Professor Yoav Peled.

Prof. Peled: Israel Risks Losing What Remains of Its Liberal Democracy After October 27

In an in-depth interview with the ECPS, Professor Yoav Peled, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Tel Aviv University, warns that Israel’s October 27 elections could accelerate the erosion of liberal democracy rather than reverse it. Examining Netanyahu’s enduring populist appeal, the growing influence of religious nationalism, and the weakening of judicial independence, Professor Peled describes Israel’s transition from “a sort of semi-liberal democracy to a majoritarian democracy.” He argues that the opposition’s reluctance to cooperate with Palestinian parties and its unwillingness to address Palestinian statehood severely constrain prospects for democratic renewal. Warning that “any remaining resemblance to a liberal democracy is going to be erased,” Professor Peled maintains that without addressing Palestinian rights, “Israeli democracy cannot be sustained.”

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

As Israel approaches its October 27 elections, the country faces profound political and societal divisions shaped by the aftermath of October 7, the devastating war in Gaza, intensifying religious nationalism, and persistent challenges to democratic institutions. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political resilience, the growing influence of the radical right, and the opposition’s uncertain alternatives raise fundamental questions about Israel’s democratic future and its relationship with Palestinians. Against this backdrop, Professor Yoav Peled, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Tel Aviv University, offers a sobering assessment of Israel’s democratic trajectory, warning that “any remaining resemblance to a liberal democracy is going to be erased.”

In an extensive interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Professor Peled situates Israel’s democratic deterioration within the longer historical evolution of ethno-national populism, religious Zionism, and differentiated citizenship. Drawing on his influential scholarship, he argues that Netanyahu’s political resilience cannot be understood solely through electoral competition or governmental performance. Rather, it reflects deeply embedded ethno-class resentments, particularly among segments of the Mizrahi population, and an emotional identification with populist leadership that transcends conventional assessments of political accountability.

Central to Professor Peled’s analysis is the erosion of the institutional foundations of liberal democracy. He characterizes Netanyahu’s judicial reform initiative as “really a regime coup against the system that prevailed until then,” describing a transition from “a sort of semi-liberal democracy to a majoritarian democracy.” In his interpretation, the systematic weakening of judicial independence and other institutional checks threatens the constitutional limitations that protect individual and minority rights against unrestricted majority rule.

Yet Professor Peled emphasizes that Israel’s democratic crisis extends beyond institutional restructuring. He identifies the unresolved Palestinian question as a fundamental contradiction within the country’s political order. Reflecting on his earlier scholarship with Gershon Shafir, he acknowledges that their previous optimism regarding the reconciliation of Zionism and democracy proved “completely unwarranted.” For Professor Peled, continued occupation, settlement expansion, and Palestinian political marginalization make democratic renewal increasingly difficult.

The interview also examines the growing influence of religious nationalism, the transformation of the West Bank under Bezalel Smotrich, and the consequences of October 7 for Israeli political culture. Professor Peled argues that the opposition’s reluctance to cooperate with Palestinian parties, combined with its limited commitment to Palestinian statehood, demonstrates the narrow ideological boundaries of electoral competition.

Moreover, Peled presents the October 27 elections not as an opportunity for democratic restoration but as a potential accelerator of existing transformations. Warning that Israel is moving toward what he calls a “religious-nationalist state,”he maintains that without fundamentally addressing Palestinian equality and self-determination, “Israeli democracy cannot be sustained.” His assessment raises a broader question about whether electoral competition can preserve democratic institutions when the underlying structures of ethnonational exclusion remain largely uncontested.

Here is our interview with Professor Yoav Peled, edited lightly to enhance clarity, readability, and overall flow for publication.

In Populism, Emotions Matter More Than Facts

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his visit to Prague, Czech Republic, on December 5, 2012. Photo: Dreamstime.

Professor Peled, thank you for joining us. Let me begin with your research on the foundations of Israeli populism. In your article, The Ascendance of Ethno-National Populism in Israel, 1977–2022, you emphasize historical ethno-class resentment, competition with Palestinians, and existential insecurity rather than conventional economic grievances. Ahead of the October 27 elections, how does this framework explain Netanyahu’s enduring support despite the failures of October 7 and the prolonged Gaza war? Has the war reinforced these divisions or created new political identities that could reshape the electoral landscape?

Professor Yoav Peled: As you know, in populism, facts—or the cognitive level—are not that important. What is crucial is the emotional level that motivates people. Among the Mizrahim in Israel, whose families came from the Muslim world, maybe 60 to 70% support Netanyahu, according to studies. 

They support Bibi (Netanyahu) because he has assumed the position of a populist leader, and a populist leader can do no wrong(!) If anything goes wrong, it is not his fault(!) A whole lot of other people are to blame for his mistakes, mishaps, misdoings, corruption, and incompetence—all of those things(!) 

So, the facts of the matter do not affect him or his support. He is therefore in a very powerful position to win these elections, in spite of everything you just mentioned.

Anti-Ashkenazi Resentment Shapes Political Behavior

You demonstrate how the historical marginalization of Mizrahim under Labor Zionism fostered their enduring identification with Likud, even amid upward socioeconomic mobility. Why does anti-establishment resentment persist across generations, and how has Netanyahu transformed this historical cleavage into a durable political identity that transcends economic performance and security failures? Could the upcoming elections reveal any significant erosion of this longstanding ethno-class alignment?

Professor Yoav Peled: It’s actually the same explanation, the same dynamic. The resentment is not only maintained; it grows over time. The third generation of Mizrahim is more resentful of the labor movement than their parents and grandparents. I’m saying this on the basis of two public opinion polls I conducted, one just before the November 2022 elections and the other this July.

You can see that the third generation is more resentful and more supportive of Bibi, or the right wing in general, than the previous two generations. So, this resentment is not going away. Of course, I’m not talking about all Mizrahim, but about a significant portion of this population.

This resentment—again, I’m saying this on the basis of very profound studies conducted by other researchers—turns into hatred of Ashkenazim, who are identified with the labor establishment, even though that establishment has not been in power since 1977. This remains a very strong emotion, and it is really what shapes their political behavior.

The Opposition Is Politically Similar and Incompetent

You trace Israeli right-wing populism from Menachem Begin’s 1977 breakthrough to Netanyahu’s personalized leadership. How can Likud, after decades in government, still mobilize against the judiciary, media, and liberal establishment as enemies of the authentic people? Does Netanyahuism represent a transformation of Revisionist Zionism or the culmination of its longstanding populist tendencies, and how might this shape Likud’s electoral appeal on October 27?

Professor Yoav Peled: Their electoral appeal declined after October 7. Likud itself lost about one-third of its support, while the Netanyahu coalition lost perhaps one-fifth or one-sixth of its support, so the overall decline is not very significant. On the other side, the opposition, which is not that different politically and has shown great incompetence in campaigning, is not gaining traction. It has a slight advantage over the Netanyahu coalition, but not enough to win this election.

So, based on everything we’ve discussed so far, it’s very likely that Netanyahu will win this election. Winning would mean either persuading part of the opposition to join him in a coalition government or, failing that, a tie between the two blocs. Such a tie would mean that he continues as prime minister for at least three months. During that period, he would have more freedom than under normal circumstances, which would be great for him.

Military Exemptions Are Netanyahu’s Weakest Point

In your study of Shas, you argue that religious identity enabled marginalized Mizrahim to challenge the secular establishment while integrating into mainstream Israeli society. How has this strategy evolved under Netanyahu, and could disputes over ultra-Orthodox military exemptions undermine the cohesion and electoral prospects of the religious-nationalist coalition?

Professor Yoav Peled: The exemption of ultra-Orthodox young men is really the big issue. Nobody is talking about women. Normally, Israeli women serve in the military, but nobody is talking about ultra-Orthodox women, only ultra-Orthodox young men.

This is a very big issue because those who have served since October 7 have faced a tremendous burden. It is really the weakest point in the Netanyahu bloc’s electoral prospects because many people, including many Mizrahim, resent the fact that they have to serve. Some have served 300 or 400 days in the military reserves since October 7. Many of them are Mizrahim, and many are Netanyahu supporters.

This is the main reason why support for Netanyahu, Likud, and the coalition has declined. It is the main controversial issue as far as they are concerned. But, as we see in all the polls, it is not enough to weaken Netanyahu to the point where the opposition will win.

Violence in the West Bank Is State Action

The West Bank, Palestine.
Tear gas clouds spread across Palestinian fields near the village of Bil’in in the West Bank, with an Israeli settlement in the occupied Palestinian territories visible in the background. Photo: Dreamstime.

In From Safe Haven to Messianic Redemption, you explain how Religious Zionism evolved from Labor Zionism’s junior partner into an increasingly hegemonic force committed to incorporating the West Bank into Israeli sovereignty. How far has this project advanced under Netanyahu, Smotrich, and Ben-Gvir? Has messianic nationalism become normalized within mainstream Israeli politics, and what might the upcoming elections reveal about its popular appeal?

Professor Yoav Peled: You’ve seen what’s been happening in the West Bank over the last few days. They try to portray it as the actions of misfits, misguided youth, and so on, but this is really state action. If the state didn’t want it, it could suppress it very easily. But the state wants it. Under Netanyahu, Likud, and his coalition, they want to get rid of the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. It’s not going to happen in the immediate future, but they’re trying to make their lives unbearable so that they will leave. They call it “voluntary immigration.” That’s the code word.

It’s important to note something that isn’t frequently discussed. The whole idea of peace between Israel and the Palestinians died in 2000. Ehud Barak killed it at Camp David in 2000. That was the end of the Oslo peace process. Since then, nobody has been talking about peace or any kind of solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict other than continued Israeli occupation, continued Israeli suppression of the Palestinians, and occasional outbursts of violence.

Growing Religiosity Strengthens Support for Likud

Drawing on Gramsci, you argue that Religious Zionism increasingly defines the boundaries of legitimate Israeli political discourse, extending its influence beyond religious constituencies. Has October 7 consolidated this ideological hegemony around territorial sovereignty and rejection of Palestinian statehood, or exposed contradictions within the religious-nationalist historic bloc? How might these dynamics influence electoral behavior across Israel’s political spectrum?

Professor Yoav Peled: October 7 gave a tremendous push to the process of religionization that was already underway. Now, it’s almost mandatory for every entertainer, singer, actor, actress, or other public figure to say that they’re becoming “strengthened.” When people become more religious, they call it being “strengthened,” meaning that their devotion to the Jewish religion has increased. Even if they haven’t become fully religious, they’ve become more religious. This is now a recurring theme in public pronouncements by many of these people.

You see all kinds of young women, barely dressed in anything, who nevertheless swear that they’ve become more religious, that they follow these strictures, and that they believe in God. Everybody believes in God, and so on. So, October 7 really accelerated the process of religionization.

Politically, this is interesting. The Religious Zionist political parties—there’s one with that name and others that come from the same milieu—haven’t gained that much political power. Much of this religionization process, this increased devotion to religion, is expressed politically through support for Likud or other parties in the Netanyahu coalition, rather than necessarily for Religious Zionism itself. This is due to all kinds of minor reasons related to the political landscape.

Ben-Gvir Has Turned the Police into His Private Militia

The incorporation of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich into government has brought ultranationalist and religiously maximalist movements into positions of executive authority. How do their ideological projects differ from Netanyahu’s populism? Have they fundamentally transformed Israeli institutions, or primarily shifted the boundaries of acceptable political discourse toward previously extremist positions? What will their electoral performance reveal about the mainstreaming of the far right?

Professor Yoav Peled: The major changes they have brought about are in the West Bank, where Smotrich has assumed responsibility for its administration as a minister within the Defense Ministry—not as defense minister, but as a minister in charge of the West Bank.

He’s pouring millions and millions of dollars into supporting what they call ranches, these settlement outposts. He has bought them many vehicles, the very vehicles they use to carry out these pogroms against the Palestinians. He also provides them with arms and money. More than a hundred additional ranches like these have been established since Smotrich joined the government.

So, the project of incorporating the West Bank into Israel and driving the Palestinians out has progressed tremendously, thanks especially to Smotrich. Ben-Gvir is more focused on that than anything else, although he has also completely corrupted the police. The police are now essentially his private militia.

But in terms of major policy areas, Smotrich has been very successful. By the way, he’s an effective administrator. Previously, when he was Minister of Transportation, he did very good things. He’s capable, and his capabilities are now directed toward completely transforming the situation in the West Bank.

October 7 Intensified Religious Nationalism

In The Religionization of Israeli Society, you examine the growing influence of religious nationalism within the military, education, and public culture. How has October 7 intensified the relationship between messianic beliefs, military authority, and perceptions of so-called legitimate violence? Could the upcoming elections further legitimize the intertwining of national security with religious understandings of territorial sovereignty and collective redemption?

Professor Yoav Peled: Yes, the short answer is yes. Everything you just said is exactly what’s happening, and it’s what will continue to happen as a result of next week’s elections. That’s exactly what’s going to happen.

The Anti-Netanyahu Protest Movement Died on October 7

Students and academics join a protest march in Haifa on September 9, 2023, against Israel’s controversial judicial overhaul. Photo: Dreamstime.

You argue that October 7 and the subsequent wars weakened the anti-Netanyahu protest movement. How have these events transformed Israeli attitudes toward existential insecurity, national solidarity, and political dissent? Ahead of the elections, have they strengthened exclusionary ethnonationalism, or could they generate renewed democratic opposition capable of reshaping the political landscape?

Professor Yoav Peled: Again, it’s the former. The anti-Netanyahu protest movement died on October 7. Many of its members—and this is interesting—turned to carrying out state functions because the state was immobilized. Netanyahu himself was in shock; he was hysterical and couldn’t function. The military was trying to get itself together, while many government functions simply stopped working. As a result, much of the protest movement, particularly its major elements, essentially took it upon themselves to run the country during the first weeks and months after October 7.

The movement’s entire orientation shifted from opposition to support. They did not say they were supporting Netanyahu, but in effect, they saved him. Without them, the malfunctioning of the entire state system might have brought Netanyahu down at that time. They saved him in that respect.

On the political level, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, who joined his government after October 7, also saved him politically. Both were former chiefs of the IDF General Staff. They knew how to run a war, while Bibi was totally disoriented. So, they saved him.

It’s ironic, but perhaps understandable, that the opposition saved Netanyahu, his government, and his regime when all circumstances pointed toward their downfall. Everybody expected that, including Netanyahu himself. Right after October 7, Smotrich said, “We’re not going to last more than two weeks now.” But with the help of the opposition forces, they survived, recovered, and became stronger. Unfortunately, it looks like they’re going to continue.

October 7 Ended Israeli-Jewish Empathy for Palestinians

Despite the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, much of the Israeli opposition focuses on Netanyahu’s security failures and institutional conduct rather than Palestinian rights. How do you explain this disconnect between opposition to Netanyahu and opposition to Israeli policies toward Palestinians? Has October 7 further marginalized anti-occupation politics and public concern for Palestinian suffering, and is there any indication that the upcoming elections could reverse this trend?

Professor Yoav Peled: Yes, October 7 completely ended any kind of empathy among Israeli Jews toward Palestinians in general, and particularly those in Gaza. People here either don’t know what happened in Gaza because they don’t want to know, don’t care about what happened, or are happy about it. So, it’s really a complete non-issue.

There are all the accusations of genocide and all the reports in the international media. Although the international media have not been granted access to the Gaza Strip, information and photographs nevertheless continue to emerge. What the whole world sees happening in Gaza, including Israel’s actions there, is either unknown to the Israeli-Jewish public, supported by them, or met with indifference.

