Donald Trump

ECPS Symposium 2026 / Panel 2: Institutions Under Pressure — Rule of Law, Executive Power, and Democratic Defense

Please cite as:
ECPS Staff. (2026). “ECPS Symposium 2026 / Panel 2: Institutions Under Pressure — Rule of Law, Executive Power, and Democratic Defense.” European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). April 28, 2026.https://doi.org/10.55271/rp00150

 

Second panel of ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium examined how democracies confront coordinated pressures on courts, bureaucracies, electoral systems, and constitutional safeguards. Moderated by Yavuz Baydar, the session brought together Professor Susan C. Stokes, Dr. Robert Benson, Professor Barry Sullivan, and Professor Stephen E. Hanson to analyze both democratic erosion and possibilities for recovery. The panel moved from comparative evidence on how backsliding leaders leave office, to the transnational coordination of illiberal actors, the expansion of executive power under Trump’s second administration, and the patrimonial assault on rational-legal state institutions. Together, the speakers underscored that democratic defense requires coordinated resilience, institutional renewal, civic mobilization, and a renewed commitment to rule-bound governance.

Reported by ECPS Staff

Panel 2 of the ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium, Reforming and Safeguarding Liberal Democracy: Systemic Crises, Populism, and Democratic Resilience,” convened under the title “Institutions Under Pressure: Rule of Law, Executive Power, and Democratic Defense.” Moderated by Yavuz Baydar, blogger with Mediapart and columnist with Svenska Dagbladet, the panel examined how liberal democratic institutions respond when the rule of law, bureaucratic autonomy, constitutional safeguards, and electoral accountability come under sustained pressure.

Baydar framed the discussion around the urgent question of whether democratic systems possess the institutional and civic resources necessary to resist coordinated attacks from within. His moderation emphasized that contemporary democratic backsliding rarely takes the form of a single rupture. Rather, it unfolds through cumulative pressure on courts, civil services, electoral institutions, media systems, and oversight mechanisms. This framing gave the panel a coherent analytical direction: to understand not only how democracies erode, but also how they may recover, defend themselves, and rebuild resilience.

The first speaker, Professor Susan C. Stokes, Tiffany and Margaret Blake Distinguished Service Professor and Director of the Chicago Center on Democracy at the University of Chicago, shifted attention from the causes of democratic erosion to the question of how backsliding leaders leave power. Drawing on comparative evidence, she explored elections, term limits, party dynamics, protests, and impeachment as mechanisms of accountability and democratic recovery.

The second speaker, Dr. Robert Benson, Associate Director for National Security and International Policy at the Center for American Progress (CAP), widened the discussion to the transnational level. His presentation argued that attacks on liberal democracy are increasingly coordinated across borders through far-right networks, ideological circulation, institutional repurposing, and strategic inversion, requiring an equally coordinated democratic defense.

The third speaker, Professor Barry Sullivan, Raymond and Mary Simon Chair in Constitutional Law and George Anastaplo Professor of Constitutional Law and History at Loyola University, examined executive power in the United States under Trump’s second administration. His analysis focused principally on the erosion of separation of powers, the weakening of institutional guardrails, and the expansion of presidential authority through legal, political, and judicial developments during the first year of the second Trump administration.

The final speaker, Professor Stephen E. Hanson, Lettie Pate Evans Professor of Government at William & Mary, offered a broader theoretical reflection on democracy, state power, and regime change. Moving beyond the concept of populism, he argued that patrimonialism and the assault on rational-legal state institutions provide a more precise lens for understanding contemporary authoritarian drift.

Together, the panel offered a rich interdisciplinary account of institutional vulnerability and democratic defense. It showed that safeguarding liberal democracy requires not only electoral resistance, but also coordinated institutional renewal, civic mobilization, and a renewed commitment to the rule-bound democratic state.

 

Yavuz Baydar: From Democratic Erosion to Democratic Defense

Yavuz Baydar is a blogger with Mediapart and a columnist with Svenska Dagbladet.

The steering of moderator Yavuz Baydar provided a unifying and conceptually incisive thread throughout the second panel, shaping the discussion into a coherent exploration of democratic fragility and resistance. Opening the session, he framed the core themes—rule of law, executive power, and democratic defense—not as abstract principles, but as hard-won achievements now under visible strain. His invocation of a contemporary protest slogan, contrasting “right and wrong” rather than traditional ideological “right and left” divides, set a normative tone that underscored the gravity of current democratic challenges.

Baydar’s moderation was marked by a careful balance between diagnosis and inquiry. Rather than treating democratic backsliding as a singular phenomenon, he consistently emphasized its multi-layered and cumulative character. He drew attention to how erosion unfolds through coordinated pressure across institutional domains—judiciaries, bureaucracies, and electoral systems—thereby resisting simplistic explanations. This framing allowed subsequent speakers to situate their analyses within a broader architecture of systemic vulnerability.

Between interventions, Baydar sharpened the discussion by redirecting attention to points of institutional stress and potential resilience. His transition following Susan Stokes highlighted the need to move beyond identifying patterns of decline toward examining the conditions under which democratic actors can effectively respond. By foregrounding the role of civil servants, courts, and civil society networks, he articulated a key proposition: that coordinated attacks on democratic institutions require equally coordinated forms of defense. This emphasis on alignment—between institutional safeguards and civic mobilization—introduced a forward-looking dimension to the panel.

His subsequent remarks extended the discussion into the transnational implications of democratic resilience, suggesting that domestic institutional outcomes reverberate beyond national borders, particularly within the European context. This widened the analytical lens, linking internal democratic health to broader geopolitical consequences.

In his later intervention, Baydar adopted a more probing and critical tone when addressing the political trajectory of Donald Trump. By referencing recent statements on the limits of executive authority, he distilled a central tension between personalist leadership and established legal norms. Yet he avoided reductive critique, instead posing a more demanding question: how such an approach has achieved political traction and institutional impact. His framing of this dynamic as a “success story,” regardless of normative evaluation, compelled a deeper examination of the mechanisms—polarization, narrative saturation, and strategic defiance of constraints—that enable such transformations.

 

Professor Susan C. Stokes: Democratic Resilience Under Pressure — Institutions, Accountability, and the Return to Robust Democracy

Professor Susan C. Stokes.
Susan C. Stokes is Tiffany and Margaret Blake Distinguished Service Professor and Director of the Chicago Center on Democracy at the University of Chicago.

Professor Susan Stokes opened the second panel with a deliberately reframed analytical focus that shifted the discussion from the well-established causes of democratic erosion to a more strategically consequential question: how backsliding leaders leave power. This move marked a subtle but important departure from conventional debates. While acknowledging her own extensive scholarship linking income inequality to democratic decline, Professor Stokes chose instead to concentrate on the conditions under which democratic systems recover—or fail to recover—from sustained institutional weakening. In doing so, she oriented the discussion toward the practical dynamics of democratic resilience.

Her presentation was grounded in a systematic comparative framework. Drawing on a dataset of 27 cases of democratic erosion across 22 countries since 1999, she offered a structured and empirically informed assessment of leadership exit patterns. Contrary to prevailing narratives of democratic collapse, her findings introduced a cautiously optimistic perspective. A clear majority of backsliding leaders do not remain in power indefinitely. Of the cases examined, only a small number continue to govern, while most eventually leave office. Even more significantly, in the majority of these instances, their successors have demonstrated stronger commitments to democratic norms and the rule of law. These findings suggested that democratic erosion, while serious, does not typically culminate in permanent authoritarian consolidation.

Electoral Exit and the Limits of Autocratization

This empirical baseline framed her discussion of recent political developments, most notably the electoral defeat of Viktor Orban. Hungary had long been regarded as a critical test case for the durability of democratic institutions under prolonged illiberal governance. With extensive media control, electoral engineering, and more than a decade in power, Orban’s government appeared to many observers to have entrenched itself beyond the reach of meaningful electoral accountability. Yet his loss revealed that, even under adverse conditions, electoral mechanisms can retain their corrective function. Professor Stokes emphasized that this outcome does not imply a fully restored democracy, but it does demonstrate that the boundary between democratic erosion and authoritarian consolidation remains contingent rather than predetermined.

From this point, she developed a broader typology of exit pathways, identifying elections as the most consistent and effective mechanism for removing backsliding leaders. Across multiple regions and political systems, voter-driven electoral defeat has repeatedly served as the primary form of accountability. Cases such as the defeat of Jair Bolsonaro in 2022 and the earlier electoral loss of Donald Trump illustrated how even highly polarized environments can produce outcomes that interrupt autocratizing trajectories. While such leaders may contest results or attempt to mobilize resistance, the resilience of electoral institutions and judicial systems has, in several cases, prevented these efforts from overturning democratic outcomes.

Constraining Power: Term Limits, Parties, and Protest

Professor Stokes also highlighted the role of term limits as a secondary but significant constraint. In some contexts, leaders have adhered to constitutional restrictions and stepped down accordingly, reinforcing democratic norms of rotation in power. However, she noted that attempts to weaken or abolish term limits are a recurring feature of autocratizing strategies. Leaders such as Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales pursued such reforms to extend their tenure. Yet these efforts have not always succeeded unchallenged. Public resistance, including referendums rejecting constitutional changes, indicates that citizens often retain a strong normative commitment to limits on executive power, even in contexts of broader democratic strain.

Beyond formal electoral mechanisms, Professor Stokes examined the role of intra-party dynamics. Although less common, there are instances where ruling parties themselves have facilitated leadership change. These cases typically arise when incumbents become politically costly liabilities, particularly in anticipation of future elections. Party elites, seeking to preserve broader electoral viability, may compel leaders to resign or step aside. This dynamic underscores the importance of internal political incentives and the ways in which even dominant parties can act as constraints under certain conditions.

The role of mass protest was treated with analytical nuance. Professor Stokes acknowledged that backsliding leaders almost invariably encounter resistance from civil society, often in the form of large-scale demonstrations. Examples from multiple countries illustrate how protests challenge narratives of inevitability and signal widespread dissatisfaction. However, she emphasized that such mobilization rarely leads directly to leadership removal. The notable exception of Ukraine’s Euromaidan protests, which forced the departure of Viktor Yanukovych, remains atypical. More often, protests function indirectly, shaping political conditions rather than producing immediate institutional outcomes.

A particularly striking aspect of her analysis concerned the limited effectiveness of impeachment. Despite its prominence in constitutional design, impeachment has not successfully removed a backsliding leader in the contemporary wave of democratic erosion. This absence suggests a gap between formal institutional tools and their practical application in highly polarized political environments. In contrast, electoral mechanisms—though imperfect—have proven more consistently consequential.

Reversing Backsliding: Pathways to Democratic Renewal

Throughout her presentation, Professor Stokes maintained a careful balance between optimism and caution. While the data indicate that full authoritarian consolidation is relatively rare, it remains a real possibility. Cases such as Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela and developments in Nicaragua demonstrate that democratic breakdown can occur when institutional safeguards are sufficiently weakened. Moreover, she highlighted the ambiguity surrounding countries such as Turkey, where regime classification remains contingent on future political developments. The decisive factor, in her view, lies in how incumbents respond to electoral defeat—whether they accept loss and relinquish power or refuse to do so.

The broader significance of Professor Stokes’s intervention lies in its strategic implications. By focusing on exit rather than entry, she provided a framework for understanding how democratic systems can recover from periods of erosion. This perspective shifts attention toward the interplay of institutions, political actors, and societal forces that shape outcomes over time. It suggests that while democratic decline is often gradual and cumulative, reversal is possible through multiple, interacting pathways.

In concluding, Professor Stokes underscored that democratic erosion should not be understood as a linear or irreversible process. The trajectory from weakened democracy to authoritarian rule is neither uniform nor inevitable. Instead, it is shaped by contingent choices, institutional resilience, and the capacity of political and social actors to mobilize in defense of democratic norms. By mapping the varied routes through which backsliding leaders exit power, her analysis offered both a sobering recognition of democratic vulnerability and a measured basis for cautious optimism about its potential renewal.

 

Dr. Robert Benson: To Resist a Coordinated Attack, We Need a Coordinated Defense

Dr. Robert Benson.
Dr. Robert Benson is Associate Director for National Security & International Policy, Center for American Progress (CAP).

Dr. Robert Benson delivered a sharply focused and strategically oriented intervention as the second speaker of the panel, advancing a central claim that reframed contemporary democratic backsliding as an increasingly transnational phenomenon. Moving beyond country-specific analyses, he argued that the present moment is defined not by parallel national crises, but by the emergence of a coordinated, cross-border ecosystem of illiberal actors. In this context, the defense of liberal democracy, he contended, can no longer remain confined within national boundaries.

At the outset, Dr. Benson situated his remarks within a practitioner’s perspective, drawing on recent engagements with pro-democracy networks in Europe. This grounding lent immediacy to his broader analytical argument: that policymakers have been slow to recognize the extent to which far-right movements have developed transnational linkages. Where earlier frameworks treated democratic erosion as a series of discrete national trajectories—Hungary, Poland, France, or Germany—he suggested that such compartmentalization is now analytically inadequate. What has emerged instead is a structured system of coordination, characterized by the circulation of narratives, strategies, and increasingly, institutional resources.

Transnational Circulation and the Institutionalization of the Far Right

Central to Dr. Benson’s intervention was the concept of “circulation” as distinct from mere imitation. The contemporary far right, he argued, does not simply replicate successful tactics across contexts; it actively exchanges and amplifies them through networks that span political parties, digital platforms, and ideological communities. This circulation encompasses rhetorical frames—such as anti-migration panic, anti-elite resentment, and civilizational decline—as well as operational strategies, including the use of legal mechanisms, media ecosystems, and political patronage. In this sense, democratic backsliding is sustained not only by domestic conditions but by transnational reinforcement.

A key escalation in this dynamic, according to Dr. Benson, lies in the growing involvement of state actors, particularly within the United States. He presented evidence suggesting that elements of the American state apparatus have begun to function as amplifiers of European far-right movements. This development, he argued, marks a significant shift from earlier patterns of ideological diffusion, introducing a new layer of institutional backing. The implications are substantial: what was once a network of loosely connected actors now appears increasingly supported by formal diplomatic and financial channels.

To illustrate this shift, Dr. Benson pointed to recent reporting on activities within the US State Department, highlighting the roles of figures such as Samuel Sampson and Sarah Rogers. While careful not to reduce the analysis to individual actions, he treated these cases as indicative of a broader pattern. Meetings with European far-right actors, interventions in debates on migration and regulation, and efforts to reframe human rights discourse were presented as components of a larger strategy. The significance, in his account, lies not in isolated provocations, but in the apparent institutionalization of these efforts within official channels.

