In this in-depth interview for ECPS, Professor Tim Bale offers a sharp assessment of Reform UK’s rise and Nigel Farage’s polarizing leadership. Farage, he argues, is “a Marmite politician — people either love or hate him,” making him both Reform’s engine and its constraint. Professor Bale suggests that Farage exemplifies “a classic populist radical-right leader” who channels anti-elite sentiment, yet risks alienating voters beyond his base. He links Reform’s surge less to ideological realignment than to Conservative decay, marked by Brexit fragmentation, leadership churn, and “over-promis[ing] and under-deliver[ing] on migration.” While Reform may reshape the political terrain, Professor Bale warns its ceiling remains visible—especially if questions of competence, Russia, and generational change intensify. Reform’s future, he concludes, is possible, but far from inevitable.
Giving an interview to the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Professor Tim Bale—Professor of Politics in the Department of Politics and International Relations at Queen Mary University of London—offers a wide-ranging analysis of Nigel Farage, Reform UK, and the structural realignments reshaping British party politics. His insights are grounded in decades of scholarship on party evolution, populist rhetoric, and leadership psychology, making his perspective essential for understanding the United Kingdom’s shifting electoral landscape.
Throughout the interview, Professor Bale situates Nigel Farage as both emblem and engine of Britain’s contemporary radical right. As he puts it, “Nigel Farage is, in many ways, a classic example of a populist radical-right leader,” one who mobilizes support through a moralized confrontation between “the people” and supposed elite betrayal. Yet Farage’s strength is also his constraint. Professor Bale memorably describes him as “a Marmite politician,” a figure voters “either love or hate,” noting that this polarization “probably places a limit on Reform’s appeal.” Farage, therefore, embodies both populist vitality and electoral risk—“the ideal leader” in the eyes of his base, yet “a figure of suspicion” for many beyond it.
This duality frames Professor Bale’s central contention: that Reform UK’s rise must be understood not only in ideological terms but as an artefact of Conservative decay. Years of intra-party conflict, Brexit-driven fragmentation, and “over-promis[ing] and under-deliver[ing] on migration” have opened political space for Farage’s insurgency. Yet Professor Bale cautions against assuming an irreversible realignment. The Conservative Party remains “rooted in the middle-class political culture of the UK,” with institutional depth and internal veto points that make any “reverse takeover” more difficult than populist narratives imply.
Focusing on the structural and sociological conditions that shape political possibility, Professor Bale further highlights a widening generational divide. While education and age have become stronger electoral predictors than class, cultural conflict alone cannot explain support for Reform. If public priorities shift back from national issues to personal ones—from immigration to “the cost of living, [and] the state of public services”—Reform’s momentum may plateau. Moreover, its perceived softness on Russia remains “an Achilles’ heel,” one that stalled its surge when public attention sharpened in 2024.
Across this interview, Professor Bale neither exaggerates inevitability nor discounts volatility. Instead, he offers a sober framework for evaluating whether Reform represents a durable transformation or a protest cycle with a ceiling. Britain, he suggests, now faces a future where polarization, demographic turnover, institutional vulnerability, and charismatic leadership converge—precariously. This conversation, therefore, is not only timely, but analytically consequential.
In this in-depth interview for ECPS, Professor Tim Bale offers a sharp assessment of Reform UK’s rise and Nigel Farage’s polarizing leadership. Farage, he argues, is “a Marmite politician — people either love or hate him,” making him both Reform’s engine and its constraint. Professor Bale suggests that Farage exemplifies “a classic populist radical-right leader” who channels anti-elite sentiment, yet risks alienating voters beyond his base. He links Reform’s surge less to ideological realignment than to Conservative decay, marked by Brexit fragmentation, leadership churn, and “over-promis[ing] and under-deliver[ing] on migration.” While Reform may reshape the political terrain, Professor Bale warns its ceiling remains visible—especially if questions of competence, Russia, and generational change intensify. Reform’s future, he concludes, is possible, but far from inevitable.
Giving an interview to the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Professor Tim Bale—Professor of Politics in the Department of Politics and International Relations at Queen Mary University of London—offers a wide-ranging analysis of Nigel Farage, Reform UK, and the structural realignments reshaping British party politics. His insights are grounded in decades of scholarship on party evolution, populist rhetoric, and leadership psychology, making his perspective essential for understanding the United Kingdom’s shifting electoral landscape.
Throughout the interview, Professor Bale situates Nigel Farage as both emblem and engine of Britain’s contemporary radical right. As he puts it, “Nigel Farage is, in many ways, a classic example of a populist radical-right leader,” one who mobilizes support through a moralized confrontation between “the people” and supposed elite betrayal. Yet Farage’s strength is also his constraint. Professor Bale memorably describes him as “a Marmite politician,” a figure voters “either love or hate,” noting that this polarization “probably places a limit on Reform’s appeal.” Farage, therefore, embodies both populist vitality and electoral risk—“the ideal leader” in the eyes of his base, yet “a figure of suspicion” for many beyond it.
This duality frames Professor Bale’s central contention: that Reform UK’s rise must be understood not only in ideological terms but as an artefact of Conservative decay. Years of intra-party conflict, Brexit-driven fragmentation, and “over-promis[ing] and under-deliver[ing] on migration” have opened political space for Farage’s insurgency. Yet Professor Bale cautions against assuming an irreversible realignment. The Conservative Party remains “rooted in the middle-class political culture of the UK,” with institutional depth and internal veto points that make any “reverse takeover” more difficult than populist narratives imply.
Focusing on the structural and sociological conditions that shape political possibility, Professor Bale further highlights a widening generational divide. While education and age have become stronger electoral predictors than class, cultural conflict alone cannot explain support for Reform. If public priorities shift back from national issues to personal ones—from immigration to “the cost of living, [and] the state of public services”—Reform’s momentum may plateau. Moreover, its perceived softness on Russia remains “an Achilles’ heel,” one that stalled its surge when public attention sharpened in 2024.
Across this interview, Professor Bale neither exaggerates inevitability nor discounts volatility. Instead, he offers a sober framework for evaluating whether Reform represents a durable transformation or a protest cycle with a ceiling. Britain, he suggests, now faces a future where polarization, demographic turnover, institutional vulnerability, and charismatic leadership converge—precariously. This conversation, therefore, is not only timely, but analytically consequential.
Here is the edited transcript of our interview with Professor Tim Bale, slightly revised for clarity and flow.
Farage Is a Classic Populist Radical Right Leader
Nigel Farage speaking in Dover, Kent, UK, on May 28, 2024, in support of the Reform Party, of which he is President. Photo: Sean Aidan Calderbank.
Professor Tim Bale, thank you very much for joining our interview series. Let me start right away with the first question: In your work with Cristóbal Rovira Kaltwasser on the mainstream right’s strategic squeeze between Inglehart’s “silent revolution” and Ignazi’s “silent counter-revolution,” how should we interpret the rise of Reform UK? To what extent does Nigel Farage embody a classic mobiliser of counter-revolutionary sentiment, and to what extent do the Conservative Party’s specific organizational, ideological, and reputational vulnerabilities make the UK an outlier in the broader pattern of West European party-system transformation?
Professor Tim Bale: I think you would have to say that Nigel Farage is, in many ways, a classic example of a populist radical-right leader. He constantly draws a distinction between the wisdom of “the people” and their alleged betrayal and condescension by elites. As for the Conservative Party, there has always been a strain of populism and nationalism—indeed, some would say jingoism—within its tradition. In recent years, particularly under Boris Johnson and during the Brexit campaign, this tendency has come to the surface. In that sense, the party has reached back into its more populist and nationalist heritage as a way of competing with Farage and the political space he has claimed.
The Tories Are Hard to Capture — But Not Impossible
Farage’s rhetoric about a prospective “reverse takeover” foregrounds questions of party permeability and factional capture. Drawing on your analyses of Conservative factionalism and recurrent leadership crises, what structural, ideological, and organizational conditions render the Conservative Party susceptible to colonization by a radical-right challenger? Conversely, what features of party culture, elite networks, or institutional veto points might inhibit such a takeover?
Professor Tim Bale: When you look at the Conservative Party, there are features that, while not necessarily inoculating it from the challenge Farage poses, do make such a takeover more difficult than some people imagine, in the sense that it is a party rooted in the middle-class political culture of the UK. It is a party that has existed for 200 years, and it has a strong sense of entitlement, as it were, and a strong belief that it is the natural party of government, and therefore will be able to resist, in some ways, any challenge from a newcomer.
Having said that, however, one feature of the Conservative Party that always has to be borne in mind is that it is very strongly a leadership-driven party, and that should a leader take over who is more receptive to the kinds of overtures that Nigel Farage and others are making, then it would be quite easy for that person to convert the party to taking a much more hospitable attitude to that development. So, on the one hand, the fact that the Conservative Party is old, has a brand, and has an infrastructure makes it quite difficult for somebody to take it over. On the other hand, it can be taken over quite easily from within, because it is so reliant on the leader to show it the way in terms of policy and organization.
Farage Is Reform’s Greatest Asset and Its Weakest Link
Stop Trump Coalition march, Central London, United Kingdom, September 17, 2025. A protester holds a sign reading “No to fascists — Trump, Musk, Farage.” Photo: Ben Gingell.
Your recent interview on Reform UK emphasizes Farage’s dual status as both the party’s central mobilizing force and its principal liability. How does this tension map onto broader theories of charismatic leadership, affective polarization, and “anti-system” appeal? In an increasingly fragmented multi-party context, does Farage’s polarizing image constrain the party’s governability narrative to the point of limiting its credible path to No. 10?
Professor Tim Bale: Nigel Farage is what we call, in England, a Marmite politician, which refers to a yeast-based spread that people put on their toast in the morning. People either love or hate that particular spread, and that’s very true of people’s attitudes to Nigel Farage. I think the fact that he is such a polarizing figure probably places a limit on Reform’s appeal. At the moment, it seems to be polling around 30% in the opinion polls, and I think that reflects the fact that he finds it difficult to appeal to voters who hate him, obviously, but also that ambivalent voters may be wary of the polarization he represents. So, I do think that is something of an obstacle to Farage’s progress. The anti-system appeal you mention is clearly attractive to some voters — people fed up with the two mainstream parties who want to smash the system. Anyone like Nigel Farage, who seems to offer a more radical alternative, is an appealing option for them. However, there is still a strong streak of small-c conservatism in the British electorate that would regard that as too radical, and that would like change — but not at the cost of dismantling a parliamentary, liberal, representative democracy that, in many ways, has served Britain well over the last couple of hundred years.
Reform’s Rise Is Built on Tory Collapse as Much as Ideology
Your research on Conservative leadership instability highlights the compounding effects of leader unpopularity, policy incoherence, and internal disunity on electoral performance. How much of Reform UK’s current momentum should be understood through the lens of “opportunity structures” created by Conservative decay, rather than any substantive ideological realignment toward radical-right policy demand?
Professor Tim Bale: As always, what we’re seeing is a combination of both. I mean, there is some genuine appeal of Reform UK’s policies and pitch to the electorate. But obviously, what has gone wrong with the Conservative Party has opened up avenues for Reform in a way that we haven’t seen before. In particular, the fact that the Conservative Party has really, since 2010, over-promised and under-delivered on migration has made it much easier for Farage to suggest that somehow it has failed voters and that it has not been able to, as it were, live up to their expectations.
Also, you would have to say that the way the Conservative Party has lost its organizational coherence, the way Brexit, for example, tore the party apart and made parliamentary discipline something of a fiction, hasn’t helped—nor has the party’s tendency to cycle through leaders so quickly. That has led to a feeling that the Conservative Party, oncea sort of solid, respectable governing party, has to some extent lost its way, even lost its mind, according to some voters. And I don’t think that has helped the Conservative Party, but I do think that’s helped Nigel Farage and Reform UK.
Many Tory MPs Would Be Comfortable in a PRR Party
In “Populism as an intra-party phenomenon,” you analyzed how Corbynism reconfigured Labour’s organizational dynamics and membership incentives. Do you observe analogous intra-party populist dynamics emerging within the Conservatives today—particularly in the struggle between traditional conservatives, post-liberal cultural conservatives, and those advocating rapprochement or fusion with Reform UK?
Professor Tim Bale: There are definitely, if not factions, then certainly groups within the Conservative Party who are battling it out for the party’s soul. You can see that there is very clearly a bunch of MPs who, if not wanting a merger with Reform UK, would actually be quite open to the idea of some kind of electoral pact with Farage’s party. I think that partly is instrumental opportunism on their part, in the sense that they think the Conservative Party is in trouble, and it needs an alliance of some kind with Reform UK to recover its fortunes.
But, there are MPs within the Conservative Party who, to be honest, would be quite comfortable belonging to a populist radical right party. They believe that Britain needs shaking up economically, and that the only way for that to happen is actually to get a greater level of support from the electorate, based on cultural concerns—concerns around immigration, woke issues, and green policies. That’s the only way of getting the kind of government that they want to actually dismantle some of the welfare state and some of the regulation that they think is holding Britain back. So, you have a strange situation in the Conservative Party where there are many advocates of a much more neoliberal conservatism who are prepared to adopt a more authoritarian stance on cultural concerns in order to get into government and implement the kinds of economic policies that they think are absolutely vital.
The Tories Are Now Moving on Migration in Farage’s Direction
Photo: Dreamstime.
Your comparative work on UKIP/Brexit Party and Australia’s One Nation highlights how radical-right “outsiders” can generate policy payoffs without executive power by reshaping the strategic environment of mainstream parties. How is Reform UK already influencing Conservative rhetoric, agenda-setting, and internal factional alignments—especially on immigration, welfare, and ECHR withdrawal?
Professor Tim Bale:You put your finger on a phenomenon that occurs throughout the world, and we’ve seen it all over Western Europe, when parties with little hope of actually governing—and certainly of joining a coalition—are capable of, as it were, moving the center of gravity in a system towards the populist radical right. When you look at the Conservative Party’s policy-making since 2024, and even actually before that, in response to the threat that Nigel Farage’s various parties—be it UKIP, be it the Brexit Party, be it Reform UK—you can clearly see that the Conservative Party has moved very much in his direction.
So, on migration, we now have a Conservative Party that has suggested—though there is some debate over whether it was intended seriously—withdrawing the indefinite right to remain granted to some non-citizens, and even opening up the possibility of them eventually being encouraged or indeed deported. That kind of mass-deportation approach is something previous Conservative governments would never have considered, and it reflects a direct response to some of Nigel Farage’s arguments.
Welfare is more complex. Farage is very aware that many of his supporters rely on the welfare state, and certainly on the National Health Service, so the Conservative Party must be cautious not to move too far toward his ambivalence on those issues. Instead, it tends to fall back on its more familiar low-tax, low-spend reputation.
On migration, that is the obvious one, where we’ve seen the Conservative Party move, just as we’ve seen parties, whether they be Christian Democrat or Conservatives across the continent, move very much towards a rather more kind of radical policy. You’d also have to look at environmental politics here, and it’s very clear that over the last few years, a Conservative Party that actually pioneered the move towards net zero—when Theresa May was Conservative Party Premier—is now really talking about winding back that commitment. I think, again, that is in response to Nigel Farage and Reform, and their promotion of the fossil fuel industry and its arguments.
Local Failures Might Not Dent Reform as Much as Opponents Hope
Reports of dysfunction in Reform-run local authorities raise questions about statecraft and institutional capacity. Given your longstanding argument that perceived competence ultimately constrains populist breakthroughs in Britain, do you anticipate that these governance shortcomings will erode Reform’s credibility? Or, alternatively, might anti-establishment narratives inoculate the party from such accountability?
Professor Tim Bale: That is a great question. We have seen Reform take over local authorities since spring of this year, and many of those councils have made rather a mess of things. They’ve fallen out with each other, they’ve found it much harder to make savings than they originally suggested, and in fact, they’re going to have to raise taxes rather than reduce them for local people. While the problems in those local authorities actually gain quite a lot of amused coverage in the media, I’m not sure how much the electorate in general pay attention to them if they’re not happening in their particular part of the country.
You raise a very good question here about the extent to which, if you criticize Reform UK, you actually strengthen, in some ways, the support for it among its die-hard advocates and voters. So, one would like to think that the example of local councils actually gives people pause for thought about whether it would be a good idea to elect Reform to the government of the country as a whole. But I rather doubt that it will have as big an impact as some of Reform’s opponents hope.
Hardline Accommodation Risks Alienating Supporters While Boosting the Radical Right
Your scholarship has shown that center-right parties often pre-empt or accommodate radical-right positions under competitive pressure. Should we expect Labour or the Conservatives to adapt their stances on immigration, welfare conditionality, or international legal obligations in response to Reform’s pressure? What do cross-national patterns suggest about the risks and limits of such accommodation?
Professor Tim Bale: We are already seeing in the UK the Labour government take a much harder line on migration than many of its supporters would like. It’s clear that that is a response by the government to losing votes to Reform. Current polling suggests that around 10% of people who voted for Labour in 2024 are now intending to vote for Reform, and Labour is desperate to get some of those people back, and by pursuing a more authoritarian stance on migration, they hope to do that.
You also point, however, to the fact that this has gone on all over the European continent. We’ve seen center-left parties as well as center-right parties pursuing a harder line on migration, and Denmark is often the country pointed to in this respect, perhaps as a successful example. But when we look across the continent as a whole, we don’t find that it is a particularly useful response for center-left parties to take. It ends up doing two things: first, alienating many of their more obvious supporters—in other words, people who have more liberal or left-wing values; and second, it tends to prove counterproductive or futile, in the sense that all it does is raise the salience of issues like migration in the minds of most voters, causing elections to be fought and debate to be conducted on terrain that actually favors populist radical right parties.
So, I personally wouldn’t advocate that as a response by the center-left, but it’s one that is still often mooted and taken by center-left parties, unfortunately.
Farage’s Sympathy for Putin Is an Achilles’ Heel
Stop Trump Coalition march, Central London, United Kingdom, September 17, 2025. Protesters dressed as Musk, Farage, Vance, Putin, Trump, and Netanyahu. Photo: Ben Gingell.
