Giorgia Meloni, leader of Brothers of Italy, Silvio Berlusconi, leader of Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini, leader of the League, attend a center-right coalition rally in Rome, Italy on March 01, 2018. Photo: Alessia Pierdomenico.

‘Patriots to Defend Our Identity from the Islamisation of Europe’: How Populist Leaders Normalise Polarisation, a Multimodal Discourse Analysis

Please cite as:

Reggi, Valeria. (2025). “‘Patriots to Defend Our Identity from the Islamisation of Europe’: How Populist Leaders Normalise Polarisation, a Multimodal Discourse Analysis.” Journal of Populism Studies (JPS). November 16, 2025. https://doi.org/10.55271/JPS000120

 

Abstract

This article presents the results of several studies on the communicative strategies of right-wing populist leaders in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom in 2021 and 2024. The analyses focus on Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella of the National Rally (Rassemblement National) in France, Giorgia Meloni of Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia) and Matteo Salvini of the League (Lega) in Italy, and Nigel Farage and Richard Tice of Reform UK. The research explores how these leaders construct ingroup and outgroup identities through discursive strategies, whether the outgroup is defined in civilisational terms and if these narratives have evolved over time, becoming ‘normalised.’ Employing qualitative multimodal analysis, the studies incorporate Plutchik’s (1991) classification of basic emotions, Martin and White’s (2005) appraisal theory, and Kress and van Leeuwen’s (2006) framework for image composition. The findings suggest an instrumental use of religion to enhance polarisation, but with a notable transition from emotionally charged visual campaigns to more rationalised and institutionalised arguments, contributing to the normalisation of divisive discourse on immigration and national identity.

Keywords: civilisationism, multimodal discourse analysis, normalisation, populism, right wing

By Valeria Reggi

The discourse of right-wing populist parties in Europe has undergone significant transformations over recent years. As digital platforms become increasingly central to political communication, populist leaders have adapted their messaging strategies to reach and engage with their audiences more effectively. This work presents an overview of several studies – both ongoing and completed – on the populist discourse in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom in 2021 and 2024. It focuses on right-wing leaders Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella of the National Rally (Rassemblement National) in France, Giorgia Meloni of Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia) and Matteo Salvini of the League (Lega) in Italy, and Nigel Farage and Richard Tice of Reform UK. The aim is to explore how they construct their ingroups and outgroups and the discursive mechanisms they employ to reinforce their political narratives, with particular attention to instrumental references to religion as an oppositional divide (civilisational populism). The ultimate scope is to highlight possible trajectories towards normalisation (Krzyżanowski, 2020). In particular, the studies investigate how right-wing populist[3]leaders in France, Italy and the UK build the identity of their ingroup and outgroup and what discursive strategies they use (RQ1), if the outgroup is defined in civilizational terms (RQ2) and if it has changed and become normalised in time (RQ3).

The results show, first of all, a remarkable focus on religion as a means to define the ingroup against the outgroup, which confirms the relevance of studying populism under a civilisational lens. Moreover, they highlight some relevant shifts in the content shared on social media and official party websites between 2021 and 2024, which outlines possible paths towards the normalisation of civilisational polarisation in mainstream political debates. Although this overview involves data sets originated in different research contexts and with different objectives, and, accordingly, does not aim to present a comparison between definitive results, it suggests a possible trajectory in the communication of rightist populist parties and opens the path for further investigation on the normalisation of polarised debate.

The following section outlines the theoretical framework underpinning the research, offering insights into populism, the concept of normalisation, civilisationism, and the Judeo-Christian tradition. Section 3 provides a detailed account of the materials and methods employed in the analysis. Section 4 presents the key findings and engages in their discussion. The final section addresses the research questions directly, expands upon the discussion, and considers possible directions for future research. 

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Dr. Laura Rovelli is an independent researcher at CONICET and Professor at the National University of La Plata (UNLP).

Dr. Rovelli: Milei’s Anti-Science and Denialist Policies Undermine Argentina’s Scientific Institutions

Argentina is facing an unprecedented assault on its scientific and educational institutions under President Javier Milei’s libertarian administration. Sweeping budget cuts, halted research careers, and the dismantling of science and human rights agencies have destabilized the country’s knowledge ecosystem. As Dr. Laura Rovelli warns, “the government has deployed anti-science and denialist rhetoric that seeks to discredit and undermine the institutions of science and higher education.” This interview explores how Milei’s radical anti-statist agenda erodes academic autonomy, weakens evidence-based policymaking, and reshapes public education amid growing attacks on universities accused of being “ideologically captured.” Dr. Rovelli also highlights emerging networks of resistance—unions, students, feminist groups, and scholars—mobilizing to defend academic freedom, public knowledge, and democratic life.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

Argentina is experiencing one of the most turbulent periods for its scientific, educational, and democratic institutions since the return of democracy in 1983. The administration of President Javier Milei—elected on a platform of radical libertarianism, state retrenchment, and market fundamentalism—has initiated sweeping transformations that profoundly reshape the country’s knowledge ecosystem. As part of these reforms, universities, research councils, and scientific bodies have faced defunding, institutional downgrading, and political delegitimization. According to Dr. Laura Rovelli, an independent researcher at CONICET and Professor at the National University of La Plata (UNLP), the government’s approach is not merely administrative restructuring but a broader ideological project. As she warns, “the government has deployed anti-science and denialist rhetoric that seeks to discredit and undermine the institutions of science and higher education.”

In this extensive interview, Dr. Rovelli analyzes how Milei’s program of market deregulation, dollarization, and shrinking of the state challenges the very idea of knowledge as a public good in Argentina’s democracy. She describes a context in which political fragmentation and austerity policies deepen long-standing inequalities and erode the social meaning of rights—especially the right to education. University autonomy, she explains, is being weakened through severe budget cuts, salary reductions, canceled scholarships, and halted research careers, leaving more than 1,200 approved researchers unable to take up their positions.

Beyond material erosion, Dr. Rovelli highlights the symbolic and epistemic dimensions of the crisis. The dismantling of ministries and agencies devoted to science, gender equality, and human rights is accompanied by a discursive offensive aimed at delegitimizing academic expertise. Denialist narratives—targeting gender, climate change, inequality, and public health—have become central to Milei’s political identity and echo global far-right trends linked to Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro. This, she argues, represents a broader pattern of “global anti-statist populism,” even as Milei introduces a uniquely Argentine “anti-national component.”

Yet, amid the crisis, Dr. Rovelli identifies emerging forms of resistance and democratic renewal. Trade unions, student organizations, feminist movements, and academic networks have mobilized nationwide and internationally. Universities remain “privileged loci of dispute and possibility,” capable of defending epistemic diversity and rebuilding the common good through legal challenges, collective action, and alliances with social movements.

By foregrounding the struggles surrounding knowledge, education, and public goods, this interview offers a timely and nuanced perspective on Argentina’s democratic future. It reveals how the battle over science and universities has become a defining arena in the contest between neoliberal retrenchment and democratic-popular visions of society.

Here is the edited transcript of our interview with Dr. Laura Rovelli, slightly revised for clarity and flow.

Milei Is Dismantling Argentina’s Knowledge Commons

Ultra-right-wing Argentine politician Javier Milei during the PASO elections in Buenos Aires, Argentina on August 13, 2023. Photo: Facundo Florit.

Dr. Laura Rovelli, thank you very much for joining our interview series. Let me start right away with the first question: Javier Milei’s program prioritizes radical market deregulation, dollarization, and the shrinking of the state. From a political theory perspective, how does this agenda challenge or redefine the idea of the common good in Argentina’s democracy?

Dr. Laura Rovelli: It’s a very interesting question because, in this scenario—one shaped by the conditions that current capitalism assumes in our region, based on unresolved historical tensions and inequalities—processes are unfolding that challenge the very notion of knowledge and education as common goods, as well as the idea of university education as a right. In this complex context, characterized by strong political fragmentation between various progressive movements, traditional neoconservative sectors, and, since 2023 and even earlier, extreme right forces, economic adjustment policies and different strategies are making life more precarious and affecting how we sustain common goods. Of course, this has deepened pre-existing inequalities by widening the gap in the distribution of social goods, including knowledge and education, and has reduced the political and social meaning of rights, even challenging the existence of the right to university or the right to education, and more broadly, the idea of knowledge as a common good.

Evidence-Based Governance Is Being Eroded Under Milei

Given your expertise in research policy and knowledge systems, how does Milei’s administration engage with—or marginalize—scientific and academic expertise in policymaking? What implications does this have for evidence-based governance?

Dr. Laura Rovelli: This is a crucial point. First of all, we might say that there are severe budget cuts being implemented. There is a real reduction in the salaries of teaching, research, and administrative staff, as well as cuts in scholarships, funding for research and outreach projects, and in the infrastructure and operational capacity of universities. This explicitly weakens their institutional framework and undermines their autonomy.

Secondly, the government has dismantled science, technology, and innovation bodies, agencies, departments, and programs linked to higher education, science, human rights, and culture, while also intensifying trends toward the commercialization and privatization of education and knowledge in general.

In addition, the recruitment of research careers has been at a standstill since December 2023, affecting more than 1,200 researchers who have been approved but have not been able to take their positions in the scientific system. There are very few openings for new recruits, and this has already led to a 20% drop in the number of applicants for scientific careers and doctoral and postdoctoral fellowships.

Third, the government has deployed anti-science and denialist rhetoric that seeks to discredit and undermine the institutions of science and higher education. In particular, there has been a denial or disqualification of issues such as gender, inclusion, inequality, and climate change. For example, state agencies dealing with gender and human rights issues have been dismantled, such as the Ministry of Women and the Argentine National Institute Against Discrimination, created in the mid-1990s. At the school system level, the implementation of a comprehensive sex education law, created at the beginning of the 21st century, has been subsumed into emotional literacy programs and training led by private organizations.

There is also a growing threat to the social sciences, humanities, and arts, which have been displaced from the research agenda in favor of technical areas considered “productive,” such as energy, mining, health, and genomics. In this context, the erosion of the evidence base for policymaking is compounded by government rhetoric that mixes false and biased information with a strong, aggressive tone in its interventions.

Public Education Is a Battleground in Argentina’s Democratic Crisis

Large crowds march nationwide in defence of universities and public education in Argentina—one of the biggest rallies of President Javier Milei’s government, with estimates from 100,000 to 500,000 on April 23, 2024. Photo: Dreamstime.

Historically, Argentina’s public education system has been central to shaping civic identity and democratic values. How do you assess its current role in the face of Milei’s anti-establishment discourse and market-oriented reforms?

Dr. Laura Rovelli: Clearly, the Argentine university system has traditionally been characterized by a public state matrix that constitutes its identity. This can be observed quantitatively—in terms of enrollment, distribution, supply, and the weight of public state sector resources—and symbolically, due to the central role played by national universities within higher education institutions, reflecting a system with a low level of privatization compared with other countries in our region. However, in recent years, there has been an exacerbation of privatization and commodification processes in higher education. This is not new, but it has been intensified under the Milei administration.

In that sense, we can say that Argentina is facing one of the deepest crises in its higher education and scientific systems since the return of democracy in 1983. To mention some figures: in terms of gross domestic product, the university budget fell from 0.72% in 2023 to 0.57% in 2024 and is estimated to drop to 0.43% in 2025. The real salaries of professors have also declined during the Milei administration, by almost 30% compared with November 2023.

Additionally, the President’s refusal to implement the 2025 University Financing Law—a bill approved by an overwhelming majority in both chambers of Congress that aims solely to restore funding lost due to inflation—leaves the system without a basic foundation to function. By postponing its implementation, the executive power disregards the separation of powers and violates established rights in our democratic system.

So, in this scenario, the role of Argentina’s public education system in shaping civic identity and democratic values is under siege and threatened, yet it remains a place of dispute and tension—and also a space of possibility for building more democratic educational and social projects, as those of us who are fighting to defend the public system continue to do.

Anti-University Narratives Are Fueling Censorship and Harassment

Milei and his allies have criticized public universities as “ideologically captured.” How do such narratives affect academic freedom and the social legitimacy of higher education as a space for critical thought and democratic engagement?

Dr. Laura Rovelli: Clearly, academic freedom in this context is being affected in different ways and through various actions by the government. There are harassment, persecution, and censorship of academic teachers, researchers, scientists, and artists, alongside the promotion of hate speech and violence. In material terms, there has been an elimination of opportunities for dialogue and collective bargaining with teachers’ unions and trade unions. There are also harassment and expulsion of members of migrant academic communities, as well as barriers to international academic mobility.

These measures restrict research agendas and weaken the connection between academia, local issues, public policy, and global consensus on key matters such as health and the environment. For example, the Argentine government announced its withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO) in February 2025. Although this process faces legal obstacles and its implementation remains under debate, many civil and academic movements are fighting against it. The government’s decision is based on alleged differences in health management and the claim that international bodies interfere with national sovereignty—echoing the rhetoric of US President Donald Trump.

There are, therefore, many consequences of these attacks on science, knowledge, and academic freedom in Argentina today.

The Commodification of Knowledge Is No Accident

Large crowds march nationwide in defence of universities and public education in Argentina—one of the biggest rallies of President Javier Milei’s government, with estimates from 100,000 to 500,000. The Congress building stands beside the marching crowd, and a raised sign reads “The Homeland is not for sale” in Buenos Aires on April 23, 2024. Photo: Dreamstime.

From your work on knowledge and open science as commons, how might we understand education itself—as both a public good and a political battleground—in Argentina’s ongoing struggle between neoliberal and democratic-populist projects?

Dr. Laura Rovelli: Regarding knowledge and science as a common good, Argentina was one of the first countries in the region to have, for example, an open access law. Public universities are the main promoters of diamond open access in the region—that is, an open access model where you don’t have to pay to publish or to read. There is also a vigorous movement of citizen science, scientific outreach, and university extension—what we call here the relationship with society—that is mainly led by universities. So, it’s not a coincidence that these institutions, the universities, are the targets of aggression and cutbacks by a pro-market and anti-statist government, and that through state defunding, private education and the commodification of knowledge are explicitly promoted.

In Argentina’s polarized climate, can any political actor—including the opposition—still credibly articulate a notion of the common good that transcends ideological fragmentation and social resentment?

Dr. Laura Rovelli: It is a very complex process at the moment, but we are confident that it is possible, in the medium and long term, to recover this notion and to strengthen the idea and the practices of common goods, particularly through sub-national and local governments, and also in dialogue with universities and social and territorial movements in Argentina.

Argentina’s Knowledge Sector Has Become a Hub of Organized Resistance

People holding books aloft from surrounding buildings join massive nationwide protests in defence of universities and public education in Argentina. One of the largest rallies of President Javier Milei’s government—drawing an estimated 100,000 to 500,000 people—fills Buenos Aires on April 23, 2024. A banner reads, “Public University for Everyone, Always.” Photo: Dreamstime.

How have trade unions, student movements, feminist groups, and universities responded to Milei’s agenda? Do you see these actors as potential sources of democratic renewal or as fragmented voices of resistance?

Dr. Laura Rovelli: There are many movements of resistance, and they are potential sources of democratic renewal. Focusing particularly on universities and science movements, higher education and scientific institutions have implemented many legal measures. They have worked closely together—for example, the National Inter-University Council remains united and has drawn up different measures, such as legal actions. They drafted the university funding bill that was presented in Congress to secure and guarantee university funding. They have made several formal requests to the government, rejected the reduction of the 2026 budget, and, of course, led federal mobilizations across the country with the support of unions and students. They have coordinated various actions to defend public goods, education, and the public education system.

We also have another important network, the Argentine Network of Science and Technology Institutes’ Authorities, which has made progress in organizing mass demonstrations with the support of ordinary citizens. They have gathered international backing and submitted requests for access to public information on scientific issues, which have been denied by the government. They are also working in different sessions to coordinate strategies and actions to demand funding resources for the scientific sector and the appointment of authorities in several areas of science that remain vacant. There is also a lack of management in the scientific sector because the government has refused to approve or assign leadership positions.

Additionally, through the Latin American Council of Social Sciences, a program on qualitative and comparative studies in the Americas has been funded to promote comparative research and expand alliances between teachers and students. At universities, deliberative and collegial spaces in some institutions have been strengthened, and some are beginning to develop protocols and action plans in response to threats against students or professors. These are some of the examples I would like to highlight.

Milei’s Project Echoes Trump and Bolsonaro

Do you see Milei’s libertarian populism as part of a broader Latin American or global pattern of anti-statist populism—perhaps connected to figures like Bolsonaro or Trump—or as a uniquely Argentine phenomenon?

Dr. Laura Rovelli: No, of course, I believe that Milei’s libertarian populism is part of a broader global anti-statist populism. He is very much in dialogue with President Trump—he admires him. He also has contact with Bolsonaro. He’s not unique, but there is a component that many colleagues in political studies have highlighted: Milei has an anti-national component that is not as present in the cases of Bolsonaro or Trump. So that is something, if we may say, singular to his profile. But of course, he is in dialogue with a more global extreme right-wing movement.

Education Is the Key Arena for Restoring Democratic Purpose

And lastly, Dr. Rovelli, looking forward, what political, institutional, or civic initiatives could help restore faith in democratic governance and reconstruct a shared sense of purpose—the common good—in Argentina’s fractured public sphere?

Dr. Laura Rovelli: The role of universities and education in general is a key point. They are privileged loci or spaces of dispute and tension surrounding different educational, knowledge, science, and society projects that are in conflict in those spaces, where common goods and public goods—epistemic diversity—and substantive possibilities for democratization face critical setbacks in this scenario.

So, there are some initiatives of resistance, and also efforts to reposition more democratizing processes at universities and in educational spaces, that are very interesting. For example, the potential dynamism of subnational policies and local and inter-institutional alliances to curb or reverse unconstitutional or anti-democratic government measures; the complementarity of legal, political, epistemological, and pedagogical strategies to reverse coercion and harassment in educational settings; and the key role of regional and international alliances and coalitions of professors, students, and scientists in favor of academic freedom.

We should also mention the articulation and intersectorality with different social struggles of popular sectors—people who are displaced, harmed, or oppressed in our regions—and ultimately the proliferation of common deliberative, collegial, educational, and university projects in dialogue with society. These are some of the strategies and actions that we are carrying out in our systems.