Of course, this will not have any negative effect on the electoral prospects of Netanyahu’s coalition in the upcoming elections.

Israel Is Shifting Toward Majoritarian Democracy

Israelis protest in Tel Aviv against Netanyahu’s Judicial Coup in Israel. Photo: Avivi Aharon.

Your work with Gershon Shafir identifies competing liberal, republican, and ethnonational conceptions of Israeli citizenship. How can Israel’s Jewish national character be reconciled with democratic equality amid occupation, settlement expansion, and differentiated Palestinian rights? Are today’s contradictions inherent in the Zionist state-building project, or have religious-nationalist populists fundamentally intensified them? To what extent are these questions reflected in the current electoral debate?

Professor Yoav Peled: When Shafir and I wrote that book in the early 2000s, we were still under the impression of the Oslo peace process. At that point, we believed that Zionism could be reconciled with democracy. But events since then have proven us very wrong. As it turned out, the optimism we expressed in that book was completely unwarranted.

So, what you’re suggesting is correct. The idea of a Jewish state in which 20% of its citizens are Palestinian, while an entire Palestinian population lives under military occupation, with more and more atrocities and horrors being inflicted upon them—I don’t think this can be reconciled with democracy.

The process we’ve been witnessing since the current government came to power in January 2023, when it launched what it calls judicial reform—which is really a regime coup against the system that prevailed until then—represents primarily a shift from some kind of semi-liberal democracy toward majoritarian democracy. This involves paralyzing all the gatekeeping institutions, including the entire judicial system, especially the Supreme Court.

So, we’re really becoming less and less democratic, if by democracy you mean liberal democracy, which is what people usually mean when they use that term. We’re moving from a sort of semi-liberal democracy to a majoritarian democracy.

This is also something I wrote about with my colleague Doron Navot a good number of years ago. We identified this process back then, but October 7, of course, accelerated it a great deal.

The Two-State Solution Died with Rabin and Was Buried by Barak

You identify permanent Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank as the central objective of activist-Messianic Religious Zionism. Have settlement expansion and annexation-related policies rendered the two-state solution structurally unviable? If so, could equal citizenship, binationalism, or confederation offer a realistic alternative for reconciling Jewish and Palestinian self-determination? Do any significant political forces contesting the elections offer a credible alternative to the existing territorial status quo?

Professor Yoav Peled: As I said before, the two-state solution died in 2000. Since then, every discussion about it has been nothing but empty noise. The Americans kept talking about it, the Europeans kept talking about it, and some people in Israel kept talking about it, but it was all total nonsense. Actually, I would say, more accurately, that the two-state solution died with Rabin’s assassination and was buried by Barak in 2000. So, it’s really off the table.

Now, all the other alternatives you mentioned are completely unviable politically. There are no political forces in Israel that either want to or could bring about any of those solutions. What we’re heading toward is basically more of the same, with even harsher conditions for the Palestinians. I’m not talking only about Gaza, where it’s a total disaster, but also about the West Bank, as we’re seeing.

Of course, there will be more and more suppression of political dissent, even among Jewish Israeli citizens. Not that there is much dissent—there isn’t—but the little that exists will be increasingly suppressed as time goes on. Any remaining resemblance to a liberal democracy is going to be erased.

Opposition Parties May Join Netanyahu but Reject Palestinian Parties

Your scholarship demonstrates how formal citizenship can coexist with entrenched ethnonational inequality. What does the reluctance of major Zionist parties to depend on Palestinian Arab parties for governing coalitions reveal about the boundaries of Israeli democracy? Could the upcoming elections make Palestinian political representation decisive in coalition formation, and would greater participation transform these boundaries or merely reproduce existing inequalities?

Professor Yoav Peled: Three of the four opposition parties have declared that they will not cooperate with the Arab parties in the Knesset to form a government. In other words, they have effectively declared that they will not be able to form a government. Without the support of the Arab parties, which are expected to gain perhaps 13 to 15 of the 120 seats in the coming election, the opposition bloc will not be able to form a government. In effect, most of the opposition bloc, except for one party, has already said, “We’re not going to be able to form a government. We’ve given up that idea.” Of course, they speak as if this were not the case, but everybody can see the numbers.

Palestinian citizen political parties and Palestinian citizen political participation are already marginalized, and they will become increasingly marginalized and less meaningful as time goes by.

I actually expected—and I was wrong—that the two Palestinian political parties would be excluded from participating in these elections. In the end, only one person was excluded: the head of Balad, the political party founded by Azmi Bishara years ago. There was actually a friendly suggestion from the Chief Justice that he resign, and he did. The two parties were allowed to participate in these elections, but they will be totally insignificant because the opposition has already declared that it will not cooperate with them.

Now, you may say, as many people do, that what politicians say before elections does not necessarily mean they will act accordingly afterward. But I think—and I may be wrong; hopefully I am—that these opposition politicians will keep their word about not cooperating with the Palestinian parties.

However, I don’t think they will keep their word about refusing to cooperate with Netanyahu. Some of them may eventually join Netanyahu and enable him to form a government. This could very well happen. So, I don’t believe them when they say they will not sit with Netanyahu, but I do believe them when they say, “We’re not going to cooperate with the Palestinian parties.” Again, this is my prediction, and it could be wrong. Hopefully, it is wrong.

The Elections Could Further Weaken Liberal Institutions

Israelis protest in Tel Aviv, Israel on July 18, 2023, against Netanyahu’s anti-democratic coup as a bill to erase judicial ‘reasonableness clause’ is expected to pass despite 27,676 reservations. Photo: Avivi Aharon.

Your work on nationalist constitutionalism and ethno-national populism highlights the danger of Israel’s transformation into a hybrid regime. How far have Netanyahu’s judicial reforms and confrontations with independent institutions advanced democratic backsliding? Is the fundamental problem the erosion of institutional checks and balances, or the deeper contradiction between democracy and ethnonational sovereignty? Could the October elections meaningfully reverse these institutional developments?

Professor Yoav Peled: Again, the short answer is no. Given the currently predicted outcome, the elections would only reinforce the process of weakening the gatekeeping and liberal institutions that, in effect, limit democracy. After all, the whole idea of liberal democracy is majority rule constrained by individual and minority rights. These institutions, above all the judicial system, are intended to serve as checks on the power of the majority.

As these institutions are increasingly undermined, if Netanyahu wins, as I predict, they will be weakened even further. Consequently, the remaining elements of liberalism in Israeli democracy will become weaker and weaker. I think next week’s elections will only accelerate this process because, as I have said many times already, I predict that Netanyahu will emerge as the winner.

Palestinian Statehood Has Long Been Off the Table

Ahead of the October 27 elections, opposition figures such as Gadi Eisenkot emphasize institutional restoration and governmental integrity while remaining cautious about Palestinian statehood. Does this suggest a genuine ideological realignment or merely competition over who governs within an established Jewish-national security consensus? What would distinguish Netanyahu’s electoral defeat from a substantive transformation of Israeli politics?

Professor Yoav Peled: What would prevent Netanyahu’s electoral defeat from representing a substantive transformation is the fact that the opposition is not that different in terms of its broad political orientation. Palestinian statehood is off the table and has been for a long time. Any kind of peaceful arrangement with the Palestinians in the West Bank is also off the table. Gaza, of course, is a total disaster, but even in the West Bank, such an arrangement is not on the opposition’s agenda.

The only exception is one opposition party, the Democrats, which talks rather weakly about some kind of arrangement with the Palestinians. But they don’t emphasize it or make it a major issue.

So, basically, the political program of the opposition is to get rid of Netanyahu. What concerns them, and a very large part of the Israeli electorate, is not Netanyahu’s aggressiveness toward the Palestinians or Iran, which they mostly support. Sometimes, opposition figures even argue that he is not aggressive enough.

What concerns them, rightly so, is the corruption and incompetence of his government, which have reached unbelievable heights. Almost every corner of the state system you look at today is corrupt and dysfunctional. This is the main issue the opposition raises in these elections, rather than anything to do with relations with the Palestinians, the Arab world in general, or Iran.

Israeli Democracy Cannot Survive Without Addressing Palestinian Rights

And lastly, Professor Peled, your scholarship traces Israeli ethno-national populism to structural transformations extending beyond Netanyahu: the decline of Labor Zionism, Mizrahi political realignment, religious-nationalist hegemony, and stratified citizenship. Regardless of the October 27 election results, how much of this transformation is likely to endure? Can Israel develop a genuinely democratic alternative without fundamentally addressing Palestinian equality, sovereignty, and self-determination?

Professor Yoav Peled: Again, the short answer to your question is no, of course. Without addressing the Palestinian issue in the way, you just described—which is not going to happen—Israeli democracy cannot be sustained. The process of deterioration will continue because the Palestinian issue is not going to disappear, however much most Israeli Jews would like to ignore it, as all the major political parties do. It continues to undermine every attempt to restore even some elements of liberalism to the system.

So, we’re moving increasingly toward what I would call a religious-nationalist state, with more and more religion, greater suppression of Palestinians, including Palestinian citizens of Israel, and less and less tolerance of any kind of criticism, even from Jewish citizens.

Unfortunately, this is the direction we’re heading in, and the outcome of the upcoming elections will make this trajectory even clearer and more threatening.

PTI supporter at Jinnah Cricket Stadium during a political rally of cricketer turned politician Imran Khan on March 23, 2012 in Sialkot, Pakistan. Photo: Jahanzaib Naiyyer.

Leader-Centrism and Polarization: Tracing the Determinants of Youth Voting Behavior 

This Voice of Youth (VoY) piece examines the growing influence of leader-centrism, political polarization, and digital mobilization on youth voting behavior in Pakistan. Drawing on a survey of 200 students from two major public universities in Lahore, Hamza Wyne identifies a pronounced shift from institutional party platforms toward personalized political loyalties. Findings reveal that 73.5% of respondents voted primarily because of party leadership, while 72% assign responsibility for political accountability to party leaders. Meanwhile, 68% follow political parties through social media, highlighting the expanding influence of digital political engagement alongside traditional mobilization. Deep ideological divisions persist, particularly regarding religious parties, with 38.5% opposing and 26.5% supporting religiously aligned voting. Against Pakistan’s substantial youth demographic, the study raises critical questions about charismatic leadership, democratic accountability, ideological fragmentation, and the future of electoral politics.

By Hafiz Hamza Wyne*

Across South Asia, young voters are increasingly shaping the frontiers of democratic survival and political polarization. In Pakistan, where university students represent a hyper-engaged and volatile demographic, understanding what drives electoral choices is critical to predicting the country’s political trajectory. Focusing on the metropolitan hub of Punjab Province, this study analyzes the behavioral and political determinants of public sector university students in Lahore. 

The sites of the research are the public sector universities of Punjab, namely the University of the Punjab (PU) and Government College University (GCU). The two universities are among the big public sector universities of Lahore. About 200 respondents who voted in Pakistan’s general elections were included in this study. The survey method is used for this study due to its efficiency in collecting a broad range of data incorporating diverse responses. Data are gathered through a close-ended questionnaire, and a Likert scale is used to measure respondents’ attitudes based on the gathered data.

The findings reveal a stark reality: traditional party manifestos and institutional platforms are increasingly sidelined by a deeply personalized, leader-centric political culture. The youth potential in Pakistan is one of the highest, with 67% of Pakistan’s population under the age of 30. This translates into a voting pattern in which the number of young voters has drastically surged, making youth voters more important.

Prior research focuses on the social determinants of voting behavior in the province of Punjab, which were centered on rural and urban populations (Ahmad, 2012). It has failed to take into account a particular set of voters, namely university students, whom this piece intends to target and keenly analyze. This study focuses solely on students from two major government universities, with a focus on their beliefs and opinions, which stimulate them to vote for a particular political party.

Pakistan is a fragile democratic state. Since 1947, it has experienced three military takeovers, which show that it has a weak democracy. The stability of its political system depends on its massive youth bulge. Yet, a fundamental problem persists, while young citizens are mobilized, their engagement is taking place in an environment deeply polarized by narrative warfare. By analyzing how this student demographic processes electoral choices, we can observe whether higher education fosters institutional democratic stability or instead accelerates the personalization of political power. Political determinants are those factors that are politically motivated. In this study, the political determinants are electoral campaigns, party affiliation, and political ideology.

In a great part of Asia, caste or baradari (brotherhood), personality, and personal relations with candidates are the determinants of voting behavior (Akhter & Sheikh, 2014; Badshah et al., 2018). Of course, many voters still vote on an ideological basis. It could be religious, feminist, nationalist, socialist, or any other ideology. We have seen religious extremism not just in the form of pressure groups, but these groups are so strong that they are now forming governments in different countries, as we can see in India, the biggest democracy in the world (D’Ambrogio, 2014). 

Demographic Segments / Generation Z and Household Profiles of Urban Punjab: 70.5 percent of the sampled population falls directly within the 20-to-23 age range. Academic stratification across the sample spans from undergraduate BS tracks (90 percent) to advanced M.Phil (7 percent) and PhD levels (3 percent), reflecting a broad cross-spectrum consensus. Although the dataset includes representation from students native to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, and Azad Jammu and Kashmir, the majority—92 percent—reside in Punjab, ensuring the study’s high generalizability across the province.

The Mediatized Campaign / Digital Echo Chambers and Populist Rhetoric: Modern campaigns in Pakistan function as mediatized spheres. This study demonstrates that traditional public mobilization still retains weight; 54 percent of surveyed students follow political rallies to directly decide their votes, while 56.5 percent (combining the agree and strongly agree options) explicitly read and evaluate official party manifestos before casting their ballots. Over 56.5 percent of students declare a strong emotional affinity for specific party slogans (such as “Corruption ka Khatma (End of Corruption),” “Tabdeeli (Change),” or “Sher (Lion)”), proving that punchy, populist rhetoric plays a key role in youth movements. A whopping 68 percent of respondents actively followed their preferred political parties online.

Leader-Centrism, Ideological Rifts, and Accountability: In present times, people remain connected with their parties through social media and consume their party’s narrative. Our observations also assert the cardinal role that the party leader plays in increasing followership and garnering support for his own party. A large proportion, amounting to 73.5% of the students, had voted for a political party because of its leader. The leader, as a centralized figure, is reckoned to be an indispensable part of the political party. But youth loyalty is far from blind; it is highly conditional. A whole 72% of voters consider holding the party leadership accountable to be the responsibility of the leadership itself. 

Similarly, deep-seated ideological fragmentation exists. About 26.5% agree and 38.5% disagree when it comes to voting for a religious party. While a single leader can temporarily unite a youth movement under one banner, the urban youth demographic remains deeply fractured beneath the surface.

Conclusion

The findings suggest that youth voting behavior in Pakistan is increasingly shaped by charismatic leadership, digital engagement, and ideological polarization. While leader-centric politics dominates electoral choices, young voters also emphasize political accountability, indicating that their loyalty is not unconditional. The coexistence of personalized political allegiances, social media influence, and ideological divisions raises important questions about democratic consolidation. In sum, Pakistan’s democratic future will depend partly on whether its expanding youth electorate moves beyond charismatic leadership toward greater institutional accountability, substantive political engagement, and more inclusive democratic participation.


(*) Hafiz Hamza Wyne is a Pakistan-based empirical political researcher. His research focuses on youth political participation, electoral behavior, leader-centric politics, and political polarization, with particular emphasis on the dynamics of democratic engagement in Pakistan.


 

References 

Ahmad, M. (2012). “Voting behaviour in rural and urban areas of Punjab.” Journal of Political Studies, 14, 45-56.

Akhter, Z. & Sheikh, Y. A. (2014). “Determinants of voting behaviour in India: Theoretical perspective.” Public Policy Administration Research, 4(8), 104-108.