This process, Dr. Benson argued, reflects a deeper phenomenon of institutional repurposing. Historically, bodies such as the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor have served as instruments of liberal internationalism, promoting civil rights, electoral integrity, and press freedom. However, he suggested that these institutions are now being reoriented toward alternative normative frameworks, including a shift from human rights language to concepts framed as “natural rights.” This redefinition, he emphasized, is not merely semantic but reflects an attempt to reshape the ideological foundations of democratic governance.

Asymmetry and Coordination in Transnational Illiberal Networks

Equally consequential is the financial dimension of this transformation. Dr. Benson highlighted what he described as a reallocation of resources away from traditional democracy-support programs toward initiatives aligned with far-right priorities. Programs that once funded digital tools for activists and journalists in authoritarian contexts have reportedly been scaled back or dismantled. In their place, resources are being directed toward campaigns challenging regulatory frameworks in democratic societies, particularly in areas such as content moderation and platform governance. This shift, he argued, represents a form of strategic inversion: mechanisms originally designed to protect democratic pluralism are now deployed to contest it.

From this analysis, Dr. Benson derived four conceptual tools for understanding the current moment. First, transnational diffusion captures the movement of ideas and practices across borders through sustained interaction. Second, institutional repurposing describes the transformation of established democratic bodies into vehicles for illiberal agendas. Third, asymmetrical coordination highlights the imbalance between highly organized far-right networks and comparatively fragmented democratic responses. Finally, strategic inversion denotes the reorientation of democratic instruments against their original purposes.

These concepts collectively supported his broader argument regarding strategic asymmetry. While illiberal actors have invested in building durable, cross-border infrastructures—encompassing funding networks, media platforms, and political alliances—democratic actors, he suggested, continue to operate in a reactive and largely uncoordinated manner. Initiatives such as international conferences and ad hoc coalitions, while valuable, remain insufficient to match the scale and coherence of the challenge.

In the latter part of his intervention, Dr. Benson turned to the implications of this asymmetry. He argued that democratic resilience must be reconceptualized as a matter of transatlantic security. The weakening of democratic institutions within individual states has cascading effects on broader alliances, including NATO cohesion and collective responses to geopolitical challenges. In this sense, democratic erosion is not only a domestic concern but a factor shaping international stability.

Transnational Challenges, Coordinated Responses

He further emphasized the need to move beyond purely normative defenses of democracy. While appeals to values remain important, they must be complemented by the development of concrete institutional capacities. This includes building sustainable funding mechanisms, strengthening independent media ecosystems, and fostering long-term networks among pro-democracy actors. Without such infrastructure, democratic responses risk remaining episodic and insufficiently grounded.

A final theme of his remarks was the importance of temporal perspective. Dr. Benson cautioned against viewing democratic backsliding as a series of discrete crises that can be resolved through singular events, such as elections or judicial decisions. Instead, he described it as a long-term process involving gradual institutional capture, normalization of exclusionary rhetoric, and reinforcement across national boundaries. Effective resistance, therefore, requires a similarly sustained and strategic approach.

In sum, Dr. Benson’s intervention offered a compelling reframing of democratic backsliding as a transnational and increasingly institutionalized phenomenon. By highlighting the interplay between ideological circulation, state involvement, and structural asymmetry, he underscored the need for a more coordinated and durable response. His analysis suggested that the future of democratic resilience will depend not only on national political dynamics but on the capacity of democratic actors to recognize and respond to the cross-border nature of the challenge.

 

Professor Barry Sullivan: The Law and Politics of Fear — Executive Power in 2026

Professor Barry Sullivan is the Raymond and Mary Simon Chair in Constitutional Law and the George Anastaplo Professor of Constitutional Law and History at Loyola University.

As the third speaker of the panel, Professor Barry Sullivan offered a penetrating and historically grounded analysis of the early trajectory and broader constitutional implications of Donald Trump’s second administration. Professor Sullivan situated his intervention within the conceptual vocabulary of executive power, institutional erosion, and the fragility of constitutional constraints, advancing a compelling argument about the unprecedented acceleration of presidential authority in contemporary American governance.

Professor Sullivan began by invoking the notion of “flooding the zone,” a strategic concept popularized during Trump’s first presidency by Steve Bannon and later revisited by journalist Luke Broadwater in early 2025. According to Professor Sullivan, the first week of Trump’s second administration provides a paradigmatic illustration of this strategy in action—yet in an intensified and more systematized form. Broadwater’s observation that the “flood is bigger, wider, and more brutally efficient” served as an entry point for Professor Sullivan to examine how the administration deployed a rapid succession of executive actions to overwhelm institutional opposition, fragment public scrutiny, and reshape the political agenda.

A key analytical insight offered by Professor Sullivan concerns the deliberate blurring of constitutional categories. He underscored the significance of Broadwater’s use of the term “enacted” to describe executive actions—a term traditionally reserved for legislative processes. In Professor Sullivan’s interpretation, this linguistic shift is not incidental but emblematic of a broader strategy to obscure the distinction between executive and legislative authority. By staging highly publicized signing ceremonies for executive orders—most notably in a large public arena rather than the conventional Oval Office setting—Trump symbolically elevated executive directives to the status of legislative acts, thereby reinforcing an image of unilateral presidential governance.

Executive Expansion and the Transformation of Governance

Expanding on this theme, Professor Sullivan provided a detailed account of the administration’s early actions, emphasizing both their scope and their institutional implications. Within the first days of the presidency, Trump issued a torrent of executive orders, dismissed politically independent inspectors general, pardoned individuals involved in the January 6 Capitol attack, and initiated investigations into perceived political adversaries. Additional measures included revoking security clearances, freezing federal hiring, restricting immigration, dismantling diversity initiatives, and rescinding large-scale federal funding commitments. For Professor Sullivan, the cumulative effect of these actions lies not merely in their individual substance but in their collective capacity to transform the operational logic of governance.

Over the course of the first year, Professor Sullivan observed, this pattern of executive activism continued to expand, incorporating both symbolic and substantive dimensions. He highlighted instances of overtly nativist and racially charged rhetoric, as well as unprecedented interventions in civil society, including attacks on universities, law firms, and media institutions. Structural changes to the federal bureaucracy—such as the reclassification of tens of thousands of civil service positions into politically controlled roles—further exemplify what Professor Sullivan described as a systematic effort to consolidate executive control over the administrative state.

In interpreting these developments, Professor Sullivan drew a provocative historical parallel to Richard Nixon’s conception of presidential authority. Nixon’s claim that the president functions as a quasi-monarchical figure—accountable only through impeachment—serves, in Professor Sullivan’s analysis, as a conceptual precursor to Trump’s governing philosophy. However, where Nixon ultimately failed to institutionalize this vision, Professor Sullivan argued that Trump appears, at least provisionally, to have succeeded in operationalizing it.

Unitary Executive Ascendant: Law, Courts, and Concentrated Authority

Turning to the question of causation, Professor Sullivan identified several interrelated factors that help explain the administration’s capacity to expand presidential power so rapidly. While acknowledging contingent elements—such as prior planning, partisan control of Congress, and the organizational weakness of the opposition—he emphasized a deeper, structural explanation grounded in three mutually reinforcing dynamics.

First, Professor Sullivan pointed to the failure of the separation of powers as a functional constraint. Contrary to the expectations of the constitutional framers, institutional checks have proven insufficient to counterbalance executive overreach. Second, he highlighted what he described as a relative indifference to the rule of law among the president and his supporters. This normative shift, in Professor Sullivan’s view, facilitates the reconfiguration of both governmental and societal institutions in line with ideological projects such as “Project 2025,” a comprehensive blueprint for administrative transformation.

The third factor, Professor Sullivan argued, lies in the evolving jurisprudence of the Supreme Court under Chief Justice John Roberts, which has significantly expanded presidential power through the consolidation of the unitary executive theory. This doctrine posits that all officials within the executive branch must remain directly accountable to the president and subject to removal at his discretion, thereby denying the legitimacy of genuinely independent agencies. While this perspective gained prominence during the Reagan administration, Professor Sullivan traced its intellectual and political origins to post-Watergate discontent among figures associated with the Nixon and Ford administrations, who viewed institutional reforms as unjust constraints on executive authority. Key proponents of this view included Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and notably Justice Antonin Scalia, whose influential dissent articulated a maximalist conception of executive power as fully vested in the presidency. Chief Justice Roberts himself, as a young White House lawyer, had advanced similar arguments advocating the dismantling of independent agencies. In Professor Sullivan’s assessment, the jurisprudence of the Roberts Court represents the institutional culmination of these long-standing ideas. He emphasized that this development manifests in two critical dimensions: the judicial endorsement of a strong unitary executive and the expansion of presidential immunity, effectively shielding the office from civil and criminal accountability.

In synthesizing these elements, Professor Sullivan presented a sobering assessment of the contemporary American constitutional order. The convergence of institutional fragility, ideological transformation, and judicial reinforcement has enabled a form of executive governance that challenges long-standing assumptions about the resilience of liberal democratic systems.  

In conclusion, Professor Sullivan’s presentation offered a rigorous and multidimensional account of the Trump administration’s second term, illuminating the mechanisms through which executive power can be rapidly expanded within a formally democratic framework. By situating current developments within both historical and theoretical contexts, Professor Sullivan provided a critical lens through which to assess the evolving balance between authority and constraint in modern constitutional democracies.

 

Professor Stephen E. Hanson: Democracy, the Rule of Law, and Regime Change — An Evolutionary Perspective

Professor Stephen E. Hanson, the Lettie Pate Evans Professor in the Department of Government at William & Mary University.

As the final speaker of the panel, Professor Stephen Hanson delivered a wide-ranging and theoretically ambitious presentation that sought to reframe prevailing explanations of democratic backsliding. While acknowledging the analytical value of populism as a concept, Professor Hanson advanced a more nuanced argument: that the contemporary crisis of democracy is better understood not primarily through the lens of populism, but through the resurgence and diffusion of patrimonial forms of state-building that challenge the rational-legal foundations of modern democratic governance.

Professor Hanson began by situating current political developments within a broader global context characterized by sustained democratic decline. Drawing on widely cited datasets such as Freedom House, Polity and V-Dem, he noted that the world has experienced approximately two decades of continuous erosion in democratic quality. This trend, he emphasized, unfolds alongside intensifying geopolitical instability, including interstate conflicts and military interventions—from Russia’s war in Ukraine to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Africa. For Professor Hanson, these developments are not merely coincidental but constitute the structural backdrop against which democratic institutions are being weakened.

Conceptual Precision in Democratic Backsliding

Building on arguments developed in his co-authored book The Assault on the State (2024), Professor Hanson turned to the conceptual foundations of democratic theory. He questioned whether “authoritarian populism,” a term widely used to describe contemporary political dynamics, adequately captures the causal mechanisms driving democratic erosion. While recognizing that elected leaders increasingly undermine democratic norms from within—echoing arguments familiar from the literature on democratic backsliding—Professor Hanson warned against over-reliance on the concept of populism due to its analytical ambiguities.

One major concern, he argued, is what Giovanni Sartori termed “conceptual stretching.” The term populism has been applied so broadly that it risks losing explanatory precision. As Professor Hanson observed, political actors as ideologically diverse as Vladimir Putin and Alexei Navalny, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, or Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva have all been labeled populists in various scholarly accounts. Such indiscriminate usage obscures critical distinctions between episodic, charismatic mobilizations and sustained projects of institutional power consolidation. For Professor Hanson, this distinction is crucial: not all populist movements produce durable authoritarian transformations.

A second limitation identified by Professor Hanson concerns the rhetorical paradox embedded in anti-populist discourse. The call to “defend democracy” by mobilizing “the people” against populists can inadvertently reproduce the very populist logic it seeks to oppose. This paradox underscores the need for a more precise analytical framework capable of distinguishing between democratic contestation and authoritarian transformation.

To develop such a framework, Professor Hanson traced the intellectual origins of contemporary regime classification systems. He highlighted that the now-dominant dichotomy between democracy and authoritarianism is a relatively recent development, gaining prominence only after World War II. Earlier political thought, he noted, focused more on distinctions between monarchy and republic, with democracy itself often viewed with ambivalence. The postwar ascendancy of liberal democracy, reinforced by modernization theory and the perceived triumph of the West following the Cold War, led to the institutionalization of democracy as the normative endpoint of political development.

Within this intellectual tradition, Professor Hanson emphasized the enduring influence of Robert Dahl’s concept of polyarchy, which sought to operationalize democracy through measurable institutional criteria such as political participation and contestation. While this approach underpins contemporary indices like Freedom House and V-Dem, Professor Hanson argued that it risks neglecting deeper philosophical questions about the meaning of democratic rule. Specifically, the focus on institutional form may overlook whether political systems genuinely reflect “rule by the people” in a substantive sense.

Patrimonial Power and the Erosion of Liberal Democracy

This critique led Professor Hanson to reintroduce the concept of the state as a central analytical category. He argued that much of the democratization literature has treated the state as a secondary concern, emphasizing instead electoral processes and civil liberties. Yet, as Professor Hanson underscored, democracy presupposes a functioning state capable of enforcing rules and maintaining order. Without such a state, the notion of popular rule becomes hollow.

Drawing on Max Weber’s typology of legitimate authority, Professor Hanson identified three distinct bases of political legitimacy: rational-legal, traditional, and charismatic. Modern liberal democracies, he noted, are grounded in rational-legal authority, where governance is structured by impersonal rules and institutional procedures. However, contemporary challenges to democracy often involve a shift toward traditional and charismatic forms of legitimacy. In such contexts, political leaders claim to embody the authentic will of a historically rooted community or present themselves as uniquely capable figures whose authority transcends institutional constraints.

It is within this theoretical framework that Professor Hanson introduced his central concept: patrimonialism. Unlike populism, which primarily describes a style of political mobilization, patrimonialism refers to a mode of state organization in which authority is personalized and governance is conducted through networks of loyalty, kinship, and patronage. In patrimonial systems, the boundary between public and private authority collapses, and the state is effectively transformed into an extension of the ruler’s household.

Beyond Populism: The Rise of Personalized State Power

According to Professor Hanson, the contemporary global trend is not merely toward populist rhetoric but toward the reconstruction of states along patrimonial lines. This process involves systematic efforts to undermine the rational-legal bureaucracy, replace meritocratic criteria with personal loyalty, and delegitimize independent institutions by labeling them as components of a “deep state.” Leaders who pursue such strategies often invoke traditional values—such as family, religion, and national identity—to justify their actions, framing them as expressions of the true will of the people.