Your work on leadership perception underscores how trait attributions shape political choice. How electorally damaging is the perception that Reform UK is “soft on Russia,” particularly given polling indicating its unusually high association with pro-Russia sentiment? Does this reputational liability limit its potential to broaden its coalition beyond anti-establishment voters?
Professor Tim Bale: Reform’s support, Reform’s support, and certainly Farage’s apparent sympathy for Putin’s justification of the invasion of Ukraine, is something of an Achilles’ heel for him. To be clear, Farage has been careful not to appear as a superfan of Vladimir Putin, but he has repeatedly suggested that Russia’s invasion has been influenced by NATO “poking the Russian bear” and extending its influence into Ukraine in ways that allegedly threatened Moscow.
Polling from the 2024 election shows that the moment public attention focused on Farage’s more accommodating stance toward Putin and Russia, Reform’s upward trajectory stalled. This position is deeply unpopular in Britain, and it is something Farage will have to address seriously, especially ahead of the next election. After all, the country will be choosing a government and prime minister in a highly unstable geopolitical moment, and Russia is viewed by the overwhelming majority of Britons as the aggressor.
So, I think it is a limit to his appeal unless he begins to resile from it. At the moment, however, it doesn’t look as if he wants to do that. I should add a caveat here: when we look at other populist radical-right parties, and indeed more extreme variants of the radical right in Europe, there does not appear to be anything like the same level of enthusiasm for Russia and for Putin within Reform as we see in some of their continental counterparts.
Reform Voters Favor Leaders with ‘Dark Triad’ Traits
Your “What Britons Want in a Political Leader” study reveals stark divergences between the traits valued by Reform/Conservative members and those preferred by the broader electorate. What does this asymmetry imply about Reform’s sociological and psychological ceiling of support, and what does it reveal about the electorate segments most susceptible to Farage’s appeal?
Professor Tim Bale:What we find in our research is that supporters—and certainly members of Reform—have much more positive views about leaders who exhibit what psychologists would call dark triad qualities. In other words, those are Machiavellianism, for example, psychopathy, for example. That is a marked contrast with the supporters of other parties, although slightly less so with supporters of the Conservative Party, who are rather more like Reform.
I think this comes down, once again, to Nigel Farage’s appeal. For his supporters, he is, in some ways, the ideal leader: he exhibits the kind of ruthless and sometimes manipulative, clever qualities that they so admire. But those very same qualities are actually quite off-putting to a large segment of the British electorate. So once again, if we’re talking about limits to Nigel Farage’s appeal, the kind of leadership qualities that he has—the leadership that he demonstrates—make him intensely popular with his own supporters, because they are psychologically predisposed to like that kind of leadership. Whereas for many in the electorate, they make him a figure of suspicion rather than someone they would like to see leading the country.
The Greens, Not Corbyn, Pose the Greater Danger to Labour
Jeremy Corbyn, former Labour leader, during a visit to Bedford, United Kingdom, May 3, 2017. Photo: Dreamstime.
Reform appears to be peeling off older, culturally conservative, economically insecure voters, while recently founded socialist Your Party seems poised to attract younger, urban, progressive activists disillusioned with Labour. How vulnerable is Labour to a “two-front erosion,” and do Starmer’s strategic concessions on immigration and public order risk replicating the center-left dilemmas seen elsewhere in Europe?
Professor Tim Bale: You’ve seen recently Your Party try to get its act together. This is the party being set up by, among others, Jeremy Corbyn, who used to be the very left-wing leader of the Labour Party, and Zara Sultana, an ex-Labour MP. There is an extent to which this does threaten Labour’s hegemony on the left. There are many left-wing voters who are very disappointed with the Labour government, not least on its attitude to migration, but also on its attitude to tax and spend.
What I would say, however, is that I’m not sure Your Party is actually the biggest threat to Labour on that front. I think what we’ve seen recently is that the difficulties that Your Party have had in actually getting its act together, as I said before, mean that the Green Party has seized the moment. It’s elected a new so-called eco-populist leader, Zach Polanski, who appears to be saying and doing the kinds of things that people disillusioned with Labour would actually like—so, for example, wealth taxes, and a much more aggressive attitude to Nigel Farage and Reform UK.
So, if there is a kind of two-front war being fought by Labour—Reform on the one hand, and then a left-wing party on the other—it’s probably not Your Party; it’s probably the Greens that are the biggest threat on its left flank.
First-Past-the-Post May Save Labour
Drawing on your prior analyses of organizational dysfunction within left-of-center parties, how serious a threat is Your Party’s emergence—given its early factional disputes and resource constraints—to Labour’s ability to consolidate progressive voters? Might it institutionalize a structural cleavage on the British left akin to Podemos–PSOE or Mélenchon–Socialist Party dynamics?
Professor Tim Bale: There is a risk. There We talked about some of the problems that Your Party have had. There is a risk that if they can actually surmount some of the early difficulties that they have, then we do see a party on the left—whether it be Your Party or the Greens—actually draining support from Labour. Current opinion polling does suggest that around 10–15% of former Labour voters have drifted off and might drift off in that direction.
However, there’s always the constraining factor of our electoral system. It is always going to be possible for Labour, successfully or unsuccessfully, to argue that under a first-past-the-post system a vote for either the Greens or Your Party is a wasted vote, particularly if they are able to conjure up the possibility of a Reform government under Nigel Farage, which may frighten sufficient numbers of people who might otherwise be tempted to use their vote expressively and to vote for Your Party or the Greens. They may wonder whether that is a good idea and, actually, in the end, come back home to the Labour Party. Probably that is the Labour Party’s strategy at the moment.
Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, attends a joint press conference with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv, Ukraine, on January 16, 2025. Photo: Vladyslav Musiienko.
Conservatives Misread 2019 as Permanent Shift, Ignoring Voters’ Economic Priorities
In “Hopes Will Be Dashed,” you argued that Brexit negotiating strategies were deeply shaped by a pervasive “Merkel myth.” Do you see contemporary Conservative or Reform elites relying on analogous political myths—such as a presumed majority demand for “uniting the right,” a belief in the inevitability of populist realignment, or a misreading of public appetite for hard-liner sovereignty politics?
Professor Tim Bale: That is a great question. I think one of the problems that the Conservative Party in particular had was a misreading of the 2019 election result as proof of what they called the realignment. In other words, the sense that working-class voters in this country had moved very much to the right on social questions, on cultural questions, and therefore there was some kind of permanent change of which the Conservative Party would be the beneficiary—when in fact that election was, in some ways, a rather more contingent affair, influenced very much by Brexit, influenced very much by the personality of Jeremy Corbyn, and indeed, Boris Johnson.
That myth—the idea that somehow there has been this incredibly profound change, and that cultural politics is now the dominant factor in elections—is still something that the Conservative Party holds onto, much to its detriment. It’s very interesting when you look at the leadership election in the Conservative Party following the 2024 general election. All the talk was about the Conservatives’ failure on migration, rather than the Conservatives’ failure to provide the country with adequate economic growth and adequate public services.
So, there is a kind of fixation on cultural politics and on this so-called realignment that the Conservative Party still has, which makes it actually quite difficult for it to realize that there is more to life than migration and woke, and indeed net-zero—that, in fact, the British public are not that different in the sense that they still want a government that hopefully provides them with peace, prosperity, and public services that actually work.
Britain Is Slowly Becoming More Liberal
You have frequently noted the role of media ecosystems in amplifying or constraining radical-right actors. To what extent is Reform’s surge a product of media-driven agenda-setting, and to what extent does it reflect deeper structural and sociological realignments within British politics? How should we disentangle these forces analytically?
Professor Tim Bale: That is a great question, but it’s also a very complicated one. Having shed doubt on this idea of a realignment, it is definitely the case that class features much less as a driver of people’s voting in this country, and that, in fact, education and age, to some extent, now seem to be the best predictors of which way people are going to vote. I do think cultural questions have come up in the mix, but I would want to say that the economy—while it’s not the only thing, the only game in town—is still actually very important as a driver of the way that people vote.
If you step back and look at cultural change in this country, clearly there are many voters who are uncomfortable with that, but they tend to be in older generations and, of course, will eventually disappear from the electorate. Now, that’s not to say that the center-left will somehow come into a kind of inevitable inheritance, because younger voters are rather more liberal and more tolerant in their attitudes. But it is to say that the center-right has to be very careful that it doesn’t end up on the wrong side of history, to coin a cliché, and fails to recognize that, for all the turmoil going on in British politics, underneath that, voters are becoming rather more liberal, more tolerant, and—despite media-driven polarization—more comfortable with a multicultural, multi-ethnic Britain.
So how long politics and political parties can thrive by exploiting differences, concerns, and anxieties is an open question.
If Living Costs Top Immigration, Reform Could Stall
UK economic crisis concept illustrated with the Union Jack and forex market data trends (AI-generated). Photo: Yuliya Rudzko.
And finally, you have cautioned that a Reform-led government is “not inevitable.” What empirical indicators—electoral, organizational, reputational, or demographic—would persuade you that (a) Reform UK is on a trajectory toward executive power, or (b) its rise represents a cyclical protest mobilization likely to dissipate before the next general election?
Professor Tim Bale: You have to look at support for Nigel Farage in particular, and the extent to which people think he will or won’t make a good Prime Minister. In the end, people know that they are voting not just in protest against something but are actually having to elect a government that’s going to make some very important decisions, and Nigel Farage is so central to Reform’s appeal that what people think of him is extremely important.
You also have to look at the extent—and obviously this, to some extent, involves prediction as to which issues are going to be most important for people at the next election. At the moment, immigration seems to be top of the list, but it’s only top of the list when you ask people what is the most important problem facing the country. When you ask people what’s the most important problem facing you and your family, immigration drops down the list, and the cost of living, the state of public services, comes right up.
So, I would probably look at the extent to which that is changing. If people think that migration is making a difference to them and their family, then perhaps that bodes well for Reform. But if the current disjunction between what people think is important to the country and what people think is important to them and their families continues, Reform is less likely to gain in strength.
Then, you’d have to take account of the kind of geopolitical situation, given we’ve already talked about Russia being something of an Achilles’ heel for Reform UK. If you were to see any extension of Russia’s aggression in Europe, then that would make it very difficult for Reform UK to make a convincing case for government.
I’d also look at what’s happening to the Conservative Party to bring it full circle. If the Conservative Party continues to stay in the doldrums—in other words, if it can’t recover itself and it can’t get anywhere near 25–30% of the vote—then there are many people who would normally vote Conservative who might be prepared to vote Reform, and that would give Reform a chance of government.
One final thing to throw into the mix is that our electoral system is not really very well suited to the party system that we now have. We now have a five-party—maybe six, seven, eight-party—system in this country, operating alongside an electoral system that is suited only to two parties, which means that it could be possible that a party on just under 30% of the vote could get a majority in Parliament next time around, and that would be a very unstable situation for the UK.
Trump’s National Security Strategy marks a sharp break from post-Cold War US diplomacy: it portrays Europe, not rival powers, as the core site of Western civilisational decline. Warning of “civilisational erasure” through migration, demographic change and secularisation, it urges support for “patriotic European parties” resisting this shift. In this framing, the danger to the West is internal, not external, and the US becomes guardian of authentic Western identity—aligning more closely with Orbán, Meloni and PiS than with many elected governments. This leaves Europe facing a strategic dilemma: remain reliant on Washington or assert its own civilisational narrative. Europe must choose—adapt, resist, or define itself.
The release of its National Security Strategy shows the Trump Administration to be especially concerned with the decline of Western civilization. One passage in the document drew considerable international attention. It warned that Europe now faces the risk of “civilisational erasure” driven by migration, cultural and religious change, low birthrates and the loss of historical identity. Unless Europe “corrects its current trajectory,” the document claims it could become “unrecognisable in 20 years or less.” The United States, it argues, should help by supporting the “patriotic European parties” resisting this shift.
This language marks a significant break with post-Cold War US diplomacy, and signals that Washington intends to treat its relationship with Europe as an arena of ideological struggle. Throughout the document, Europe appears both as an ally and as a civilisation in decline. Moreover, European governments are portrayed as having adopted values and migration policies that undermine the foundations of the West itself. As a result, the document implies, the United States has no choice but to ‘correct’ Europeans and essentially force them to reconnect with their traditional and authentic Christian-based civilization.
Fears of Western decline are not new. Even in the year 2000, which may have been the high point of Western power and influence, American writer Jacques Barzun argued in his surprise bestseller From Dawn to Decadence that the West had entered a period of decadence. Barzun meant cultural exhaustion and the fading of artistic and intellectual ambition, not geopolitical weakness. He was not concerned with demography or the strategic balance of power. A generation later the picture is different. The sense of Western decline is no longer limited to cultural pessimists. Analysts now describe American relative decline, a stagnant Europe, and a China confident enough to present its rise as civilizational renewal.
This raises an important puzzle. The National Security Strategy presents Europe as a civilisation in decline but does not treat Russia, China or India in the same civilizational terms, even though these states are the United States’ principal strategic competitors. This is especially surprising insofar as those nations often position themselves as ‘civilization-states’ at odds with Western culture and avowed enemies what of what they view as American imperialism. Yet the document reserves its sharpest language for European societies that, in its view, have abandoned the cultural and religious foundations of the West. Why, then, should the Trump Administration attack allies in explicitly civilizational language while avoiding it with rival powers? The answer is that the Trump administration sees the main threat to Western civilisation as internal rather than external. In their view, the West is being weakened by its own governments and its own cultural choices. Europe therefore becomes the object of correction. The United States, as they understand it, must pressure Europe to return to the values that once defined Western civilisation rather than treat Europe as an equal partner in managing global competition.
The National Security Strategy places the United States at the centre of Western civilisation. In this narrative America becomes the core state responsible for restoring the cultural confidence that Europe has supposedly lost. Trump and Vance describe themselves as defending the West, however what is immediately obvious in the document is that the object of defence is not the geopolitical order that linked the United States and Europe throughout the Cold War. Rather, it is a set of cultural and religious markers that they believe Europe has abandoned. Civilisational rhetoric therefore becomes a tool for a nationalist project. The document justifies pressure on European governments, portrays right-wing populist parties as cultural allies, and reframes transatlantic relations as a struggle over the meaning of the West rather than as a partnership between democratic states.
While we should not overstate its importance, it is significant that an American strategic document now aligns the US more closely with Europe’s populist right than with many of Europe’s elected governments. Indeed, the Trump Administration appears to divide Europe in two. One Europe consists of liberal governments, EU institutions and political leaders committed to secular cosmopolitanism. The other Europe is defined by Christianity, firm borders, and inherited Western values and is represented above all by Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, Giorgia Meloni’s Italy, and Poland’s PiS opposition, right-wing populists who share the Trump Administration’s concerns over Europe’s civilisational decline. In their National Security Strategy, the Trump Administration presents the former as pushing Europe toward collapse and the latter as Western civilisation’s last remaining defenders.
Although the Trump Administration positions itself and America as the arbiter of authentic Western values, the National Security Strategy contains an unresolved tension insofar as many of the social and cultural trends it critiques in Europe also exist within the United States. The United States is itself experiencing demographic change, declining Christian affiliation, and widening cultural diversity, which complicates claims that Europe alone is departing from the Western tradition. This raises a definitional problem because if the West is understood in civic terms Europe and America remain Western despite cultural change, but if it is defined by racial or religious identity, then the pressures described in the National Security Strategy are shared on both sides of the Atlantic. Moreover, several of the identity debates the administration portrays as corrosive in Europe originated in American academic and activist contexts, suggesting that the cultural dynamics it attributes to Europe are partly American in origin. This is why the Macron government in France ‘wages war’ on ‘wokeness,’ something they perceive to be a form of unwanted American cultural imperialism spreading throughout French institutions.
The National Security Strategy therefore confronts Europe with a strategic and conceptual dilemma. Should Europe define Western culture on its own terms, and can it articulate a political and cultural identity that differs from the one now promoted by Washington? European governments speak of strategic autonomy, but their nations remain dependent on American security guarantees, particularly in defence and intelligence. European publics remain divided on migration and identity, which complicates any attempt to articulate a coherent cultural and political narrative. Furthermore, EU institutions prefer to define Europe as a legal and political project grounded in universal rights rather than as a civilisation with a particular religious or ethnic foundation. This makes it difficult for Europe to respond to the NSS, which casts it as a civilisation in decay and implies that its renewal requires a return to Christian cultural markers.
This tension has led some analysts, such as Aris Roussinos, to argue that Europe must either consolidate around its own values or accept a subordinate position in a Western order increasingly defined in Washington. Emmanuel Macron has attempted to present Europe as a civilisational actor capable of independent strategic judgement, yet it remains unclear whether this project can succeed given institutional fragmentation and the absence of a shared European cultural story. The National Security Strategy highlights that uncomplicated civilisational unity with the United States is no longer plausible. Such unity would require Europe to adopt a civilisational narrative aligned with American right-wing populist thought, something most European governments are unwilling to do.
The future of transatlantic relations may depend on the outcome of the next American Presidential election. A J.D. Vance victory would almost certainly deepen civilisational language in US strategy, increase pressure on the EU project and expand American support for right-wing populist parties in Europe. Europe shows little capacity to respond to this approach because it remains structurally dependent on American security and politically divided on issues of identity. Continued subordination would leave European governments reacting to American preferences rather than shaping their own strategic environment.
A Democratic victory would return the United States to its traditional support for the European Union. Civilisational rhetoric would recede, and Washington would again treat Europe as a partner in a rules-based and liberal international order. Yet this scenario also carries risks for Europe. A return to the status quo would still leave Europe reliant on American power and vulnerable to future political shifts in Washington. In the long term, Europe may need to assert greater strategic and political autonomy if it wishes to avoid oscillating between two competing American visions of the West.