KoenVossen2

Dr. Vossen: The Anti-Islam Core Is the Most Important Part of Wilders’s PVV

In an in-depth interview with the ECPS, Dr. Koen Vossen, political historian and lecturer at Radboud University, analyzes the ideological evolution and endurance of Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom (PVV). He stresses that “The anti-Islam core is absolutely the most important part of this party,” noting that despite tactical moderation, its fundamental worldview remains unchanged. According to Dr. Vossen, the PVV’s “one-man structure” and lack of internal democracy make it both flexible and fragile. Wilders’s “clash of civilizations” narrative, rooted in his early attachment to Israel, continues to shape his politics. As Dr. Vossen observes, media normalization, cultural anxieties, and declining institutional barriers have allowed the PVV to become a lasting—though polarizing—force in Dutch politics.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

In a wide-ranging interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS) following the Dutch general elections of October 29, 2025, Dr. Koen Vossen, a political historian and lecturer in political science at Radboud University, offers a nuanced analysis of the ideological evolution, strategic positioning, and organizational structure of Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom (PVV). Dr. Vossen, a leading scholar on Dutch populism and right-wing movements, situates the PVV within a broader European radical-right context while emphasizing its distinctly Dutch trajectory.

As Dr. Vossen underscores, “The anti-Islam core is absolutely the most important part of this party.” While the PVV has, over time, expanded its platform to include positions on welfare, housing, and law and order, these remain secondary to its central ideological fixation. The PVV, he explains, “is really basically one man… It is purely a matter of what Wilders wants, what he does, and what he likes.” This personalization of power, combined with the party’s lack of internal democracy, explains both its tactical flexibility and its chronic difficulty in governance.

Dr. Vossen traces Wilders’s ideological consistency to what he calls a “clash of civilizations” worldview, deeply informed by his “special connection with Israel.” Having worked on a kibbutz as a young man, Wilders came to see Israel as “the main buffer against Islamization.” This perspective not only anchors the PVV’s foreign policy but also shapes its domestic narrative of cultural defense. According to Dr. Vossen, Wilders’s “absolute core ideology is this anti-Islam ideology,” while his steadfast pro-Israel stance serves as both a symbolic and programmatic pillar in PVV discourse.

On the domestic front, Dr. Vossen attributes the PVV’s durability to a combination of structural and contingent factors: the decline of pillarized institutions, the fragmentation of the Dutch party system, and the normalization of far-right rhetoric through mediaamplification. “Over the last ten years,” he notes, “we’ve seen the clear emergence of a very right-wing media… strongly conservative and very much anti-left. ‘Left’ as a word, as a concept, has almost become an insult in the Netherlands.” The weakening of social intermediaries and the culturalization of political conflict, he argues, have made space for a stable radical-right electorate of roughly 30%.

Despite periodic moderation—what Wilders once called putting his ideas “in the freezer”—Dr. Vossen believes the PVV’s ideological substance remains intact. Even temporary participation in government, he argues, only suspends rather than transforms its radicalism. The 2025 elections, he concludes, show both the limits and persistence of Dutch populism: a movement still revolving around one man, one message, and one enduring enemy.

Here is the edited transcript of our interview with Dr. Koen Vossen, slightly revised for clarity and flow.

Women’s March Demonstration — Protesters take to the streets of Eugene, Oregon, despite the rain. Photo: Catherine Avilez.

Virtual Workshop Series — Session 6: “Populism and the Crisis of Representation –Reimagining Democracy in Theory and Practice”

Please cite as:
ECPS Staff. (2025). “Virtual Workshop Series — Session 6: Populism and the Crisis of Representation –Reimagining Democracy in Theory and Practice.” European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). November 13, 2025. https://doi.org/10.55271/rp00118

 

On November 13, 2025, the ECPS, in collaboration with Oxford University, held the sixth session of its Virtual Workshop Series, “We, the People” and the Future of Democracy: Interdisciplinary Approaches. Under the skillful moderation of Professor Ilhan Kaya (Wilfrid Laurier University, Canada), the session featured Dr. Jonathan Madison, Dr. João Mauro Gomes Vieira de Carvalho, and Associate Professor Andreea Zamfira, who examined how populism both mirrors and magnifies democracy’s crisis of representation. Their analyses, complemented by insightful discussant interventions from Dr. Amir Ali and Dr. Amedeo Varriale, generated a vibrant dialogue on institutional resilience, digital disruption, and the reconfiguration of democratic legitimacy in an age of populist contention.

Reported by ECPS Staff

On November 13, 2025, the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), in collaboration with Oxford University, convened Session 6 of its ongoing Virtual Workshop Series, “We, the People” and the Future of Democracy: Interdisciplinary Approaches. This session, titled “Populism and the Crisis of Representation: Reimagining Democracy in Theory and Practice,” brought together a distinguished group of scholars from political science, sociology, and democratic theory to examine one of the defining questions of our age—how populism both reflects and reshapes the crisis of democratic representation.

Under the capable and engaging chairmanship of Professor Ilhan Kaya (Visiting Professor at Wilfrid Laurier University, Canada; formerly of Yildiz Technical University, Turkey), the session unfolded with remarkable intellectual rigor and fluidity. Professor Kaya’s moderation ensured a balanced and inclusive dialogue among the presenters, discussants, and participants, fostering an atmosphere of critical reflection and open exchange.

The session featured three compelling presentations. Dr. Jonathan Madison (Governance Fellow, R Street Institute) opened with “De-Exceptionalizing Democracy: Rethinking Established and Emerging Democracies in an Age of Liberal Backsliding.” His paper challenged conventional hierarchies between “established” and “emerging” democracies, arguing that institutional resilience—particularly the robustness of liberal institutions—rather than wealth or longevity, determines a democracy’s ability to withstand populist pressures.

Next, Dr. João Mauro Gomes Vieira de Carvalho (LabPol/Unesp and GEP Critical Theory, Brazil) presented “Mobilizing for Disruption: A Sociological Interpretation of the Role of Populism in the Crisis of Democracy.” His intervention explored populism as a sociological manifestation of democracy’s structural contradictions, emphasizing the interplay of economic inequality, charismatic leadership, and digital communication in the destabilization of representative institutions.

Finally, Associate Professor Andreea Zamfira (University of Bucharest) delivered “Daniel Barbu’s and Peter Mair’s Theoretical Perspectives on Post-Politics and Post-Democracy.” She advanced a sophisticated conceptual framework distinguishing between democratic and strategic populisms and called for reclaiming political science’s critical vocation amid the hollowing of democratic politics in the neoliberal era.

The presentations were followed by incisive discussant interventions from Dr. Amir Ali (Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi) and Dr. Amedeo Varriale (University of East London) whose reflections broadened the theoretical and comparative scope of the session. Their critiques and elaborations inspired an engaging debate that continued into the Q&A session, where Professor Kaya adeptly guided a lively, cross-regional discussion on the transnational diffusion of populism and the institutional responses to democratic backsliding.

In sum, Session 6 stood out as an exemplary exercise in interdisciplinary dialogue—anchored by Professor Kaya’s thoughtful moderation and enriched by a diverse array of perspectives that collectively illuminated the multifaceted relationship between populism, representation, and the evolving fate of democracy in the twenty-first century.

 

Dr. Jonathan Madison: “De-Exceptionalizing Democracy: Rethinking Established and Emerging Democracies in an Age of Liberal Backsliding”

Supporters of Brazil’s former President (2019–2022) Jair Bolsonaro hold signs during a demonstration in São Paulo, Brazil, on September 7, 2025. Photo: Dreamstime.

In his thought-provoking presentation, Dr. Jonathan Madison examined one of the most pressing paradoxes of contemporary politics: Why some established democracies have proven fragile in the face of populist authoritarianism, while certain so-called “emerging” democracies have demonstrated remarkable resilience. Drawing on a comparative analysis of the United States and Brazil, Dr. Madison challenged conventional assumptions about democratic consolidation and offered a compelling argument for rethinking how resilience is conceptualized in the age of democratic backsliding.

Rethinking Democratic Backsliding

Dr. Madison began by noting that, since the end of the Second World War, the United States has been widely regarded as the paradigmatic liberal democracy, while Brazil has struggled to maintain democratic stability amid recurring episodes of military rule and institutional volatility. Yet the trajectories of both nations under populist leadership—Donald Trump in the United States and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil—suggest a striking reversal of expectations. Whereas Brazil has, at least so far, managed to contain and punish anti-democratic actors, the United States has continued to experience deep institutional erosion and mounting threats to liberal norms.

This observation, Dr. Madison argued, invites a critical reconsideration of the analytical divide between “consolidated” and “emerging” democracies—a divide that has long underpinned political-science typologies. He presented three key findings: First, that Brazil’s liberal institutions have proven more resilient than those of the United States; second, that liberal, rather than strictly democratic, institutions are the decisive bulwark against populist authoritarianism; and third, that the conventional distinction between established and emerging democracies fails to predict resilience in the present era of backsliding.

Liberal vs. Democratic Institutions

A central conceptual contribution of Dr. Madison’s paper lies in his insistence on differentiating between democratic and liberal institutions. Democratic institutions refer to the procedures of electoral competition—regular elections, party systems, and voting mechanisms. Liberal institutions, by contrast, include independent courts, separation of powers, oversight agencies, and constitutional protections for individual rights. According to Dr. Madison, much of the existing literature on backsliding conflates these two domains, obscuring the fact that it is liberal institutions—rather than electoral ones—that are most often targeted and eroded by populist leaders.

Populist authoritarians such as Trump and Bolsonaro, he emphasized, have rarely campaigned on overtly anti-democratic platforms. Instead, they have portrayed themselves as embodiments of the “popular will” and have weaponized democratic legitimacy against liberal constraints. In this sense, democracy has not been rejected but appropriated as a rhetorical tool for dismantling the liberal guardrails that limit executive power.

Competing Explanations: Delivery vs. Institutions

Dr. Madison situated his argument within two major explanatory frameworks in the literature on backsliding. The delivery hypothesis attributes democratic erosion to governments’ failures to provide socioeconomic benefits—declining industrialization, rising inequality, and insecurity—thereby driving citizens toward anti-system alternatives. The institutional hypothesis, by contrast, focuses on how executives exploit loopholes and weakened checks to expand power.

While acknowledging both dynamics, Dr. Madison sided primarily with the institutional explanation, albeit with two refinements: First, that liberal institutions are the true targets of authoritarian populists, and second, that institutions are not self-executing. Their survival depends on political actors’ willingness to uphold them.

The Myth of Democratic Consolidation

Turning to the broader theoretical implications, Dr. Madison questioned the enduring validity of the distinction between “established” and “emerging” democracies. The twentieth-century paradigm, he noted, assumed that consolidated democracies—those of North America and Western Europe—had evolved beyond the fragilities of their “third-wave” counterparts. Yet, as recent developments show, phenomena once associated with Latin American politics—clientelism, corruption, and executive overreach—now thrive in the very heartlands of liberal democracy.

Brazil and the United States, he argued, invert the old hierarchy. The United States, supposedly the archetype of stability, has struggled to contain populist assaults, while Brazil, an “emerging” democracy with a much shorter democratic lineage, has successfully constrained executive excesses and imposed accountability after the fact.

Case Study I: The United States

Dr. Madison’s detailed case study of the United States underscored the weaknesses of its liberal architecture. Donald Trump’s rise in 2016, framed as a crusade on behalf of the “forgotten working class,” did not initially signal anti-democratic intent. Yet, once in office, Trump expanded executive authority through hundreds of executive orders, politicized the Department of Justice, and undermined independent oversight.

Institutional responses were inconsistent and often ineffectual. While the Supreme Court occasionally blocked his initiatives, partisan loyalty within Congress neutralized both impeachment efforts and subsequent investigations. The January 6th attack on the Capitol exposed the depth of the institutional malaise: Even in the face of direct insurrection, accountability mechanisms faltered.

Subsequent attempts to hold Trump legally responsible—including constitutional challenges under the 14th Amendment—were thwarted by judicial hesitation and partisan polarization. Dr. Madison argued that such failures illustrate how unwritten norms, rather than codified constraints, underpin much of the US system—norms that can easily be disregarded when political will collapses.

Case Study II: Brazil

By contrast, Dr. Madison presented Brazil as an unexpected success story of institutional resilience. Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency (2019–2022) resembled Trump’s in its populist style and attacks on liberal institutions. Bolsonaro ruled extensively through Medidas Provisórias (provisional measures), sought to politicize law enforcement, and vilified the Supreme Federal Tribunal. At rallies, he even declared, “I truly am the Constitution.”

Yet, Brazil’s institutions withstood these assaults. Congress allowed many provisional measures to expire or heavily amended them. The judiciary—particularly the Supreme Federal Tribunal—asserted itself repeatedly against executive encroachment. As Bolsonaro attempted to undermine the 2022 election by alleging fraud in Brazil’s electronic voting system, the country’s electoral justice apparatus acted swiftly, opening investigations and reaffirming the system’s integrity.

After Bolsonaro’s defeat, accountability followed with unprecedented speed. In 2023, the electoral court barred him from office for a decade for abusing presidential powers. In 2024, prosecutors indicted him for conspiring to subvert the election through a military coup attempt—marking the first time in Brazilian history that coup plotters faced prosecution.

Explaining Divergent Outcomes

Dr. Madison identified several structural factors explaining these divergent trajectories. Institutional design, he argued, was paramount. In Brazil, provisional measures expire automatically unless Congress acts—creating built-in limits on executive decree powers. In the United States, by contrast, executive orders and emergency powers are open-ended unless Congress intervenes, which it rarely does.

Party-system dynamics also played a role. The United States’ rigid two-party polarization has fostered a “siege mentality,” discouraging intra-party accountability. Brazil’s fragmented multiparty system, conversely, allowed legislators greater independence from the executive, enabling them to restrain Bolsonaro without threatening their own political survival.

Legal culture further deepens the contrast. Brazil’s civil-law system empowers its Supreme Court to act preemptively in defense of constitutional order, while the US common-law tradition restricts courts to adjudicating concrete disputes. Finally, Brazil’s collective memory of dictatorship has shaped a constitutional architecture that codifies protections the US continues to rely on as unwritten norms.

Liberal Institutions as the True Safeguard

Dr. Madison concluded by reiterating that the distinction between established and emerging democracies is increasingly untenable. The resilience of democracy depends not on age or wealth but on the vigor of liberal institutions and the political will to defend them. The Brazilian case demonstrates that even younger democracies can adapt and respond effectively to populist threats when constitutional design, judicial activism, and institutional pluralism align.

At the same time, Dr. Madison cautioned that Brazil’s assertive judiciary now faces its own dilemma: Overreach in defense of liberalism can itself undermine democratic pluralism if it suppresses legitimate dissent. Ultimately, the challenge is to strike a balance between constraint and participation—a task that requires constant vigilance in all democracies, established or emerging alike.

Through his nuanced comparative analysis, Dr. Madison’s paper offered a powerful reminder that no democracy is exceptional, immune, or permanently consolidated. In an age of populist volatility, resilience is earned, not inherited.

 

Dr. João Mauro Gomes Vieira de Carvalho: “Mobilizing for Disruption: A Sociological Interpretation of the Role of Populism in the Crisis of Democracy”

Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (Supremo Tribunal Federal – STF) at night, Brasília, Federal District, Brazil, August 26, 2018. Photo: Diego Grandi.

In his presentation,  Dr. João Mauro Gomes Vieira de Carvalho explored populism as a sociological phenomenon intimately bound to the structural crisis of modern democracy. His analysis situated populism not merely as a reaction to democratic failure but as a dynamic force that both exploits and deepens democracy’s internal contradictions.

Dr. Carvalho opened by asserting that democracy is undergoing a structural crisis, not a temporary malfunction. Populism, he argued, cannot be understood in isolation from this broader transformation of democratic systems. Rather than external threats, populist movements are symptomatic of inherent tensions between the normative aspirations of democracy—equality, freedom, and solidarity—and the systemic imperatives of capitalist societies, which operate through competition and the pursuit of particular interests.

These contradictions, rooted in modernity itself, cannot be resolved by political will alone. Drawing on the sociological insights of Claus Offe, Dr. Carvalho recalled that the mid-20th century democratic compromise—anchored in welfare-state regulation and competitive party politics—temporarily stabilized the tension between capitalism and democracy. However, the neoliberal deregulation of markets and the rise of new social movements since the 1980s disrupted that equilibrium. In his view, the global economic crisis of 2007–2008 and subsequent political realignments made Offe’s diagnosis more relevant than ever: The institutional structures that once mediated social conflict have lost legitimacy and efficacy, opening space for new, disruptive forms of populist mobilization.

Charismatic Leadership and the Production of Meaning

The second pillar of Dr. Carvalho’s argument focused on populist leadership as a form of charismatic authority that emerges precisely in times of systemic dislocation. Drawing on Max Weber’s classical concept and Ulrich Oevermann’s reinterpretations, he described populist leaders as figures who interpret social contradictions, giving them symbolic meaning and emotional coherence within a political community. Leaders such as Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Donald Trump in the United States, and Javier Milei in Argentina exemplify what Dr. Carvalho called disruptive charisma—a leadership style that mobilizes discontent by presenting itself as a redemptive force against corrupt elites and unresponsive institutions.

Such leaders do not merely exploit crises; they narrate them. Through simplified dichotomies between “the people” and “the elite,” they transform diffuse frustrations into moral conflicts, thereby legitimizing attacks on democratic institutions. The leader becomes both the interpreter and the embodiment of the people’s supposed will.

Digital Media and the Disruption of the Public Sphere

A central innovation in Dr. Carvalho’s framework concerns the reconfiguration of the public sphere by digital media. Social networks, he argued, have profoundly destabilized traditional forms of political communication. In the past, legacy media served as institutional gatekeepers, moderating the flow of information and maintaining a degree of discursive coherence. Digital platforms, by contrast, enable direct and immediate communication between leaders and followers—an illusion of intimacy that bypasses established mediating institutions such as political parties, journalists, and civil society organizations.

While this “direct connection” appears democratic, it is in fact highly mediated by algorithms and platform architectures designed to maximize engagement rather than deliberation. The populist leader’s ability to speak “directly” to the people through social media thus amplifies polarization and erodes the legitimacy of traditional institutions. Dr. Carvalho likened this transformation to economic deregulation: Just as markets freed from oversight can generate instability, the deregulation of communication creates a volatile and fragmented public sphere.

Populism as Mobilization Against Mediation

For Dr. Carvalho, the defining feature of contemporary populism is its mobilization against institutional mediation. Populist discourse constructs representative institutions—parliaments, courts, and the media—as obstacles to authentic popular sovereignty. By delegitimizing these intermediaries, populist leaders claim to restore democracy to “the people,” while in practice undermining the very mechanisms that sustain democratic pluralism.

