Turkish women took action on May 8, 2020 in Istanbul not to repeal the Istanbul Convention, which provides protection against domestic and male violence. Photo: Emre Orman.

Iran and Turkey through ‘The Golden Cage’ and ‘Contextual Gendered Racialization’ Lens: Populism, Law, Gender and Freedom

In this commentary, Dr. Hafza Girdap offers a compelling comparative analysis of populism, law, gender, and freedom across two authoritarian contexts. Bringing Shirin Ebadi’s “The Golden Cage” into dialogue with transnational feminist theory, Dr. Girdap examines how populist regimes in Iran and Turkey moralize “the people,” narrow citizenship, and weaponize law to discipline dissent—particularly women’s dissent. Drawing on her original framework of contextual gendered racialization, she shows how gender governance operates through both patriarchy and racialized belonging. The article foregrounds women’s resistance as a form of epistemic, legal, and care-centered praxis, redefining freedom not as order or security, but as memory, accountability, and collective struggle beyond the confines of the “golden cage.”

By Hafza Girdap

This piece offers a condensed commentary drawn from a broader, ongoing project of mine that seeks to trace a coherent trajectory bridging sociology, feminist theory, and human rights practice. Centering the experiences of racialized and marginalized women, my project examines how women actively reclaim voice, produce knowledge, and build solidarities across borders. By integrating scholarship with activism, it aims not only to interpret structures of oppression but also to intervene in them—amplifying marginalized women’s voices, reshaping public discourse, and contributing to justice-oriented social change at both local and global levels.

Within this framework, the article examines populism, gendered repression, and resistance in Iran and Turkey by bringing Shirin Ebadi’s The Golden Cage into dialogue with transnational feminist theory and my conceptual framework of contextual gendered racialization.

Across both cases, populism constructs a moralized vision of “the people,” narrows plural citizenship, and weaponizes law to discipline dissent, particularly women’s dissent. Read together, Iran and Turkey reveal a shared trajectory from revolutionary or reformist promise to authoritarian consolidation, where legality becomes an instrument of domination, intimacy is reorganized by fear, and women’s resistance redefines freedom not as comfort or order, but as accountability, memory, and collective care (Shabnam, 2016).

Populism and the Moral Community

In post-1979 Iran, Islamist populism intertwined anti-imperialism with religious moralism, deifying state power as the authentic voice of the ummah and framing dissent as moral deviance or foreign betrayal. Hardship, repression, and top-down governance are justified as ethical sacrifice, while sovereignty is equated with the regime itself (Qaderi et al., 2023; V for Human, 2025; Bottura, 2024).  

In Turkey, the populism of ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan evolved from counter-Kemalist majoritarianism into a religio-nationalist project that performs unity through slogans such as “one nation, one flag, one religion,” increasingly centralizing authority in the figure of the leader. While initially framed as democratizing, this project narrowed citizenship through moral conformity, loyalty, and cultural homogeneity (Yalvaç & Joseph, 2019; Yabancı, 2022). 

Ebadi’s metaphor of the golden cage” captures the populist bargain in both contexts: material security, national pride, and moral certainty are offered in exchange for silence. Belonging becomes conditional, and pluralism is redefined as threat. Populism thus does not merely mobilize “the people”; it redraws their boundaries.

From Rule of Law to Rule-by-Law

Ebadi’s central assertion, law without justice is violence,” resonates powerfully across both cases. In Iran, juridical language legitimates repression through moralized penalties, surveillance, and gender policing. Courts, decrees, and security forces recode dissent, especially women’s défiance, as disorder, immorality, or national betrayal. Following the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising, intensified surveillance technologies and punitive legislation targeted women’s everyday presence in public space (V for Human, 2025, Makooi, 2025).

In Turkey, a shift from institutional reform to rule-by-law recalibrated the judiciary, media, and religious institutions to executive power. Gender governance became a central showcase of this transformation. The withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention via presidential decree exemplified how formal legality can be used to hollow out rights while projecting a moralized policy turn. In both contexts, legality masks authoritarian consolidation, transforming law into a technology of control rather than protection (Girdap, 2021; Sarac et al., 2023).

Family, Fear, and Everyday Life

The Golden Cage demonstrates how authoritarianism penetrates the most intimate spaces of life. Ebadi’s family narrative traces siblings forced into divergent ethical trajectories; revolutionary idealism punished by imprisonment or execution, loyalist complicity pursued for survival, exile chosen at the cost of belonging. Love and loyalty become calculations of risk under surveillance.

Ebadi’s family members function as ethical projections under coercion: the revolutionary idealist destroyed by the system, the loyalist navigating compromise at psychological cost, and the exile living with safety and loss. Ebadi herself stands as the ethical center, a jurist-witness insisting that memory is a civic duty and that law must be reclaimed for justice. Her feminism is not abstract; it is anchored in accountability, testimony, and refusal to forget.

Contemporary Turkey echoes this intimate violence. Employment bans, travel restrictions, stigmatization of dissidents, and criminalization of speech ripple through households. Families become sites of risk management; ordinary communication is shaped by caution. The political becomes domestic, and repression is lived not only through spectacular events but through everyday self-censorship and fractured trust.

Gender as the Authoritarian and Democratic Measure

Gender emerges as both the primary target of authoritarian control and the most sensitive measure of democratic erosion. In Iran, women led the Woman, Life, Freedom movement following the death of Mahsa (Jina) Amini. Despite lethal repression, mass arrests, and intensified surveillance, women’s everyday practices, particularly in urban spaces, signal irreversible shifts in presence, visibility, and refusal (European Parliament, 2022; Blout, 2025).

In Turkey, women’s citizenship is increasingly restricted into motherhood, family duty, and moral loyalty. Feminism and LGBTQI+ activism are framed as moral and foreign threats, while patriarchal governance is legitimated through religious and nationalist discourse. The Istanbul Convention withdrawal galvanized resistance, making gender a central site through which democratic backsliding and civic resilience are simultaneously revealed.

My framework of contextual gendered racialization sharpens this analysis by showing how Sunni Turkishness is privileged through an ethno-religious “Turkishness Contract,” producing double marginalization for Kurdish, Alevi, Armenian, and dissenting women. Gendered governance thus operates through both patriarchy and racialized belonging (Unlu, 2023).

Transnational Racialization and Migration

Racialization travels across borders. In Turkey, difference is marked through proximity to dominant Sunni Turkish identity rather than skin color; minority women are symbolically racialized as deviant or suspect. In the United States, Muslim women become hyper-visible within Islamophobic regimes of surveillance, legally white, socially brown (Aziz, 2020). Hijab, accent, and names trigger institutional scrutiny across immigration, healthcare, education, and labor.

Women respond through strategic identity management: negotiating visibility, silence, and speech; altering dress or disclosure; cultivating selective belonging. These practices constitute feminist praxis rather than mere adaptation, resisting both authoritarian repression and reductive Western feminist frames. Situated feminisms emerge from lived negotiation rather than abstraction (Girdap, 2025).

Law, Memory, and Care as Resistance

Across Iran and Turkey, women deploy diverse resistance strategies that transform opposition from episodic protest into durable institution-building. Ebadi’s ethic of defending rights even within captured institutions finds parallels in feminist lawfare and documentation practices in Turkey. Litigation, femicide databases, survivor testimonies, and non-enforcement audits preserve public memory and sustain accountability even when legal victories are limited. As national protections erode, opposition-led municipalities expand shelters, hotlines, training, and care infrastructures, producing constituent feminism beyond electoral cycles. Campaigns such as #İstanbulSözleşmesiYaşatır (#IstanbulConventionSavesLives) and recurring protests after femicides sustain public scrutiny and agenda pressure. Groups like Mor Dayanışma link gender violence to labor precarity, militarism, ethnic repression, and anti-LGBTQI+ moral panics, expanding coalitions and articulating care-centered, class-conscious feminist praxis (Mor Dayanışma, 2025; Najdi, 2025; Şeker & Sönmezocak, 2021).

Conclusion: Freedom Beyond the Golden Cage

Bringing Ebadi’s ethic of law, memory, and freedom together with a transnational feminist analysis clarifies the stakes of the Iran–Turkey comparison. In both contexts, populism narrows [established] citizenship into a moral community, and gender becomes the key nexus of belonging. Yet women’s epistemic and practical resistance, through legal advocacy, documentation, care spaces, migration, and transnational solidarity, takes a huge step to widen citizenship back into rights, pluralism, and accountability.

Freedom, in this sense, is not comfort or order. It is collective remembering, feminist institution-building, and sustained struggle against normalization. The golden cage is broken not by silence, but by women who insist on memory, justice, and shared political futures across borders.


 

References

Aziz, Sahar F. (2020). “Legally White, Socially Brown: Racialization of Middle Eastern Americans.” In: Routledge Handbook on Islam and Race (ed. Zain Abdullah), Rutgers Law School Research Paper No. Forthcoming, https://ssrn.com/abstract=3592699 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3592699

Blout, Emily. (2025, September 16). “Resisting Iran’s High-Tech War on Women Three Years After Mahsa Amini’s Death.” Stimsonhttps://www.stimson.org/2025/resisting-irans-high-tech-war-on-women-mahsa-amini/

Bottura, Beatrice. (2024). “Theocracy, Radicalism and Islamist/Secular Populism in Iran, Afghanistan & Tajikistan.”European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). October 18, 2024. https://doi.org/10.55271/rp0089

European Parliament. (2022). Protests in Iran over the death of Mahsa Amini.https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2022/733671/EPRS_ATA%282022%29733671_EN.pdf

Girdap, Hafza. (2021). “Right-wing populism, political Islam, and the Istanbul Convention.” European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). https://www.populismstudies.org/right-wing-populism-political-islam-and-the-istanbul-convention/

Girdap, H. (2025). “Racialization and Response Through Embodied Identification.” In: From a Shadow to a Person: A Gender Studies Assessment of Women in the Middle East, edited by Shilan Fuad Hussain, Routledge, manuscript in preparation.

Holliday, Shabnam J. (2016). “The legacy of subalternity and Gramsci’s national–popular: populist discourse in the case of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Third World Quarterly, 37:5, 917-933, DOI: 10.1080/01436597.2015.1113872

Makooi, Bahar. (2025, September 9). “Three years after Mahsa Amini’s death, Iranian women have seized ‘irreversible’ liberties.” France 24https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20250916-three-years-after-mahsa-amini-death-iranian-women-have-seized-irreversible-liberties

Mor Dayanışma. (2025, February 11). “Women, Work, and War: Organizing and Resistance in Turkey – an Interview with Mor Dayanışma.” https://www.mordayanisma.org/2025/02/11/women-work-and-war-organizing-and-resistance-in-turkey-an-interview-with-mor-dayanisma/

Najdi, Youhanna. (2025, September 16). “Mahsa Amini: 3 years on, will Iran face fresh protests?” DW.https://www.dw.com/en/mahsa-amini-3-years-on-will-iran-face-fresh-protests/a-74000756

Qaderi, H.; Delavari, A. and Golmohammadi, A. (2023). “Populism and Politics in Iran after the Islamic Revolution: Content Analysis of Presidential Speeches from 1989 to 2017.” Political Strategic Studies12(44), 9-58. doi: 10.22054/qpss.2022.66333.3002

Sarac, B. N.; Girdap, H., & Hiemstra, N. (2023). “Gendered state violence and post-coup migration out of Turkey.” Womens Studies International Forum, 99, 102796. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wsif.2023.102796

Şeker, Berfu and Sönmezocak, Ezel Buse. (2021, June). “Withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention: War on Gender Equality in Turkey.” Freedom House. https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2021-06/06292021_Freedom_House_Turkey_Policy_Brief-2-Withdrawal-from-the-Istanbul-Convention.pdf

Unlu, B. (2023). “The Turkishness contract and the formation of Turkishness.” In: F. M. Gocek & A. Alemdaroglu (Eds.), Kurds in Dark Times. Syracuse University Press.

V for Human (2025, August 12). Erased from the Scene: Türkiye’s Withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention. https://www.vforhuman.org/publications/erased-from-the-scene

Yabancı, B. (2022). “Religion, nationalism, and populism in Turkey under the AKP.” Middle East Institute. https://www.mei.edu/sites/default/files/2022-10/Religion%2C%20Nationalism%2C%20and%20Populism%20in%20Turkey%20Under%20the%20AKP.pdf

Yalvaç, F. & Joseph, J. (2019). “Understanding populist politics in Turkey: a hegemonic depth approach.” Review of International Studies45(5), 786–804. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26843268

Refugee children are helped ashore after arriving by boat from Turkey on the Greek island of Lesbos, capturing a moment where relief and suffering coexist. Photo: Aleksandr Lutsenko.

The Humanity of Migration

In this timely and powerful Voice of Youth (VoY) essay, Emmanouela Papapavlou reframes migration not as a crisis or threat, but as a defining human reality of the twenty-first century. Moving beyond populist slogans and fear-based rhetoric, the piece exposes the gap between political discourse and the lived experiences of migrants—marked by legal precarity, exclusion, and everyday vulnerability. It critically interrogates the selective use of “legality” in public debates and highlights how populism redirects anger away from power and toward the powerless. Importantly, the article identifies Generation Z as a potential counterforce, emphasizing its everyday engagement with diversity and its rejection of xenophobic narratives. Published on the occasion of International Migrants Day, the essay is a compelling call to restore dignity, humanity, and ethical responsibility to migration politics.

By Emmanouela Papapavlou*

In an age of global instability, migration is not an exception and not some marginal social phenomenon, it is a defining feature of the modern world. Wars, political persecution, economic collapse, environmental disasters and inequality push millions to leave their homes in search of safety, opportunity, and a sense of dignity. Within this reality, the 18th of December, International Migrants Day, is not just another “awareness day,” it is a powerful reminder that migration is one of the most central human experiences of the twenty-first century, and that the way we talk about it in public spaces has real consequences on real lives.

Despite its profoundly human dimension, migration has become one of the most polarized subjects in global politics. Populist rhetoric, flourishing across Europe, the United States, and beyond, finds in the “migrant” the perfect target, an “other” onto whom fears, insecurities, and imagined threats can be projected. Migrants are framed as a faceless mass, as an economic burden, as a cultural threat, or even as enemies of national security. Yet the reality of migration is dramatically different from these oversimplified narratives.

For millions, migration is not a choice, it is a necessity. And for those who manage to reach countries of arrival, the journey does not end, it begins. Access to legal documents, endless visa backlogs, the slow and often arbitrary asylum process, and the requirements for work authorization create a system that is frequently insurmountable. In the United States, for example, hundreds of thousands of people live for years without papers, not because they refuse to comply, but because the system is designed to delay, discourage, and exclude. Even proving that you qualify for asylum often requires documents that no one could possibly rescue while fleeing a bombed home or a collapsing life.

While political discourse focuses obsessively on “flows” and “invasions,” what almost never gets discussed is the actual everyday reality of migrants, the labor exploitation, the lack of access to healthcare or education, the constant uncertainty of “will I be allowed to stay tomorrow,” the threat of deportation, the social stigma, the ghettoization, the absence of meaningful integration. Many states treat migration as a problem that must be “controlled,” not as a social fact that must be understood, integrated, and addressed with humanity.

International Migrants Day exists precisely because of this gap, the gap between rhetoric and reality, between what is said and what people live. It is a day dedicated to rights and dignity, to the fundamental right to move and to the right to live without fear. It is also a reminder that societies do not show their humanity in how they treat the powerful, but in how they treat the vulnerable.

Here we see another dimension of populism, the selective invocation of “legality.” Public debate suddenly fills with people who appear deeply committed to the rule of law when the conversation turns to migrants. “They came illegally,” they say, as if respect for the law were a consistent personal value and not something invoked only when convenient. Because the same people who express moral outrage at a refugee are often the same people who consider underage drinking normal, who speed on the highway, who drive under the influence, who use recreational substances, who pirate movies, music, and games without a second thought. In those cases, the law becomes a “technicality,” and strictness evaporates.

Yet when the “offender” is someone who ran from war, when it is a mother holding a child in a boat, when it is a young person who left everything behind just to survive, then suddenly the law becomes absolute and unforgiving. And even worse, we almost never see the same outrage when the offenders are powerful, corrupt politicians who steal public funds, evade taxes, exploit systems for personal gain, or embezzle compensations. In those situations, anger disappears. Outrage fades. “Illegality” becomes almost invisible.

This contradiction has nothing to do with the law. It has everything to do with control, with fear, and with the political function of populism, which is to divert collective anger away from those who cause injustice, and direct it instead toward those who are least able to defend themselves.

Yet within this landscape, there is a source of hope, and it comes from Generation Z. Gen Z is the first generation in history to grow up fully online, exposed every day to the lives of people across the world, from every background and every context. Diversity is not perceived as a threat; it is an intrinsic part of reality. For this generation, multiculturalism is not an ideological position, it is the texture of daily life in schools, universities, neighborhoods, and digital spaces.