Professor Hanson traced the diffusion of this patrimonial model to Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which he identified as a central node in the global spread of alternative governance paradigms. From this core, patrimonial practices have influenced political developments in various regions, including Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and even established democracies. Figures such as Viktor Orbán, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Donald Trump, in Professor Hanson’s analysis, exemplify different manifestations of this broader trend, despite their varying ideological profiles.

Importantly, Professor Hanson distinguished between cases where populist mobilization remains episodic and those where it culminates in structural transformation. Movements such as Syriza in Greece or Podemos in Spain, he suggested, may channel popular discontent without fundamentally altering state institutions. By contrast, regimes that successfully embed patrimonial practices within the state apparatus pose a far more significant challenge to democratic governance, as they create enduring institutional barriers to reform.

The implications of this analysis are both theoretical and practical. For Professor Hanson, defending democracy requires more than countering populist narratives; it necessitates the preservation and reconstruction of rational-legal state institutions. This includes protecting the autonomy and professionalism of bureaucracies, reaffirming the value of expertise, and resisting efforts to politicize public administration. At the same time, he acknowledged the rhetorical difficulty of defending state institutions in societies where distrust of elites and bureaucracies is widespread.

Revitalizing Democratic Governance

Professor Hanson also emphasized the importance of engaging younger generations, many of whom have become disillusioned with formal politics. Revitalizing democratic governance, he argued, depends on cultivating a renewed commitment to public service and demonstrating that state institutions can serve as instruments of collective empowerment rather than domination.

In his concluding remarks, Professor Hanson called for a broader reorientation of political science. He advocated moving beyond static dichotomies between democracy and authoritarianism toward a more dynamic, historically grounded understanding of regime change. By examining how different forms of political organization diffuse across time and space, scholars can better anticipate emerging threats and identify pathways for institutional renewal.

Ultimately, Professor Hanson suggested that the current crisis of democracy, while profound, also opens the possibility for innovation. Rather than assuming a linear trajectory toward liberal democracy or its inevitable decline, he encouraged scholars and practitioners alike to imagine alternative forms of democratic governance that reconcile institutional stability with meaningful popular participation.

 

Discussions

In In the discussion segment, Professor Susan Stokes offered a precise reflection on the preceding presentations, expressing strong appreciation while gently pushing back on elements of Professor Barry Sullivan’s account. She noted that, until recently, she would have largely agreed with such an interpretation, but suggested that developments over the past months invite a more qualified assessment of the trajectory of autocratization in the United States.

At the center of Professor Stokes’ intervention was a clarifying question: what would genuine success look like for a leader or movement seeking to autocratize a democratic system? In her view, such success would involve a leader who sustains broad and durable popular support, commands loyalty across the political class, and faces no meaningful defections within their own party. Against this benchmark, she argued, the current situation does not fully meet the criteria of consolidated success.

Professor Stokes pointed to indicators that complicate the narrative of unchecked executive dominance. She emphasized that the president’s polling numbers remain weak and that, while party cohesion largely persists, there have been sufficient defections to obstruct key initiatives. As an example, she referred to ongoing hearings concerning a nominee for Federal Reserve chair, where opposition from within the president’s own party—linked to concerns about the politicization of the Justice Department—could jeopardize the appointment. Such moments, she suggested, reveal the continued presence of institutional and intra-party constraints.

While acknowledging that some of these difficulties may stem from individual characteristics—such as poor strategic judgment, emotional impulsiveness, or a preoccupation with personal grievances—Professor Stokes emphasized that deeper structural dynamics are also at play. Leaders who seek to undermine legal and constitutional norms, she argued, often surround themselves with advisors whose primary asset is loyalty rather than professional credibility. This, in turn, limits the quality of counsel and increases the likelihood of strategic errors. Professor Stokes stressed that, although significant changes have occurred and the challenges of re-democratization will be substantial, the current trajectory does not yet represent a fully successful autocratizing project.

Incompetence, Loyalty, and the Dynamics of Executive Power

In response, Professor Barry Sullivan largely agreed with the preceding remarks while raising questions about the president’s underlying motivations. He expressed uncertainty as to whether the president is genuinely concerned with long-term political outcomes, such as the maintenance of an authoritarian-style regime following his own term of office, suggesting instead a primary focus on present personal power and status. This, he noted, raises doubts about the depth of commitment to specific policy agendas, such as immigration, compared to more ideologically driven actors within the administration.

Professor Sullivan acknowledged some recent erosion of popular support and small pockets of Republican congressional resistance. Reflecting on the first term, however, Professor Sullivan observed that the president showed little interest in expanding his electoral base, often foregoing opportunities to broaden support. In his view, the key distinction in the second term lies not in strategic expansion but in organizational learning. The intervening years appear to have been used to reassess perceived constraints of the first administration. Most notably, Professor Sullivan emphasized a deliberate shift in personnel strategy: the conscious exclusion of advisors inclined to uphold institutional guardrails, replaced by individuals less likely to restrain executive action.

The discussions evolved into a focused exchange on the resilience of authoritarian tendencies and the challenges of democratic recovery, initiated by Dr. Bulent Kenes. Drawing on contemporary developments in countries such as Poland, Hungary, the United States, and Brazil, Dr. Kenes raised a critical concern: while democratic systems appear vulnerable and often slow to respond, autocratic or authoritarian formations seem to exhibit a striking degree of resilience. He pointed to the difficulties faced by democratic actors—such as Donald Tusk in Poland and democratic forces in Hungary—in attempting to reverse entrenched institutional transformations implemented by prior governments. Framing this as a structural asymmetry, Dr. Kenes invited Professor Stephen Hanson to reflect on how such resilience might be effectively countered.

Dr. Kent Jones, Professor Emeritus of International Economics at Babson College and author of Populism and Trade: The Challenge to the Global Trading System.

Building on this theme, Professor Kent Jones introduced a complementary line of inquiry centered on the role of incompetence within populist and authoritarian governance. Referring to Max Weber’s concept of patrimonialism, he suggested that the reliance on loyal but often unqualified appointees may lead to policy failures that undermine regime performance. At the same time, he described a “race” between the negative political consequences of such incompetence—potentially alienating voters—and efforts by leaders to entrench their power by weakening electoral accountability. If electoral mechanisms remain intact, incompetence may ultimately facilitate democratic correction; if not, it risks being politically insulated.

From Ephemeral Populism to Patrimonial Durability

In response, Professor Stephen Hanson acknowledged both questions as analytically significant and interrelated. Addressing the issue of democratic vulnerability, he argued that part of the problem lies in the absence of sustained strategic coordination among democratic actors. The assumption that historical trajectories naturally favor democracy, he suggested, has contributed to a degree of complacency, obscuring what is in fact a systemic and global shift requiring deliberate and organized responses. He further emphasized that segments of the political left have been reluctant to engage positively with the concept of the state, often associating it with overreach or surveillance. This hesitation, Professor Hanson argued, weakens the capacity to articulate a robust democratic alternative capable of governing effectively.

Turning to the question of incompetence, Professor Hanson distinguished between two forms. In cases of what he termed “ephemeral populism,” incompetence can quickly erode support, as seen in movements that fail to deliver basic governance outcomes. However, in more entrenched “patrimonial” systems, incompetence is embedded within networks of loyalty, where allegiance to the leader supersedes expertise. Such systems, he noted, are more durable precisely because they rest on historically grounded principles of legitimation, making them more resistant to collapse.

Nevertheless, Professor Hanson underscored that even within patrimonial contexts, systemic policy failures can generate political backlash. Poorly managed policies—particularly those affecting everyday economic life—can serve as focal points for mobilizing broader electoral opposition. If effectively articulated, these failures may help shift voter preferences, suggesting that incompetence, while not automatically destabilizing, remains a potential avenue through which democratic forces can regain ground.

 

Conclusion

Panel 2 has underscored that liberal democracy’s current crisis is not merely electoral, but institutional, legal, administrative, and transnational. Across the presentations and discussion, a central insight emerged: democratic backsliding advances through cumulative pressure on the rule-bound state, while democratic recovery depends on the capacity to rebuild institutions that can withstand personalist power, ideological capture, and coordinated illiberal mobilization.

Professor Susan Stokes’s comparative analysis introduced an important note of guarded optimism by showing that many backsliding leaders do eventually leave office, often through elections and election-related pressures. Yet her remarks also made clear that exit from power does not automatically restore democracy; undoing institutional damage remains a long and difficult process. Dr. Robert Benson’s intervention widened this problem by showing that illiberal actors increasingly operate through cross-border networks, making democratic defense a matter of transnational coordination rather than isolated national response. Professor Barry Sullivan’s analysis of executive power highlighted how quickly constitutional limits can be weakened when legal restraint, institutional guardrails, and political accountability erode simultaneously. Professor Stephen Hanson then deepened the theoretical frame by arguing that the challenge lies not only in populism, but in patrimonial assaults on rational-legal state institutions.

The discussion further clarified the scale of the task ahead. Democratic actors must confront not only charismatic leaders and polarizing rhetoric, but also durable networks of loyalty, weakened bureaucracies, politicized law, and public distrust of expertise. At the same time, the panel suggested that authoritarian projects are not invulnerable. Their dependence on loyalty over competence can produce policy failures, social backlash, and renewed openings for democratic mobilization.

In sum, the panel showed that democratic defense requires more than resisting individual leaders. It demands coordinated institutional renewal, protection of professional public service, civic vigilance, and a persuasive democratic language capable of reconnecting citizens to the rule-bound state. In this sense, the defense of liberal democracy is both a political struggle and a project of institutional reconstruction.

CPAC

ECPS Symposium 2026 / Panel 1: From Grievance to Radicalization — Rhetoric, Ideology, and the International Politics of Populism

Please cite as:
ECPS Staff. (2026). “ECPS Symposium 2026 / Panel 1: From Grievance to Radicalization — Rhetoric, Ideology, and the International Politics of Populism.” European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). April 28, 2026. https://doi.org/10.55271/rp00149

 

This panel offered a concise yet conceptually rich account of how contemporary populism transforms diffuse grievances into structured political radicalization. Bridging discourse analysis, religious studies, international political economy, and historical sociology, the discussion illuminated the multi-layered processes through which democratic erosion unfolds. Rather than locating the problem solely within institutional decline, the panel foregrounded the interplay of rhetoric, identity, and emotional mobilization—particularly the roles of humiliation, status anxiety, and perceived loss of recognition. Contributions by Professors Ruth Wodak, Julie Ingersoll, Stephan Klingebiel, and Benjamin Carter Hett collectively demonstrated that populist dynamics are sustained by both narrative construction and structural change. The session thus advanced a nuanced analytical framework for understanding how anti-pluralist politics emerge, normalize, and gain legitimacy across diverse contexts.

Reported by ECPS Staff

Panel 1 of the ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium, titled “From Grievance to Radicalization: Rhetoric, Ideology, and the International Politics of Populism,” offered a rich and interdisciplinary examination of how discontent is translated into exclusionary politics, institutional erosion, and authoritarian opportunity. Bringing together perspectives from discourse studies, religious studies, development policy, and modern history, the panel explored the pathways through which grievance is narrated, organized, and mobilized across national and transnational contexts. Although the presentations addressed distinct empirical terrains—from far-right rhetoric in Europe and Christian nationalism in the United States to multilateral institutions and the lessons of Weimar Germany—they converged around a shared concern: democratic decline rarely emerges suddenly, but is prepared through the cumulative interaction of ideas, identities, institutions, and political strategies.

Moderated by Professor Ibrahim Ozturk, the session unfolded as a tightly connected conversation on the mechanisms through which populist and far-right forces gain traction in moments of social unease and political dislocation. A central strength of the panel lay in its refusal to treat populism as a singular or self-explanatory phenomenon. Instead, the speakers unpacked the rhetorical, ideological, emotional, and institutional infrastructures that enable anti-pluralist politics to flourish. 

Professor Ruth Wodak showed how democratic norms are eroded through discourse, provocation, and the normalization of exclusionary language. Professor Julie Ingersoll demonstrated how theocratic and anti-democratic religious movements, though internally diverse, have strategically converged to influence contemporary American politics. Professor Stephan Klingebiel widened the frame to the international level, showing how populist governance affects not only domestic politics but also the normative foundations of multilateral cooperation. Professor Benjamin Carter Hett, drawing on the history of late Weimar Germany, highlighted humiliation and status anxiety as powerful emotional drivers of anti-system politics, offering a historically grounded lens for understanding present-day grievance mobilization.

Taken together, the panel made clear that contemporary democratic crises cannot be understood through institutional analysis alone. What emerged instead was a layered account in which fear, humiliation, identity, ideology, and strategic communication are inseparable from formal political change. The subsequent discussion deepened these insights further, linking personal experience, comparative reflection, and normative concerns in ways that reinforced the panel’s interdisciplinary value.

In this sense, Panel 1 did more than diagnose the current moment. It established an intellectual framework for thinking about how democratic erosion is prepared, legitimized, and accelerated across multiple arenas. By tracing the movement from grievance to radicalization, the session illuminated not only the fragility of democratic norms, but also the urgency of confronting the political, cultural, and institutional conditions that allow authoritarian and exclusionary projects to take root.

 

Professor Ruth Wodak: ‘Driving On the Right’: Analyzing Far-Right Rhetoric.

Professor Ruth Wodak is Emerita Distinguished Professor of Discourse Studies at Lancaster University, affiliated with the University of Vienna, and a member of the ECPS Advisory Board.

Professor Ruth Wodak’s presentation offered a theoretically grounded and empirically attentive exploration of how democratic erosion unfolds through discourse, rhetoric, and the gradual normalization of exclusionary politics. As the first speaker of the panel, Professor Wodak set a reflective and analytically rigorous tone by anchoring her remarks in a historical insight from John Dewey. Quoting his 1931 warning that democracy becomes a farce when citizens are not equipped to think critically and recognize propaganda, she established a conceptual bridge between past and present. While acknowledging that historical analogies must be handled with caution, she argued that certain patterns—particularly the weakening of critical judgment and the manipulation of public discourse—remain deeply relevant for understanding contemporary political developments.