In her interview with ECPS, Professor Susan Stokes explains how rising inequality and polarization create fertile ground for democratic backsliding. “There’s a kind of direct, almost organic effect of income inequality on polarization,” she notes, adding that the United States is “a very unequal country—and the oldest democracy—yet being an old democracy does not protect us from backsliding.” Despite these vulnerabilities, Professor Stokes rejects fatalism. Civil society mobilization and the courts, she emphasizes, have been “major blocks in the way of autocratization under the second Trump administration.” Ultimately, she remains cautiously optimistic: “There are lots of reasons to be hopeful that democracy will survive and can be rebuilt in a more robust way.”
In this wide-ranging interview, Professor Susan Stokes—Tiffany and Margaret Blake Distinguished Service Professor and Director of the Chicago Center on Democracy at the University of Chicago—offers an empirically grounded and conceptually rigorous analysis of democratic erosion in the United States and beyond. Speaking with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), she underscores the structural forces propelling contemporary backsliding, most notably rising inequality and partisan polarization. As she succinctly puts it, “there’s a kind of direct, almost organic effect of income inequality on polarization. Then backsliding leaders… benefit from operating in a polarized polity. Therefore, once in office, they do what they can to exacerbate partisan conflict.”
A core insight from her recent work is that inequality—rather than classic institutional safeguards—best predicts democratic decline. Drawing on extensive comparative research, Professor Stokes highlights that “being an older democracy offers no more protection against backsliding than being a younger democracy.” The United States, therefore, faces a distinct vulnerability: “We are a very unequal country, and we are the oldest democracy. Being very unequal raises our chances of experiencing backsliding, and being an old democracy does not protect us from it.” These findings challenge long-standing institutionalist theories that assumed democratic age alone could inoculate systems from erosion.
At the same time, Professor Stokes emphasizes that democratic decline is never uncontested and rarely linear. Civil society resistance—particularly through mass mobilization—remains a crucial barrier to autocratization. Reflecting on recent US cases, she notes that “protests, as well as the courts, have been a major block in the way of autocratization under the second Trump administration.” Even when repression intensifies, the protest–voting linkage proves resilient, reinforcing democratic engagement rather than severing it.
Yet Professor Stokes ultimately insists that the current moment, while perilous, is not predetermined. She resists fatalist narratives that portray autocratization as inevitable or unstoppable. Instead, she stresses the multiplicity of democratic resources that persist even under considerable strain: electoral accountability, civil society activism, independent media, and crucially, the lower federal courts. As she concludes, “there are lots of reasons to be hopeful that democracy will survive and can be rebuilt in a more robust way.”
This interview explores these themes in depth—from inequality and polarization to institutional attacks, populist rhetoric, and the prospects for democratic renewal. Professor Stokes’s analysis combines empirical precision with comparative breadth, offering a clear-eyed but ultimately hopeful assessment of democracy’s capacity for resilience and reconstruction.
In an interview with the ECPS, Professor Joseph Wright (Penn State University) warns that the most alarming development of “Trump 2.0” is the rapid personalization of the state’s coercive apparatus. “The most troubling aspect… is the personalization of the security forces. That is the single most damaging thing that can happen to a country,” he cautions. Professor Wright notes that ICE has evolved into “a fully militarized internal security organization,” now poised to become one of the world’s largest such forces—capable, he warns, of being deployed “to seize ballot boxes” or “shoot protesters.” While federalism still offers partial safeguards, Professor Wright argues the United States is witnessing early signs of institutional capture characteristic of personalist regimes worldwide.
In a wide-ranging and sobering interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Professor Joseph Wrightof Penn State University offers a stark assessment of the United States’ democratic trajectory under a second Trump administration. Drawing on his extensive comparative research on personalist rule, bureaucratic erosion, and autocratization, Professor Wright argues that the defining danger of “Trump 2.0” lies in the accelerating personalization of the state apparatus, and especially of the coercive arms of government. As he warns, “What appears to me to be the most troubling aspect of the personalization of the government [is] the personalization of the security forces. That is the single most damaging thing that can happen to a country.”
Professor Wright situates his analysis within a broader global pattern in which elected strongmen—figures such as Erdoğan, Orbán, and other personalist executives—transform political parties, bureaucracies, and security institutions into instruments of personal power. Applying these insights to the contemporary United States, he identifies three markers of personalist party consolidation: a leader’s control of financial resources, control over candidate nominations, and the elevation of loyalists who depend entirely on the leader for their political survival. “He controls the money… he controls nominations, and… he appoints loyalists,” Professor Wright explains, noting that together these dynamics render party elites “basically unwilling to stand up to him.”
While the United States remains far from the fully consolidated autocracies seen in Turkey or Hungary, Professor Wright warns that early signs of bureaucratic hollowing and selective purges have already emerged. The Department of Justice, he argues, is the clearest example, where loyalist appointments and the abandonment of legal enforcement norms have created “a green light to lots of actors to be able to break the law.” Particularly concerning is the rise of a militarized internal security force centered on ICE, which he describes as “a fully militarized internal security organization” now positioned to become one of the largest coercive bodies in the world. Such a force, he cautions, could be deployed “to seize ballot boxes, to shoot protesters… or deter people from showing up at the voting booths,” mirroring patterns observed in autocratizing regimes elsewhere.
Yet, Professor Wright also emphasizes the continued importance of federalism as a barrier to total centralization. Local law-enforcement autonomy and decentralized election administration remain crucial buffers. Still, he stresses that the danger is not hypothetical but unfolding: “We don’t know where it’s going to go… things have progressed rapidly.”
Taken together, Professor Wright’s analysis offers one of the clearest comparative warnings to date: the durability of American democracy now hinges not only on electoral outcomes, but on whether the country can resist the deepening personalization of its most powerful state institutions.
In an interview with the ECPS, Professor Joseph Wright (Penn State University) warns that the most alarming development of “Trump 2.0” is the rapid personalization of the state’s coercive apparatus. “The most troubling aspect… is the personalization of the security forces. That is the single most damaging thing that can happen to a country,” he cautions. Professor Wright notes that ICE has evolved into “a fully militarized internal security organization,” now poised to become one of the world’s largest such forces—capable, he warns, of being deployed “to seize ballot boxes” or “shoot protesters.” While federalism still offers partial safeguards, Professor Wright argues the United States is witnessing early signs of institutional capture characteristic of personalist regimes worldwide.
In a wide-ranging and sobering interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Professor Joseph Wrightof Penn State University offers a stark assessment of the United States’ democratic trajectory under a second Trump administration. Drawing on his extensive comparative research on personalist rule, bureaucratic erosion, and autocratization, Professor Wright argues that the defining danger of “Trump 2.0” lies in the accelerating personalization of the state apparatus, and especially of the coercive arms of government. As he warns, “What appears to me to be the most troubling aspect of the personalization of the government [is] the personalization of the security forces. That is the single most damaging thing that can happen to a country.”
Professor Wright situates his analysis within a broader global pattern in which elected strongmen—figures such as Erdoğan, Orbán, and other personalist executives—transform political parties, bureaucracies, and security institutions into instruments of personal power. Applying these insights to the contemporary United States, he identifies three markers of personalist party consolidation: a leader’s control of financial resources, control over candidate nominations, and the elevation of loyalists who depend entirely on the leader for their political survival. “He controls the money… he controls nominations, and… he appoints loyalists,” Professor Wright explains, noting that together these dynamics render party elites “basically unwilling to stand up to him.”
While the United States remains far from the fully consolidated autocracies seen in Turkey or Hungary, Professor Wright warns that early signs of bureaucratic hollowing and selective purges have already emerged. The Department of Justice, he argues, is the clearest example, where loyalist appointments and the abandonment of legal enforcement norms have created “a green light to lots of actors to be able to break the law.” Particularly concerning is the rise of a militarized internal security force centered on ICE, which he describes as “a fully militarized internal security organization” now positioned to become one of the largest coercive bodies in the world. Such a force, he cautions, could be deployed “to seize ballot boxes, to shoot protesters… or deter people from showing up at the voting booths,” mirroring patterns observed in autocratizing regimes elsewhere.
Yet, Professor Wright also emphasizes the continued importance of federalism as a barrier to total centralization. Local law-enforcement autonomy and decentralized election administration remain crucial buffers. Still, he stresses that the danger is not hypothetical but unfolding: “We don’t know where it’s going to go… things have progressed rapidly.”
Taken together, Professor Wright’s analysis offers one of the clearest comparative warnings to date: the durability of American democracy now hinges not only on electoral outcomes, but on whether the country can resist the deepening personalization of its most powerful state institutions.
Joseph Wright is a Professor of Political Science at Penn State University and serves also as the co-Director of the Global and International Studies (GLIS) program.
Here is the edited transcript of our interview with Professor Joseph Wright, slightly revised for clarity and flow.
The GOP’s Transformation: Money, Nominations, and Loyalists
Professor Joseph Wright, thank you very much for joining our interview series. Let me start right away with the first question: Your book titled“The Origins of Elected Strongmen: How Personalist Parties Destroy Democracy from Within” shows that personalist parties centralize nominations and sideline experienced elites. In the wake of the 2024–25 US political cycle, what indicators most clearly demonstrate that the GOP has consolidated into a personalist party rather than a traditional programmatic organization?
Professor Joseph Wright: That’s a great question. There are three indicators of personalist parties that we can observe across many different cases, and that vary between parties. When we apply those indicators to the current Republican Party, it becomes easier to see how they pop out and show that the party is increasingly personalist.
The first indicator is simply that Trump and his family appear to control the party’s funding apparatus. For example, during the 2024 campaign, his daughter-in-law controlled the Republican National Committee, which basically runs and distributes money to candidates in legislative elections. The current head of that same group is a close ally of Trump who owes his political career to him—a politician who lost multiple elections in Florida before Trump boosted him to a victory a couple of years ago.
That funding organization, the main one in the party, is actually small peanuts compared to the war chest Trump himself has gathered in MAGA Inc. It’s his personal election funding mechanism, which currently has over $200 million in it, even though he is constitutionally barred from running for president again. No president has ever had this after their second term: a personal vehicle for funding the political party they lead after their last presidential election, and certainly nothing of this scale.
So, he controls the money, and that gives him the power within the party to pick candidates to run under the Republican label. That’s a second key feature of the party that stands out as highly personalist right now. Trump has the power to decide who runs in primary elections in his party, and he often picks the primary winner ahead of time. That is, he controls candidate selection within the party. That’s very different from what the Republican Party—and US parties in general—have historically been like.
A good illustration of this nomination power is that legislators and elites in the party don’t want to stand up to Trump because they fear he may finance a candidate to run against them in a primary. So, they often back his policies even when they don’t like him. A good example is when one legislator did stand up to Trump—during the Epstein files vote in the US legislature. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Trump backer and prominent elite in the Republican Party, stood up to him. When she did, others followed, which would normally be a sign that this isn’t a very personalist party. But after successfully pressuring him—Trump backed down—she immediately announced that she was quitting the party because she didn’t want to fight Trump next year in a primary to retain her seat. So that’s the second thing: he controls nominations, and through that control, he influences the behavior of legislators.
The last characteristic is that most of the senior elected elites in the party, and nearly all appointed elites in the executive branch, are loyalists. These are people who would have no political power without Trump. They are not individuals who worked their way up through the party by winning local, then national elections, and then being selected for higher office once they had demonstrated political strength. Rather, these are people who perpetually lose elections, and he picks such candidates because they are more dependent on him for their power, making them highly motivated to do his bidding.
So it’s these three factors—Trump’s control over funding, his control over nominations, and his appointment of loyalists—that make elites in the party basically unwilling to stand up to him.
We can look at a couple of elites who have stood up to him, at least on the margins. John Thune, a senior party leader in the Senate, and John Roberts, the head of the Supreme Court, both first won office well before Trump was on the scene. They gained political power without him and will probably still have it after he is gone. That gives them very different incentives to stand up to Trump.
Whereas if your political career is completely dependent on Trump, then you’re always going to do what he wants. And so, looking at these three features of personalist parties that we see around the globe, I see them increasingly present in the United States within the Republican Party.
Why 2025’s State Races Don’t Predict National Trends
Zohran Mamdani at the Dominican Heritage Parade on 6th Ave in Manhattan, New York City, August 10, 2025. Photo: Aleksandr Dyskin.
State-level election results in 2025—particularly in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York—show mixed reactions to Trumpist politics. Do these outcomes represent meaningful resistance to personalization, or are they short-lived fluctuations within an increasingly captured party system?
Professor Joseph Wright: These elections are off-cycle, and where they take place—and certainly when they take place—means they’re not very informative in the US electoral context for understanding how national-level elections will transpire.We look at places like New York City, which is completely unrepresentative of the rest of the United States, and Northern Virginia. Northern Virginia is a place where the local economy has taken a huge hit from the government shutdown and from Trump’s efforts to fire tens of thousands of government workers.
A lot of those people live in Northern Virginia, and so the local economy has really been hurt by Trump’s policies. These two places, Northern Virginia and New York City, are just not good places to look for broader national political trends. I would take these as important victories for the Democratic Party, but nonetheless not very informative about what’s going to happen in the next congressional elections.
The Growing Personalization of America’s Security Forces
Your work with Erica Frantz and Kendall-Taylor suggests personalism erodes bureaucratic impartiality. Which US administrative arenas—civil service, regulatory agencies, or security services—appear most resilient, and which show signs of politicization consistent with personalist capture?
Professor Joseph Wright: That’s a good question. I wish I had good data on it. That’d be a great data collection project, in real time, using the US case.The bureaucratic civil service—obviously Trump has largely gutted parts of that. But parts of it are still going, and parts of it are still providing public services to American citizens throughout the country. Certainly the Justice Department is the one Trump has the most control over, insofar as he has put loyalists in charge, sometimes without following the rules. Judges have had to basically throw out some of his appointees. His appointees are probably breaking the law, and so there you see a clear sign of personalization.
It’s harder to see it in the security sector, and the reason for that is we just don’t have very good information, and there are no mechanisms for people in the military—aside from resigning. There are no mechanisms for them to register their dissent to these moves. People who work in the civil service oftentimes have unions, and those unions can sue the government. Soldiers don’t have a union, and they don’t sue the government when the government asks them to do illegal things or purge them. So, the only recourse people in the security sector have is basically to quit, and we have seen some of that.
What appears to me to be the most troubling aspect of the personalization of the government is the personalization of the security forces. That is the single most damaging thing that can happen to a country, because it creates a basically partial group that is loyal to certain segments of the population, and that is the main armed force.In the United States, this is happening most clearly with the internal militia that Trump is forming, essentially out of the border guard unit. Immigration enforcement and the Customs Enforcement Agency—what in the United States is called ICE—used to be housed in a department that managed land. But then in 2001, after the al-Qaeda attacks on the United States, the Republican Party formed an entirely new security branch within the United States called Homeland Security. Then they put border guards and immigration enforcement under that larger security branch.
This shift in the structure of the security apparatus came in the same decades that police enforcement in the United States became militarized. They began accepting a lot of used military equipment. So, police officers in the United States oftentimes look like what soldiers in other countries look like, and that’s certainly true of ICE. ICE has become a fully militarized internal security organization that Trump has deployed in Democratic strongholds to hunt unarmed residents of the US and to lock them in prison camps. Perhaps as troubling as what has happened to this point is actually what will happen in the future, as this militia is now going to receive hundreds of millions of dollars in funding.
This is a militia that appears to be breaking the law, attacking basic civil liberties such as the right to movement, the right to protest, the right to private property. They’re destroying people’s private property without compensation. They’re detaining people, they’re breaching people’s religious freedom, people can’t go to places of worship, they’ve attacked religious leaders—openly attacked them. So, they’re destroying individual liberties in the United States, and they’re about to become the 15th largest security organization in the world. The amount of funding that Congress has appropriated for this militia is the 15th or 16th largest military in the world—roughly the same size as the military of Turkey or Canada. And that’s not the US military; that’s this internal security organization called ICE that appears to be breaking the law on behalf of Trump. So, that’s the thing that’s most concerning to me about the personalization of the government and the civil service—actually this internal security organization.
And it has the potential to really disrupt free and fair elections in the United States if Trump decides to deploy that security service to seize ballot boxes, to shoot protesters who protest against electoral abuse, or basically to deter people from showing up at the voting booths. We see that in lots of countries, a lot of dictatorships. We see internal security services deployed precisely at times when they can be disruptive to elections to keep the ruling party in power.
Border Patrol agents monitor an anti-ICE protest in downtown Los Angeles, June 8, 2025. Demonstrators rallied against expanded ICE operations and in support of immigrant rights. Photo: Dreamstime.
Can Federalism Still Contain Trumpist Centralization?
Federalism has been viewed as a structural buffer against democratic erosion. Based on current GOP centralization, do you see subnational institutions serving as genuine counterweights, or are personalist dynamics penetrating state-level politics as well?
Professor Joseph Wright: I think both are happening, actually. And federalism, in a large country like the United States, has worked quite well to restrain excesses of executive power. That’s what it was designed to do, and historically it’s done a pretty good job of that, even if there are downsides to it—like the dictatorship that ruled the US South for about a century during the Jim Crow period. But it is, today, working as a check on the ruling party’s power to repress its citizens and undermine basic civil liberties. So, for example, the main internal security forces up to this point in the United States have actually been local police forces, and the United States does not have a national police force or a set of interior troops outside of border enforcement, unlike most other countries. This means that internal security is mostly provided by local police units. They are controlled by subnational governments.
What that means is that the most proximate armed security service in opposition strongholds—no matter what party holds power in the United States—is controlled by the people in that subnational unit. For example, in Chicago, a large city in the United States, the Democrats control that. It’s an opposition stronghold that has resisted Trump’s attempts to undermine civil liberties in the United States. The local police there are controlled by the local Democratic politicians. So they don’t work for Trump; they work for those local politicians, which means that they have mostly not followed Trump’s orders to do his bidding and work alongside Trump’s militia. So, that’s a good thing. And that’s an example of how federalism works in practice as a check on the ruling party’s power. In fact, one of the reasons why the Trump administration has failed to detain so many US residents en masse—he wants to detain millions of people, and he hasn’t come close to that—is precisely because he doesn’t have control over local security forces.
