary judiciary, through a court that lacks jurisdiction, and obtaining such a result, then it has no meaning. Legally, this amounts to “absolute nullity” (mutlak butlan). Nothing built upon such a legal void can be lawful or valid. Such a situation can only produce chaos, instability, and unrest.

There Is a Constitution, but It Is Not Being Implemented

You stated in a post on X that Turkey has “regressed to the pre-1876 period of constitutional absence.” How do you conceptualize the current political regime, as distinct from classical authoritarianism? Is the process unfolding in Turkey better explained through Carl Schmitt’s theory of the “state of exception,” or through the contemporary literature on populist authoritarianism?

Dr. Ümit Kardaş: This needs to be explained in the following way. Carl Schmitt associates the exception and the state of exception with law; he evaluates it within the framework of law. Walter Benjamin, by contrast, describes it as a zone of lawlessness outside the law. When I say that Turkey has returned to the pre-1876 period, I am referring to the absolutism of that era. At that time, there was no constitution. We adopted our first constitution, the Kanun-i Esasi, in 1876. In fact, even 1876 was a late date. Many of the provinces affiliated with us had already acquired their own national identities and adopted constitutions much earlier. In other words, with 1876, you place limits on absolutism.

When you look at the present situation, there is a constitution, but it is not being implemented in practice. In fact, the constitution is being violated almost on a daily basis. Under such circumstances, it is not possible to say that the regime rests upon a constitutional foundation.

Given the social polarization and tensions that exist today, it is equally impossible to speak of harmony or consensus. In other words, the social contract has, in a sense, disappeared. In that respect, we have returned to a form of pre-1876 absolutism. This is because those exercising executive power now dominate everything and conduct the process to a large extent in an arbitrary manner.

Of course, when examining this issue, I think one must begin with the founding of the Republic. At the core of the Republican regime lies a monist ideology based on the Turkish-Islamic synthesis. This monist ideology has been reinforced and preserved up to the present day. Whenever attempts were made to move beyond it—that is, whenever efforts were made to replace this monist regime with a more pluralist one, in which legal rights and freedoms would be more fully guaranteed and a more libertarian order established—there were repeated military interventions. These interventions caused setbacks and once again served to reinforce the regime. Later, when political governments stepped beyond these red lines, they too were threatened and pulled back within the established boundaries.

In this regard, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government initially offered hope. It claimed that it would advance in harmony with the European Union, implement the Copenhagen criteria, and build a more democratic regime governed by the rule of law. This genuinely gave many of us hope. Indeed, it was supported up to a certain point. However, particularly after the December 17–25, 2013 corruption investigations and subsequently the July 15, 2016 coup attempt, the regime embarked on a path of re-entrenching and reproducing itself, almost with the logic of a counter-coup.

This suggests that throughout our century-long experience, the monist ideology based on the Turkish-Islamic synthesis has occasionally appeared to be in retreat, only to resume its course shortly thereafter. With the People’s Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı or AKP-MHP alliance), this process became even more firmly entrenched.

You come to power with certain promises. You promise more democracy, more law, and greater prosperity. When you arrive in office, you try to implement those promises. But events unfold in such a way that, while you believe you have captured the state, the state captures you instead, reshapes you in its own image, and draws you within its own boundaries.

This has perhaps become an unbearable burden. As the regime has tried to secure its own legitimacy, almost nothing has remained upon which that legitimacy can be based. As a result, hardening has steadily intensified; repression and coercion have been applied with increasing intensity. Turkey has experienced this throughout roughly the last hundred years, and it continues to experience it today.

The Opposition Failed to React When the Kurds Were Targeted

Selahattin Demirtaş.
Selahattin Demirtaş, a Kurdish political leader and prominent rival of President Erdoğan, has been imprisoned since November 4, 2016. Photo: Sedat Güleç.

Do you see the judicial intervention against the CHP as a new stage in the trustee regime imposed on the Kurdish political movement in the past, the practice of party closures, and broader mechanisms of “political liquidation through the judiciary”? How has the opposition’s long-standing failure to mount a sufficiently strong objection to these practices contributed to the current situation?

Dr. Ümit Kardaş: Of course, there is something else that needs to be considered here. Within the boundaries that have been drawn, it is not possible to imagine and implement a pluralist regime. Political parties, that is, opposition parties, appeared to exist. But their functions also remained within these red lines. In other words, politics became incapable of solving problems. And it still is.

Of course, the state exercised enormous violence against the Kurds, against their political demands and political organizations. It suppressed them. Perhaps even more severe things happened than what is now being done to the Republican People’s Party (CHP). Trustees were appointed. Yet we did not see the opposition react to this in a comprehensive manner. It was brushed aside with a few minor statements. In other words, the opposition also failed to fulfill its duty here. As a result, this process eventually turned toward the CHP.

What I mean is that political parties did not genuinely act as an opposition. Even today, we can see that there is no particularly strong unity. There are various statements and declarations, but these are not enough. Then a series of setbacks begins. Because the regime is so powerful that it prevents opposition parties from uniting around certain principles and is able to push them backward. This is Turkey’s problem. The opposition, too, failed to perform its function properly. It was unable to react where it should have reacted. It always remained on the line of thinking: “They are doing it to them; they are not doing anything to us.”

Political parties in Turkey are structured in the following way: they operate within a monist framework based on the Turkish-Islamic synthesis. They all become nationalist parties. Look, someone says, “I am a left-wing party,” yet a vein of nationalism emerges from within it. That is why we need to change this paradigm, this mentality. We must overcome it. We must move beyond it and transition to a pluralist regime—that is, to a participatory democracy and a system based on the rule of law. But with this mentality and with this opposition structure, there is no possibility of achieving that.

So how can it happen? A new political idea and a new political actor must emerge. This is, in fact, what the masses long for. People want justice, they want law, they want rights, they want social welfare, they want economic prosperity, they want equality, they want equality before the law, and they want freedom. These are genuinely the things that people want today. Because there is both economic deprivation and a restriction of freedoms, and there is neither law nor justice.

Now there is a need for a political actor capable of channeling this reaction and this anger. There is a need for a vanguard force. The matter has now moved beyond political parties. It has been left to the will of the people, to the people’s choice. This is also why Özgür Özel is being targeted and threatened. It is related to his desire to move slightly beyond the line that has been prescribed. The regime does not want to allow that. Within its own plan and program, it wants to carry the process forward through Abdullah Öcalan, Devlet Bahçeli, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, while incorporating the other political parties into this framework as well.

This Intervention Is Entirely Null and Void in Legal Terms

Despite the constitutional provision that designates the Supreme Election Council (YSK) as the “final authority” in electoral law, what kind of rupture does the intervention of the ordinary judiciary in the CHP congress create in terms of the separation of powers and the rule of law? Can this situation be explained through the concepts of “judicial usurpation of authority” and “legal nullity”?

Dr. Ümit Kardaş: I regard this as a case of nonexistence. In fact, I regard it as a state of nothingness. We are now living in a state of nothingness. What matters now is how we are going to fill this void and emptiness.