Building on this premise, Professor Wodak turned to the identification of observable criteria that signal when democracies are under threat. Drawing in part on recent analytical frameworks and public debates, she outlined a series of interrelated developments that characterize processes of autocratization. These included attacks on freedom of expression, the systematic defamation or marginalization of political opponents, pressures on judicial independence, and the potential use of emergency powers to bypass institutional constraints. Additional indicators encompassed the gradual discrimination of minorities, the erosion of press freedom, the undermining of academic and scientific autonomy, the emergence of personality cults, the spread of corruption and kleptocratic practices, and the strategic redesign of legal and electoral frameworks to consolidate power.

The Politics of Shameless Normalization

A central emphasis of her argument was that these developments rarely appear in their most extreme form at the outset. Rather, they emerge incrementally, as part of a cumulative and often normalized process. Each step, while perhaps appearing limited or defensible in isolation, contributes to a broader trajectory in which democratic norms are steadily weakened. This step-by-step dynamic, she suggested, is crucial for understanding why democratic backsliding can advance without triggering immediate resistance.

The core of Professor Wodak’s presentation focused on the linguistic and rhetorical mechanisms that facilitate this gradual transformation. At the center of her analysis was the concept of “shameless normalization,” which she has developed extensively in her work. This refers to a process through which the boundaries of what is publicly acceptable are progressively expanded. Statements, ideas, and attitudes that were previously considered taboo or beyond the limits of legitimate discourse are reintroduced, repeated, and ultimately rendered acceptable. Political actors present themselves as articulating what “ordinary people” supposedly think but have been unable or unwilling to express, thereby framing transgressive speech as a form of authenticity.

Professor Wodak highlighted that this process is often driven by continuous provocation. By deliberately testing and crossing normative boundaries, political actors can shift the parameters of public debate. Over time, what initially appears shocking or unacceptable becomes familiar and normalized. This strategy, she argued, is particularly effective when it is reinforced by broader political dynamics, including the willingness of mainstream actors to adopt or adapt elements of far-right discourse.

Importantly, she emphasized that normalization does not always take an overtly aggressive or confrontational form. Alongside provocation, one also encounters what she termed “coarse civility,” a mode of communication in which exclusionary or discriminatory ideas are presented in a seemingly moderate, polite, or technocratic language. This rhetorical softening allows such ideas to circulate more widely and gain legitimacy, especially when they are taken up by mainstream conservative parties. In this way, the normalization of far-right discourse often proceeds not only through radicalization at the margins, but through incorporation at the center.

To illustrate these dynamics, Professor Wodak drew on examples from Austrian politics. She traced the trajectory of a slogan originally used by a far-right politician in the 1980s, which emphasized speaking “the language of the people.” Over time, this slogan was adopted by a mainstream conservative leader and subsequently reappropriated by the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ). This example demonstrated how political language travels across ideological boundaries, shedding its original stigma and becoming part of a broader repertoire of acceptable discourse. Such processes, she argued, reveal how the mainstreaming of far-right ideas occurs through repetition, adaptation, and gradual legitimation.

Euphemism and Power: Sanitizing Coercion in Democratic Politics

In the final part of her presentation, Professor Wodak turned to the role of euphemism in shaping public perceptions of policy. Drawing on contemporary European debates on migration and asylum, she showed how practices such as detention are reframed through sanitized terminology, including phrases like “waiting zones” or “closed control access centers.” These linguistic choices, she argued, obscure the coercive nature of such measures and render them more palatable to the public. In this sense, language functions not merely as a descriptive tool, but as a mechanism that shapes what can be politically imagined and justified.

Professor Wodak concluded by synthesizing the broader implications of her analysis. Shameless normalization, she argued, performs multiple functions: it constructs a sense of authenticity, rejects the norms of rational deliberation, fosters identification between political leaders and “the people,” and diverts attention through provocation and scandalization. Most significantly, it facilitates the implementation of exclusionary and anti-democratic policies by embedding them within mainstream political discourse.

Her presentation thus underscored that democratic erosion is not only an institutional or legal process, but also a profoundly discursive one. The weakening of democracy occurs through shifts in language, norms, and public sensibilities, often long before formal institutional breakdown becomes visible. By foregrounding the role of rhetoric and normalization, Professor Wodak provided a compelling framework for understanding how contemporary democracies are challenged from within, and why resisting such processes requires not only institutional safeguards but also sustained critical engagement with political language and discourse.

 

Professor Julie Ingersoll: The Theocratic Blueprint of Christian Nationalism, Reconstructionism, the New Apostolic Reformation, and Catholic Integralism Behind Trump’s Agenda

Julie Ingersoll is Professor of Philosophy & Religious Studies and Religious Studies Program Coordinator at the University of North Florida.

Professor Julie Ingersoll’s presentation offered a detailed and analytically nuanced account of the ideological and organizational foundations of contemporary Christian nationalism in the United States, situating it as a significant—though not singular—driver of democratic erosion. Her intervention moved beyond surface-level interpretations of religion in politics, instead tracing the historical formation, internal diversity, and strategic convergence of several distinct religious currents that have, over time, coalesced into a politically influential coalition aligned with authoritarian and anti-pluralist tendencies.

Professor Ingersoll began by clarifying a crucial analytical point: Christian nationalism in the United States is not a monolithic or representative expression of Christianity as a whole. Rather, it is a minority movement whose political influence far exceeds its demographic weight. This disproportionate power, she argued, is the product of decades-long institutional work, coalition-building, and strategic positioning within key domains of political and cultural life. Understanding its impact, therefore, requires attention not only to its beliefs but to the mechanisms through which it has embedded itself within broader structures of authority.

Three Strands, One Project: The Convergence of Christian Nationalism

At the core of her analysis was the identification of three principal strands that together constitute contemporary Christian nationalism: a white conservative evangelical tradition rooted in Christian Reconstructionism, a Catholic integralist tradition, and a Pentecostal-charismatic current associated with the New Apostolic Reformation (NAR). Each of these strands, Professor Ingersoll demonstrated, has its own theological foundations, historical trajectories, and internal logics. Yet, despite significant doctrinal differences, they have converged around shared political objectives and a common perception of existential crisis.

The first strand, Christian Reconstructionism, was presented as a theocratic and patriarchal movement with origins in mid-twentieth-century American religious thought and deeper roots in earlier Southern Presbyterian traditions. Professor Ingersoll emphasized its rejection of pluralism and its insistence that biblical law should govern all aspects of social and political life. Central to this framework is the concept of “calling,” derived from Calvinist theology, which legitimizes hierarchical social arrangements and challenges the democratic principle that authority derives from popular consent. In this view, leadership is not conferred through elections but through divine designation, a premise that fundamentally undermines democratic legitimacy.

The second strand, Catholic integralism, similarly rejects the separation of church and state, advocating instead for a political order grounded in religious authority. Professor Ingersoll noted its growing influence within legal and judicial institutions, particularly through long-term efforts to shape the composition and orientation of the judiciary. Integralist thought, she argued, frames modern liberal institutions—especially those promoting equality—as sources of moral and social decay. Its critique of the administrative state and its support for a strong, centralized executive authority align closely with broader authoritarian tendencies.

The third strand, the New Apostolic Reformation (NAR), introduces a distinct but complementary dimension rooted in charismatic and Pentecostal traditions. This movement emphasizes ongoing revelation, spiritual warfare, and apocalyptic expectation. Its doctrine of the “Seven Mountains Mandate” envisions the systematic transformation of key societal domains—such as government, media, education, and culture—under Christian authority. Professor Ingersoll highlighted the movement’s belief in the active presence of spiritual forces in contemporary political life, a worldview that intensifies polarization and, in some cases, increases the potential for legitimizing conflict and even violence.

Political Convergence in Religious Movements

A central analytical contribution of the presentation lay in explaining how these three strands, despite profound theological disagreements, have formed a cohesive political alliance. Professor Ingersoll challenged the conventional “world religions” model, which treats religious traditions as internally coherent and mutually distinct systems. Instead, she proposed a more fluid understanding of religion as a set of practices and narratives that can be selectively combined to serve social and political purposes. In this framework, doctrinal inconsistencies are less significant than shared goals related to power, identity, and social ordering.

To illustrate this point, she examined differing approaches to biblical authority across the three traditions. While Catholic integralists rely on the interpretive authority of the Church, evangelicals emphasize direct textual interpretation, and Pentecostal-charismatic actors embrace ongoing revelation. These differences, while substantial, are subordinated in practice to a set of shared political commitments: the rejection of pluralism, the affirmation of hierarchical social structures, the belief in divinely ordained leadership, and the pursuit of a theocratic or quasi-theocratic order.

Professor Ingersoll further argued that these movements are united by a common narrative of civilizational crisis. Each interprets contemporary social and political developments—whether related to gender equality, racial justice, or secular governance—as evidence of moral decline. This sense of crisis provides both a justification for radical political intervention and a framework for mobilizing supporters. Within this narrative, democratic institutions are often portrayed not as safeguards of freedom, but as obstacles to the restoration of a divinely sanctioned social order.

Internal Tensions within Christian Nationalism

The presentation also addressed the strategic flexibility of this coalition. While its proponents may utilize democratic mechanisms to gain power, they do not view democracy as intrinsically valuable. Rather, democracy is treated instrumentally, as one possible means of achieving a broader objective. Authoritarian or hierarchical forms of governance are equally acceptable if they are perceived to align with divine authority. This instrumental view of democracy, Professor Ingersoll suggested, represents a fundamental challenge to liberal democratic norms.

In her concluding remarks, Professor Ingersoll pointed to emerging internal tensions within the movement. Differences in theological interpretation, strategic priorities, and leadership styles are beginning to generate visible fractures. For example, divergent understandings of apocalyptic timelines or the role of political violence create points of friction. Additionally, certain political developments—such as controversial leadership claims or symbolic actions—have alienated segments within the coalition. While these divisions do not currently outweigh the movement’s shared objectives, they may become more significant over time.

In sum, Professor Ingersoll’s presentation provided a comprehensive and deeply contextualized analysis of Christian nationalism as a complex, evolving, and strategically coordinated force. By highlighting its internal diversity, institutional entrenchment, and ideological coherence around anti-pluralist principles, she illuminated the ways in which religious narratives and political power intersect in contemporary democratic backsliding. Her analysis underscored that the challenge posed by such movements is not merely theological or cultural, but fundamentally political, with direct implications for the future of democratic governance.

 

Professor Stephan Klingebiel: International Organizations in Times of Populism

Professor Stephan Klingebiel is Head of the Department of Inter- and Transnational Cooperation at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).

Professor Stephan Klingebiel delivered a wide-ranging and analytically grounded presentation examining how the contemporary rise of populism—particularly under the second administration of Donald Trump—is reshaping international organizations, development cooperation, and the normative foundations of global governance. His intervention moved carefully between institutional analysis and broader systemic implications, offering both empirical observations and conceptual framing.

At the outset, Professor Klingebiel positioned his remarks at the intersection of two overlapping domains: the functioning of international organizations and the evolving discourse on development and sustainability. He focused especially on the United Nations Development System, the OECD, and multilateral development banks such as the World Bank. These institutions, he argued, serve not only operational roles in development assistance but also act as key norm-setters in shaping global cooperation. It is precisely these normative and institutional roles that have come under increasing pressure in the current political climate.

From Multilateralism to Uncertainty

Reflecting on developments since early 2025, Professor Klingebiel suggested that the treatment of development cooperation—particularly the dismantling of USAID—served as an early signal of broader patterns in the second Trump administration’s approach to international engagement. What initially appeared as a sector-specific shift quickly revealed itself as part of a more comprehensive reorientation affecting multilateralism as a whole.

To explain these dynamics, Professor Klingebiel identified four interrelated driving logics. First, he pointed to what he termed “crude transactionalism,” a form of foreign policy that reduces international cooperation to immediate, bilateral exchanges rather than long-term institutional commitments. While transactional approaches have long existed in development policy, he argued that the current form is qualitatively different in its intensity and scope, extending into areas such as conflict mediation and geopolitical bargaining.

Second, he highlighted the role of ideological motivations, particularly in relation to issues such as family planning, gender policy, and population governance. Certain international agencies, including those working on reproductive health, have become focal points of contestation, reflecting deeper ideological divides over the scope and purpose of development cooperation.

Third, Professor Klingebiel emphasized the element of institutional disruption driven not by coherent strategy but by what he described as systemic unpredictability. Drawing on insider accounts of the dismantling of USAID, he suggested that many policy decisions appear to lack a consistent strategic foundation, instead reflecting fragmented and reactive processes.

Finally, he identified an “obsession with disruption” as a defining feature of the current approach. This involves the deliberate use of abrupt and highly visible actions—such as withdrawal announcements or dramatic policy shifts—to reshape expectations and unsettle established practices within international cooperation.

Populism and the Fragmentation of Global Cooperation

These underlying logics have translated into a series of concrete policy outcomes. Among the most striking is the dramatic reduction in US foreign aid, which, according to recent OECD data, declined by approximately 57 percent within a single year. Such a contraction, Professor Klingebiel noted, has profound implications not only for recipient countries but also for the broader ecosystem of development actors, including civil society organizations and democracy-support initiatives.

Equally significant is the announced withdrawal from dozens of international bodies. While the practical implementation of these withdrawals remains uneven, their symbolic impact is considerable. They signal a retreat from multilateral engagement and contribute to an atmosphere of uncertainty regarding the future of global cooperation.

However, Professor Klingebiel’s central concern extended beyond these immediate policy shifts to their deeper normative consequences. He argued that the most consequential impact of contemporary populism lies in its erosion of shared frameworks that have historically underpinned international cooperation. These include not only formal institutions but also the implicit agreements on language, priorities, and goals that enable collective action.

This erosion was illustrated through the example of the United Nations 2030 Agenda and its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Once widely accepted as a minimal global consensus on issues such as poverty reduction, inequality, and gender equality, this framework is now increasingly contested. Professor Klingebiel noted that it has been reframed by some political actors as a form of “soft global governance” incompatible with national sovereignty, leading to active efforts to undermine it.

Fragmented Vocabulary, Fragmented Order

A particularly revealing dimension of this shift is the politicization of language itself. Drawing on recent analyses, Professor Klingebiel described how specific terms—such as “gender,” “gender-based violence,” and “climate change”—have become sites of contestation within international forums. The rejection of these terms is not merely semantic; it reflects a broader attempt to reshape the normative boundaries of acceptable discourse. In practice, this has led to subtle but significant changes, with institutions adopting alternative terminology that dilutes or reframes established concepts.

This process, he argued, contributes to a broader fragmentation of normative consensus. Where international cooperation once relied on a shared vocabulary and a baseline agreement on goals, it now operates within an increasingly contested and politicized environment. This fragmentation is further intensified by the emergence of competing visions of world order, in which different actors promote alternative frameworks for development and governance.