Young people do not see migrants as outsiders, they are classmates, friends, coworkers, neighbors. They are the stories shared on social media, the voices heard without intermediaries, the people facing the same universal anxieties, work, education, safety, rights. Take the example of someone like Zohran Mamdani, who arrived in the United States as a child refugee and eventually became an elected representative in New York. His story is not an exception, it is a sign of a new era in which identity is shaped not by where you were born, but by who you are and what you contribute to your community.

What becomes clear is that Gen Z, through everyday contact with diverse cultures and people, rejects fear based rhetoric. They are not easily persuaded by politicians who weaponize xenophobia, and they do not accept narratives of “threat” without question. They see migration as a human reality, not as a tool for propaganda. And this generational shift carries enormous political weight for the future.

If we truly want to honor International Migrants Day, it is not enough to acknowledge its existence. We must promote policies that allow for safe, legal, and humane migration, support integration programs that go beyond survival and lead to participation and dignity, reform asylum and legalization systems so they do not trap people in bureaucratic limbo, and build societies that recognize diversity not as a danger but as a collective strength.

Because at the end of the day, the question we must ask is simple, and its simplicity is what makes it so revealing: How can a human being be considered “illegal” on an earth we were all born into? How can anyone be treated as worthless simply because they were born a few kilometers away?

If we cannot answer that clearly, then perhaps International Migrants Day exists to remind us that before borders, politics, and identities, we are, above all, human.


(*) Emmanouela Papapavlou is a high school student from Thessaloniki, Greece, deeply passionate about social and political issues. She has actively participated in Model United Nations and other youth forums, serving as a chairperson in multiple conferences and winning awards in Greek debate competitions. Writing is her greatest passion, and she loves using it to explore democracy, civic engagement, and human rights. Her dream is to share her ideas, inspire action, and amplify the voices of young people who want to make a difference. Email: emmanpapapavlou@gmail.com

Kurdish festival Newroz being celebrated in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 20, 2011. Photo: Sadık Güleç.

Peace with the Kurds in Turkey: What about It?

In this incisive analysis, political scientist Professor Cengiz Aktar examines Ankara’s latest initiative toward the Kurds, arguing that what has been presented as a peace process is instead a populist performance of reconciliation. Professor Aktar shows how Turkey’s government frames “brotherhood,” “national unity,” and “terror-free Turkey” as harmonious goals, even though such populist language masks structural inequalities and omits democratic guarantees for Kurdish identity. With Abdullah Öcalan’s call for dissolution of the PKK left unreciprocated, and no mechanisms for Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR), truth-seeking, or legal reform, Professor Aktar warns that the process risks being symbolic rather than transformative. He suggests that populism here functions not as conflict resolution, but as political containment — strengthening autocratic power while offering no durable settlement.

By Cengiz Aktar

Turkey’s long-running conflicts with its ethnic and/or religious groups have been on the permanent agenda for more than a century. Various attempts by successive rulers to suppress or resolve these conflicts have drawn the attention of Turkey watchers and international public opinion throughout this period.

Interestingly, the latest initiative by the Ankara regime toward the Kurds—although seemingly ground-breaking at first glance—has largely gone unnoticed by global media outlets, and even more so by the wider public abroad. Only Western governments have, rather unenthusiastically, welcomed the developments.

Why such a lack of interest? Most likely because there is no serious or lasting peace perspective visible at the end of the process.

The genocide in Gaza, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, and the massacres and famine in Sudan are now almost entirely dominating the headlines. Nevertheless, a genuine “Kurdish peace” would normally contain—at least partially—the seeds of region-wide normalization. Yet no one seems to detect such a dynamic in Ankara’s initiative, and rightly so.

Let us briefly recall the background.

Since the surprise launch of the so-called “process” on October 1, 2024, a highly unusual modus operandi has been underway to address this decades-old military conflict.

First, contrary to well-established conflict-resolution practices, the parties involved are not on equal footing. The Kurdish leader remains in prison and is not free in his movements or actions. That asymmetry alone speaks volumes about the genuineness of the process.

Since his capture and imprisonment twenty-five years ago, Ankara has approached Abdullah Öcalan three times with the same objective: to pressure him to end the armed struggle and push for the PKK’s dissolution. This time, it appears to have worked.

Indeed, on February 27, Öcalan declared that the rebel group had “completed its life cycle” and called for its dissolution, potentially signaling the end of a decades-long conflict that claimed at least 50,000 lives—around 40,000 of them Kurdish. 

His “Call for Peace and a Democratic Society” was broadcast to the public at a hotel in Istanbul. In return, the plea for “legal and political regulations for dissolution and disarmament,” which was not included in the written call, was later added verbally.

Compared to the previous “peace” initiative of 2013, there is a clear regression. At that time, Öcalan linked the resolution of the Kurdish issue to the PKK’s demobilization, while proposing a broader, holistic framework. Today, there is no longer any connection between the dismantlement of the PKK and a lasting political solution to the Kurdish question. Öcalan’s major unilateral concession thus clearly signals that the entire scenario is being crafted by the authorities.

Second, in line with this fundamental imbalance, the scenario assumes that the Kurdish issue will be resolved within a vague framework of “national solidarity, brotherhood, and democracy,” falling far short of the structural changes required for equal citizenship and the recognition of Kurdish identity. Yet it aligns perfectly with a populist rhetoric that casually pairs concepts that in fact cancel each other out, such as “brotherhood” and “democracy.” 

In the regime’s daily populist rhetoric, the process is laconically labeled “terror-free Turkey”—and nothing more. Worse, Öcalan now seems to echo this line by consistently promoting a “brotherhood” narrative in which Turkishness clearly takes precedence.

Within this framework, the regime may make symbolic gestures of goodwill but will never undertake ground-breaking reforms that would establish the constitutional, legal, and political foundations of an equal citizenship. 

Kurds, under this logic, can only become full-fledged citizens on the condition that they dissolve into the Turkish magma. Accordingly, since the Öcalan call on late February, not a single meaningful step has been undertaken by the regime toward the Kurds.

Third, established conflict-resolution mechanisms and expert involvement are entirely absent from the Turkish process—whether in the form of joint commissions or specialized bodies within relevant public institutions.

Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR)—the return of ex-combatants to civilian life through weapons collection, disbandment of armed groups, and social and economic reintegration—is not part of the process. Likewise, no provision has been made for truth and reconciliation.

All in all, within this unusual conflict-resolution architecture, the only concrete step taken by Ankara has been the establishment of an advisory parliamentary commission until the end of 2025, which meets behind closed doors and in which regime parties hold an absolute majority. Its agenda does not include, for example, a crucial Kurdish demand: the official recognition of the Kurdish language.

As for the opposition—including the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP)—the prevailing view seems to be that the process would automatically trigger broader democratization. As if history had ever shown a non-democratic regime transforming into a democracy through the smooth management of peacebuilding with an ostracized people—in this case, the Kurds. Simply because such a management requires as a pre-condition, a functioning democracy. 

The negative consequences of this clumsy process are already looming. While PKK circles have complied with the call of their “supreme leader” Öcalan, the Kurdish street remains profoundly skeptical. People welcome the official end of the armed struggle for its potential to spare the lives of their children—but no more than that.

Overall, the process is likely to strengthen Erdoğan and the regime bloc, allowing it to reap the political benefits of a “terror-free Turkey,” while weakening if not dismissing the Kurdish Political Movement. This carries the risk of a violent rejection of Kurdish “surrender” by radical—or less radical—segments of Kurdish polity.

Beyond this unfolding drama, Ankara’s ultimate objective remains the dissolution of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) in Syrian Kurdistan (Rojava), led by Syrian Kurds and backed by a 100,000-strong, NATO-trained and equipped military force.

Nevertheless, the integration of this force into the nascent Syrian army appears to be the only realistic option for Damascus, for the AANES, and for the international coalition supporting the entity, which includes the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Saudi Arabia. Negotiations among all actors are underway despite Turkey’s stubborn opposition.

The Turkish state has never viewed the Kurdish issue as anything other than a security problem—whether inside Turkey or in neighboring countries. That reflex will not change unless Ankara is forced to accept the Rojava fait accompli, thereby swallowing both the empowerment and the legitimacy of a Kurdish-led polity in its immediate neighborhood and across the wider region.

Professor Tim Bale is a renowned scholar from the School of Politics and International Relations at Queen Mary University of London.

Prof. Bale: Nigel Farage Is a Marmite Politician — Loved by His Base, Toxic to Many Others

In this in-depth interview for ECPS, Professor Tim Bale offers a sharp assessment of Reform UK’s rise and Nigel Farage’s polarizing leadership. Farage, he argues, is “a Marmite politician — people either love or hate him,” making him both Reform’s engine and its constraint. Professor Bale suggests that Farage exemplifies “a classic populist radical-right leader” who channels anti-elite sentiment, yet risks alienating voters beyond his base. He links Reform’s surge less to ideological realignment than to Conservative decay, marked by Brexit fragmentation, leadership churn, and “over-promis[ing] and under-deliver[ing] on migration.” While Reform may reshape the political terrain, Professor Bale warns its ceiling remains visible—especially if questions of competence, Russia, and generational change intensify. Reform’s future, he concludes, is possible, but far from inevitable.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

Giving an interview to the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Professor Tim Bale—Professor of Politics in the Department of Politics and International Relations at Queen Mary University of London—offers a wide-ranging analysis of Nigel Farage, Reform UK, and the structural realignments reshaping British party politics. His insights are grounded in decades of scholarship on party evolution, populist rhetoric, and leadership psychology, making his perspective essential for understanding the United Kingdom’s shifting electoral landscape.

Throughout the interview, Professor Bale situates Nigel Farage as both emblem and engine of Britain’s contemporary radical right. As he puts it, “Nigel Farage is, in many ways, a classic example of a populist radical-right leader,” one who mobilizes support through a moralized confrontation between “the people” and supposed elite betrayal. Yet Farage’s strength is also his constraint. Professor Bale memorably describes him as “a Marmite politician,” a figure voters “either love or hate,” noting that this polarization “probably places a limit on Reform’s appeal.” Farage, therefore, embodies both populist vitality and electoral risk—“the ideal leader” in the eyes of his base, yet “a figure of suspicion” for many beyond it.

This duality frames Professor Bale’s central contention: that Reform UK’s rise must be understood not only in ideological terms but as an artefact of Conservative decay. Years of intra-party conflict, Brexit-driven fragmentation, and “over-promis[ing] and under-deliver[ing] on migration” have opened political space for Farage’s insurgency. Yet Professor Bale cautions against assuming an irreversible realignment. The Conservative Party remains “rooted in the middle-class political culture of the UK,” with institutional depth and internal veto points that make any “reverse takeover” more difficult than populist narratives imply.

Focusing on the structural and sociological conditions that shape political possibility, Professor Bale further highlights a widening generational divide. While education and age have become stronger electoral predictors than class, cultural conflict alone cannot explain support for Reform. If public priorities shift back from national issues to personal ones—from immigration to “the cost of living, [and] the state of public services”—Reform’s momentum may plateau. Moreover, its perceived softness on Russia remains “an Achilles’ heel,” one that stalled its surge when public attention sharpened in 2024.

Across this interview, Professor Bale neither exaggerates inevitability nor discounts volatility. Instead, he offers a sober framework for evaluating whether Reform represents a durable transformation or a protest cycle with a ceiling. Britain, he suggests, now faces a future where polarization, demographic turnover, institutional vulnerability, and charismatic leadership converge—precariously. This conversation, therefore, is not only timely, but analytically consequential.

Here is the edited transcript of our interview with Professor Tim Bale, slightly revised for clarity and flow.

Farage Is a Classic Populist Radical Right Leader

Nigel Farage speaking in Dover, Kent, UK, on May 28, 2024, in support of the Reform Party, of which he is President. Photo: Sean Aidan Calderbank.

Professor Tim Bale, thank you very much for joining our interview series. Let me start right away with the first question: In your work with Cristóbal Rovira Kaltwasser on the mainstream right’s strategic squeeze between Inglehart’s “silent revolution” and Ignazi’s “silent counter-revolution,” how should we interpret the rise of Reform UK? To what extent does Nigel Farage embody a classic mobiliser of counter-revolutionary sentiment, and to what extent do the Conservative Party’s specific organizational, ideological, and reputational vulnerabilities make the UK an outlier in the broader pattern of West European party-system transformation?

Professor Tim Bale: I think you would have to say that Nigel Farage is, in many ways, a classic example of a populist radical-right leader. He constantly draws a distinction between the wisdom of “the people” and their alleged betrayal and condescension by elites. As for the Conservative Party, there has always been a strain of populism and nationalism—indeed, some would say jingoism—within its tradition. In recent years, particularly under Boris Johnson and during the Brexit campaign, this tendency has come to the surface. In that sense, the party has reached back into its more populist and nationalist heritage as a way of competing with Farage and the political space he has claimed.

The Tories Are Hard to Capture — But Not Impossible

Farage’s rhetoric about a prospective “reverse takeover” foregrounds questions of party permeability and factional capture. Drawing on your analyses of Conservative factionalism and recurrent leadership crises, what structural, ideological, and organizational conditions render the Conservative Party susceptible to colonization by a radical-right challenger? Conversely, what features of party culture, elite networks, or institutional veto points might inhibit such a takeover?

Professor Tim Bale: When you look at the Conservative Party, there are features that, while not necessarily inoculating it from the challenge Farage poses, do make such a takeover more difficult than some people imagine, in the sense that it is a party rooted in the middle-class political culture of the UK. It is a party that has existed for 200 years, and it has a strong sense of entitlement, as it were, and a strong belief that it is the natural party of government, and therefore will be able to resist, in some ways, any challenge from a newcomer. 

Having said that, however, one feature of the Conservative Party that always has to be borne in mind is that it is very strongly a leadership-driven party, and that should a leader take over who is more receptive to the kinds of overtures that Nigel Farage and others are making, then it would be quite easy for that person to convert the party to taking a much more hospitable attitude to that development. So, on the one hand, the fact that the Conservative Party is old, has a brand, and has an infrastructure makes it quite difficult for somebody to take it over. On the other hand, it can be taken over quite easily from within, because it is so reliant on the leader to show it the way in terms of policy and organization.

Farage Is Reform’s Greatest Asset and Its Weakest Link

Stop Trump Coalition march, Central London, United Kingdom, September 17, 2025. A protester holds a sign reading “No to fascists — Trump, Musk, Farage.” Photo: Ben Gingell.

Your recent interview on Reform UK emphasizes Farage’s dual status as both the party’s central mobilizing force and its principal liability. How does this tension map onto broader theories of charismatic leadership, affective polarization, and “anti-system” appeal? In an increasingly fragmented multi-party context, does Farage’s polarizing image constrain the party’s governability narrative to the point of limiting its credible path to No. 10?

Professor Tim Bale: Nigel Farage is what we call, in England, a Marmite politician, which refers to a yeast-based spread that people put on their toast in the morning. People either love or hate that particular spread, and that’s very true of people’s attitudes to Nigel Farage. I think the fact that he is such a polarizing figure probably places a limit on Reform’s appeal. At the moment, it seems to be polling around 30% in the opinion polls, and I think that reflects the fact that he finds it difficult to appeal to voters who hate him, obviously, but also that ambivalent voters may be wary of the polarization he represents. So, I do think that is something of an obstacle to Farage’s progress. The anti-system appeal you mention is clearly attractive to some voters — people fed up with the two mainstream parties who want to smash the system. Anyone like Nigel Farage, who seems to offer a more radical alternative, is an appealing option for them. However, there is still a strong streak of small-c conservatism in the British electorate that would regard that as too radical, and that would like change — but not at the cost of dismantling a parliamentary, liberal, representative democracy that, in many ways, has served Britain well over the last couple of hundred years.

Reform’s Rise Is Built on Tory Collapse as Much as Ideology

Your research on Conservative leadership instability highlights the compounding effects of leader unpopularity, policy incoherence, and internal disunity on electoral performance. How much of Reform UK’s current momentum should be understood through the lens of “opportunity structures” created by Conservative decay, rather than any substantive ideological realignment toward radical-right policy demand?

Professor Tim Bale: As always, what we’re seeing is a combination of both. I mean, there is some genuine appeal of Reform UK’s policies and pitch to the electorate. But obviously, what has gone wrong with the Conservative Party has opened up avenues for Reform in a way that we haven’t seen before. In particular, the fact that the Conservative Party has really, since 2010, over-promised and under-delivered on migration has made it much easier for Farage to suggest that somehow it has failed voters and that it has not been able to, as it were, live up to their expectations. 

Also, you would have to say that the way the Conservative Party has lost its organizational coherence, the way Brexit, for example, tore the party apart and made parliamentary discipline something of a fiction, hasn’t helped—nor has the party’s tendency to cycle through leaders so quickly. That has led to a feeling that the Conservative Party, oncea sort of solid, respectable governing party, has to some extent lost its way, even lost its mind, according to some voters. And I don’t think that has helped the Conservative Party, but I do think that’s helped Nigel Farage and Reform UK.