He illustrated this logic through an empirical vignette from Brazil. Following Jair Bolsonaro’s defeat in the 2022 presidential election, supporters gathered outside government buildings chanting: “Get out, justice—supreme is the people.” This slogan, he noted, encapsulates the populist inversion of democratic legitimacy. The protesters demanded the removal of Supreme Court justices, not by name, but by function—attacking the institutional role itself. Their claim that “the people are supreme” asserted a direct, unmediated sovereignty that rejects the procedural and institutional framework through which democracy operates.

In this sense, the populist demand is paradoxically framed as more democratic: It invokes the name of the people to justify the dismantling of institutions designed to protect popular rule. The rhetoric of “immediate democracy” thus becomes a vehicle for anti-institutional mobilization.

Toward a Sociology of Democratic Disruption

Dr. Carvalho emphasized that his research remains part of an ongoing project aimed at developing a sociological framework for empirical investigation. His future work will explore how populist movements, particularly through digital media, reconfigure the relationship between leaders, followers, and institutions. He intends to conduct qualitative case studies examining how online mobilization interacts with the transformation of party politics—citing Italy’s Five Star Movement as a paradigmatic case of “digital direct democracy.”

He also proposed a nuanced concept of crisis as an open-ended moment of transformation rather than mere breakdown. A crisis, in his interpretation, is a juncture of potential reconfiguration—it can lead toward renewed democratization or toward authoritarian closure. Populist movements seek to occupy this liminal space, channeling uncertainty and discontent into collective action. Understanding how populist leaders interpret and operationalize such moments, he argued, is key to grasping democracy’s current vulnerability and possible renewal.

Dr. Carvalho concluded by stressing that populism should not be viewed as an anomaly or external threat to democracy but as an internal mode of contestation emerging from its structural contradictions. The interplay between capitalism’s systemic logic and democracy’s normative promises has produced recurring crises of legitimacy, which populist leaders exploit through affective communication and anti-institutional rhetoric.

His sociological interpretation reframes populism not as the pathology of democracy but as one of its revealing expressions—a mirror reflecting the unresolved tensions of modernity. By mobilizing citizens against mediation in the name of immediacy and authenticity, populist movements both expose and accelerate democracy’s ongoing transformation.

Dr. Carvalho’s intervention thus offered a rigorous and thought-provoking framework for analyzing the sociopolitical mechanisms through which populism “mobilizes for disruption” in an era where democracy’s very foundations are being redefined by digital technologies, structural inequalities, and the erosion of institutional trust.

 

Associate Professor Andreea Zamfira: “Daniel Barbu’s and Peter Mair’s Theoretical Perspectives on Post-Politics and Post-Democracy”

A rear view of people with placards and posters on global strike for climate change. Photo: Dreamstime.

In her intellectually rich and methodologically reflective presentation, Associate Professor Andreea Zamfira advanced a powerful analytical framework for reinterpreting populism within the broader crisis of contemporary democracy. Rather than approaching populism as a pathology or deviation, she argued that it must be seen as a reaction—a symptom and sometimes a corrective—to the structural transformations that have hollowed out the meaning and substance of democratic politics.

Populism Reconsidered: Between Democratic and Anti-Democratic Forms

Dr. Zamfira began by situating her work in dialogue with previous presentations at the workshop, notably that of Dr. Carvalho. While concurring with the notion that democracy faces a structural crisis, she raised a crucial question: which populism are we addressing—the democratic or the anti-democratic? This question framed her broader argument that the contemporary conceptual landscape surrounding populism has become increasingly blurred, both in academia and in public discourse.

She noted that populism can be studied through several lenses—ideological, strategic, or discursive—but that the persistent conflation of these dimensions has led to confusion. Particularly, she distinguished between ideological (or democratic) populism and strategic populism. The former represents a normative and legitimate effort to reclaim political agency and representation in the name of the people, while the latter functions as a manipulative instrument within the spectacle of modern politics.

Citing the French political theorist Pierre Rosanvallon, Dr. Zamfira emphasized that populism—although often criticized for its anti-pluralist tendencies—can perform a democratic corrective function, exposing the deficits of representation and the alienation of citizens from political elites. In this sense, ideological populism reflects an authentic desire to re-politicize public life and re-anchor democracy in the sovereignty of the demos. By contrast, strategic populism is tied to the “spectacularization” and “theatricalization” of politics in the media age, where populism becomes a performance rather than a project.

The Positive and Negative Faces of Populism

Drawing on the works of Peter Mair, Philippe Schmitter, and Richard Katz, Dr. Zamfira reminded the audience that populism, despite its risks, may also yield positive outcomes. It can compel traditional parties—detached from society and reduced to electoral machines—to reconnect with citizens or face obsolescence. Democratic populism, in this sense, acts as an agent of renewal within a stagnant political order.

This approach, she argued, departs from the mainstream portrayal of populism as an inherently destructive or extremist force. While populist leaders and movements can indeed threaten liberal norms, ideological populism—understood as a set of ideas rather than as a strategy—offers a deeper philosophical and sociological insight into the nature of political legitimacy and popular sovereignty. For Dr. Zamfira, this theoretical differentiation is crucial for restoring balance and nuance to contemporary analyses of populism.

Revisiting Barbu and Mair: Diagnosing Post-Politics and Post-Democracy

Dr. Zamfira then turned to her two central interlocutors: Daniel Barbu, a Romanian political philosopher and historian, and Peter Mair, the late Irish political scientist. Both thinkers, she argued, provided penetrating accounts of the erosion of representative democracy—what Mair termed “the hollowing of Western democracy” and Barbu called “the absent republic.”

Peter Mair’s Ruling the Void: The Hollowing of Western Democracy (2013) was presented as a seminal work for understanding how European democracies have lost their representational vitality. Mair traced the growing gap between political elites and citizens, arguing that parties have withdrawn from their societal roots while citizens, in turn, have disengaged from formal politics. The result is a “democratic void” in which electoral mechanisms persist, but meaningful political contestation declines.

Daniel Barbu, in The Absent Republic (1999), diagnosed a parallel condition in post-communist Europe. In his account, democracy has become formally present but substantively absent: The state operates according to its own self-referential logic of power rather than the will of its citizens. Popular sovereignty, while preserved as a rhetorical principle, is emptied of real influence. The republic, in Barbu’s phrase, becomes “absent” because its institutions no longer mediate between society and power.

Dr. Zamfira suggested that despite their distinct intellectual traditions, both thinkers converge on a shared diagnosis: The weakening of the link between rulers and ruled. Their reflections articulate the broader transition from politics to post-politics—a condition of depoliticization in which fundamental political questions are displaced by managerial and technocratic decision-making—and from democracy to post-democracy, where formal procedures remain but substantive pluralism and ideological conflict erode.

The Crisis of Political Science and the Loss of Critical Function

In a particularly reflective segment, Dr. Zamfira extended Barbu’s critique to academia itself. She argued that much of contemporary political science has become complicit in the post-political condition it describes. Echoing Barbu’s contention that political science is increasingly a “discourse that accompanies power,” she lamented its drift away from critique toward technocratic neutrality.

Political science, she argued, must reclaim its critical vocation as the conscience of democracy. The discipline’s task is not merely to measure political behavior but to interrogate the structures of power that constrain democratic agency. In the current intellectual climate—marked by polarization and conceptual simplification—this reflexive and critical function is more necessary than ever.

Populism as Effect, Not Cause, of Democratic Erosion

Dr. Zamfira challenged the prevailing tendency to treat populism as the cause of democratic backsliding. Instead, drawing on both Barbu and Mair, she proposed that populism should be seen as an effect of structural democratic erosion. The rise of populist discourse reflects the profound disconnect between politics and society—a void left by depoliticized elites, bureaucratic governance, and the dominance of market rationality.

Depoliticization, she explained, transfers decision-making from elected representatives to unelected experts and administrative bodies. As Mair observed, governance becomes “about people, not by them.” In such a context, populism emerges as a reaction—a demand to restore voice, representation, and conflict to a technocratic order that has rendered citizens spectators rather than participants.

The Road to Post-Democracy

Building on Colin Crouch’s notion of post-democracy, Dr. Zamfira outlined the broader trajectory of this transformation. Post-democracy is characterized by the persistence of democratic forms—elections, parties, and constitutions—without their substantive content. Ideological contestation gives way to managerial consensus; citizens remain nominally sovereign, but real power migrates toward economic elites, corporate actors, and international institutions such as the European Union or the World Trade Organization.

Citing Eric Schattschneider’s classic distinction between government by the people (the pluralist model) and government for the people (the elitist model), Dr. Zamfira argued that Western democracies have steadily moved toward the latter since the 1990s. The transition from pluralism to elitism, she suggested, has eroded the participatory foundations of democratic life.

Reclaiming the Critical Space for Democracy

In conclusion, Dr. Zamfira issued a clear call to re-evaluate both the academic and political treatment of populism. When elitist models of democracy dominate, all populist discourses—whether democratic or authoritarian—risk being delegitimized as extremist or irrational. This conflation, she warned, blinds political science to the genuine democratic energies that may animate certain populist movements.

To recover the integrity of democratic theory, Dr. Zamfira urged scholars to re-engage with populism’s critical dimension—as a response to alienation, not merely as a threat to order—and to reclaim the discipline’s role as democracy’s critical conscience. Her intervention stood out as both theoretically rigorous and normatively committed, illuminating the necessity of nuanced reflection in a time when democracy’s form endures but its meaning is at risk of disappearing.

 

Discussant’s Feedback: Dr. Amir Ali

Photo: Dreamstime.

Dr. Amir Ali, Associate Professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University (India), offered a deeply engaging and intellectually expansive intervention as discussant, responding to three presentations. His comments demonstrated a remarkable comparative and theoretical breadth, drawing on experiences from India, as well as on key works in democratic theory and political economy.

Beginning with Dr. Jonathan Madison’s paper, Dr. Ali expressed broad sympathy with its analytical depth while identifying a key conceptual tension. He argued that Dr. Madison placed “too much explanatory weight” on the liberal dimension of democracy, implicitly assuming that liberal institutions could redeem democracy from its contemporary crisis. Invoking Canadian political theorist C.B. Macpherson, Dr. Ali reminded the audience that “liberal democracy” is a hyphenated idea in which the liberal element historically dominates and undermines the democratic one. This imbalance, he suggested, has led to a steady evisceration of democracy under liberal capitalism.

To reinforce this point, Dr. Ali referenced Timothy Mitchell’s Carbon Democracy (2011), arguing that the United States’ current democratic turmoil, epitomized by the Trump phenomenon, represents the “chickens of democracy coming home to roost.” The US project of exporting liberal democracy abroad, he contended, resulted in “carbon copies” of democracy—thin, depleted, and formalistic versions of a system already hollowed out at home.

While agreeing with Dr. Madison’s call to collapse the analytical divide between “established” and “emerging” democracies, Dr. Ali challenged the implicit optimism in liberal institutionalism. From his vantage point in India, he observed that constitutional institutions—such as the Election Commission—had been systematically weakened by populist-authoritarian governments. What was once a robust guardian of electoral integrity had become, in his words, “a toothless tiger.” This erosion of institutional autonomy, he argued, undermines any faith in liberal institutions as bulwarks against democratic backsliding.

Populism, Capital, and the Fractured Public Sphere

Turning to Dr. Carvalho’s sociological interpretation of populism, Dr. Ali praised the paper’s focus on the contradictions of democracy but urged a stronger integration of the contradictions of capitalism into the analysis. Populism, he argued, arises not merely from democratic tensions but from deeper economic dislocations produced by global neoliberalism—the “continuous defeat of labour by capital” over the last four decades. The populist construction of “the people,” he contended, serves to obscure these material contradictions by redirecting discontent away from structural inequality and toward cultural or institutional scapegoats.

Dr. Ali also expanded Dr. Carvalho’s discussion of the public sphere. Drawing on Jürgen Habermas’s theory of communicative rationality, he argued that the fragmentation wrought by digital media is not simply a weakening of the public sphere but its obliteration. “Social media has smashed the public sphere into smithereens,” he remarked, noting how algorithmic logics and data manipulation—exemplified by the Cambridge Analytica scandal during the Brexit campaign—have reconfigured political consciousness itself. This transformation, he warned, poses an “existential threat”to democracy, as it dissolves the conditions for collective deliberation that once made democratic politics possible.

The Question of “Good” and “Bad” Populisms

In response to Associate Professor Andreea Zamfira’s paper, Dr. Ali began with initial disagreement but ultimately expressed appreciation for her nuanced approach. He questioned her distinction between “democratic” (good) and “anti-democratic” (bad) populisms, suggesting that populism, whether left- or right-wing, tends inevitably toward authoritarianism. Citing India’s political history, he invoked Indira Gandhi’s left-wing populism of the 1970s—which culminated in the suspension of democracy during the Emergency—as an example of how populist appeals, even when grounded in egalitarian rhetoric, can precipitate democratic backsliding.

Dr. Ali’s skepticism was rooted in his observation that populism’s logic of personalization and mass mobilization undermines institutional checks and pluralist deliberation, regardless of ideological orientation. In this sense, populism’s “democratic” variants may share more structural affinities with authoritarianism than is often acknowledged.

Political Science, Technocracy, and the Loss of Critique

Dr. Ali concluded his intervention with reflections that engaged Dr. Zamfira’s critique of political science as an increasingly accommodating discipline. He agreed that the field has too often become a “discourse that accompanies power” rather than interrogates it. Echoing her concern, he called for a revival of the discipline’s critical function, arguing that the marginalization of political theory and the ascendancy of technocratic and economic approaches have impoverished both scholarship and democratic imagination.

Returning to first principles, Dr. Ali proposed a return to Aristotle’s conception of politics as the master science—the discipline that encompasses the ends of all other human activities. The displacement of politics by economics and technology, he suggested, has produced not only a theoretical crisis but also the very political vacuum in which populism thrives. “Perhaps one way of countering populism,” he concluded, “is to reread Aristotle—again and again.”

Dr. Ali’s intervention stood out for its theoretical range, comparative insight, and critical acuity. By weaving together classical political philosophy, Marxian political economy, and lived experiences from India, he illuminated how global populism reflects the intertwined crises of capitalism, communication, and democratic representation. His commentary enriched the session’s intellectual dialogue, bridging empirical realities with enduring questions about democracy’s moral and philosophical foundations.

 

Discussant’s Feedback: Dr. Amedeo Varriale

Dr. Amedeo Varriale delivered an incisive and reflective intervention as discussant during the session, engaging critically and constructively with the presentations. His comments combined empirical insight, theoretical clarity, and comparative perspective, particularly drawing from his background in European political studies and his familiarity with both Western and Southern European populist experiences.

Dr. Varriale began by focusing on Dr. Madison’s paper. He praised it for its methodological precision, empirical richness, and conceptual originality, noting that it offers an important contribution to the academic debate on democratic backsliding. Dr. Madison’s central claim—that liberal institutions, rather than developmental indicators such as wealth or regime maturity, determine a state’s resilience to populist authoritarianism—was, according to Dr. Varriale, both compelling and empirically well-supported.

He commended Dr. Madison’s comparative analysis between Brazil and the United States, emphasizing how the paper demonstrated the Brazilian judiciary and legislature’s stronger capacity to constrain illiberal executives compared to their US counterparts. The examples of Bolsonaro’s medidas provisórias and Trump’s use of executive orders, emergency decrees, and partisan manipulation of independent agencies, he said, vividly illustrated how populist leaders “tamper with liberal aspects of democracy” while maintaining democratic façades.

Dr. Varriale found particular value in the way the paper foregrounded liberal institutions as guardians against populist excess, suggesting that it advanced the debate beyond the more traditional focus on populism’s discursive or ideological dimensions. However, he used Dr. Madison’s findings to open a broader reflection on the decline of classical liberalism in American conservatism. He observed that the Republican Party, once rooted in liberal individualism, free markets, and civic patriotism, had under Donald Trump devolved into a populist, crypto-authoritarian movement, marked by protectionism, conspiracy thinking, and xenophobia. This ideological transformation, he argued, represented one of the most striking manifestations of how populism can hollow out long-established party traditions and erode the liberal core of democratic politics.

Polarization, Populist Cycles, and the Limits of Centrist Politics

Expanding his remarks, Dr. Varriale reflected on the polarized state of American politics, where extremes on both right and left have squeezed out centrism, classical liberalism, and social democracy. Drawing on Benjamin Moffitt’s concept of “anti-populist consensus politics,” he expressed skepticism that such a consensus could re-emerge in a society as demographically and culturally fragmented as the United States. In his view, the disappearance of a shared political middle—combined with deep divisions between metropolitan and rural America—jeopardizes the country’s ability to continue functioning as the “leader of the free world” in an increasingly multipolar order. He warned that, given these divisions, “there is no guarantee that after Trump there won’t be another Trump—or someone worse.”

Populism, Partyless Democracy, and the Crisis of Representation

Turning to the presentations by Dr. Carvalho and Dr. Zamfira, Dr. Varriale connected their insights to the work of Peter Mair and William Galston, both of whom had theorized the weakening of the representative link between citizens and political elites. He highlighted Mair’s distinction between democracy’s two pillars—popular sovereignty and constitutionalism—and argued that populism thrives by overemphasizing the former while undermining the latter. Populists, he noted, have “no issue with popular sovereignty or majority rule, but a deep aversion to the rule of law and minority protections.” This imbalance transforms democratic majoritarianism into illiberal governance.

Building on Dr. Carvalho’s sociological framework, Dr. Varriale linked this dynamic to the phenomenon of “partyless democracy,” where populist movements reject political parties as corrupt intermediaries and promote direct forms of plebiscitary participation. He drew on examples from Italy—particularly the Five Star Movement (M5S)—to illustrate how anti-elite and anti-party sentiment can morph into anti-political and anti-constitutional tendencies. The M5S’s efforts to abolish public funding for parties and drastically reduce the number of parliamentarians, he argued, risked turning politics into a domain accessible only to the wealthy and further eroding democratic pluralism.

Populism’s Dual Face: Corrective and Destructive

Dr. Varriale nuanced his critique by acknowledging, in agreement with Dr. Zamfira, that not all populisms are inherently anti-democratic. In certain historical contexts—such as Solidarity (Solidarność) in Poland or the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) in Mexico—populist movements have functioned as democratic correctives, challenging authoritarian elites and expanding political inclusion. Nonetheless, he cautioned that populism’s structural anti-pluralism—its conviction that only it represents the “true people”—renders it perpetually vulnerable to authoritarian outcomes. Whether on the left or the right, populism’s exclusionary logic and hostility to institutional mediation ultimately threaten the liberal core of democracy.