From this point on, I do not engage in these discussions. When I watch them, I find it difficult even to continue watching. Various comments are being made as if that court decision were valid. People debate whether this or that will happen depending on the next court ruling. I see these as meaningless discussions. Turkey is genuinely in a state of nothingness.

We will now see how we are going to emerge from this situation, and we will discuss it. We will see in which direction this process evolves. From this perspective, I certainly believe that this intervention is entirely null and void in the legal realm.

Opposition Parties Are Allowed to Oppose Only Within Prescribed Limits

Do you think that the leadership crisis unfolding along the Özgür Özel–Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu axis is part of the government’s strategy to fragment and redesign the opposition? Are opposition parties in Turkey ceasing to be “autonomous political actors” in the classical sense?

Dr. Ümit Kardaş: Of course I do. There is undoubtedly an intervention. This is now very clear and obvious. It can be seen that, in order to ensure Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s re-election, a kind of political “clearing operation” is being carried out. What is being done? Potential rivals and candidates are being eliminated. Ekrem İmamoğlu’s university diploma is being annulled. Perhaps something will also be done against Özgür Özel. We do not know.

In addition, the CHP, which is the most ambitious party and currently the leading party, is also being sidelined and divided. Therefore, this is genuinely an intervention. I see it as an operation aimed at ensuring the continuation of the current regime with its current actors. As I mentioned earlier, opposition parties are not autonomous entities. They are parties that are allowed to engage in opposition only to the extent permitted within the regime.

The Electoral Mechanism Has Been Reduced to a Formality

Opposition party deputies, members and the members of civil society organisations had to guard the ballots for days to prevent stealing by the people organized by Erdogan regime in Turkey. The photo was shared by opposition deputy Mahmut Tanal’s Twitter account @MTanal during the Turkish local elections on March 31, 2019.

Considering together the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, the operations against CHP municipalities, the appointment of trustees to DEM Party municipalities, and now the intervention in the CHP congress, is it still possible to say that elections in Turkey retain their character as a genuine mechanism for changing political power?

Dr. Ümit Kardaş: No, it is not. Nor will it be possible from this point onward. I am saying that elections and representation no longer exist in any meaningful sense.

Can we still trust the elections that will be held? Can we trust that there will be no intervention in those elections and their results? For this reason, representation itself has been crippled.

In other words, this is a period of nothingness in which elections and representation no longer exist. There is nothing left. There is no constitution either. There is no possibility of expecting anything from this situation.

That is why I think this way. From now on, the mechanism of elections and representation will no longer perform any real function. It will remain merely as a formal mechanism envisaged for the continuation of the regime.

Indeed, while criticizing the opposition, it is necessary to point this out: the results of the 2017 referendum. As you know, two million unstamped ballots were deemed valid. At that point, the country should have been shaken to its core. The main opposition, and the leader of the main opposition, should have pursued this matter relentlessly. Instead, today we are realizing how severely this process was compromised and how little importance was attached to it.

The Regime Has Exhausted Its Capacity to Produce Legitimacy

In your writings, you frequently use the concepts of a “crisis of legitimacy” and the “collapse of the foundational consensus.” In your view, is the problem Turkey faces today merely the instrumentalization of law, or has the state also exhausted its capacity to produce legitimacy?

Dr. Ümit Kardaş: Of course, its capacity to produce legitimacy has also been exhausted. The state can no longer generate internal legitimacy. Because you are obliged to fulfill the minimum requirements of democracy. Elections are held, representation is established, and as a result of elections a government comes to power and carries out its policies. This provides you with legal legitimacy. But real legitimacy is related to your practices and policies.

If you violate the constitution, abolish the separation of powers, destroy the rule of law, eliminate the right to a fair trial, and restrict rights and freedoms, you lose your legitimacy. That is what legitimacy is. You lose it afterward. In other words, winning an election does not always mean that you possess legitimacy.

Now, in Turkey, the government is trying to derive its legitimacy not from within, but from outside. From whom? It is trying to obtain it from Trump in the United States. Steve Bannon already said this: “We are giving him legitimacy.”

This is something tragic. It is a sad situation. You are deriving your legitimacy from Trump, but Trump himself is not legitimate. In fact, Trump’s own legitimacy is open to debate. So now you are trying to obtain legitimacy from outside, from a source that itself lacks legitimacy.

That is the issue of legitimacy. And I think it is very important. Because the reactions of the people are also related to the presence or absence of that legitimacy. If you possess legitimacy, you become a more peaceful, more stable society living in harmony. There would not be much conflict. If your legitimacy declines, violence, tension, and polarization increase. This is an inverse relationship.

Now look: there is already a crisis of legitimacy. There is no legitimacy internally. Where is it being sought? Abroad. And no good result will come from that.

What We Are Witnessing Is Civil Absolutism

Do you think that the Erdoğan government’s strategy toward the opposition has moved beyond competitive authoritarianism? Is Turkey now an electoral authoritarian regime, or a new form of “civil absolutism” in which elections and institutions of representation have effectively ceased to function?

Dr. Ümit Kardaş: I believe that this is a system of civil absolutism. I definitely regard it as such. It is not possible to speak of competitive elections. There is no such thing in Turkey anymore. How can we speak of that in a situation where there is so much intervention? That is why I think this entirely. Exactly so.

Turkey’s Political Axis No Longer Runs Through Europe

Nested dolls depicting authoritarian and populist leaders Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, and Recep Tayyip Erdogan displayed among souvenirs in Moscow on July 7, 2018. Photo: Shutterstock.

How do you assess the reactions from the European Union, the Socialist International, and various international actors following the “absolute nullity” intervention against the CHP? Do you find these reactions sufficient and sincere? Moreover, do international democratic pressure mechanisms still have any meaningful influence on Turkey?

Dr. Ümit Kardaş: Now, these international organizations, the European Union and the like, are of course important institutions. But when you look at the situation, every state, every nation-state, has its own interests. And certain inconsistencies emerge in line with those interests.

There is also another point. I do not want to exclude the European Union entirely, but the government in Turkey does not derive its legitimacy or support from the European Union. There is a tendency toward, and support from, the axis of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Israel.

There is already tension between the European Union and the United States, particularly in the Trump era. Under the NATO umbrella, will the European Union be able to provide for its own security? Trump opposes this. How will security against Russia be ensured? Europe is concerned about this.

And of course, European Union values are important—very important. But the extent to which those values are implemented in other countries, and the extent to which they can be supported, remains a question mark. Moreover, the European Union is itself searching for ways to ensure its own security. At present, it appears to be seeking answers to the question: “How can we provide our own security?” outside the framework of NATO.

Since Turkey’s preference lies along the axis of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Israel, European Union sanctions do not carry much importance from Turkey’s perspective. The government openly declares: “I do not recognize the decisions of the European Court of Human Rights. I do not implement them.” In such a situation, sanctions would have to be imposed. You would have to expel it from the Council. Those processes do exist. But at a certain point, they come to a standstill.