Many Tory MPs Would Be Comfortable in a PRR Party

In “Populism as an intra-party phenomenon,” you analyzed how Corbynism reconfigured Labour’s organizational dynamics and membership incentives. Do you observe analogous intra-party populist dynamics emerging within the Conservatives today—particularly in the struggle between traditional conservatives, post-liberal cultural conservatives, and those advocating rapprochement or fusion with Reform UK?

Professor Tim Bale: There are definitely, if not factions, then certainly groups within the Conservative Party who are battling it out for the party’s soul. You can see that there is very clearly a bunch of MPs who, if not wanting a merger with Reform UK, would actually be quite open to the idea of some kind of electoral pact with Farage’s party. I think that partly is instrumental opportunism on their part, in the sense that they think the Conservative Party is in trouble, and it needs an alliance of some kind with Reform UK to recover its fortunes. 

But, there are MPs within the Conservative Party who, to be honest, would be quite comfortable belonging to a populist radical right party. They believe that Britain needs shaking up economically, and that the only way for that to happen is actually to get a greater level of support from the electorate, based on cultural concerns—concerns around immigration, woke issues, and green policies. That’s the only way of getting the kind of government that they want to actually dismantle some of the welfare state and some of the regulation that they think is holding Britain back. So, you have a strange situation in the Conservative Party where there are many advocates of a much more neoliberal conservatism who are prepared to adopt a more authoritarian stance on cultural concerns in order to get into government and implement the kinds of economic policies that they think are absolutely vital.

The Tories Are Now Moving on Migration in Farage’s Direction

Photo: Dreamstime.

Your comparative work on UKIP/Brexit Party and Australia’s One Nation highlights how radical-right “outsiders” can generate policy payoffs without executive power by reshaping the strategic environment of mainstream parties. How is Reform UK already influencing Conservative rhetoric, agenda-setting, and internal factional alignments—especially on immigration, welfare, and ECHR withdrawal?

Professor Tim Bale: You put your finger on a phenomenon that occurs throughout the world, and we’ve seen it all over Western Europe, when parties with little hope of actually governing—and certainly of joining a coalition—are capable of, as it were, moving the center of gravity in a system towards the populist radical right. When you look at the Conservative Party’s policy-making since 2024, and even actually before that, in response to the threat that Nigel Farage’s various parties—be it UKIP, be it the Brexit Party, be it Reform UK—you can clearly see that the Conservative Party has moved very much in his direction.

So, on migration, we now have a Conservative Party that has suggested—though there is some debate over whether it was intended seriously—withdraw­ing the indefinite right to remain granted to some non-citizens, and even opening up the possibility of them eventually being encouraged or indeed deported. That kind of mass-deportation approach is something previous Conservative governments would never have considered, and it reflects a direct response to some of Nigel Farage’s arguments.

Welfare is more complex. Farage is very aware that many of his supporters rely on the welfare state, and certainly on the National Health Service, so the Conservative Party must be cautious not to move too far toward his ambivalence on those issues. Instead, it tends to fall back on its more familiar low-tax, low-spend reputation.

On migration, that is the obvious one, where we’ve seen the Conservative Party move, just as we’ve seen parties, whether they be Christian Democrat or Conservatives across the continent, move very much towards a rather more kind of radical policy. You’d also have to look at environmental politics here, and it’s very clear that over the last few years, a Conservative Party that actually pioneered the move towards net zero—when Theresa May was Conservative Party Premier—is now really talking about winding back that commitment. I think, again, that is in response to Nigel Farage and Reform, and their promotion of the fossil fuel industry and its arguments.

Local Failures Might Not Dent Reform as Much as Opponents Hope

Reports of dysfunction in Reform-run local authorities raise questions about statecraft and institutional capacity. Given your longstanding argument that perceived competence ultimately constrains populist breakthroughs in Britain, do you anticipate that these governance shortcomings will erode Reform’s credibility? Or, alternatively, might anti-establishment narratives inoculate the party from such accountability?

Professor Tim Bale: That is a great question. We have seen Reform take over local authorities since spring of this year, and many of those councils have made rather a mess of things. They’ve fallen out with each other, they’ve found it much harder to make savings than they originally suggested, and in fact, they’re going to have to raise taxes rather than reduce them for local people. While the problems in those local authorities actually gain quite a lot of amused coverage in the media, I’m not sure how much the electorate in general pay attention to them if they’re not happening in their particular part of the country.

You raise a very good question here about the extent to which, if you criticize Reform UK, you actually strengthen, in some ways, the support for it among its die-hard advocates and voters. So, one would like to think that the example of local councils actually gives people pause for thought about whether it would be a good idea to elect Reform to the government of the country as a whole. But I rather doubt that it will have as big an impact as some of Reform’s opponents hope.

Hardline Accommodation Risks Alienating Supporters While Boosting the Radical Right

Your scholarship has shown that center-right parties often pre-empt or accommodate radical-right positions under competitive pressure. Should we expect Labour or the Conservatives to adapt their stances on immigration, welfare conditionality, or international legal obligations in response to Reform’s pressure? What do cross-national patterns suggest about the risks and limits of such accommodation?

Professor Tim Bale: We are already seeing in the UK the Labour government take a much harder line on migration than many of its supporters would like. It’s clear that that is a response by the government to losing votes to Reform. Current polling suggests that around 10% of people who voted for Labour in 2024 are now intending to vote for Reform, and Labour is desperate to get some of those people back, and by pursuing a more authoritarian stance on migration, they hope to do that.

You also point, however, to the fact that this has gone on all over the European continent. We’ve seen center-left parties as well as center-right parties pursuing a harder line on migration, and Denmark is often the country pointed to in this respect, perhaps as a successful example. But when we look across the continent as a whole, we don’t find that it is a particularly useful response for center-left parties to take. It ends up doing two things: first, alienating many of their more obvious supporters—in other words, people who have more liberal or left-wing values; and second, it tends to prove counterproductive or futile, in the sense that all it does is raise the salience of issues like migration in the minds of most voters, causing elections to be fought and debate to be conducted on terrain that actually favors populist radical right parties.

So, I personally wouldn’t advocate that as a response by the center-left, but it’s one that is still often mooted and taken by center-left parties, unfortunately.

Farage’s Sympathy for Putin Is an Achilles’ Heel

Stop Trump Coalition march, Central London, United Kingdom, September 17, 2025. Protesters dressed as Musk, Farage, Vance, Putin, Trump, and Netanyahu. Photo: Ben Gingell.

Your work on leadership perception underscores how trait attributions shape political choice. How electorally damaging is the perception that Reform UK is “soft on Russia,” particularly given polling indicating its unusually high association with pro-Russia sentiment? Does this reputational liability limit its potential to broaden its coalition beyond anti-establishment voters?

Professor Tim Bale: Reform’s support, Reform’s support, and certainly Farage’s apparent sympathy for Putin’s justification of the invasion of Ukraine, is something of an Achilles’ heel for him. To be clear, Farage has been careful not to appear as a superfan of Vladimir Putin, but he has repeatedly suggested that Russia’s invasion has been influenced by NATO “poking the Russian bear” and extending its influence into Ukraine in ways that allegedly threatened Moscow. 

Polling from the 2024 election shows that the moment public attention focused on Farage’s more accommodating stance toward Putin and Russia, Reform’s upward trajectory stalled. This position is deeply unpopular in Britain, and it is something Farage will have to address seriously, especially ahead of the next election. After all, the country will be choosing a government and prime minister in a highly unstable geopolitical moment, and Russia is viewed by the overwhelming majority of Britons as the aggressor.

So, I think it is a limit to his appeal unless he begins to resile from it. At the moment, however, it doesn’t look as if he wants to do that. I should add a caveat here: when we look at other populist radical-right parties, and indeed more extreme variants of the radical right in Europe, there does not appear to be anything like the same level of enthusiasm for Russia and for Putin within Reform as we see in some of their continental counterparts.

Reform Voters Favor Leaders with ‘Dark Triad’ Traits

Your “What Britons Want in a Political Leader” study reveals stark divergences between the traits valued by Reform/Conservative members and those preferred by the broader electorate. What does this asymmetry imply about Reform’s sociological and psychological ceiling of support, and what does it reveal about the electorate segments most susceptible to Farage’s appeal?

Professor Tim Bale: What we find in our research is that supporters—and certainly members of Reform—have much more positive views about leaders who exhibit what psychologists would call dark triad qualities. In other words, those are Machiavellianism, for example, psychopathy, for example. That is a marked contrast with the supporters of other parties, although slightly less so with supporters of the Conservative Party, who are rather more like Reform.

I think this comes down, once again, to Nigel Farage’s appeal. For his supporters, he is, in some ways, the ideal leader: he exhibits the kind of ruthless and sometimes manipulative, clever qualities that they so admire. But those very same qualities are actually quite off-putting to a large segment of the British electorate. So once again, if we’re talking about limits to Nigel Farage’s appeal, the kind of leadership qualities that he has—the leadership that he demonstrates—make him intensely popular with his own supporters, because they are psychologically predisposed to like that kind of leadership. Whereas for many in the electorate, they make him a figure of suspicion rather than someone they would like to see leading the country.

The Greens, Not Corbyn, Pose the Greater Danger to Labour

Jeremy Corbyn, former Labour leader, during a visit to Bedford, United Kingdom, May 3, 2017. Photo: Dreamstime.

Reform appears to be peeling off older, culturally conservative, economically insecure voters, while recently founded socialist Your Party seems poised to attract younger, urban, progressive activists disillusioned with Labour. How vulnerable is Labour to a “two-front erosion,” and do Starmer’s strategic concessions on immigration and public order risk replicating the center-left dilemmas seen elsewhere in Europe?

Professor Tim Bale: You’ve seen recently Your Party try to get its act together. This is the party being set up by, among others, Jeremy Corbyn, who used to be the very left-wing leader of the Labour Party, and Zara Sultana, an ex-Labour MP. There is an extent to which this does threaten Labour’s hegemony on the left. There are many left-wing voters who are very disappointed with the Labour government, not least on its attitude to migration, but also on its attitude to tax and spend.

What I would say, however, is that I’m not sure Your Party is actually the biggest threat to Labour on that front. I think what we’ve seen recently is that the difficulties that Your Party have had in actually getting its act together, as I said before, mean that the Green Party has seized the moment. It’s elected a new so-called eco-populist leader, Zach Polanski, who appears to be saying and doing the kinds of things that people disillusioned with Labour would actually like—so, for example, wealth taxes, and a much more aggressive attitude to Nigel Farage and Reform UK.

So, if there is a kind of two-front war being fought by Labour—Reform on the one hand, and then a left-wing party on the other—it’s probably not Your Party; it’s probably the Greens that are the biggest threat on its left flank.

First-Past-the-Post May Save Labour

Drawing on your prior analyses of organizational dysfunction within left-of-center parties, how serious a threat is Your Party’s emergence—given its early factional disputes and resource constraints—to Labour’s ability to consolidate progressive voters? Might it institutionalize a structural cleavage on the British left akin to Podemos–PSOE or Mélenchon–Socialist Party dynamics?

Professor Tim Bale: There is a risk. There We talked about some of the problems that Your Party have had. There is a risk that if they can actually surmount some of the early difficulties that they have, then we do see a party on the left—whether it be Your Party or the Greens—actually draining support from Labour. Current opinion polling does suggest that around 10–15% of former Labour voters have drifted off and might drift off in that direction.

However, there’s always the constraining factor of our electoral system. It is always going to be possible for Labour, successfully or unsuccessfully, to argue that under a first-past-the-post system a vote for either the Greens or Your Party is a wasted vote, particularly if they are able to conjure up the possibility of a Reform government under Nigel Farage, which may frighten sufficient numbers of people who might otherwise be tempted to use their vote expressively and to vote for Your Party or the Greens. They may wonder whether that is a good idea and, actually, in the end, come back home to the Labour Party. Probably that is the Labour Party’s strategy at the moment.

Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, attends a joint press conference with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv, Ukraine, on January 16, 2025. Photo: Vladyslav Musiienko.

Conservatives Misread 2019 as Permanent Shift, Ignoring Voters’ Economic Priorities

In Hopes Will Be Dashed,” you argued that Brexit negotiating strategies were deeply shaped by a pervasive “Merkel myth.” Do you see contemporary Conservative or Reform elites relying on analogous political myths—such as a presumed majority demand for “uniting the right,” a belief in the inevitability of populist realignment, or a misreading of public appetite for hard-liner sovereignty politics?

Professor Tim Bale: That is a great question. I think one of the problems that the Conservative Party in particular had was a misreading of the 2019 election result as proof of what they called the realignment. In other words, the sense that working-class voters in this country had moved very much to the right on social questions, on cultural questions, and therefore there was some kind of permanent change of which the Conservative Party would be the beneficiary—when in fact that election was, in some ways, a rather more contingent affair, influenced very much by Brexit, influenced very much by the personality of Jeremy Corbyn, and indeed, Boris Johnson.

That myth—the idea that somehow there has been this incredibly profound change, and that cultural politics is now the dominant factor in elections—is still something that the Conservative Party holds onto, much to its detriment. It’s very interesting when you look at the leadership election in the Conservative Party following the 2024 general election. All the talk was about the Conservatives’ failure on migration, rather than the Conservatives’ failure to provide the country with adequate economic growth and adequate public services.

So, there is a kind of fixation on cultural politics and on this so-called realignment that the Conservative Party still has, which makes it actually quite difficult for it to realize that there is more to life than migration and woke, and indeed net-zero—that, in fact, the British public are not that different in the sense that they still want a government that hopefully provides them with peace, prosperity, and public services that actually work.

Britain Is Slowly Becoming More Liberal

You have frequently noted the role of media ecosystems in amplifying or constraining radical-right actors. To what extent is Reform’s surge a product of media-driven agenda-setting, and to what extent does it reflect deeper structural and sociological realignments within British politics? How should we disentangle these forces analytically?

Professor Tim Bale: That is a great question, but it’s also a very complicated one. Having shed doubt on this idea of a realignment, it is definitely the case that class features much less as a driver of people’s voting in this country, and that, in fact, education and age, to some extent, now seem to be the best predictors of which way people are going to vote. I do think cultural questions have come up in the mix, but I would want to say that the economy—while it’s not the only thing, the only game in town—is still actually very important as a driver of the way that people vote.

If you step back and look at cultural change in this country, clearly there are many voters who are uncomfortable with that, but they tend to be in older generations and, of course, will eventually disappear from the electorate. Now, that’s not to say that the center-left will somehow come into a kind of inevitable inheritance, because younger voters are rather more liberal and more tolerant in their attitudes. But it is to say that the center-right has to be very careful that it doesn’t end up on the wrong side of history, to coin a cliché, and fails to recognize that, for all the turmoil going on in British politics, underneath that, voters are becoming rather more liberal, more tolerant, and—despite media-driven polarization—more comfortable with a multicultural, multi-ethnic Britain.

So how long politics and political parties can thrive by exploiting differences, concerns, and anxieties is an open question.

If Living Costs Top Immigration, Reform Could Stall

UK economic crisis concept illustrated with the Union Jack and forex market data trends (AI-generated). Photo: Yuliya Rudzko.

And finally, you have cautioned that a Reform-led government is “not inevitable.” What empirical indicators—electoral, organizational, reputational, or demographic—would persuade you that (a) Reform UK is on a trajectory toward executive power, or (b) its rise represents a cyclical protest mobilization likely to dissipate before the next general election?

Professor Tim Bale: You have to look at support for Nigel Farage in particular, and the extent to which people think he will or won’t make a good Prime Minister. In the end, people know that they are voting not just in protest against something but are actually having to elect a government that’s going to make some very important decisions, and Nigel Farage is so central to Reform’s appeal that what people think of him is extremely important.

You also have to look at the extent—and obviously this, to some extent, involves prediction as to which issues are going to be most important for people at the next election. At the moment, immigration seems to be top of the list, but it’s only top of the list when you ask people what is the most important problem facing the country. When you ask people what’s the most important problem facing you and your family, immigration drops down the list, and the cost of living, the state of public services, comes right up.

So, I would probably look at the extent to which that is changing. If people think that migration is making a difference to them and their family, then perhaps that bodes well for Reform. But if the current disjunction between what people think is important to the country and what people think is important to them and their families continues, Reform is less likely to gain in strength.

Then, you’d have to take account of the kind of geopolitical situation, given we’ve already talked about Russia being something of an Achilles’ heel for Reform UK. If you were to see any extension of Russia’s aggression in Europe, then that would make it very difficult for Reform UK to make a convincing case for government.

I’d also look at what’s happening to the Conservative Party to bring it full circle. If the Conservative Party continues to stay in the doldrums—in other words, if it can’t recover itself and it can’t get anywhere near 25–30% of the vote—then there are many people who would normally vote Conservative who might be prepared to vote Reform, and that would give Reform a chance of government.