The second way in which federalism works well in the United States is actually election administration. This is a local event in the US, where local elected officials administer elections. There’s no national election board that administers and counts votes. It’s done as a local affair; they report it up the food chain. It happens at the county level, and the county goes up to the state level. Again, in opposition areas, those election counts are controlled by people in the opposition party. So whether the Democrats are president or the Republicans are president, there are Republicans and Democrats all over the country who are counting votes, and it’s not simply an election administration group that’s appointed by the ruling party. So, this is a really good thing.
The downside right now—the place where the Republican Party is interfering in local politics—is that local elections themselves have increasingly been based on national issues. So, many people now vote in local elections based on how much they like or dislike Trump. That’s a big factor, when the local elections really have nothing to do with Trump himself. If Trump increasingly controls local politicians because he controls the party, this is going to prevent constitutional Republicans—people in the ruling party, local politicians in the ruling party who still believe in the rule of law and the protection of civil liberties—from having a voice. They’re going to have less voice within the party if Trump is able to control nominations at a very local level.
How Backsliding Fuels America’s Polarization Loop
Your recent research argues that democratic backsliding itself generates polarization rather than simply resulting from it. How does this insight help explain the entrenchment of Trumpist support even amid institutional damage and declining democratic norms?
Professor Joseph Wright: It is important, in answering this question, to restate what political scientists have long understood. Voters tend to interpret basic economic facts and broader economic realities through a partisan lens. This occurs because citizens rely heavily on cues from partisan elites to evaluate whether the economy is performing well or poorly. We observe this consistently: Democratic voters often shift from a positive assessment of the economy when a Democrat holds the presidency to a negative one when a Republican wins, and Republican voters exhibit the same pattern in reverse.
In other words, most voters perceive economic conditions in ways shaped by their partisan identities and the interpretive cues they receive from party leaders. Given this dynamic, there is little reason to expect that voters would suddenly abandon these partisan cues when assessing basic political facts—particularly when judging whether an action taken by the leader of their own party constitutes a violation of democratic norms or practices.
So, our take on this, building on theories of motivated reasoning, is that when partisan voters see their own party’s leader doing something that is ostensibly and objectively bad for democracy, they don’t necessarily justify it by saying it’s not a violation of democracy. They interpret it as a milder violation, but they continue to justify their support for their own party by hating the other party more. This increased antipathy toward the other party, when their own party is doing harmful things to democracy, is the individual-level mechanism by which attempts to undermine democracy—actions of executive power that are unconstitutional, for example—can breed further polarization.
So, every time Trump does something to undermine democracy, it makes Democrats mad, and it doesn’t necessarily make Republicans happy, but it does make Republicans hate Democrats more. And so, for Trump, he’s often doing something and then justifying it by basically saying, “well, the Democrats are even worse, and we have to do this to get at the Democrats.” It’s this kind of messaging that transforms what he’s doing into not necessarily a good thing, but something people will tolerate precisely because now they have to hate the other team more. That’s what breeds polarization.
Trump’s Digital Machine: Power Without a Party
In this photo illustration, a smartphone screen displays an image of U.S. President Donald Trump’s Truth Social app on July 8, 2024, in Washington, D.C., United States. Photo: Charles McClintock Wilson.
You argue that leaders today do not need traditional party organizations to win—they can build personalist electoral vehicles using social media. Which US developments most clearly illustrate this shift, and what regulatory approaches could protect democratic competition without empowering state censorship over online mobilization?
Professor Joseph Wright: Obviously, Trump can get his own message out because he runs his own social media platform. It’s not the biggest social media platform, but it’s a big one. One of his biggest political allies does run the biggest media platform, and so Twitter—what is now called X—certainly can censor on his behalf and use its algorithms to promote certain views over others.
Of course, Trump was actually brilliant at this. He used Twitter masterfully in 2016, not just to get his own message out but to win free and pretty much nonstop coverage from the mainstream media. Most candidates in US elections would have to buy time in the media and work to earn coverage, but he was able to circumvent that by talking on Twitter and saying outrageous things, and then every newspaper journalist in the country wanted to cover it. So, you can just bypass that infrastructure. Actually, we saw that with the newly elected mayor of New York City, who used a somewhat similar strategy. He basically got his start not because he had a lot of money, not because he had the backing of the political establishment in his party, not because senior elites in his party wanted him there, but because he was effective at using TikTok and knew how to craft a low-resource message—you didn’t need a lot of resources to do it.
These are good examples of how you do not necessarily need a lot of resources to run an effective campaign and ultimately do not need the backing of a strong political party to do that. Trump continues to rule in that way. There are surrogates on social media, in the manosphere, on TikTok, and these guys come cheap. They don’t get their money from Trump. They get paid by the platforms so long as they get eyeballs. All Trump has to do is give them an occasional nod to keep them working for him and on his behalf to carry out his message, and his message gets amplified—from whatever he says on his own platforms to the mainstream media and to all these surrogates on other platforms.
I think social media has a big impact on that. Individuals’ controlling either media platforms or media companies is certainly not new. An early personalist strongman leader who was elected multiple times was Berlusconi in Italy. He owned his own media company before entering politics. So, being effective on social media to circumvent the need for resources, or having your own media company—or the combination of both, in Trump’s case—is really quite helpful.
What can be done about it? I wish I had a silver-bullet answer. I’ll throw some stuff out there. I’m not going to say these solutions would work, but they are intuitions I’ve had, mostly based on ideas from others. I certainly don’t think state censorship of public discourse is the way to go. Laws banning disinformation, for example, give a big advantage to governments—and they do in countries where governments use them—and make it very difficult for citizens to express or mobilize dissent.
Instead, I’d argue that the state could give more property-rights protections to citizens’ data. So, you’d give individuals and voters the right to their own data and ultimately force media companies, including social media companies, to pay individuals for that data. A company—rather than retaining the rights to data every time I use a platform like Gmail or any social media service—would have to pay me for that data. It may mean I’d have to pay nominal fees to use some services, just like I pay for a subscription to a streaming platform. But those companies would not be able to collect data on me unless they paid for it. That’s the first thing—reconfiguring the property-rights regime throughout the Western world to give property rights to individuals that are now retained, without meaningful legal constraint, by media companies. The lifeblood is the data, and if you give that right to individuals, companies won’t have so much economic power, because they wouldn’t own that data unless they paid for it.
The second intuition, based on others’ ideas, is enforcing competition laws. We know large corporations in the social media and data sphere are able to gobble up lots of sources of data and merge to become information oligopolies—what we now call media companies. So, enforcing competition—assigning individuals property rights to their data and applying basic free-market principles that we’ve drifted away from in the digital world.
MAGA Inc. and the Rise of Personalist Party Finance
Personalist parties rely on personalized funding networks rather than institutionalized party finance. To what extent has Trump succeeded in subordinating Republican fundraising channels to his personal control, and how significant is this shift for long-term democratic resilience?
Professor Joseph Wright: He’s been pretty successful, and I alluded to that when answering an earlier question. He has this organization—I think it’s called MAGA Inc.—a large, $200 million operation that’s essentially a pot of money he’s waiting to deploy in elections to fund the next round of Republican campaigns. My guess is that something like that will continue going forward, and what it will do is give Trump control over the party even if he leaves the presidency in 2028. He and his family may not relinquish control over that funding mechanism.
Of course, they’re amassing a ton of private wealth now through corruption, and they may deploy that wealth in future elections as well, in an effort to influence who controls the Republican Party. That’s not any different from what happens in other countries, where oligarchs, political tycoons, and economic tycoons dominate politicians by controlling financial resources.
This would mark a significant shift from how parties in the United States have traditionally been funded. Historically, most of that influence has come through large corporations. The government gives corporations limited liability, and the Supreme Court has granted them free speech rights that the Constitution assigns to individuals. The Republican Supreme Court extended those rights to limited liability companies that can make a profit and are shielded from certain legal liabilities, giving them a substantial government-conferred benefit.
So, while the last few decades of American politics have been dominated by large corporate donors, we may now see the Trump family exerting substantial control over political financing. That would be a departure for the United States and would make the system resemble places like Ukraine before the invasion, Indonesia, Malaysia, or the Philippines, where oligarchs and political families dominate politics through their financial power.
Where Trumpist Personalization Threatens US Institutions Most
Frontal view of the U.S. Supreme Court Building in Washington, D.C., on February 10, 2024. Photo: Gualberto Becerra P.
Your recent article shows personalist parties undermine impartial state administration but not necessarily fiscal capacity or territorial control. Which elements of the US state—central bank, federal agencies, law-enforcement structures—face the greatest vulnerability to personalized politicization under the Trumpist GOP?
Professor Joseph Wright: The two that I see—he’s making attempts to do this all over the place, and some of the agencies are able to fight back better than others. As I mentioned earlier, the Justice Department and its lawyers have been a major target. Trump has largely purged people who followed the rule of law and appointed loyalists to those positions, who don’t seem particularly interested in upholding the rule of law anymore. We see that prominently; that’s what a lot of the news is about. And while some of it looks like Trump trying to get revenge, it could also serve the longer-term goal of using the Justice Department to interfere in elections, to ensure the opposition party can never win again—essentially preventing elections from being free and fair.
Another very problematic aspect is that when the Justice Department stops enforcing the rule of law, it effectively gives a green light to many actors to break the law. We’re seeing this in at least two ways right now. Armed members of American security forces—whether in the military or the ICE militia—are breaking the law, and there seems to be complete impunity for that, aside from a few isolated cases. The government is essentially not enforcing its own laws when groups within the government break them on behalf of the president.
Second, bribery and corruption laws are no longer being enforced, which gives wealthy people a powerful incentive to engage in corruption, accumulate economic power, and rig property rights in their favor. It also encourages many wealthy individuals to avoid or cheat on their taxes because Trump has signaled he won’t enforce tax law for rich people. That’s problematic for revenue. It’s part of the long-term Republican strategy to shift the US revenue base from income taxes to consumption taxes. That’s what the tariffs are about—funding the government by taxing consumption, which is regressive, and effectively eliminating the progressive income tax, even if they can’t change the law, by simply not enforcing it. We see that as well.
As for the central bank, there has been more resistance there, partly because undermining the Federal Reserve’s independence has huge ramifications for capital owners. When central bank independence erodes, capitalists get very nervous, since it makes long-term investments much more precarious. So, there has been pushback within the broader Republican coalition, especially from economic elites—capital owners—pressuring Trump not to completely destroy the Federal Reserve’s independence.
Another institution that has retained some autonomy and has not been extensively purged is the judiciary, particularly the federal judiciary. It’s decentralized—there’s a degree of decentralization in the US system—but even at the federal level there hasn’t been a total purge yet. Trump has faced real resistance there, even—and this is important—from judges who are elites within his own party. That’s extremely important.
America vs. Turkey and Hungary: How Far Has Personalization Gone?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey on August 30, 2014. Photo: Mustafa Kirazlı.
In your cross-national work, leaders like Erdogan and Orbán used personalization to degrade bureaucratic professionalism. Does the United States exhibit early signs of bureaucratic hollowing resembling these cases, or are US institutions still fundamentally differentiated?
Professor Joseph Wright: I don’t think we’re anywhere near what’s going on in Turkey or Hungary, for sure. I mean, within a matter of months in 2016, Erdogan had purged something like 100,000 civil servants. That’s a lot in a country that size. The United States doesn’t come close to purging that many.
One issue is simply hollowing out the government so that it stops doing basic things—like enforcing the law or providing public goods. The other is transforming the bureaucracy into a personal vehicle that can exert power over citizens to keep the ruling party in power indefinitely.
That’s essentially state capture—where the merger of the state and the ruling party becomes complete, and the state’s primary function is to preserve the ruling party in power. That’s certainly what we see in a place like China.
We don’t know where this is going to go. We’re not even 12 months into the Trump administration. Things have progressed rapidly, but they’re nowhere near the scale we’ve seen elsewhere. Erdogan was in power for well over a decade before he carried out his major purge, and Orbán was also in power for quite some time before he fully transformed the civil bureaucracy.
The other possibility is not just hollowing out, but turning the bureaucracy into a vehicle to preserve the ruling party’s power.
In her interview with ECPS, Professor Susan Stokes explains how rising inequality and polarization create fertile ground for democratic backsliding. “There’s a kind of direct, almost organic effect of income inequality on polarization,” she notes, adding that the United States is “a very unequal country—and the oldest democracy—yet being an old democracy does not protect us from backsliding.” Despite these vulnerabilities, Professor Stokes rejects fatalism. Civil society mobilization and the courts, she emphasizes, have been “major blocks in the way of autocratization under the second Trump administration.” Ultimately, she remains cautiously optimistic: “There are lots of reasons to be hopeful that democracy will survive and can be rebuilt in a more robust way.”
In this wide-ranging interview, Professor Susan Stokes—Tiffany and Margaret Blake Distinguished Service Professor and Director of the Chicago Center on Democracy at the University of Chicago—offers an empirically grounded and conceptually rigorous analysis of democratic erosion in the United States and beyond. Speaking with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), she underscores the structural forces propelling contemporary backsliding, most notably rising inequality and partisan polarization. As she succinctly puts it, “there’s a kind of direct, almost organic effect of income inequality on polarization. Then backsliding leaders… benefit from operating in a polarized polity. Therefore, once in office, they do what they can to exacerbate partisan conflict.”
A core insight from her recent work is that inequality—rather than classic institutional safeguards—best predicts democratic decline. Drawing on extensive comparative research, Professor Stokes highlights that “being an older democracy offers no more protection against backsliding than being a younger democracy.” The United States, therefore, faces a distinct vulnerability: “We are a very unequal country, and we are the oldest democracy. Being very unequal raises our chances of experiencing backsliding, and being an old democracy does not protect us from it.” These findings challenge long-standing institutionalist theories that assumed democratic age alone could inoculate systems from erosion.
At the same time, Professor Stokes emphasizes that democratic decline is never uncontested and rarely linear. Civil society resistance—particularly through mass mobilization—remains a crucial barrier to autocratization. Reflecting on recent US cases, she notes that “protests, as well as the courts, have been a major block in the way of autocratization under the second Trump administration.” Even when repression intensifies, the protest–voting linkage proves resilient, reinforcing democratic engagement rather than severing it.
Yet Professor Stokes ultimately insists that the current moment, while perilous, is not predetermined. She resists fatalist narratives that portray autocratization as inevitable or unstoppable. Instead, she stresses the multiplicity of democratic resources that persist even under considerable strain: electoral accountability, civil society activism, independent media, and crucially, the lower federal courts. As she concludes, “there are lots of reasons to be hopeful that democracy will survive and can be rebuilt in a more robust way.”
This interview explores these themes in depth—from inequality and polarization to institutional attacks, populist rhetoric, and the prospects for democratic renewal. Professor Stokes’s analysis combines empirical precision with comparative breadth, offering a clear-eyed but ultimately hopeful assessment of democracy’s capacity for resilience and reconstruction.
Here is the edited transcript of our interview with Professor Susan Stokes, slightly revised for clarity and flow.
Inequality, Polarization, and the New Backsliding
St. Patrick’s Cathedral with pedestrians, pigeons and a homeless man outside in Manhattan, Fifth Avenue on September 11, 2023. Photo: Dreamstime.
Professor Susan Stokes, thanks very much for joining our interview series. Let me start right away with the first question: Your recent analyses suggest that Trump’s second-term agenda—including regressive fiscal policy, attacks on universities, and intensified politicization of state institutions—accelerates inequality and democratic erosion simultaneously. How do these US-specific dynamics compare to earlier episodes of backsliding you have studied in India, Hungary, or Turkey?
Professor Susan Stokes: It’s such a pleasure to be here. Thank you so much for the invitation. We don’t yet have systematic evidence about the impact of backsliders on inequality. The research I’ve done that is in my book, as well as in a co-authored article with Eli Rao that appeared in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, looks at the impact of inequality on the probability of a backsliding leader coming to power. But there is some evidence—some of it systematic, some of it more anecdotal—about the behavior of these kinds of leaders with regard to social spending, fiscal policy, and the like. I make a distinction between right-wing ethno-nationalist backsliding leaders and left populist ones, and the left populist ones do have incentives to decrease inequality, address inequality, and improve social spending and the material conditions of people at the bottom.
So, leaders like Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico were left populists who increased and made retirement benefits more generous, raised the minimum wage, and also undermined democratic institutions. There is evidence from European research—I’m thinking about a study by Russell Dalton and Carl Berning—that shows that far-right parties in Europe tend to take a position that is more pro–social spending than the traditional right. And in the US, I think the country is a bit exceptional in that we have a right-wing backsliding leader, a right-wing ethno-nationalist, who has stuck with fairly traditional conservative policies: lowering taxes on the wealthy and cutting social spending rather drastically. I think that has to do with a conflict in the Republican Party between a populist subgroup and a more traditional subgroup.
We think of Donald Trump as utterly dominating the Republican Party. In some respects, he does, but he hasn’t been fully successful—he hasn’t always; he’s ambivalent himself on this. In some ways, his preferences tend toward a small state, low regulation, and so forth. But he does respond to electoral incentives to try to improve social conditions, and some of the party doesn’t go along with that, so you see that conflict playing out. What it has added up to thus far is a leader who is rhetorically populist, but whose policies have been fairly straightforward, traditional anti-state, anti-regulation policies of the conservative party.
Why Autocrats Fear Independent Universities
In your writing on Trump’s assault on epistemic institutions, you argue that universities pose a threat to autocrats because of their independence. How does the targeted dismantling of academic autonomy reshape the informational environment through which citizens evaluate inequality, trustworthiness, and democratic legitimacy?
Professor Susan Stokes: That’s certainly the case—that it’s the independence of institutions of higher education, especially their capacity to challenge the factual basis of governments’ claims, that is part of what we do in producing independent information and knowledge. None of that is particularly welcomed by these kinds of governments. And it’s interesting: we think of the ideological conflict between these governments and universities, but in fact, whatever ideology the government embraces, they tend to have the same conflicts. So, you know, Erdogan attacks Boğaziçi University and says that it’s too secular and anti-national, Trump attacks American universities because they’re too woke, and López Obrador in Mexico attacks elite universities on the grounds that they are “too neoliberal and too conservative.” So, whatever the ideology, there seems to be something more structural going on.