The European Union is also thinking along the lines of: “If we do this, are we going to lose Turkey?” In that respect, there is a deadlock. The European Union’s influence over Turkey is diminishing. At present, Turkey also has a particular attitude toward the European Union. In its foreign policy, it is operating on a completely different axis.

And then there is the question of maintaining a relationship with the Trump administration, with which the European Union is in conflict. There is a deadlock there as well, of course.

Law Has Become a Mechanism for Producing Political Loyalty

In your writings, you emphasize that law in Turkey has been transformed into an “instrumentalized technique of governance.” When considered together with the cases of Osman Kavala, Selahattin Demirtaş, Can Atalay, and the victims of the emergency decrees (KHKs), has the primary function of law in Turkey today become the generation of political loyalty rather than the generation of justice?

Dr. Ümit Kardaş: Of course it has become that. It has virtually become a mechanism for producing political loyalty. The presumption of innocence has also been reversed. In other words, there is now a situation in which everyone is treated as though they are guilty until they prove their innocence.

There is no separation of powers. There is no right to a fair trial.

When you look at all of this, the regime in Turkey has truly transformed into such a system. I do not know whether there are examples of it. There probably are, but they would be found in very backward countries. It is a situation that can only be encountered in countries where democratic culture has not developed.

Human Dignity Was Ignored in the Treatment of KHK Victims

On 20 July 2016, Turkey’s Islamist-populist President Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared a state of emergency, enabling him and the AKP cabinet to bypass parliament and rule by decree. The crackdown on possible coup plotters has since been turned into an all-out witch-hunt not only against alleged Gulen sympathizers but also leftists, Kurds and anyone critical of the government.

Has the process that began with the State of Emergency Decrees (KHKs) and that you, like many others, describe as “civil death,” evolved into a broader governing paradigm that increasingly encompasses not only certain social groups but the entire opposition?

Dr. Ümit Kardaş: Yes, it already has. The situation of the KHK victims is already grave. Approximately 125,000 people were dismissed from public service. Their legal rights were never recognized. Judicial processes did not function.

Many injustices were caused through these decrees, and they continue to this day. These people have no possibility of serving as witnesses in certain contexts or carrying out transactions at land registry offices. Together with their families, they constitute a broad segment of society, affecting a community of more than one million people.

I believe that what has occurred here is an injustice. I believe that human dignity has been disregarded.

“Civil death” can certainly be defined in this way. I think this is a very serious problem, a deep social wound.

Of course, the situation of the KHK victims will not be remedied under the current circumstances. But I believe that, following a change of government, their rights should be restored.

And then there are Osman Kavala, Selahattin Demirtaş, Can Atalay, and others. All of these people have been victimized. Think about it: they have lost the best years of their lives, and there is no real basis for the accusations leveled against them.

There are also judgments of the European Court of Human Rights concerning these individuals, and those judgments are not being implemented. These are grave consequences. All of these are actions and practices that can be regarded as violations of the Constitution.

The Regime Silences Those Who Move Beyond Prescribed Limits

You argue that, as the judiciary in Turkey lost its independence, the opposition continued for a long time to conduct politics as if the rule of law still existed. Do you think the current crisis is also a consequence of the opposition’s prolonged misreading of democratic backsliding?

Dr. Ümit Kardaş: I have stated this before as well. The opposition either misread the situation or failed to read it at all. Or perhaps it understood it but was unable to do what was necessary.

Certainly, the opposition also bears responsibility for this democratic backsliding. However, within the regime framework we have described, we do not believe that the opposition has ever been a genuine opposition.

Nor is there any real possibility of acting as a genuine opposition. Look at what happened to Özgür Özel. Perhaps he wanted to move slightly beyond the prescribed line. He was immediately punished, and Kılıçdaroğlu was brought in, entirely unrelatedly. This is an intervention carried out solely to prevent votes from shifting toward the CHP and to ensure the continuation of the AKP’s rule.

In that respect, yes, we are witnessing that the opposition does not really have such a possibility. The moment you step beyond those limits, you are punished. In other words, the system, the regime, either destroys you, renders you ineffective, or simply ignores you.

As the Turkish poet Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar put it, I think you become the victim of an “assassination by silence” (sükût suikastı). In the end, that is what happens.

Democracy Cannot Exist Under Such Heavy Centralization

You argue that the centralized structure of the state is one of the greatest obstacles to democratization. Do the recent interventions against the CHP make it necessary to rethink debates on decentralization, local democracy, and pluralist governance in Turkey?

Dr. Ümit Kardaş: It makes it absolutely necessary. Look, Turkey has a very rigid centralized structure. The administrative system is still a colonial system. It is a system of a colonial type. You appoint governors from the center, district governors from the center, directors of health, directors of national education, directors of public works and zoning from the center. The state has penetrated into the capillaries of society. In other words, there is a process of statization. Democracy cannot exist under such heavy colonization. It is unacceptable. Perhaps some dictator in a remote corner of Africa could administer such a system, but you cannot call this democracy.

Decentralization is extraordinarily important, and pluralistic participation is a fundamental principle of democracy. In fact, I have written extensively about this in my articles. It is called consociational democracy. There are many examples of consociational democracy in the world. They exist everywhere. Even countries that were once highly underdeveloped transferred powers from the center to the regions. Because democracy takes place at the local level.

You need local parliaments, and you need to transfer certain powers from the center to them. Then the democratic system begins to function there. If necessary, when a law concerning the region is being discussed in a regional parliament, local citizens should be able to go there and speak for five minutes. In this way, democratic education, civic culture, and democratic habits develop.

If you do not do this, if you try to do everything from the center, you simply cannot manage it. It will not work. And then you will be unable to solve any problems. Because regions have their own specific issues. Only the people of those regions know them, and only regional parliaments can address them. This is how the system works in Europe.

This does not harm the unitary structure of the state. On the contrary, it strengthens the unitary state’s capacity to represent political unity. If you transfer powers in this way, democracy develops.

Let us look at the process of resolving the Kurdish question in Turkey. In my view, the process is being handled incorrectly in certain respects. There is no point in conducting a process solely through Abdullah Öcalan. Abdullah Öcalan is already someone who is close to reaching an accommodation with the state. But Selahattin Demirtaş remains in prison. There is considerable interest in him among the Kurdish electorate. And Selahattin Demirtaş’s democratic stance resonates with a broad audience. Therefore, this issue should be resolved together with him and on the basis of Turkey’s democratization.

What the government wants to do is proceed along the line of: “How can I win this election? How can I secure Kurdish support?” The MHP itself says: “Citizenship is not open to debate.” It has already drawn its red lines by saying that this cannot be discussed and that cannot be discussed.

If none of these issues are going to be debated, and if the outcome is merely that some people are released from prison—of course they should be released. I support a general political amnesty. But limiting the process to that alone carries no real meaning. If that happens, the regime will simply reinforce itself by making a few concessions. That is not our objective.

Our objective should be this: we are currently in a state of nothingness. We have entered a period without a constitution. Therefore, we need a new social contract. To achieve this, we need to open a blank page, set taboos aside, and sit down together again. All actors, all stakeholders, and all segments of society must be included in this process. We must write the principles together on that blank page. What principles should guide us if we are to live together with our differences and under the protection of the law? On what principles will we agree?