One final thing to throw into the mix is that our electoral system is not really very well suited to the party system that we now have. We now have a five-party—maybe six, seven, eight-party—system in this country, operating alongside an electoral system that is suited only to two parties, which means that it could be possible that a party on just under 30% of the vote could get a majority in Parliament next time around, and that would be a very unstable situation for the UK.

German press kiosk in Trier with Der Spiegel featuring Donald Trump as “world policeman” on the cover on July 3, 2025. Photo: Dreamstime.

Why Europe, Not China or Russia, Is the Civilisational Problem in Trump’s NSS

Trump’s National Security Strategy marks a sharp break from post-Cold War US diplomacy: it portrays Europe, not rival powers, as the core site of Western civilisational decline. Warning of “civilisational erasure” through migration, demographic change and secularisation, it urges support for “patriotic European parties” resisting this shift. In this framing, the danger to the West is internal, not external, and the US becomes guardian of authentic Western identity—aligning more closely with Orbán, Meloni and PiS than with many elected governments. This leaves Europe facing a strategic dilemma: remain reliant on Washington or assert its own civilisational narrative. Europe must choose—adapt, resist, or define itself.

By Nicholas Morieson

The release of its National Security Strategy shows the Trump Administration to be especially concerned with the decline of Western civilization. One passage in the document drew considerable international attention. It warned that Europe now faces the risk of “civilisational erasure” driven by migration, cultural and religious change, low birthrates and the loss of historical identity. Unless Europe “corrects its current trajectory,” the document claims it could become “unrecognisable in 20 years or less.” The United States, it argues, should help by supporting the “patriotic European parties” resisting this shift.

This language marks a significant break with post-Cold War US diplomacy, and signals that Washington intends to treat its relationship with Europe as an arena of ideological struggle. Throughout the document, Europe appears both as an ally and as a civilisation in decline. Moreover, European governments are portrayed as having adopted values and migration policies that undermine the foundations of the West itself. As a result, the document implies, the United States has no choice but to ‘correct’ Europeans and essentially force them to reconnect with their traditional and authentic Christian-based civilization. 

Fears of Western decline are not new. Even in the year 2000, which may have been the high point of Western power and influence, American writer Jacques Barzun argued in his surprise bestseller From Dawn to Decadence that the West had entered a period of decadence. Barzun meant cultural exhaustion and the fading of artistic and intellectual ambition, not geopolitical weakness. He was not concerned with demography or the strategic balance of power. A generation later the picture is different. The sense of Western decline is no longer limited to cultural pessimists. Analysts now describe American relative decline, a stagnant Europe, and a China confident enough to present its rise as civilizational renewal.

This raises an important puzzle. The National Security Strategy presents Europe as a civilisation in decline but does not treat Russia, China or India in the same civilizational terms, even though these states are the United States’ principal strategic competitors. This is especially surprising insofar as those nations often position themselves as ‘civilization-states’ at odds with Western culture and avowed enemies what of what they view as American imperialism. Yet the document reserves its sharpest language for European societies that, in its view, have abandoned the cultural and religious foundations of the West. Why, then, should the Trump Administration attack allies in explicitly civilizational language while avoiding it with rival powers? The answer is that the Trump administration sees the main threat to Western civilisation as internal rather than external. In their view, the West is being weakened by its own governments and its own cultural choices. Europe therefore becomes the object of correction. The United States, as they understand it, must pressure Europe to return to the values that once defined Western civilisation rather than treat Europe as an equal partner in managing global competition.

The National Security Strategy places the United States at the centre of Western civilisation. In this narrative America becomes the core state responsible for restoring the cultural confidence that Europe has supposedly lost. Trump and Vance describe themselves as defending the West, however what is immediately obvious in the document is that the object of defence is not the geopolitical order that linked the United States and Europe throughout the Cold War. Rather, it is a set of cultural and religious markers that they believe Europe has abandoned. Civilisational rhetoric therefore becomes a tool for a nationalist project. The document justifies pressure on European governments, portrays right-wing populist parties as cultural allies, and reframes transatlantic relations as a struggle over the meaning of the West rather than as a partnership between democratic states.

While we should not overstate its importance, it is significant that an American strategic document now aligns the US more closely with Europe’s populist right than with many of Europe’s elected governments. Indeed, the Trump Administration appears to divide Europe in two. One Europe consists of liberal governments, EU institutions and political leaders committed to secular cosmopolitanism. The other Europe is defined by Christianity, firm borders, and inherited Western values and is represented above all by Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, Giorgia Meloni’s Italy, and Poland’s PiS opposition, right-wing populists who share the Trump Administration’s concerns over Europe’s civilisational decline. In their National Security Strategy, the Trump Administration presents the former as pushing Europe toward collapse and the latter as Western civilisation’s last remaining defenders. 

Although the Trump Administration positions itself and America as the arbiter of authentic Western values, the National Security Strategy contains an unresolved tension insofar as many of the social and cultural trends it critiques in Europe also exist within the United States. The United States is itself experiencing demographic change, declining Christian affiliation, and widening cultural diversity, which complicates claims that Europe alone is departing from the Western tradition. This raises a definitional problem because if the West is understood in civic terms Europe and America remain Western despite cultural change, but if it is defined by racial or religious identity, then the pressures described in the National Security Strategy are shared on both sides of the Atlantic. Moreover, several of the identity debates the administration portrays as corrosive in Europe originated in American academic and activist contexts, suggesting that the cultural dynamics it attributes to Europe are partly American in origin. This is why the Macron government in France ‘wages war’ on ‘wokeness,’ something they perceive to be a form of unwanted American cultural imperialism spreading throughout French institutions.  

The National Security Strategy therefore confronts Europe with a strategic and conceptual dilemma. Should Europe define Western culture on its own terms, and can it articulate a political and cultural identity that differs from the one now promoted by Washington? European governments speak of strategic autonomy, but their nations remain dependent on American security guarantees, particularly in defence and intelligence. European publics remain divided on migration and identity, which complicates any attempt to articulate a coherent cultural and political narrative. Furthermore, EU institutions prefer to define Europe as a legal and political project grounded in universal rights rather than as a civilisation with a particular religious or ethnic foundation. This makes it difficult for Europe to respond to the NSS, which casts it as a civilisation in decay and implies that its renewal requires a return to Christian cultural markers.

This tension has led some analysts, such as Aris Roussinos, to argue that Europe must either consolidate around its own values or accept a subordinate position in a Western order increasingly defined in Washington. Emmanuel Macron has attempted to present Europe as a civilisational actor capable of independent strategic judgement, yet it remains unclear whether this project can succeed given institutional fragmentation and the absence of a shared European cultural story. The National Security Strategy highlights that uncomplicated civilisational unity with the United States is no longer plausible. Such unity would require Europe to adopt a civilisational narrative aligned with American right-wing populist thought, something most European governments are unwilling to do.

The future of transatlantic relations may depend on the outcome of the next American Presidential election. A J.D. Vance victory would almost certainly deepen civilisational language in US strategy, increase pressure on the EU project and expand American support for right-wing populist parties in Europe. Europe shows little capacity to respond to this approach because it remains structurally dependent on American security and politically divided on issues of identity. Continued subordination would leave European governments reacting to American preferences rather than shaping their own strategic environment.

A Democratic victory would return the United States to its traditional support for the European Union. Civilisational rhetoric would recede, and Washington would again treat Europe as a partner in a rules-based and liberal international order. Yet this scenario also carries risks for Europe. A return to the status quo would still leave Europe reliant on American power and vulnerable to future political shifts in Washington. In the long term, Europe may need to assert greater strategic and political autonomy if it wishes to avoid oscillating between two competing American visions of the West.

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Virtual Workshop Series — Session 7: Rethinking Representation in an Age of Populism

Session 7 of the ECPS Virtual Workshop Series offered a compelling interdisciplinary examination of how contemporary populism unsettles the foundations of democratic representation. Bringing together insights from digital politics, the history of political thought, and critical social theory, the session illuminated the multiple arenas—affective, constitutional, and epistemic—through which representation is being reconfigured. Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano revealed how memetic communication and generative AI reshape political identities and moral boundaries within far-right movements. Maria Giorgia Caraceni traced these dynamics to enduring tensions within the conceptual history of popular sovereignty, while Elif Başak Ürdem demonstrated how neoliberal meritocracy generates misrecognition and drives grievances toward populist articulation. Collectively, the session highlighted the necessity of integrated, cross-disciplinary approaches for understanding the evolving crisis of democratic representation.

Reported by ECPS Staff

On November 27, 2025, the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS) convened Session 7 of its Virtual Workshop Series, “We, the People” and the Future of Democracy: Interdisciplinary Approaches. This session, titled “Rethinking Representation in an Age of Populism,” assembled an interdisciplinary group of scholars to interrogate the shifting boundaries of political representation in an era defined by populist appeals, democratic fragmentation, and technological transformation. The workshop opened with a brief orientation by ECPS intern Reka Koleszar, who welcomed participants, provided technical guidance, and formally introduced the moderator, presenters, and discussant on behalf of ECPS, ensuring a smooth and well-structured beginning to the session.

Under the steady and incisive moderation of Dr. Christopher N. Magno (Associate Professor at Department of Justice Studies and Human Services, Gannon University), the session unfolded as a robust intellectual engagement with the crises and possibilities surrounding contemporary democratic representation. Dr. Magno framed the event by situating today’s populist moment within broader transformations affecting democratic institutions, public trust, and communicative infrastructures. Emphasizing that representation must be understood not only institutionally but also symbolically and epistemically, he set the stage for the three presentations, each of which approached the problem of representation from a distinct but complementary angle.

The first presentation, delivered by Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano (Assistant Professor, Department of Audiovisual Communication, Rey Juan Carlos University), examined how memes, short-form videos, and AI-generated images operate as potent vehicles of populist discourse. His talk demonstrated how digital visual cultures simplify complex ideological battles, construct moralized identities, and normalize hostility—revealing the emotional and aesthetic foundations of far-right mobilization in Latin America. By mapping differences in memetic ecosystems across Argentina, Brazil, and El Salvador, Dr. Bayarri illuminated how digital artifacts reshape political communication and reconfigure the representational field.

Next, Maria Giorgia Caraceni (PhD Candidate in the History of Political Thought, Guglielmo Marconi University of Rome; and Researcher at the Institute of Political Studies San Pio V) offered a long-term conceptual genealogy of popular sovereignty, tracing contemporary populism to the enduring tension between monist and pluralist understandings of “the people.” Through a reconstruction of Rousseauian and Madisonian frameworks, Caraceni argued that the conflict between unfettered majority rule and constitutional constraints is not a modern anomaly but a persistent structural dilemma within democratic theory—one that populism reactivates with renewed force.

The final presentation, by Elif Başak Ürdem (PhD candidate in political science at Loughborough University), analyzed populism as a political response to the failures of neoliberal meritocracy. Introducing the concept of epistemic misrecognition, Ürdem argued that meritocratic regimes undermine democratic parity by devaluing non-credentialed forms of knowledge, generating status injury, and closing off channels of political voice. Her synthesis of Nancy Fraser’s tripartite justice framework and Ernesto Laclau’s theory of political articulation offered a novel explanation for why unaddressed grievances increasingly channel into populist mobilization.

The session concluded with deeply engaged feedback given by Dr. Sanne van Oosten (Postdoctoral Researcher at the University of Oxford), whose discussant reflections synthesized the thematic intersections among the papers while posing incisive questions that broadened the theoretical and comparative horizons of the workshop.

 

Dr. Christopher Magno: Framing the Crisis of Representation in an Age of Populism

Christopher N. Magno is an Associate Professor, Department of Justice Studies and Human Services, Gannon University.

Session began with an illuminating opening address by Dr. Christopher Magno. Expressing his appreciation to the European Center for Populism Studies and to participants joining from across the globe, Dr. Magno framed the session as an interdisciplinary engagement with one of the most pressing challenges facing contemporary democracies: the erosion, contestation, and reconfiguration of political representation in an age of intensifying populism. As chair of the session, he emphasized that the three featured papers—spanning political theory, digital communication, and the sociology of knowledge—collectively reveal the multifaceted nature of today’s representational crisis.

Dr. Magno began by noting that institutions traditionally associated with democratic representation—parties, parliaments, courts, and the media—are experiencing unprecedented stress. Populist leaders increasingly claim to speak exclusively for “the people,” positioning themselves against bureaucracies, independent institutions, and constitutional checks. Simultaneously, citizens express diminishing trust in political actors and deep frustrations with the perceived distance between decision makers and everyday life. Against this backdrop, Dr. Magno highlighted several foundational questions that today’s scholars must revisit: Who—or what—is represented in modern democracies? What constitutes legitimate political knowledge? How is “the people” symbolically constructed? And in what ways do new communicative infrastructures reshape these dynamics?

Introducing the session’s first paper, Dr. Magno highlighted Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano’s analysis of memetic violence within far-right populist movements in Latin America. He explained that Dr. Bayarri shifts the analytical focus from formal institutions to the emotional and visual terrain of memes, short videos, and AI-generated images. These digital artefacts, he noted, perform serious political work: they simplify complex conflicts into stark moral binaries, normalize hostility through humor, and help forge emotionally charged communities bound by grievance and belonging. In an era of generative AI, Dr. Magno observed, narrative authority increasingly slips away from traditional institutions and into decentralized digital ecosystems where populist movements thrive.

He then turned to Maria Giorgia Caraceni’s contribution, which situates populism within the long intellectual history of popular sovereignty. Dr. Magno explained how Caraceni contrasts a monist Rousseauian conception of a unified general will with a pluralist Madisonian framework grounded in constitutional limits and minority protections. From this perspective, populism reactivates monist understandings of “the people,” illuminating not an aberration but a recurring tension embedded in democratic evolution.

Finally, Dr. Magno introduced Elif Başak Ürdem’s paper, which interrogates populism as a rational response to neoliberal meritocracy’s structural failures. Central to Ürdem’s argument is epistemic misrecognition—the process through which technocratic institutions devalue non-credentialed forms of reasoning, producing profound experiences of exclusion and injury. Dr. Magno noted that this framework invites participants to view representation not only institutionally but also epistemically: as a question of whose knowledge counts and who is recognized as a legitimate political subject.

By weaving together structural, cultural, and conceptual analyses, Dr. Magno concluded, the three papers collectively illustrate that the crisis of representation cannot be reduced to economic grievances, digital disruption, or constitutional design alone. Rather, it emerges at their intersection—and it demands renewed scholarly attention to exclusion, sovereignty, and the contested construction of “the people.” With these reflections, he opened the floor and invited the first presentation.

 

Asst. Prof. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano: “Memetic Communication and Populist Discourse: Decoding the Visual Language of Political Polarization” 

Gabriel Bayarri Toscano is an Assistant Professor, Department of Audiovisual Communication, Rey Juan Carlos University.

Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano delivered a rich and empirically grounded presentation that examined how far-right populist movements in Latin America strategically deploy memetic communication—particularly memes, short-form videos, and AI-generated images—to mobilize emotions, construct political identities, and shape moral boundaries. Drawing on more than a decade of research in Brazil and three years of fieldwork in Guatemala, Argentina, Uruguay, and El Salvador, Dr. Bayarri’s talk offered an in-depth exploration of the visual and affective infrastructures that sustain contemporary populist politics. His presentation stemmed from a recent Newton International Fellowship undertaken at the University of London, funded by the British Academy.

At the outset, Dr. Bayarri presented three guiding research questions. First, he asked how memes and AI-generated images intervene in far-right populist discourse—not as light entertainment, but as political artifacts capable of translating ideology into immediate emotional resonance. Second, he explored what comparative insights emerge from studying Brazil, Argentina, and El Salvador, three countries with distinct histories yet convergent visual strategies for constructing “the people” and identifying internal enemies. Third, he probed how humor functions as a mechanism of symbolic violence, normalizing hostility toward women, LGBTQ+ communities, racialized groups, and political opponents.

While Dr. Bayarri did not delve deeply into theoretical debates, he situated memetic communication at the intersection of postcolonial studies, political anthropology, and visual analysis. He conceptualized memes as “cultural and affective artifacts”: multimodal, intuitive forms that condense entire worldviews into a single image or short video. Drawing on affect theory, particularly Sara Ahmed’s work, he underscored how emotions structure political recognition, shaping who is perceived as threatening or trustworthy. His concept of memetic violence captured how humor, satire, and exaggeration operate as tools to legitimize aggression. Far from being peripheral, memes constitute a central mechanism through which far-right populism exerts affective force.