Badshah, L.; Rehman, A. U. & Muhammad, N. (2018). “Political determinants of voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.” Liberal Arts and Social Sciences International Journal, 2(1), 1-10.

D’Ambrogio, E. (2014). “India: The biggest democracy in the world.” European Parliamentary Research Service.

Professor Lucio Renno.

Prof. Rennó: Brazil Faces Unusual Democratic Backsliding Through Legislative Authoritarianism

As Brazil approaches its October 25 presidential runoff, Professor Lucio Rennó of the University of Brasília warns of an unusual trajectory of democratic backsliding driven primarily by Congress rather than the presidency. In this ECPS interview, Professor Rennó examines the institutionalization of Bolsonarismo, the consolidation of political polarization, and the persistence of authoritarian enclaves inherited from military rule. Drawing parallels with what scholars call legislative authoritarianism, he cautions that congressional power-grabbing could weaken the Supreme Court and institutions of horizontal accountability. As Professor Rennó observes, “We can identify elements of that same logic in Brazil.” Yet he also emphasizes democratic resilience, highlighting the role of civil society, judicial institutions, and political opposition in resisting institutional erosion and preserving constitutional democracy. 

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

As Brazil approaches the decisive October 25 presidential runoff, the country’s political trajectory raises questions extending far beyond the contest between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. In the October 4 first round, Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47.03 percent of the vote against Lula’s 45.16 percent, while the broader Bolsonarist camp strengthened its congressional presence. ForProfessor Lucio Rennó, Professor at the Political Science Institute of the University of Brasília, these developments illuminate not only the institutionalization of Bolsonarismo but also an unusual transformation in the mechanisms of Brazilian democratic backsliding.

In this wide-ranging interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Professor Rennó, whose research examines populism, authoritarian attitudes, electoral realignment, and democratic resilience, argues that Brazil is witnessing a distinctive concentration of political power. Unlike conventional patterns of democratic erosion, where executives progressively dismantle constitutional constraints, the Brazilian process is increasingly driven by the legislature. As he observes, “What we’re witnessing in Brazil today is a rather unusual process of democratic backsliding, in which power-grabbing and the centralization of power are occurring primarily within Congress rather than the executive branch.”

Drawing on The Crisis of Democracy in Brazil, co-authored with Leonardo Avritzer, Professor Rennó situates this development within the country’s enduring institutional vulnerabilities, particularly the “authoritarian enclaves” inherited from military rule. He identifies a Congress dominated by a pragmatic, clientelistic coalition with conservative policy orientations as a potential vehicle for weakening constitutional checks. Comparing this trajectory with developments in Peru, where scholars have identified legislative authoritarianism, Professor Rennó warns: “We can identify elements of that same logic in Brazil.”

The implications extend directly to judicial independence and horizontal accountability. Professor Rennó anticipates congressional efforts to restrict the Supreme Court’s authority and potentially weaken institutions such as the Public Prosecutor’s Office, the Federal Police, and the Tribunal de Contas. Under a Flávio Bolsonaro presidency, he cautions, executive-legislative alignment could accelerate these developments, weakening oversight institutions “primarily to the benefit of Congress rather than the presidency.”

Yet Professor Rennó’s analysis also emphasizes the resilience of Brazilian democracy. He underscores the constitutional role of the Supreme Court, the mobilizing capacity of civil society, and the potential resistance of the Workers’ Party and congressional opposition.

Ultimately, the interview situates these institutional struggles within a broader political realignment: the consolidation of Bolsonarismo and Petismo as competing national identities. As Professor Rennó explains, Brazil is witnessing “the construction of political identities that transcend politics and increasingly affect our daily lives.” The October runoff therefore represents not merely a presidential contest but a critical moment in the continuing struggle over institutional power, democratic accountability, and Brazil’s political future.

Here is our interview with Professor Lucio Rennó, edited lightly to enhance clarity, readability, and overall flow for publication.

Professor Adolph Reed.

Prof. Reed: The Structural Contradictions That Gave Rise to Trumpism Remain Unresolved

As the United States approaches the 2026 midterm elections, Professor Adolph Reed Jr. offers a critical political-economic interpretation of Trumpism, arguing that the structural contradictions underlying authoritarian nationalism remain fundamentally unresolved. In this wide-ranging interview with the ECPS, Professor Reed examines the tensions between capitalist accumulation and democratic legitimacy, challenges race-reductionist explanations of inequality, and critiques neoliberalism’s displacement of class-based politics. Warning that “the threat of another version of Trumpism will continue to be there,” he emphasizes the limitations of electoral mobilization without durable working-class organization. Drawing on his experience with the Bernie Sanders campaigns, Professor Reed advocates rebuilding solidaristic, universalist politics capable of confronting both economic inequality and authoritarianism through sustained political organization and democratic-socialist transformation.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

As the United States approaches the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, fundamental questions persist about the political-economic foundations of Trumpism, the durability of authoritarian nationalism, and the declining capacity of the American left to articulate a transformative alternative. In this wide-ranging interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Professor Adolph Reed Jr., Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania and Distinguished Visiting Professor of Politics at Mount Holyoke College, offers a historically grounded critique of Trumpism, neoliberalism, racial politics, and the erosion of working-class political organization.

One of the most distinctive voices in American political thought, Professor Reed challenges interpretations that privilege political personalities, demographic identities, or ideological labels over the structural contradictions of capitalist democracy. Rather than becoming preoccupied with whether Trumpism should be classified as populism or fascism, he emphasizes its political consequences and underlying material conditions. “Trumpism is clearly a form of authoritarianism,” he argues, while observing that it remains loosely aligned with authoritarian tendencies emerging across Europe and Latin America.

Crucially, Professor Reed cautions against assuming that Trump’s departure would eliminate the political forces associated with his presidency. “The structural contradictions aren’t going anywhere,” he insists, identifying the increasingly fraught relationship between capitalist accumulation and political legitimation as a defining tension within neoliberal democracies. Unless these contradictions are addressed through an alternative political vision capable of providing security and well-being, Professor Reed warns, “the threat of another version of Trumpism will continue to be there.”

The interview also explores Professor Reed’s longstanding critique of race-reductionist explanations of political behavior and inequality. Questioning the treatment of racial categories as coherent political constituencies, he argues that contemporary social science has been “more or less willfully making class and political economy disappear from our understanding of American politics.” His historically specific approach to racism and white supremacy challenges explanations that detach racial ideologies from material interests, institutional structures, and political mobilization.

Turning to democratic socialism, Professor Reed reflects on his involvement in both Bernie Sanders presidential campaigns and the organizational limitations that constrained their transformative potential. “You can’t elect your way to social transformation, at least not without an organizational base,” he observes. Despite these setbacks, he identifies growing skepticism toward capitalism among working people as evidence of changing political possibilities.

Ultimately, Professor Reed argues that confronting authoritarianism and neoliberalism requires sustained organizing beyond electoral cycles. His central message emphasizes the patient reconstruction of working-class solidarity, institutional capacity, and universalist politics. As he concludes, “You’ve got to be able to focus both on what needs to be done to stop the bleeding right now, to keep things from getting worse, and on where we’re trying to go in the long run.”

Here is our interview with Professor Adolph Reed, edited lightly to enhance clarity, readability, and overall flow for publication.

MEP Hanna Gedin.

MEP Gedin: The EU Is Losing Its Voice When It Comes to Upholding International Law

MEP Hanna Gedin argues that the EU’s credibility as a defender of democracy, human rights, and international law is being weakened by political double standards and the growing normalization of radical-right ideas. In this ECPS interview, she warns that “the EU is losing its voice when it comes to upholding international law” and points to inconsistencies in migration policy and relations with Israel and Turkey. Gedin also urges the European left not to adapt to the far right, but to build its own agenda around inequality, housing, energy, and the cost of living. “You need to have your own agenda,” she says, and to “make life a good life without adapting to the far right and their narrative.”

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

In this wide-ranging interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Hanna Gedin, Member of the European Parliament for Sweden’s Vänsterpartiet (Left Party, V) and Vice-Chair of The Left Group, reflects on Sweden’s post-election political deadlock, the normalization of radical-right ideas in European policymaking, the erosion of international law, and the strategic dilemmas facing the democratic left. Gedin, who works on the internal market, industry, energy, women’s rights, and gender equality, situates these questions within a broader critique of inequality, restrictive migration policy, and the weakening of Europe’s normative credibility. 

The interview begins with the struggle to translate Sweden’s new parliamentary majority into a viable center-left government. Gedin rejects the idea that Vänsterpartiet should once again support a government from outside, insisting that “if our votes are needed, if our mandates are needed, of course we should be in the government.” She argues that the Center Party (C) “needs to choose,” because “there is no middle way.” At the same time, she acknowledges the deep economic divide between the two parties but maintains that cooperation remains possible on issues ranging from feminism and climate to international law and support for communities outside major cities.

A central theme of Gedin’s remarks is the extent to which the radical right has reshaped mainstream political agendas. She argues that Swedish parties have been “adapting and moving closer to the Sweden Democrats,” while politics has increasingly shifted away from “bread and butter” concerns toward culture-war issues. For Gedin, the answer is not imitation but political differentiation: “For the left, it’s really important not to adapt.” Instead, she insists, “You need to have your own agenda,” centered on the cost of living, inequality, housing, and material security.

This concern extends to migration policy at both Swedish and European levels. Gedin describes a “shift and an adaptation to the radical right” in EU migration politics and recalls far right and right-wing MEPs cheering “Send them back, send them back” during a vote on return hubs. Yet she also points to Sweden’s debate over teenage deportations as evidence that public attitudes can shift when abstract migration categories acquire “names and faces.”   

The interview’s sharpest normative critique concerns international law. Gedin argues that “the EU is losing its voice when it comes to upholding international law” and warns of “a complete erosion of international law” driven by double standards. She contrasts the EU’s firm response to Russia’s war against Ukraine with what she sees as a much weaker approach toward Israel, arguing that such inconsistency undermines European credibility globally.    

Ultimately, Gedin presents a distinctly materialist response to the rise of the far right. She argues that the left must make politics concrete: reduce inequality, address rents and energy costs, tax the very rich, and “make life a good life without adapting to the far right and their narrative.”

Here is our interview with MEP Hanna Gedin, edited lightly to enhance clarity, readability, and overall flow for publication.

Professor Lucio Rennó.

Prof. Rennó: Brazil Faces Unusual Democratic Backsliding Through Legislative Authoritarianism

As Brazil approaches its October 25 presidential runoff, Professor Lucio Rennó of the University of Brasília warns of an unusual trajectory of democratic backsliding driven primarily by Congress rather than the presidency. In this ECPS interview, Professor Rennó examines the institutionalization of Bolsonarismo, the consolidation of political polarization, and the persistence of authoritarian enclaves inherited from military rule. Drawing parallels with what scholars call legislative authoritarianism, he cautions that congressional power-grabbing could weaken the Supreme Court and institutions of horizontal accountability. As Professor Rennó observes, “We can identify elements of that same logic in Brazil.” Yet he also emphasizes democratic resilience, highlighting the role of civil society, judicial institutions, and political opposition in resisting institutional erosion and preserving constitutional democracy. 

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

As Brazil approaches the decisive October 25 presidential runoff, the country’s political trajectory raises questions extending far beyond the contest between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro. In the October 4 first round, Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47.03 percent of the vote against Lula’s 45.16 percent, while the broader Bolsonarist camp strengthened its congressional presence. ForProfessor Lucio Rennó, Professor at the Political Science Institute of the University of Brasília, these developments illuminate not only the institutionalization of Bolsonarismo but also an unusual transformation in the mechanisms of Brazilian democratic backsliding.

In this wide-ranging interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Professor Rennó, whose research examines populism, authoritarian attitudes, electoral realignment, and democratic resilience, argues that Brazil is witnessing a distinctive concentration of political power. Unlike conventional patterns of democratic erosion, where executives progressively dismantle constitutional constraints, the Brazilian process is increasingly driven by the legislature. As he observes, “What we’re witnessing in Brazil today is a rather unusual process of democratic backsliding, in which power-grabbing and the centralization of power are occurring primarily within Congress rather than the executive branch.”

Drawing on The Crisis of Democracy in Brazil, co-authored with Leonardo Avritzer, Professor Rennó situates this development within the country’s enduring institutional vulnerabilities, particularly the “authoritarian enclaves” inherited from military rule. He identifies a Congress dominated by a pragmatic, clientelistic coalition with conservative policy orientations as a potential vehicle for weakening constitutional checks. Comparing this trajectory with developments in Peru, where scholars have identified legislative authoritarianism, Professor Rennó warns: “We can identify elements of that same logic in Brazil.”

The implications extend directly to judicial independence and horizontal accountability. Professor Rennó anticipates congressional efforts to restrict the Supreme Court’s authority and potentially weaken institutions such as the Public Prosecutor’s Office, the Federal Police, and the Tribunal de Contas. Under a Flávio Bolsonaro presidency, he cautions, executive-legislative alignment could accelerate these developments, weakening oversight institutions “primarily to the benefit of Congress rather than the presidency.”

Yet Professor Rennó’s analysis also emphasizes the resilience of Brazilian democracy. He underscores the constitutional role of the Supreme Court, the mobilizing capacity of civil society, and the potential resistance of the Workers’ Party and congressional opposition.

Ultimately, the interview situates these institutional struggles within a broader political realignment: the consolidation of Bolsonarismo and Petismo as competing national identities. As Professor Rennó explains, Brazil is witnessing “the construction of political identities that transcend politics and increasingly affect our daily lives.” The October runoff therefore represents not merely a presidential contest but a critical moment in the continuing struggle over institutional power, democratic accountability, and Brazil’s political future.

Here is our interview with Professor Lucio Rennó, edited lightly to enhance clarity, readability, and overall flow for publication.

Bolsonarismo’s Strength Now Extends Beyond Jair Bolsonaro Himself

Then Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro attends the 74th Anniversary of the Parachutist Infantry Battalion at the Military Village in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on November 23, 2019. Photo: Celso Pupo Rodrigues.

Professor Rennó, welcome, and thank you for joining us. Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula with 47 percent, and the broader Bolsonarist camp also advanced in Congress in the October 4 elections. Does this result confirm your earlier argument that Bolsonarismo has become a durable political alignment rather than a phenomenon dependent on Jair Bolsonaro personally?

Professor Lucio Rennó: Yes, this election is a very important historical event in the sense that it consolidates Bolsonarismo’s strength beyond Jair Bolsonaro himself. What we have been witnessing in Brazil since 2022 is the institutionalization of Bolsonarismo. What was basically a charismatic, leadership-driven alignment with Bolsonaro, based on policy positions on certain issues, has become institutionalized within the framework of a political party, Brazil’s Liberal Party (PL).

The party performed very well in the 2024 municipal elections and has since nationalized the narrative of Bolsonarismo, consolidated it across different regions of the country, and established an organizational structure for the movement that was absent during Bolsonaro’s term in office following his victory in the 2018 elections.

He actually remained without a party until almost the end of his mandate, joining the PL only when he was preparing to run in 2022. Since then, what we have witnessed is this interesting process of an individual leadership becoming institutionalized within the framework of a political party, giving its political agenda much greater reach and scope.

Flávio Bolsonaro and the Continuity of the Bolsonarist Coalition

You have described Bolsonarismo as a multidimensional ideological alignment combining cultural conservatism, punitive politics, economic liberalism, and anti-PT sentiment. Does Flávio Bolsonaro’s performance suggest that this coalition has now survived a successful leadership succession?