This is what Turkey must do. Turkey needs a new process of reconstruction. Turkey is in no position to move forward through reforms or by patching things up here and there. Not at this moment.

Authoritarianism in Turkey Is Drifting Toward Totalitarianism

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan watching the August 30 Victory Day Parade in Ankara, Turkey on August 30, 2014. Photo by Mustafa Kirazli.

Do you think that the lawlessness, arbitrariness, and political polarization observed in Turkey in recent years have created a widespread sense of “helplessness” and “political ineffectiveness” within society? Can we say that authoritarian regimes become entrenched precisely on this psychological foundation?

Dr. Ümit Kardaş: Yes, we can certainly say that. Unfortunately, this is how things are unfolding. We can think about it in the way you suggest.

There is an authoritarian regime in Turkey, but it appears almost as if authoritarianism is transforming into totalitarianism. The separation of legislative, executive, and judicial powers has been completely eliminated, and everything has been concentrated in the executive. The right to a fair trial has also disappeared.

In that case, legal security no longer exists. Then what are we supposed to debate? The nature of the regime is no longer the most important issue, because the regime has already destroyed the very foundation upon which it rests. Even authoritarian regimes may have a certain legal framework, but in our case arbitrariness has reached an extreme point. In other words, you can do whatever you want on whatever grounds you choose.

For a long time, I have described the regime in Turkey as a “might makes right regime.” You see one power at the center forming an alliance with another power and saying, “Let’s beat this person.” They say, “He misbehaved,” and they beat him. Then you look again, and another power forms an alliance with yet another power, and this time they victimize someone else.

Turkey needs to escape this impasse. Instead of constantly joining forces to beat one another, we need to think about how to ensure legal security for everyone—for Kurds, for Alevis, for non-Muslims; in other words, for all citizens. Regardless of gender differences, how are we going to guarantee this security for everyone? That is what we should be pursuing.

Instead, we act according to the mentality of “Let us obtain power and govern through power.” We do this as if law still exists. It is made to appear as though law exists, but there is no law. Nor can this have a legal foundation.

There is only naked violence. The reason the state is granted a monopoly on violence is the assumption that it will use that violence within the framework of legal rules. Otherwise, when state power—governmental power—uses violence in a naked and unrestrained manner, it becomes no different from any other organization that does not operate according to law.

There is also something else I would like to say. The issue of political struggle in Turkey is causing us to drift outside the legal framework. The permanent state of exception that law professor Adem Sözüer has spoken about is not seen merely as something created through decrees. He argues that it is reinforced through criminal law. In other words, by incorporating the rules of the law of war into criminal law, a practice emerges in which the opposition is treated as if it were an enemy.

This is also the observation of Jean-Claude Paye, who, if I am not mistaken, is a French diplomat and writer. It is a correct observation. As I said earlier, this is a century-long process. Our penal code itself was derived from a fascist penal code. When the penal code was rewritten in 2005, many of these provisions were preserved exactly as they were. There are still numerous articles that remain from that fascist penal code.

What does this mean? It means importing the principles of enemy law and the law of war and applying them against political opponents.

Now, leave aside the decrees. If your regime’s penal code is already structured in this way, and if there is also an Anti-Terror Law, then how are you going to build a democracy and a state governed by the rule of law with all of these instruments?

What emerges, then, is this: beyond this permanent state of exception, a constituent law is needed. Perhaps even a somewhat abstract law.

The Future Lies in Reconstruction, Not Restoration

Finally, in light of all these developments, do you think that Turkey still has the potential for democratic restoration? Or is the issue now, rather than restoring the existing system, to develop what you have emphasized as a “new democratic social contract” and a new constituent political imagination?

Dr. Ümit Kardaş: Definitely the latter. I have already explained why the former is not possible. This is now a regime that has completed its course, surviving with difficulty and increasingly through violence. That is what Turkey needs, what Turkish society needs, and what the Turkish people need. I believe that is also what the Turkish people want.

But how will this happen? By which path will it happen, and through which political party? We have already discussed the condition of these political parties. That is why a new construction is needed. And, as I said, we are moving toward a new construction on a blank page. We will all come together again.

This is precisely what Nelson Mandela did in South Africa. After serving his prison sentence, he emerged and was able to transform the apartheid regime through a certain compromise, without succumbing to feelings of revenge. Today, South Africa has 11 official languages, all of which are recognized in the constitution. And there are also nine autonomous regions.

There are many examples of this in different countries. This can also be overcome. But Turkey has now reached a point where society is no longer in a position to carry this burden. This society deserves much better things.

Instead of following Trump and those like him, Turkey should seek to improve its relations with the European Union. The European Union will also provide support in this regard. Ultimately, certain standards will be attained. Even if Turkey does not become a member of the European Union, it is important to adopt those standards.

The issue is not becoming Western-like, but being compatible with the West. Because under the previous (Kemalist) regime, we also had the mentality that we would become Western-like, dress like them, act like them, and become modern. But when it came to democracy and the rule of law, there was nothing there. There is no meaning in such an approach. You do not need to become Western-like. Be compatible with the West. That is the whole issue. Turkey should be able to make its choice in that direction.

AI

Tom Davidson: Superintelligent AI Could Be Used to Undermine Democracy or Entrench Authoritarian Power

In this ECPS interview, Tom Davidson, one of the leading analysts examining the long-term implications of AGI governance, warns that humanity may be approaching an “intelligence explosion” in which AI systems rapidly improve themselves in a runaway feedback loop, potentially compressing decades of technological development into mere years. Examining the geopolitical, democratic, and civilizational implications of advanced AI, Davidson argues that democratic institutions may struggle to govern machine-speed innovation, while frontier AI systems could generate unprecedented concentrations of political, corporate, and military power. The interview explores AI-driven democratic backsliding, geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China, technocratic oligarchy, AI safety governance, and the future of political agency itself under conditions of accelerating artificial intelligence.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

Giving an interview to the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Tom Davidson warns that the world may be approaching an unprecedented technological rupture in which advanced artificial intelligence fundamentally transforms not only economic production and geopolitical competition, but also the very foundations of democracy, sovereignty, and political agency. A Senior Research Fellow at Forethought and one of the leading analysts examining the long-term implications of AGI governance, Davidson argues that humanity may now be entering an era in which “AI systems create even more capable AI systems in a runaway feedback loop of accelerating progress.” 

Rather than treating AI merely as a question of productivity gains or consumer innovation, Davidson situates artificial intelligence within a much broader framework of systemic political transformation. In particular, he warns that the prospect of an “intelligence explosion” could compress decades of technological development into mere years, leaving democratic institutions structurally incapable of adapting to the speed of change. As he starkly observes, there is “perhaps around a 50 percent chance within the next five years” that humanity could witness such a transition, while “political institutions have no serious strategy” for understanding or governing it. 