What’s the effect? I would say that, again, we don’t have great systematic evidence, but it does seem that—especially in situations where a prominent university like the Central European University when it was in Budapest, or in Nicaragua, where higher education has been almost erased and replaced by very pro-regime forces—there is a real narrowing of the scope of information: solid information and counter-narratives that are available to people.
Students gather for graduation ceremonies on Commencement Day at Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, May 29, 2014. Photo: Dreamstime.
Big Money, Racial Politics, and America’s Autocratic Drift
You note that Trump is unusual among autocrat-leaning leaders in refusing to adopt redistributive or pro-poor policies. What explains this deviation from the global pattern—seen in AMLO, Modi, or Erdoğan—and what does it reveal about the class, racial, and ideological coalitions sustaining backsliding in the US?
Professor Susan Stokes: That’s a wonderful question, and I think there are two parts to the answer. One of them has to do with the rather extreme role of capital in democratic politics in the United States—small-d democratic politics. For more than a century we’ve had a great deal of involvement—whether it was the railroads once upon a time, or big oil, or today, Elon Musk—an extraordinary level of direct involvement by large corporations and very affluent individuals in our politics. Some of that has to do with the highly decentralized nature of American electoral politics. Elections are run at a very local level, and our equivalent of a national election administration body, the Federal Election Commission, is very weak. So, very decentralized elections create a lot of room for involvement and distortion by big money. And while this is an old pattern, it was made much worse by the 2010 Citizens United decision of the US Supreme Court, which made it very difficult to regulate campaign contributions—or limited our ability to regulate them. So, that’s part of the story which is that, partly through elections but also through other forms of influence, the ability to make substantial donations gives big capital a major impact and constrains what political parties and governments can do. Mostly that impact affects the Republican Party, but it has significant effects on the Democratic Party as well.
The other part of it, as your question suggested, is the long-standing racialization of politics in the United States, where racial conflict—some of it organic and some of it encouraged by interested parties—allows conservative forces to gain more support for an anti-state, anti-regulatory position. A lot of people think of the welfare state as equivalent to benefits for minorities, particularly for Black people. So, you get large numbers of people who don’t think of welfare and social spending as benefiting them but benefiting somebody else—our tax dollars going to these other people who are supposedly cutting in line, and so forth. Of course, none of that is based on reality, but that’s the discourse, and that’s one reason our politics look a bit different from the politics of other advanced democracies in this regard.
When Partisanship Makes Voters Excuse Autocracy
Your work links widening inequality to declining trust in the judiciary, Congress, and the press. To what extent does affective polarization mediate this link—transforming socioeconomic grievance into a willingness among partisans to condone norm violations and executive aggrandizement?
Professor Susan Stokes: It does have an effect, for sure. The argument in my book is that when societies are more income-polarized—that is, when there are bigger gaps between the wealthy and the rest, both in wealth and in income—that in itself feeds into polarization and partisan polarization. That’s not actually my own original research; other people have shown that to be true, and it probably has to do with the sense that the stakes are very high when one party or the other comes to power. So, there’s a kind of direct, almost organic effect of income inequality on polarization. Then backsliding leaders, autocratizing leaders, benefit from operating in a polarized polity. Therefore, once in office, they do what they can to exacerbate partisan conflict.
They say all kinds of terrible things about the other party. They demonize the other party. They try to marginalize parts of the country or cities controlled by the other party. The reason they benefit from operating in a polarized setting, as your question suggested, is that when people operate in a polarized, highly partisan, affectively polarized environment—when they think that if the other party comes to power, it’s the end of the world—they are more willing to look the other way at incursions into democratic practices and attacks on democratic institutions.
There is very good research in this regard. Milan Svolik at Yale has done truly groundbreaking work, as has Jennifer McCoy and her co-authors at Georgia State. So, this is well established. It’s theoretically quite intuitive, and it has been shown empirically that, other things being equal, the more somebody believes the sky is going to fall if the other party comes to power, the more willing they are to say to themselves: well, I’m not crazy about the fact that he’s always attacking the courts or the press, or that he seems to be politicizing the military, or what have you, but if that’s the price we have to pay for keeping the other terrible side out, then so be it.
Electoral College Inversions and the Fragility of Democratic Legitimacy
Man reading Le Figaro featuring Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in Paris on November 12, 2016 after Trump’s election win. Photo: Dreamstime.
How do repeated electoral inversions in the US Electoral College—combined with rising inequality—affect democratic consent and citizens’ tolerance for anti-democratic appeals, and what do your legitimacy experiments suggest about the durability of these effects?
Professor Susan Stokes: Thank you for that question. So, for people who are interested, I’m part of a group that founded an organization called Bright Line Watch, which we started as a small collaboration among several universities. All our publications and the original data from our surveys are available online. Anyone who wants to take a look or use the data is more than welcome to do so—just Bright Line Watch.
We did a study based on experiments examining the effect of inversions on legitimacy—the legitimacy of the winning candidate. Just to explain, inversions occur when who wins an election depends not only on how many votes they get but also on the geographic distribution of those votes. When votes are tallied in subnational districts, like states, and the geographic distribution of votes matters as much as their number, you can end up with an inversion in which the loser of the overall popular vote becomes the winner. The Electoral College in the United States has produced that outcome several times. It has also occurred in other countries—the UK, New Zealand, Canada—but in the US we saw it in 2000, when George Bush first won the presidency, and again in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote and Donald Trump won the Electoral College vote and became president.
That’s a side effect of systems in which the distribution of votes matters. The reason parties like the Democratic Party tend to lose out in these situations is that their voters are much more geographically concentrated. They tend to be in big cities and are not spread across the national territory to the same extent. What we found is that politicians who lose the popular vote but win the election—becoming the president or the prime minister—do take a hit in terms of their legitimacy. We looked at this in the US, and the effect is driven by Democrats. Republicans are less troubled by inversions; Democrats are more troubled. And that probably has to do with people’s intuitive or basic understanding that Democrats are more likely to suffer under this system because of their geographic distribution.
It’s a pretty powerful effect, even though it’s driven primarily by Democratic respondents. Interestingly, it isn’t much affected by the margin of victory. Any loser of the popular vote who gets into office—whether that person loses (hypothetically) by a large or small margin—takes a substantial hit in legitimacy. We see the inverse of that in the 2024 election. Unlike in 2016, when Trump won via the Electoral College but not the popular vote and was seen as much less legitimate, for a period there was a kind of aura around his second-term presidency because he had won the popular vote—and won not a landslide (he claims it was a landslide) but reasonably decisively. So, you see the opposite effect in that case.
How Populist ‘Trash Talk’ Weakens Democratic Defenses
Drawing on your research on Manichean populist rhetoric with Çınar and Uribe, how does the escalation of zero-sum, anti-institutional language in the US accelerate the shift from inequality-induced distrust to permissiveness toward democratic norm erosion?
Professor Susan Stokes: I would just add that Ipek Çınar and Andres Uribe are co-authors of that paper, which appeared in the journal Comparative Political Studies, and another co-author is Lautaro Cella—I don’t want to forget him. So, what we observe in that study… let me back up a little bit. Returning to the issue of polarization, a polarized population is good for would-be autocrats because their own followers will be more willing to support them when they violate democratic institutions, since they say to themselves, “God forbid that the other side come to power.” On the other hand, what politicians do to exacerbate that polarization is to say really terrible things about the opposition party, and my book has lots of piquant examples of that. You can see Jair Bolsonaro saying that the military should have gone ahead and killed 30,000 people when they were in power, of the opposition types. Donald Trump calls the Democrats the party of lawlessness, says they hate the country, want to destroy the country, want no borders, and so on and so forth.
That kind of rhetoric can be very effective if you put yourself in the position of a MAGA Republican voter. If they hear that message and believe it, they are going to be more firmly in support of their leader. But put yourself in the position of an opposition voter who hears that message, is offended by it, and doesn’t think it’s true—they might be more likely to turn out for elections and to encourage others on their side to turn out. So, there is a potential downside to a polarizing strategy for some leaders.
What I spend quite a bit of time on—and present quite a bit of evidence for—in my book is that another strategy backsliding leaders have at their disposal is to attack institutions and what I call “trash talk democracy.” That is, take institutions—say the courts or election administration bodies—and say, “hey folks, you shouldn’t worry about my gutting these institutions or weakening them; they’re really terrible institutions anyway. They are corrupt, full of corrupt people, ineffective, expensive,” and so on. That is a way of getting people to go along with, or at least not resist, an autocratizing project, even if at heart they really do support democracy.
So, it’s not actually an attack on democratic norms; it’s more an attack on institutions as falling short of democratic norms. What’s interesting in my book is that I show evidence that they do use this strategy, and they use it in ways that are quite effective in the sense that their followers—that is, opposition party followers—are actually somewhat won over by the negative things these leaders say about the institution. In our Mexican samples, respondents who supported opposition parties and did not support López Obrador’s party were, to some degree, influenced by the negative things he said about the courts or the election administration body. And at the very least, there was no backlash. They didn’t turn around and say, “hey, he’s saying these terrible things about these institutions, I’m going to rally in their defense.”
Inequality Fuels Modern Democratic Erosion
Your finding that high inequality significantly raises the probability that voters will elect would-be autocrats challenges institutionalist theories emphasizing democratic age and rule-of-law strength. How should existing regime stability theories be revised to incorporate distributive conflict as a core causal driver?
Professor Susan Stokes: I would say that some of the older literature was studying an older reality in which the military coup was the main source of instability for democracies. There has been a lot of theorizing—it’s been an obsession of comparative politics, and I’ve been part of this literature as well—aimed at explaining the causes of regime dynamics. Why do democratic governments fall apart and get replaced by autocratic ones? Why do autocratic governments fall apart and get replaced by democracies? That has been a very important theme in comparative politics and political economy for 60-70 years.
The older literature focused on a period when military coups were the primary threat to democracies. Studying democratic instability in that era was essentially equivalent to studying the probability of a military coup—a coup that would come to power, boot out a democratic regime, send its leaders into exile, imprison them, sometimes execute them, and close down the constitution, all at once. Now we are in a world in which, although military coups still happen, the greater numerical threat to democratic stability is democratic erosion or backsliding.
These are two quite different processes involving different actors. Military coups are carried out by military leaders who deploy force; democratic backsliding is carried out by civilian leaders—elected civilian leaders—and usually unfolds much more slowly. It is a gradual process. The objectives of these leaders are quite different from those of military officials who carry out coups. So, these are fundamentally different phenomena, different dependent variables, requiring different theories. We should not be surprised that factors important in predicting coups do not necessarily play as much of a role in predicting democratic backsliding.
Now, inequality actually has played a big role in theories of democratic breakdown and regime transitions in an era when instability was linked to military intervention. There were strong theoretical reasons put forth—Carles Boix, and my colleagues James Robinson and Daron Acemoglu, for example—emphasizing income inequality as an important factor in democratization and in support for military regimes. But the empirical evidence wasn’t very strong. There were theoretical reasons to think inequality mattered, but the empirical support was weak. Empirically, income per capita appeared to play a more important role in determining how likely a democracy was to be destabilized.
Now we’re in a different world. When we sat down to identify the predictors—structural, economic, and other kinds—that increase or decrease the probability of a country experiencing democratic erosion, we expected income inequality to play a role. We were also interested in income per capita because of its historical importance in earlier theories of democratic instability.
We were surprised to find inequality such a prominent factor. It is really robust and strong—by far the most powerful factor we could identify. We subjected our findings to all kinds of statistical models, controls, different ways of measuring inequality (wealth inequality, income inequality, different operationalizations), and we really couldn’t get rid of the inequality effect.
Let me say a word about the age of democracy, which you also mentioned. That, again, was a consistent and robust factor in the probability of a democracy falling—how long it had been a democracy without interruption. There was a nice paper from the early 1990s by Adam Przeworski and Fernando Limongi that showed that poverty, or income level, was an important factor in whether a country would experience a coup, and another important factor was how long it had been since the last coup. Like cancer: if you’ve had it, gone into remission, and stayed in remission for a certain number of years, your probability of recurrence is no higher than someone who’s never had it. They found that if a country was coup-free for six years, it was no more likely to have another coup than a country that had never had one. That’s an age-of-democracy kind of consolidation effect.
We did not find that with democratic backsliding. Being an older democracy offers no more protection against backsliding than being a younger democracy. And the twin facts—that income inequality is a major predictor, and that democratic age does not protect you—help resolve the puzzle of why the United States is experiencing democratic erosion. We are a very unequal country, and we are the oldest democracy. Being very unequal raises our chances of experiencing backsliding, and being an old democracy does not protect us from it.
US President Donald Trump at a rally for then-VP nominee J.D. Vance in Atlanta, GA, on August 3, 2024. Photo: Phil Mistry.
Many autocrat-leaning leaders strategically redistribute to shore up mass support, while Trump intensifies regressive inequality. How does this divergence shape the prospects for long-term authoritarian consolidation versus potential coalition fracture in the American case?
Professor Susan Stokes: There are a lot of people in this country scratching their heads over those questions. As I mentioned earlier, there’s a sort of conflict within the Republican Party between populists who would like to be spending more and doing more to address inequality, and the more traditional Republican conservatives who favor the smallest state possible. The famous quip of a Republican activist from the Reagan era was that they wanted to shrink the size of the state to the point where you could drown it in a bathtub. That wing of the Republican Party remains very strong.
So, populist leaders within the Republican Party include people like J.D. Vance, the Vice President, and Josh Hawley, an important senator from Missouri. They’re pushing for a more populist agenda in terms of economic populism. I mentioned before that Trump himself seems to be ambivalent but does respond to pressures. At the moment, Trump would like to reach some sort of deal on the Affordable Care Act, on Obamacare, that would avoid the steep increases in the cost of health care for many Americans, which is a big electoral liability—and Trump understands electoral liabilities. He’s not a deep thinker, but he does know that he can get himself in trouble in electoral terms. His approval ratings are really tanking, and his approval on economic performance is really tanking.
So, his instinct is to push for these more populist measures, but that hasn’t happened, and so this tension within the party does undermine the longer-term viability of the MAGA project. You see that conflict play out a bit more in the US for some of the reasons we talked about earlier than in other cases. Either there are left-wing populists who have every reason to try to address inequality, or there are right populists where, somehow, the barriers to that kind of more populist economic policymaking have been lower.
Delegitimization and Tear Gas Can’t Stop Democratic Mobilization
Your studies of protest show that protesters are often more likely to vote than non-protesters. In a backsliding democracy where protest is increasingly criminalized, how do autocrats’ repressive strategies attempt to sever this protest–voting linkage?
Professor Susan Stokes: It’s a wonderful question. I’m not sure that they’re trying to sever that linkage. I think that linkage is a natural social phenomenon. It’s harder to protest—it’s costlier, it takes more planning, more time, more commitment. You usually face more risks for protesting than for voting. So typically, people who are willing to pay the costs of protesting are quite willing to pay the costs of voting. That’s why 10 to 1 is a kind of rule of thumb.
So, I’m not sure they’re trying to sever that link, and I don’t think they could, but they definitely are trying to suppress and delegitimize both protesters and decrease turnout among opposition voters. The protest side has been very interesting, and I have to say, being here in Chicago, I’ve had a sort of front-row seat to the efforts at both delegitimizing protesters and repressing them—kind of old-fashioned, not quite Gezi Park levels, but heading in that direction.
We’ve had an enormous incursion of ICE and the Border Patrol—deportations, measures, efforts at mass deportation here in Chicago—and that sparked enormous protests and activism, initially among Hispanic communities, but it really spread more broadly. It became a major confrontation in which the government side used tear gas and sound bombs and all kinds of so-called less lethal tactics to suppress protesters, with many arrests and many accusations and attempted prosecutions that have not held up in court. And it really didn’t work.
I would say the protesters won and the government lost. They left town. Of course, they arrested a ton of people and deported a ton of people, but it’s well known that those they deported did not fall into the category of criminals and so forth that the Trump administration claimed. They were pretty much normal people, and it has been a real black eye for the administration. They’re now facing similar strategies in other cities, and there is a lot of communication among protest organizers and activists across these cities.
So, they’re trying to do that, but it’s complicated for them. And delegitimization is also a big part of it—claiming that protesters are Antifa, or that they just don’t matter. You know, 7 million people across the country protested—joined the No Kings demonstrations last month—and still the claim was, or I guess it was in October, that they tried to shrug it off. But I would say protests, as well as the courts, have been a major block in the way of autocratization under the second Trump administration.
Affordability, Inequality, and the Next Chapter of Democratic Survival
Supporters celebrate the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold Obamacare in Washington, DC on June 28, 2012. Photo: Richard Gunion.
And lastly, Professor Stokes, looking ahead, what empirical indicators—economic, institutional, or behavioral—would you consider most predictive of either continued backsliding or democratic recovery in the US and globally? And what time horizon do comparative cases suggest for policy interventions (e.g., social democracy, redistribution) to meaningfully rebuild trust?
Professor Susan Stokes: It’s a big and very important question, and so I’ll take the last part of it first. Our finding, again, is that income inequality is a big part of the background of democratic backsliding in individual countries, and it also helps explain the uptick at this particular moment in history. So, why is it that the early 21st century has been a period of backsliding? It has to do with accumulated increased levels of income inequality across the globe in the 20th century, exacerbated during the period of globalization.
So, addressing income inequality is going to be really important for pro-democracy forces in these countries. And I think that we here in the United States are sort of stumbling toward that understanding. There has been a lot of attention recently—the popular word of the day is affordability. What is affordability? Affordability doesn’t just mean nominal prices need to be stabilized or come down. It means that the cost of living, taking into account people’s incomes—incomes need to go up at the bottom and that makes things more affordable. Furthermore, in some markets, income inequality makes it tougher for people who live at the bottom.