Professor Lucio Rennó: Yes, I would say that Flávio Bolsonaro now demonstrates that the movement itself and its multidimensional agenda resonate strongly with significant portions of the Brazilian electorate. Bolsonarismo would not be what it is if it did not reflect the mass attitudes, grievances, and cleavages that characterize Brazilian society today.

A significant portion of the electorate embraces this set of policy positions, if not yet concrete policy proposals, in line with what you have highlighted in your question. These positions are becoming, as I have said, part of the PL’s political platform. So, these issues are at the heart of Bolsonarismo’s continuity beyond Jair Bolsonaro.

Now, obviously, we have to wait for the results of the second round of the election, which is coming up in about 10 days, to see, first, whether Flávio will succeed in winning the election and, if he does, what that would mean for Jair Bolsonaro himself, who will probably be freed and pardoned following his conviction for participation in a coup d’état in Brazil. We also need to understand what Jair Bolsonaro’s return to the Brazilian political scene would mean for Flávio Bolsonaro’s government.

That remains a mystery. We still need to determine whether we are actually witnessing Bolsonarismo beyond Jair Bolsonaro or, potentially, the return of Jair Bolsonaro to the center of Brazil’s political agenda and the far right.

From Charismatic Leadership to Institutionalized Ideological Alignment

Flávio Bolsonaro.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro during a pro-amnesty demonstration in support of former President Jair Bolsonaro in Copacabana, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, March 16, 2025. Photo: Saulo Angelo | Dreamstime.

Your research identified a “Bolsonaro effect,” whereby voters did not merely select a candidate matching their prior beliefs but moved ideologically toward Bolsonaro during the campaign. Are we seeing a similar process around Flávio Bolsonaro, or is he mainly inheriting an already consolidated ideological constituency?

Professor Lucio Rennó: That ideological shift was largely the result of Jair Bolsonaro’s leadership. What we’re seeing now is the consolidation of this movement around these policy issues, as well as the affective elements of politics that initially helped construct a significant social movement around Bolsonaro, or even a political and electoral alignment centered on him.

This alignment is now evolving into a more consolidated and institutionalized set of policy proposals that, given the results of the legislative elections and the configuration of Congress over the next four years, are very likely to bring significant policy changes in Brazil, as well as changes to institutional design, particularly regarding the Supreme Court.

So, what we’re witnessing is a significant process of consolidation and institutionalization, whereby what initially resembled a social movement or a political alignment built around a charismatic leader is becoming more deeply ingrained in the country’s political framework, strengthening the presidential far right.

Bolsonarismo Is Becoming Hegemonic on the Right

Does the first-round result represent the normalization of the Brazilian far right, in the sense that Bolsonarismo is no longer an insurgent challenge to the party system but one of its principal organizing poles?

Professor Lucio Rennó: I agree with that. Bolsonarismo is becoming hegemonic on the right. Just as the PT, the Workers’ Party, is hegemonic on the left in Brazil, the PL and Bolsonarismo are moving toward a similarly hegemonic position on the right. Since 2018, we haven’t seen any possibility of a resurgence of the moderate right in Brazil.

So, basically, there’s no third way in the country beyond Petismo and Bolsonarismo, beyond the PT and the PL. This election demonstrates that very clearly, as the results were dominated by strong polarization between Bolsonarismo and Petismo. All the other candidates who attempted to enter this space, especially on the right, failed, receiving very little support at the ballot box. So, the votes are concentrated in Bolsonarismo. This represents a hegemonic shift on the right through the consolidation and institutionalization of partizan Bolsonarismo.

The Supreme Court Was the Big Loser in This Electoral Process

Your work argues that Bolsonarismo combines issue-based conservatism with anti-democratic attitudes. How should we interpret the fact that this political identity remains electorally powerful after Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction and the January 8 crisis?

Professor Lucio Rennó: What we have seen among Bolsonarista supporters is essentially a denial of Bolsonaro’s guilt. We have conducted research using surveys and public opinion polls that clearly show that core Bolsonaristas reject the idea that Bolsonaro is guilty. Instead, they see him as a victim of a witch hunt. The narrative that Bolsonaro is being persecuted, or that the system, whatever that means, is unjustly trying to damage his image, has become widely accepted among his core supporters. He has therefore remained politically significant because his followers have embraced the narrative that he is a victim of persecution for confronting the system.

Consequently, the Supreme Court became Bolsonaro’s principal enemy. After Bolsonaro won the presidency in 2018 and took office in 2019, he shifted his focus. This is important for understanding the construction of the populist narrative around Bolsonaro, particularly the “us against them” idea that drives populist rhetoric. The Supreme Court became the enemy.

What this election demonstrated, especially in the legislative arena and particularly in the Senate, is that Bolsonarismo defeated the Supreme Court electorally. Oddly enough, the Supreme Court was the big loser in this electoral process in Brazil. The Senate elections were framed around the narrative that the Supreme Court was corrupt and had unjustly tried to impute guilt to Bolsonaro, who, according to this narrative, was innocent of all accusations. This narrative prevailed among Bolsonaristas and prevented any alternative leadership from emerging.

It is particularly interesting to see how Bolsonarismo was able to consolidate around Flávio Bolsonaro rather than an alternative leader, such as the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas. There was competition over who would become the next Bolsonarista leader, and it is remarkable that Flávio Bolsonaro prevailed despite the support Tarcísio received from Brazil’s financial sector and the major businesses and conglomerates of São Paulo. Flávio was ultimately successful because the Bolsonaro name remains so powerful in Brazilian politics today.

So, I would say that the election also confirmed the electoral strength of the Bolsonarista narrative. By positioning the Supreme Court as an enemy, this narrative significantly facilitated the electoral victories of several Senate candidates, including Michelle Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, who was elected senator for Brazil’s Federal District.

Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal – STF) at night, Brasília, Federal District, Brazil, August 26, 2018. Photo: Diego Grandi.

Brazil Is Divided Along Demographic, Socioeconomic, and Geographical Lines

Lulism remains strongest among lower-income voters, social-policy beneficiaries, Catholics, women, and the Northeast, while Bolsonarism performs strongly among evangelicals, wealthier voters, and parts of the South and Southeast. Is the runoff becoming a contest between two increasingly consolidated social blocs rather than merely two candidates?

Professor Lucio Rennó: Yes, I agree. There is an increasing perception that ideological and policy positions, as well as affective and emotional attachments to Bolsonarismo on the one hand and Petismo on the other, are now dividing the nation along social lines.

What we have today is a country divided along demographic, socioeconomic, and geographical lines. If we look at religion, the data have shown that it is a very important factor behind Bolsonarismo, both directly and indirectly. Evangelicals are more likely to vote for and support Bolsonaro. Religion also plays an indirect role in shaping social attitudes that align with Bolsonaro’s positions, particularly on gender politics and LGBTQI+ issues. There is considerable convergence between religious views and these policy positions among Bolsonaro supporters.

We also see divisions along socioeconomic and demographic lines: wealthier white men are more likely to support Bolsonaro and Bolsonarismo than Black Brazilians and poorer citizens, who are less likely to support the movement.

When we examine the geographical distribution of these populations, the northeastern region of Brazil is much more strongly associated with Lula and the Workers’ Party, while the South and Center-West are much more closely aligned with Bolsonarismo.

So, we see a country divided not only territorially but also along social lines. This adds another layer to the consolidation of Bolsonarismo, rooted in belonging to different social groups.

Brazil Is Now Facing a Highly Conservative Congress

Your research on the Bolsonaro voter found that cultural backlash, law-and-order preferences, economic liberalism, and rejection of redistributive policies all mattered alongside anti-PT sentiment. Which of these dimensions now appears most important to Flávio Bolsonaro’s coalition?

Professor Lucio Rennó: When we look at the convergence between presidential and congressional elections, as well as the population’s issue-based or cognitive alignment with Bolsonarismo, particularly regarding political and policy positions, it becomes clear that we are now facing a highly conservative Congress.

When we examine Bolsonarismo, or the Bolsonaro coalition, if we can call it that, a significant component is ideologically oriented and strongly embraces this policy platform, which we should understand in a broad sense. It is not always defined in terms of specific policy proposals. In some cases, it is, but in others, it reflects a more general political orientation.

What we see ahead is a very conservative Congress, particularly on public security issues. Penal punitivism is going to be at the top of Congress’s agenda during its next mandate because of the conservative turn we have witnessed in the legislative elections, even more so if Flávio Bolsonaro is elected president.

We should therefore expect significant changes in this area, along with the resurgence of anti-democratic beliefs and attitudes concerning the pardoning of Jair Bolsonaro for the crimes of which he was convicted, as well as the pardoning of those who participated in the invasion of the buildings at Three Powers Square in Brasília on January 8.

There will also be a significant attempt to weaken the Supreme Court institutionally, which would affect the balance of powers in Brazil and, consequently, the very essence of horizontal accountability and democracy.

With the support of Congress, these different dimensions of Bolsonarismo are now much more likely to translate into concrete policies and institutional changes than they were during Jair Bolsonaro’s term in office.

Penal Punitivism and the Politics of Public Security

Crime and insecurity have been central to this election, and Flávio Bolsonaro has emphasized punitive policies. Does the continued salience of law-and-order politics show that punitive conservatism remains one of Bolsonarismo’s most durable ideological foundations?

Professor Lucio Rennó: Absolutely. I completely agree with that. This is one of the key issues in this election. While the rejection of the Supreme Court was very important in the legislative elections, public security issues and how to address them remain central to the Bolsonarista agenda. I would also add a certain disappointment with the performance of the economy as another important issue, but we can discuss that later.

Let’s focus on the issue of penal punitivism that you mentioned. Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign narrative and rhetoric have emphasized a very harsh approach to crime, presenting increased punishment as a solution to criminality in Brazil. As we say in Brazil, “a good criminal is a dead criminal.” This is a claim with which a significant portion of the population agrees, and it is central to Flávio Bolsonaro’s position on public security policy.

It’s a very violent position, centered on combating crime and imposing harsh punishment on criminals, with very little discussion about how to address the financing of crime or human rights. These issues have become much more closely associated with the Workers’ Party’s position, or Lula da Silva’s position, on crime. But for most of the population, penal punitivist rhetoric is much more enticing and resonates more closely with their daily lives than the alternative. That’s why Flávio Bolsonaro has centered so much of his campaign narrative on this particular issue.

The Brazilian Population Is No Longer Satisfied with Its Living Condition

Photo: Shutterstock.

By contrast, Lula has again mobilized around Bolsa Família, income protection, and social inclusion. Does the runoff therefore revive the older cleavage between Lulist redistribution and Bolsonarist individual responsibility, or has that divide been overtaken by cultural polarization?

Professor Lucio Rennó: No, Lula da Silva’s initial approach, the way he organized his government, and the outcomes he sought to achieve were closely linked to improving the material conditions of the Brazilian population. He campaigned vigorously in the 2022 elections, criticizing Bolsonaro for his anti-democratic positions and his conduct during the pandemic, but also promising economic improvement. This remained an important issue in this year’s election.

The PT invested heavily in reducing inflation, increasing employment, and raising incomes, but perhaps without paying sufficient attention to other aspects of the Brazilian economy, particularly the profound levels of debt that significant portions of the population face today. This ultimately contributed to a sense of economic dissatisfaction in this year’s election.

I don’t think the Brazilian population is satisfied with its living conditions anymore, which is why this has been such a difficult election for the incumbent. Living conditions have deteriorated in Brazil over the past 10–15 years, and the overall public mood is very negative. That is always difficult for an incumbent to address.

Although the Workers’ Party and Lula’s government attempted to improve economic conditions and, consequently, the population’s living standards, the situation he inherited was so difficult that recovery has been challenging. Economic growth has not been particularly strong. Inflation is under control, unemployment is low, and incomes have increased, but not as much as the population needed. As a result, purchasing power remains a problem for Brazilians.

The general perception is that Lula has not delivered on his promise to improve material conditions, particularly for Brazil’s poorer population. This dissatisfaction and frustration with living conditions and the overall state of the economy have also worked against Lula.

So, the combination of the penal punitivist narrative and the government’s relatively weak economic performance also favored Flávio Bolsonaro in the election. The PT is now attempting several last-minute policy changes to see whether it can reverse some of these significant problems, including the high levels of household debt in Brazil.

The Resilience of Bolsa Família Under a Bolsonaro Government

Your work on Bolsa Família stresses the resilience of social policy even across changes of government. If Flávio Bolsonaro wins, how much institutional room would he actually have to retrench Brazil’s welfare architecture, given bureaucratic capacity, policy feedback, and electoral dependence on social benefits?

Professor Lucio Rennó: Jair Bolsonaro attempted to rebrand the Bolsa Família program during his last year in government. Bolsonarismo has always maintained an ambivalent position toward conditional cash transfer programs. Its supporters criticized these programs in the past, and once in power, they shifted their focus toward finding exit doors from the program rather than expanding coverage and increasing benefits. They also reduced some of the conditionalities.

We should expect the program to continue under a Flávio Bolsonaro government. Previous attempts to change it significantly failed, partly because rebranding Bolsa Família did not produce substantial electoral returns. However, they will certainly try to re-establish the narrative that the government should seek exit doors from Bolsa Família. This approach would likely return under a new Bolsonaro administration led by Flávio.

So, we should expect changes to Bolsa Família, but not its termination or complete disruption. The program clearly continues to provide significant resources to families who would otherwise lack access to this money. It therefore remains a very important source of support for a substantial portion of the Brazilian population.

The political risk of substantially changing Bolsa Família is very high for anyone attempting to reform the program. It should therefore be maintained. It is difficult to say whether they will try to change its name again and claim credit for it, but we should not expect the program to be terminated altogether.

Democratic Backsliding and Legislative Authoritarianism

Brazilian National Congress at sunset. Brasília, Federal District, Brazil, August 26, 2018. Photo: Diego Grandi / Dreamstime.

In The Crisis of Democracy in Brazil, you and Leonardo Avritzer argue that Bolsonaro activated pre-existing institutional vulnerabilities rather than creating them from scratch. Does Flávio Bolsonaro’s rise suggest that those vulnerabilities remain politically exploitable despite the democratic resistance of 2022–23?

Professor Lucio Rennó: The structural components of the Brazilian political system that led us to a significant crisis of democracy, culminating in the January 8 attacks, are still present. Our institutional framework still contains significant elements inherited from the previous military dictatorship. In the book, we refer to these as authoritarian enclaves: institutional features embedded in the Constitution and in the functioning of executive-legislative and civil-military relations. These remain sources of conflict within the country and represent unresolved dilemmas that we have yet to overcome.

There have been attempts at institutional change to address some of these enclaves, but I don’t think they are helping to strengthen democracy. In fact, they may be counterproductive. What we’re witnessing in Brazil today is a rather unusual process of democratic backsliding, in which power-grabbing and the centralization of power are occurring primarily within Congress rather than the executive branch. This differs from the traditional pattern of democratic backsliding, characterized by the concentration of power in the executive branch and the weakening of checks on executive authority, something we’re seeing elsewhere in the world.

In Brazil, however, we are witnessing the centralization of power within Congress, which is controlled by a highly pragmatic, clientelistic coalition with strong inclinations toward a conservative policy agenda. This represents a different process, although it has parallels with what has happened in Peru, for instance, where some analysts have described the phenomenon as legislative authoritarianism. We can identify elements of that same logic in Brazil.

The military situation also remains unresolved. Military prerogatives persist regarding benefits, salaries, and influence over defense policy, as well as the possibility of military intervention to address civilian problems through the so-called Garantia da Lei e da Ordem (Guarantee of Law and Order, GLO) mechanism, which is embedded in the Brazilian Constitution.