From Pixels to Protest: AI’s Role in Shaping Populist Mobilization

A major portion of the presentation focused on the transformative impact of generative AI. Tools like MidJourney, DALL·E, and Stable Diffusion, he argued, have dramatically lowered the barriers to producing high-quality political imagery. Supporters no longer require graphic-design skills; simple textual prompts now generate polished depictions of Javier Milei as a medieval crusader, Jair Bolsonaro as a messianic figure, or Nayib Bukele as a futuristic sovereign. Rather than diversifying the visual field, AI often reinforces authoritarian and nationalist narratives, giving them heightened emotional charge and aesthetic cohesion.

Methodologically, Dr. Bayarri employed a mixed approach combining digital ethnography, visual analysis, and on-the-ground fieldwork. Across Telegram groups in the three countries studied, he collected more than 25,000 images—both manually produced and AI-generated. Equally significant were his ethnographic observations at rallies, demonstrations, and political events. He emphasized that online imagery does not remain confined to screens; instead, it reappears in chants, T-shirts, flags, street art, and casual political conversations. This online–offline loop shows that memetic communication actively shapes political behavior and helps embed antagonistic narratives in everyday life.

Dr. Bayarri then examined each country case in turn. In Argentina, supporters of Javier Milei construct an intensely mythological visual universe in which the libertarian candidate appears as a lion, crusader, or savior. National symbols blend with fantastical elements to portray him as a heroic figure rescuing the nation from the corrupt “political caste.” Although AI use remains moderate, AI-generated images play a significant symbolic role by presenting Milei with heightened coherence and aesthetic polish. Offline discourse mirrors these representations; slogans such as “He will turn lambs into lions” or “He is our Templar” circulate widely.

Divergent Populist Aesthetics Across Latin America

Brazil, by contrast, exhibits relatively low AI use to date but an extremely high volume of manually produced memes. Here, the dominant motifs are Christian morality, national purity, and moralized depictions of innocence. Bolsonaro is frequently shown embraced by Jesus, while rivals such as Lula are caricatured as corrupt, dirty, or monstrous. Telegram groups often include calls for violence framed through moral binaries like “a good bandit is a dead bandit.” Dr. Bayarri suggested that these moralized narratives may evolve significantly as AI becomes more integrated into Brazilian political communication ahead of the 2026 elections.

El Salvador displayed the highest level of AI-generated imagery. President Nayib Bukele is visually reimagined as a king, messiah, or futuristic architect of national modernity. AI-generated skylines, military parades, and stylized heroism reinforce his narrative of decisive, transformative leadership. Manual memes complement this aesthetic by targeting journalists, NGOs, feminists, and other perceived critics, casting them as threats to national security. Supporters often describe Bukele in salvific terms, saying “He saved us” or “He gave us back our country.”

Across these cases, Dr. Bayarri identified three recurring patterns of memetic violence: (1) Moral binaries, which compress politics into a struggle between good and evil; (2) Humor as dehumanization, making aggression appear harmless and fostering group cohesion; (3) The online–offline loop, where images circulate recursively between digital platforms and street politics, blurring boundaries between representation and mobilization.

In concluding, Dr. Bayarri highlighted three broader implications. First, memes profoundly shape how far-right populist identities are constructed and experienced. Humor, affect, and visual storytelling are not peripheral but foundational to populist subjectivity. Second, generative AI intensifies these dynamics by amplifying heroic imagery and accelerating the dehumanization of opponents. Finally, he argued that understanding contemporary populism requires integrating digital research with embodied ethnographic observation. Memetic communication, especially when accelerated by AI, is not simply representational—it actively organizes emotions and behaviors in ways that help far-right populist movements thrive.

 

Maria Giorgia Caraceni: “Populism and the Evolution of Popular Sovereignty: A Long-Term Theoretical Perspective”

Maria Giorgia Caraceni is a PhD Candidate in the History of Political Thought, Guglielmo Marconi University of Rome and Researcher at the Institute of Political Studies San Pio V.

Maria Giorgia Caraceni delivered a conceptually rich and historically grounded presentation that positioned populism within the long and complex trajectory of the modern idea of popular sovereignty. Speaking from the perspective of the history of political thought, Caraceni argued that contemporary debates on populism cannot be adequately understood without recovering the intellectual genealogy from which the modern notion of “the people” and its sovereign authority emerged. Her central methodological commitment—what she described as a history of ideas approach—aimed to situate present-day populist practices within the deeper philosophical tensions that have shaped democratic theory since the eighteenth century.

Caraceni began by reflecting on a longstanding challenge in populism studies: the enduring absence of a single, shared definition of populism. Drawing on Yves Mény, she observed that the root of this conceptual indeterminacy lies in the ambiguity of populism’s primary referent, the people. In democratic systems, “the people” is both omnipresent and elusive—an essential but vague category whose empirical boundaries are contested and whose normative authority is continually invoked but rarely clarified. This ambiguity, she suggested, is not a mere lexical problem but a structural feature of democratic politics itself.

The Deep Tensions Underlying Popular Sovereignty

To illuminate this structural dimension, Caraceni turned to Ernesto Laclau’s influential theory. She highlighted Laclau’s claim that “the people” is not an empirical datum but an “empty signifier”—a political construct capable of being filled with diverse and often incompatible demands. For Laclau, a popular identity emerges when heterogeneous grievances are articulated into an equivalential chain: broadening in scope, but thinning in specificity. Caraceni noted that this process results in a political identity that is extensive yet intentionally impoverished, capable of unifying diverse groups under a simplified symbolic banner.

However, the central theoretical move in her presentation was to show that Laclau’s distinction between the logic of equivalence (unifying demands into a monist identity) and the logic of difference (preserving particularities within a pluralist landscape) is far from a contemporary innovation. Rather, she argued, these two logics mirror the foundational contrast between the political philosophies of Jean-Jacques Rousseau and James Madison—the canonical interlocutors in the conceptual history of modern popular sovereignty.

Caraceni then reconstructed these contrasting intellectual traditions. Rousseau, she explained, theorized popular sovereignty by grounding it in the general will, which for him represented the collective, indivisible will of the people. The general will did not correspond to the aggregation of private opinions, but to their transcendence through the removal of subjective differences. Yet Caraceni stressed that Rousseau’s framework contains an intrinsic and often overlooked tension. While it aspires to unanimity, it ultimately reduces this unanimity to majority rule. Individuals in the minority, Rousseau insists, must recognize (or be compelled to recognize) that they were “mistaken” about the general will, having already submitted themselves to the collective through the social contract. Thus, Caraceni noted, Rousseau’s monist conception effectively authorizes the majority to compel conformity from dissenters, revealing the latent risk of majoritarian absolutism.

The Battle Between Pluralism and Monism

Madison, by contrast, represents the paradigmatic pluralist response. In Federalist No. 10, Madison acknowledges the inevitability of factions arising from divergent interests and unequal faculties. The key political challenge, he argues, is preventing majority factions from using their numerical strength to oppress minorities. Popular sovereignty must therefore be limited—structured through constitutional mechanisms, separation of powers, and institutional checks—to safeguard individual rights and ensure that no majority can consolidate unrestrained power. Caraceni emphasized that Madison’s project was not to deny the legitimacy of popular rule, but to prevent its degeneration into tyranny. The enduring dilemma he identifies—how to reconcile majority rule with minority protection—remains at the heart of democratic constitutionalism.

Caraceni argued that this Madisonian insight shaped the development of modern constitutional systems, particularly after the Second World War. Judicial review, entrenched rights, rigid constitutional amendment procedures, and the elevation of constitutional norms above ordinary legislation were all introduced to prevent the abuses of unbridled majoritarianism. In these frameworks, the people remain the ultimate source of legitimacy, but their power is mediated, structured, and limited by constitutional forms.

This historical account provided the foundation for Caraceni’s interpretation of contemporary populism. She contended that populist movements emerging since the late twentieth century—especially those mobilized in reaction to globalization and technocratic governance—effectively revive a monist conception of popular sovereignty. Populist leaders, she argued, reclaim the Rousseauian imaginary of a unified general will, presenting themselves as the authentic embodiment of the “true people” while depicting institutions such as courts, parliaments, and bureaucracies as illegitimate obstacles to popular expression. This rhetorical strategy enables a fusion between the will of a part of society and the will of the whole, a move mirrored in institutional pressures toward centralizing executive power and delegitimizing dissent.

Populism Against the Constitution

Caraceni highlighted several contemporary examples of this dynamic, referring to cases where populist executives pursue constitutional reforms aimed at weakening checks and balances—most clearly visible, she suggested, in Hungary, but with resonances across Europe and beyond. Such “reformative hyperactivism,” as she described it, enables populist leaders to occupy the institutional field while justifying their actions as the restoration of popular sovereignty against unaccountable elites. Yet, she argued, the true target of this agenda is not merely political opponents but liberal constitutionalism itself.

One of the most compelling contributions of Caraceni’s presentation was her insistence that the tension between populism and constitutionalism is not merely circumstantial, but structural. The modern concept of popular sovereignty, she argued, has always contained an unresolved aporia between singularity and plurality—between the desire for a unified people and the necessity of institutionalized limits. Populism, in her view, is not an aberrant pathology or a transient consequence of current crises. Rather, it is a recurring reactivation of the conceptual contradictions embedded within democratic modernity.

In concluding, Caraceni proposed that a full understanding of populism requires a dual-level investigation. On the one hand, scholars must undertake a genealogical inquiry into the history of popular sovereignty to show how its original ambivalences reemerge in contemporary politics. On the other hand, they must analyze the socio-political conditions that trigger populist waves and shape citizens’ attachments to populist claims. Populism, she suggested, arises when structural tensions converge with contextual catalysts, producing moments in which the unresolved dilemmas of popular sovereignty become politically salient and institutionally disruptive.

Caraceni closed by reaffirming her hypothesis: populism should be understood not only as a contingent response to present crises but as a recurring manifestation of the inherent contradictions of democratic sovereignty. Her future work, she noted, will continue to explore how these conceptual tensions shape the evolution of democratic institutions and the practices of popular rule.

 

Elif Başak Ürdem: “Beyond Fairness — Meritocracy, the Limits of Representation, and the Politics of Populism”

Elif Başak Ürdem is a PhD candidate in political science at Loughborough University.

Elif Başak Ürdem delivered a theoretically ambitious and conceptually innovative presentation that examined the relationship between neoliberal meritocracy, social status, and the emergence of contemporary populist politics. Drawing on her broader dissertation research—an empirical analysis of 29 Western liberal democracies—Ürdem used this presentation to articulate a missing conceptual link in the existing literature: how and why a system ostensibly based on fairness and equal opportunity generates political resentment, status injury, and ultimately populist mobilization. Her presentation sought to resolve an epistemological puzzle within populism research by advancing the concept of epistemic misrecognition, while also bridging the frameworks of Nancy Fraser and Ernesto Laclau to reinterpret populism not as an irrational deviation, but as a political logic emerging from structural failures.

Ürdem began by identifying gaps in the theoretical landscape. While traditional research has often treated populism as a “thin ideology” or an emotional deviation from democratic norms, she argued that this perspective has produced an analytical blind spot. Empirical studies increasingly show that declining subjective social status, rather than objective deprivation alone, is a more powerful predictor of populist support. Yet popular explanations—such as cultural backlash or status anxiety—lack an account of why grievances today are drawn toward populist channels rather than absorbed through traditional left-wing or class-based politics. Here, Ürdem positioned meritocracy as the missing but insufficiently theorized piece.

Populist Articulation in the Age of Neoliberal Meritocracy

Turning to Laclau, Ürdem emphasized the need to shift our ontological stance. For Laclau, populism is not a fixed ideology but a logic of political articulation. Populism emerges when institutions lose their capacity to absorb social demands, creating a backlog of unmet demands that begin to link together through an equivalential chain. These demands, though different in content, share a common blockage—an inability to be processed by existing political and institutional frameworks. What eventually crystallizes is an “empty signifier” such as the people, through which heterogeneous frustrations are expressed.

Laclau, Ürdem argued, gives us the form of populist rupture but not the content. What, she asked, are the specific forces generating unmet demands today? Why do people feel unheard, misrecognized, or excluded? Her answer drew heavily on Nancy Fraser’s tripartite theory of justice and its three mutually constitutive dimensions: redistribution, recognition, and representation. For Fraser, justice requires participatory parity—conditions allowing all members of society to interact as peers. These conditions break down when: Redistribution is undermined through material inequality and economic exclusion. Recognition is denied through cultural hierarchies that devalue specific groups. Representation is distorted when political boundaries and decision-making structures exclude or silence certain voices.

Ürdem’s theoretical innovation was to show how neoliberal meritocracy—far from being a neutral fairness principle—produces systematic failures across all three dimensions. Meritocracy promises equal opportunity and rule by competence, but in practice, she argued, it becomes a justificatory regime that launders privilege, devalues non-dominant cultural repertoires, and delegitimizes democratic participation. She traced these failures in turn.

The Redistributive, Recognitional, and Representational Deficits of Meritocracy

First, redistribution failure occurs because meritocracy conflates procedural equality with outcome legitimacy. Drawing on Claire Chambers, Ürdem explained how the “moment of equal opportunity”—such as a supposedly fair university admissions process—obscures the accumulated advantages embedded in class background. Stratified education systems, far from leveling the playing field, amplify inequalities by rewarding those already endowed with cultural and economic capital. What appears to be the outcome of merit is often the endpoint of a process structured by inherited privilege. Thus, redistribution failure is built not only into welfare regimes but into the very definition of merit.

Second, and central to Ürdem’s contribution, is recognition failure, which she conceptualized as epistemic misrecognition. Meritocracy claims to be an objective measurement of intelligence and effort, yet it privileges middle-class cultural repertoires—such as negotiation skills, verbal expressiveness, and institutional navigation—as if they were neutral indicators of ability. Drawing on Annette Lareau’s distinction between “concerted cultivation” (middle-class childrearing) and “natural growth” (working-class childrearing), Ürdem showed how schools and employers interpret middle-class behaviors as talent while reading working-class dispositions as deficits. This is not merely cultural marginalization; it is an injury to one’s perceived capacity for reason. The working class is not only under-rewarded but rendered unintelligible within dominant rationalities. This epistemic misrecognition then feeds redistribution failure: only certain forms of knowledge are validated and economically rewarded.

Third, representation failure follows from the technocratic turn of neoliberal meritocracy. If political competence is equated with technical expertise, then democratic contestation is framed as inefficient or dangerous. Drawing on Hopkin and Blyth, Ürdem described how key economic decisions in Europe have been insulated from public influence in the name of market stability. Those already suffering from maldistribution and misrecognition are thus doubly silenced: they are deemed economically unviable, culturally irrational, and politically incompetent. Their grievances lack institutional channels for articulation.

Populism as the Consequence of Meritocratic Closure

Ürdem’s argument culminated in showing how these three failures converge to produce the exact conditions Laclau describes. Material insecurity, cultural devaluation, and political exclusion create a reservoir of unmet demands that cannot be expressed within the existing technocratic grammar. These demands—dismissed as resentment, envy, or irrational populist anger—accumulate and link together through the shared experience of being unheard and unrecognized. Populism, she argued, is the return of the political that neoliberal meritocracy tries to suppress.

In closing, Ürdem highlighted the three main contributions of her paper. First, it reframes populism not as a deviation from democratic norms but as a symptom of meritocratic closure. Second, it introduces epistemic misrecognition as a crucial mechanism explaining how meritocracy produces status injury and political alienation. Third, it builds a conceptual bridge between Fraser’s theory of justice and Laclau’s theory of political articulation, offering a relational language for analyzing how neoliberal meritocracy generates populist demands.

Ultimately, Ürdem’s presentation provided a compelling theoretical explanation for why grievances in contemporary democracies increasingly move through populist channels rather than traditional left-wing politics. By demonstrating how neoliberal meritocracy denies material security, cultural standing, and political voice, she argued that populism emerges as a rational—if explosive—response to a system that insists individuals both deserve their suffering and lack the vocabulary to articulate it.

 

Discussant Dr. Sanne van Oosten’s Feedback

Dr. Sanne van Oosten is a Postdoctoral Researcher at the University of Oxford.

 

As discussant, Dr. Sanne van Oosten offered an engaged, generous, and analytically sharp set of reflections on the three papers presented by Gabriel Bayarri Toscano, Maria Giorgia Caraceni, and Elif Başak Ürdem. She opened by emphasizing how impressed she was with the intellectual quality and timeliness of all three contributions, stressing that each paper was theoretically sophisticated, empirically grounded, and deeply attuned to current developments in populism research. Her comments combined appreciation with pointed questions designed to push the authors’ arguments further.

Reflections on Gabriel Bayarri Toscano’s Paper

Turning first to Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano, Dr. van Oosten praised his analysis of memes and AI-generated images as more than mere jokes, instead treating them as political artefacts that make complex ideological narratives instantly intelligible. She highlighted how convincingly his presentation showed that these visual forms translate abstract ideas into accessible, emotionally resonant symbols, thereby shaping how people perceive political conflicts and identities.