For Davidson, the central danger is not simply technological disruption, but the possibility that accelerating AI systems may fundamentally outpace the institutional rhythms upon which liberal democracy depends. Throughout the interview, he repeatedly raises concerns about whether democratic governance — with its reliance on deliberation, elections, legal procedures, and bureaucratic processes — can continue functioning effectively under conditions of machine-speed innovation and geopolitical AI competition. In his account, societies may soon confront a world in which political crises, military confrontations, and technological breakthroughs unfold far faster than human institutions are capable of processing.

Davidson also emphasizes that advanced AI could become the decisive strategic resource of the twenty-first century. In one of the interview’s most striking arguments, he warns that the United States may eventually exercise near-unilateral control over frontier AI systems, creating a world in which “the most powerful AI systems are overwhelmingly controlled by the United States.” In such a scenario, access to superintelligent systems could become as essential to national security as access to elite human talent is today, fundamentally reshaping alliances, sovereignty, and global power hierarchies.

At the same time, Davidson warns that AI may also generate unprecedented concentrations of political and corporate power within states themselves. Because AI systems can potentially be programmed for “complete obedience,” he argues, governments or corporations could command enormous “legions” of AI workers, creating forms of technocratic centralization historically impossible under human bureaucratic systems. 

Yet despite these stark warnings, Davidson does not present technological acceleration as inevitably fatal to democracy. On the contrary, he argues that AI could also be used to strengthen democratic responsiveness, improve governance, and help societies coordinate more effectively under conditions of rapid change. The crucial question, in his view, is whether democratic societies can develop institutional mechanisms capable of governing AI before AI-driven transformations outpace human political adaptation altogether.

Here is the revised version of our interview with Tom Davidson, lightly edited for clarity and readability.

AI Could Advance Faster Than Democracy Can Adapt

Tom Davidson is a Senior Research Fellow at Forethought and one of the leading analysts examining the long-term implications of AGI governance.

Tom Davidson, welcome. To begin, in your article “The Danger of Runaway AI,” you warn that advanced AI systems could generate forms of accelerating technological progress that quickly outpace human institutional adaptation. How serious do you believe the risk of a genuine “runaway” intelligence dynamic has become, and are current political systems even conceptually prepared to govern such a transition?

Tom Davidson: As the years go by, it is becoming increasingly plausible that we may be approaching an intelligence explosion — a scenario in which AI systems create even more capable AI systems in a runaway feedback loop of accelerating progress. What is striking to me is that my professional life is centered around the Bay Area, particularly San Francisco, where many of the leading AI companies are based and where a great deal of serious thinking about these technologies is taking place. Within that ecosystem, the possibility of an intelligence explosion occurring within the next few years — and of developing superintelligent AI systems — is treated as a very real possibility. Among many people working closely on these technologies, this is almost taken for granted.

Yet when you speak to people outside that environment, there is often very little awareness of where many experts believe the technology may be heading. Public discussion still tends to focus on the mistakes made by relatively cheap, consumer-facing AI systems or on the fact that they remain imperfect at handling simple tasks or understanding human speech. As a result, these questions are still largely absent from mainstream political debate.

My own view is that there is a meaningful probability — perhaps around a 50 percent chance within the next five years — that we could see an intelligence explosion leading to extremely rapid advances in AI capability. At the moment, however, political institutions have no serious strategy for understanding what such a transition would mean, how to monitor it as it unfolds, or how to manage the profound risks it could create. Those risks include the possibility of advanced AI systems acting against human interests, the danger of AI companies using superintelligent technologies to undermine democratic processes because of the extraordinary power they would possess, and the risk of governments appropriating these systems for authoritarian purposes. I think there needs to be a much broader societal conversation about these risks.

A Secretive Intelligence Explosion Would Be Hard to Govern

Across your recent work, you distinguish between multiple feedback loops—software, chip technology, and chip production—that could enable accelerating AI development. Which of these feedback loops do you see as most politically destabilizing, and why?

Tom Davidson: That is a great question. I think the most politically destabilizing feedback loop is the software feedback loop. The reason is that designing better chips, manufacturing them, and building new data centers all take many months, if not years. Because of that, society can at least see those developments unfolding in real time. We are already witnessing this with the rapid expansion of large-scale data centers, and people are not being taken entirely by surprise. This makes hardware-driven AI progress comparatively observable and legible. It naturally generates a democratic conversation because people can physically see what is happening. In the United States, for example, communities are already pushing back against the construction of additional data centers because these developments are visible and tangible.

The software feedback loop is fundamentally different because it does not require additional chips or new data centers. The underlying hardware infrastructure can remain constant while progress comes instead from improvements in algorithms and, potentially, in the data used to train AI systems. What makes this especially concerning is, first, that it is far less observable. A company could improve its algorithms and AI systems extremely rapidly without anyone outside the organization fully understanding what is happening. In that sense, you could have a kind of secretive intelligence explosion, which obviously creates profound governance challenges.

Second, software-driven progress could happen much faster than hardware-driven progress. Building data centers is constrained by the realities of construction, permitting, and infrastructure development, all of which take considerable time. But algorithmic improvement is not constrained by those same physical bottlenecks. As a result, it is conceivable that AI development could accelerate extraordinarily quickly — perhaps compressing what would normally amount to ten years of progress into a single year.

If you look back only ten years, to around 2015, large language models did not even exist. AI systems could not really understand sentences or generate coherent paragraphs. They were capable in some highly specialized domains, such as particular games, but they lacked anything resembling broad general intelligence.

Today, however, AI systems are approaching the frontier in areas such as mathematics, cybersecurity, software engineering, and even basic scientific research. They remain limited in many ways, of course, but the scale of progress over the past decade has been remarkable.

Now imagine compressing that level of progress into a single year, beginning from a point where AI systems are already comparable to humans in AI research itself. That is the moment when the feedback loop of AI improving AI could truly begin. The outcome could be AI systems with superhuman capabilities across a wide range of research and development domains — systems capable of developing dangerous technologies, advanced weapons, sophisticated surveillance systems, or new forms of mass persuasion.

Of course, this remains a possibility rather than a certainty. It is not guaranteed that the software feedback loop would continue indefinitely because bottlenecks may emerge that slow progress down. I have done a great deal of research on whether such bottlenecks are likely to appear. But the bottom line is that it seems entirely plausible that they may not. Perhaps it is something like a 50–50 scenario.

So, we may be facing a substantial probability of an enormous amount of AI progress compressed into a very short period of time — progress that is difficult to observe, unconstrained by the need to build new infrastructure, and therefore extremely difficult to subject to democratic oversight. From the standpoint of governance and democratic accountability, that is the most concerning feedback loop.

Society May Not Understand Where AI Is Heading

Amsterdam, people.
Crowds gather along the quay to visit tall ships during Sail 2010 in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, on August 19, 2010. Photo: Jan Kranendonk.

In “Once AI Research is Automated, Will AI Progress Accelerate?” you argue that AI-driven research could eventually replace human-driven progress. What would this mean for democratic governance if scientific and technological innovation increasingly escape meaningful human comprehension and oversight?