Think about housing. There’s a housing crisis in the United States; there’s a housing crisis in many European countries. It means that there is not a sufficient supply of housing, rental or for purchase, that is accessible for people with low incomes. That’s partly because the profit margin for housing oriented toward high-income people is vastly greater, so resources tend toward the high-end market, and there’s no perfect market mechanism for increasing supply at the low end. So that means that, everything else being equal, you’re better off in terms of housing costs living in Sweden than in the United States. Apart from whatever programs there might be to make housing more affordable in Sweden—and I’m sure it’s not particularly affordable for many people—but if you were going to be dropped down on planet Earth into a democracy and had a choice between going to a more equal or a less equal one, you would choose the less unequal one because it’s just going to be more affordable. So, affordability is a term that also contains a message about income inequality.
Those things have to be addressed, and they have to be addressed quickly. One of the things that we learned in the United States in 2024 is that you have to pay attention to what political scientists call retrospective economic voting, which basically means people look at what’s going on with the economy and they vote—and they look at what’s going on with their pocketbooks and their family financial situation in the very short term, the last six months. And they will kick out governments that are overseeing what they view as bad economies, whether they’re good governments or bad governments. So, you still have to pay attention to good performance on those basic measures. So, long-term projects to deal with important problems like climate change, or even longer-term issues having to do with income inequality, have to be included alongside short-term attention to people’s basic economic situations.
Democracy Endures: How Societies Push Back Against Autocratization
I think the other part of your question has to do with how we are going to respond to the rise of authoritarianism, and what is going to need to be done. I’ve been talking about addressing income inequality as one of the things that must be done, but there are other things as well. In the United States, we’ve had a big debate about how much attention political parties—pro-democracy campaigns and political parties—should pay to the problem of democratic erosion as opposed to economic issues. What we’re learning now is that when things really go off the rails to a sufficient degree—when a government acts extremely autocratically—ordinary people start paying attention.
So, the situation here is that you have a government that acts as though we live in an autocracy, and you have a civil society and a population that still acts as though we live in a democracy. Our expectations are that we will have freedom of speech and assembly, and that we won’t have a society in which people can be picked up off the streets by masked men, taken away, and end up in a terrible prison in El Salvador. And that’s a message that’s getting through more and more to people who, when things were less acute—when we had less fully autocratic behavior by the government—didn’t pay as much attention to those things.
The last thing I’ll say on this is: autocratic governments like to give off the impression that either everybody supports what they’re doing or, even if a lot of people don’t support them, what they’re doing is inevitable, unstoppable, and that there’s nothing we can do about it. That’s really incorrect. We see in many countries that there are a lot of obstacles to autocratization. Sometimes autocratic governments have been voted out of office; sometimes they’ve been removed from office by their own political parties when they become a liability. Autocratic governments tend to be bad decision-making machines because autocrats favor loyalists over competent people, and so they get no feedback or bad feedback, and they make big mistakes.
Therefore, there are all kinds of reasons to continue to act as though we live in democracies, and to continue to hold governments to account any way that we can—through the ballot box, through protests, through the independent press. The courts in the United States below the level of the Supreme Court have been amazing. The federal courts have been amazing blocks on autocratic behavior. So, there are lots of reasons to be hopeful that democracy will survive and can be rebuilt in a more robust way.
Session 7 of the ECPS Virtual Workshop Series offered a compelling interdisciplinary examination of how contemporary populism unsettles the foundations of democratic representation. Bringing together insights from digital politics, the history of political thought, and critical social theory, the session illuminated the multiple arenas—affective, constitutional, and epistemic—through which representation is being reconfigured. Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano revealed how memetic communication and generative AI reshape political identities and moral boundaries within far-right movements. Maria Giorgia Caraceni traced these dynamics to enduring tensions within the conceptual history of popular sovereignty, while Elif Başak Ürdem demonstrated how neoliberal meritocracy generates misrecognition and drives grievances toward populist articulation. Collectively, the session highlighted the necessity of integrated, cross-disciplinary approaches for understanding the evolving crisis of democratic representation.
Reported by ECPS Staff
On November 27, 2025, the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS) convened Session 7 of its Virtual Workshop Series, “We, the People” and the Future of Democracy: Interdisciplinary Approaches. This session, titled “Rethinking Representation in an Age of Populism,” assembled an interdisciplinary group of scholars to interrogate the shifting boundaries of political representation in an era defined by populist appeals, democratic fragmentation, and technological transformation. The workshop opened with a brief orientation by ECPS intern Reka Koleszar, who welcomed participants, provided technical guidance, and formally introduced the moderator, presenters, and discussant on behalf of ECPS, ensuring a smooth and well-structured beginning to the session.
Under the steady and incisive moderation of Dr. Christopher N. Magno (Associate Professor at Department of Justice Studies and Human Services, Gannon University), the session unfolded as a robust intellectual engagement with the crises and possibilities surrounding contemporary democratic representation. Dr. Magno framed the event by situating today’s populist moment within broader transformations affecting democratic institutions, public trust, and communicative infrastructures. Emphasizing that representation must be understood not only institutionally but also symbolically and epistemically, he set the stage for the three presentations, each of which approached the problem of representation from a distinct but complementary angle.
The first presentation, delivered by Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano (Assistant Professor, Department of Audiovisual Communication, Rey Juan Carlos University), examined how memes, short-form videos, and AI-generated images operate as potent vehicles of populist discourse. His talk demonstrated how digital visual cultures simplify complex ideological battles, construct moralized identities, and normalize hostility—revealing the emotional and aesthetic foundations of far-right mobilization in Latin America. By mapping differences in memetic ecosystems across Argentina, Brazil, and El Salvador, Dr. Bayarri illuminated how digital artifacts reshape political communication and reconfigure the representational field.
Next, Maria Giorgia Caraceni (PhD Candidate in the History of Political Thought, Guglielmo Marconi University of Rome; and Researcher at the Institute of Political Studies San Pio V) offered a long-term conceptual genealogy of popular sovereignty, tracing contemporary populism to the enduring tension between monist and pluralist understandings of “the people.” Through a reconstruction of Rousseauian and Madisonian frameworks, Caraceni argued that the conflict between unfettered majority rule and constitutional constraints is not a modern anomaly but a persistent structural dilemma within democratic theory—one that populism reactivates with renewed force.
The final presentation, by Elif Başak Ürdem (PhD candidate in political science at Loughborough University), analyzed populism as a political response to the failures of neoliberal meritocracy. Introducing the concept of epistemic misrecognition, Ürdem argued that meritocratic regimes undermine democratic parity by devaluing non-credentialed forms of knowledge, generating status injury, and closing off channels of political voice. Her synthesis of Nancy Fraser’s tripartite justice framework and Ernesto Laclau’s theory of political articulation offered a novel explanation for why unaddressed grievances increasingly channel into populist mobilization.
The session concluded with deeply engaged feedback given by Dr. Sanne van Oosten (Postdoctoral Researcher at the University of Oxford), whose discussant reflections synthesized the thematic intersections among the papers while posing incisive questions that broadened the theoretical and comparative horizons of the workshop.
Session 7 of the ECPS Virtual Workshop Series offered a compelling interdisciplinary examination of how contemporary populism unsettles the foundations of democratic representation. Bringing together insights from digital politics, the history of political thought, and critical social theory, the session illuminated the multiple arenas—affective, constitutional, and epistemic—through which representation is being reconfigured. Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano revealed how memetic communication and generative AI reshape political identities and moral boundaries within far-right movements. Maria Giorgia Caraceni traced these dynamics to enduring tensions within the conceptual history of popular sovereignty, while Elif Başak Ürdem demonstrated how neoliberal meritocracy generates misrecognition and drives grievances toward populist articulation. Collectively, the session highlighted the necessity of integrated, cross-disciplinary approaches for understanding the evolving crisis of democratic representation.
Reported by ECPS Staff
On November 27, 2025, the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS) convened Session 7 of its Virtual Workshop Series, “We, the People” and the Future of Democracy: Interdisciplinary Approaches. This session, titled “Rethinking Representation in an Age of Populism,” assembled an interdisciplinary group of scholars to interrogate the shifting boundaries of political representation in an era defined by populist appeals, democratic fragmentation, and technological transformation. The workshop opened with a brief orientation by ECPS intern Reka Koleszar, who welcomed participants, provided technical guidance, and formally introduced the moderator, presenters, and discussant on behalf of ECPS, ensuring a smooth and well-structured beginning to the session.
Under the steady and incisive moderation of Dr. Christopher N. Magno (Associate Professor at Department of Justice Studies and Human Services, Gannon University), the session unfolded as a robust intellectual engagement with the crises and possibilities surrounding contemporary democratic representation. Dr. Magno framed the event by situating today’s populist moment within broader transformations affecting democratic institutions, public trust, and communicative infrastructures. Emphasizing that representation must be understood not only institutionally but also symbolically and epistemically, he set the stage for the three presentations, each of which approached the problem of representation from a distinct but complementary angle.
The first presentation, delivered by Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano (Assistant Professor, Department of Audiovisual Communication, Rey Juan Carlos University), examined how memes, short-form videos, and AI-generated images operate as potent vehicles of populist discourse. His talk demonstrated how digital visual cultures simplify complex ideological battles, construct moralized identities, and normalize hostility—revealing the emotional and aesthetic foundations of far-right mobilization in Latin America. By mapping differences in memetic ecosystems across Argentina, Brazil, and El Salvador, Dr. Bayarri illuminated how digital artifacts reshape political communication and reconfigure the representational field.
Next, Maria Giorgia Caraceni (PhD Candidate in the History of Political Thought, Guglielmo Marconi University of Rome; and Researcher at the Institute of Political Studies San Pio V) offered a long-term conceptual genealogy of popular sovereignty, tracing contemporary populism to the enduring tension between monist and pluralist understandings of “the people.” Through a reconstruction of Rousseauian and Madisonian frameworks, Caraceni argued that the conflict between unfettered majority rule and constitutional constraints is not a modern anomaly but a persistent structural dilemma within democratic theory—one that populism reactivates with renewed force.
The final presentation, by Elif Başak Ürdem (PhD candidate in political science at Loughborough University), analyzed populism as a political response to the failures of neoliberal meritocracy. Introducing the concept of epistemic misrecognition, Ürdem argued that meritocratic regimes undermine democratic parity by devaluing non-credentialed forms of knowledge, generating status injury, and closing off channels of political voice. Her synthesis of Nancy Fraser’s tripartite justice framework and Ernesto Laclau’s theory of political articulation offered a novel explanation for why unaddressed grievances increasingly channel into populist mobilization.
The session concluded with deeply engaged feedback given by Dr. Sanne van Oosten (Postdoctoral Researcher at the University of Oxford), whose discussant reflections synthesized the thematic intersections among the papers while posing incisive questions that broadened the theoretical and comparative horizons of the workshop.
Dr. Christopher Magno: Framing the Crisis of Representation in an Age of Populism
Christopher N. Magno is an Associate Professor, Department of Justice Studies and Human Services, Gannon University.
Session began with an illuminating opening address by Dr. Christopher Magno. Expressing his appreciation to the European Center for Populism Studies and to participants joining from across the globe, Dr. Magno framed the session as an interdisciplinary engagement with one of the most pressing challenges facing contemporary democracies: the erosion, contestation, and reconfiguration of political representation in an age of intensifying populism. As chair of the session, he emphasized that the three featured papers—spanning political theory, digital communication, and the sociology of knowledge—collectively reveal the multifaceted nature of today’s representational crisis.
Dr. Magno began by noting that institutions traditionally associated with democratic representation—parties, parliaments, courts, and the media—are experiencing unprecedented stress. Populist leaders increasingly claim to speak exclusively for “the people,” positioning themselves against bureaucracies, independent institutions, and constitutional checks. Simultaneously, citizens express diminishing trust in political actors and deep frustrations with the perceived distance between decision makers and everyday life. Against this backdrop, Dr. Magno highlighted several foundational questions that today’s scholars must revisit: Who—or what—is represented in modern democracies? What constitutes legitimate political knowledge? How is “the people” symbolically constructed? And in what ways do new communicative infrastructures reshape these dynamics?
Introducing the session’s first paper, Dr. Magno highlighted Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano’s analysis of memetic violence within far-right populist movements in Latin America. He explained that Dr. Bayarri shifts the analytical focus from formal institutions to the emotional and visual terrain of memes, short videos, and AI-generated images. These digital artefacts, he noted, perform serious political work: they simplify complex conflicts into stark moral binaries, normalize hostility through humor, and help forge emotionally charged communities bound by grievance and belonging. In an era of generative AI, Dr. Magno observed, narrative authority increasingly slips away from traditional institutions and into decentralized digital ecosystems where populist movements thrive.
He then turned to Maria Giorgia Caraceni’s contribution, which situates populism within the long intellectual history of popular sovereignty. Dr. Magno explained how Caraceni contrasts a monist Rousseauian conception of a unified general will with a pluralist Madisonian framework grounded in constitutional limits and minority protections. From this perspective, populism reactivates monist understandings of “the people,” illuminating not an aberration but a recurring tension embedded in democratic evolution.
Finally, Dr. Magno introduced Elif Başak Ürdem’s paper, which interrogates populism as a rational response to neoliberal meritocracy’s structural failures. Central to Ürdem’s argument is epistemic misrecognition—the process through which technocratic institutions devalue non-credentialed forms of reasoning, producing profound experiences of exclusion and injury. Dr. Magno noted that this framework invites participants to view representation not only institutionally but also epistemically: as a question of whose knowledge counts and who is recognized as a legitimate political subject.
By weaving together structural, cultural, and conceptual analyses, Dr. Magno concluded, the three papers collectively illustrate that the crisis of representation cannot be reduced to economic grievances, digital disruption, or constitutional design alone. Rather, it emerges at their intersection—and it demands renewed scholarly attention to exclusion, sovereignty, and the contested construction of “the people.” With these reflections, he opened the floor and invited the first presentation.
Asst. Prof. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano: “Memetic Communication and Populist Discourse: Decoding the Visual Language of Political Polarization”
Gabriel Bayarri Toscano is an Assistant Professor, Department of Audiovisual Communication, Rey Juan Carlos University.
Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano delivered a rich and empirically grounded presentation that examined how far-right populist movements in Latin America strategically deploy memetic communication—particularly memes, short-form videos, and AI-generated images—to mobilize emotions, construct political identities, and shape moral boundaries. Drawing on more than a decade of research in Brazil and three years of fieldwork in Guatemala, Argentina, Uruguay, and El Salvador, Dr. Bayarri’s talk offered an in-depth exploration of the visual and affective infrastructures that sustain contemporary populist politics. His presentation stemmed from a recent Newton International Fellowship undertaken at the University of London, funded by the British Academy.
At the outset, Dr. Bayarri presented three guiding research questions. First, he asked how memes and AI-generated images intervene in far-right populist discourse—not as light entertainment, but as political artifacts capable of translating ideology into immediate emotional resonance. Second, he explored what comparative insights emerge from studying Brazil, Argentina, and El Salvador, three countries with distinct histories yet convergent visual strategies for constructing “the people” and identifying internal enemies. Third, he probed how humor functions as a mechanism of symbolic violence, normalizing hostility toward women, LGBTQ+ communities, racialized groups, and political opponents.
While Dr. Bayarri did not delve deeply into theoretical debates, he situated memetic communication at the intersection of postcolonial studies, political anthropology, and visual analysis. He conceptualized memes as “cultural and affective artifacts”: multimodal, intuitive forms that condense entire worldviews into a single image or short video. Drawing on affect theory, particularly Sara Ahmed’s work, he underscored how emotions structure political recognition, shaping who is perceived as threatening or trustworthy. His concept of memetic violence captured how humor, satire, and exaggeration operate as tools to legitimize aggression. Far from being peripheral, memes constitute a central mechanism through which far-right populism exerts affective force.
From Pixels to Protest: AI’s Role in Shaping Populist Mobilization
A major portion of the presentation focused on the transformative impact of generative AI. Tools like MidJourney, DALL·E, and Stable Diffusion, he argued, have dramatically lowered the barriers to producing high-quality political imagery. Supporters no longer require graphic-design skills; simple textual prompts now generate polished depictions of Javier Milei as a medieval crusader, Jair Bolsonaro as a messianic figure, or Nayib Bukele as a futuristic sovereign. Rather than diversifying the visual field, AI often reinforces authoritarian and nationalist narratives, giving them heightened emotional charge and aesthetic cohesion.
Methodologically, Dr. Bayarri employed a mixed approach combining digital ethnography, visual analysis, and on-the-ground fieldwork. Across Telegram groups in the three countries studied, he collected more than 25,000 images—both manually produced and AI-generated. Equally significant were his ethnographic observations at rallies, demonstrations, and political events. He emphasized that online imagery does not remain confined to screens; instead, it reappears in chants, T-shirts, flags, street art, and casual political conversations. This online–offline loop shows that memetic communication actively shapes political behavior and helps embed antagonistic narratives in everyday life.
Dr. Bayarri then examined each country case in turn. In Argentina, supporters of Javier Milei construct an intensely mythological visual universe in which the libertarian candidate appears as a lion, crusader, or savior. National symbols blend with fantastical elements to portray him as a heroic figure rescuing the nation from the corrupt “political caste.” Although AI use remains moderate, AI-generated images play a significant symbolic role by presenting Milei with heightened coherence and aesthetic polish. Offline discourse mirrors these representations; slogans such as “He will turn lambs into lions” or “He is our Templar” circulate widely.
Divergent Populist Aesthetics Across Latin America
Brazil, by contrast, exhibits relatively low AI use to date but an extremely high volume of manually produced memes. Here, the dominant motifs are Christian morality, national purity, and moralized depictions of innocence. Bolsonaro is frequently shown embraced by Jesus, while rivals such as Lula are caricatured as corrupt, dirty, or monstrous. Telegram groups often include calls for violence framed through moral binaries like “a good bandit is a dead bandit.” Dr. Bayarri suggested that these moralized narratives may evolve significantly as AI becomes more integrated into Brazilian political communication ahead of the 2026 elections.