In closing, Dr. Varriale reiterated that the current populist zeitgeist is best understood as the product of a longstanding tension within democracy itself—between the popular and the constitutional dimensions. Populism amplifies one at the expense of the other, promising empowerment while eroding constraint. His intervention underscored the need for renewed scholarly and civic engagement with liberal institutions, representative mediation, and pluralist values if democracy is to withstand its contemporary trials.

Presenters’ Responses

Following the discussants’ insightful interventions by Dr. Amir Ali and Dr. Amedeo Varriale, the three presenters offered their concluding reflections. Their responses were thoughtful, collegial, and self-reflective, highlighting the intellectual complementarity of their research and the productive avenues for further development that emerged through the discussion.

Dr. Jonathan Madison began by expressing deep appreciation for the discussants’ thoughtful engagement, noting that the feedback illuminated new dimensions of his comparative study on democratic backsliding in Brazil and the United States. He particularly emphasized the intellectual convergence between his own paper and Dr. Carvalho’s work, remarking that their analyses “filled in some gaps for each other.” He acknowledged that the discussion, especially the points raised about social media and its role in reshaping democratic participation, had provided an important new perspective that he hoped to incorporate in future versions of his research. Dr. Madison reaffirmed that the intersection of institutional resilience, populist behavior, and digital disruption represents a crucial frontier in understanding contemporary democracy. 

Dr. João Mauro Gomes Vieira de Carvalho followed with a succinct and reflective response. He thanked both discussants for their rigorous and provocative assessments, emphasizing how the feedback would directly inform the ongoing development of his research project on populist mobilization and the structural crisis of democracy. Dr. Carvalho reiterated his appreciation for the interdisciplinary dialogue, noting that the comments had enriched his understanding of how populist discourse interacts with broader transformations in communication, capitalism, and political mediation. While he refrained from engaging in detailed debate, he emphasized that the exchange of ideas offered “something to think of and try to incorporate” into his evolving sociological framework. 

Associate Professor Andreea Zamfira provided the most extensive and reflective reply, directly addressing the points raised by both discussants. She began by thanking Dr. Ali and Dr. Varriale for their rigorous critiques, describing their interventions as intellectually stimulating and fruitful for her ongoing reflections.

Responding first to Dr. Ali, Dr. Zamfira acknowledged the value of his notion of the “populist construction of the people,” which she found conceptually intriguing and potentially useful for exploring populism as a reaction to capitalism and growing economic inequality. She clarified that her earlier distinction between “good” and “bad” populism was not intended as a moral hierarchy but as an analytical shorthand for differentiating “beneficial” and “pernicious” functions of populism within democratic regimes. Drawing on scholars such as Peter Mair and Richard Katz, she reiterated that certain populist movements can perform corrective functions by reactivating political participation and exposing representational deficits.

Addressing the discussion on the pandemic and populist governance, Dr. Zamfira agreed that populist leaders often managed the crisis poorly but contextualized this within a pre-existing technocratic drift in policymaking. Long before the pandemic, she argued, political decision-making had increasingly been justified through the rhetoric of urgency, expertise, and efficiency, rather than representation and deliberation. The pandemic, therefore, intensified rather than initiated this trend, placing populists in a reactive position against an already depoliticized public sphere.

She also strongly endorsed Dr. Ali’s call to restore the autonomy and critical function of political science, warning against its transformation into a technocratic discourse that “accompanies power.” For Dr. Zamfira, reclaiming this critical vocation is essential to understanding — and not merely diagnosing — democracy’s structural crisis.

Turning to Dr. Varriale’s comments, Dr. Zamfira nuanced her position on populism’s relationship with minorities and constitutionalism. While conceding that certain populist movements exhibit exclusionary, nationalist, or xenophobic tendencies, she argued that not all populisms are built on exclusion. In some cases, populism can function as a logic of articulation between the people and elites, incorporating marginalized groups into the political community. This inclusive variant, she noted, aligns with the interpretations of Pierre Rosanvallon and Peter Mair, who recognize populism’s potential to expand democratic participation under specific contexts.

In conclusion, Dr. Zamfira reiterated that populism should be understood as a symptom of democracy without a demos — a response to a representation void created by institutions that have lost their ability to reflect social expectations. Her closing reflections synthesized the session’s debates into a powerful theoretical statement: populism, far from being a monolith, represents the dynamic interplay between crisis, representation, and the enduring struggle to reclaim democracy’s social foundation.

Q&A Session

Photo: Dreamstime.

 

The Q&A session unfolded as an intellectually vibrant continuation of the day’s presentations and discussions. It deepened the exploration of the transnational dimensions of populism, the contextual dynamics of authoritarian drift, and the institutional and cultural factors shaping democratic resilience. The conversation was animated by thoughtful exchanges among the moderator, presenters, discussants, and audience members.

Opening the floor, Dr. Ilhan Kaya posed a fundamental question that framed the discussion: Is there a broader contextual or historical moment that explains the simultaneous rise of populist and authoritarian governments across diverse political systems—from India to the United States, from Turkey to Hungary and Brazil? He further inquired whether populism could be understood as a form of political “contagion,” spreading across borders through inspiration and imitation.

Responding first, Dr. Amir Ali argued that the post-2008 global financial crisis served as a decisive structural backdrop for the surge of populist movements. He identified 2016 as a symbolic turning point — the year of Donald Trump’s election and the Brexit referendum — that consolidated this wave. According to Dr. Ali, the economic dislocation of the late 2000s combined with mounting disillusionment toward neoliberal governance to produce fertile ground for anti-establishment politics. Populism, he suggested, emerged as both a reaction to economic precarity and a symptom of democratic malaise.

Building on this, Dr. Amedeo Varriale emphasized that populism’s spread has not been confined within national boundaries but has often evolved through transnational emulation. Drawing on examples from Central and Eastern Europe, he observed how leaders like Viktor Orbán in Hungary have inspired similar populist movements elsewhere, notably in Romania, where nationalist actors have consciously imitated Orbán’s rhetoric and political strategies. For Dr. Varriale, this demonstrated that populism functions as a transborder discourse, traveling through networks of ideological affinity, media exposure, and strategic learning.

Expanding the discussion, Dr. João Mauro Gomes Vieira de Carvalho introduced a sociological perspective, situating the populist wave within two interconnected global transformations: The economic crisis and digitalization. These processes, he argued, have created quasi-universal conditions—economic insecurity and the transformation of communication—that enable the proliferation of populist styles of leadership. Yet, Dr. Carvalho stressed that the expression of populism remains nationally contingent. The global conditions may be shared, but the ways in which populist movements interpret and adapt them depend on domestic political histories, institutional configurations, and leadership dynamics. His intervention underscored the necessity of combining structural explanations with detailed empirical analysis to grasp populism’s heterogeneous manifestations.

Memory, Institutions, and the Lessons of Dictatorship

ECPS’ Executive Chair Selcuk Gultasli directed a pointed question to Dr. Jonathan Madison, asking about the role of collective memory—specifically Brazil’s memory of military dictatorship—in reinforcing democratic resilience, in contrast to the United States, which lacks such a historical experience. Dr. Madison’s response highlighted the institutional legacy of Brazil’s 1988 Constitution, deliberately crafted to prevent a recurrence of authoritarianism. This historical consciousness, he explained, has endowed Brazilian democracy with a stronger normative and institutional defense against executive overreach. He contrasted this with the American political culture, where the prevailing belief that “it can’t happen here” fosters complacency toward democratic erosion.

Dr. Madison noted that Bolsonaro’s glorification of the military past ironically reinforced institutional vigilance, prompting legislative and judicial bodies to codify new legal protections against threats to democracy. By contrast, the United States’ absence of a lived experience of dictatorship has contributed to a weaker reflex of institutional self-preservation in the face of populist challenges.

The Trump Factor and Republican Conformity

Returning to the American context, Dr. Ilhan Kaya inquired about the Republican Party’s accommodation of Donald Trump, despite opposition from prominent figures like George W. Bush and Mitt Romney. Dr. Madison responded by emphasizing the structural and electoral logic of partisanship in the US: Once Trump redefined the Republican base, dissent became politically untenable. The survival instincts of legislators—dependent on party nomination and voter loyalty—made resistance a “losing strategy.” Those who opposed Trump, he observed, “are no longer in the party or in politics.” In a two-party system, the inability to form new right-wing alternatives, unlike in Brazil’s multi-party setting, has entrenched Trumpism within the Republican mainstream.

Dr. Amir Ali concluded this exchange with a literary reflection, recalling Sinclair Lewis’s 1935 novel It Can’t Happen Here, which envisioned an American demagogue eerily resembling Trump. The reference served as a sobering reminder that the specter of authoritarian populism in liberal democracies, once thought impossible, has long been imaginable—and remains profoundly relevant today.

Conclusion

Session 6 of the ECPS–Oxford Virtual Workshop Series offered a rigorous and multidimensional examination of the intricate relationship between populism and democracy’s representational crisis. Across the session’s three presentations and two discussant interventions, a coherent analytical thread emerged: Populism is not an external aberration but a constitutive symptom of democracy’s structural tensions. The dialogue underscored that the populist moment must be understood as both a mirror and a magnifier of the democratic malaise that stems from the erosion of liberal institutions, the commodification of politics, and the fragmentation of the public sphere.

Dr. Jonathan Madison’s comparative analysis of Brazil and the United States reconceptualized democratic resilience beyond the simplistic dichotomy of “established” and “emerging” democracies. His emphasis on the strength of liberal institutions—rather than developmental or historical pedigree—highlighted how institutional design and political will determine the capacity to withstand populist incursions. In contrast, Dr. João Mauro Gomes Vieira de Carvalho’s sociological approach situated populism within the structural contradictions of modernity, showing how capitalist imperatives and digital communication jointly destabilize traditional forms of political mediation. Finally, Associate Professor Andreea Zamfira extended this analysis into the domain of democratic theory, distinguishing between ideological (democratic) and strategic (instrumental) populisms, and urging a re-politicization of democracy through renewed scholarly critique.

The discussants, Dr. Amir Ali and Dr. Amedeo Varriale, deepened the debate by foregrounding global and comparative perspectives. Dr. Ali’s intervention emphasized the intersection of populism with neoliberal capitalism and the digital disintegration of the public sphere, while Dr. Varriale illuminated populism’s ambivalent role as both a democratic corrective and a vehicle for illiberal consolidation. Together, their insights reinforced the view that populism’s endurance reflects a deeper legitimation crisis rather than a transient political aberration.

Ultimately, Session 6 revealed that the future of democracy depends on restoring the delicate balance between popular sovereignty and institutional constraint. Defending liberal institutions is necessary but insufficient unless paired with a genuine effort to revive representation, pluralism, and critical engagement. Populism, in this light, serves as both a warning and a potential catalyst—an invitation to reimagine democracy not as a static form but as a living, contested process in need of perpetual renewal.

Election posters near the Binnenhof featuring Geert Wilders of the PVV in the foreground, The Hague, the Netherlands, October 12, 2025. Photo: Dreamstime.

Dr. Vossen: The Anti-Islam Core Is the Most Important Part of Wilders’s PVV

In an in-depth interview with the ECPS, Dr. Koen Vossen, political historian and lecturer at Radboud University, analyzes the ideological evolution and endurance of Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom (PVV). He stresses that “The anti-Islam core is absolutely the most important part of this party,” noting that despite tactical moderation, its fundamental worldview remains unchanged. According to Dr. Vossen, the PVV’s “one-man structure” and lack of internal democracy make it both flexible and fragile. Wilders’s “clash of civilizations” narrative, rooted in his early attachment to Israel, continues to shape his politics. As Dr. Vossen observes, media normalization, cultural anxieties, and declining institutional barriers have allowed the PVV to become a lasting—though polarizing—force in Dutch politics.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

In a wide-ranging interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS) following the Dutch general elections of October 29, 2025, Dr. Koen Vossen, a political historian and lecturer in political science at Radboud University, offers a nuanced analysis of the ideological evolution, strategic positioning, and organizational structure of Geert Wilders’s Party for Freedom (PVV). Dr. Vossen, a leading scholar on Dutch populism and right-wing movements, situates the PVV within a broader European radical-right context while emphasizing its distinctly Dutch trajectory.

As Dr. Vossen underscores, “The anti-Islam core is absolutely the most important part of this party.” While the PVV has, over time, expanded its platform to include positions on welfare, housing, and law and order, these remain secondary to its central ideological fixation. The PVV, he explains, “is really basically one man… It is purely a matter of what Wilders wants, what he does, and what he likes.” This personalization of power, combined with the party’s lack of internal democracy, explains both its tactical flexibility and its chronic difficulty in governance.

Dr. Vossen traces Wilders’s ideological consistency to what he calls a “clash of civilizations” worldview, deeply informed by his “special connection with Israel.” Having worked on a kibbutz as a young man, Wilders came to see Israel as “the main buffer against Islamization.” This perspective not only anchors the PVV’s foreign policy but also shapes its domestic narrative of cultural defense. According to Dr. Vossen, Wilders’s “absolute core ideology is this anti-Islam ideology,” while his steadfast pro-Israel stance serves as both a symbolic and programmatic pillar in PVV discourse.

On the domestic front, Dr. Vossen attributes the PVV’s durability to a combination of structural and contingent factors: the decline of pillarized institutions, the fragmentation of the Dutch party system, and the normalization of far-right rhetoric through media amplification. “Over the last ten years,” he notes, “we’ve seen the clear emergence of a very right-wing media… strongly conservative and very much anti-left. ‘Left’ as a word, as a concept, has almost become an insult in the Netherlands.” The weakening of social intermediaries and the culturalization of political conflict, he argues, have made space for a stable radical-right electorate of roughly 30%.

Despite periodic moderation—what Wilders once called putting his ideas “in the freezer”—Dr. Vossen believes the PVV’s ideological substance remains intact. Even temporary participation in government, he argues, only suspends rather than transforms its radicalism. The 2025 elections, he concludes, show both the limits and persistence of Dutch populism: a movement still revolving around one man, one message, and one enduring enemy.

Dr. Koen Vossen is a political historian and lecturer in political science at Radboud University.

Here is the edited transcript of our interview with Dr. Koen Vossen, slightly revised for clarity and flow.

Dutch Voters Long for Stability After Polarization Fatigue

Professor Koen Vossen, thank you very much for joining our interview series. Let me start right away with the first question: The recent Dutch election produced a dramatic reversal for the PVV, whose brief coalition participation ended in collapse, while D66 surged to the top of the polls. To what extent should we interpret this outcome as evidence of a structural electoral realignment favoring centrist, pro-EU forces—or as a temporary recalibration following the PVV’s troubled spell in government? In other words, are we witnessing a durable shift in voter preferences or merely the electoral consequences of perceived misgovernance?

Dr. Koen Vossen: I think both. Interpreting Dutch election results is always tricky because we are a country of minorities, so there are always more stories than one story in an election result.

What you saw in the last election was a longing for more stability—for a more stable coalition among a part of the electorate. People were fed up with the old polarization and longed for more centrist politics. That was absolutely there.

At the same time, you have also seen in the Netherlands that the border between the radical right and the center-right has somehow been blurred, especially in the conservative-liberal VVD, the party once led by Mark Rutte and now by Dilan Yeşilgöz. It has moved very much to the right and wanted an exclusively center-right coalition without Wilders’s party.

So, one could also interpret the result as support for this center-right coalition or as support for a more centrist coalition. At the same time, Wilders’s party still had about 17 or 18 percent of the vote. He lost some votes but remains the second-largest party in the Netherlands, so there are different stories here.

The Radical Right’s 30% Support Shows Structural Stability

Despite near-parity in seat totals, Geert Wilders appears politically isolated, as most mainstream parties again refuse coalition cooperation. Does this effective ‘cordon sanitaire’ signal the enduring resilience of Dutch party-system norms against radical-right institutionalization? Or does the continued aggregate strength of far-right parties (including FvD and JA21) indicate a deeper, longer-term transformation in the ideological landscape that may eventually erode such exclusionary practices?

Dr. Koen Vossen: The radical right maintained its position with about 30% of the vote. So, it’s still there—this 30%. They did not really lose in the last elections, but their support was divided among different parties, maybe even 35% in total. Previously, Wilders had the largest share of this radical-right vote—around 25%. The rest went to smaller radical-right parties, but now these smaller parties have grown, and most of the voters that Wilders lost went to them. So, there’s been more of a transfer of votes within this bloc than an overall loss. A small portion, maybe, went to the VVD—the conservative liberals who also tried to attract votes in the radical-right sphere. But in the end, there remains a fairly stable 30% of the Dutch electorate that supports these parties.

The PVV’s Core Is Anti-Islam

An elderly man holds a protest sign during a PEGIDA demonstration against the perceived Islamization of Europe in Enschede, the Netherlands on September 17, 2017. Photo: Dreamstime.

You argue that Wilders cannot be understood solely within the populist frame. How has the PVV’s ideological trajectory shifted from anti-establishment protest toward a more coherent political project, and what classifications better capture this evolution?

Dr. Koen Vossen: Populism has always been a thin ideology, so it needs other ideologies. In the case of the PVV, that has always been a strong nationalism and nativism, anti-immigration, and an anti-Islamic stance based on a “clash of civilizations” type of ideology, combined with a conservative law-and-order orientation. Since around 2010, you can see some tactical changes, but overall, the ideology has become quite clear and crystallized. Its main pillars are populism—with a very strong anti-elite sentiment—anti-immigration, welfare-state chauvinism, anti-Islam, and conservatism on law and order.

It should also be noted that the party is relatively progressive on some immaterial issues, such as gay marriage, abortion, and euthanasia policy—more so than many other parties. But on most other issues, it is quite conservative, particularly anti–climate policy. In that sense, the PVV is a fairly classic radical-right populist party, comparable to Rassemblement National (RN), Farage’s movement, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), or the Swedish Democrats (SD). Some of them even sit together in the European Parliament.

What distinguishes the PVV, however, is its very strong focus on Islam—this is quite specific to the party—and Wilders has been a pioneer in this regard. The party is also pro-Israel and relatively progressive when it comes to issues such as gay marriage, women’s emancipation, and abortion. These are the main ideological characteristics of the PVV.