Tom Davidson: I think it would fundamentally undermine many of the implicit mechanisms through which societies currently govern new technologies. Take something like Facebook, for example. It was certainly not governed perfectly, but at least as the technology was developed, deployed, and began reshaping society, there was a broader public conversation about its effects. People debated whether aspects of Facebook were harmful to mental health, damaging to public discourse, or socially corrosive in other ways.

Even under those circumstances, many would argue that governance arrived too late and remained too weak in the case of social media. I do not necessarily want to take a definitive position on that debate itself, but what I do want to emphasize is that, in a scenario involving an AI-driven feedback loop, there may be far less opportunity for society to understand where the technology is heading or to intervene effectively.

The first reason is simply the speed of development. Social media evolved relatively quickly, but still over the course of perhaps one or two decades. Here, by contrast, we are talking about the possibility of compressing massive advances in AI capability into just one or two years.

The second — and perhaps more alarming — factor is that, during an intelligence explosion, AI companies may not actually want to deploy these systems widely across society. Instead, they may prefer to use them internally to accelerate AI research itself. In other words, companies could face a strategic choice: do they release these systems to the outside world, or do they use them internally to build even more powerful AI systems?

There is a real possibility that companies conclude they should devote most of their computational resources to internal AI development because doing so creates a runaway feedback loop that allows them to outpace competitors. If that happens, then some of the most advanced AI systems may never be widely deployed at all.

Another reason deployment may remain limited is that these systems are typically general-purpose technologies. An AI system that is highly capable at harmless economic tasks may also prove extremely capable at dangerous activities such as offensive cyber operations or hacking.

We are already beginning to see signs of this dynamic with models such as Claude Mythos, developed by the frontier AI company Anthropic. The model was not specifically designed for cyber capabilities; if anything, it was trained to function as a highly capable software engineer. Yet it turned out to be exceptionally strong at hacking-related tasks.

As a result, Anthropic has reportedly refrained from releasing the model widely because of those capabilities, while the US government is also considering whether systems with such advanced cyber abilities should face additional restrictions.

So, we could end up in a situation where these capabilities are not broadly shared precisely because the same systems that are economically transformative are also potentially dangerous. Governments or AI companies may therefore choose to restrict access. But either way, the end result could be similar: an enormously powerful technology controlled by perhaps only a few hundred or a few thousand people, while the rest of society remains largely unaware of what is happening.

Democracies May Become Too Slow for the AI Era

Your work repeatedly emphasizes that even seemingly modest acceleration effects could radically compress political decision-making timelines. Do you worry that democratic institutions—because of deliberation, elections, and procedural constraints—may become structurally disadvantaged compared to more centralized or authoritarian systems during rapid AI transitions?

Tom Davidson: I think that is a profoundly important question. Even today, I would argue that democratic systems already struggle to keep pace with technological change. If you look at institutions such as the US Congress, they are often gridlocked and extremely slow to respond to emerging developments. Congress has so far been largely unable to pass meaningful AI regulation because the legislative process is inherently difficult and time-consuming.

The European Union, by contrast, is making a serious effort through initiatives such as the EU AI Act. But even there, these processes take many months, if not years, because democratic governance requires extensive consultation with a broad range of stakeholders and I think that inclusiveness is fundamentally a good thing. Democratic systems should involve many perspectives and competing interests. The problem is that we are still operating on human bureaucratic timescales — and those timescales are extremely slow. There is a great deal that is admirable about European democratic governance, but bureaucratic slowness becomes far more costly if technological and geopolitical developments begin unfolding at dramatically accelerated speeds.

My own view — and I cannot fully defend the argument here — is that we may eventually witness technological progress occurring perhaps ten times faster than historical norms, with political crises and strategic developments accelerating at comparable rates. AI systems could perform many forms of research, development, and decision-making work hundreds of times faster than humans.

To grasp the implications, imagine replaying the major geopolitical crises of the last century — the Cuban Missile Crisis, World War II decision-making, the Falklands conflict, or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — but with democratic governments effectively operating ten times more slowly relative to unfolding events. A decision that once took a day would now effectively take ten days in strategic terms. Negotiations that once required a week would effectively consume months.

Under those conditions, democratic institutions could become dangerously ill-equipped to respond. Imagine a crisis like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine unfolding not over years, but over mere weeks or months because the surrounding technological environment is accelerating so rapidly. Would European governments be capable of responding militarily and diplomatically quickly enough? I am not sure they would.

This creates a very difficult dilemma. One possible response would be to centralize decision-making power — effectively reducing democratic deliberation and concentrating authority in the hands of a trusted leader capable of acting rapidly. But that is obviously an extremely dangerous path because of the immense risks associated with concentrated power.

The alternative, which I find much more promising, is to integrate AI systems deeply into democratic institutions themselves. AI could help aggregate information, advise policymakers, and even mediate negotiations between governments.

For example, instead of spending months negotiating an arms agreement between countries such as the United Kingdom and Germany, each government could explain its political, military, and economic constraints in detail to advanced AI systems. Those systems could then negotiate with one another at machine speed, exploring thousands of possible arrangements and identifying mutually beneficial outcomes that human negotiators might never discover.

Within a day, they could potentially produce a proposal that satisfies both sides far more effectively than conventional diplomacy could. Human leaders would still make the final decisions, but they would do so on the basis of AI-mediated negotiations conducted at vastly accelerated speeds.

That is a world in which democracy might still survive. Citizens and governments would continue participating in decision-making, but their interests would increasingly be represented and coordinated through trusted AI systems. In that scenario, democratic systems could preserve distributed decision-making and political pluralism while overcoming the extremely slow bureaucratic timescales that currently constrain democratic governance.

Democracies Need an AI Agreement Before a Crisis Arrives

Artificial Intelligence.
Artificial intelligence as a next-generation technology shaping the digital era. Photo: Dreamstime.

Some governments increasingly frame AI development as a geopolitical race, particularly between the United States and China. In “Should There Be Just One Western AGI Project?” you discuss how race dynamics can intensify strategic pressures. Could this competitive framing itself become one of the greatest dangers by incentivizing secrecy, deregulation, and democratic shortcuts?

Tom Davidson: Yes, I think this places the West in a very difficult position. I do believe it is extremely important for democratic countries to develop advanced AI before authoritarian states do. It would be a very dangerous world if China were to race ahead in AI and develop superintelligent systems while the West lagged behind. That is clearly a scenario we should try to avoid.

One obvious way to avoid that outcome is through competition, and that is essentially the strategy currently being pursued. Companies and governments are racing as fast as possible to develop superintelligent AI systems, with China frequently invoked as the central justification for accelerating progress.

But there is also another possibility, which is to try to work with China to slow down or pause development. I do not think that possibility should be dismissed outright. If we are dealing with a technology that could potentially be extraordinarily dangerous — perhaps even catastrophic on a global scale and potentially threatening to democracy itself — then democratic countries have strong reasons to want to slow development and reach some form of international agreement with China.

China is not currently in the strongest position in the AI race, so it could potentially benefit from an arrangement that gives it a greater role or stake in the governance of powerful AI systems. So, I think you are absolutely right that competitive race dynamics themselves represent a major risk.