El Salvador displayed the highest level of AI-generated imagery. President Nayib Bukele is visually reimagined as a king, messiah, or futuristic architect of national modernity. AI-generated skylines, military parades, and stylized heroism reinforce his narrative of decisive, transformative leadership. Manual memes complement this aesthetic by targeting journalists, NGOs, feminists, and other perceived critics, casting them as threats to national security. Supporters often describe Bukele in salvific terms, saying “He saved us” or “He gave us back our country.”
Across these cases, Dr. Bayarri identified three recurring patterns of memetic violence: (1) Moral binaries, which compress politics into a struggle between good and evil; (2) Humor as dehumanization, making aggression appear harmless and fostering group cohesion; (3) The online–offline loop, where images circulate recursively between digital platforms and street politics, blurring boundaries between representation and mobilization.
In concluding, Dr. Bayarri highlighted three broader implications. First, memes profoundly shape how far-right populist identities are constructed and experienced. Humor, affect, and visual storytelling are not peripheral but foundational to populist subjectivity. Second, generative AI intensifies these dynamics by amplifying heroic imagery and accelerating the dehumanization of opponents. Finally, he argued that understanding contemporary populism requires integrating digital research with embodied ethnographic observation. Memetic communication, especially when accelerated by AI, is not simply representational—it actively organizes emotions and behaviors in ways that help far-right populist movements thrive.
Maria Giorgia Caraceni: “Populism and the Evolution of Popular Sovereignty: A Long-Term Theoretical Perspective”
Maria Giorgia Caraceni is a PhD Candidate in the History of Political Thought, Guglielmo Marconi University of Rome and Researcher at the Institute of Political Studies San Pio V.
Maria Giorgia Caraceni delivered a conceptually rich and historically grounded presentation that positioned populism within the long and complex trajectory of the modern idea of popular sovereignty. Speaking from the perspective of the history of political thought, Caraceni argued that contemporary debates on populism cannot be adequately understood without recovering the intellectual genealogy from which the modern notion of “the people” and its sovereign authority emerged. Her central methodological commitment—what she described as a history of ideas approach—aimed to situate present-day populist practices within the deeper philosophical tensions that have shaped democratic theory since the eighteenth century.
Caraceni began by reflecting on a longstanding challenge in populism studies: the enduring absence of a single, shared definition of populism. Drawing on Yves Mény, she observed that the root of this conceptual indeterminacy lies in the ambiguity of populism’s primary referent, the people. In democratic systems, “the people” is both omnipresent and elusive—an essential but vague category whose empirical boundaries are contested and whose normative authority is continually invoked but rarely clarified. This ambiguity, she suggested, is not a mere lexical problem but a structural feature of democratic politics itself.
The Deep Tensions Underlying Popular Sovereignty
To illuminate this structural dimension, Caraceni turned to Ernesto Laclau’s influential theory. She highlighted Laclau’s claim that “the people” is not an empirical datum but an “empty signifier”—a political construct capable of being filled with diverse and often incompatible demands. For Laclau, a popular identity emerges when heterogeneous grievances are articulated into an equivalential chain: broadening in scope, but thinning in specificity. Caraceni noted that this process results in a political identity that is extensive yet intentionally impoverished, capable of unifying diverse groups under a simplified symbolic banner.
However, the central theoretical move in her presentation was to show that Laclau’s distinction between the logic of equivalence (unifying demands into a monist identity) and the logic of difference (preserving particularities within a pluralist landscape) is far from a contemporary innovation. Rather, she argued, these two logics mirror the foundational contrast between the political philosophies of Jean-Jacques Rousseau and James Madison—the canonical interlocutors in the conceptual history of modern popular sovereignty.
Caraceni then reconstructed these contrasting intellectual traditions. Rousseau, she explained, theorized popular sovereignty by grounding it in the general will, which for him represented the collective, indivisible will of the people. The general will did not correspond to the aggregation of private opinions, but to their transcendence through the removal of subjective differences. Yet Caraceni stressed that Rousseau’s framework contains an intrinsic and often overlooked tension. While it aspires to unanimity, it ultimately reduces this unanimity to majority rule. Individuals in the minority, Rousseau insists, must recognize (or be compelled to recognize) that they were “mistaken” about the general will, having already submitted themselves to the collective through the social contract. Thus, Caraceni noted, Rousseau’s monist conception effectively authorizes the majority to compel conformity from dissenters, revealing the latent risk of majoritarian absolutism.
The Battle Between Pluralism and Monism
Madison, by contrast, represents the paradigmatic pluralist response. In Federalist No. 10, Madison acknowledges the inevitability of factions arising from divergent interests and unequal faculties. The key political challenge, he argues, is preventing majority factions from using their numerical strength to oppress minorities. Popular sovereignty must therefore be limited—structured through constitutional mechanisms, separation of powers, and institutional checks—to safeguard individual rights and ensure that no majority can consolidate unrestrained power. Caraceni emphasized that Madison’s project was not to deny the legitimacy of popular rule, but to prevent its degeneration into tyranny. The enduring dilemma he identifies—how to reconcile majority rule with minority protection—remains at the heart of democratic constitutionalism.
Caraceni argued that this Madisonian insight shaped the development of modern constitutional systems, particularly after the Second World War. Judicial review, entrenched rights, rigid constitutional amendment procedures, and the elevation of constitutional norms above ordinary legislation were all introduced to prevent the abuses of unbridled majoritarianism. In these frameworks, the people remain the ultimate source of legitimacy, but their power is mediated, structured, and limited by constitutional forms.
This historical account provided the foundation for Caraceni’s interpretation of contemporary populism. She contended that populist movements emerging since the late twentieth century—especially those mobilized in reaction to globalization and technocratic governance—effectively revive a monist conception of popular sovereignty. Populist leaders, she argued, reclaim the Rousseauian imaginary of a unified general will, presenting themselves as the authentic embodiment of the “true people” while depicting institutions such as courts, parliaments, and bureaucracies as illegitimate obstacles to popular expression. This rhetorical strategy enables a fusion between the will of a part of society and the will of the whole, a move mirrored in institutional pressures toward centralizing executive power and delegitimizing dissent.
Populism Against the Constitution
Caraceni highlighted several contemporary examples of this dynamic, referring to cases where populist executives pursue constitutional reforms aimed at weakening checks and balances—most clearly visible, she suggested, in Hungary, but with resonances across Europe and beyond. Such “reformative hyperactivism,” as she described it, enables populist leaders to occupy the institutional field while justifying their actions as the restoration of popular sovereignty against unaccountable elites. Yet, she argued, the true target of this agenda is not merely political opponents but liberal constitutionalism itself.
One of the most compelling contributions of Caraceni’s presentation was her insistence that the tension between populism and constitutionalism is not merely circumstantial, but structural. The modern concept of popular sovereignty, she argued, has always contained an unresolved aporia between singularity and plurality—between the desire for a unified people and the necessity of institutionalized limits. Populism, in her view, is not an aberrant pathology or a transient consequence of current crises. Rather, it is a recurring reactivation of the conceptual contradictions embedded within democratic modernity.
In concluding, Caraceni proposed that a full understanding of populism requires a dual-level investigation. On the one hand, scholars must undertake a genealogical inquiry into the history of popular sovereignty to show how its original ambivalences reemerge in contemporary politics. On the other hand, they must analyze the socio-political conditions that trigger populist waves and shape citizens’ attachments to populist claims. Populism, she suggested, arises when structural tensions converge with contextual catalysts, producing moments in which the unresolved dilemmas of popular sovereignty become politically salient and institutionally disruptive.
Caraceni closed by reaffirming her hypothesis: populism should be understood not only as a contingent response to present crises but as a recurring manifestation of the inherent contradictions of democratic sovereignty. Her future work, she noted, will continue to explore how these conceptual tensions shape the evolution of democratic institutions and the practices of popular rule.
Elif Başak Ürdem: “Beyond Fairness — Meritocracy, the Limits of Representation, and the Politics of Populism”
Elif Başak Ürdem is a PhD candidate in political science at Loughborough University.
Elif Başak Ürdem delivered a theoretically ambitious and conceptually innovative presentation that examined the relationship between neoliberal meritocracy, social status, and the emergence of contemporary populist politics. Drawing on her broader dissertation research—an empirical analysis of 29 Western liberal democracies—Ürdem used this presentation to articulate a missing conceptual link in the existing literature: how and why a system ostensibly based on fairness and equal opportunity generates political resentment, status injury, and ultimately populist mobilization. Her presentation sought to resolve an epistemological puzzle within populism research by advancing the concept of epistemic misrecognition, while also bridging the frameworks of Nancy Fraser and Ernesto Laclau to reinterpret populism not as an irrational deviation, but as a political logic emerging from structural failures.
Ürdem began by identifying gaps in the theoretical landscape. While traditional research has often treated populism as a “thin ideology” or an emotional deviation from democratic norms, she argued that this perspective has produced an analytical blind spot. Empirical studies increasingly show that declining subjective social status, rather than objective deprivation alone, is a more powerful predictor of populist support. Yet popular explanations—such as cultural backlash or status anxiety—lack an account of why grievances today are drawn toward populist channels rather than absorbed through traditional left-wing or class-based politics. Here, Ürdem positioned meritocracy as the missing but insufficiently theorized piece.
Populist Articulation in the Age of Neoliberal Meritocracy
Turning to Laclau, Ürdem emphasized the need to shift our ontological stance. For Laclau, populism is not a fixed ideology but a logic of political articulation. Populism emerges when institutions lose their capacity to absorb social demands, creating a backlog of unmet demands that begin to link together through an equivalential chain. These demands, though different in content, share a common blockage—an inability to be processed by existing political and institutional frameworks. What eventually crystallizes is an “empty signifier” such as the people, through which heterogeneous frustrations are expressed.
Laclau, Ürdem argued, gives us the form of populist rupture but not the content. What, she asked, are the specific forces generating unmet demands today? Why do people feel unheard, misrecognized, or excluded? Her answer drew heavily on Nancy Fraser’s tripartite theory of justice and its three mutually constitutive dimensions: redistribution, recognition, and representation. For Fraser, justice requires participatory parity—conditions allowing all members of society to interact as peers. These conditions break down when: Redistribution is undermined through material inequality and economic exclusion. Recognition is denied through cultural hierarchies that devalue specific groups. Representation is distorted when political boundaries and decision-making structures exclude or silence certain voices.
Ürdem’s theoretical innovation was to show how neoliberal meritocracy—far from being a neutral fairness principle—produces systematic failures across all three dimensions. Meritocracy promises equal opportunity and rule by competence, but in practice, she argued, it becomes a justificatory regime that launders privilege, devalues non-dominant cultural repertoires, and delegitimizes democratic participation. She traced these failures in turn.
The Redistributive, Recognitional, and Representational Deficits of Meritocracy
First, redistribution failure occurs because meritocracy conflates procedural equality with outcome legitimacy. Drawing on Claire Chambers, Ürdem explained how the “moment of equal opportunity”—such as a supposedly fair university admissions process—obscures the accumulated advantages embedded in class background. Stratified education systems, far from leveling the playing field, amplify inequalities by rewarding those already endowed with cultural and economic capital. What appears to be the outcome of merit is often the endpoint of a process structured by inherited privilege. Thus, redistribution failure is built not only into welfare regimes but into the very definition of merit.
Second, and central to Ürdem’s contribution, is recognition failure, which she conceptualized as epistemic misrecognition. Meritocracy claims to be an objective measurement of intelligence and effort, yet it privileges middle-class cultural repertoires—such as negotiation skills, verbal expressiveness, and institutional navigation—as if they were neutral indicators of ability. Drawing on Annette Lareau’s distinction between “concerted cultivation” (middle-class childrearing) and “natural growth” (working-class childrearing), Ürdem showed how schools and employers interpret middle-class behaviors as talent while reading working-class dispositions as deficits. This is not merely cultural marginalization; it is an injury to one’s perceived capacity for reason. The working class is not only under-rewarded but rendered unintelligible within dominant rationalities. This epistemic misrecognition then feeds redistribution failure: only certain forms of knowledge are validated and economically rewarded.
Third, representation failure follows from the technocratic turn of neoliberal meritocracy. If political competence is equated with technical expertise, then democratic contestation is framed as inefficient or dangerous. Drawing on Hopkin and Blyth, Ürdem described how key economic decisions in Europe have been insulated from public influence in the name of market stability. Those already suffering from maldistribution and misrecognition are thus doubly silenced: they are deemed economically unviable, culturally irrational, and politically incompetent. Their grievances lack institutional channels for articulation.
Populism as the Consequence of Meritocratic Closure
Ürdem’s argument culminated in showing how these three failures converge to produce the exact conditions Laclau describes. Material insecurity, cultural devaluation, and political exclusion create a reservoir of unmet demands that cannot be expressed within the existing technocratic grammar. These demands—dismissed as resentment, envy, or irrational populist anger—accumulate and link together through the shared experience of being unheard and unrecognized. Populism, she argued, is the return of the political that neoliberal meritocracy tries to suppress.
In closing, Ürdem highlighted the three main contributions of her paper. First, it reframes populism not as a deviation from democratic norms but as a symptom of meritocratic closure. Second, it introduces epistemic misrecognition as a crucial mechanism explaining how meritocracy produces status injury and political alienation. Third, it builds a conceptual bridge between Fraser’s theory of justice and Laclau’s theory of political articulation, offering a relational language for analyzing how neoliberal meritocracy generates populist demands.
Ultimately, Ürdem’s presentation provided a compelling theoretical explanation for why grievances in contemporary democracies increasingly move through populist channels rather than traditional left-wing politics. By demonstrating how neoliberal meritocracy denies material security, cultural standing, and political voice, she argued that populism emerges as a rational—if explosive—response to a system that insists individuals both deserve their suffering and lack the vocabulary to articulate it.
Discussant Dr. Sanne van Oosten’s Feedback
Dr. Sanne van Oosten is a Postdoctoral Researcher at the University of Oxford.
As discussant, Dr. Sanne van Oosten offered an engaged, generous, and analytically sharp set of reflections on the three papers presented by Gabriel Bayarri Toscano, Maria Giorgia Caraceni, and Elif Başak Ürdem. She opened by emphasizing how impressed she was with the intellectual quality and timeliness of all three contributions, stressing that each paper was theoretically sophisticated, empirically grounded, and deeply attuned to current developments in populism research. Her comments combined appreciation with pointed questions designed to push the authors’ arguments further.
Reflections on Gabriel Bayarri Toscano’s Paper
Turning first to Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano, Dr. van Oosten praised his analysis of memes and AI-generated images as more than mere jokes, instead treating them as political artefacts that make complex ideological narratives instantly intelligible. She highlighted how convincingly his presentation showed that these visual forms translate abstract ideas into accessible, emotionally resonant symbols, thereby shaping how people perceive political conflicts and identities.
Dr. van Oosten drew an illuminating historical parallel between contemporary memes and earlier traditions of political cartoons. She noted that, for centuries, cartoons have functioned as dense, highly coded political commentaries that require substantial cultural and contextual knowledge to decode. In her view, Dr. Bayarri’s work sits in continuity with this long history: today’s memes, like past cartoons, demand a broad repertoire of cultural and political references from their audiences. She suggested that future historians are likely to use these memes in much the same way scholars now use historical cartoons—as windows into the emotional, moral, and ideological landscapes of a particular era. She invited Dr. Bayarri to reflect on how he expects these memes to be interpreted in hindsight: What broader narratives will they be seen as part of, and to what extent will their meaning remain legible to those lacking the original context?
Another key theme in her feedback concerned the democratization of image production. Dr. van Oosten underscored the significance of Dr. Bayarri’s observation that, with generative AI, users no longer need technical skills such as Photoshop to create powerful images. She encouraged him to delve more deeply into how this shift may or may not change the political communication landscape. While it seems that “anyone” can now produce striking visual content, Dr. van Oosten raised the possibility that this apparent openness might have limited real impact, depending on who actually controls visibility, distribution, and reach.
Building on this, she asked for more detail on the country comparison. Dr. Bayarri’s research shows notable variation in AI use between Brazil, Argentina, and El Salvador, with Brazil relying more on manually produced memes and El Salvador displaying the highest proportion of AI-generated images. Dr. van Oosten urged him to theorize why this is the case. Do these differences reflect national political cultures, varying levels of digital infrastructure, platform ecosystems, or simply the characteristics of the specific Telegram groups he studied? Exploring these explanations, she suggested, could considerably strengthen the comparative dimension of the paper.
Finally, Dr. van Oosten urged closer attention to authorship and agency in meme production. Drawing on an example from the Netherlands, where a major far-right meme group turned out to be administered by members of parliament rather than anonymous “ordinary” users, she questioned the common assumption that meme-makers are isolated individuals in their bedrooms. She encouraged Dr. Bayarri to investigate who actually produces the content he analyzed—grassroots supporters, organized campaign teams, party professionals, or hybrid constellations—and how their prompts, aesthetic choices, and strategic goals shape the memetic ecosystem.
Reflections on Maria Giorgia Caraceni’s Paper
Dr.van Oosten then turned to the paper by Maria Giorgia Caraceni, which she described as a highly impressive exercise in conceptual and historical synthesis. She commended Caraceni for bringing together Ernesto Laclau, Jean-Jacques Rousseau, and James Madison into a rigorous framework that clarifies how monist and pluralist understandings of popular sovereignty inform contemporary populist claims to majority rule. In particular, she appreciated how Caraceni showed that populism’s narrow conception of “the people” as a unified majority has deep roots in democratic thought, rather than being an abrupt contemporary aberration.
Her main invitation was for Caraceni to spell out more explicitly what is normatively and politically problematic about majority rule when it is equated with “the true people.” Dr. van Oosten suggested that while the paper clearly demonstrates how this conception marginalizes minorities, it could go further in specifying what, concretely, is lost when political systems center only the majority voice. Which minority experiences, vulnerabilities, or interests are obscured or silenced? How does this affect the quality of democratic citizenship and equality?