Right-Wing Media Have Made the Radical Right the Only Alternative

You have written that the PVV has become increasingly normalized in Dutch politics. Which institutional mechanisms—parliamentary collaboration, media treatment, coalition signaling—have most contributed to this mainstreaming?

Dr. Koen Vossen: Media treatment is very important. Over the last ten years, we’ve seen the clear emergence of a very right-wing media. One could even compare it to Fox News–type outlets—strongly conservative and very much anti-left. The left wing has become the main enemy. “Left” as a word, as a concept, has almost become an insult in the Netherlands. “Leftist people” and similar terms are not neutral—they never were, of course, but this tendency has grown stronger.

The media treatment means that if the right-wing parties did not deliver in coalitions, the left was not seen as an alternative. Then the radical right became the alternative. If the radical right proved not to be the alternative, people looked to other right-wing parties—never to the left. The left has been out of the race, especially in these media. So, the radical right has become the alternative.

This also has to do with the fact that, in 2023, after eleven years of cordon sanitaire, the VVD decided to open the door again for collaboration with Wilders’s party, the PVV—purely strategically. They thought, we always have to go into coalitions, we always have to look to left-wing parties; now they wanted to look to a right-wing party, even an extreme right-wing party, to have more options. This proved to be a strategic blunder because now, for many parties, Wilders became an option. Before, they could always say, “Well, that’s a wasted vote because he will never govern.” But now it was not a wasted vote anymore—it became an option, and for a lot of these voters, even a better one.

So, helped by the media and by the end of the cordon sanitaire, one could say that the PVV emerged as the winner in 2023.

A newspaper rack displaying several Dutch newspapers, including De Telegraaf, Trouw, AD, and regional papers. Photo: Dreamstime.

Anti-Islam Is the Core; Everything Else Is Secondary

Anti-Islam alarmism remains central to the PVV. Do recent policy expansions toward welfare and housing reflect ideological maturation, tactical vote-seeking, or merely cosmetic adjustment that leaves the anti-Islam core intact?

Dr. Koen Vossen: The anti-Islam core is absolutely the most important part of this party. I say party, but the thing is, with the PVV, it’s really basically one man. Although he has more than 2.5 million votes, talking about the PVV—especially on a national level—is talking about one man: his considerations, his thinking, and his decisions. The rest is not really relevant. So, one has to look into his head to find out what he thinks, as there are no public discussions or debates in this party. There’s no party organization, no conferences, no party manifesto, or party newspaper. It is purely a matter of what Wilders wants, what he does, and what he likes. Wilders’s absolute core ideology is this anti-Islam ideology. The rest of it—maybe calling it purely tactical is a little too cynical—but it is certainly not the main issue for him.

PVV Support Is Driven by Cultural Fear, Not Economic Anxiety

To what degree has the erosion of pillarized structures and intermediary institutions created the social fragmentation necessary for PVV success? Do cultural anxieties outweigh economic grievances in explaining the party’s appeal?

Dr. Koen Vossen: I think it’s mainly a cultural matter—it’s all about immigration. These voters’ main concern is immigration, absolutely. Housing is second, but it’s connected to immigration. If you look at the socioeconomic profile of the PVV voter, one cannot say that these are the less fortunate ones economically. Of course, you also see them in the lower-income classes, but also in the middle- and higher-income classes, where people do not really experience economic anxiety. Economically, the Netherlands is doing quite well.

So, it is mainly a cultural thing—a fear of immigration, fear especially of asylum seekers, which has become a very big issue in the Netherlands. Incidents involving asylum seekers have attracted a lot of attention in the media, and as a result, these issues became the most salient in the election campaign. Immigration was the issue people talked about, and Wilders benefited from this. So, if you see immigration more as a cultural issue, then I would say it was more on a cultural level than on an economic one.

Wilders’s ‘People’ Are Defined Against the Leftist Elite

How does the PVV’s construction of ‘de volk’ differ from earlier Dutch nationalist discourses? Is the imagined community increasingly defined through civilizational frames—especially Judeo-Christian identity—rather than ethnic or civic nationalism?

Dr. Koen Vossen: That’s an interesting one. The main difference is that, first of all, until the 1960s or 1970s, the Netherlands was a pillarized country. You had these different minorities—the Catholics, the Protestants, the Socialists, the Liberals. These pillars have disappeared, and in a way, we have now become one big population, without this idea anymore of four different groups.

There is actually a majority culture—secular, quite progressive in many ways, but also liberal in an economic sense. So, there has been a kind of majority culture. What has now become the new cleavage for many people is between the elite, which is often associated with the left, and the people—and that is what Wilders capitalizes on.

This imagined community of Wilders is very much an anti-elite community, especially anti–cultural elites. In the Netherlands, we call this the Amsterdam Canal District—that’s the center of Amsterdam—and that’s where, in this imagined community, live the elites who disparage the common people. A little bit like the Rive Gauche in Paris, or similar places elsewhere—these left-wing people who, in his narrative, look down on ordinary citizens. That has mainly become his imagined community: a “good people” who have been betrayed by a leftist elite. So, it’s an anti-elitist conception of the people. That is the main difference between now and the past.

In Dutch Elections, Two or Three Percent Can Decide Everything

Billboard featuring the main candidates in the Dutch elections on June 9, 2010, in Amstelveen, the Netherlands. Photo: Dreamstime.

Was the PVV’s 2023 electoral breakthrough driven primarily by long-term ideological convergence between party and electorate, or did short-term crises—housing, asylum pressure, inflation—create an episodic opportunity?

Dr. Koen Vossen: What happens in the Netherlands is that election campaigns matter a lot. We are a country with many parties—very fragmented, without any single dominant one. So, you usually have three or four major contenders—it’s almost like a cycling tour. In the end, a few escape the peloton, race toward the finish, and then there’s a sprint where two or three percent makes the difference. Sometimes, a small push at the end—some luck, a sudden event, or a strong debate performance—can deliver those few extra percentage points.

So, the PVV this time, because of what I already mentioned—the end of the cordon sanitaire, the VVD signaling that the PVV was now an option, immigration becoming a hot topic, and Wilders presenting himself as a bit more moderate—these factors, combined with a few strong debate performances, especially one widely watched debate where he clearly came out as the winner, gave him that final two, three, or four percent that made him the victor in these elections.

Had this not happened, it might just as well have been the centrist liberals who caught that last bit of momentum—with a good campaign and a little luck—and made the final sprint to become the largest party.

It’s a One-Man Party—And That’s Its Greatest Weakness

The PVV’s unique one-member structure creates tactical agility yet hinders institutionalization. How does this model shape accountability, policy competence, and the party’s ability to govern?

Dr. Koen Vossen: The main problem for the PVV is absolutely the fact that they lack personnel. They lack good people. And that should not have been a problem, except that Wilders is a very distrustful man. He does not trust anyone outside his very small circle of people. So, if he needs ministers, junior ministers, or people he can send to do a job, he has to rely on this small circle of people who have been around him for 10 to 15 years. These are people without any experience in governing. Their only experience is helping Wilders in his opposition work. So, they are not people who can govern a whole ministry.

This is the main problem—and he does not want to recruit people from outside because he does not trust them. He’s also afraid that other people could become more popular than he is, and all these kinds of things. So, that’s really the main problem of the PVV, and that’s why he basically failed in government—because he lacks both people and quality within his party.

Wilders’s Longevity Is Partly a Matter of Luck

Compared with LPF and FvD, the PVV has exhibited remarkable longevity. Does this durability reflect ideological clarity, organizational discipline—even if minimal—or simply an absence of credible far-right competition?

Dr. Koen Vossen: I think there’s even a fourth option—and that’s luck. For instance, the FvD seemed to be a really good competitor, but then the coronavirus hit suddenly. At the moment when the FvD made its breakthrough and was really campaigning across the whole country, the pandemic broke out. Everybody had to go into lockdown. For Wilders, this was nothing new, because he’s basically been in lockdown for the last 20 years, living under strong security measures. But for Thierry Baudet, for Forum voor Democratie, this proved to be a real disaster, because he got tangled up in all kinds of conspiracy theories about the coronavirus and vaccination. So, Wilders was just lucky that Baudet made a mess of things in his own party and made himself impossible.

Having said that, the story of the FvD isn’t over. They won again with a new leader—a young female leader, 28 years old—and became more attractive again for some voters. But for Wilders, what also matters is that he’s a political professional. He knows how to play the game. He’s very experienced in debates and in how to attract media attention—not too much and not too little. He knows exactly how to do these things. So, it’s also a skill that plays a role here.

Wilders Has Returned to His Old Anti-Islam Routine

The collapse of the most recent governing arrangement highlighted constitutional constraints on Wilders’ maximalist proposals. Has the forced “freezing” of radical positions substantively moderated the movement, or merely deferred ideological confrontation?

Dr. Koen Vossen: I think they lost. Since they are out of government, he’s kind of back to his old anti-Islam routine. He moderated his viewpoints for a while—he always said, “I put them in the refrigerator for a while, in the freezer.” But now the refrigerator is open again, and all the old viewpoints are back. One could even say that, in a way, he contaminated the conservative liberals and the Farmers Party, his partners in the coalition. He influenced them with his ideology because they also became more anti-Islam and very much pro-Israel. There’s, maybe, not a clear answer here, either.

Wilders Is the Ultimate Insider Who Plays the Outsider

Geert Wilders (PVV) in House of Representatives during a debating at the Tweede Kamer on April 5, 2023 in Den Haag, Netherlands. Photo: Jeroen Meuwsen.

You note that Wilders seems most effective in opposition. If the PVV returns to government, might governance responsibilities erode its anti-system identity, or does the “Schrödinger’s populism” phenomenon enable Wilders to frame himself as both insider and outsider simultaneously?

Dr. Koen Vossen: I didn’t know the Schrödinger’s paradox, so I’ll have to look it up. Wilders has been an insider from the very beginning. He’s been in politics since 1990—first working for the conservative-liberal parliamentary group as an assistant, then becoming a member of the parliamentary group in 1998. He started his own party in 2004. So, he’s always been there. He’s an insider as much as one can be an insider in politics in The Hague, in the Netherlands. He has the longest tenure of all parliamentarians in the Netherlands, absolutely. But he has always managed to give himself an outsider profile by provoking and making these harsh statements. So, in that sense, he can really play with these elements. I don’t know the exact article about this Schrödinger’s populism, so I’m hesitant to go deeper into it, but at first glance, I would say yes—he plays this insider–outsider role very well.

Wilders’s Anti-Islam Discourse Grew from His Pro-Israel Stance

PVV foreign policy is heavily filtered through a clash-of-civilizations narrative. How does this framing shape its positions on Israel-Palestine, NATO, Russia, and Ukraine, and does it distort pragmatic assessment of national interests?

Dr. Koen Vossen: He’s very much pro-Israel, pro-Netanyahu. He doesn’t allow any criticism of Israel, and all the victims there—that’s just part of a war. So, in that sense, he’s very much pro-Netanyahu. When he was 19 years old and had just left school, he went to work on a kibbutz. He’s not Jewish himself, but he went there to spend a gap year. Before starting his studies, he wanted to do something different, so he did this. And since then—this was 1980 or 1981—he has had a special connection with Israel. One could even say that this special connection with Israel shaped his worldview early on. Already in the 1990s, he really saw the enemies of Israel as Islamic enemies. So, his whole anti-Islamic discourse partly comes from this pro-Israel stance, and he still sees Israel as the main buffer against Islamization. This whole story is still very much there.

With regard to Ukraine and Russia, the story is more complicated. Around 2017–2018, for a while, he made some remarks that were more pro-Russia. He even went to Moscow, but never as much as the Front National, Salvini, or Orbán. When Russia invaded Ukraine, he really distanced himself from Russia. But at the same time, he was not a very enthusiastic supporter of Zelensky or of Ukraine either. So, he tries to keep a little bit of distance there.

It’s the same with NATO. On the one hand, he’s very pro-Trump. On the other hand, Trump demands the 5% expenditure on defense, and that’s also something that for Wilders is problematic—that’s quite a lot, in his opinion. So, in foreign policy, does it sometimes hurt national interests? Yes, sometimes it does. In trade with Arab countries, with Islamic countries, Wilders can really be a problem for the Netherlands with all his remarks. For him, it’s not a reason to say, “Okay, I’ll tone down my voice a little bit.” No, he just says, “We should not deliver any weapons to Islamic countries,”for example, and things like that. So, he’s quite principled on these matters.

Israel Is Seen as the Vanguard Against Islamization

You have argued that the PVV positions Israel as the civilizational vanguard of the West. Is this symbolic architecture primarily a theological-civilizational justification for its anti-Islam platform, or does it carry genuine programmatic implications for Dutch foreign policy?

Dr. Koen Vossen: It did. The last government, which is still there now as a caretaker government, was also quite pro-Israel—one of the most pro-Israel governments in the European Union for a long time. So, there was not much criticism of Netanyahu for a long time. They were very much against sanctions. For example, when there was the question of some sick children going to the Netherlands for treatment, the PVV was very much against it, and this government was also against it. So, in that sense, it really had programmatic implications, absolutely.

But does it have theological roots? That’s difficult to say. It’s this whole idea of “Israel first” as well—there are different reasons for supporting Israel. There is this historical feeling of guilt toward the Jewish population in the Netherlands. The Netherlands was one of the countries with the highest percentage of Jews deported during the war, so there’s this lingering feeling of guilt. Then there’s the idea of Israel as the vanguard against Islamization, as part of this clash-of-civilizations narrative. There’s also a specific Christian motive in supporting Israel—you see this among Orthodox Christians. There’s a whole Christian theory behind that, similar to what you see in the United States. So, these are the three main reasons to support Israel in the Netherlands, and you see this reflected in the programmatic policy toward Israel.

Wilders Learned That Nexit Was an Unwinnable Battle

Concept illustration with road sign reading “Nexit.” Photo: Dreamstime.

And lastly, Professor Vossen, the PVV has oscillated between advocating Nexit and merely proposing a referendum. Does this reflect strategic ambiguity intended to broaden its electorate, internal ideological uncertainty, or recognition that Euroscepticism is increasingly cultural rather than institutional?

Dr. Koen Vossen: Here you can really see a tactical motive. Nexit is not really popular in the Netherlands. It has never, in any poll, come even close to a majority. At most, 20–25% of the Dutch electorate favors some kind of Nexit. Because it’s such a trading country, it would be economically very stupid to have a Nexit. We are completely dependent on Germany economically. And people saw what happened in the UK with Brexit. So, Wilders thought, “Maybe with Nexit, I will never win this battle.” Like Le Pen did in France, he said, “I’ll drop the whole Nexit idea.” He mentioned something about a referendum, but in his last program for the European Parliament elections, he was quite vague and moderate about the European Union. He’s not a fan—he will never be a fan of the European Union—but Nexit is also a bridge too far for him.

Labor Day protest outside Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue, Midtown Manhattan, September 1, 2025, where demonstrators demanded better wages and working conditions. Photo: Dreamstime.

Can Mamdani’s Municipal Socialism Counter Democratic Backsliding?

In a period of deepening global democratic recession Zohran Mamdani’s ascent as mayor of New York City poses an important question: Can municipal socialism provide meaningful resistance to authoritarian and oligarchic drift? Mamdani’s redistributive agenda—rent freezes, universal childcare, fare-free transit, public groceries, and a $30 minimum wage—seeks to decommodify basic needs and challenge monopoly power. His platform echoes broader critiques of financialized capitalism and “techno-feudalism,” offering a localized experiment in restoring democratic control over markets. Yet structural constraints—capital mobility, state-level authority, and limited municipal capacity—risk reducing his project to a palliative rather than transformative intervention. Still, Mamdani’s rise signals renewed potential for democratic agency within advanced capitalism and highlights the symbolic power of left urban governance.

By Ibrahim Ozturk

In an era marked by the ninth consecutive year of global democratic decline—with more autocracies than democracies worldwide—the question of whether municipal socialism can serve as a meaningful counterweight to authoritarian drift has acquired renewed urgency. In my earlier analysisTrump and the New Capitalism: Old Wine in a New Bottle, I argued that the rise of populist-authoritarian tendencies represents not an aberration but an outcome of structural transformations within capitalism. The fusion of excessive neoliberal deregulation, financialization, and techno-feudal monopolies has produced a regime in which power is concentrated in networks of rent-seeking elites while democratic accountability erodes. Within this global configuration, figures such as Donald Trump exemplify a politics of reaction, harnessing social discontent to reinforce rather than transcend capitalist contradictions.

The newly elected mayor of the New York municipality in the US, Zohran Mamdani, represents another countermovement that is evolving. Having an Indian lineage, born in Kampala, Uganda, in 1991 and educated at the Bronx High School of Science and Bowdoin College in the US, Mamdani is a community organizer and politician representing a new generation of democratic socialists in New York City politics. His family background reflects a distinguished intellectual lineage: his father, Mahmood Mamdani, is a renowned Ugandan academic and political theorist at Columbia University, while his mother, Mira Nair, is an internationally acclaimed Indian filmmaker. This cosmopolitan and intellectually engaged upbringing informs his perspective on justice, diversity, and structural inequality. Before his mayoral campaign, he served as a state assembly member for Queens, gaining recognition for his advocacy on housing, transport, and labor rights.

The emergence of Mamdani, a self-described democratic socialist and now mayor-elect of New York City, raises a critical question: Can left municipalism, operating within the framework of advanced capitalism, achieve more than temporary relief? Can it open pathways toward structural transformation, or does it risk serving merely as a palliative to capitalism’s crises? This commentary examines Mamdani’s project as a potential alternative within the confines of globalized urban capitalism and explores whether it constitutes a genuine rupture or a managed reform.

Mamdani’s Program and Its Socialist Premise

Mamdani’s platform centers on affordability—housing, transit, groceries, childcare—labor empowerment, anti-monopoly measures, and public-sector revival. His proposals include rent freezes, universal childcare, fare-free buses, city-owned grocery stores, and a minimum wage of $30 by 2030. The program is explicitly redistributive—funded through higher taxation on the wealthy, municipal bonds, and redirected public investment—and endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America. Reports from The Nation and The Guardian emphasize his focus on social affordability and economic justice.

Taken together, these policies articulate a coherent vision of municipal socialism that seeks to reconcile equity with feasibility. They represent not merely an electoral program but a normative statement about how value creation and distribution should be reorganized in an era of inequality and urban precarity.