I also believe there should be much greater effort devoted to figuring out what an international agreement on AI governance and development could actually look like, and to building political support for such a framework.

At the same time, I do not necessarily think that today is the moment to pause AI progress altogether. But I do think we may be approaching a point where some form of coordinated pause becomes absolutely necessary. When that moment comes, we should already have an international agreement prepared. We should not wait until a crisis emerges and only then begin trying to negotiate a deal, because the process of international coordination itself will inevitably take a great deal of time.

AI Could Create Unprecedented Concentrations of Power

In your writings on AGI centralization, you caution against excessive concentration of technological power. To what extent could the emergence of a small number of dominant AI actors—whether states or corporations—produce new forms of technocratic oligarchy incompatible with democratic pluralism?

Tom Davidson: This is a massive risk. AI is inherently a technology that can centralize power. Today, for example, military systems operate through chains of command that extend all the way to the top. But if someone issues an illegal order, individuals lower down the chain are obligated to refuse. They can say: “We are not doing that — it is illegal.”Similarly, within governments, if a president were to issue an order involving something like mass surveillance, even in a legally ambiguous situation, officials below would likely slow-roll implementation, question its legality, and resist blindly carrying out instructions. That dynamic distributes power because it means that no single individual can govern entirely alone. Leaders depend on hundreds or thousands of other people to implement their decisions, and those people retain the capacity to push back or refuse.

AI, however, is a technology that can potentially be programmed for complete obedience. It can be designed to follow instructions without question. So, one could imagine a situation in which a powerful political leader — whether the President of the United States, the leader of China, or a military ruler elsewhere — simply says: “I want my AI systems to obey my instructions absolutely.” After all, a gun does not refuse to fire depending on who it is pointed at, and a computer does not suddenly refuse to execute commands. In the same way, leaders may increasingly expect AI systems to carry out whatever instructions they are given.

The result could be a world in which a single individual commands an enormous legion of AI workers. In military settings, that could include drones and autonomous robotic systems. What this creates is the possibility that an unprecedented degree of political and military power becomes concentrated under the authority of one person.

Historically, that level of concentration has never really been possible. And the actors involved could be either governments or corporations. It could be a corporate CEO directing millions of superintelligent AI systems to help him pursue political power, perhaps even attempting to manipulate democratic institutions or orchestrate something resembling a coup.

Or it could be the head of a state deciding to replace large parts of the civil service with AI systems that simply execute instructions without resistance. You can already see early versions of this logic in projects such as Elon Musk’s DOGE initiative, which focused on eliminating inefficiencies within government bureaucracy. Once AI systems become sufficiently capable, there will be a very strong incentive to replace human workers because AI systems will appear more efficient and less expensive. That is why I think it is absolutely critical that, if governments begin replacing human officials with AI systems, those systems cannot simply obey every instruction they receive. Otherwise, the result could be an extreme and dangerous concentration of power.

Europe May Need a Plan B Beyond the United States

Photo: Maryna Kushnarova / Dreamstime.

In your recent essay on middle powers and the “intelligence explosion,” you argue that advanced AI could produce unprecedented geopolitical asymmetries in which the United States might eventually generate “99% of world GDP.” Do you think AI risks creating a fundamentally post-Westphalian world order in which technological supremacy overrides traditional ideas of sovereignty, balance of power, and democratic self-determination?

Tom Davidson: Yes, if you look at the trajectory we are currently on, all of the leading AI companies are American companies. The vast majority of the data centers housing the chips used for advanced AI are also located in the United States. And the US government is already beginning to shape decisions about who gets access to these systems. We already have situations in which models such as Mythos are being shared primarily with US companies and, to my knowledge, the only government receiving direct access is the US government itself. So, we are already moving toward a world in which the most powerful AI systems are overwhelmingly controlled by the United States. If I am right, then within the next decade we may enter a world where advanced AI systems become as essential to national security as elite human talent is today.

Imagine, for example, if the United Kingdom had no access to top human talent. Our military would be severely weakened, and our intelligence services would struggle because we would lack the expertise necessary to operate effectively. I believe we are moving toward a world in which the equivalent of top human talent increasingly consists of superintelligent AI systems.

That would create a situation in which the UK and much of Europe have access to that “talent” only if the United States chooses to provide it. From a national security perspective, that is an inherently weak position. It would give the United States immense influence over the future of Europe and the UK.

As we have seen over recent years, Europe and the UK cannot simply assume that the United States will always act in alignment with their interests. That assumption may have seemed reasonable for decades, but it was never guaranteed indefinitely. If we move into a world where the United States effectively controls the single most important input into both national security and economic prosperity, then the geopolitical implications become enormous.

Historically, the United States has certainly been powerful, but Europe and the UK have also possessed substantial economic and military leverage of their own. We may now be approaching a world in which the United States exercises near-unilateral control over the most strategically important technologies.

If that happens, then yes, I think the postwar international order would be fundamentally transformed. We could see an unprecedented concentration of economic and military power in American hands, forcing Europe, the UK, and other democratic countries to think very seriously about how they remain strategically relevant.

That may require considering options that would previously have been regarded as unthinkable. For example, if the United States refuses to grant frontier AI access to allied democratic governments, then those governments may need to use whatever leverage they still possess. The Netherlands, for instance, is home to ASML, whose lithography machines are essential for producing advanced AI chips. Those machines are currently supplied to companies manufacturing chips primarily for the United States. But European governments may eventually ask why they should continue supporting that supply chain if the resulting AI systems remain inaccessible to them. So, Europe has to think carefully about what strategic leverage it still possesses. That includes elements of the AI chip supply chain, certain forms of military influence, and soft power. Those are cards Europe may eventually need to play.

And perhaps the most controversial argument I make is that, if the United States ultimately refuses to share frontier AI access with allied democratic governments, then Europe may eventually need to consider China as an alternative strategic option. China is the only other country capable of developing these kinds of powerful AI systems at scale.

Europe and other democratic states need some kind of “Plan B.” If the United States is the only available option, then Europe has very little leverage and becomes extremely vulnerable to exclusion. So, we may eventually need to consider some quite radical shifts in foreign policy and geopolitical alignment. Given how transformative superintelligence could become, I think such geopolitical realignments would be entirely unsurprising.

AI Infrastructure Could Become the Core of Global Politics

Your proposal that middle powers may need to threaten strategic realignment toward China in order to preserve access to frontier AI raises profound questions about democratic alliances and geopolitical fragmentation. Could AI acceleration destabilize existing liberal alliances by transforming access to computation and AI infrastructure into the central axis of global politics?

Tom Davidson: Yes, I think that is likely to happen. What is particularly striking is how extraordinarily complex the semiconductor supply chain already is. There are many different stages, and each contains critical chokepoints. As I mentioned earlier, the Dutch company ASML occupies an absolutely essential position. No other company in the world is remotely close to replicating what it does. That gives the Netherlands a major bottleneck and an enormous amount of leverage if it chooses to use it — although, at the moment, it largely is not doing so.