Several of the issues we identify in the book therefore remain unresolved and constitutionally embedded. What may happen in the future is a further strengthening of this process of power-grabbing by Congress and the highly clientelistic, pragmatic, conservative coalition that controls it.

So, if Lula wins the second round of the election, he will face considerable difficulties governing the country, both because of the existing balance of power between the executive and legislative branches and because of the very conservative composition of Congress following the 2026 election.

Congressional Power and the Future of the Supreme Court

You also argue that Brazil’s judiciary became both a source of political conflict and a crucial defender of democracy. If a new Bolsonaro presidency again confronts the Supreme Court, could Brazil enter a renewed cycle of populist conflict between electoral authorization and constitutional restraint?

Professor Lucio Rennó: Yes, this is at the top of Brazil’s reform agenda today, particularly with the new Congress coming into power. Regardless of whether Flávio Bolsonaro or Lula wins, I believe Congress itself will push a strong agenda to reform the Supreme Court, alter the monocratic powers of its justices, and establish greater limitations on what the Court can decide. This is a clear consequence of the results of the Senate and Chamber of Deputies elections in Brazil.

Even if Lula remains in power, Congress will pursue this agenda because it has become so empowered over the past 10 years that it is now the key lawmaking actor in Brazil. I expect some resistance from the Supreme Court and, if Lula holds the presidency, from the executive branch as well. However, if Flávio Bolsonaro wins, this agenda will receive full presidential support.

What we could potentially see under a Flávio Bolsonaro presidency is an alignment between Congress and the executive branch aimed at further weakening the judiciary and institutions of horizontal accountability in Brazil, such as the Public Prosecutor’s Office, the Federal Police, and the Tribunal de Contas, which is responsible for overseeing public accounts. We would therefore be looking at a situation in which these institutions of horizontal accountability are weakened primarily to the benefit of Congress rather than the presidency.

The Supreme Court Became the Primary Target for Retaliation

Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged amnesty for his father and for participants in the January 8 attacks. Should this be read mainly as family loyalty, as movement maintenance, or as a broader populist attempt to redefine accountability as political persecution?

Professor Lucio Rennó: Yes, it has a deeper meaning, as you have suggested. The Bolsonarista narrative all along has been that Jair Bolsonaro has been treated unfairly because of his defiance of the establishment. The Supreme Court, as a representative of this establishment, became Bolsonaro’s and Bolsonarismo’s principal foe, their most important enemy, and the primary target for retaliation.

That is what we should expect. If Flávio wins, we will see Jair Bolsonaro pardoned. Even if Flávio does not win, there is a significant chance that Congress will approve amnesty for Bolsonaro and all those who attacked democratic institutions during the January 8 events.

So, we should expect considerable tension between Congress and the Supreme Court. Depending on who wins the presidency, these attacks against the Supreme Court could receive strong presidential support. If Flávio wins, Jair Bolsonaro will certainly be free by January 2. The same applies to his brother, Eduardo Bolsonaro, who has also recently been convicted of crimes and would likewise be pardoned. We will therefore see clear attempts to challenge legal decisions made under the democratic order. That, in itself, represents an attack on Brazil’s democratic order.

Brazilian Democracy Has Demonstrated Its Resilience

Protesters protest for the freedom of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Avenida Paulista in São Paulo, Brazil on April 7, 2019. Photo: Cris Faga.

Donald Trump’s second presidency has involved renewed efforts to expand executive authority, reshape federal agencies, challenge institutional constraints, and pursue political adversaries. If Flávio Bolsonaro wins, is the relevant Brazilian risk imitation of Trump’s second-term strategy—or would Brazil’s stronger congressional and judicial constraints produce a fundamentally different trajectory?

Professor Lucio Rennó: Up until now, Brazilian democracy has demonstrated its resilience. Lula’s victory was important in this regard, as was the organization of the opposition to Jair Bolsonaro. Civil society has also played an important role, while the Supreme Court has been particularly significant in safeguarding basic constitutional rights and the rule of law in the country.

A return of Bolsonarismo to the presidency, in an environment where Congress is highly favorable to the movement, would pose a serious threat of substantial institutional change. As I mentioned earlier, this could involve weakening oversight institutions and the judiciary, which remain among the last forms of institutional resistance to democratic retrenchment in Brazil.

However, we should not underestimate the role of the opposition in Congress, led by the Workers’ Party as the hegemonic force on the left. We have already begun to see a reaction to Flávio Bolsonaro from the opposition. This past weekend, substantial popular movements and demonstrations in support of Lula and against Bolsonaro took place in the streets of almost all Brazil’s major cities.

The left has also begun to restructure and reorient itself to confront the rise of the extreme right, reflected in the electoral victories of the PL and Bolsonarismo. We should therefore expect resistance from the opposition, just as we witnessed in the period leading up to the 2022 election. The role of the opposition and the left proved fundamental to Jair Bolsonaro’s first defeat.

The election is still open in Brazil. We need to examine the latest polls coming out today and tomorrow to assess whether Lula still has a chance of winning the second round. Regardless of the outcome, the opposition, particularly the left and the Workers’ Party, is already beginning to organize itself as a force of resilience and resistance to shifts in the policy and institutional agenda in Congress.

We should therefore expect a significant struggle within Congress, with the opposition seeking to delay or obstruct decisions that advance this more conservative agenda. Nor should we underestimate the Workers’ Party’s ability to mobilize civil society to remain vigilant and critical of these changes. We have seen this in the past, and we should expect it again if Flávio wins the upcoming second round.

Even leaving the presidential outcome aside, we should expect the congressional minority, composed largely of the Workers’ Party, to demonstrate considerable resilience in resisting institutional and policy changes.

Brazil’s Emerging Two-Bloc Political System

And finally, Professor Rennó, looking toward October 25, is the deeper significance of this runoff simply whether Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro wins—or whether Brazil is consolidating a new party system structured around two durable political identities, Lulism and Bolsonarismo, each offering a competing conception of “the people,” the state, and democracy itself?

Professor Lucio Rennó: These elections are historic in the sense that they consolidate two national political alternatives, leaving very little room for a third way to emerge in presidential elections. We have to bear in mind that Brazil is a multiparty system, with a significant number of effective parties in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, giving it a distinct political dynamic compared with, for instance, the United States. In part, Congress is so powerful in Brazil precisely because of our multiparty structure and the way our party system is organized.

What this election demonstrates, and what the 2024 municipal elections had already begun to reveal, is the nationalization of political polarization in Brazil. This polarization has become dominant in the current election, particularly with the growth of the PL, but also with the significant results achieved by the Workers’ Party, especially in the Chamber of Deputies. The party increased its representation in the Chamber and further consolidated its position as the most important political force on the left.

So, this election is symbolic for Brazil because it demonstrates how the country has become polarized between two political forces representing distinct ideological and policy positions. These forces are also dividing the country along emerging political identities that did not previously exist in this form.

This is particularly important because we are now witnessing the construction of political identities that transcend politics and increasingly affect our daily lives. We see something similar in the United States, where Democrats and Republicans often do not mingle socially. We are beginning to see the same phenomenon in Brazil, and these divisions are becoming even stronger in the current election. 

MEP Brando Benifei.

MEP Benifei: An Alliance of Interests Between the Extreme Right and Techno-Oligarchs Threatens Our Democracies

MEP Brando Benifei warns that Europe’s struggle for technological sovereignty is inseparable from the defense of democracy. In this ECPS interview, he argues that the EU must strengthen its technological capacity while preserving its regulatory autonomy against external pressure and concentrated corporate power. Benifei stresses that “regulations are decided in Europe, by Europeans, for Europeans” and warns that the extreme right has moved closer to “techno-oligarchs,” forging “a form of alliance and mutual support.” He describes this convergence as “an alliance of interests that is threatening our democracies.” Beyond regulation, Benifei calls for “a democratic reaction” and a “new social contract” capable of making European societies “more equal and freer.”

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

In an era in which technological power, geopolitical rivalry, and democratic vulnerability are increasingly intertwined, the European Union faces a double challenge: strengthening its strategic autonomy while defending the institutional and normative foundations of liberal democracy. Few policy areas illustrate this convergence more clearly than artificial intelligence, digital regulation, platform governance, and transatlantic relations. In this wide-ranging interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), MEP Brando Benifei, Chair of the European Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with the United States and a central parliamentary figure in the development of the EU Artificial Intelligence Act, reflects on Europe’s technological dependencies, regulatory sovereignty, Big Tech power, disinformation, and the growing political relationship between digital oligarchies and the popuplist radical right.    

At the center of Benifei’s analysis is the argument that Europe’s struggle for sovereignty cannot be reduced to economic competitiveness or technological capacity alone. It also concerns who has the power to establish the rules governing digital societies. He insists that Europe must develop its own technological capabilities while preserving its regulatory autonomy, arguing that “regulations are decided in Europe, by Europeans, for Europeans” and describing this principle as “an absolute red line.” At the same time, he warns that Europe cannot remain merely a regulatory power without developing the technological infrastructure necessary to sustain that role. As he puts it, the EU “can’t remain a regulatory reference if it doesn’t also develop the technological power that is needed today.”    

The interview becomes particularly significant when Benifei turns to the political consequences of concentrated technological power. He argues that the rise of the extreme right is increasingly connected to powerful actors within the technology sector. “The extreme right has been getting closer and closer to these techno-oligarchs,” he says, adding that they have “forged a form of alliance and mutual support.” For Benifei, this convergence now constitutes “an alliance of interests that is threatening our democracies.”    

His response is not limited to regulation. Benifei calls for what he describes as “a democratic reaction” and “the proposal of a new social contract” capable of making societies “more equal and freer.” In his account, inequality and declining freedoms can provide “fertile ground” for an alliance between the extreme right and techno-oligarchs and for what he characterizes as a “hateful and democracy-demolishing approach.”

Against this backdrop, the conversation explores the broader implications of AI governance, algorithmic amplification, digital enforcement, disinformation, transatlantic pressure, and European sovereignty. Benifei’s remarks ultimately frame the contemporary digital struggle not merely as a debate over innovation or regulation, but as a deeper contest over democratic authority, economic power, and the institutional capacity of Europe to determine its own political and technological future.

Here is our interview with MEP Brando Benifei, edited lightly to enhance clarity, readability, and overall flow for publication.

Professor Adolph Reed Jr.

Prof. Reed: The Structural Contradictions That Gave Rise to Trumpism Remain Unresolved

As the United States approaches the 2026 midterm elections, Professor Adolph Reed Jr. offers a critical political-economic interpretation of Trumpism, arguing that the structural contradictions underlying authoritarian nationalism remain fundamentally unresolved. In this wide-ranging interview with the ECPS, Professor Reed examines the tensions between capitalist accumulation and democratic legitimacy, challenges race-reductionist explanations of inequality, and critiques neoliberalism’s displacement of class-based politics. Warning that “the threat of another version of Trumpism will continue to be there,” he emphasizes the limitations of electoral mobilization without durable working-class organization. Drawing on his experience with the Bernie Sanders campaigns, Professor Reed advocates rebuilding solidaristic, universalist politics capable of confronting both economic inequality and authoritarianism through sustained political organization and democratic-socialist transformation.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

As the United States approaches the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, fundamental questions persist about the political-economic foundations of Trumpism, the durability of authoritarian nationalism, and the declining capacity of the American left to articulate a transformative alternative. In this wide-ranging interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Professor Adolph Reed Jr., Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania and Distinguished Visiting Professor of Politics at Mount Holyoke College, offers a historically grounded critique of Trumpism, neoliberalism, racial politics, and the erosion of working-class political organization.

One of the most distinctive voices in American political thought, Professor Reed challenges interpretations that privilege political personalities, demographic identities, or ideological labels over the structural contradictions of capitalist democracy. Rather than becoming preoccupied with whether Trumpism should be classified as populism or fascism, he emphasizes its political consequences and underlying material conditions. “Trumpism is clearly a form of authoritarianism,” he argues, while observing that it remains loosely aligned with authoritarian tendencies emerging across Europe and Latin America.

Crucially, Professor Reed cautions against assuming that Trump’s departure would eliminate the political forces associated with his presidency. “The structural contradictions aren’t going anywhere,” he insists, identifying the increasingly fraught relationship between capitalist accumulation and political legitimation as a defining tension within neoliberal democracies. Unless these contradictions are addressed through an alternative political vision capable of providing security and well-being, Professor Reed warns, “the threat of another version of Trumpism will continue to be there.”

The interview also explores Professor Reed’s longstanding critique of race-reductionist explanations of political behavior and inequality. Questioning the treatment of racial categories as coherent political constituencies, he argues that contemporary social science has been “more or less willfully making class and political economy disappear from our understanding of American politics.” His historically specific approach to racism and white supremacy challenges explanations that detach racial ideologies from material interests, institutional structures, and political mobilization.

Turning to democratic socialism, Professor Reed reflects on his involvement in both Bernie Sanders presidential campaigns and the organizational limitations that constrained their transformative potential. “You can’t elect your way to social transformation, at least not without an organizational base,” he observes. Despite these setbacks, he identifies growing skepticism toward capitalism among working people as evidence of changing political possibilities.

Ultimately, Professor Reed argues that confronting authoritarianism and neoliberalism requires sustained organizing beyond electoral cycles. His central message emphasizes the patient reconstruction of working-class solidarity, institutional capacity, and universalist politics. As he concludes, “You’ve got to be able to focus both on what needs to be done to stop the bleeding right now, to keep things from getting worse, and on where we’re trying to go in the long run.”

Here is our interview with Professor Adolph Reed, edited lightly to enhance clarity, readability, and overall flow for publication.

Trumpism Is Clearly a Form of Authoritarianism

National Guard troops on standby during a downtown Los Angeles demonstration against expanded ICE operations and in support of immigrant rights in Los Angeles, US on June 8, 2025. Photo: Dreamstime.

Professor Reed, welcome, and thank you for joining us. Let me begin with how we should conceptualize Trumpism itself. You have recently referred explicitly to the rise of “Trumpist fascism” and elsewhere described Trumpism as the “point of the lance” of a broader fascist international. At the same time, much of the political science literature analyzes Trump through the language of populism, authoritarian populism, or the populist radical right. So, what is obscured when Trumpism is understood primarily as populism rather than as fascism? And what political-economic criteria, in your view, should distinguish fascism from right-wing populism in the contemporary United States?

Professor Adolph Reed: That’s an important question because a lot of ink has been spilled over a debate that, often enough or all too often, shifts the lens away from examining the pragmatic or practical political impacts of the shift and toward a taxonomic exercise, which is academics really like to do. From that perspective, I won’t quibble about whether Trump should most properly or most effectively be understood as a fascist, because that automatically opens up a second-order argument about how we delineate the most important features of fascism.

I would say two things. One is that Trumpism is clearly a form of authoritarianism, politically. While it’s not necessarily directly coordinated, it seems to be more or less loosely aligned with other variants and expressions of authoritarianism that have been rising across the world, not just in Europe, where it’s most conspicuous, but also now in Latin America.

I am concerned about what feels to me like a promiscuous usage of populism, and this is another problem that American social scientists often have. Going back to the 2016 presidential campaign, there was a tendency in public intellectual life, and all too frequently in political science, to define populism in such a way that it would capture any political tendency that’s either somewhat to the right of the conservative coalition or somewhat to the left of the center-left coalition. I found that quite unhelpful and ideological.

Trump’s political persona and performance, as well as the performance of his minions, show characteristics or behaviors that make us think of fascism or other authoritarian movements, past or present. But I’m not really hung up on taxonomizing Trumpism. I’m more concerned with trying to make sense of it within the context of contemporary politics and the dangers it poses to us.