Alignment with Structural Critiques of Capitalism

While Mamdani’s proposals emerge from the immediate material pressures of urban life—housing unaffordability, wage stagnation, and public disinvestment—they also speak to deeper theoretical concerns. His platform implicitly challenges the dominant accumulation regime that has shaped advanced capitalism since the 1980s.

  • Constraining monopoly and platform power: His regulation of delivery apps and advocacy for municipal alternatives echo calls to counter techno-feudal control.
  • Fiscal re-politicization: Expanding municipal investment and debt capacity revives the Keynesian principle of democratic capital allocation, countering the austerity logic.
  • Labor empowerment: Raising wages and curbing algorithmic exploitation of gig workers directly addresses the erosion of collective bargaining in the digital economy

In essence, Mamdani’s local socialism represents a municipal-scale experiment in reversing the disembedding process. It seeks to restore social control over markets without dismantling the capitalist framework entirely.

Structural Constraints and the Risk of Palliative Reform

Despite its radical rhetoric, Mamdani’s agenda faces formidable structural limits:

  • Jurisdictional dependency: Many proposals—such as rent control, wage laws, and tax reform—require state-level approval. Dependence on higher-tier institutions (Albany, Congress) restricts municipal sovereignty.
  • Financial constraints: Global capital mobility enables landlords and investors to circumvent local regulations through capital flight or pre-emptive rent inflation.
  • Administrative capacity: Rebuilding the state apparatus after decades of privatization demands resources, expertise, and political endurance.
    Global market discipline: As I noted elsewhere, cities embedded in global capital circuits cannot easily alter systemic rules of accumulation.

Thus, while progressive, Mamdani’s project risks acting as a palliative: It might ease inequality, precarity, and housing shortages without actually transforming the fundamental regime of accumulation. In this way, it resembles the New Deal paradox—reforms that saved capitalism from itself by institutionalizing social compromise.

Theoretical Implications: From Populism to Municipal Socialism

In contrast to populist movements such as Trumpism that weaponize social anger for authoritarian consolidation, Mamdani represents a left-populist or socialist response oriented toward redistribution and participation.

Drawing on thinkers such as Shoshana ZuboffYanis Varoufakis, and McKenzie Wark, genuine transformation would require dismantling the global rentier system based on data extraction, monopolistic control, and financial dominance. Mamdani’s measures operate largely at the level of urban welfare and infrastructure, not at the structural nexus of digital and financial capital.

This suggests that while municipal socialism can create breathing space for democracy, it cannot, alone, displace capitalist command over value creation. Nevertheless, its symbolic power is significant: It demonstrates that political agency still exists within capitalist democracies and that redistribution, social housing, and decommodification are viable public policies.

A Short Reminder from the Obama Experience

While Mamdani’s rise has generated enthusiasm among progressive circles, historical experience counsels caution regarding the transformative potential of reform within existing institutions. The election of Barack Obama in 2008 offers a revealing precedent. His campaign, built around the populist slogan “Yes We Can,” unleashed one of the most powerful waves of civic mobilization in modern US history.

A signature pledge—the creation of a single-payer healthcare system—was quickly abandoned amid intra-party resistance. Even with a unified government, centrist Democrats refused to support the plan. The resulting Affordable Care Act represented a policy milestone but fell short of structural transformation.

Simultaneously, the conservative backlash was immediate and fierce. The Tea Party movement– funded by corporate networks and amplified through right-wing media—redefined the Republican Party and laid the groundwork for Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) insurgency. 

The political consequences were swift. In the 2010 midterms, Democrats lost both houses of Congress. Even vacancies in the Federal Reserve Board and the Supreme Court remained unfilled, enabling the next administration to reshape the judiciary decisively.

A Constraint Hope for the Future

Zohran Mamdani at the Dominican Heritage Parade on 6th Ave in Manhattan, New York City, August 10, 2025. Photo: Aleksandr Dyskin.

Mamdani’s rise signals a generational shift toward pragmatic socialism—a reassertion of collective goods amid a cost-of-living crisis. His program offers hope within limits: Hope that governance can be reoriented toward equality and sustainability; limits because the city remains bound to global circuits of capital and data.

If such movements scale upward—through cooperative federalism, trans-urban alliances, and progressive taxation—the Mamdani experiment could prefigure a new model of democratic socialism adapted to the 21st century. Otherwise, as warned in Trump and the New Capitalism, the system will continue oscillating between neoliberal authoritarianism and fragmented reform.

Monika de Silva

Dr. de Silva: Anti-Gender Narratives Are Highly Interlinked and Interconnected Across Borders

“Anti-gender discourses are very interlinked and interconnected; we see these floating narratives repeated across countries like Latvia, Poland, and Russia,” says Dr. Monika de Silva. She explains that populist actors strategically exploit linguistic ambiguity around concepts such as gender, transforming technical legal terms into polarizing political symbols. “Language is never neutral… this linguistic openness is used to argue that because gender replaces the word sex, we can no longer talk about men and women,” she notes. The Istanbul Convention—intended to prevent violence against women—has thus been reframed as an LGBTQ+ threat or “radical feminist project.” Yet Dr. de Silva stresses the importance of civic resistance: Latvia’s mass protests “undoubtedly shaped” the president’s decision to return the withdrawal bill to parliament.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

In recent weeks, Latvia has become a focal point in Europe’s ongoing struggle over gender equality, human rights, and democratic resilience. On October 31, 2025, the Saeima (Latvian Parliament) voted 56–32 to withdraw from the Council of Europe’s Istanbul Convention—only a year after ratifying the treaty designed to prevent and combat violence against women. The move relied heavily on claims that the Convention promotes “radical feminism” and “gender ideology,” echoing narratives with well-documented transnational origins. President Edgars Rinkēvičs soon returned the bill to parliament for reconsideration, warning that overturning ratification within a single legislative term would send “a contradictory message… to Latvian society and Latvia’s allies internationally.” He urged postponement until after upcoming elections, noting that Latvia risked becoming the first EU member state to renounce a human-rights treaty.

The backlash triggered the country’s largest civic protests since the 1990s. On November 6, 2025, more than 10,000 demonstrators gathered in Riga under the slogan “Let’s Protect Mother Latvia,” signaling a groundswell of civic resistance. At stake is not only the institutional integrity of gender-equality policy but also the credibility of Latvia’s constitutional and international commitments, especially given that the EU itself acceded to the Convention in 2023, making certain provisions binding regardless of national withdrawal.

It is against this turbulent backdrop that the European Center for the Study of Populism (ECPS) spoke with Dr. Monika de Silva, a political scientist at the University of Gothenburg. Her research, situated at the intersection of international relations and EU studies, examines how contested normative frameworks travel across borders. Her 2025 doctoral dissertation, “‘Gender Wars’ in Europe: Diplomatic Practice under Polarized Conditions,” traces how bilateral diplomacy and Council of the EU negotiations have been reshaped by conflicts over gender equality and LGBTQ+ rights. She is also affiliated with the Gender and Diplomacy project (GenDip) and the Centre for European Research (CERGU).

In the interview, Dr. de Silva argues that anti-gender discourse is best understood as a transnationally circulating narrative rather than merely a domestic reaction: “Anti-gender discourses are very interlinked and interconnected… we see manifestations of that as floating narratives that are very similar, whether we look at Latvia, Poland or Russia, etc.”

She identifies both supply and demand factors driving the spread of “gender ideology” rhetoric across Europe, noting that populist radical right actors strategically translate technical legal language into ideologically charged frames, exploiting linguistic ambiguity: “Language is never neutral… this linguistic openness is definitely used to advance such narratives.”

Dr. de Silva further highlights how withdrawal debates are reframing the Istanbul Convention away from its core purpose—preventing violence against women—toward narratives that depict it as an LGBTQ+ threat or “radical feminist project.” These interpretations, she warns, are not new; similar tropes have circulated across Europe for nearly a decade.

Yet her analysis also highlights agents of democratic resilience. Civil society mobilization, she observes, has already influenced decision-making: “The president… decided to return the  law to parliament, and I am sure that seeing the largest protests in Latvia helped shape this decision.”

Finally, she issues a clear warning about governance consequences. Withdrawal would remove Latvia from GREVIO’s monitoring regime, generating critical transparency and implementation gaps: “A state not part of the Convention would not report to GREVIO… whatever it does is therefore less transparent, especially internationally.”

This interview thus offers rich insight into how legal, discursive, and geopolitical forces converge to shape contemporary anti-gender mobilization—and how democratic institutions and civil society may yet respond.

Here is the edited transcript of our interview with Dr. Monika de Silva, slightly revised for clarity and flow.

Erica Frantz3

Assoc. Prof. Frantz: The Rise of Personalist Leaders Is Fueling Unpredictable Global Conflict

In an interview with the ECPS, Associate Professor Erica Frantz warns that the growing rise of personalist leaders worldwide is undermining democratic institutions and increasing the risk of international conflict. Personalist systems—where power is concentrated around a single dominant figure—erode checks and balances, distort party structures, and heighten foreign-policy miscalculation. Reflecting on the United States, she notes that Donald Trump has transformed the GOP into a “personal political vehicle,” enabling rapid consolidation of executive power. As domestic constraints weaken, Dr. Frantz cautions, “we are increasingly setting the stage for more volatile and unpredictable conflict behavior in the international arena.” She identifies leader-created parties and media-driven mobilization as critical warning signs of emerging personalist capture.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

In a wide-ranging conversation with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Associate Professor Erica Frantz of Michigan State University offers a penetrating analysis of the global resurgence of personalist politics and its destabilizing implications for democracy and international security. A leading scholar of authoritarianism, democratic backsliding, and strongman rule, Dr. Frantz situates recent developments in the United States within broader cross-national trends, underscoring how personalist leaders erode institutions, centralize power, and elevate the risk of domestic and international conflict.

Reflecting on recent US electoral outcomes in New Jersey, Virginia, California, and New York, Dr. Frantz stresses that it is “too soon to tell whether this trend will last,” though she notes the results offer “at least a small glimmer of hope for the Democrats” after months of erosion under Trump. Yet she cautions that such gains do not signify a reversal of democratic decline. Personalist rule—defined by her as governance backed by leader-centered parties—has advanced markedly under Trump. His second administration, she argues, is marked by consolidated control over the executive and a legislative majority, patterns “consistent with what research would anticipate” in cases of democratic erosion.

Personalism, Dr. Frantz warns, not only weakens democratic institutions but also escalates international danger. She emphasizes that leaders who face minimal domestic constraints are more prone to foreign policy miscalculation, explaining that “the absence of domestic constraints makes it very difficult for the two sides to figure out what the real red lines are. That potential for miscalculation elevates the chance of conflict.” Drawing on international relations scholarship, she identifies audience-cost dynamics as critical to crisis stability—factors severely undermined under highly personalized regimes. As she concludes, “as we see personalism on the rise globally, we are increasingly setting the stage for more volatile and unpredictable conflict behavior in the international arena.”

Dr. Frantz underscores that Trump’s transformation of the Republican Party represents a paradigmatic shift toward personalist structure. Though he did not found the GOP, by 2024 the party had become “fully under his control,” with elites aligning themselves behind his false election narratives. Trumpism has thus reshaped partisan dynamics in ways that may outlast his tenure.

Looking to the future, Dr. Frantz identifies leader-created parties as a key early warning sign of personalist capture—now increasingly visible in democracies and autocracies alike. She argues that the changing media environment has dramatically lowered the cost of personalist mobilization, enabling wealthy outsiders to build movements rapidly and bypass organizational constraints.

Taken together, Associate Professor Frantz’s insights illuminate how personalism—far from a regional aberration—is now a global pattern, with the United States neither insulated nor exceptional.

Here is the edited transcript of our interview with Associate Professor Erica Frantz, slightly revised for clarity and flow.

Dr. Monika de Silva is a political scientist at the University of Gothenburg.

Dr. de Silva: Anti-Gender Narratives Are Highly Interlinked and Interconnected Across Borders

“Anti-gender discourses are very interlinked and interconnected; we see these floating narratives repeated across countries like Latvia, Poland, and Russia,” says Dr. Monika de Silva. She explains that populist actors strategically exploit linguistic ambiguity around concepts such as gender, transforming technical legal terms into polarizing political symbols. “Language is never neutral… this linguistic openness is used to argue that because gender replaces the word sex, we can no longer talk about men and women,” she notes. The Istanbul Convention—intended to prevent violence against women—has thus been reframed as an LGBTQ+ threat or “radical feminist project.” Yet Dr. de Silva stresses the importance of civic resistance: Latvia’s mass protests “undoubtedly shaped” the president’s decision to return the withdrawal bill to parliament.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

In recent weeks, Latvia has become a focal point in Europe’s ongoing struggle over gender equality, human rights, and democratic resilience. On October 31, 2025, the Saeima (Latvian Parliament) voted 56–32 to withdraw from the Council of Europe’s Istanbul Convention—only a year after ratifying the treaty designed to prevent and combat violence against women. The move relied heavily on claims that the Convention promotes “radical feminism” and “gender ideology,” echoing narratives with well-documented transnational origins. President Edgars Rinkēvičs soon returned the bill to parliament for reconsideration, warning that overturning ratification within a single legislative term would send “a contradictory message… to Latvian society and Latvia’s allies internationally.” He urged postponement until after upcoming elections, noting that Latvia risked becoming the first EU member state to renounce a human-rights treaty.

The backlash triggered the country’s largest civic protests since the 1990s. On November 6, 2025, more than 10,000 demonstrators gathered in Riga under the slogan “Let’s Protect Mother Latvia,” signaling a groundswell of civic resistance. At stake is not only the institutional integrity of gender-equality policy but also the credibility of Latvia’s constitutional and international commitments, especially given that the EU itself acceded to the Convention in 2023, making certain provisions binding regardless of national withdrawal.

It is against this turbulent backdrop that the European Center for the Study of Populism (ECPS) spoke with Dr. Monika de Silva, a political scientist at the University of Gothenburg. Her research, situated at the intersection of international relations and EU studies, examines how contested normative frameworks travel across borders. Her 2025 doctoral dissertation, “‘Gender Wars’ in Europe: Diplomatic Practice under Polarized Conditions,” traces how bilateral diplomacy and Council of the EU negotiations have been reshaped by conflicts over gender equality and LGBTQ+ rights. She is also affiliated with the Gender and Diplomacy project (GenDip) and the Centre for European Research (CERGU).

In the interview, Dr. de Silva argues that anti-gender discourse is best understood as a transnationally circulating narrative rather than merely a domestic reaction: “Anti-gender discourses are very interlinked and interconnected… we see manifestations of that as floating narratives that are very similar, whether we look at Latvia, Poland or Russia, etc.”

She identifies both supply and demand factors driving the spread of “gender ideology” rhetoric across Europe, noting that populist radical right actors strategically translate technical legal language into ideologically charged frames, exploiting linguistic ambiguity: “Language is never neutral… this linguistic openness is definitely used to advance such narratives.”

Dr. de Silva further highlights how withdrawal debates are reframing the Istanbul Convention away from its core purpose—preventing violence against women—toward narratives that depict it as an LGBTQ+ threat or “radical feminist project.” These interpretations, she warns, are not new; similar tropes have circulated across Europe for nearly a decade.

Yet her analysis also highlights agents of democratic resilience. Civil society mobilization, she observes, has already influenced decision-making: “The president… decided to return the  law to parliament, and I am sure that seeing the largest protests in Latvia helped shape this decision.”

Finally, she issues a clear warning about governance consequences. Withdrawal would remove Latvia from GREVIO’s monitoring regime, generating critical transparency and implementation gaps: “A state not part of the Convention would not report to GREVIO… whatever it does is therefore less transparent, especially internationally.”

This interview thus offers rich insight into how legal, discursive, and geopolitical forces converge to shape contemporary anti-gender mobilization—and how democratic institutions and civil society may yet respond.

Here is the edited transcript of our interview with Dr. Monika de Silva, slightly revised for clarity and flow.

Latvia’s Withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention Signals Deep Democratic Trouble

Demonstrators in Riga on April 25, 2023, demand accountability after a woman’s murder, calling for political responsibility over Latvia’s years-long failure to ratify the Istanbul Convention. Photo: Gints Ivuskans.

Dr. Monica de Silva, thank you very much for joining our interview series. Let me start right away with the first question: Latvia became the first EU state to vote to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention—just a year after ratifying it. The move, driven by the right-wing Latvia First party and backed by a governing coalition partner, relied on claims that the treaty promotes “gender ideology,” echoing Kremlin-style narratives. It triggered Latvia’s largest civic protests since the 1990s, despite the country having the highest femicide rate in Europe; President Edgars Rinkēvičs has since sent the bill back to parliament for review. How do you interpret this backlash—primarily as a cyclical conservative reaction, a structural anti-gender countermovement, or a strategic tool of PRR mobilization?

Dr. Monika de Silva: Of course, the fact that populist radical right parties like Latvia First mobilized around the Istanbul Convention and now seek to withdraw from it is not surprising; it is a continued strategy of populist radical right parties. What is different—and concerning—in this case is that a conservative party, the Union of Farmers and Greens, has joined these radical right actors in pursuing withdrawal from the Convention.

The Union has always had reservations about the Convention, which is typical not only of radical or far-right parties but also of more mainstream conservative parties. However, what distinguishes this situation is that the Union is part of the government, and, as such, agreed to a coalition deal in which the Latvian government committed to ratifying the Istanbul Convention. Now they are backing away from a commitment they made to the Latvian public and to their coalition partners, which is deeply troubling for the state of our democracy.

It has been a very long process from Latvia’s signing of the Istanbul Convention to its ratification just last year. During this period, we saw extensive democratic debate in parliament, as well as a case before the Constitutional Court, which confirmed that the Convention complies with the Latvian Constitution. Upon ratification, Latvia also adopted an interpretive declaration affirming that it would not replace the word “sex” with “gender” in national legislation, and so on. Many voices participated in this process, and concerns—for example, about the legal implications of the Convention—were duly assessed.

It is therefore very worrying that, at this stage, we still face efforts to retract this commitment. This raises questions not only about Latvia’s commitment to its own citizens—particularly women—but also to other states that are parties to the Convention.

The Supply and Demand of Anti-Gender Politics in Europe

In your view, what explains the political salience of “gender ideology” narratives in opposition to the Istanbul Convention across such varied contexts as Latvia, Bulgaria, Turkey, and Hungary?

Dr. Monika de Silva: I like to think about the gender ideology narrative as having a supply side and a demand side. On the supply side, we have in all of these countries very strong populist radical right parties, but also other political movements that are very effective at mobilizing against the Convention and transnationalizing this issue. So this is the supply side of the narrative.