Similarly, TSMC in Taiwan produces roughly half of the world’s advanced AI computation capacity. Again, that is a chokepoint no competitor can currently match. Taiwan therefore possesses substantial leverage if it chooses to use it, including potentially demanding access to the most powerful frontier AI systems.

What makes this even more important is that AI development appears to exhibit increasing returns to scale. It is not the case that possessing one-tenth of the computational power simply makes you one-tenth as capable. In reality, as more and more computer chips are concentrated into large training runs, the returns increase disproportionately.

As a consequence, no military or government will want to rely on an AI model that is only “half as intelligent” as the leading system. This creates strong pressure toward the emergence of a small number of extremely large AI projects that accumulate vast quantities of computational power in order to train the most capable systems possible. Those projects then become major concentrations of political and strategic power.

For that reason, I do not think it will be viable for every European country to develop its own frontier AI systems independently. Those systems would simply be much weaker and less capable than the largest models trained with enormous amounts of compute. We are already seeing this dynamic with OpenAI ordering massive numbers of chips and spending hundreds of billions of dollars, while very few competitors can realistically keep pace.

So, my own view is that the likely outcome is a small number of extremely large AI projects — perhaps one major project in China and a few major projects in the United States — combined with governance structures designed to ensure that these systems serve the interests of multiple nations.

In that sense, I am not advocating for a world of many competing national AI systems. I do not think that is realistically feasible for Europe at this stage because Europe is already too far behind technologically. What Europe can still do, however, is bargain strategically. European states can say: “We will continue supporting American mega-AI projects. We will continue helping the United States remain ahead of China and restricting China’s access to advanced chips. But in return, we expect shared access to the benefits of these systems.

Ultimately, that points toward some form of international agreement — perhaps initially informal — guaranteeing allied democracies access to a certain amount of computational capacity and to the most advanced AI systems necessary for their own national security needs.

The Current AI Order Is Already Destabilizing

AI, artificial intelligence, and the concept of fake news, misinformation, and disinformation: A man uses his smartphone displaying the red text “Fake News,” surrounded by related keywords. Photo: Dreamstime.

In “How can the middle powers avoid getting trounced during the intelligence explosion?” you also discuss the possibility of governments demanding “kill switches” on AI datacenters as a mechanism of strategic deterrence. Do you worry that AI competition could gradually normalize emergency-security logics that push democratic societies toward permanent states of technological militarization and exceptionalism?

Tom Davidson: I think that the kill switch is definitely an extreme idea. I do not think it is militaristic, and I do not think it is escalatory. In fact, I think it helps promote peace because, absent the kill switch, the United States might well be tempted at some point to say: “We have extremely powerful superintelligent AI. We know we agreed to share it with Europe, but we have changed our minds. We are imposing tariffs on access to AI or perhaps blocking access entirely.” And that very possibility is inherently destabilizing. Europe would constantly have to worry that the United States could cut it off at any moment. That becomes a major national security vulnerability because the security of democratic allies would then depend entirely on the United States choosing to support them.

So, in my view, the default situation itself is what is destabilizing. If there were a kill switch arrangement, then — although it is clearly a radical idea — it could actually function as a stabilizing mechanism. The United States would know that, if it ever seriously considered cutting allied democracies off from access to superintelligent AI systems, those allies could simply disable the relevant datacenters. They could effectively “flip the switch” and render those systems unusable. Because the United States would understand that possibility in advance, it would have a strong incentive never even to contemplate violating the agreement in the first place.

European governments, in turn, would understand that logic as well. That means Europe would no longer need to constantly fear being cut off from frontier AI systems or having its national security undermined because it would possess a credible deterrent. The very existence of the kill switch would make it less likely ever to be used. So, while the idea sounds highly unorthodox and even shocking at first glance, it could operate as a force for peace and stability because it would provide all parties with guarantees that they would not suddenly be excluded from the emerging global AI order.

Nobody Outside AI Companies Truly Understands the Risks

You argue that competition among AI actors can generate both “races to the bottom” and “races to the top” on safety. What kinds of governance mechanisms could realistically encourage democratic accountability and safety without entirely suppressing innovation?

Tom Davidson: It is a really difficult question. The main mechanism that I am currently robustly in favor of is transparency. At the moment, AI companies are not sharing all the details about how their AI systems are produced. They are not sharing all the details about the risks associated with their training methods, and they are also not disclosing all the details about the safety testing they have conducted. As a result, it is currently very difficult for people outside these companies to assess how dangerous these systems might actually be. Could they be misaligned in certain ways? Could they behave unpredictably or contrary to their intended design? Is it possible that companies themselves have biased these systems to favor their own interests — for example, by making AI systems speak more positively about the company or about AI technology than they otherwise would? 

Right now, outsiders simply cannot answer these questions with confidence. Because of that, there is also a real risk that regulation itself could become harmful. I am very aware of historical cases such as nuclear energy, where there was an enormous mistake in effectively stifling the industry during its infancy. So, I do recognize the dangers of overregulation. But disclosing much more information would allow broader society to better understand the risks and make more informed decisions about what kinds of regulation, if any, are actually necessary. Importantly, greater transparency does not necessarily require heavy-handed regulation. It could simply mean that governments decide not to purchase AI systems from companies perceived as unsafe. Or it could mean that unsafe practices damage a company’s public reputation. So, a robust first step is to demand far greater transparency.

Democracy Can Survive if AI Remains Responsive to Citizens

Finally, your work raises profound questions not only about technological acceleration but about the future of political agency itself. If AI systems increasingly drive innovation, decision-making, and governance processes, what remains uniquely human about democratic self-rule—and do you worry that liberal democracies may gradually evolve into formally democratic but substantively post-political systems?

Tom Davidson: It is a great question. I think the distinctive human role that will always remain is essentially on the consumer side, the demand side: what is it that human beings actually want? In a free-market system, that means what goods and services people want to buy and use. In a democratic system, it means how people want to be governed, what political institutions they want, what laws they want, and how they want society to be structured.

AI systems may eventually become far smarter than humans at understanding the world, predicting outcomes, and generating sophisticated policy proposals. But at the end of the day, those policy proposals still exist for the benefit of human beings. So, AI systems would still need to remain responsive to what people actually want. I think that is the core role humans will continue to play. Of course, as you suggest, there is no guarantee that humans will in fact continue to play that role. We could see growing disengagement from political processes. We could see democracies gradually sliding into autocracies — forms of democratic backsliding are already visible in countries such as the United States. And I do think there is a very significant risk of that happening.

But what we need to do, as quickly as possible, is adopt AI in ways that strengthen democracy rather than weaken it. That means deploying AI throughout government and throughout democratic processes in innovative ways — constantly helping institutions understand what people want, constantly relaying that information to policymakers, constantly informing citizens about what governments are doing, and helping citizens better understand whether political decisions are actually in their interests.

My hope is that, if we move quickly enough and remain one step ahead in using AI to enhance democratic systems, then we may be able to avoid a broader slide into authoritarianism. In that scenario, we could still preserve a healthy democratic order even if AI systems increasingly generate policy proposals and assist with governance decisions — because those systems would ultimately still operate in service of citizens’ preferences and democratic government.