So, it feels a little bit like you may have asked me what time it is, and I gave you a disquisition on how to make a watch. I apologize if that’s true. My son says one of our problems, his and mine, is that we tend to speak in paragraphs.

Trumpism Beyond Trump: Structural Contradictions and Capitalist Interests

Trumpism is frequently interpreted as a highly personalized movement built around Donald Trump’s charisma, grievances, and domination of the Republican Party. Your analysis, however, places much greater emphasis on the destruction of working-class political capacity, neoliberal hegemony, and the absence of an effective anti-capitalist left. How important is Trump himself to explaining Trumpism? If Trump disappeared from American politics tomorrow, how much of the political formation identified with his name would actually disappear with him?

Professor Adolph Reed: That’s a very good question because Trump aspires to be a caudillo, or a dictator, in his fantasy life. Unfortunately, for Trump, the distinction between fantasy life and reality is always blurred. So, I don’t know. Partly because Trump insists on surrounding himself with incompetent sycophants, I don’t think the movement, Trumpism, has institutional constituents so much as a gaggle of free-rider billionaires and hustlers who share with him a mean-spirited take on the world in general, along with no shortage of avarice and a propensity for corruption.

But I don’t know whether Trumpism per se could survive his demise as a movement. That may be wishful thinking, too. But it is also the case that those forces are still going to be out there. To the extent that they have grounded material interests, those interests aren’t going away. Alliances could potentially develop from the affiliations that have come together under the banner of Trumpism, and they could reorganize.

It’s certainly the case that the structural contradictions aren’t going anywhere, especially the increasingly fraught tension between the imperatives of accumulation and political legitimation, principally in neoliberal democracies.

We’re also seeing more and more signs that we’ve come to a point at which the Democratic Party is, by default, more generally favored by large capital and governing elites. I have some friends, like Sam Gindin in Canada, who’ve been stressing this point all along. The Democrats provide a certain stability and seem to be better able, at least on the surface, to navigate the tension between the accumulation and legitimation imperatives than Republicans are, although they aren’t particularly successful either. That, as I’ve argued, is one of the factors that led to the rise of Trumpism in the first place.

So, in a nutshell, I would say that the structural contradictions that have given space for the rise of authoritarian nationalist, fascist, and populist tendencies around the world remain unresolved. Until those are actually addressed, there will continue to be enough dissatisfaction, desperation, and a sense of undesirable or frightening uncertainty among the general population that, unless there’s some political voice offering a different view of the world and a different strategy for realizing security and well-being, the threat of another version of Trumpism will continue to be there.

US President Donald Trump delivers a speech to voters at an event in Phoenix, Arizona. Photo: Danny Raustadt.

Economic Insecurity and Status Insecurity Are Not Really Separable

After the 2024 election, you rejected the widespread claim that Trump had assembled a genuinely “new coalition,” arguing that pollsters and political strategists reify demographic categories into supposedly coherent constituencies. How should we therefore interpret shifts toward Trump among segments of Black, Latino, immigrant, or working-class voters? Do these shifts reveal an ideological realignment, or do they demonstrate the limitations of treating race, ethnicity, gender, and education as ready-made political blocs?

Professor Adolph Reed: That’s a very important question, and some of your readers might consider my response completely off the wall. But I’ve argued that those blocs of voters, defined by the pollsters’ ways of aggregating data, are themselves basically artificial. Black male voters under 40… What sort of category is that? What does that tell us about any set of individuals and what motivates them? Or Hispanic voters, even Hispanic Catholic voters… I think those categories are too idealized and unwieldy to be really useful to us and are more attuned to producing outcomes than to measuring them. That is to say, these formulations of pre-given voting blocs reflect as much an effort to bring those blocs together as meaningful political categories as an effort to help us predict outcomes. They encourage people to understand themselves and their concerns within the taxonomy of those big blocks and act accordingly.

I think that’s the first problem. Over the last 10 or 15 years, I’ve become increasingly impressed by how actively the social sciences, or the various disciplines within them, have been more or less willfully making class and political economy disappear from our understanding of American politics, even making the idea of a working class disappear. I don’t count economics and psychology in this.

One way to punctuate that last point is to note that, for the two or three decades after World War II in the US, my discipline, political science, along with sociology and, to a lesser extent, perhaps anthropology, hinged largely on the invention of a middle class as a baseline category in American politics. The middle class is a notion that defies scientific specificity. It’s all over the place. It’s a category that now has to do with attitudes and social position, but almost never with one’s place in political economy.

That said, going back to the 2024 election, there seemed to be some loss of support among what are categorized as Black or Hispanic constituencies, with some movement from the Democrats to the Republicans. Especially among Black voters, the move toward Trump has always been overstated. What the same pollsters are telling us now is that Black and Hispanic voters who had flirted with Trump seem to have become disaffected with him.

This may seem too tendentious, but I think one of the most meaningful features of this horse-race, post-game handicapping that dominates political interpretation in American life, both in the media and in the academy, is that, consciously or not, it’s more about producing outcomes and constituencies that fit into the abstract categories we’ve made up for them than about understanding what people are actually concerned about.

One other point on this: a former colleague of mine, who’s a very smart, insightful, and talented scholar, contended quite militantly after the 2016 election that the bulk of Trump voters were motivated not by economic insecurity but by status insecurity. I thought about that for a minute and wondered: What part of the solar system do you have to live on not to notice that those two aren’t really separable?

That just suggests to me, as a critical intellectual historian and a student of the history of ideologies, that there’s some ideology at work in that argument. Again, I feel like I’ve gone all around Robin Hood’s barn, as my grandmother would say. I’m sorry if it’s not directly responsive enough.

White Supremacy, Racism, and Historical Explanation

Jake Angeli or QAnon Shaman was among those who participated in the riots initiated by former US President Donald Trump at the Capitol, Washington D.C. on January 6, 2021. Photo: Johnny Silvercloud

One of your most persistent criticisms of contemporary political analysis is that concepts such as “white supremacy” and “racism” are often treated as autonomous causal forces rather than historically specific ideologies embedded in concrete social relations. In your 2020 discussion of socialism and race, you criticized explanations of Trump’s appeal that presume an enduring racial motivation among white workers without sufficient historical or causal specification. How, then, should scholars determine when white supremacy is genuinely explanatory rather than simply descriptive?

Professor Adolph Reed: That’s also a very good question. I don’t think I have methodological advice to offer. But a big step forward would be to pose the question you’ve raised at every step along the way, at every compass point, and to interrogate the notion of an abstraction. First, what does one mean when one says white supremacy? Or, for that matter, what does one mean when one says racism?

I’m a pretty historicist scholar, and I’m always conscious that the same phrase can mean radically different things in concrete terms at different historical moments and in different historical contexts. One facet of a perverse strain in liberal intellectual discourse over the last 20 or 25 years, which I feel is an American export product in the same way that Air Jordans are, but with the heft of foundation money behind it, is the premise that such abstractions as white supremacy or racism, and one could even say sexism, are primordial and, as some sociobiologists would argue, even hardwired or in some ways fashioned on the Pleistocene plains, or whatever.

It seems to me that if we refrain from constructing accounts of the past and its relation to the present that conform to what the sociologist Loïc Wacquant described as the logic of the trial, it might help us jettison an approach to explanation driven by an ideological or moral imperative to demonstrate the existence of racism, whatever we mean by it. Instead, we could start from historical specificity, first trying to root these expressions in their own contexts, to see what they’re responding to and who’s trying to mobilize these ideologies.

The sociologist Rogers Brubaker, whose work is really very important, has made the point that race, ethnicity, and nationality are all basically different labels for the same phenomenon. But he also notes that we all have multiple ethnic or ethnic-like identities that we experience and carry around all the time. They tend to rise to the conscious mind, or come to the foreground, or retreat into the background in response to cultural and contextual stimuli.

For instance, if my postal worker was raised Catholic and I was raised Catholic, then we’re Catholics with each other. Or if someone has family in Cuba and I have family in Cuba, then we’re Cubans together. What’s especially powerful is his argument that ethnic identities, or a particular ethnic identity, are likely to come to the foreground when mobilized by political entrepreneurs who want to pursue agendas that require the support of a population substantially larger than the number of people who would benefit concretely from the realization of those agendas.

If we think about the fantasized notion of ethnic war, to which people revert to provide evidence for the claim that there are ancient, primordial hatreds, that’s a very good illustration of this. So-called ethnic wars are almost invariably prompted by the actions of self-interested elites. The Lebanese Civil War is a classic case of this. You attack another group, which then retaliates by attacking members of your group. You can then put yourself in the position of telling your group that we, the militia, the ethnically or religiously defined militia, are your only hope for salvation. It’s almost like a mafia extortion racket.

So, I’ll draw a line under this by returning to the presumption that there are these primordial identities. To take another illustration, say I have a Polish grandparent, and you have a Polish grandparent, and we’re somehow capable of sensing that we share a Polishness. That kind of thinking, like Afro-pessimism and stories of tragic, primordial, intractable ethnic hatreds, is basically the quintessence of what racism is.

I’d be happy to be a foot soldier in a campaign to eliminate, or at least counter, that form of thinking, which is best done by trying to organize around a different conception of what shared interests are.

Race Is One Species Within a Broader Genus of Ideologies of Ascriptive Hierarchy

You have argued that Marxism’s crucial contribution to understanding race is “demystification”: treating race not as an eternal social substance but as a historically specific ideology that develops within particular relations of production and power. How does this perspective change the way we should understand racial politics under Trump, especially when explicitly racialized rhetoric, immigration politics, and unequal outcomes plainly remain politically consequential?

Professor Adolph Reed: I’ll tell you one thing: during both of Trump’s presidencies, I’ve said to friends that I’ve occasionally wondered what it would have been like to live through the last decades of the 19th century in the American South, not necessarily to have been alive then, but at least to have watched how the wounded Southern planter-merchant capitalist class, weakened by the capital-P Populist insurgency from below in the early 1890s, regrouped, self-consciously constructed a white supremacist ideology, imposed it institutionally through the deployment of as much violence, fraud, and intimidation as necessary, and established it as the hegemonic ideology.

Because it’s clear that while committed white supremacists in the Jim Crow-era South were certainly committed to racial hierarchy and the establishment of a racist regime, and I would never challenge the sincerity of that commitment, white supremacy was simultaneously a discourse of mobilization. It helped divide the potential electorate and the forces that had been arrayed against that dominant class, while deploying scapegoating in much the same way that the Trumpists do now.

Both things are true. The commitment to a white supremacist ideology was genuine, but it was simultaneously a technique for imposing a dominant order that was skewed toward representing only the interests of the upper class. Both things happen in all these movements.

I’m trying to finish a document now, and I may discuss this in the piece you mentioned. What is most helpful is to see race as a subset of, and I’m often inclined toward the evolutionary metaphor here, a species within a genus of discourses and ideologies of ascriptive hierarchy. That is, taxonomies of hierarchy based on what sets of people, who are themselves partly constructed through the discourse, are by nature rather than what they do.

There have been kazillions of these. Christians versus Muslims, for instance, and we could go on with a whole bunch of them. I’ve always found the eugenics era intellectually interesting because the power of this genus of ideologies was so great, for a variety of reasons during that period, that it became basically disconnected even from phenotype. So, you could see the character of constructed ascriptive hierarchy operating a little more clearly.

If you look at race that way, it becomes a little easier to see the historical function of different expressions of this ideological genus over time, rather than focusing on just one species.

Most People Cannot Imagine a Genuinely Egalitarian Society

In your formulation, contemporary anti-racism can function as “a neoliberal alternative to a left” when politics becomes centered on proportional representation within existing hierarchies rather than transforming the structures that generate inequality. How would you apply that critique today, when corporations, universities, liberal institutions, and political parties have simultaneously embraced some forms of diversity politics while economic inequality has remained deeply entrenched? Where is the boundary between necessary opposition to racism and what you regard as race-reductionist politics?

Professor Adolph Reed: That’s the $64 question. There’s a lot of undoing that needs to be done, unfortunately. There’s a much more complex account to be given of the disappearance of a left grounded in a political-economic understanding of inequality. But we all know it’s happened. It’s happened even within social democratic parties in Europe, where those traditions have always been stronger than their counterparts in the US.

There was a brief period when I was fairly close to Die Linke through a North American left dialogue, and it was possible to see, even then, a tendency within that movement toward a division between what could be summarized as a class-based left and an identity-based left.

Frankly, the victory of what we understand as neoliberalism helped establish the hegemony of a notion of actionable inequality that comes down to disparities or disparate outcomes, and the dynamics and practices that produce those outcomes among ascriptively defined groups. This is essentially about their ability to participate in, or take advantage of, equal opportunity under capitalism.

We’ve now reached a point where capitalist class rule is so dominant that it’s not even possible for most people to imagine a genuinely egalitarian way of organizing society that’s actually different from what currently exists. I don’t know why I’m trying to be quiet about this, but that’s what I think the ultimate problem is.

But if you’ll pardon the plug, an online academic journal I’m associated with, nonsite.org, is publishing a three-part symposium called Capitalism 1996 to 2026. The first installment came out just this past week, and I strongly encourage all your readers and listeners to take a look at it. There are four really strong articles.

There Is No Such Thing as Black Wealth and White Wealth

A Trump supporter engages in conversation with a pedestrian at Columbus Circle on October 17, 2020, in New York City. Photo: Ron Adar.

Your work with Merlin Chowkwanyun criticizes a discourse of racial disparity that carefully documents unequal outcomes but can leave their causal mechanisms underspecified. In the current political environment, how should researchers analyze racial disparities in wealth, health, policing, education, or incarceration without either minimizing racism or converting statistical disparities themselves into proof of a singular racial cause?

Professor Adolph Reed: The first step is always to interrogate whether what seems like a racial disparity is, in fact, a racial disparity. Because it could simply be a statistical artifact that conceals other dynamics producing the apparent unequal outcome, which don’t necessarily have anything to do with race.

In the COVID case, for instance, what initially appeared to be massive racial differences in both incidence and morbidity became much more clearly attributable to environmental factors as time went on and more data came in. These included the jobs people have, where they live, the transportation they depend on, and underlying tendencies or morbidity factors. These factors may be racial to the extent that a history of inequality positions some groups as structurally, on average, more vulnerable than others.

But part of our argument was to question what we gain, even in areas like health and criminal justice, including police killings, by defining these outcomes as definitively caused by racial disparity. The typical approach begins by identifying evidence of racial disparity, which often requires goosing the data, as it were, or inflecting its interpretation toward race as an abstraction. This also functions to justify the abstract claim that racism is a political force that needs to be dealt with. But there’s no causal mechanism there. That’s part of the problem.

I also find the emergence of the racial wealth gap as another significant part of this discourse especially fascinating. First of all, roughly 70 to 75 percent of so-called white wealth is controlled by the richest 10 percent of white people. Between 70 and 75 percent of so-called Black or Hispanic wealth is also controlled by the richest 10 percent of Black and Hispanic people. So, what does racial wealth mean in this context?

I’ve said in talks and even in my classes that we’re ideologically predisposed to believe, at least in the United States, that all Black people think with one brain and share every aspiration, and therefore what’s good for any one Black person is ipso facto good for all Black people, for one tortured reason or another.

So, I suggest stepping outside that predisposition. Let’s assume a white female nurse loses her job, has no independent source of funds, and is on the verge of being evicted from her apartment. Where is the pot of white wealth she gets to go to? Where is the teacup, presumably, from which she can get her rent money? When you think of it that way, the idea of racial wealth seems all the more preposterous. So, I’d say there is no such thing as Black wealth, white wealth, or any other group wealth. To that extent, there can’t be a racial wealth gap.