Dr. van Oosten drew an illuminating historical parallel between contemporary memes and earlier traditions of political cartoons. She noted that, for centuries, cartoons have functioned as dense, highly coded political commentaries that require substantial cultural and contextual knowledge to decode. In her view, Dr. Bayarri’s work sits in continuity with this long history: today’s memes, like past cartoons, demand a broad repertoire of cultural and political references from their audiences. She suggested that future historians are likely to use these memes in much the same way scholars now use historical cartoons—as windows into the emotional, moral, and ideological landscapes of a particular era. She invited Dr. Bayarri to reflect on how he expects these memes to be interpreted in hindsight: What broader narratives will they be seen as part of, and to what extent will their meaning remain legible to those lacking the original context?

Another key theme in her feedback concerned the democratization of image production. Dr. van Oosten underscored the significance of Dr. Bayarri’s observation that, with generative AI, users no longer need technical skills such as Photoshop to create powerful images. She encouraged him to delve more deeply into how this shift may or may not change the political communication landscape. While it seems that “anyone” can now produce striking visual content, Dr. van Oosten raised the possibility that this apparent openness might have limited real impact, depending on who actually controls visibility, distribution, and reach.

Building on this, she asked for more detail on the country comparison. Dr. Bayarri’s research shows notable variation in AI use between Brazil, Argentina, and El Salvador, with Brazil relying more on manually produced memes and El Salvador displaying the highest proportion of AI-generated images. Dr. van Oosten urged him to theorize why this is the case. Do these differences reflect national political cultures, varying levels of digital infrastructure, platform ecosystems, or simply the characteristics of the specific Telegram groups he studied? Exploring these explanations, she suggested, could considerably strengthen the comparative dimension of the paper.

Finally, Dr. van Oosten urged closer attention to authorship and agency in meme production. Drawing on an example from the Netherlands, where a major far-right meme group turned out to be administered by members of parliament rather than anonymous “ordinary” users, she questioned the common assumption that meme-makers are isolated individuals in their bedrooms. She encouraged Dr. Bayarri to investigate who actually produces the content he analyzed—grassroots supporters, organized campaign teams, party professionals, or hybrid constellations—and how their prompts, aesthetic choices, and strategic goals shape the memetic ecosystem.

Reflections on Maria Giorgia Caraceni’s Paper

Dr. van Oosten then turned to the paper by Maria Giorgia Caraceni, which she described as a highly impressive exercise in conceptual and historical synthesis. She commended Caraceni for bringing together Ernesto Laclau, Jean-Jacques Rousseau, and James Madison into a rigorous framework that clarifies how monist and pluralist understandings of popular sovereignty inform contemporary populist claims to majority rule. In particular, she appreciated how Caraceni showed that populism’s narrow conception of “the people” as a unified majority has deep roots in democratic thought, rather than being an abrupt contemporary aberration.

Her main invitation was for Caraceni to spell out more explicitly what is normatively and politically problematic about majority rule when it is equated with “the true people.” Dr. van Oosten suggested that while the paper clearly demonstrates how this conception marginalizes minorities, it could go further in specifying what, concretely, is lost when political systems center only the majority voice. Which minority experiences, vulnerabilities, or interests are obscured or silenced? How does this affect the quality of democratic citizenship and equality?

To deepen this point, Dr. van Oosten proposed an intersectional lens. Drawing on intersectional thinking, she noted that almost everyone is a minority in some dimension of their identity: a white man might be less educated, living with a disability, or economically precarious; a member of an ethnic majority might belong to a sexual or religious minority, and so on. From this perspective, minority protection is not about safeguarding a small, isolated segment of the population, but about recognizing that virtually all citizens have dimensions of vulnerability. She encouraged Caraceni to integrate this insight as a way of reinforcing her critique of monist majority rule and showing how the erosion of minority protections ultimately undermines democratic security for nearly everyone.

Dr. van Oosten also connected Caraceni’s theoretical framework to contemporary right-wing populism. She suggested that many actors on the right attempt to marry deeply unpopular economic agendas—such as policies favoring big business—with claims to represent the majority, often framed as the “white” or “ordinary” people. This allows them to appropriate the language of majority rule even when their economic programmes do not benefit most citizens. She encouraged Caraceni to engage with this paradox more explicitly, as it would further demonstrate the political importance of her conceptual work and reveal how appeals to “the majority” can obscure underlying alliances with powerful economic interests.

Reflections on Elif Başak Ürdem’s Paper

Finally, Dr. van Oosten addressed the paper by Elif Başak Ürdem, which she praised for its clarity and for the analytical power of its tripartite framework, drawing on redistribution, recognition, and representation. She found Ürdem’s critique of meritocracy particularly compelling, especially the argument that meritocracy amplifies existing class structures by valuing certain cultural repertoires and parenting styles while devaluing others. She linked this insight to the COVID-19 pandemic, when society sharply distinguished between “essential” and “non-essential” work—often revealing that many of the most necessary jobs were neither the highest paid nor the most prestigious. This experience, Dr. van Oosten suggested, dramatically illustrated the disconnect between meritocratic status and social value.

Her main question for Ürdem concerned what happens after populist radical right parties enter formal politics and even government. Ürdem’s paper convincingly theorizes misrecognition and status injury under conditions in which certain groups feel their views and ways of knowing are excluded from mainstream political representation. But in several countries—such as Italy or the Netherlands—previously marginalized populist radical right forces now hold significant power or participate in governing coalitions. Dr. van Oosten asked how this development affects the dynamics of misrecognition: Do supporters feel less misrecognized once “their” parties are in office, or does the sense of exclusion persist, perhaps redirected toward new enemies such as supranational institutions, domestic elites, or cultural minorities? She suggested that exploring these empirical cases could refine Ürdem’s argument and test its implications under changing political conditions.

Dr. van Oosten closed by linking Ürdem’s work to recent empirical research, such as studies by Caterina de Vries and colleagues on public service deprivation and support for the populist radical right. These studies show that tangible reductions in access to public services and state presence—whether in healthcare, local infrastructure, or everyday administration—significantly increase the likelihood of developing radical right attitudes and voting patterns. Dr. van Oosten argued that these findings resonate strongly with Ürdem’s emphasis on misrecognition and perceived abandonment, and she encouraged her to integrate such evidence more directly, as it would further substantiate her claims about the material and symbolic dimensions of exclusion.

Overall, Dr. Sanne van Oosten’s discussant feedback combined deep engagement with the authors’ arguments, thoughtful connections to broader literatures, and constructive suggestions for future development. Her interventions highlighted the conceptual richness and empirical relevance of all three papers and reinforced the central theme of the session: that understanding populism today requires grappling simultaneously with structures, narratives, identities, and the evolving conditions of democratic representation.

 

Presenters’ Responses to the Discussant

Following Dr. Sanne van Oosten’s detailed and generous discussant remarks on all three papers presented in Session 7, each of the authors offered thoughtful and discerning responses. Their replies not only clarified core dimensions of their arguments but also highlighted areas for further conceptual and empirical development. Collectively, their reflections underscored the intellectual richness of the session and the productive synergies between their respective approaches to understanding populism, representation, and democratic tension.

Response by Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano

Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano began by expressing deep appreciation for Dr. van Oosten’s insights, noting that her comments resonated not only with his own work but with the broader themes raised by the session. He addressed her first set of questions regarding the historical continuity between contemporary memes and older forms of political cartooning. Dr. Bayarri explained that he is currently preparing an application for a research grant with the British Library to analyze two centuries’ worth of political cartoons—an endeavor that he hopes will illuminate parallels between earlier visual political repertoires and today’s memetic ecosystems. His goal is to identify aesthetic and semiotic patterns that recur over time, particularly within Latin America’s visual construction of political enemies and moral antagonisms. Yet he cautioned that building such a historical bridge is methodologically complex. Unlike more recent comic traditions, older cartoons were produced under different political, cultural, and technological conditions, making direct linear comparison difficult. Nevertheless, he affirmed that Dr. van Oosten’s suggestion had strengthened his resolve to pursue these connections.

Dr. Bayarri then elaborated on the participatory and collaborative dimensions of contemporary meme production, clarifying that one key feature distinguishing memes from classic cartoons is the ability of users to modify, remix, and re-embed visual content. Even when a meme originates from a single creator, its life cycle involves numerous micro-alterations—changing symbols, colors, props, or textual overlays. He described this as a form of “compositional logic” fundamental to understanding the affective bonds and collective identity that emerge within far-right digital communities.

With the rise of generative AI, however, Dr. Bayarri observed a new paradox: while meme-making has become technically democratized, it also risks becoming re-individualized, since AI-generated images typically emerge from a single textual prompt rather than collective layering. This shift mirrors older forms of authorship and centralization found in 20th-century cartooning, thereby complicating assumptions about participatory production in digital environments.

Addressing the question of national variation in meme ecosystems, Dr. Bayarri noted that regulatory frameworks and the timing of fieldwork significantly shape the prevalence of AI-generated content. Brazil, which is gearing up for upcoming elections, has already begun debating and formulating regulations governing AI-produced images. Meanwhile, rapid technological innovations occurring within months of each electoral cycle mean that fieldwork snapshots inevitably capture evolving and uneven dynamics. He stressed that differences between countries often reflect the temporality of technological diffusion rather than stable cultural patterns.

Finally, Bayarri responded to Dr. van Oosten’s questions about authorship. He confirmed that meme producers range widely—from isolated individuals angered by corruption scandals, to organized far-right digital activists, to coordinated troll networks operating as part of broader communication strategies. His findings indicate a layered ecosystem in which spontaneous grassroots contributions coexist with strategically orchestrated propaganda infrastructures.

Response by Maria Giorgia Caraceni

Maria Giorgia Caraceni also conveyed gratitude for Dr. van Oosten’s constructive feedback. She clarified that her use of the term “majority” refers specifically to political or parliamentary majorities, rather than majorities in sociological or demographic terms. In her view, the central danger arises when such majorities operate without constraints, unencumbered by constitutional limits or checks and balances.

Caraceni emphasized two key risks. First, majorities are inherently transient; a group exercising unchecked power today may find itself marginalized tomorrow. Constitutional constraints therefore serve as safeguards not only for minorities but for the political majority itself. Second, in representative democracies, the absence of an imperative mandate means elected representatives may drift from their constituencies. Without institutional limits, citizens—including members of the majority—risk being exposed to abuses of concentrated authority.

She agreed with Dr. van Oosten that public misunderstanding about the function and purpose of constitutional constraints exacerbates this problem. Many citizens perceive constitutional limits as obstacles to popular sovereignty rather than as protections designed to secure democratic equality. For Caraceni, this signals a deeper cultural challenge, rooted in insufficient public knowledge about constitutionalism and democratic institutional design. She noted that dissatisfaction tends to reemerge during moments of economic hardship or geopolitical instability, when populist narratives gain traction by framing constitutional safeguards as elitist barriers to the people’s will.

While she acknowledged the difficulty of resolving this cultural and educational deficit, Caraceni affirmed that her future work aims to continue interrogating the structural tensions between monist and pluralist logics of sovereignty—tensions she believes are recurrent features of democratic life rather than temporary aberrations.

Response by Elif Başak Ürdem

In her response, Elif Başak Ürdem thanked Dr. van Oosten for raising crucial questions that helped refine her conceptual framework. Ürdem explained that her work increasingly focuses on class through the lens of recognition, particularly in relation to what Michael Sandel terms the “dignity of labor.” She reiterated that epistemic misrecognition concerns not merely cultural disrespect but the denial of moral equality—societal messages implying that certain forms of work, knowledge, or reasoning lack legitimacy.

Ürdem addressed the question of what happens when populist radical right parties gain formal representation or enter government. Drawing on Laclau’s notion of the double movement between represented and representative, she argued that once populist figures become institutional actors, their symbolic authority allows them to frame demands, grievances, and identities in powerful ways. This does not necessarily eliminate feelings of misrecognition. Instead, supporters may redirect their sense of exclusion toward new perceived antagonists—technocratic institutions, judicial bodies, EU frameworks, or cultural elites—maintaining a populist logic even after electoral success.

Finally, Ürdem reflected on the political implications of her research. She argued that scholars and political actors who oppose right-wing populism must engage more directly with questions of class, status, and recognition, rather than dismiss populist grievances as irrational. Populism, in her interpretation, signals a return of political contestation that neoliberal meritocracy sought to suppress. She concluded by noting that she intends to further clarify the contours of epistemic misrecognition in subsequent iterations of her work.

The presenters’ responses collectively demonstrated a shared commitment to deepening their theoretical and empirical approaches, while also highlighting the generative impact of Dr. van Oosten’s discussant interventions. Their reflections showcased three distinct yet complementary engagements with populism—as a visual and affective practice, a constitutional and philosophical dilemma, and a response to structural injustice and misrecognition. In doing so, they underscored the richness of Session 7’s contributions and the value of interdisciplinary dialogue in advancing contemporary populism research.

 

Q&A Session

The Q&A session brought forward a lively, intellectually generous exchange among the panelists, the discussant, and the audience. Moderated by Dr. Magno, the conversation unfolded as an open, exploratory dialogue, allowing participants to deepen key themes emerging from the three papers. The session illustrated how visual politics, democratic theory, and meritocratic misrecognition intersect in shaping contemporary populist dynamics.

Dr. Magno began by drawing historical parallels between Dr. Bayarri’s work on memes and his own earlier research on US colonial caricatures of Filipinos. He noted that early caricatures—produced in an era without radio or television—served as state-driven tools of othering that legitimized colonial domination. By contrast, he observed that today’s digitally generated memes democratize the power to distort, ridicule, or challenge political figures, shifting symbolic control from state institutions to digitally networked publics. This, he suggested, makes Dr. Bayarri’s work crucial for understanding how contemporary othering unfolds outside traditional institutional boundaries.

Dr. Bayarri responded by acknowledging Dr. Magno’s points on the historical legacy of visual stereotyping. He noted that AI-driven meme production has enabled new forms of symbolic violence, normalizing racialized or dehumanizing narratives under the guise of humor. Such normalization, he argued, can seep into public discourse and influence political behavior, including support for exclusionary policies. He affirmed that studying the evolution of these visual forms—both their genealogy and their political effects—remains central to understanding far-right mobilization.

The discussion then shifted to Elif Başak Ürdem’s presentation. Dr. Magno suggested that figures like Donald Trump may operate as examples of “criminal populism,” where political actors capitalize on their own legal troubles to attract supporters—a reversal of penal populism, which targets marginalized groups. He asked whether Ürdem saw Trump’s mobilization strategy as a form of epistemic misrecognition.

Ürdem offered a nuanced clarification. While Trump strategically uses misrecognition narratives, she argued that he does not embody them; rather, he appeals to supporters who feel politically powerless or epistemically dismissed. The issue, in her view, is not the charisma of elite leaders but the inability of existing political frameworks to absorb certain demands, a dynamic rooted in technocratic governance and meritocratic valuation. She stressed that when rational debate becomes circumscribed by elite-defined norms, grievances—however simple or uncomfortable—find alternative, populist outlets.

The final thread of discussion centered on Maria Giorgia Caraceni’s theoretical framework. Dr. Magno invited Caraceni to reflect on the phenomenon of voter regret among supporters of populist leaders such as Trump or Duterte—groups who later experience personal harm under the policies they endorsed. Caraceni acknowledged the complexity of this dynamic, noting that institutional design shapes both the risks and recoverability of populist excesses. Presidential systems, she suggested, are especially vulnerable due to heightened polarization and fewer internal constraints. Ultimately, however, she argued that these cycles underscore the fragility of democratic knowledge: voters often underestimate the protective role of constitutional safeguards until it is too late.

The session concluded with a contribution from Dr. Bülent Kenes, who suggested that Ürdem consider integrating Rawlsian ideas—particularly the “veil of ignorance”—to further illuminate meritocracy as inherited privilege rather than neutral achievement. Ürdem replied that although Rawls was not included in her presentation, his work, alongside Fraser’s and Laclau’s, is extensively engaged within her paper.

 

Conclusion

Session 7 of the ECPS Virtual Workshop Series offered a vivid demonstration of how interdisciplinary scholarship can illuminate the evolving relationship between populism and democratic representation in the twenty-first century. Across the three papers and the subsequent discussion, a unifying theme emerged: the crisis of representation is not reducible to a single institutional malfunction but is instead the outcome of intersecting structural, cultural, and epistemic transformations reshaping democratic life. By juxtaposing visual political cultures, the conceptual history of sovereignty, and the failures of neoliberal meritocracy, the session revealed that contemporary populism draws strength from multiple sites of dislocation—affective, constitutional, and socio-economic.

Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano’s work showed how memetic communication and generative AI reorganize the emotional infrastructures of politics, enabling far-right movements to mobilize affective communities and reinforce exclusionary narratives. Maria Giorgia Caraceni’s long-term theoretical perspective underscored that the conflict between monist appeals to a unified people and pluralist constitutional constraints is not an anomaly of the present but a recurring tension at the core of democratic sovereignty. Elif Başak Ürdem’s analysis further demonstrated how neoliberal meritocracy erodes participatory parity, generating misrecognition, political silencing, and an accumulation of unmet demands that increasingly crystallize in populist forms.