At the same time, Professor Klingebiel cautioned against attributing these transformations solely to Western populism. He emphasized the growing agency of actors in what is often termed the Global South, including countries such as China and India, as well as smaller states that increasingly pursue multi-alignment strategies. These actors are not merely passive recipients of global norms but active participants in shaping them, contributing to a more complex and pluralistic international landscape.

Within this evolving context, development cooperation itself is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Rather than serving primarily as a tool for poverty reduction or social development, it is increasingly embedded within geopolitical and geo-economic competition. Institutions originally designed for development purposes are being repurposed to secure access to strategic resources or to advance national interests.

Pockets of Cooperation: Uneven Continuity in Global Governance

Despite this challenging environment, Professor Klingebiel identified areas of cautious optimism. He pointed to the emergence of what he termed “mixed coalitions”—alliances that bring together actors from both the Global North and South who remain committed to multilateralism. Additionally, he highlighted the existence of “pockets of effectiveness,” instances in which international cooperation continues to function successfully despite broader systemic pressures.

These pockets, while limited, suggest that multilateralism is not uniformly in decline but rather unevenly contested. Understanding the conditions under which cooperation remains viable, Professor Klingebiel suggested, may offer valuable insights for sustaining and rebuilding international frameworks in the future.

In concluding, his presentation offered a sober but nuanced assessment. The current moment is marked not only by policy shifts but by a deeper transformation of the principles and assumptions that have long guided international cooperation. Yet within this transformation, there remain spaces for adaptation, coalition-building, and renewed engagement—provided that these efforts are grounded in a clear understanding of the changing landscape.

 

Professor Benjamin Carter Hett: Humiliation, Elite Impunity, and the Anti-System Gamble — Weimar-Type Mechanisms in Contemporary Grievance Politics

Professor Benjamin Carter Hett.
Professor Benjamin Carter Hett is a leading historian of Nazi Germany at Hunter College and the Graduate Center, CUNY.

Professor Benjamin Carter Hett’s presentation offered a historically grounded and analytically provocative reflection on the political mechanisms that enabled the collapse of the Weimar Republic and the rise of National Socialism, while also considering the relevance of those mechanisms for contemporary grievance politics. Drawing on decades of research into late Weimar Germany, Professor Hett approached the subject with both scholarly caution and interpretive clarity. He was careful not to collapse historical contexts into one another, yet he argued that certain recurring dynamics—particularly humiliation, status anxiety, and the search for anti-system solutions—remain crucial for understanding how democratic orders become vulnerable to authoritarian appeals.

Professor Hett began by acknowledging the uneasy position of the historian in conversations about the present. Historians, he suggested, may at times reconstruct the past with care, but they are not necessarily the best guides to contemporary politics or future developments. Nonetheless, his long engagement with the final years of the Weimar Republic had led him to a set of conclusions about why that democracy failed, and these conclusions, he argued, may still offer insight into current political developments.

Humiliation and Status Anxiety

The core of Professor Hett’s argument was that the Nazi breakthrough in Germany cannot be fully understood simply through economic distress, institutional weakness, or generalized political radicalization. While all of these factors mattered, he emphasized that the message which most powerfully resonated with Nazi voters was a message organized around humiliation and its close companion, status anxiety. The emotional and symbolic dimensions of political life, in his reading, were central. What drove substantial sectors of the electorate toward the Nazis was not only hardship, but the belief that they had been dishonored, displaced, and stripped of their rightful standing.

To develop this claim, Professor Hett drew on voting studies, especially the work of German political scientist Jürgen W. Falter, whose statistical analyses remain among the most important accounts of Nazi electoral support. Since Germany in the late 1920s and early 1930s did not have opinion polling in the modern sense, scholars must reconstruct political behavior by examining constituency-level voting patterns and comparing them with the themes emphasized in Nazi campaigning. This allows one to identify which messages resonated with which groups, and why.

From this evidence, Professor Hett argued that Nazi appeals found their strongest reception among those constituencies most susceptible to humiliation and fears of status loss. These were particularly concentrated among Protestant middle-class voters, especially in rural northern and eastern Germany. The Nazi Party’s success, in his account, lay in its ability to transform diffuse anxieties into a coherent political narrative: Germany was being humiliated by external forces, weakened by internal enemies, and betrayed by a democratic system incapable of defending national dignity.

A major source of this humiliation, he suggested, was Germany’s place in the post-World War I international order. The Treaty of Versailles, reparations, the international oversight of German finance, and the constraints imposed on national sovereignty created a pervasive sense that Germany had lost control over its own destiny. Economic arrangements linked to reparations, including the role of international banking mechanisms and the subordination of German monetary policy to Allied preferences, reinforced this sense of national dependency. What later generations might describe as resentment toward globalization, Professor Hett argued, already had clear political expression in this period, even if the term itself was not yet available.

Seeds of Nazi Mobilization

This resentment was especially powerful in the countryside. Reduced tariffs and intensified agricultural competition placed heavy pressure on German farmers, especially in the north and east, where farm bankruptcies became common. At the same time, Germany’s limited ability to control its eastern border, particularly with newly established Poland, turned migration and refugee flows into volatile political issues. These developments fed the perception that the democratic state was either unwilling or unable to defend the nation’s interests. The Nazis capitalized on precisely these grievances, presenting themselves as nationalist champions against foreign domination, financial dependency, border insecurity, and economic dislocation.

Professor Hett also introduced a second, equally important dimension of humiliation: the perceived loss of religious and cultural status among German Protestants. Here his analysis intersected with broader questions of identity and belonging. Before World War I, Protestantism had enjoyed a privileged position within the German Empire. But the Weimar Republic, in the eyes of many Protestants, appeared to be politically shaped by forces outside that tradition. Its principal architects and defenders included Social Democrats, Catholics, and the Jewish legal scholar Hugo Preuss, who played a major role in drafting the constitution.

For many Protestants, Professor Hett argued, this generated a deep sense of displacement. They experienced the new order not merely as politically different, but as a system in which they had lost social and moral primacy. In electoral terms, this proved crucial. Catholics largely did not vote Nazi, in part because they had a confessional political home within the Center Party and did not feel comparably estranged from the Weimar system. Nor did the industrial working-class core of the Social Democrats move en masse toward the Nazis. The party that the Nazis most successfully destroyed, Professor Hett observed, was the Protestant middle class. In this sense, National Socialism became, to a significant degree, the party of aggrieved Protestant respectability.

This reading also enabled Professor Hett to place Weimar Germany within a broader comparative pattern. Across the authoritarian turn of the 1920s and 1930s, humiliation appeared repeatedly as a politically generative force. Citing the work of historian Robert Paxton, he noted that the rise of fascist or authoritarian systems correlated strongly with defeat in World War I—or, in some cases, with a perceived defeat. Italy, for example, had technically emerged from the war on the victorious side, yet many Italians experienced the outcome as a “mutilated victory,” a phrase that captured their sense of insult and dispossession. Authoritarian politics fed on that perception.

Global Echoes: From MAGA to European Anti-Globalization Movements

Having established these historical mechanisms, Professor Hett turned more tentatively to the present. Here he stressed again that analogies must remain cautious, yet he argued that the politics of humiliation and status anxiety are clearly visible in contemporary democracies, especially in the United States. In his view, these dynamics are among the strongest factors behind support for Donald Trump. Trump’s appeal, he suggested, has been rooted not simply in policy commitments or ideological clarity, but in the promise of retribution for those who feel displaced by social and demographic change.

The rhetoric of “I am your retribution,” which Trump used in the 2024 campaign, was especially telling in this regard. Retribution for what, Professor Hett asked implicitly, if not for a perceived historical loss of primacy? The contemporary politics of race, migration, and hostility to diversity initiatives were, in his interpretation, best understood as efforts to reassure a predominantly white constituency that feels that others have unjustly advanced at its expense. The appeal to a mythologized past—captured in slogans such as “Make America Great Again”—functions not simply as nostalgia, but as a restoration narrative aimed at those who believe they have been humiliated by modern equality.

Professor Hett then broadened the frame to Europe. Anti-globalization sentiment, he argued, has played a comparable role in the rise of populist and authoritarian parties across the continent. The Brexit vote, the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), and wider resentment toward migration all reflect forms of status anxiety tied to the belief that one’s country is becoming “someone else’s country.” In the German case, he pointed especially to eastern Germany, where support for the far right remains heavily concentrated. Drawing on personal observations as well as broader political patterns, he described a durable sense among many East Germans that they have been serially humiliated since reunification.

From Status Loss to Authoritarian Opportunity

These feelings, he suggested, are not reducible to economics alone. They involve wounded dignity, symbolic exclusion, and the perception that one’s world has been politically and culturally devalued. In this sense, grievance politics becomes especially potent when it can link structural change to a narrative of dishonor.

Professor Hett concluded by suggesting, modestly, that if humiliation and status anxiety are indeed major drivers of anti-system politics, then effective democratic responses must address the material and symbolic conditions that sustain them. He mentioned the idea of a kind of “Marshall Plan 2.0” as one possible way of mitigating some of the economic transformations that deepen discontent. Yet he remained cautious about prescribing solutions beyond his field of expertise.

What his presentation offered most powerfully was not a simple warning from history, but a historically informed framework for thinking about how democracies are undone. By centering humiliation, elite impunity, and status loss, Professor Hett illuminated the emotional structure of grievance politics and the ways in which anti-system actors transform wounded identities into authoritarian opportunity.

 

Discussions

The Q&A session following the first panel unfolded as a reflective and deeply engaged exchange, bringing together personal testimony, empirical insight, and conceptual debate. The discussion not only reinforced several core arguments presented earlier—particularly those concerning humiliation, status anxiety, and democratic erosion—but also broadened the analytical frame by introducing additional variables, including pandemic effects, structural inequality, and adaptive institutional responses.

Irina von Wiese opened the exchange with a personal intervention that lent lived texture to the abstract dynamics discussed by Professor Benjamin Carter Hett. Drawing on her own experience as a West German working in eastern Germany immediately after reunification, she offered a candid account of the asymmetries that characterized that moment. As a young legal advisor involved in constitutional development in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, she observed what she described as a pervasive arrogance among West German professionals toward their East German counterparts—many of whom had endured political repression but lacked formal credentials. This imbalance, she suggested, generated a reservoir of resentment that remained latent for decades before finding political expression.

Her reflections underscored a central theme in Professor Hett’s analysis: that humiliation is not always immediate in its political effects, but can endure, accumulate, and eventually crystallize into protest or support for anti-system actors. Von Wiese noted that the eventual rise of far-right mobilization in eastern Germany was not sudden, but rather the delayed outcome of long-standing grievances awaiting political articulation. In this sense, the emergence of parties such as the far right can be seen less as the origin of discontent than as its vehicle.

Extending her argument beyond Germany, von Wiese pointed to similar dynamics in other contexts, including her experiences in the United States and the United Kingdom. She recalled the stark social contrasts she encountered outside elite academic environments in the United States during the early 1990s, particularly in relation to poverty and racial segregation. These conditions, she argued, formed part of the underlying landscape that later enabled figures like Donald Trump to mobilize political support. Likewise, she interpreted the Brexit campaign as deeply rooted in narratives of national decline and loss of status, with appeals to a diminished imperial past serving as a powerful emotional driver.

While affirming the explanatory value of humiliation and status anxiety, von Wiese also raised a critical question regarding remedies. She expressed skepticism about whether economic interventions alone—such as a modern “Marshall Plan”—would suffice, suggesting that deeper systemic transformations may be required, particularly in relation to inequality and the structure of contemporary capitalism. Her intervention thus shifted the discussion from diagnosis to the more difficult terrain of response.

The Multi-Dimensional Nature of Democratic Backsliding

Professor Ruth Wodak followed by situating the panel within a broader interdisciplinary framework. She emphasized the importance of integrating multiple analytical perspectives in order to grasp the complexity of contemporary democratic challenges. While acknowledging the relevance of Professor Hett’s emphasis on humiliation and recognition, she cautioned against overly singular explanations. In her view, democratic backsliding and far-right mobilization are multi-causal phenomena that cannot be reduced to a single driver.

Professor Wodak introduced two additional factors that she argued deserve greater attention. The first was the long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. She suggested that the pandemic generated widespread fear and uncertainty on a global scale, creating fertile ground for both authoritarian narratives and renewed forms of religiosity. Drawing on sociological insights, she noted that periods of existential anxiety often lead individuals to seek stability in identity-based frameworks, including religion, while also increasing susceptibility to aggression and polarization. In this sense, the pandemic may have functioned as an accelerant in the latest phase of far-right mobilization.

The second factor she highlighted was what might be termed anticipatory anxiety. While Professor Hett’s framework emphasizes the experience of humiliation and loss, Professor Wodak pointed to cases where far-right support is strongest not among the most economically deprived, but in relatively affluent societies. Citing examples such as Austria, Switzerland, and Denmark, she observed that high levels of prosperity have not prevented the rise of far-right parties. Instead, she suggested, these contexts are characterized by a fear of losing existing advantages—a forward-looking anxiety rather than a retrospective grievance. This introduces a subtle but important distinction: the politics of resentment may be driven as much by perceived future decline as by past injustice.

Turning to the question of institutional response, Professor Wodak engaged with the earlier presentation by Professor Stephan Klingebiel on the politicization of development discourse. She noted that while certain policy areas—such as gender and climate—have become targets of political contestation, actors within international organizations have begun to develop adaptive strategies. One such strategy involves reframing or relabeling projects in order to avoid triggering ideological opposition, while continuing substantive work under different terminology. This form of quiet institutional resilience, she suggested, illustrates how bureaucratic actors may navigate hostile political environments without abandoning core objectives.

At the same time, Professor Wodak did not understate the severity of recent developments, particularly the dismantling of major development institutions and the reduction of aid flows. She highlighted the moral and human consequences of such policies, noting the stark contradiction between global wealth concentration and the withdrawal of support for the world’s most vulnerable populations. Her remarks conveyed both analytical concern and normative urgency.

Explaining Religious-Political Convergence

The Q&A session continued with a focused exchange between Dr. Bulent Kenes, and Professor Julie Ingersoll, centering on the timing and recent consolidation of religiously driven political movements in the United States. The question probed a central puzzle emerging from the panel: while religious actors have long played a role in American public life, why have certain strands of Christian nationalism reached a new peak of visibility and influence at this particular historical juncture?