My good friend and colleague Walter Benn Michaels and I started saying, even before we knew each other and quite independently of each other, that when you hear the word race, you should think unicorn, because race is as real as unicorns are. Just as you can taxonomize races, you can taxonomize unicorns in any way you want because you’re not really constrained by having to approximate the empirical reality of the unicorn. Race is the same way. Let’s get that mixed-up stuff straight.

Universalism, Anti-Discrimination, and Working-Class Solidarity

Your work repeatedly returns to the possibility of solidaristic, universalist politics organized around shared material interests. Critics of this approach often argue that universal programs can reproduce racial inequalities unless they are explicitly designed around historically specific forms of disadvantage. How would you answer that objection? What would a genuinely multiracial democratic-socialist universalism look like institutionally rather than rhetorically?

Professor Adolph Reed: It seems to me, frankly, that this argument is a red herring. It’s simply a matter of committing to conscious and active anti-discrimination within the framework of universalist politics. The presumption of essential solidarity is what provides the basis for challenging prejudice, which is, after all, an attitude, as well as discriminatory practices. So, I think it’s a non-issue. It’s a smokescreen, much like the idea that there are people out there called class-first Marxists or whatever.

No Social Transformation Without an Organizational Base

Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders speaks at Presidential Rally at Springs Preserve Ampitheater evening before Nevada Caucus, Las Vegas, NV on February 21, 2020. Photo: Joseph Sohm.

The Sanders campaigns appeared, briefly, to revive mass interest in democratic socialism and decommodified public goods such as universal healthcare and free higher education. Yet the organizational breakthrough many supporters anticipated did not follow. Was Sanders primarily evidence that a latent constituency for social democracy exists in the United States, or did the movement around him reveal how weak the organizational infrastructure necessary for democratic socialism has become?

Professor Adolph Reed: I think both things are true. In the spirit of full disclosure, I worked on both Sanders campaigns. Also, much of the Sanders program actually came straight from the Labor Party in the US, founded in 1996, in which I was also deeply involved.

Very few people believed that Sanders actually had a chance to win either nomination, though some of us thought that if he could somehow win the nomination, he would have a better chance of winning the presidency than Hillary Clinton did. We’ll never know. But many of us also thought it was really just as well that he didn’t win the presidency, because you can’t elect your way to social transformation, at least not without an organizational base.

What we thought the campaigns could do, both times, was publicly dramatize the problem of intensifying inequality and insecurity in the US, show that it was possible to imagine confronting those problems, and stimulate institutionally grounded organizing that could generate another political formation capable of pushing the struggle forward. But I was disappointed. 

During the first campaign, seven unions formed a Labor for Bernie group, and they acted in solidarity and coherently throughout the campaign. Interestingly, most of those unions had also been part of the Labor Party 20 years earlier. But for various reasons, some of which had to do with the debasement of American politics already underway, we came out of the 2016 presidential election and went straight into state elections, which were crucial to the unions’ concerns. So, the momentum generated through Bernie’s first campaign dissipated into politics as usual among the left trade unions. That’s one sense in which I say both of the possibilities you mentioned were correct.

Something similar happened the second time. We were a little closer to gaining traction after 2020. Then COVID hit, and the country immediately went into lockdown. I’d been working in South Carolina with my colleagues, trying to build on a grassroots base in support of single-payer healthcare, Medicare for All, on which we’d made a lot of headway during the campaign, notwithstanding the fact that Sanders was badly beaten in the primary. COVID tended to undercut those efforts.

But I’ll say this: I work with the Debs-Jones-Douglass Institute, a nonprofit we created with the Labor Party to undertake worker education, political education, cultural activities, and research on behalf of working-class politics. We’ve been doing this since the early 1990s, and the materials we produced in the 1990s, just a few years after the end of the Cold War, had to tiptoe around even using the word capitalism or being at all critical of it.

That environment has changed radically. I even had to apologize to my undergraduate students for a course I’m teaching this semester because it didn’t assume they were as attuned to criticisms of capitalism as they actually were. The majority of the students in this class are just second-year college students, albeit precocious ones.

One of the quips in the labor movement is that often the best organizer you have is the boss. That’s the case here. Thirty more years of going down the neoliberal road, especially since 2008, have made working people in general more skeptical and more open to critiques that begin by explaining how capitalism works and how those processes are connected to their insecurity.

We Must Stop the Bleeding Now Without Losing Sight of Our Long-Term Goals

And finally, Professor Reed, you have argued that there is “no effective substitute for an anti-capitalist left” and that confronting the far right requires the patient construction of a real working-class constituency rather than episodic mobilization around elections. Whatever happens on November 3, what should democratic socialists, trade unionists, and the broader left actually do the morning after the midterms? What would count, over the next five or ten years, as evidence that an organized political force capable of contesting both neoliberalism and the far right is genuinely being built?

Professor Adolph Reed: I have a pat answer to that: the same thing they did the morning before the election. Let me offer an illustration. During the 2020 campaign, the Sanders campaign sent me on a labor tour of South Carolina. South Carolina is probably the most reactionary state in America, though that changes from day to day, and perhaps often has the lowest trade union density in the entire country.

One of my stops was at a steelworkers’ union hall in Georgetown, South Carolina, on the coast. Among those in attendance were a couple of white rank-and-file members who had come to the hall on either a Saturday or Sunday morning. One of them was a younger guy, maybe 40 at most. He volunteered that he liked the Sanders economic program but couldn’t understand why the Democrats kept getting bogged down in what he called moral issues.

We had a little back-and-forth about what he meant, and it turned out he was referring to same-sex marriage and abortion. I was there as a supplicant, so I wasn’t going to be combative with him in any way. I tried a number of soft-pedaling approaches, like live and let live, or whatever, but nothing worked.

Finally, I asked, what’s more important to you? Having a good, secure job, good wages, benefits, access to desirable housing, adequate healthcare, the ability to provide your kids with a good education, and the opportunity to go back to school if you want? Or ensuring that no two people of the same sex can ever marry and that no woman can ever end an unwanted pregnancy? No, that didn’t convert him, but I didn’t expect it to, because I was just some fast-talking clown from Philadelphia. But it stopped him in his tracks for a few seconds.

I couldn’t help thinking: What if I were his brother-in-law, his kids’ soccer coach, his neighbor, or a co-worker on his shift, someone who had some standing in his eyes and could have this conversation with him repeatedly over time?

No, I don’t think the ideal outcome would necessarily be for him to become a militant advocate of reproductive rights. But at least over time, and on the basis of solidarity, he could come to accept that other people have different ways of seeing these issues, even though they’re committed to the same fundamental program of transforming society in the interests of working people. That’s where real tolerance of difference could come from.

You only get that through building a solidaristic movement over time. We haven’t had anything like that in the US, at least during my adult life. In fact, for most of my adult life, we haven’t even had the benefit of direct connections to people who knew it was possible to have a world like that and who had fought for that solidarity, both inside and outside the trade unions, in the period before World War II.

I may be old-fashioned, but I just don’t see any other way to do it. There’s no other way to get there. Now, that’s not to say that you shouldn’t pay attention to elections at all. I vote in every election.

There’s a phrase the Maoists used to use a long time ago: walking on two legs. You’ve got to be able to focus both on what needs to be done to stop the bleeding right now, to keep things from getting worse, and on where we’re trying to go in the long run. That’s my argument for everybody.

Professor Natália Sátyro.

Prof. Sátyro: Bolsonarismo Has Already Become Bigger Than Bolsonaro Himself

In an interview with ECPS, Professor Natália Sátyro argues that Brazil’s 2026 presidential election reflects a conflict extending far beyond the Lula–Flávio Bolsonaro runoff. At its center is a Bolsonarismo that, she says, “has already become bigger than Bolsonaro himself”—a durable movement combining neoconservative cultural politics, neoliberalism, anti-system mobilization, and competing notions of who deserves state protection. Professor Sátyro examines how family, religion, gender, race, class, and welfare policy have become intertwined in this struggle, contrasting Bolsonarismo’s “familialism by default” with a more state-centered social-protection model. Ultimately, she sees Brazil confronting two competing projects: “one very conservative and neoliberal, and the other more progressive and focused on social justice,” with profound implications for democracy, citizenship, and social rights.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

Brazil’s 2026 presidential election has become more than a contest between President Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. It has developed into a struggle over competing conceptions of democracy, citizenship, social protection, family, gender relations, and the role of the state. The first round placed Flávio Bolsonaro at 47 percent and Lula at 45.1 percent, sending the election to an October 25 runoff. Against this backdrop, Professor Natália Sátyro, Professor of Political Science in the Department of Political Science at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), brings to the debate a distinctive perspective grounded in her scholarship on family policy, social protection, institutional change, state capacity, gender, and minority access to welfare.

At the center of Professor Sátyro’s analysis is the argument captured in the headline of this interview: “Bolsonarismo has already become bigger than Bolsonaro himself.” In her view, Bolsonarismo has developed into “a strong movement with neoconservative characteristics” and “a powerful neoliberal appeal,” combining anti-PT and anti-system politics with a differentiated conception of state protection for those considered deserving and undeserving. She argues that its electoral advance has come not only at the expense of the left but also of Brazil’s traditional mainstream right, making Bolsonarismo, in her words, “certainly here to stay.”    

The durability of Bolsonarismo, Professor Sátyro suggests, cannot be understood solely through electoral competition. It is embedded in a broader cultural and institutional project in which the family occupies a central place. She describes an “explicit defense of a traditional patriarchal type of family” and emphasizes the political importance of evangelical networks in mobilizing support around family, gender, sexuality, education, and moral order. For Professor Sátyro, the cleavage is therefore not simply between cultural conservatism and redistribution. “What is at stake today,” she argues, “is democracy versus something non-democratic

Her analysis also brings welfare-state politics into this broader conflict. Professor Sátyro characterizes the Bolsonaro project as one of “familialism by default,” in which “the family and the market should be the pillars of social protection in Brazil.” This model, she argues, reinforces gendered caregiving roles and deepens class inequalities because affluent families can purchase care in the market while poorer families depend more heavily on extended family and community networks.   

Ultimately, Professor Sátyro sees Brazil as confronting two competing political projects: “one very conservative and neoliberal, and the other more progressive and focused on social justice.” The runoff, therefore, is not merely about presidential succession. It raises a larger question about what kind of citizenship, welfare regime, social order, and democratic state Brazil will seek to consolidate in the years ahead.

Here is our interview with Professor Natália Sátyro, edited lightly to enhance clarity, readability, and overall flow for publication.

MEP Hanna Gedin.

MEP Gedin: The EU Is Losing Its Voice When It Comes to Upholding International Law

MEP Hanna Gedin argues that the EU’s credibility as a defender of democracy, human rights, and international law is being weakened by political double standards and the growing normalization of radical-right ideas. In this ECPS interview, she warns that “the EU is losing its voice when it comes to upholding international law” and points to inconsistencies in migration policy and relations with Israel and Turkey. Gedin also urges the European left not to adapt to the far right, but to build its own agenda around inequality, housing, energy, and the cost of living. “You need to have your own agenda,” she says, and to “make life a good life without adapting to the far right and their narrative.”

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

In this wide-ranging interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Hanna Gedin, Member of the European Parliament for Sweden’s Vänsterpartiet (Left Party, V) and Vice-Chair of The Left Group, reflects on Sweden’s post-election political deadlock, the normalization of radical-right ideas in European policymaking, the erosion of international law, and the strategic dilemmas facing the democratic left. Gedin, who works on the internal market, industry, energy, women’s rights, and gender equality, situates these questions within a broader critique of inequality, restrictive migration policy, and the weakening of Europe’s normative credibility. 

The interview begins with the struggle to translate Sweden’s new parliamentary majority into a viable center-left government. Gedin rejects the idea that Vänsterpartiet should once again support a government from outside, insisting that “if our votes are needed, if our mandates are needed, of course we should be in the government.” She argues that the Center Party (C) “needs to choose,” because “there is no middle way.” At the same time, she acknowledges the deep economic divide between the two parties but maintains that cooperation remains possible on issues ranging from feminism and climate to international law and support for communities outside major cities.

A central theme of Gedin’s remarks is the extent to which the radical right has reshaped mainstream political agendas. She argues that Swedish parties have been “adapting and moving closer to the Sweden Democrats,” while politics has increasingly shifted away from “bread and butter” concerns toward culture-war issues. For Gedin, the answer is not imitation but political differentiation: “For the left, it’s really important not to adapt.” Instead, she insists, “You need to have your own agenda,” centered on the cost of living, inequality, housing, and material security.

This concern extends to migration policy at both Swedish and European levels. Gedin describes a “shift and an adaptation to the radical right” in EU migration politics and recalls far right and right-wing MEPs cheering “Send them back, send them back” during a vote on return hubs. Yet she also points to Sweden’s debate over teenage deportations as evidence that public attitudes can shift when abstract migration categories acquire “names and faces.”   

The interview’s sharpest normative critique concerns international law. Gedin argues that “the EU is losing its voice when it comes to upholding international law” and warns of “a complete erosion of international law” driven by double standards. She contrasts the EU’s firm response to Russia’s war against Ukraine with what she sees as a much weaker approach toward Israel, arguing that such inconsistency undermines European credibility globally.    

Ultimately, Gedin presents a distinctly materialist response to the rise of the far right. She argues that the left must make politics concrete: reduce inequality, address rents and energy costs, tax the very rich, and “make life a good life without adapting to the far right and their narrative.”

MEP Hanna Gedin. Photo: Umit Vurel.

Here is our interview with MEP Hanna Gedin, edited lightly to enhance clarity, readability, and overall flow for publication.

The Center Party Needs to Choose

Ms. Gedin, welcome. Let me begin with the tension between Vänsterpartiet (Left Party) and the Center Party and the prospects for forming a new red-green government. Sweden’s 2026 election produced a parliamentary majority for S, V, C, and MP, but that majority has so far proved difficult to turn into a government. Vänsterpartiet (V) insists that it must be part of the next government, while the Center Party (C) still refuses to accept V in government. Magdalena Andersson has now received a second opportunity to form an administration, and the four parties have at least begun talking together. Where, concretely, do you see a way out of this deadlock?

MEP Hanna Gedin: I’m not stressed or concerned because we have had this situation before, during the 2018 election, and it took a couple of months before we had a government. My party’s position is quite normal. If they want our votes, if they want our support for the government, of course we should, like every other party, be in the government. That’s a very normal position.

The Center Party has not really done its homework because they have said absolutely no to the Sweden Democrats, while at the same time they say absolutely no to us, and then there is no majority. So, they need to choose. There is no possibility in the middle, as they seem to think.

They have also been very clear and vocal in saying that Magdalena Andersson is their prime minister candidate, just as we have been. Then they need to show that and to choose. There is no middle way, and in the end, we will see this government forming.

V Wants a Stable Center-Left Government

The Center Party says it can support Magdalena Andersson as prime minister but draws a red line against Vänsterpartiet entering government. Why should the Left accept supporting a government from outside after an election in which its votes are indispensable to the new majority? And is there any compromise—cabinet participation, a formal cooperation agreement, budget influence—that V could realistically accept?

MEP Hanna Gedin: I’m not part of the negotiating team; I must start by saying that. But our demand is clear. We have been clear for many years now: if our votes are needed, if our mandates (seats) are needed, of course we should be in the government. We can’t support the government from the outside.

We have seen what that did before, in the 2018 election, when we were supposed to support the government from the outside. It became a very weak government. They did not have a majority for their budgets, and in the end, when they proposed a marketisation of the rent system in Sweden, we actually had to vote the government down. We don’t want that situation. We want a stable center-left government. This is our position.