But what is even more interesting is the demand side. This strategy would not work without the resonance of this argument among a certain part of the population. What is similar in all of these countries—you mentioned Latvia, Bulgaria, Turkey, Hungary—is that they all participate in European integration but are not at the core of this project. They are not Western European countries; they are Central and Eastern European countries, or even countries on the boundary between Europe and other continents.

There are also many interlinkages between European identity and gender equality norms. We see that adopting certain norms or laws gives states a certain status within European integration. The case of Turkey is illustrative. The Istanbul Convention is named the Istanbul Convention for a reason. It was adopted in Turkey, and Turkey gained a lot of status points by hosting the conference; it was able to brand itself as European, liberal, etc.

But let’s remember that this was over 10-15 years ago, and now we live in a different moment. Today, Turkey’s accession to the European Union is much less likely. We also live in a moment where the European Union does not have as much power as it used to. So, this linkage between Europeanness and gender equality does not work as well as it once did, and it creates backlash. 

Gender equality norms are very dear to people; they are part of people’s social identity, whether on the left or on the right. So, it is not something that can be easily changed. People also do not want to feel that something is being imposed on them, so it is very easy to mobilize against this narrative in these countries—arguing that this is Western Europe, or the EU, or the Council of Europe, etc., or the elites forcing them to change their core norms.

Women and LGBTQ+ activists in İzmir, Turkey, rally for the International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women, highlighting femicide and the withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention. Photo: Idil Toffolo.

Populism, Geopolitics, and the Cross-Border Spread of Gender Backlash

To what extent is anti-gender discourse a domestic phenomenon, and to what extent is it borrowing transnational scripts, including Kremlin-linked rhetoric that frames the Convention as destroying “traditional family values”?

Dr. Monika de Silva: Of course, anti-gender discourses are very interlinked and interconnected, and we see manifestations of that as floating narratives that are very similar, whether we look at Latvia, Poland or Russia.

In the Latvian case, for example, I have not seen any new tropes in the anti-gender discourse, even though we have had this conversation since 2015–2016. So now, almost ten years on, there is nothing new. The Istanbul Convention is presented as a threat to the family, sneaking in certain gender-equality or feminist or LGBT norms that states did not initially think were in the Convention, or that it will make states allow for non-binarity in their legal systems, or make more lenient laws regarding transgender rights.

We see this over and over again, across time and space. What is the reason for that? To some extent, it is coordinated. We have coalitions of states that cooperate with each other in venues like the United Nations—traditional-values coalitions and so on—and they exchange and build their discourses together. We also have non-state, transnational organizations like the World Congress of Families that do this.

Regarding the link between these narratives and Russia or the Kremlin: we definitely see why there would be an incentive for Russia to stir up the conversation around the Istanbul Convention in Latvia and other Baltic states. This creates a lot of mistrust between countries like Latvia and other Western European countries and the EU, especially in a situation where we have this aggression on the eastern border of Europe. This is a problem that can steer the fate of this country one way or another.

We have elections in Latvia next year, and the Istanbul Convention will surely be a significant part of the campaigns. Hopefully, it will not steer the political scene in this country toward a pro-Russian direction. I hope we will see well-informed, democratic debate on the Istanbul Convention. But of course, since this is such a polarizing topic, there are certain risks involved.

Populist Actors Exploit Linguistic Ambiguity in EU Gender Debates

How do PRR actors transform technical legal language into ideologically charged rhetoric, especially around contested terms like “gender,” which your work has shown can be strategically mistranslated or emptied of meaning in EU negotiation spaces?

Dr. Monika de Silva: The discussion around the term “gender” shows us that language is never neutral. It is always politically charged, whether it is adopted as technical or legal. In the case I studied, several EU member states at some point decided that they did not want to use the word “gender” in EU-adopted documents. This, of course, stirred a lot of contestations around what gender even means for the EU, and so on. The fact is that what gender means, or what gender equality means for the EU, has never been a settled issue.

As you know, all EU languages have equal legal value. In different languages, gender equality is translated basically as equality between men and women. This had not been an issue for a long time because it did not spark as much discussion as it does now, with many states being very attached to the idea that gender should include more than men and women, and some countries being attached to the idea that it should not.

So, there is this discursive openness in what gender means for the EU. It existed before the so-called gender-language crisis. Populist parties, populist governments, are very skilled at using this discursive openness. Because if we do not know what the exact boundaries of a certain word are—and this is not atypical in political discourse—it is very easy to argue that this word means something essentially ridiculous. For example, because gender replaces the word sex, we can no longer talk about men and women. This is, of course, not what the word “gender” means, but this linguistic openness is definitely used to advance such narratives.

Why Some States Avoid Ratification: The Limits of EU Influence

European Union flags against European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

In your research, you explore “language bargaining” and diplomatic-legal talk. How have these dynamics influenced EU-level negotiations on the Istanbul Convention, and how did they enable states such as Hungary or Slovakia to avoid ratification?

Dr. Monika de Silva: Definitions and decisions in the EU are always outcomes of negotiations. There are diplomacy and negotiation involved in reaching a jointly acceptable outcome. That, of course, is a good, healthy thing if we have parties that are not always expecting to arrive at their maximalist outcome. This is not possible in an organization with 27 member states.

The ability to make these compromises and negotiate was something that enabled the European Union to accede to the Istanbul Convention, even though several member states decided that they themselves would not accede to the Convention. But they accepted the fact that, within a legitimate process and based on the rule of law—with also a case in the Court of Justice of the EU confirming that the EU can accede to the Istanbul Convention—yes, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

So, there is very little that the EU can do to make other member states ratify the Convention. This is their sovereign decision; they are not obliged to ratify the Convention under EU law. Even given the narratives that we talked about—the imposition from the EU and so on—this may actually have a reverse effect, a backlash against this sort of narrative of imposition.

So, I think the way to go is to maintain a culture of compromise, which assures these governments and their populations that this is the way we work in the EU, including in cases like the Istanbul Convention.

How a Women’s Protection Treaty Became a Culture-War Symbol

Could you reflect on how the Istanbul Convention became symbolically detached from its core purpose—preventing violence against women—and reframed instead as an LGBTQ+ threat or “radical feminist” project?

Dr. Monika de Silva: Of course, this is very unfortunate—what we see is that a convention intended to protect women from violence, gender-based violence, and protect domestic-violence victims, not only women, suddenly becomes a token in political discussions.

Even if some political movements would like the Istanbul Convention to stand for LGBT rights and feminist projects to a larger extent, it does not do so, as populist parties would like us to believe. That is why it is very important to counter misinformation around the Istanbul Convention and always go back to what it actually stands for and what it actually says. This is how movements across Europe will succeed in ensuring that the Convention is a successful tool—by returning to its true purpose, which is largely consensual. If we look at public opinion across Europe, most people agree that violence against women is not something they want to see in their societies.

We may have different ideas about the scope of the problem and how to tackle it, but returning to this core purpose is something that can mobilize support for the Convention. Bringing the Convention back to its purpose and localizing that purpose—not as something imposed or defined by other countries on Latvia, for example, but as something important within Latvian society itself—is very important.

We see civil society learning to do that—to focus on these two things. When we look at the protests in Latvia, I have seen a lot of Latvian flags; the protest itself has this motto of protecting Mother Latvia. So, it gives you the idea that this is about the citizens and population of Latvia. It is not about the EU; it is not about how we look in the eyes of EU bureaucrats. This is a local issue.

People Power Matters: Protest as a Deterrent to Anti-Gender Politics

Women protest in Warsaw, Poland, against the abortion ban and new laws restricting the right to contest fines or penalties. Photo: Eryk Losik.

What role does civil society mobilization play against gender backlash? Latvia has seen some of its largest protests since independence—can such mobilization create durable political resistance?

Dr. Monika de Silva: Of course it matters, and we have seen this in the case of Latvia. The president of Latvia decided to return the decision about the Istanbul Convention to parliament, and I am sure that seeing the mobilization of people and witnessing the largest protests in Latvia helped shape this decision.

We have other cases as well. Poland is a very good example of how civil society mobilization really works. Think about the Women’s Strike in Poland, and the fact that even though Poland had a populist government for over eight years, very much threatening gender equality, Poland has not withdrawn from the Istanbul Convention. This was, to a large extent, the success of civil society mobilization, acting as a deterrent to incumbents—showing that if you take a decision that is against our core values and beliefs, we will not continue supporting you.

At the end of the day, people want to stay in power, and civil society mobilization shows them that they can only do so if they take into account what civil society wants. This mobilization has to continue until the elections in Latvia next year, and hopefully in a way that mobilizes a large part of society rather than polarizing it.

Can EU-Level Binding Offset National Withdrawal?

How has EU legal accession to the Istanbul Convention (2023) shaped the political field? Does EU-level binding partially compensate for national withdrawals or refusals to ratify?

Dr. Monika de Silva: This is a complex legal issue—really an issue for legal nerds—but it is important for the public to understand it, too. Some parts of the Istanbul Convention are ratified by the EU, and the majority of the Convention can be ratified by EU member states, depending on who has competence in a given issue.

So, the EU—regardless of whether member states ratified the Convention or not—will have a certain part of the Convention apply, for example in the case of Latvia, just because the EU ratified it. But this is a very limited scope: it includes transnational cooperation between national court systems on violence against women and domestic violence.

A second area is asylum and refugee policy, because the EU has competence over this policy. And third, the EU has to implement the Convention within its own institutions.

So, this is a limited scope—this is one thing. Another issue is that although in theory it may sound all well and good, a division of competences, in practice this is a bit of a mess. Even though the EU is legally responsible for asylum policy, it is actually member states that implement it. It is states that run asylum-seeking centers, states that receive asylum requests, and so on. So, in practice, it may be difficult to differentiate who is responsible for what, and we have yet to see how this will work in practice.

The Real-World Costs of Leaving the Istanbul Convention

Women and LGBTQ+ activists in İzmir, Turkey, rally on November 25 for the International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women, highlighting femicide and the withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention. Photo: Idil Toffolo.

And lastly, Dr. de Silva, from a governance-effects perspective, what are the tangible consequences of withdrawal or non-ratification for women’s lives, particularly in terms of monitoring gaps and legal reform trajectories?

Dr. Monika de Silva: In the case of Latvia specifically, the Istanbul Convention is still in force and will be so until the parliament votes otherwise. But this will likely not happen until the next parliamentary elections in Latvia next year. So, in the case of Latvia, we are so far safe.

But what would happen if Latvia withdrew from the Convention? Let’s think about this. Many provisions of the Convention are already implemented in this case, and then we would have to focus on keeping these provisions in place. This is also a strategy in countries where it is very clear that they will not ratify the Convention in any foreseeable future. Think about Hungary. This is where civil society should focus on national law on domestic violence and violence against women being as strong as possible and perhaps reflecting the provisions of the Convention to the largest extent possible.

Latvia has already reported to GREVIO, the expert body of the Convention that monitors its implementation, and from this report we know that there are still gaps. The government itself says, for example, that it does not yet have assistance centers for rape victims. Now the government is legally obliged to establish them in the foreseeable future. If Latvia were not a member of the Convention, it would not have a legal obligation to do so.

There are situations like that. But the biggest and most immediate difference we would see is that a state not part of the Convention would not report to GREVIO. Whatever it does is therefore less transparent, especially internationally. There is less scrutiny, because once a state reports to GREVIO, it is evaluated by this body of experts—experts on violence against women and domestic violence who know what the Convention requires and how it should be implemented. States outside the Convention would also not face scrutiny from other member states or from international civil society.

So, this would be the biggest difference.

Satirical carnival parade with caricatured sculptures and enthusiastic spectators in Torres Vedras, Portugal on March 4, 2025. Photo: Dreamstime.

Assoc. Prof. Frantz: The Rise of Personalist Leaders Is Fueling Unpredictable Global Conflict

In an interview with the ECPS, Associate Professor Erica Frantz warns that the growing rise of personalist leaders worldwide is undermining democratic institutions and increasing the risk of international conflict. Personalist systems—where power is concentrated around a single dominant figure—erode checks and balances, distort party structures, and heighten foreign-policy miscalculation. Reflecting on the United States, she notes that Donald Trump has transformed the GOP into a “personal political vehicle,” enabling rapid consolidation of executive power. As domestic constraints weaken, Dr. Frantz cautions, “we are increasingly setting the stage for more volatile and unpredictable conflict behavior in the international arena.” She identifies leader-created parties and media-driven mobilization as critical warning signs of emerging personalist capture.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

In a wide-ranging conversation with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Associate Professor Erica Frantz of Michigan State University offers a penetrating analysis of the global resurgence of personalist politics and its destabilizing implications for democracy and international security. A leading scholar of authoritarianism, democratic backsliding, and strongman rule, Dr. Frantz situates recent developments in the United States within broader cross-national trends, underscoring how personalist leaders erode institutions, centralize power, and elevate the risk of domestic and international conflict.

Reflecting on recent US electoral outcomes in New Jersey, Virginia, California, and New York, Dr. Frantz stresses that it is “too soon to tell whether this trend will last,” though she notes the results offer “at least a small glimmer of hope for the Democrats” after months of erosion under Trump. Yet she cautions that such gains do not signify a reversal of democratic decline. Personalist rule—defined by her as governance backed by leader-centered parties—has advanced markedly under Trump. His second administration, she argues, is marked by consolidated control over the executive and a legislative majority, patterns “consistent with what research would anticipate” in cases of democratic erosion.

Personalism, Dr. Frantz warns, not only weakens democratic institutions but also escalates international danger. She emphasizes that leaders who face minimal domestic constraints are more prone to foreign policy miscalculation, explaining that “the absence of domestic constraints makes it very difficult for the two sides to figure out what the real red lines are. That potential for miscalculation elevates the chance of conflict.” Drawing on international relations scholarship, she identifies audience-cost dynamics as critical to crisis stability—factors severely undermined under highly personalized regimes. As she concludes, “as we see personalism on the rise globally, we are increasingly setting the stage for more volatile and unpredictable conflict behavior in the international arena.”

Dr. Frantz underscores that Trump’s transformation of the Republican Party represents a paradigmatic shift toward personalist structure. Though he did not found the GOP, by 2024 the party had become “fully under his control,” with elites aligning themselves behind his false election narratives. Trumpism has thus reshaped partisan dynamics in ways that may outlast his tenure.

Looking to the future, Dr. Frantz identifies leader-created parties as a key early warning sign of personalist capture—now increasingly visible in democracies and autocracies alike. She argues that the changing media environment has dramatically lowered the cost of personalist mobilization, enabling wealthy outsiders to build movements rapidly and bypass organizational constraints.

Taken together, Associate Professor Frantz’s insights illuminate how personalism—far from a regional aberration—is now a global pattern, with the United States neither insulated nor exceptional.

Erica Frantz is an Associate Professor in Political Science at Michigan State University.

Here is the edited transcript of our interview with Associate Professor Erica Frantz, slightly revised for clarity and flow.

Democratic Gains Offer Hope, But 2026 Remains the Real Test

Professor Erica Frantz, thank you very much for joining our interview series. Let me start right away with the first question: In the wake of recent Democratic victories—such as in New Jersey, Virginia, and California, as well as Zohran Mamdani’s win in New York—do you interpret these outcomes as early signs of public pushback against personalist-populist politics in the US, or are they better understood as cyclical fluctuations within a still-fragmented party system?

Assoc. Prof. Erica Frantz: That is a great question, and one that I don’t think we have a solid answer for. On the one hand, it certainly should give room for optimism that the Democrats did fairly well last week, in the November 4th elections. But at the same time, it is very possible that this was just a blip and an outlier. The real big test will be in the 2026 midterm elections. From my perspective, this was an important outcome for the Democrats in that there had been very little good news for the party since the 2024 election. So, for the first time, there was some indication that the tide of public opinion may be shifting a little bit against Trump. So, it is too soon to tell whether this trend will last, but it certainly offered at least a small glimmer of hope for the Democrats.

Small Victories Amid Deep Democratic Vulnerability

Do these electoral results indicate that institutional resilience and civic counter-mobilization remain robust in the US, or do you see them as temporary and insufficient to counter deeper trajectories of democratic erosion?

Assoc. Prof. Erica Frantz: Again, it is a little bit too soon to know what the ultimate meaning of this election result will be. From my perspective, a really big test is going to be the 2026 midterm elections.

We know a couple of things about the factors that escalate the chance of democratic erosion, and my colleagues and I have written a lot about personalist parties: when leaders come to power backed by personalist parties and the party has a legislative majority, the chance of democratic erosion increases. That is precisely what we’ve been witnessing with the second Trump administration—he now governs amid this personalist party, and the party has legislative majorities. All of that set the stage for him to consolidate power in the executive fairly rapidly in the US. So, the patterns that we’ve seen in 2025 are consistent with what research would anticipate.

To be clear, there are opportunities for citizens to push back against these efforts and signal their displeasure. This election was certainly one such opportunity. Again, the big one will be the 2026 midterm elections. It is not always the case that these leaders are able to consolidate control and destroy democracy from within; in some instances, they’re voted out of power. A good recent example would be Bolsonaro in Brazil. He was elected, did things that were harmful for Brazilian democracy, but ultimately lost his re-election bid. Slovenia would be another example. So, there is an opportunity for citizens to vote these leaders out.

But at the same time, it is not guaranteed that the 2026 midterm elections will be free and fair. Historically, US elections have been free and fair, despite allegations of fraud. The widespread consensus among experts is that we have very solid democratic elections in the US. However, there have been subtle indications that the Trump administration might try to fiddle with things in ways that threaten the integrity of the process in 2026. That is something to keep an eye on as well. Whether through gerrymandering or the disenfranchisement of key sectors of the electorate, there are certain things they could do that might not sound the alarm bell among citizens but would still threaten the integrity of the process.

Is Personalism the New Global Normal?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan watching the August 30 Victory Day Parade in Ankara, Turkey on August 30, 2014. Photo by Mustafa Kirazli.

Given your comparative work on strongmen, how significant are these recent US elections at a global level—might they signal renewed democratic resistance, or are they isolated exceptions in a broader worldwide pattern of backsliding?

Assoc. Prof. Erica Frantz: We know that there is a broader pattern of backsliding happening, as you alluded to, and scholars debate to some degree how serious it is. But the reality is that regardless of the measure used to capture backsliding, we know that it’s occurring in places that have historically been robust to this sort of threat. Usually, wealthier democracies—democracies that have been in place for a really long time—tend to be protected from this kind of erosion.