In posing the question, Dr. Kenes framed the issue as one of convergence. He invited Professor Ingersoll to reflect on whether the current moment could be explained by the interaction of structural and contingent factors—demographic change, economic insecurity, intensifying political polarization, and the strategic mobilization of religious networks within populist movements. His formulation implicitly shifted the discussion from historical description to causal explanation, asking not simply what these movements are, but why their influence has crystallized now.

In her response, Professor Ingersoll offered a careful recalibration of the premise. She challenged the assumption that these religious formations have always existed in their present form, emphasizing instead their relatively recent consolidation. While acknowledging that certain traditions—particularly Catholic political engagement—have deep historical roots, she argued that the specific configurations associated with contemporary Christian nationalism represent a more recent development. These movements, in her account, should not be understood as continuous extensions of longstanding traditions, but as new iterations shaped by decades of strategic organization.

A central element of her explanation was the long-term institutional work undertaken by groups such as the Christian Reconstructionists. Over several decades, these actors invested in building parallel educational infrastructures, including private Christian school networks that later evolved into homeschooling systems. These institutions did more than provide alternative education; they cultivated generational continuity, transmitting a distinct worldview and historical narrative that diverged from mainstream interpretations. This process, Professor Ingersoll suggested, has created a durable social base capable of sustaining and amplifying political influence.

Importantly, she situated the expansion of these networks within a specific historical context: the desegregation of public schools. The timing was consequential. As integration policies reshaped the public education system, segments of white evangelical communities withdrew into private and religious schooling structures. While often framed in theological terms, this shift also intersected with broader social and racial dynamics, allowing communities to maintain separation while articulating their choices through religious language. Over time, these parallel institutions became key sites of ideological formation.

Professor Ingersoll also pointed to more recent catalysts, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic. Echoing earlier remarks in the panel, she argued that the pandemic functioned as a moment of intensified mobilization. Religious actors capitalized on widespread uncertainty and fear, framing public health measures—such as restrictions on gatherings—as threats to religious freedom. This narrative, she suggested, resonated strongly within conservative constituencies, reinforcing existing suspicions of state overreach and contributing to a broader sense of existential threat.

At the same time, Professor Ingersoll emphasized that no single factor can account for the current prominence of these movements. Rather, their rise reflects the cumulative effect of long-term organizational strategies interacting with more immediate political and social disruptions. What appears as a sudden surge is, in her formulation, the visible outcome of processes that have been unfolding over decades.

Secularization, Inequality, and Backlash

The exchange moved beyond diagnosis toward a more reflective interrogation of responsibility, causality, and the limits of existing analytical frameworks. Professor Jack A. Goldstone suggested that what is currently unfolding across multiple contexts is not merely the resurgence of religion or populism in isolation, but the normalization of an assertive and exclusionary ideological fusion—where perceived humiliation is channeled into aggressive identity-based politics. In this reading, religious nationalism operates not only as belief, but as a vehicle for reasserting dominance in response to status loss.

Professor Goldstone then turned a critical eye toward the role of social science itself, arguing that earlier intellectual assumptions may have inadvertently contributed to the present moment. The expectation that secularization would steadily marginalize religion, he suggested, proved deeply misleading. Instead, policies and discourses shaped by this assumption often alienated religious communities, creating fertile ground for backlash movements that now seek to reintegrate religion into the core of political authority. Parallel to this, he identified a second misjudgment in economic thinking: the prioritization of growth over distribution. While aggregate prosperity increased, the failure to address inequality produced widespread discontent, reinforcing perceptions of exclusion and injustice.

Extending this argument, Professor Goldstone highlighted a longer-term global transformation. Over the past half century, the relative dominance of Western societies has eroded, as economic and technological advancements in other regions have reshaped the global hierarchy. This shift, he argued, has unsettled previously taken-for-granted assumptions of superiority among segments of Western populations. The resulting nostalgia—rooted in a memory of unchallenged status—feeds contemporary grievance politics. His central question, directed to the panel, concerned how societies might address this structural recalibration without intensifying resentment, exclusion, and the normalization of antagonistic rhetoric.

The Deepening Impact of Populist Pressure

Responding to earlier interventions and this broader framing, Professor Stephan Klingebiel emphasized that the current transformations cannot be reduced to discursive shifts alone. While the strategic avoidance or substitution of politically sensitive terminology—such as replacing “climate change” or “gender” with more neutral language—may offer short-term tactical advantages, he cautioned that such practices risk deeper forms of self-censorship. This “self-policing,” as he described it, signals not adaptation but internalization of external pressure, ultimately weakening the normative foundations of international cooperation.

Professor Klingebiel further underscored that the stakes extend beyond language to the substance of policy and institutional priorities. Changes in funding allocations, the redirection of development agendas, and the politicization of multilateral institutions reflect a broader erosion of solidarity. He pointed to a shifting political climate in which engagement with development cooperation—once a source of professional and political legitimacy—has become increasingly stigmatized. This transformation, he suggested, illustrates how populist pressures reshape not only public discourse but also the incentives and self-perceptions of policymakers.

At the same time, Professor Klingebiel stressed the necessity of active resistance. Silence or strategic accommodation, in his view, risks accelerating the very dynamics it seeks to navigate. Instead, he advocated for the formation of new coalitions among actors committed to multilateralism and democratic norms. Crucially, he also called for a rethinking of how academic and policy communities communicate their work. Empirical evidence, while indispensable, is no longer sufficient in isolation. To counter populist narratives effectively, scholars must engage more directly with the emotional and symbolic dimensions of political life—crafting narratives that resonate beyond technocratic audiences.

In sum, this segment of the discussion highlighted a convergence around a central insight: contemporary democratic challenges are sustained by an interplay of structural change, emotional response, and discursive transformation. Addressing them requires not only institutional reform or policy adjustment, but also a deeper engagement with the narratives through which individuals interpret their place in a rapidly changing world.

 

Conclusion

Panel 1 of the symposium offered more than a set of parallel analyses; it articulated a coherent and multi-dimensional understanding of how contemporary democratic erosion takes shape. Across the presentations and subsequent discussion, a consistent insight emerged: populist radicalization is neither episodic nor accidental, but the outcome of long-term interactions between structural transformations, ideological projects, and affective dynamics. Grievance, as the panel demonstrated, does not automatically translate into anti-democratic politics. It becomes politically consequential when it is narrated, organized, and strategically mobilized through discursive, institutional, and symbolic means.

A central contribution of the panel lies in its insistence on integrating the emotional and the structural. Processes such as humiliation, status anxiety, and fear of future loss were shown to operate not as secondary effects, but as constitutive elements of political mobilization. At the same time, these affective dynamics are embedded within broader shifts – economic dislocation, geopolitical reordering, and the erosion of normative consensus in international cooperation. The convergence of these factors creates conditions under which exclusionary ideologies can gain legitimacy and resonance across diverse contexts.

Equally important was the panel’s attention to the role of agency – both in the emergence of populist forces and in the responses available to democratic actors. The discussions highlighted how political entrepreneurs, religious movements, and institutional actors actively construct narratives that transform diffuse unease into coherent political projects. Yet they also pointed to the adaptive capacities within democratic systems, including the formation of new coalitions, the persistence of institutional “pockets of effectiveness,” and the possibility of recalibrating political communication to address not only facts, but meanings and emotions.

The implications of these insights are both analytical and normative. If democratic erosion is prepared through gradual normalization, discursive shifts, and the instrumentalization of identity, then its counter requires equally sustained and multidimensional responses. Institutional reforms, while necessary, are insufficient in isolation. What is required is a renewed engagement with the cultural, social, and emotional foundations of democratic life – an effort to reconstruct not only policies, but also the narratives and forms of recognition that underpin democratic legitimacy.

In sum, the panel underscored that the trajectory from grievance to radicalization is not predetermined. It remains contingent on how societies interpret, articulate, and respond to the pressures they face. Understanding this contingency is essential not only for diagnosing democratic decline, but for imagining pathways of resilience and renewal in an increasingly unsettled global order.

Professor Staffan I Lindberg, Director of the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden.  Photo: Johan Wingborg.

ECPS Symposium 2026 / Keynote by Professor Staffan I. Lindberg: The Chicken-and-Egg Dilemma — Systemic Crises and the Rise of Populism

Please cite as:
ECPS Staff. (2026). “Keynote by Professor Staffan I. Lindberg: The Chicken-and-Egg Dilemma — Systemic Crises and the Rise of Populism.” European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). April 28, 2026. https://doi.org/10.55271/rp00148

 

The opening session of the ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium offered a timely and intellectually rigorous entry point into one of the central dilemmas of contemporary politics: how liberal democracy can be defended, renewed, and reimagined amid systemic crisis and accelerating autocratization. Moderated by Professor Ibrahim Ozturk, the session combined normative urgency with empirical depth. In her opening remarks, Irina von Wiese underscored the geopolitical immediacy of democratic strain, while Professor Staffan I. Lindberg’s keynote, grounded in V-Dem data, traced the global scale of democratic erosion and challenged simplistic readings of populism by foregrounding anti-pluralism as a more precise analytical category. The discussion that followed further enriched the session, probing the measurement, lived experience, and reversibility of democratic decline across contexts.

Reported by ECPS Staff

The opening session of ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium opened on April 21, 2026 within a carefully structured intellectual framework that brought together empirical rigor, normative urgency, and interdisciplinary reflection. Moderated by Professor Ibrahim Ozturk, the opening segment of the symposium set out to interrogate one of the defining challenges of contemporary politics: how liberal democracies can be reformed and safeguarded in an era marked by systemic crises, populist mobilization, and intensifying pressures on institutional resilience.

From the outset, the session positioned itself at the intersection of scholarly analysis and real-world political developments. The framing emphasized that democratic backsliding is no longer a peripheral or regionally confined phenomenon, but a global trend with profound implications for governance, legitimacy, and international order. In this context, the symposium’s thematic focus—linking systemic crises to populism and democratic resilience—provided a coherent lens through which to examine both structural drivers and political responses.

The opening remarks by ECPS Honorary President Irina von Wiese underscored the urgency of the moment, situating the symposium within a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape. Her reflections highlighted the accelerating pace of political change, particularly in transatlantic relations, and the difficulty of keeping analytical frameworks aligned with unfolding realities. This sense of temporal compression—where events outpace interpretation—reinforced the need for sustained, collective intellectual engagement.

The keynote address by Staffan I. Lindberg, Professor of Political Science, University of Gothenburg, Founding Director (2012–2025) of V-Dem Institute, further anchored the session in empirical analysis, offering a data-driven diagnosis of global democratic decline. By questioning conventional interpretations of populism and emphasizing the role of anti-pluralism, the keynote set the stage for a deeper exploration of the mechanisms underlying democratic erosion.

The discussion segment that followed extended the analytical depth of the opening session by bringing empirical findings, methodological concerns, and lived political experience into direct dialogue. Participants engaged critically with the keynote’s claims, probing the interpretation of data, the pace and nature of democratic decline, and the conditions under which institutional resilience may still operate. The exchange moved fluidly between macro-level indicators and context-specific realities, revealing both the strengths and limits of comparative measurement in capturing complex political transformations. In doing so, the discussion underscored a central theme of the symposium: that understanding democratic backsliding requires not only robust data, but also careful attention to institutional nuance, temporal dynamics, and the contested nature of political change.

Taken together, the opening session established both the analytical foundations and the normative stakes of the symposium. It framed the subsequent discussions around a central tension: while the challenges facing liberal democracy are systemic and far-reaching, the possibilities for resilience and renewal remain contingent on timely, informed, and collective responses.

 

Opening Remarks

Irina von Wiese is ECPS Honorary President.

Irina von Wiese: Collective Intellectual Engagement in an Age of Uncertainty

At the opening of the ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium, ECPS Honorary President Irina von Wiese set a reflective yet urgent tone, situating the event within a rapidly shifting global landscape marked by political volatility and democratic uncertainty. Addressing a geographically dispersed audience, she welcomed participants with a sense of continuity—recalling previous in-person gatherings—while underscoring the heightened significance of this year’s theme: reforming and safeguarding liberal democracy amid systemic crises, populism, and pressures on democratic resilience.

Her remarks were anchored in the immediacy of unfolding geopolitical transformations. Drawing on the recent launch of ECPS’s annual report on transatlantic relations—presented in Brussels and subsequently in Washington, D.C.—she emphasized how swiftly the international environment has evolved, to the point that even the most up-to-date analyses risk rapid obsolescence. This acceleration of change, particularly in relations between the United States and Europe, was described as both profound and disorienting, challenging not only scholars but also policymakers striving to interpret and respond to events in real time.

A central thread in her intervention was the interplay between domestic political dynamics and global geopolitical shifts. Developments within major democratic actors, especially the United States and European Union member states, were identified as key drivers reshaping international alignments. Within Europe itself, she noted ongoing political flux, including leadership changes and the persistent influence of populist forces, suggesting that the broader trajectory remains tilted toward autocratization rather than democratic renewal.

While deferring to the scholarly expertise of the symposium’s participants, von Wiese highlighted the normative and practical urgency of the symposium’s core question: whether contemporary populist surges signal a failure of liberal democracy or reflect more complex, reciprocal dynamics between institutions and political mobilization. This question, she implied, resists simplistic causal narratives and demands sustained interdisciplinary inquiry.

Importantly, her reflections were not confined to abstract analysis but grounded in lived political experience. Referencing her engagement in local electoral campaigning in the United Kingdom, she illustrated how broader patterns of populist mobilization are increasingly evident even in contexts once considered relatively resilient. Conversations with voters revealed familiar themes—disaffection, polarization, and shifting political allegiances—underscoring the diffusion of populist dynamics across national contexts.

In closing, von Wiese reaffirmed the value of collective intellectual engagement at a moment of uncertainty. By bringing together scholars and practitioners, the symposium was framed as a necessary space for critical reflection, exchange, and the generation of ideas capable of informing both academic debate and political practice.

 

Keynote Speech

Professor Staffan I. Lindberg: “The Chicken-and-Egg Dilemma: Systemic Crises and the Rise of Populism”

Figure from the V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2026.
Figure from the V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2026.

Professor Staffan I. Lindberg delivered a comprehensive and empirically rich keynote that addressed one of the most pressing questions in contemporary political science: how should we understand the relationship between systemic crises and the rise of populist—or more precisely, anti-pluralist—politics? Framed as a “chicken-and-egg dilemma,” the lecture did not seek a simplistic causal answer. Instead, it mapped a complex, mutually reinforcing relationship between structural transformations, political agency, and institutional erosion, grounded in extensive cross-national data and longitudinal analysis.