The Ideological Divide Between V and C

Behind the dispute over cabinet seats lies a much deeper ideological conflict. The Center Party remains economically liberal, while Vänsterpartiet wants stronger welfare provision, greater redistribution, public investment, and tighter constraints on market power. If a red-green government is eventually formed, which of these substantive economic disagreements could become more difficult than the present argument over who gets to sit in government?

MEP Hanna Gedin: It is true that the Center Party and the Left Party have quite opposite economic politics. I would even say that the Center Party is quite extreme when it comes to economic politics. However, I have understood for several years now that they might be needed in the government, and we might sometimes have to undertake some very hard negotiations and find some kind of solution on these issues.

We do believe it’s possible, and we also think that we have a lot of issues that unite us—for example, when it comes to support for communities outside the big cities, feminism, international law, and climate. So, we do think that there are a lot of issues that we have in common.

The SD Is Now Seen as an Establishment Party

Sweden Democrats’ Square Meeting in Umeå. Jimmie Åkesson speaks to the people on the city square where opposition left-wingers have formed a chain and protest in Umeå, Sweden on August 14, 2018. Photo: Shutterstock.

Vänsterpartiet entered the election promising to help remove a government whose policies were heavily dependent on the Sweden Democrats. If the parties that won the parliamentary majority cannot agree on a government, is there a danger that the post-election dispute itself strengthens SD’s argument that the established parties are incapable of governing—and gives the radical right another opening?

MEP Hanna Gedin: What we saw in the Swedish election was that the Sweden Democrats, for the first time since they entered the National Assembly, actually decreased. They had quite a bad election, and this is, in a way, due to the fact that they are now seen as an establishment party. Even though they have not been part of the Tidö government, they have been the biggest party supporting this government.

When it comes to economic issues, they have shown that they are a right-wing party. They support the economic politics of the right-wing parties. So, I don’t think they have a case for saying that they are anything other than an established party nowadays.

I also think that the election results, where our party, the Swedish Left Party, had a very good election and where we can see that the left side actually got stronger, show that people want something else than the politics we have seen from the Tidö government. And I do think that we will be able to form a government.

Mainstream Parties Moving Toward the Sweden Democrats

You argued earlier that the Sweden Democrats, even without formally entering government, exercised enormous influence over migration, crime, and ethnicity, and that ideas once considered politically unthinkable had moved into government policy. After four years of Tidö government, how deeply has SD changed the political center of gravity in Sweden? Is the larger story now less about SD itself than about mainstream parties adopting parts of its agenda?

MEP Hanna Gedin: We have seen in Sweden a lot of parties adapting and moving closer to the Sweden Democrats, and that is something we see in many countries. It’s extremely dangerous. It’s dangerous when politics focuses on things that are not bread and butter. It’s not about the cost of living or what people really feel in everyday life, but about culture-war issues, and what that has done to society in Sweden is very dangerous.

During the Tidö government, the government put forward, and we adopted, snitch laws, so you should snitch on your neighbors or coworkers if they come from a different country. This is quite extreme. We have seen it even when it comes to criminal issues and so on—this kind of obsession that if you are from another country, you should go away, you should go out of Sweden. It’s also linked to the notion of criminality being colored, in a way. It has been quite an extreme development in Sweden.

What the election showed is that people do not want this kind of policy. During the election campaign, we talked about bread and butter. We talked about people’s cost of living. We talked about the skyrocketing rise in rent, for example. We did canvass. We knocked on almost half a million doors, and when we met people, they were not talking about snitch laws or the need to be tougher on criminals. They were talking about things that affected them in their ordinary lives.

A lot of people also said that. I met a woman who said, “You know, I have stomachache. They don’t want me here. They want to throw me out. What this government has done to me and my neighbors is horrible, and I can’t vote for them. I will vote for you.”

So, in a way, it has affected us. But I do think that what we have seen during these four years—this obsession with people of a different color of skin, or criminals, and so on—is not what people want. I really feel a bit like it’s easier to breathe now. It’s like opening a window, and I think a lot of people in Sweden agree with me.

And I think that’s also very important: the first thing these four parties did, even before forming a government, was to stop the deportation of young people that was planned under the Tidö government. We stopped it.

How the Left Should Confront the Far Right

You have described the far right as particularly effective at finding scapegoats, offering simple answers to complex problems, and forcing its issues to the center of public debate. Across Europe, far-right, radical-right, and populist radical-right parties are increasingly shaping policy even where they are not governing. Why has the democratic left struggled to set the agenda with the same effectiveness—and what has it failed to understand about voters attracted to these parties?

MEP Hanna Gedin: In politics, it’s easier to make people vote for something they are afraid of than for something they hope for. If we have been living for several years with this repressive politics and the right-wing agenda, people also forget what solidarity is and what equality is, and you need to be reminded of it sometimes.

But for the left, it’s really important not to adapt, not to only talk about the Sweden Democrats or the right, the extremist parties, and not to adapt to them. What the Social Democrats did in Sweden, mainly during the election campaign—talking about the Sweden Democrats—did not work. You need to have your own agenda, and you need to put forward reforms about the cost of living, for example. That was what we did, and we were rewarded by the election results in Sweden.

Gender, Migration, and the Far Right

Celebrating Sweden’s National Day in Norrköping, Sweden, on June 6, 2014. Immigrants and native Swedes participate together in National Day celebrations. Sweden’s National Day is an official public holiday. Photo: Dreamstime.

The far right increasingly presents itself not only as anti-immigration but as the defender of a particular European cultural order, often combining nationalism with opposition to abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, and gender equality. As an MEP working on women’s rights and gender equality, do you see these struggles as separate policy battles, or as parts of a broader political project to redefine who belongs and whose rights are considered legitimate?

MEP Hanna Gedin: We see these attacks every day in the European Parliament, and you can see them in a lot of countries as well. The struggles are connected, and you can’t just take one struggle; you need to see the fight as a common fight.

In this Parliament, we see attacks from the right-wing parties on trans people and on migrants, for example. We don’t yet see the same number of attacks on abortion rights, but I’m sure it will come if they are successful.

Stopping Teenage Deportations Is a Very Important Step

You recently raised the issue of what you called Sweden’s “teenage deportations”—young people who have grown up in Sweden but face removal when they turn 18. Sweden has moved toward some of Europe’s most restrictive migration policies. If a new Social Democratic-led government takes office, what specific changes would V demand on asylum, deportation, and family reunification, and which policies introduced during the Tidö period should be reversed first?

MEP Hanna Gedin: I’m not a parliamentarian in Sweden, I work mainly with EU policies. But I think it’s very interesting that, in 2015, something changed in Sweden. It was when there was a big migration to Sweden, and we started having these repressive laws.

During the last government, the Tidö government, something changed last year when we first had a mayor in the city of Jokkmokk (a small municipality and town in Norrbotten County, northern Sweden, in Swedish Lapland / S.G.) saying, “I don’t want you to deport my people living in my city,” and a lot of mayors started saying the same: “We don’t accept this kind of very repressive policy.”

Then we had the teenage deportations. As you said, we saw many deportations of teenagers who spoke perfectly good Swedish, who had grown up in Sweden, and who were deported from their families. And the debate started shifting. Instead of saying, “Yes, people should go out, we should send them out, we should have more oppressive laws,” people were saying, “These are my neighbors, these are my coworkers, these are my friends.” They had names and faces, and the debate changed and shifted.

The first thing the four parties—the Swedish Left Party, the Centre Party, the Social Democrats, and the Green Party in Sweden—have been doing, even though we have not yet formed the government, is to stop these deportations. I think this is a very important step.

EU Migration Policy and the Radical Right

EU Commission.
Berlaymont Building, headquarters of the European Commission, Brussels, Belgium. Constructed between 1963 and 1969, the building has become the iconic symbol of the European Commission, the executive branch of the European Union. Photo: Wiktor Wojtas / Dreamstime.

At EU level, the Migration and Asylum Pact entered into application in June, while the new Return Regulation creates faster return procedures and opens the possibility of “return hubs” outside the Union. Governments are now discussing even tougher measures. Are we witnessing the normalization at EU level of ideas that only a few years ago were associated primarily with the radical right? And where should the legal and moral limits of European migration policy be drawn?

MEP Hanna Gedin: Yes, we are witnessing a shift and an adaptation to the radical right when it comes to migration, even at the EU level. I was present in the chamber when the return hubs were voted on, and what happened was that the radical right stood up and cheered together with the right-wing parties when they voted this through. They cheered and screamed, “Send them back, send them back.” This would not have been possible a couple of years ago.

This is a situation that we’re actually seeing, and that is why it’s quite hopeful to see what happened in Sweden and how the debate shifted with the teenagers who were deported. I do hope that we will see the same shift in Europe as well.

I also think you need to see the positive things happening in Europe when it comes to the Swedish election, but also the election in Berlin, where you had a very big left-wing party; the election in Copenhagen, a city close to where I live, where the biggest party was the Left Party; and Mamdani in New York. You do have these positive things happening as well.

You have also criticized the prolonged border controls between Sweden and Denmark and warned about allegations of racial profiling. Governments increasingly justify exceptional border measures through migration, crime, or national-security arguments. At what point does a supposedly temporary security measure become a permanent restriction on free movement and equal treatment within the EU?

MEP Hanna Gedin: I live in Malmö, a city close to Denmark. I take the train between Denmark and Sweden almost every week, and there is still this border control that was put in place in 2015. I would say that this is a permanent restriction. It is not allowed according to EU law, and it still goes on and on and on. So, yes, this is a permanent restriction, and that should not be allowed.

The EU Should Show Some Backbone

The EU has traditionally presented itself internationally as a normative power built around democracy, the rule of law, and human rights. Yet critics increasingly point to restrictive migration policies, cooperation with authoritarian governments to stop migration, and inconsistency in the application of international law. Is the EU losing credibility as a normative role model—and how much of that erosion reflects the growing influence of the populist and radical right on mainstream European policy?

MEP Hanna Gedin: Absolutely, the EU is losing its voice when it comes to upholding international law. It’s very important to see that there have always been double standards, in a way, when it comes to the EU, because a lot of countries are still colonial powers.

But now, when you can see the very correct way of handling Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine—adopting sanction packages and being tough on Russia—that is good. Why do we see this double standard when it comes to Israel? I’m absolutely sure that people see this all around the world, and countries not being part of the EU are then saying, “If the EU does this, why should we adhere to international law?”

We see a complete erosion of international law now, and with the sanctions from the US against the International Criminal Court (ICC), I think the EU should immediately activate the Blocking Statute, show some backbone, and not be as cowardly as we have seen.

One Must Be Critical Toward NATO While Not Being Naive

NATO
NATO headquarters and monument in Brussels, Belgium, the political and administrative center of the North Atlantic Alliance. Photo: Dreamstime.

On Ukraine, you have been unequivocal that Russia’s invasion must be resisted, that Ukraine deserves continued support, and that Europe should stop financing Russia through energy purchases. At the same time, Vänsterpartiet historically opposed Swedish NATO membership. How does the European left build a security policy that is credible against Russian aggression without accepting an open-ended militarization of Europe or abandoning its traditional critique of NATO?

MEP Hanna Gedin: I think one must be able to be critical toward NATO while, at the same time, not being naive. Of course, we live in a very dangerous world, and we need cooperation between countries when it comes to defending ourselves.

My party is not against the augmentation that we have seen in Sweden when it comes to military spending. This should not be taken from schools or hospitals and so on, but we want to impose a wealth tax instead. We also want cooperation between countries, the Nordic countries, and parts of the EU.

I don’t think it’s a smart way to militarize the EU as a side project to NATO and then increase military spending there as well. So, one must be able not to be naive while still being able to criticize the notion of building defense on nuclear bombs and so on. You must be able to do both.

Gaza, Israel, and International Law

You have been one of the European Parliament’s most outspoken critics of Israel’s conduct in Gaza and have called for suspension of the EU–Israel trade relationship, sanctions, and support for international accountability. You and Jonas Sjöstedt were also denied entry by Israel in August. What did that episode tell you about Europe’s leverage over Israel—and why, in your view, has the EU struggled to translate its language of international law into a common policy toward Gaza and the West Bank?

MEP Hanna Gedin: I think that the Swedish government and the EU have been too weak when it comes to Israel. As I said earlier, you need to uphold international law wherever you see crimes against humanity, whether it comes to what happens in Ukraine or what happens in Gaza.

What we see in Gaza is actually a genocide, and you can’t just wait for the ICC or the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to say, “This is a genocide.” You have a responsibility, as countries and as politicians, to prevent genocide, and this has not been done at the EU level.

I find it quite appalling that the EU keeps trading with Israel as if nothing has happened and that there are no consequences when you breach international law. Benjamin Netanyahu has an arrest warrant against him. This should, of course, be reflected in EU relations toward Israel.

Economic Cooperation with Turkey Makes the EU Quite Weak on Human Rights

Women and LGBTQ+ activists in İzmir, Turkey, rally for the International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women, highlighting femicide and the withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention. Photo: Idil Toffolo.

Your parliamentary work has also addressed repression in Iran, women and girls under Taliban rule in Afghanistan, and the imprisonment of journalists and opposition figures in Turkey. How can the EU demand democratic standards from Iran, Afghanistan, or Turkey while avoiding accusations of selectivity when its economic, migration, or security interests lead it to cooperate with governments accused of serious rights violations?

MEP Hanna Gedin: This is also a problem with double standards. The EU’s economic cooperation with Turkey when it comes to migration, of course, makes the EU quite weak in also pushing for the upholding of human rights in Turkey. So, this is a problem with EU politics that you can see toward many countries—being hijacked when it comes to how to handle these countries.

Focusing on the Cost of Living Is the Only Way

You have repeatedly argued that Europe’s market-liberal framework restricts the public investment needed for the green transition, while rising rents, electricity prices, and living costs have intensified inequality. Radical-right parties have often converted economic insecurity into cultural and anti-migrant grievances. Does the left have to win the material argument—on housing, wages, energy, and welfare—before it can successfully challenge the far right’s politics of identity and resentment?

MEP Hanna Gedin: I think this is the only way, and we saw it in the Swedish election as well. My party, the Swedish Left Party, focused mainly on the cost of living, on issues related to bread and butter, and that is what made us the party that gained the most. That was the biggest success for us. We see it when it comes to EU policies as well. This right-wing environment that we’re living in at the EU level and in many countries, which focuses on cultural issues, makes people poor. You need to be able to focus on the cost of living instead.

In Sweden, during these last years, we have seen an explosion of inequality. We have 46 people in Sweden who own as much as eight million Swedish people, and we have 700,000 poor people in Sweden. The number of poor people has doubled in just a couple of years. This is the reality people are living in, and, of course, for the left, it is about focusing on those real issues—on how to make life nice and good and possible to live, and on reducing inequalities.

Rebuilding a Credible European Left

Finally, the European left faces a strategic dilemma. It wants to confront the radical right without simply reproducing its polarizing style, while also distinguishing itself from centrist parties associated with austerity, market liberalism, and restrictive migration policies. What would a credible European left project look like today—one capable of rebuilding working-class support, defending migrants and minorities, advancing gender equality and climate justice, and at the same time persuading voters who have drifted toward populist and radical-right parties that democratic politics can still materially improve their lives?

MEP Hanna Gedin: I think you need to be very concrete about what you want to change in society. When we talk about taxing the very rich, we get a very good response. For example, we see rising inequalities everywhere, and we need to focus on reducing those inequalities by also focusing on the cost of living, on what people pay in rent, on rising electricity bills, and on the fact that a lot of people are struggling to pay for their food. So, you need to be able to make life a good life without adapting to the far right and their narrative.