To deepen this point, Dr. van Oosten proposed an intersectional lens. Drawing on intersectional thinking, she noted that almost everyone is a minority in some dimension of their identity: a white man might be less educated, living with a disability, or economically precarious; a member of an ethnic majority might belong to a sexual or religious minority, and so on. From this perspective, minority protection is not about safeguarding a small, isolated segment of the population, but about recognizing that virtually all citizens have dimensions of vulnerability. She encouraged Caraceni to integrate this insight as a way of reinforcing her critique of monist majority rule and showing how the erosion of minority protections ultimately undermines democratic security for nearly everyone.
Dr. van Oosten also connected Caraceni’s theoretical framework to contemporary right-wing populism. She suggested that many actors on the right attempt to marry deeply unpopular economic agendas—such as policies favoring big business—with claims to represent the majority, often framed as the “white” or “ordinary” people. This allows them to appropriate the language of majority rule even when their economic programmes do not benefit most citizens. She encouraged Caraceni to engage with this paradox more explicitly, as it would further demonstrate the political importance of her conceptual work and reveal how appeals to “the majority” can obscure underlying alliances with powerful economic interests.
Reflections on Elif Başak Ürdem’s Paper
Finally, Dr. van Oosten addressed the paper by Elif Başak Ürdem, which she praised for its clarity and for the analytical power of its tripartite framework, drawing on redistribution, recognition, and representation. She found Ürdem’s critique of meritocracy particularly compelling, especially the argument that meritocracy amplifies existing class structures by valuing certain cultural repertoires and parenting styles while devaluing others. She linked this insight to the COVID-19 pandemic, when society sharply distinguished between “essential” and “non-essential” work—often revealing that many of the most necessary jobs were neither the highest paid nor the most prestigious. This experience, Dr. van Oosten suggested, dramatically illustrated the disconnect between meritocratic status and social value.
Her main question for Ürdem concerned what happens after populist radical right parties enter formal politics and even government. Ürdem’s paper convincingly theorizes misrecognition and status injury under conditions in which certain groups feel their views and ways of knowing are excluded from mainstream political representation. But in several countries—such as Italy or the Netherlands—previously marginalized populist radical right forces now hold significant power or participate in governing coalitions. Dr. van Oosten asked how this development affects the dynamics of misrecognition: Do supporters feel less misrecognized once “their” parties are in office, or does the sense of exclusion persist, perhaps redirected toward new enemies such as supranational institutions, domestic elites, or cultural minorities? She suggested that exploring these empirical cases could refine Ürdem’s argument and test its implications under changing political conditions.
Dr. van Oosten closed by linking Ürdem’s work to recent empirical research, such as studies by Caterina de Vries and colleagues on public service deprivation and support for the populist radical right. These studies show that tangible reductions in access to public services and state presence—whether in healthcare, local infrastructure, or everyday administration—significantly increase the likelihood of developing radical right attitudes and voting patterns. Dr. van Oosten argued that these findings resonate strongly with Ürdem’s emphasis on misrecognition and perceived abandonment, and she encouraged her to integrate such evidence more directly, as it would further substantiate her claims about the material and symbolic dimensions of exclusion.
Overall, Dr. Sanne van Oosten’s discussant feedback combined deep engagement with the authors’ arguments, thoughtful connections to broader literatures, and constructive suggestions for future development. Her interventions highlighted the conceptual richness and empirical relevance of all three papers and reinforced the central theme of the session: that understanding populism today requires grappling simultaneously with structures, narratives, identities, and the evolving conditions of democratic representation.
Presenters’ Responses to the Discussant
Following Dr. Sanne van Oosten’s detailed and generous discussant remarks on all three papers presented in Session 7, each of the authors offered thoughtful and discerning responses. Their replies not only clarified core dimensions of their arguments but also highlighted areas for further conceptual and empirical development. Collectively, their reflections underscored the intellectual richness of the session and the productive synergies between their respective approaches to understanding populism, representation, and democratic tension.
Response by Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano
Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano began by expressing deep appreciation for Dr. van Oosten’s insights, noting that her comments resonated not only with his own work but with the broader themes raised by the session. He addressed her first set of questions regarding the historical continuity between contemporary memes and older forms of political cartooning. Dr. Bayarri explained that he is currently preparing an application for a research grant with the British Library to analyze two centuries’ worth of political cartoons—an endeavor that he hopes will illuminate parallels between earlier visual political repertoires and today’s memetic ecosystems. His goal is to identify aesthetic and semiotic patterns that recur over time, particularly within Latin America’s visual construction of political enemies and moral antagonisms. Yet he cautioned that building such a historical bridge is methodologically complex. Unlike more recent comic traditions, older cartoons were produced under different political, cultural, and technological conditions, making direct linear comparison difficult. Nevertheless, he affirmed that Dr. van Oosten’s suggestion had strengthened his resolve to pursue these connections.
Dr. Bayarri then elaborated on the participatory and collaborative dimensions of contemporary meme production, clarifying that one key feature distinguishing memes from classic cartoons is the ability of users to modify, remix, and re-embed visual content. Even when a meme originates from a single creator, its life cycle involves numerous micro-alterations—changing symbols, colors, props, or textual overlays. He described this as a form of “compositional logic” fundamental to understanding the affective bonds and collective identity that emerge within far-right digital communities.
With the rise of generative AI, however, Dr. Bayarri observed a new paradox: while meme-making has become technically democratized, it also risks becoming re-individualized, since AI-generated images typically emerge from a single textual prompt rather than collective layering. This shift mirrors older forms of authorship and centralization found in 20th-century cartooning, thereby complicating assumptions about participatory production in digital environments.
Addressing the question of national variation in meme ecosystems, Dr. Bayarri noted that regulatory frameworks and the timing of fieldwork significantly shape the prevalence of AI-generated content. Brazil, which is gearing up for upcoming elections, has already begun debating and formulating regulations governing AI-produced images. Meanwhile, rapid technological innovations occurring within months of each electoral cycle mean that fieldwork snapshots inevitably capture evolving and uneven dynamics. He stressed that differences between countries often reflect the temporality of technological diffusion rather than stable cultural patterns.
Finally, Bayarri responded to Dr. van Oosten’s questions about authorship. He confirmed that meme producers range widely—from isolated individuals angered by corruption scandals, to organized far-right digital activists, to coordinated troll networks operating as part of broader communication strategies. His findings indicate a layered ecosystem in which spontaneous grassroots contributions coexist with strategically orchestrated propaganda infrastructures.
Response by Maria Giorgia Caraceni
Maria Giorgia Caraceni also conveyed gratitude for Dr. van Oosten’s constructive feedback. She clarified that her use of the term “majority” refers specifically to political or parliamentary majorities, rather than majorities in sociological or demographic terms. In her view, the central danger arises when such majorities operate without constraints, unencumbered by constitutional limits or checks and balances.
Caraceni emphasized two key risks. First, majorities are inherently transient; a group exercising unchecked power today may find itself marginalized tomorrow. Constitutional constraints therefore serve as safeguards not only for minorities but for the political majority itself. Second, in representative democracies, the absence of an imperative mandate means elected representatives may drift from their constituencies. Without institutional limits, citizens—including members of the majority—risk being exposed to abuses of concentrated authority.
She agreed with Dr. van Oosten that public misunderstanding about the function and purpose of constitutional constraints exacerbates this problem. Many citizens perceive constitutional limits as obstacles to popular sovereignty rather than as protections designed to secure democratic equality. For Caraceni, this signals a deeper cultural challenge, rooted in insufficient public knowledge about constitutionalism and democratic institutional design. She noted that dissatisfaction tends to reemerge during moments of economic hardship or geopolitical instability, when populist narratives gain traction by framing constitutional safeguards as elitist barriers to the people’s will.
While she acknowledged the difficulty of resolving this cultural and educational deficit, Caraceni affirmed that her future work aims to continue interrogating the structural tensions between monist and pluralist logics of sovereignty—tensions she believes are recurrent features of democratic life rather than temporary aberrations.
Response by Elif Başak Ürdem
In her response, Elif Başak Ürdem thanked Dr. van Oosten for raising crucial questions that helped refine her conceptual framework. Ürdem explained that her work increasingly focuses on class through the lens of recognition, particularly in relation to what Michael Sandel terms the “dignity of labor.” She reiterated that epistemic misrecognition concerns not merely cultural disrespect but the denial of moral equality—societal messages implying that certain forms of work, knowledge, or reasoning lack legitimacy.
Ürdem addressed the question of what happens when populist radical right parties gain formal representation or enter government. Drawing on Laclau’s notion of the double movement between represented and representative, she argued that once populist figures become institutional actors, their symbolic authority allows them to frame demands, grievances, and identities in powerful ways. This does not necessarily eliminate feelings of misrecognition. Instead, supporters may redirect their sense of exclusion toward new perceived antagonists—technocratic institutions, judicial bodies, EU frameworks, or cultural elites—maintaining a populist logic even after electoral success.
Finally, Ürdem reflected on the political implications of her research. She argued that scholars and political actors who oppose right-wing populism must engage more directly with questions of class, status, and recognition, rather than dismiss populist grievances as irrational. Populism, in her interpretation, signals a return of political contestation that neoliberal meritocracy sought to suppress. She concluded by noting that she intends to further clarify the contours of epistemic misrecognition in subsequent iterations of her work.
The presenters’ responses collectively demonstrated a shared commitment to deepening their theoretical and empirical approaches, while also highlighting the generative impact of Dr. van Oosten’s discussant interventions. Their reflections showcased three distinct yet complementary engagements with populism—as a visual and affective practice, a constitutional and philosophical dilemma, and a response to structural injustice and misrecognition. In doing so, they underscored the richness of Session 7’s contributions and the value of interdisciplinary dialogue in advancing contemporary populism research.
Q&A Session
The Q&A session brought forward a lively, intellectually generous exchange among the panelists, the discussant, and the audience. Moderated by Dr. Magno, the conversation unfolded as an open, exploratory dialogue, allowing participants to deepen key themes emerging from the three papers. The session illustrated how visual politics, democratic theory, and meritocratic misrecognition intersect in shaping contemporary populist dynamics.
Dr. Magno began by drawing historical parallels between Dr. Bayarri’s work on memes and his own earlier research on US colonial caricatures of Filipinos. He noted that early caricatures—produced in an era without radio or television—served as state-driven tools of othering that legitimized colonial domination. By contrast, he observed that today’s digitally generated memes democratize the power to distort, ridicule, or challenge political figures, shifting symbolic control from state institutions to digitally networked publics. This, he suggested, makes Dr. Bayarri’s work crucial for understanding how contemporary othering unfolds outside traditional institutional boundaries.
Dr. Bayarri responded by acknowledging Dr. Magno’s points on the historical legacy of visual stereotyping. He noted that AI-driven meme production has enabled new forms of symbolic violence, normalizing racialized or dehumanizing narratives under the guise of humor. Such normalization, he argued, can seep into public discourse and influence political behavior, including support for exclusionary policies. He affirmed that studying the evolution of these visual forms—both their genealogy and their political effects—remains central to understanding far-right mobilization.
The discussion then shifted to Elif Başak Ürdem’s presentation. Dr. Magno suggested that figures like Donald Trump may operate as examples of “criminal populism,” where political actors capitalize on their own legal troubles to attract supporters—a reversal of penal populism, which targets marginalized groups. He asked whether Ürdem saw Trump’s mobilization strategy as a form of epistemic misrecognition.
Ürdem offered a nuanced clarification. While Trump strategically uses misrecognition narratives, she argued that he does not embody them; rather, he appeals to supporters who feel politically powerless or epistemically dismissed. The issue, in her view, is not the charisma of elite leaders but the inability of existing political frameworks to absorb certain demands, a dynamic rooted in technocratic governance and meritocratic valuation. She stressed that when rational debate becomes circumscribed by elite-defined norms, grievances—however simple or uncomfortable—find alternative, populist outlets.
The final thread of discussion centered on Maria Giorgia Caraceni’s theoretical framework. Dr. Magno invited Caraceni to reflect on the phenomenon of voter regret among supporters of populist leaders such as Trump or Duterte—groups who later experience personal harm under the policies they endorsed. Caraceni acknowledged the complexity of this dynamic, noting that institutional design shapes both the risks and recoverability of populist excesses. Presidential systems, she suggested, are especially vulnerable due to heightened polarization and fewer internal constraints. Ultimately, however, she argued that these cycles underscore the fragility of democratic knowledge: voters often underestimate the protective role of constitutional safeguards until it is too late.
The session concluded with a contribution from Dr. Bülent Kenes, who suggested that Ürdem consider integrating Rawlsian ideas—particularly the “veil of ignorance”—to further illuminate meritocracy as inherited privilege rather than neutral achievement. Ürdem replied that although Rawls was not included in her presentation, his work, alongside Fraser’s and Laclau’s, is extensively engaged within her paper.
Conclusion
Session 7 of the ECPS Virtual Workshop Series offered a vivid demonstration of how interdisciplinary scholarship can illuminate the evolving relationship between populism and democratic representation in the twenty-first century. Across the three papers and the subsequent discussion, a unifying theme emerged: the crisis of representation is not reducible to a single institutional malfunction but is instead the outcome of intersecting structural, cultural, and epistemic transformations reshaping democratic life. By juxtaposing visual political cultures, the conceptual history of sovereignty, and the failures of neoliberal meritocracy, the session revealed that contemporary populism draws strength from multiple sites of dislocation—affective, constitutional, and socio-economic.
Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano’s work showed how memetic communication and generative AI reorganize the emotional infrastructures of politics, enabling far-right movements to mobilize affective communities and reinforce exclusionary narratives. Maria Giorgia Caraceni’s long-term theoretical perspective underscored that the conflict between monist appeals to a unified people and pluralist constitutional constraints is not an anomaly of the present but a recurring tension at the core of democratic sovereignty. Elif Başak Ürdem’s analysis further demonstrated how neoliberal meritocracy erodes participatory parity, generating misrecognition, political silencing, and an accumulation of unmet demands that increasingly crystallize in populist forms.
Equally significant were the insights of discussant Dr. Sanne van Oosten, whose commentary skillfully connected these diverse contributions. Her reflections highlighted how digital aesthetics, constitutional design, and meritocratic ideology collectively shape the representational vacuums in which populism thrives. The presenters’ responses reinforced the session’s central insight: that understanding populism requires attention to both deep structural contradictions and the emergent cultural and technological terrains through which political identities are forged.
Ultimately, Session 7 illuminated how the crisis of representation is inseparable from broader contests over sovereignty, recognition, and the definition of legitimate political knowledge. In doing so, it reaffirmed the necessity of interdisciplinary inquiry for grasping the complexities of democratic life in an age of resurgent populism.
Chile’s November 16, 2025 presidential vote has produced an unprecedented runoff between José Antonio Kast and Jeannette Jara, crystallizing what Assoc. Prof. Manuel Larrabure calls a historic ideological rupture. Speaking to ECPS, he warns that Chile’s shift must be understood within a broader continental realignment: “A new right-wing alliance is emerging in Latin America—and democracy will take a toll.” According to Larrabure, this bloc is not restoring old authoritarianism but “reinventing democracy—and it’s working.” Kast’s coalition embodies a regional “Bolsonaro–Milei playbook,” powered by what Larrabure terms “rule by chaos,” amplified by compulsory voting and disinformation ecosystems. Meanwhile, the Chilean left enters the run-off severely weakened—“the final nail in the coffin” of a long cycle of progressive contestation.
Chile’s first-round presidential election on November 16, 2025 has produced one of the most consequential political realignments in the country’s post-authoritarian history. For the first time since return to democracy, voters are confronted with a stark extreme-right–versus–Communist runoff between José Antonio Kast and Jeannette Jara—an outcome that crystallizes the profound fragmentation and ideological polarization reshaping Chilean politics. Against this backdrop, the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS) spoke with Associate Professor Manuel Larrabure, a scholar of Latin American Studies at Bucknell University, whose research on Latin American political transformations offers a critical vantage point on Chile’s current trajectory. As he notes, the 2025 election marks not merely a national turning point, but a regional one: “A new right-wing alliance is emerging in Latin America—and democracy will take a toll.”
Dr. Larrabure situates Chile’s sharp bifurcation within a wider continental pattern of right-wing recomposition, one increasingly linked across Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia, and beyond. This emergent bloc, he argues, is not driven by nostalgia for past authoritarianism but by a more adaptive and experimental form of illiberal governance. “They are not trying to destroy democracy,” he stresses. “They are trying to reinvent it—and it’s working.” Kast’s coalition, he suggests, fits squarely within this “Bolsonaro–Milei playbook,” but is tempered by Chile’s more conservative political culture. Still, the danger is clear: the right is forging a novel repertoire of power in an era defined by global monopolies, weakened party systems, and disoriented progressive forces.
One of Dr. Larrabure’s most striking insights concerns what he calls the right wing’s mastery of “rule by chaos.” Rather than relying solely on repression, the contemporary right activates social anxieties—around crime, immigration, and insecurity—to mobilize working-class discontent. This dynamic has been amplified, he argues, by Chile’s reintroduced system of compulsory voting, which “absolutely turned out working in favor of the right wing” during the failed constitutional plebiscite of 2022. Social mediaecosystems have further strengthened the right’s influence by “creating an atmosphere of general misinformation and chaos, communicational chaos and informational chaos, in which they can operate with ease.”
By contrast, the Chilean left enters the 2025 runoff severely weakened. Dr. Larrabure describes the election as “the final nail in the coffin of a cycle of contestation” that began with the 2006 school protests, peaked in the 2011 student movement, and culminated in the aborted constitutional process of 2019–2022. Progressive forces, he contends, have struggled to translate grassroots innovation into institutional power, hampered in part by diminished capacities for popular education and an unresolved tension between participatory democratic ideals and party-led governance.
Looking ahead, Dr. Larrabure foresees intensified social conflict but also the latent possibility of democratic renewal. Chile’s constitutional debate, he argues, is effectively over; yet social movements will continue to respond. Ultimately, the question is whether they can forge a transformative project capable of “learning from the mistakes of the past” amid an increasingly securitized and polarized political landscape.