Equally significant were the insights of discussant Dr. Sanne van Oosten, whose commentary skillfully connected these diverse contributions. Her reflections highlighted how digital aesthetics, constitutional design, and meritocratic ideology collectively shape the representational vacuums in which populism thrives. The presenters’ responses reinforced the session’s central insight: that understanding populism requires attention to both deep structural contradictions and the emergent cultural and technological terrains through which political identities are forged.

Ultimately, Session 7 illuminated how the crisis of representation is inseparable from broader contests over sovereignty, recognition, and the definition of legitimate political knowledge. In doing so, it reaffirmed the necessity of interdisciplinary inquiry for grasping the complexities of democratic life in an age of resurgent populism.

Photo: Alejandro Perez.

Trump’s New Heavy Hand Strategy in Latin America

In this sharp geopolitical analysis, Dr. Imdat Oner examines the far-reaching implications of Operation Southern Spear, the Trump administration’s unprecedented shift from counternarcotics interdiction to direct military attrition across Latin America. Dr.Oner argues that the new strategy—marked by lethal maritime strikes, FTO designations, and carrier-led patrols—reflects far more than drug policy. It fuses domestic political messaging, America First security rhetoric, and a renewed push to reclaim hemispheric dominance amid Chinese and Russian encroachment. As Washington mobilizes a coalition of regional partners and intensifies pressure on Venezuela, Dr. Oner warns that this emerging “neo-Monroe Doctrine” could redefine US–Latin America relations for years to come. 

By Imdat Oner*

When Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced “Operation Southern Spear” earlier this month, the language was typically martial, but the implications were far more profound than the standard Pentagon briefing. Hegseth did not just promise more patrols; he declared a mission to “remove narco-terrorists from our hemisphere.”

If there was any doubt about what “remove” meant, the wreckage of smuggling vessels in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific makes it clear. Since September, US forces have carried out more than 20 lethal strikes against suspected drug boats, killing over 80 people. This is no longer a law enforcement mission. It marks a shift in Washington’s approach to Latin America, one that combines domestic politics, great-power competition, and the reassertion of regional primacy into a single, forceful strategy.

The most significant change in Operation Southern Spear is the move from interdiction to outright attrition. For decades, the US approach relied on Coast Guard vessels chasing fast boats, arresting crews, and bringing cases to federal court. Now, US forces are authorized to neutralize targets on the spot.

The administration insists these groups can no longer be treated as ordinary criminal networks. By designating them as “Foreign Terrorist Organizations” (FTOs), Washington has reclassified them as armed adversaries. What was once a judicial process has now been militarized. Smugglers are no longer suspects entitled to due‑process rights; they are cast as enemy combatants, comparable to Middle Eastern terror groups, and subject to the laws of war.

The consequences are already visible. The deployment of carrier strike groups, including the USS Gerald R. Ford, to the Caribbean signals a new operational posture. These assets bring the surveillance reach and strike precision of a full military campaign, enabling US forces to detect and destroy targets in real time. Some allies, notably the UK, have pulled back intelligence cooperation over legal concerns. Yet Washington presses forward, wagering that the American public cares more about stopping fentanyl and cocaine than parsing the fine points of international law.

Low-Cost Abroad, High Reward at Home

The expansion of US activity in Latin America is not just about drug interdiction, it is about domestic politics. For the Trump administration, counternarcotics operations deliver a message that resonates deeply with the MAGA base: toughness on crime, border security, and sovereignty. Unlike distant wars in the Middle East, which drained resources and eroded public support, operations in the Caribbean and Pacific are geographically closer, politically safer, and far less expensive.

Latin America provides a theater where Washington can project military strength without massive deployments, nation-building, or trillion-dollar costs like those seen in Iraq and Afghanistan. Strikes against drug boats are framed as defending American communities from narcotics and illegal flows, tying directly into the administration’s America First agenda. For Trump’s supporters, this is not abstract geopolitics, it is a fight that connects directly to domestic concerns about drugs, immigration, and security.

Counternarcotics is therefore more than a foreign policy initiative. It is a domestic political tool, a way to demonstrate action on issues that matter most to the MAGA base while avoiding the political toxicity of “forever wars.” By shifting the line of defense from the border wall to the open seas, the administration has turned Latin America into the frontline of its domestic security narrative: low cost, high reward, and central to sustaining its political appeal.

But this approach is not cost‑free. Precision strikes and carrier deployments may be cheaper than ground wars, yet they still require billions in defense spending, expanded surveillance, and long‑term naval commitments. Legal challenges, strained alliances, and the risk of civilian casualties already sparked discussions at home. What looks like a low‑cost, high‑reward strategy abroad may prove politically and financially demanding at home.

The Neo-Monroe Doctrine in the Hemisphere

Operation Southern Spear should not be understood narrowly as a counternarcotics initiative or a maneuver in domestic politics. It represents Washington’s delayed response to a strategic vacuum in Latin America that persisted for two decades, a vacuum that China and Russia systematically exploited.

Between 2000 and 2020, Beijing and Moscow pursued complementary strategies that reshaped the geopolitics of the hemisphere. China adopted an economic statecraft approach, expanding trade with the region from $12 billion in 2000 to more than $315 billion by 2020. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing extended over $130 billion in state-backed loans, securing long-term stakes in critical infrastructure such as ports, energy grids, and mining concessions from Ecuador to Brazil. This economic entrenchment was not merely commercial; it was designed to translate into political leverage and strategic dependency.

Russia, by contrast, sought to erode US security primacy directly. Leveraging the “Pink Tide” of leftist governments, Moscow became the leading arms supplier in the region, providing Venezuela alone with more than $20 billion in advanced systems including Su‑30 fighter aircraft and S‑300 missile defenses. Russian Tu‑160 nuclear-capable bombers flying sorties over the Caribbean in 2008, 2013, and 2018 underscored Moscow’s intent to contest US dominance in its own near abroad.

For US policymakers, these developments constituted not a marginal nuisance but a sustained strategic encirclement. Operation Southern Spear must therefore be read as an effort to reassert hemispheric control. The recent designation of Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles, a network allegedly embedded within the Venezuelan military, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization is central to this recalibration. By reframing Venezuela from a diplomatic irritant into a national security threat, Washington lowers the threshold for coercive measures and broadens the toolkit available.

This designation opens the door to cyber operations, tougher financial sanctions, and possible military strikes. It marks a clear doctrinal shift: Washington now views Latin America as a strategic theater, not a peripheral concern. The United States is moving to reassert dominance in its own hemisphere, even if that means greater confrontation with China and Russia.

A New Neighborhood Watch

Operation Southern Spear comes at a moment when regional politics are shifting in Washington’s favor. Argentina is aligning more closely with US security frameworks. Ecuador is recalibrating in similar fashion. Bolivia is engaging more constructively with US initiatives. Several Caribbean states are also moving toward Washington. Together, these shifts give the United States the foundation for a coalition designed to isolate Venezuela.

Argentina under Javier Milei has embraced a pro‑Washington agenda. It has signed trade and investment frameworks that bind its economy to US markets while distancing itself from Beijing and Moscow.

Ecuador has recalibrated in similar fashion. It is reducing reliance on Chinese loans and deepening cooperation on counternarcotics and security.

Bolivia, once a stalwart of the “Pink Tide,” now engages more constructively with US initiatives. This shift signals the erosion of the leftist bloc.

The Caribbean adds strategic depth. Guyana, buoyed by its oil boom, has welcomed US energy firms and defense cooperation, positioning itself as a bulwark against Venezuelan claims. Trinidad and Tobago, a regional energy hub, has expanded counterterrorism and maritime security ties, anchoring Washington’s presence in the southern Caribbean.

Together, these moves give Washington real support. They build a coalition that isolates Venezuela both diplomatically and militarily. Operation Southern Spear is not a unilateral show of force. It is the core of a broader strategy of punitive containment, treating the Caribbean and northern South America as one theater of operations.

Yet, it’s also important to note that this is not an Iraq‑style invasion. President Trump has little interest in a ground war that could bog down his administration. The strategy instead points to a blockade enforced by precision strikes, supported by regional partners that give US action legitimacy.

Operation Southern Spear is more than a tactical campaign. It signals a new phase in which US influence must be defended with force, rival powers contained, and the region’s trajectory actively shaped. The question is not whether Washington will stay engaged in Latin America, but how far it will go to redefine the balance of power. Judging by the smoke rising over the Caribbean, the Trump administration’s answer is clear: as far as necessary.

 


(*) Dr. Imdat ONER is a Senior Policy Analyst at the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy at Florida International University (FIU). He holds a Ph.D. from FIU, where he completed a dissertation titled “Great Power Competition in Latin America Through Strategic Narrative.” Prior to joining FIU, he served as a Turkish diplomat, most recently at the Turkish Embassy in Caracas, Venezuela, where he was the Deputy Head of Mission and Political Officer. His expertise lies in International Relations, with a primary focus on Latin American politics. Dr. Oner has published extensively on Venezuelan politics and Turkish foreign policy, with articles appearing in War on the Rocks, The National Interest, Americas Quarterly, Foreign Affairs Latinoamérica, and the Miami Herald. He is also a frequent contributor to Global Americans. His analyses have been featured in international media outlets, including Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, Miami Herald, and Agencia EFE.

A survivor of domestic abuse sits in silence, reflecting the fear, trauma, and isolation experienced by countless women affected by violence, harassment, and exploitation. Photo: Dreamstime.

November 25: The Normalization of Violence and the Forgetting That Keeps It Alive

In this compelling VoY essay, Emmanouela Papapavlou confronts the uncomfortable truth behind society’s yearly cycle of remembrance on November 25th. Drawing attention to the gap between public displays of solidarity and the everyday normalization of gender-based violence, Papapavlou argues that symbolic outrage too often gives way to collective amnesia. She highlights how cultural attitudes, institutional responses, and pervasive biases continue to silence women long after the awareness campaigns fade. This powerful reflection challenges readers to rethink what it truly means to remember—and what it would take to break the cycle of forgetting that enables violence to persist.

By Emmanouela Papapavlou*

Every year, on November 25th, the International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women, we collectively remember. Or at least, we pretend to. We speak about statistics, about bruises that never made it to the news, about women whose names became hashtags only after their lives were taken from them. We speak about abuse as if it were an unexpected tragedy instead of a structural reality. And, on this day, we suddenly remember surveys and studies that have been sitting on desks and websites for months. They resurface not because something changed, but because today, the world feels obligated to look at them.

One of these reports, brought back into the spotlight once again, reminds us that one in three women over the age of fifteen has been subjected to domestic or sexual violence. A number repeated so often that it risks becoming meaningless, yet behind every “one” is a life permanently split into “before” and “after.” Tomorrow, not metaphorically, literally tomorrow, this report will be forgotten. We know this cycle. We’ve lived this cycle.We will slide right back into the comforting loop of what we call “normality.” And that is the most devastating truth: the empathy of today, no matter how intense, rarely survives beyond these twenty-four hours. We talk, we post, we condemn. We temporarily allow ourselves to feel. But the next morning the world resets. Outrage fades. Commitment dissolves. And we return to a daily life that quietly, steadily, and consistently tolerates violence against women as a background condition of society.

Politicians will step forward to insist that “progress has been made.” They will talk about panic buttons, shelters, hotlines, protocols, committees, and agencies. They will list every tool created over the past decades, as if the presence of infrastructure were equivalent to the presence of justice. But women know better. You know it. I know it. Every woman who has ever hesitated before speaking knows it. Reality does not change just because systems exist on paper. Reality does not change because a country has a handful of shelters while countless women remain too afraid to simply pick up the phone.

Because violence doesn’t hide in the absence of services. Violence hides in the culture that shapes how those services respond. Violence hides in the judgments whispered behind closed doors. Violence hides in the tone of the questions asked by police, by courts, by the media. Violence hides in our normality.

A normality that allows political representatives to make sexist, demeaning remarks publicly and return to their roles a few months later without consequence.

A normality that allows television panels to sneer at, interrupt, belittle, or humiliate women while the audience laughs or scrolls on. A normality that allows courtrooms to ask, “What were you wearing?” or “Why didn’t you leave sooner?” instead of asking the only question that matters: “What was done to you?” A normality that allows lawyers, people responsible for upholding justice, to be perpetrators of intimate partner violence while society digs for ways to blame the woman. A normality where a terrified woman can call for help and hear the phrase: “A police car is not a taxi.” A normality that teaches women every day, in every small way, that they must endure, justify, or hide what has happened to them.

And so, many women choose silence, not because they lack strength, but because they know exactly what comes next if they dare to speak. They know they will be interrogated, doubted, scrutinized. They know their character, their clothing, their tone, their past relationships, their mental health, their messages, their behavior, everything except the behavior of the perpetrator, will be put on trial. They know he will be offered excuses: stress, alcohol, jealousy, passion, misunderstanding. And they will be offered judgment.

We keep talking about panic buttons as if technology can solve what culture refuses to confront. But violence does not end because a button exists. Violence ends when a society refuses to tolerate the conditions that make that button necessary in the first place. And the truth is uncomfortable: We tolerate these conditions. We normalize them. We teach them, sometimes without noticing.

Every November 25th, we post, we share, we mourn, we “raise awareness.” And then, quietly, predictably, we forget. Reports will continue to be published. More women will become statistics before they become stories. More anniversaries will arrive to remind us of what we collectively failed to address.

The real question, the painful question, is not whether violence will continue. It is whether we will continue to look away. Whether we will continue to allow tomorrow to erase today’s conscience. Whether we will continue to slip back into a normality built on silence, excuses, and selective memory. So the question remains: Will we continue to forget? Or will we finally demand a world where remembering is not limited to a single day?



(*) Emmanouela Papapavlou is a high school student from Thessaloniki, Greece, deeply passionate about social and political issues. She has actively participated in Model United Nations and other youth forums, serving as a chairperson in multiple conferences and winning awards in Greek debate competitions. Writing is her greatest passion, and she loves using it to explore democracy, civic engagement, and human rights. Her dream is to share her ideas, inspire action, and amplify the voices of young people who want to make a difference. Email: emmanpapapavlou@gmail.com

Tractors with posters of farmers protesting against the government's measures at the Ludwig Street in Munich, Germany on January 8, 2024. Photo: Shutterstock.

How European Populists Turn Farmers’ Anger into Political Power

In this ECPS Voices of Youth contribution, Kader Gueye examines how European populist movements are transforming genuine agrarian grievances into political capital. From Dutch nitrogen protests to French mobilizations against the EU–Mercosur deal, Gueye shows how populist actors amplify farmers’ discontent by framing it as a moral struggle between “ordinary people” and “distant elites.” While such narratives generate visibility and significant institutional leverage—as illustrated by the rise of the BBB in the Netherlands and the far right’s support for French blockades—they rarely address the structural drivers of rural hardship, such as volatile markets, supply-chain imbalances, and climate pressures. Gueye argues that without constructive long-term solutions, populist exploitation risks deepening divisions and leaving farmers’ core challenges unresolved.

By Kader Gueye*

Across Europe, images of tractors lining highways have become quite familiar. Farmers block roads, dump manure at ministry gates and brandish placards about survival and “fair competition.” Falling incomes, volatile markets, and increasingly demanding environmental and trade rules have defined their grievances. The political environment that has grown around these protests is not solely about farm policy, but how populist actors have turned agrarian discontent into leverage without offering credible plans to solve the underlying crisis. 

Political farmer mobilization has become politically decisive not simply because of their scale, but because populist parties and their allies translate and diffuse their genuine grievances into a simplistic narrative of “the people” versus “distant rule-makers,” and convert that narrative into institutional power. Notably, the Dutch Farmer-Citizen Movement (BoerBurgerBeweging — BBB) and the French debate over the EU-Mercosur trade deal illustrate this translation and provide an example onto why farmers’ structural problems are often left unresolved. 

Populism and Agrarian Discontent

Political scientists usually describe populism as a “thin” ideology that divides society into two camps: a virtuous people and a corrupt elite, and that insists politics should express the general will of those people (Mudde, 2004). Because it is “thin,” populism needs a host ideology or a concrete issue to attach to. Agrarian discontent has become one of those issues in Europe.

Farmers are often portrayed as the most authentic part of “the people,” especially in countries with a strong rural identity. When farm incomes stagnate, or when new rules arrive from, say, Amsterdam or Paris in the name of environmental protection, it becomes easy to cast farmers as victims of remote decision-makers who may not truly understand life outside the cities.

However, real agrarian grievances are complicated. Farmers face pressure ranging from large supermarket chains, extremely volatile export markets and rising input costs, all while they are being asked to cut emissions, protect biodiversity and adapt to extreme weather linked to climate change (Henley & Jones, 2024). Populist actors rarely talk about all of these drivers at once. They select the parts that fit their story about out-of-touch elites and elevate those parts into a moral conflict. That is the “translation” this article will focus on.