What’s alarming about today’s backsliding wave is the ways in which countries like the United States, Poland, Hungary, and Turkey have been threatened by these sorts of incumbent takeovers. So, we know that there is a broader pattern underway, and from my own research perspective, we think that personalism is playing a very big role in fueling this dynamic.

That’s the broader global landscape. At the same time, as I mentioned earlier, just because we see a leader elected by a personalist party with a legislative majority does not mean there are no windows of opportunity for the opposition to vote these leaders out before they win re-election. I mentioned the cases of Brazil and Slovenia as examples where leaders that fit the model of what you don’t want to see, in terms of risks of incumbent takeover, did not win re-election.

So, the fact that we have this positive result for the Democratic Party—not only in terms of Mamdani, who is further to the left, winning office, but also the governors in New Jersey and Virginia, who were centrist—signals that perhaps there is some pushback against Trump’s agenda. However, it’s unclear whether that pushback is because of Trump doing things that are harmful to democracy and people not liking it, or—more likely, in my opinion—because they don’t like the direction of his economic policies. So, it would be unlikely that this result reflects frustration with what Trump has done to democracy, and far more likely that it reflects disagreement with his economic policies and the direction he has taken the economy.

From Institutional GOP to Personalist Machine

Your recent New York Times article argues that Donald Trump has transformed the GOP into a personal political vehicle. What empirical markers—organizational, ideological, or behavioral—most clearly signal the evolution of the Republican Party from a programmatic institution into a personalist structure?

Assoc. Prof. Erica Frantz: That’s a great question as well. We do a lot of research on personalized parties, and we’ve gathered a lot of data on how to capture personalism in a political party. And usually, the best indicator that a party is going to be personalist is that the leader created the party themselves—so Bukele with Nueva Ideas in El Salvador, or in Hungary with Orbán and Fidesz. Trump is unusual in that he did not create the Republican Party. This party has been around for a long time. But one indicator that his tenure as president was going to be different vis-à-vis the Republican Party was that he did not rise up within the ranks of the party to get the 2016 nomination. Instead, what happened was he was somewhat of an outsider. He, at one point, had been a Democrat, so he was not the classic candidate that the Republican Party had tended to field in their presidential campaigns.

At the time, the Republican Party happened to be divided. There were a variety of other people who were potential frontrunners for the 2016 candidacy, and Trump surprised many by virtue of winning. A lot of people at the time thought it was somewhat of a joke that he would be running for president. It was the right place at the right time for him to take over the Republican Party.

During his first term, he did not have the same control over the Republican Party that he did since 2020. And a clear indicator that the party was becoming personalized was after the insurrection on January 6, 2021. We see this really blatant, horrific episode of violence—essentially political violence—where a mob is trying to keep a democratically elected leader from taking power. That should have been a moment where Trump was completely sidelined from the Republican Party.

In the early days, a lot of Republican elites were somewhat unsure of how to respond. Should they get in line behind Trump’s false narrative that the election was stolen, or should they speak out against what happened and how much of a departure it was from our democratic norms? Slowly over time, however, Trump was able to get all of these elites to get in line with his false narrative. And so, by the time he ran for office in 2024, the Republican Party was fully under his control.

He’d gotten all of the key players within the party to support his narrative that the election was stolen, and by this point, it was pretty clear that Trump became synonymous with the party. When he would have different Republican Party events, there would be a statue of Trump or an image of Trump. Rather than promoting the party’s ideas, it was more a situation where we were seeing Trump as a person dominate. Clearly, elites started to sense that they were unlikely to maintain their political careers if they did not get in line behind Trump. So, by the time he ran for president in 2024, the party was very much one that we would consider personalist, where most elites were fearful of speaking out against Trump, and instead, he basically governs the policy agenda.

Structural Conditions Behind Trump’s Party Takeover

Elephant symbol of the Republican Party with the American flag in the background.
Photo: Chris Dorney.

Which structural conditions—party decay, institutional fragility, or shifts in public demand—have been most important in enabling Trump to centralize authority and weaken intra-party constraints?

Assoc. Prof. Erica Frantz: I don’t have a solid answer to that, because it would really be my best guess. My best guess in terms of what enabled Trump to personalize the party. I do think that the party was somewhat divided in 2016, and that was a real momentous occasion in terms of Trump being able to leverage this window of opportunity, as I mentioned. That said, the party was not fully behind Trump during his first term. Again, I can’t point to a specific cause of why he was able to fully take over the party in 2021. But we do know that slowly over time, key individuals in the party started to see themselves as not electorally viable unless they got in line behind Trump’s agenda.

In terms of the broader global landscape of why we’re able to see these sorts of things, there is some evidence that the changing media environment is enabling leaders to personalize their parties. Rather than having to build a party from the ground up, leaders can now build parties on social media. They don’t need the same organizational grassroots effort to construct a group that backs them. I mentioned earlier El Salvador with Nayib Bukele. He really is the new mold for how leaders can build movements that are personalized very rapidly and win office. He created his own political party and was very savvy in his use of social media to directly connect with voters, bypassing the need for a traditional party organization to launch his candidacy. These sorts of direct connections with citizens enable leaders to gain a following without having to rely on an established traditional party. There is some evidence that new media is facilitating the rise of personalism and personalist parties, enabling these leaders to bypass traditional institutions to gain political influence.

How Trump Hollowed Out Democratic Guardrails

Strongmen typically engage in institutional hollowing from within. Under Trump, which forms of institutional capture—of the courts, the DOJ, the Federal Reserve, or security agencies—pose the greatest long-term threat to liberal-democratic resilience in the US?

Assoc. Prof. Erica Frantz: Trump has been somewhat of an outlier in terms of the speed with which he has consolidated control. Typically, when we see these leaders come to power backed by these hollow organizations, personalist parties; it takes longer for them to get rid of executive constraints. Oftentimes, it’s strategic to do this slowly, because it’s more difficult for opponents to express alarm and mobilize against these fragmented takeovers. What has been surprising in the case of the US is the speed with which Trump has gone after multiple institutions of power and been able to do it without much pushback.

In terms of which institution is the most dangerous, in many cases we see the courts as particularly important in protecting democracy from an executive takeover. The fact that we have a Supreme Court that has seemed at least sympathetic, or willing to consider a new vision of the executive as very powerful, is particularly alarming, in that it’s possible the courts will open the door for Trump to do things like pursue a third term in office, because we have a conservative court that is not only conservative in terms of its agenda, but particularly pro-Trump. The current Supreme Court hearing over the case on tariffs and whether his tariffs are legal is going to be a very big case in terms of determining whether the courts will open the door for Trump to bypass traditional norms of behavior regarding executive power.

This is not to say that what Trump has done to gain control over other institutions is not also a problem. We ideally would like to see a bureaucracy that has people who are competent in major positions of power. Instead, what we’ve seen is that the bureaucracy has been both hollowed out—now very thin—but also staffed with his loyalists. This is going to have downstream consequences for all sorts of policy outcomes in the US. Even when we’re thinking about things like childhood vaccinations, we might see a public-health crisis on the horizon because of the ways in which Trump has appointed people in the health sector who do not have appropriate credentials for these positions.

The other domain that is also one to keep in mind is what’s going on with the military. Early on in Trump’s term, basically on a Friday night, when most people were not reading the news or maybe were asleep, he purged the top military brass of many officials. This is not the sort of thing that we are used to seeing. In a healthy democracy, the military is kept separate; it’s kept out of some of these civilian political debates. Trump seems very open-minded to trying to politicize the military. It’s been very unusual and alarming to see the ways he has deployed the National Guard to Democratic strongholds. This is not the sort of thing you’d like to see in a healthy democracy, because in theory the military is supposed to stay out of domestic political debates. The ways in which he’s used ICE to go after immigrants is also indicative of a shift where he is trying to use the security forces for political purposes in ways that are unprecedented.

Personalism and the Creation of Internal Enemies

Personalist rulers commonly manufacture “internal enemies” to justify extraordinary coercive measures. How does Trump’s rhetoric about the “deep state,” immigrants, and political opponents align with this broader strategy of threat construction?

Assoc. Prof. Erica Frantz: The ways in which Trump is fabricating a domestic enemy are very similar to what we see in dictatorships. The two cases that come to mind for me are Russia under Putin and Iran under its theocracy. In Iran, the regime very much benefits from promoting an image of the US as the enemy. It tries to get a rally-around-the-flag sort of boost in domestic support by saying that the regime is under attack from America, and that the United States is the cause of all of the country’s problems. In Russia, we’re seeing something similar with Putin’s rhetoric, saying that the United States is the cause of all of these challenges, and so forth.

Trump is not necessarily targeting a specific foreign enemy, but he likely would, at any given moment, blame a foreign country for some sort of problem that might be happening here. But he is stating that immigrants are a problem, and that immigrants are responsible for crime. He has made a number of statements completely absent any evidence about crime. In particular, he is saying false things about crime rates in Democratic cities. For people who live in these cities, this is somewhat surprising, because in many of them, they’ve actually seen their crime rates go down. So, the fact that he is deploying the National Guard to fight crime in Democratic strongholds is troubling.

It’s also his effort to rally his base. It was clear to him early on that his supporters were concerned about crime—that this was an issue he could get people to rally behind. If he paints a portrait of the United States as full of crime, as D.C. full of crime, then he can again create and craft a narrative that helps support him—an us-versus-them mentality, something that we’ve seen in many other political contexts, where leaders leverage these divides for their own political benefit.

Militarization as a Red Flag

District of Columbia National Guard soldiers patrol the National Mall after Trump activated the Guard and assumed control of the Metro Police to fight what he calls a crime epidemic, near Union Station, Washington, DC. Photo: Harper Drew.

Trump’s deployment of the National Guard and increasingly militarized immigration enforcement raises concerns about domestic coercion. Should we understand this as the early normalization of militarized rule within a democratic setting?

Assoc. Prof. Erica Frantz: In most cases of incumbent-led democratic backsliding, leaders usually first go after institutional constraints; they first go after the judiciary, or the bureaucracy, the media. Then they ultimately target elections. That’s the typical process that we see with incumbent-led backsliding. Trump’s ability to, or decision to, try to go after the security forces—and by that, I mean two things: promote loyalists, get rid of dissenting voices in the security forces, and then also politicize them by deploying them against his opponents—is not something that is typically part of the classic playbook. Usually, it’s something that we see after the democracy has transitioned to dictatorship.

The US is still a democracy by all accounts right now, because the 2024 presidential election was free and fair. That’s the most basic indicator of a democracy: the free and fairness of elections. We’re still a democracy. However, usually we don’t see these leaders militarize and politicize the security forces until after they’ve autocratized. It’s a very common tactic that they try to rely on multiple different security forces; we hear about coup-proofing and balancing the different security forces against one another. The fact that Trump is doing all of these things is both inconsistent with democratic norms in the United States and also a red flag in that healthy democracies require militaries that are not used for political purposes, particularly against domestic opponents.

Personalism and Economic Vulnerability

Photo: Shutterstock AI.

Your work suggests that personalist leaders politicize economic institutions and often embrace transactional economics. How might Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve, discretionary trade tactics, and patronage-based allocation threaten long-term economic stability?

Assoc. Prof. Erica Frantz: I keep mentioning personalist parties, but there’s a lot of research related to party personalism and its harmful consequences. We, my colleagues and I, just published a paper that shows that when leaders are backed by personal parties, they are more likely to attack central bank independence. This is not just something that is observed in the United States. There is a global pattern that these leaders, in their effort to ensure that no institutions can push back against them, go after the central bank as well. So, the fact that Trump has tried to interfere in the ways in which the Federal Reserve sets interest rate policies is consistent with global trends.

There is a huge body of research that shows that you want central bank independence, that this is something that political leaders should try to preserve because it’s in the country’s long-term best economic interests. So, when we have this sort of behavior, it signals that we’re likely to see disruptions in terms of inflationary policy. We are likely to have more unpredictable inflationary policy in the US. It is likely to lead to more inflation for ordinary people, and that’s already a concern among Americans. If you go to the grocery stores, prices are higher in everything. So, when I talk to my students, they can list a lot of different products that they no longer can afford because of inflation.

So, Trump’s eagerness to lower interest rates and fiddle with central bank independence is going to have long-term economic consequences. On top of this, these sorts of leaders are also likely to reward their loyalists with corruption. They’re likely to give them access to corruption and corrupt deal-making. That’s something very common, that these inner-circle elites are profiting from illicit deals. They send their money overseas to offshore bank accounts, try to hide things, and this is the way that these personalist leaders, like Trump, are able to maintain some inner-circle loyalty, by giving these sorts of kick-backs.

Corruption is not good for ordinary people. So that is another way in which these sorts of leaders, in their prioritization of their cronies and of staying in power, disrupt economic stability. So, the economic outlook for the United States does not look good. That’s not just because of the tariffs, which run counter to most economists’ advice, but because of these other layers of what’s happening with inflationary policy, interest rates, and corruption.

After Trump: Continuity or Collapse?

Former US President Donald Trump with a serious look as he delivers a speech at a campaign rally held at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Wilkes-Barre, PA – August 2, 2018. Photo: Evan El-Amin.

Personalist systems are especially fragile at succession. If the US continues along a personalist trajectory, what are the most plausible succession scenarios—heightened autocratization under loyalists, elite fragmentation, or institutional pushback?

Assoc. Prof. Erica Frantz: We don’t have a lot of research that gets into succession in personalist democracies. It’s somewhat unknown territory, what might happen if Trump were to decide not to go for a third term. That’s a big if, because he is certainly trying to put out feelers about how people would react to him going for a third term. It’s possible that he will try to stay in office beyond his term limits.

That said, in autocratic settings, we know that personalism makes it more difficult for succession to run smoothly, as you mentioned, but still, most of the time—when we have research on when leaders die of natural causes in office, for example—even in personalist places, most of the time there is a smooth succession process, at least to observers, and the regime survives it.

With personalist leaders, they can often survive even when ordinary people are doing horribly economically, because so long as they have bought off the security services and their inner circle of elites with corruption, they can maintain power.

The case I often think of when people ask what might happen next—such as whether everything would fall apart if Trump were to leave power—is Venezuela under Maduro. You know, Hugo Chávez had governed that place, autocratized it, and transformed what was once a very healthy democracy into an authoritarian system. He dies; it was around 2011. Maduro takes over, isn’t very popular, people don’t think this is going to last very long, and even though he lacks the same popularity that Chávez had, he has been able to stay in power amid an economy that’s performing disastrously. So, it would be foolish to assume that should Trump leave power—whether he dies of natural causes or whether he retires voluntarily—it’d be foolish to anticipate that that means the end of the destruction that he’s done to democracy in the United States.

Will Trumpism Outlive Trump?

Your scholarship shows that personalist parties can destabilize political competition even after their founders depart. Could Trump’s reconfiguration of the GOP generate enduring structural disruption in the US party system beyond his tenure?

Assoc. Prof. Erica Frantz: There are two points to mention here. On the one hand, because Trump did not create the Republican Party—because he took it over and co-opted it—I’m somewhat optimistic that the party could rebound and return to its former self, where it was a traditional conservative party with a conservative agenda, and where elites rose up the ranks of the party to get those positions. I think that it’s possible that we could see a reversion to the Republican Party of the past.

However, it’s also important to note that we have a lot of evidence that when these leaders lose power—let’s say they lose power in democratic elections—democracy does not necessarily rebound very quickly. Two recent examples of this would be Poland with the Law and Justice Party (PiS) losing elections. There was a lot of optimism that the democratic backsliding there had come to an end, but it has still been difficult for Polish democracy to fully rebound. There are challenges that persist in the judiciary, for example, and its ability to be independent.

The same thing could be said of Brazil with Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro loses re-election, Lula takes over, but there are really long-lasting divisions in Brazilian society that have persisted. A lot of this is because of the ways in which these leaders use polarization as a political tactic. So, it’s not that they are just voted out of office and suddenly, the 50% or so supporters that they genuinely have go away. 

From that perspective, on the one hand, I am more optimistic than I would be with other places that the Republican Party could rebound and return to a more programmatic party. But at the same time, there is lasting damage that has been done to the fabric of democracy here.

Unbound Executives, Unstable Worlds

Photo: Shutterstock.

Your NYT article notes that Trump and Xi of China operate with few domestic constraints, increasing unpredictability. Why does diminished institutional constraint heighten the risks of international miscalculation and conflict, particularly among major powers?

Assoc. Prof. Erica Frantz: There is a well-established body of research in international relations that underscores the importance of domestic constraints in preventing conflict. The idea is that if leaders face domestic constraints—meaning they would face some kind of consequence for not following through on their threats—their adversaries recognize this and can interpret those threats as credible. So, if I say there is a red line—if you don’t do X, Y, or Z, we’re going to invade—and I know I face constraints at home, my adversary knows that I mean what I say.

If, however, I face no domestic consequences for making empty promises or issuing vague or meaningless threats, then my adversary no longer knows what I really mean. The absence of domestic constraints therefore makes it very difficult for both sides to discern where the real red lines are. That uncertainty increases the likelihood of miscalculation and, in turn, the risk of conflict.

As I mentioned, there is a large literature on this—called audience-cost theory—and while it is somewhat complex, it helps explain why, when personalist leaders come to power, we tend to see more conflict. Research on authoritarian systems shows that personalist leaders are the most likely to start wars; they are the most likely to escalate conflicts with democracies in particular; and they are more prone to foreign policy miscalculation.

Taken together, this suggests that as we see personalism on the rise globally, we are increasingly setting the stage for more volatile and unpredictable conflict behavior in the international arena.

Why Leader-Made Parties Signal Democratic Peril

And lastly, Professor Frantz, given rising polarization, institutional distrust, and party hollowing globally, do you expect personalist leadership to become more common across both democracies and autocracies? What early warning indicators should scholars monitor to detect incipient personalist capture?

Assoc. Prof. Erica Frantz: I mentioned this earlier, but we do think the changing media environment has facilitated the rise of personalism in both autocratic and democratic contexts. This means that all signs point toward increasing top-heavy institutional emergence. Until there is some sort of concerted effort to return to party building and grassroots organization, we are likely to continue seeing more personalism globally.

A classic red flag is when a leader creates a party. Party creation is becoming increasingly common. Many of these leaders are billionaires, leveraging their personal wealth to fund these political vehicles. So, the biggest warning sign, I would say, is when the leader on the ballot has created their own party. That usually spells trouble for democracy—and for autocracy as well.