Professor Lindberg began by situating his remarks within the broader findings of the V-Dem Institute’s 2026 Democracy Report, drawing on an expansive dataset that captures global developments in democratic governance, civil liberties, and institutional integrity. He presented a stark visual overview: a world increasingly marked by autocratization. Compared to the optimism that followed the “third wave” of democratization—beginning in the mid-1970s and extending through the end of the Cold War—the contemporary landscape is characterized by a reversal of democratic gains. The spread of red across global maps, indicating declining democratic quality, is not merely symbolic but empirically substantiated.

Yet, as Professor Lindberg emphasized, the interpretation of this decline depends critically on how democracy is measured. Conventional country-averaged indicators suggest a gradual, statistically significant downturn over the past two decades. On the surface, this might appear concerning but not catastrophic. However, such averages treat all countries equally, regardless of population size or global influence. This methodological limitation, he argued, obscures the true magnitude of the crisis.

When democracy is measured in terms of the average citizen’s experience—weighting countries by population—the picture changes dramatically. Under this lens, global democratic standards have regressed to levels last seen in the late 1970s. This implies that the cumulative gains achieved during decades of democratization have effectively been erased for the majority of the world’s population. Alternative weightings, including territorial size and share of global GDP, further reinforce this conclusion. In particular, the GDP-weighted measure reveals that economic power is increasingly concentrated in less democratic contexts, underscoring the geopolitical implications of democratic decline.

The New Era of Accelerating Autocratization

From this perspective, Professor Lindberg advanced a central claim: the world is experiencing a systemic crisis of democracy. This is not a localized or temporary fluctuation but a structural transformation affecting a majority of the global population. Indeed, approximately three-quarters of humanity now live under autocratic regimes. Such a statistic, he suggested, fundamentally alters the baseline assumptions of both scholarly analysis and policy discourse.

To deepen this diagnosis, the keynote shifted from static measurements to dynamic processes. Rather than focusing solely on aggregate levels of democracy, Professor Lindberg examined the number of countries actively democratizing or autocratizing at any given time. This approach revealed a striking asymmetry. During the mid-1990s, the peak of the third wave, over 70 countries were simultaneously advancing democratic reforms. Today, that number has dwindled to fewer than 20. In contrast, the number of countries undergoing autocratization has risen sharply, reaching levels unprecedented in modern history.

This comparative perspective led to one of the keynote’s most provocative assertions: the current wave of autocratization surpasses that of the 1930s in both scale and intensity. While acknowledging differences in the number of sovereign states across periods, Professor Lindberg noted that the proportion of countries and the share of the global population affected by democratic decline are now higher than during the interwar era. Moreover, the duration of the current trend—spanning approximately 25 years—exceeds that of earlier waves, suggesting a more entrenched and potentially more resilient pattern.

The cumulative nature of this transformation was further illustrated through a longitudinal analysis of autocratization episodes since the year 2000. Over this period, approximately 85 countries—nearly half of the world—have experienced significant democratic erosion. Importantly, the majority of these countries remain less democratic today than they were at the onset of the century. Even in cases where temporary reversals have occurred, the overall trajectory remains downward.

Democratic Resilience Amid Global Decline

Despite this bleak global picture, Professor Lindberg acknowledged instances of democratic recovery. Countries such as Brazil and Poland were highlighted as examples where broad-based political coalitions succeeded in reversing autocratizing trends. These cases demonstrate that democratic resilience is possible, particularly when diverse political actors unite around a shared commitment to institutional norms. However, such reversals remain the exception rather than the rule.

Having established the scale and depth of the crisis, the keynote turned to its underlying drivers. Professor Lindberg identified two interrelated mechanisms as particularly significant: the spread of disinformation and the intensification of political polarization. Drawing on both macro-level patterns and a growing body of micro-level experimental research, he argued that these factors play a central role in facilitating autocratization.

The relationship between disinformation and democratic decline is not merely correlational but strategic. In autocratizing contexts, governments and aligned actors systematically increase the production and dissemination of misleading or false information. This is not an accidental byproduct of political competition but a deliberate tactic. By flooding the information environment with contradictory narratives, these actors undermine citizens’ ability to distinguish between truth and falsehood. The resulting epistemic uncertainty erodes trust in institutions, media, and even the possibility of objective knowledge.

This process, Professor Lindberg suggested, has profound psychological effects. Faced with uncertainty about fundamental issues—national identity, economic prospects, security—individuals may become more receptive to appeals for strong leadership. In such contexts, the promise of clarity and decisiveness can outweigh concerns about democratic norms. Disinformation thus creates the conditions under which anti-democratic appeals become politically effective.

Disinformation, Polarization, and Democratic Breakdown

The second stage of the process involves the targeted use of disinformation to delegitimize political opponents. By portraying adversaries as existential threats—enemies of the nation, culture, or way of life—political actors can intensify polarization to a “toxic” level. At this point, the boundaries of legitimate political competition collapse, and the exclusion or repression of opposition becomes justifiable in the eyes of supporters. This dynamic, in turn, facilitates the concentration of power and the erosion of democratic checks and balances.

Importantly, Professor Lindberg cautioned against attributing these developments solely to “populism.” While the term is widely used to describe contemporary political movements, he argued that it lacks sufficient conceptual precision. Instead, he proposed focusing on “anti-pluralism” as the key analytical category. Drawing on data from the V-Party project, he demonstrated that political actors who reject pluralism—manifested in rhetoric that delegitimizes opposition, undermines democratic procedures, and concentrates authority—are significantly more likely to initiate autocratization once in power.

This finding has important implications. While populist rhetoric may coexist with anti-pluralist tendencies, it is not in itself a reliable predictor of democratic breakdown. Rather, it is the erosion of pluralist commitments—the willingness to accept political competition, institutional constraints, and the legitimacy of dissent—that signals the greatest danger. In this sense, anti-pluralism represents a more precise and normatively grounded concept for analyzing contemporary democratic challenges.

Empirical Evidence of Anti-Pluralist Democratic Decline

The empirical analysis supporting this argument was extensive. By operationalizing indicators derived from classic theoretical frameworks, including Juan Linz’s work on democratic breakdown, Professor Lindberg and his colleagues were able to track the evolution of party rhetoric over time. The results revealed a strong and consistent relationship between anti-pluralist discourse and subsequent democratic decline. This pattern holds across regions and political systems, underscoring its general applicability.

A particularly striking illustration of these dynamics was provided through the case of the United States. Using the Liberal Democracy Index, Professor Lindberg traced a sharp decline in democratic quality in recent years. While acknowledging the historical resilience of American institutions, he argued that the scale and speed of the current erosion are unprecedented. When compared to other cases of autocratization—such as Hungary, Turkey, and India—the United States stands out for the rapidity of its decline.

In comparative terms, the extent of institutional erosion observed in the United States over approximately one year is equivalent to processes that took several years in other countries. This includes the weakening of judicial independence, constraints on media freedom, and the concentration of executive power. Such developments, he noted, are not isolated but part of a broader pattern of executive aggrandizement—a gradual but systematic dismantling of democratic safeguards.

To convey the magnitude of this shif, Professor Lindberg drew a historical parallel with the early years of authoritarian consolidation in 1930s Germany. While careful to distinguish between contexts, he emphasized that the comparison is based on measurable indicators rather than rhetorical analogy. In terms of the speed and depth of democratic decline following an electoral victory, the current US trajectory is among the most dramatic recorded in modern datasets.

At the same time, the keynote emphasized that these processes are neither inevitable nor irreversible. The existence of democratic recoveries, albeit limited, points to the the importance of political agency and institutional resilience. Broad coalitions, civil society mobilization, and the defense of pluralist norms can counteract autocratizing trends. However, such efforts require both analytical clarity and sustained commitment.

Mutual Reinforcement of Crisis and Anti-Pluralism

In concluding his remarks, Professor Lindberg returned to the “chicken-and-egg” dilemma. Rather than resolving it definitively, he suggested that systemic crises and anti-pluralist mobilization are mutually constitutive. Economic inequality, cultural anxiety, and geopolitical instability create fertile ground for political actors who exploit division and uncertainty. In turn, the strategies employed by these actors—disinformation, polarization, institutional manipulation—exacerbate the very crises that enabled their rise.

This recursive dynamic, he argued, lies at the heart of the current democratic crisis. Understanding it requires moving beyond simplistic narratives and engaging with the complex interplay of structure and agency. By combining large-scale data analysis with theoretical insight, the keynote provided a robust framework for such engagement.

Ultimately, Professor Lindberg’s address offered both a sobering diagnosis and a call to action. The erosion of liberal democracy is neither abstract nor distant; it is a lived reality for the majority of the world’s population. Yet the tools for understanding and responding to this challenge—empirical data, comparative analysis, and interdisciplinary dialogue—are more developed than ever. The task, as framed in this keynote, is to deploy these resources with urgency, precision, and a renewed commitment to the principles of pluralism and democratic governance.

Discussions

During the Q&A session, von Wiese opened the discussion by expressing strong appreciation for the V-Dem Institute’s work, highlighting its importance as a reliable empirical resource for both scholars and practitioners. She then raised a pointed methodological question concerning the visual representation of democratic decline, particularly the apparent similarity in how Russia and the United States were depicted in one of the keynote slides. While explicitly acknowledging the seriousness of democratic backsliding in the United States, she noted that assigning similar visual intensity to two historically and institutionally distinct cases seemed counterintuitive, and invited clarification on the underlying classification criteria.

Responding to this query, Professor Lindberg emphasized that different slides captured different dimensions of democratic change. He clarified that in the principal map depicting current levels of democracy, the United States is still categorized as a democracy—albeit a declining one—while Russia occupies a markedly lower position. He acknowledged ongoing scholarly debate on this classification, noting that some experts consider the United States to have already crossed into competitive authoritarianism. However, according to V-Dem’s methodology, electoral indicators—updated during election cycles—still sustain its formal democratic classification pending further data.

Turning to the slide likely referenced, Professor Lindberg explained that it illustrated not absolute levels of democracy but the magnitude of change over time. In this context, countries are visually grouped according to the extent of their democratic decline rather than their current regime type. As such, the United States and Russia may appear similarly marked because both have experienced substantial downward shifts, albeit from very different starting points. Crucially, he underscored that the United States, despite recent erosion, remains significantly more democratic than Russia at comparable points in its trajectory.

Institutional Dynamics and the Limits of Executive Power

Bruce E. Cain is Professor of Political Science, Stanford University; Director, Bill Lane Center.

The exchange between Professor Bruce E. Cain and Professor Lindberg brought into sharp focus an important tension between macro-level measurement and context-sensitive interpretation of democratic change. While both scholars agreed on the seriousness of contemporary democratic pressures, their dialogue revealed differing emphases regarding how to interpret the pace, depth, and institutional consequences of recent developments, particularly in the United States.

Professor Cain began by acknowledging the significance of Professor Lindberg’s research, while nonetheless expressing concern about what he perceived as potentially misleading visual representations. Speaking from the vantage point of lived political experience in the United States, he argued for a more nuanced reading of recent trends. In his view, it is essential to distinguish between rhetorical ambition, temporary political advantage, and enduring institutional transformation. While conceding that the trajectory described in the data might reflect the intentions of political leadership, he cautioned against equating those intentions with fully realized outcomes.

Central to Professor Cain’s intervention was the institutional variability of the American political system. He emphasized the importance of differentiating between periods of “trifecta” government—where executive and legislative power are unified—and periods of divided government. In an era of heightened polarization, he argued, these configurations produce more pronounced effects than in the past. Under unified control, executive authority can be rapidly expanded through coordinated legislative support and administrative action. However, this expansion is contingent rather than permanent. Once political control becomes divided, institutional resistance intensifies, slowing or reversing policy initiatives and reasserting checks and balances.

Professor Cain further highlighted the role of judicial processes, particularly the strategic use of procedural mechanisms such as the “shadow docket,” which can temporarily enable controversial executive actions. In his interpretation, some policies advanced under these conditions may ultimately be overturned, suggesting that the system retains corrective capacities. He also pointed to additional constraints—including public opinion, partisan opposition, and market reactions—that continue to shape political outcomes. Taken together, these dynamics suggest a more fluid and contested process than a linear model of democratic decline might imply.

In response, Professor Lindberg clarified that the contested visualizations were intended to capture the magnitude of democratic change rather than absolute regime equivalence. The similarity in color intensity, he explained, reflects the scale of decline relative to each country’s starting point, not a convergence in regime type. The United States, despite significant erosion, remains at a substantially higher level of democratic performance than historically autocratic regimes.

At the same time, Professor Lindberg defended the empirical basis of his broader argument, stressing that the pace and scope of institutional change in the United States are historically unprecedented. He pointed to the extensive use of executive orders, the shifting balance of power toward the presidency, and the systematic weakening of oversight mechanisms as indicators of substantial transformation. While acknowledging the presence of resistance and institutional friction, he maintained that these developments collectively represent a significant and measurable shift.

The exchange underscored the value of analytical pluralism. Professor Lindberg emphasized the importance of examining democratic change from multiple perspectives—both in terms of measurement and interpretation—while Professor Cain’s intervention highlighted the need to remain attentive to institutional dynamics and contextual variation. Together, their dialogue illuminated the challenges of capturing complex political realities through aggregate indicators, while reaffirming the importance of rigorous, multi-layered analysis in understanding contemporary democratic trajectories.

Erosion of Accountability in Practice

Professor Jack A. Goldstone, one of the world’s leading scholars of revolutions and social change, holds the Virginia E. and John T. Hazel, Jr. Chair in Public Policy at George Mason University. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center and Director of the Center for the Study of Social Change, Institutions and Policy (SCIP).

The discussion deepened as Professor Jack A. Goldstone entered the exchange, shifting the focus from methodological interpretation to the lived realities of political transformation in the United States. Speaking from his position in Washington, D.C., Professor Goldstone offered a vivid account of how institutional and symbolic changes are experienced on the ground, reinforcing and, in some respects, intensifying the concerns raised in the keynote.

He described a political environment marked by increasingly visible assertions of executive authority, from the personalization of public institutions to the reshaping of national symbols and spaces. These developments, he suggested, go beyond abstract indicators of democratic decline and manifest as tangible shifts in the character of governance and public life. Particularly striking in his account was the cumulative effect of such changes: taken individually, each might appear limited, but together they signal a broader reconfiguration of political norms.