Agrarian Populism in the Netherlands

Dutch farmers protest against measures to reduce nitrogen emissions in the city centre of The Hague, the Netherlands, on June 28, 2022. Photo: Dreamstime.

The BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB) was founded in 2019 by journalist Caroline van der Plas and agrarian advocates. The party initially presented itself as a voice for farmers and rural citizens who felt left behind by the urban political elites. Its platform opposed compulsory farm buyouts and demanded a slower transition on nitrogen regulations, with an increased emphasis on technological solutions and voluntary change (Hendrix, 2023).

During the nitrogen protests, BBB politicians regularly appeared at demonstrations, amplified farmers’ slogans and insisted that ministers and unelected EU bureaucrats did not understand rural life. The core message of the BBB was that the government was threatening food producers, while protecting abstract environmental goals. That narrative connected easily with populist language about “ordinary citizens” versus “climate elites.”

The crucial step came during the 2023 provincial elections. BBB transformed the visibility of road blockades into electoral support and won more seats than any other party across all provinces. Because provincial councils elect the Dutch Senate, the party also became the largest group in the upper house (Reuters, 2023).

In that position, BBB gained significant bargaining power. With its newfound power, it could support, amend or stall national laws, including those related to nitrogen emissions. Analysts at the Clingendael Institute describe this as a shift from street protest to “institutionalized leverage” that changed how the entire party system talked about rural concerns (van der Plas & Candel, 2023).

Yet the deeper policy problem remains. Court rulings still require substantial reductions in nitrogen emissions in sensitive nature areas, and new permits for construction are constrained as long as the problem is not resolved (Candel, 2023). BBB has pushed for looser targets and slower timelines but has not presented a comprehensive plan that both satisfies legal obligations and gives farmers a clear long-term horizon.

In practice, this means farmers continue to face uncertainty about land values, future production levels and investment decisions. Populist framing has helped them obtain more political attention, but it has not delivered a stable settlement that combines environmental goals with rural livelihoods.

Tractor Blockades and ‘Fair Competition’ in France 

In early 2024, French farmers blocked key highways, encircled Paris with tractor convoys and targeted wholesale markets. where they protested low farm incomes as well as complex regulations. Many of the farmers believed they had to follow much stricter environmental and animal welfare guidelines than did many of their international competitors who exported products into the same markets that the French farmers sold into. (Al Jazeera, 2024)

“Fair competition” was the repeating mantra of these protests. French Farmer’s Associations argued that due to strict environmental and animal welfare laws paired with trade agreements signed by the European Union to allow increased imports from countries with looser regulations, French farmers were at a severe competitive disadvantage. 

The main driver of this argument was the European Union-Mercosur Trade Agreement, a proposed deal between the European Union and the Mercosur block composed of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. The agreement would lower tariffs and open markets for crucial goods like beef and various industrial products (European Parliament, 2023). French farmers speculated that the increase in imports of beef, poultry and sugar from South America would put pressure on European farmers to compete with unregulated foreign producers whom they viewed as operating under unfair conditions. 

Here, far-right populist parties saw a chance to expand their rural base. Marine Le Pen, leader of the Rassemblement National (RN) party, openly expressed her support of the farmers’ blockades and argued that the protesters were evidence of how the EU’s “green bureaucrats” and “globalists” were harming the interests of French farmers and ultimately threatening the native French way of life (Harlan, 2024). Le Pen and the RN leadership described themselves as champions of the “Real France,” defending its people against technocratic elites in Brussels and disconnected elite groups in Paris, a theme that is often repeated by populists.

What Are the Consequences? 

Across these two examples, the populist translation of farmer grievances into policy leverage had a number of consequences, the first of which was the simplification of the intricate causes of farmers’ issues. Global market dynamics, domestic policy decisions, corporate concentration, and environmental constraints all contribute to agrarian hardship. Populist narratives, however, focus more on the role of Brussels or environmental regulations and less on the domestic supply chain power or the climate crisis itself (Henley & Jones, 2024; van der Ploeg, 2020). This selective focus makes it easier to mobilize anger, but it restricts the range of solutions that are politically thinkable. 

This phenomenon also makes long-term transition planning more challenging. For instance, populists in the Netherlands claimed that any attempt to establish legally binding emission reduction pathways was evidence that the elites were attempting to “shut down” family farms and any trade agreements are viewed as betrayals of the rural populace in France. These populist portrayals leave little room for negotiated packages that can combine stricter rules with strong support for innovation and major diversification (Hendrix, 2023; van der Plas & Candel, 2023).

The last, and perhaps most apparent effect of this framing is the deepening of social divisions. Here, farmers are pitted against urban consumers and environmental activists, despite the fact that both groups may be interested in a more resilient and sustainable food system. The differences among farmers themselves get blurred as well. Large and intensive operations and small farms have very different capacities and interests, yet populist discourse typically frames them as a monolith, a single, unified “people of the land.”

Towards More Constructive Leverage

Cows grazing on a green pasture in rural Brittany, France. Photo: Elena Elisseeva.

None of this implies that populist parties never raise legitimate concerns or that farmer protests are illegitimate. The demonstrations show genuine worry about rural futures as well as genuine dissatisfaction with the way trade and environmental policies have been presented and organized. The question is how to turn this mobilization into leverage that produces lasting solutions rather than recurring crises. In the current policy discussions, a few options stand out.

Combining comprehensive rural transition contracts with environmental targets is one strategy. For instance, policy analysts in the Netherlands have proposed packages that combine investments in non-agricultural rural jobs, incentives for nature-inclusive farming, and targeted buyouts. The aim being to give farmers a predictable route as opposed to a string of brief shocks (Candel, 2023).

Another approach is to address power imbalances in the food chain. More transparency in pricing, support for producer organizations, and stricter regulations on supermarket purchasing practices could put some pressure on big retailers and processors, who currently hold a significant portion of value added, rather than individual farms (Henley & Jones, 2024).

Lastly, democratic actors require narratives that link rural justice with biodiversity and climate goals. This entails acknowledging that rural areas have historically been neglected, valuing farmers’ knowledge, and incorporating them early in the policy-making process. It becomes more difficult for populists to claim that the countryside can only be protected through complete resistance when transitions are co-designed rather than imposed (European Center for Populism Studies, n.d.; Van der Ploeg, 2020).

As European societies struggle with issues like food security, climate targets, and shifting trade patterns, farmer protests are likely to continue. The key issue is not whether or not farmers voice their dissatisfaction, but rather who uses it as political leverage and for what purposes. Currently, populist actors are adept at turning rage into visibility and temporary power. When it comes to providing reliable, widely accepted roadmaps for the future of European agriculture, they are far less persuasive.


 

(*) Kader Gueye is an IBDP student at Upper Canada College in Toronto and an aspiring diplomat. He has contributed to briefing work in a federal office and organized student programming on global child protection and civic engagement. His current work examines how institutions stay resilient when politics are under strain.


 

References 

Al Jazeera. (2024, January 30). France announces new measures in bid to quell farmers protests. Al Jazeera.

Candel, J. (2023, June 13). Nitrogen wars: How the Netherlands hit the limits to growth. Green European Journal.

European Centre for Populism Studies. (n.d.). Agrarian populism. European Centre for Populism Studies.

European Parliament Research Service. (2024, December 19). EU–Mercosur trade deal: Answering citizens’ concerns.European Parliament.

Farmer–Citizen Movement. (n.d.). Farmer–Citizen Movement. In Wikipedia.

Harlan, C. (2024, April 11). Europe’s farmers are in revolt and the far right is trying to harness the anger. The Washington Post.

Henley, J., & Jones, S. (2024, February 10). ‘They are drowning us in regulations’: How Europe’s furious farmers took on Brussels and won. The Guardian.

Hendrix, T. (2023). The Dutch farmers movement (Master’s thesis). Wageningen University.

Mudde, C. (2004). The populist zeitgeist. Government and Opposition, 39(4), 541–563. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00135.x

Reuters. (2023, March 16). Dutch farmers’ protest party scores big election win, shaking up Senate. Reuters.

Reuters. (2023b, June 29). Macron says current Mercosur deal impossible as is. Reuters.

Reuters. (2024, January 26). Europe’s angry farmers fuel backlash against EU ahead of elections. Reuters.

Reuters. (2024b, January 24). French farmers protest as anger grows over costs and regulations. Reuters.

Rooduijn, M., & de Lange, S. L. (2023, September 28). The resurgence of agrarian populism. The Loop.

van der Plas, C., & Candel, J. (2023, May 6). How Dutch farmers’ protests evolved into political mobilisation: A prologue for Europe?. Klingender Institute.

van der Ploeg, J. D. (2020). Farmers’ upheaval, climate crisis and populism. The Journal of Peasant Studies, 47(3), 589–605. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2020.1725490

Wikipedia contributors. (2024). 2024 European farmers’ protests. In Wikipedia.

Wikipedia contributors. (2024). 2024 French farmers’ protests

The President of Tunisia, Kais Saied  at the press conference with new Libyan Presidential Council head, Mohamed MenfiTripoli, Libya 17 March 2021

Civilizational Populism and Migration Diplomacy: Tunisia, the European Union, and Italy 

Please cite as:

Murphey, Helen L. (2025). “Civilizational Populism and Migration Diplomacy: Tunisia, the European Union, and Italy.” Journal of Populism Studies (JPS). November 23, 2025. https://doi.org/10.55271/JPS000121



Abstract

Civilizational populists prioritize territorial sovereignty in their approach to migration. In instances of North-South inequality, however, transit countries may be incentivized to accede to ideologically unpalatable agreements. To understand how these compromises are legitimized, this paper analyses Tunisia’s negotiations with the European Union following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding in July 2023 that laid the foundations for cooperation over irregular migration. The deal faced challenges on both the Tunisian and EU sides. Tunisian president Kais Saied, a civilizational populist, chafed at perceived EU paternalism and threats to Tunisia’s sovereignty. The deal was also controversial within the EU due to the Saied regime’s human rights violations, which led to further scrutiny of the Tunisian government’s migration management practices. This article finds that Italy’s mediation, spearheaded by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, was successful in addressing these tensions. By positioning Italy as separate from EU paternalism through a shared framework informed by civilizational populism, Saied could justify engaging in positive-sum diplomacy with the Meloni government and symbolically dispel perceptions of diplomatic asymmetry.

Keywords: migration, European Union, Tunisia, populist foreign policy, Italy

 

By Helen L. Murphey*

Introduction

In April 2024, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met with Tunisian President Kais Saied for the fourth time in a year. The visit was presented as a success: the two leaders vowed to deepen cooperation, notably over migration, based on the principle of mutual benefit (Gasteli & Kaval, 2024). This successful outcome followed a tumultuous negotiation period with the European Union over a joint approach to migration governance, as some European Union members drew attention to Tunisia’s human rights record, and Saied reiterated his refusal to act as Europe’s border patrol (Dahmani, 2024). 

A closer examination of Italy’s role in facilitating EU-Tunisian cooperation over migration helps unpack how populists use foreign policy to preserve sovereignty and mount a symbolic defense of an embattled national identity. It is a truism that populists tend to pursue foreign policy programs that strengthen national sovereignty at the expense of greater long-term international cooperation. This pattern is particularly pronounced when authoritarian populists are driven by strong ethnonationalist concerns, resulting in a reticence to adopt policy positions that might benefit other nations or minority groups (Wajner et al., 2024: 1825). Many such ethnonationalist populist actors can be identified as civilizational populists (Morieson, 2023), a phenomenon referring to populists around the world who adopt a culturalized understanding of the ‘people’ as belonging to a civilizational heritage (Yilmaz & Morieson, 2022b). Such rhetoric allows for boundaries to be drawn between insiders and outsiders that imply a concern with race and demography while instead using the language of culture and civilizational continuity (Mandelc, 2025). This both draws on nationalist tropes while also transcending them through reference to a more grandiose imaginary (Brubaker, 2017: 1211). 

For such actors, migration forms a particularly potent issue. Not only is it is seen to threaten the ‘purity’ of the nation or region’s people, but it also is typically associated with the priorities of elites and their neoliberal economic project (Stewart, 2020: 1210). Indeed, civilizational populists’ construction of the ‘elite’ presents them as “culturally deracinated” and antagonistic to cultural and national specificity, in Brubaker’s framing (Brubaker, 2017: 1192). Migration thus combines populism’s tendency to differentiate itself from both global elites and their ideology of cosmopolitanism, as well as the “dangerous” foreigners who are often linked to crime and disorder (Taguieff, 1997: 20). Meloni herself has referred to migration as part of a “globalist” project to render Italy more economically and culturally vulnerable by depriving its citizenry of their natural identities (Kington, 2022). Yet civilizational populism – and its connections to race, religion, and ethnicity – also helps illuminate the logic of why some migrants may be more accepted than others. For example, while the Meloni regime has been critical of policies allowing for the intake of Middle Eastern and African migrants and refugees, it has been more welcoming towards Ukrainians fleeing the conflict.

In Tunisia, the issue of migration has been particularly salient under the Saied regime. Tunisia has long been a country of departure for migrants seeking to reach Europe, a pattern which accelerated after the economic and political instability following the Arab Spring. Yet while in the past, most migrants transiting from Tunisia to Europe have been of Tunisian origin, since 2023 Tunisia has become the largest point of departure for sub-Saharan African migrants embarking for Europe (Abderrahim, 2024). This has introduced new dynamics, including growing racist and anti-sub-Saharan African sentiments, that have been intensified by European policy favoring the externalization of migration governance. 

In referencing migration, Saied has used language typical of civilizational populism: he has presented mass sub-Saharan African migration as a demographic threat to Tunisian identity. Such rhetoric was civilizational rather than solely ethnonationalist: irregular migration, in his words, would transform Tunisia from a member of the Arab-Islamic community to “just another African country” (Al Jazeera, 2023). This statement drew on a long history of contestation within negotiations over Tunisia’s regional identity, as well as long-standing marginalization of the country’s Black population (Mzioudet, 2024). After Saied voiced these sentiments in an infamous and controversial speech, Tunisian police began escalating repression of migrants and punishing organizations that advocate on their behalf. 

Yet in addressing this issue, the Saied regime has had to balance competing priorities, indicating the complex and shifting power dynamics constraining populists’ agency in the foreign policy arena. The EU has been willing to offer much-needed financial support in exchange for Tunisian cooperation over migration governance. This dependency makes it difficult for Saied to adopt a classic civilizational populist positioning, in which sovereignty is performed through pure oppositionality (Dudlak, 2025: 629). In effect, however, more interceptions of migrant crossings at sea have led to increasing numbers of sub-Saharan Africans stranded in Tunisia, unable to work or obtain housing due to stricter government policies and further inflaming tensions with Tunisian citizens.

This article analyses the tensions at work in EU-Tunisian migration negotiations and their resolution through Italian mediation. Through analyzing official statements, politicians’ interviews with the press, media coverage, and debates within the European Union from the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding in 2023 to the development of European-Tunisian migration partnership throughout 2024-2025, it traces the narratives advanced by proponents and antagonists of the MoU about migration within Tunisia, Italy, and the European Union. This allows for populism to be analyzed as both a strategy and ideology, builds on studies that similarly approach populism – and its links to securitized imaginaries – using a qualitative narrative analytical method centering intertextuality (Löfflmann, 2024). 

This study offers theoretical insights linking populist foreign policy to ontological security. Ontological security suggests that states – as well as international bodies – strive for continuity of identity, even at the cost of instability in their foreign relations (Mitzen, 2006). Through analyzing the EU-Italy-Tunisia relationship, this article argues that Meloni’s intercession, fueled in part by shared civilizational populist values between Meloni and Saied, helped the Saied regime cooperate with Europe whilst avoiding the appearance of subservience to the European Union. In so doing, it preserved both the ontological security of the Saied regime and its prioritization of sovereignty, as well as that of the European Union, who could distance themselves from the human rights abuses attending the deal. 

This article suggests that unequal power dynamics between the European Union and Tunisia – and between member states within the European Union – are essential in understanding the Saied regime’s seeming erraticism during migration negotiations. Consequently, it advances that bilateral relations between populists can be improved through symbolically differentiating themselves from multilateral institutions – which, in turn, can further empower populists on the global stage.


 

(*) Helen L. Murphey is a Post Doctoral Scholar at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies at The Ohio State University. She earned a PhD in International Relations from the University of St Andrews in 2023, where she was a Carnegie PhD Scholar. She has previously held an appointment as a Visiting Assistant Professor of Politics at Whitman College. She is a Research Associate at the Institute of Middle East, Central Asia and Caucasus Studies at the University of St Andrews and an Affiliate at the Center for the Study of Religion at the Ohio State University. Her research interests include populism, conspiracy theories, religious social movements and migration. Email: murphey.27@osu.edu | ORCID: 0000-0002-1504-3818

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