Professor Goldstone placed special emphasis on pressures facing key pillars of democratic society, including universities, media, and civil liberties. He pointed to growing constraints on academic freedom, financial pressures on public institutions, and a climate in which both scholars and journalists may feel compelled to exercise caution in their speech. These dynamics, he argued, are compounded by structural changes predating the current administration, notably judicial decisions that have expanded executive immunity and facilitated the increasing influence of private and opaque funding in electoral politics. Such developments, in his view, have altered the institutional landscape in ways that extend beyond any single political actor.

While acknowledging the persistence of resistance, particularly at the level of state governments, local authorities, and lower courts, Professor Goldstone noted that these countervailing forces often face limitations, including judicial reversals and procedural constraints. The cumulative effect, he argued, is a system in which traditional mechanisms of accountability are increasingly strained, even if not entirely dismantled.

Responding briefly, Professor Lindberg affirmed the relevance of these observations, noting that many of the developments described are reflected in the empirical findings of the Democracy Report. He highlighted, in particular, the significance of recent judicial interpretations regarding presidential authority, which, in his assessment, effectively shift elements of legal accountability toward the executive. This, he suggested, represents not merely a policy shift but a structural reallocation of institutional power.

The Narrow Window for Democratic “U-Turns”

The discussion took a more forward-looking turn as Irina von Wiese raised the question of irreversibility in processes of democratic backsliding. Moving beyond diagnosis, her intervention focused on a critical concern for both scholars and practitioners: at what point does autocratization become so entrenched that democratic reversal is no longer realistically achievable through electoral means? Referencing recent political developments in Hungary and Poland, she highlighted both the possibility of reversal and the uncertainty surrounding its limits, asking whether there exists a threshold beyond which democratic recovery becomes unlikely.

In response, Professor Lindberg drew on empirical research conducted with colleagues on what he termed “U-turns,” or instances in which countries successfully reverse autocratizing trajectories. His findings suggest that such reversals tend to occur within a relatively narrow temporal window. Specifically, the likelihood of democratic recovery is highest within the first one or two electoral cycles following the onset of autocratization. Beyond this period, the probability declines sharply, indicating that time plays a decisive role in shaping political outcomes.

Professor Lindberg noted that cases such as Hungary, where a reversal occurred after a prolonged period of entrenched rule, are exceptional rather than typical. In most instances, once autocratizing actors consolidate control over key institutions, electoral competition becomes increasingly constrained, reducing the viability of democratic change from within the system. This observation aligns with broader research on electoral authoritarianism, which shows that repeated electoral cycles under such conditions tend to stabilize rather than undermine authoritarian rule.

Applying this framework to contemporary contexts, Professor Lindberg suggested that the window for democratic reversal in countries currently experiencing backsliding may be limited. Early intervention—whether through electoral mobilization, institutional resistance, or coalition-building—is therefore crucial. While he acknowledged that outcomes remain uncertain and contingent on multiple factors, the evidence points to a clear pattern: the longer autocratization persists, the more difficult it becomes to reverse.

Conclusion

The opening session of the ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium made clear that the current crisis of liberal democracy cannot be understood through narrow institutional or purely electoral lenses alone. What emerged instead was a layered picture of democratic erosion as a structural, political, and epistemic process shaped by anti-pluralist mobilization, disinformation, polarization, and the weakening of institutional constraints. By placing empirical measurement in dialogue with political experience and comparative reflection, the session demonstrated that democratic backsliding is both globally patterned and nationally specific.

A particularly important contribution of the session lay in its refusal of easy binaries. Rather than presenting democracy and authoritarianism as fixed categories, the speakers and discussants illuminated the gradations, accelerations, and contingencies that define contemporary regime change. At the same time, the discussion underscored that analytical precision matters: the distinction between populism and anti-pluralism, between absolute democratic levels and the magnitude of decline, and between reversible erosion and entrenched authoritarian consolidation all bear directly on how the present moment is interpreted.

The session also highlighted that democratic resilience cannot be assumed as an automatic property of established institutions. It depends on timing, coalition-building, civic vigilance, and the continued legitimacy of pluralist norms. If autocratization is indeed cumulative and self-reinforcing, then democratic defense must be equally deliberate, coordinated, and sustained.

In sum, the opening session provided more than an introduction to the symposium. It established a conceptual and normative framework for the discussions that followed, reminding participants that the defense of liberal democracy demands not only diagnosis, but also intellectual clarity, institutional imagination, and political resolve.

Peter Magyar.

Péter Magyar’s Two Early Signals: Migration, Mitteleuropa, and the Rearticulation of Hungarian Nationalism

In this ECPS European Observatory commentary, Dr. João Ferreira Dias offers a theoretically rich analysis of Péter Magyar’s electoral breakthrough, arguing that it should not be read as a simple liberal shift but as a reconfiguration of Hungarian nationalism. Focusing on migration and Mitteleuropa, he shows how Magyar preserves a moderated nationalist grammar while repositioning Hungary within a more plural, regionally grounded Europe. Rather than abandoning sovereignty or identity, this emerging project seeks to detach them from illiberal statecraft and reintegrate them into a European framework. The piece introduces the idea of a national Europeanism beyond Orbánism, highlighting the central question facing Hungary: whether nationalism can be rearticulated within democratic institutions without reproducing authoritarian dynamics.

By João Ferreira Dias

Péter Magyar’s victory in Hungary should not be read as the sudden liberalization of Hungarian politics. Such a reading would be analytically tempting, but politically misleading. A society shaped by post-socialist dislocation, imperial memories, border anxieties, regional asymmetries, and sixteen years of illiberal statecraft is unlikely to move overnight from national-conservative politics to post-national liberalism. The defeat of Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz marks a profound political rupture, but not necessarily an ideological tabula rasa. Yes, Magyar’s Tisza party won Hungary’s April 2026 election, ending Orbán’s sixteen-year rule and paving the way for the formation of a new government. Yet the more interesting question is not simply whether Hungary is “returning to Europe.” It is what kind of Europe, and what kind of nationalism, Magyar is now attempting to articulate.

The first signals suggest that Magyar’s emerging political project is not built against Hungarian nationalism, but through its reconfiguration. Its novelty lies less in abandoning the national grammar that Orbán radicalized than in relocating it within a more institutionally acceptable, pro-European, and strategically autonomous framework. Two discursive axes are particularly revealing. The first is migration, where Magyar preserves a nationalist concern with cultural cohesion, border control, and the limits of multicultural integration. The second is Mitteleuropa, where he appears to reimagine Hungary not as an isolated sovereigntist fortress, but as part of a Central European space capable of giving Europe greater internal plurality and strategic depth.

Taken together, these axes point towards a possible post-Orbán synthesis: nationalism without Orbán’s full illiberal infrastructure; Europeanism without unconditional deference to Brussels; and Central European regionalism without geopolitical ambiguity towards Moscow.

Migration and the Continuity of Nationalist Grammar

Migration remains the clearest field of continuity between Orbánism and the emerging Magyar project. Across Europe and the United States, immigration has become one of the privileged arenas through which contemporary nationalist politics articulates anxieties over identity, sovereignty, cultural continuity, and social trust. The populist radical right has been especially effective in transforming migration from a policy question into a symbolic frontier: between the nation and the outsider, order and disorder, cultural continuity and multicultural dissolution. In Cas Mudde’s terms, the radical right often combines nativism, authoritarianism, and populism, and migration is the issue through which these elements are most visibly condensed (Mudde, 2007). In the broader literature on cultural backlash, hostility to immigration is also interpreted as a reaction against cosmopolitanism, rapid value change, and perceived threats to national identity (Norris & Inglehart, 2019).

Orbán’s political genius was to radicalize this grammar and convert it into state ideology. Under his rule, migration was not merely a matter of border management. It became a civilizational drama: Christian Hungary against multicultural Europe; national sovereignty against Brussels; the border fence against liberal universalism. Migration offered Orbán a language through which economic insecurity, demographic anxiety, anti-EU resentment, and cultural conservatism could be fused into a single political narrative. 

Magyar’s position appears less incendiary, but not simply opposite. According to The Guardian, he argued that Europe had “mismanaged” the migration crisis and that the issue should have been addressed primarily in countries of origin, rather than by bringing populations into Europe. This is not the language of liberal multiculturalism. Nor is it the apocalyptic rhetoric of Orbán’s civilizational border politics. It is something more subtle: a moderated, humanitarianized, and administratively respectable version of migration skepticism.

That ambiguity is politically important. On the surface, the emphasis on addressing migration in countries of origin can seem pragmatic and humane. It recognizes that migration has causes — war, poverty, instability, state failure, climate pressures — and that durable solutions cannot be reduced to reception policies in Europe. Yet the same formula may also operate as a politically acceptable form of closure: solidarity without settlement, assistance without multicultural transformation, responsibility without internal absorption.

This is where Magyar’s discourse preserves a nationalist grammar while softening its tone. Migration remains framed not only as a humanitarian issue, but as a question of cultural cohesion and governability. The political community is still imagined as something whose boundaries must be protected, whose identity cannot be indefinitely diluted, and whose social trust depends on controlled membership. In that sense, Magyar does not fully break with Orbán’s migration politics. He changes its register.

The distinction is therefore not between nationalism and liberalism. It is between two uses of nationalism. Orbán embedded nationalist discourse within an illiberal regime marked by institutional capture, constitutional engineering, media domination, and clientelist power consolidation; features widely discussed in the literature on Hungary’s hybrid and illiberal transformation (Bozóki & Hegedűs, 2018; Krekó & Enyedi, 2018; Scheppele, 2018). Magyar, by contrast, seems to be attempting to detach national-conservative discourse from that authoritarian infrastructure. His wager is that Hungarian voters did not reject nationalism as such; they rejected corruption, exhaustion, state capture, deteriorating public services, and Russia-friendly isolation.

This is a crucial insight. Orbán did not fall because nationalism disappeared from Hungarian society. He fell because his nationalism became inseparable from regime fatigue. Magyar’s challenge is therefore not to erase the national vocabulary, but to make it governable again.

Mitteleuropa and the Reinvention of European Agency

If migration reveals the continuity of Hungarian nationalist grammar, Mitteleuropa reveals its attempted transformation. Magyar’s Europeanism should not be read simply as a return to Brussels after the long Orbán years. It seems better understood as an effort to recover Central Europe as a strategic, historical, and political space within a more multidimensional Europe.

This distinction matters. A merely Brussels-centered interpretation would reduce Magyar’s project to normalization: Hungary returns to the European mainstream, restores its institutional credibility, unlocks EU funds, and abandons Orbán’s obstructive diplomacy. 

There is truth in this reading. The new government’s early economic and ministerial signals suggest an emphasis on policy stability, EU funds, and economic recovery. But this is not the whole story. Magyar’s rhetoric points not only to reintegration, but to repositioning.

Mitteleuropa is not a neutral geographical term. It carries historical density. It evokes empires, shifting borders, multilingual societies, imperial collapse, Soviet domination, peripheralization, and the recurring experience of being located between larger powers. In Milan Kundera’s famous formulation, Central Europe was a kidnapped West: culturally Western, politically displaced eastwards by history (Kundera, 1984). Later interpretations of post-1989 Central Europe have stressed another dimension: the ambivalent relationship between liberal imitation, Western tutelage, and the resentment generated by the feeling of being permanently evaluated from outside (Krastev & Holmes, 2019).

Orbán exploited this historical repertoire through a politics of resentment. Hungary was presented as a besieged nation: pressured by Brussels, misunderstood by liberal elites, threatened by migration, and entitled to defend its own civilizational path. Sovereignty became trench warfare. Europe was not a plural home, but a disciplinary center. Central Europe became less a region of European agency than a rhetorical shield against liberal-democratic constraints.

Magyar appears to be proposing a different use of the same historical memory. His Mitteleuropa is not necessarily a retreat from Europe, but a way of making Europe more internally plural. It suggests that Hungary need not choose between two poor alternatives: Orbán’s nationalist isolation or passive obedience to a Brussels-centered technocratic order. Instead, Central Europe can be imagined as a third space: European but not submissive; nationally rooted but not authoritarian; historically conscious but not paranoid.

This is the deeper meaning of the “return of Mitteleuropa.” It is not nostalgia for empire. Nor is it a romantic escape from the European Union. It is a proposal for a Europe made of historical regions with their own memories, vulnerabilities, and strategic vocabularies. In this vision, Hungary is not a void between Germany and Russia, nor a problematic periphery to which Brussels grants certificates of good behavior. It is part of a Central European constellation capable of shaping Europe from within.

The contrast with Orbán is again instructive. Orbán’s Europe was vertical: Brussels above, Hungary below, sovereignty as resistance. Magyar’s Europe appears potentially horizontal: Paris, Berlin, Vienna, Prague, Bratislava, Warsaw, Zagreb, Ljubljana, Rome, Copenhagen, Brussels, and Budapest as parts of a plural continental architecture. Such a Europe is not merely a union of institutions; it is a field of regions, memories, and strategic positions.

This does not make Magyar a liberal cosmopolitan. Rather, it suggests a form of national Europeanism. The nation remains the primary symbolic community, but Europe becomes the necessary arena of agency. Mitteleuropa provides the bridge between the two. It allows Magyar to say that Hungary can be proudly national without being anti-European, and European without becoming politically weightless.

A Post-Illiberal National Europeanism?

Magyar’s two early signals therefore reveal a more complex ideological architecture than the language of “liberal victory” allows. Migration preserves the nationalist grammar. Mitteleuropa gives that grammar a new European geography.

The first axis is defensive: it protects the boundaries of the political community, insists on cultural cohesion, and keeps alive a skepticism towards large-scale multicultural integration. The second is expansive: it seeks to recover agency for Hungary and Central Europe within a more plural, multidimensional Europe. One axis looks inward, towards identity and membership. The other looks outward, towards regional strategy and European architecture.

The tension between them may define the coming Magyar period. If the nationalist grammar of migration hardens, it may reproduce exclusionary assumptions under a more polished vocabulary. If Mitteleuropa becomes another language of exceptionalism, it may simply replace Orbán’s resentment with a more elegant form of regional self-importance. But if the two axes are held in democratic balance, they may allow Hungary to move beyond Orbán without demanding that Hungarian society abandon the national vocabulary through which it still understands itself.

That is why Magyar’s project should not be understood as post-national liberalism. It is better described as an attempt at post-illiberal national Europeanism: a politics that preserves sovereignty, identity, and Central European memory, while seeking to detach them from authoritarianism, corruption, and Russian dependency.

The real test of post-Orbán Hungary will therefore not be whether nationalism disappears. It will not. The test is whether nationalism can be rearticulated within democratic institutions, European pluralism, and a regional imagination capable of enriching Europe rather than fragmenting it.

Magyar’s early discourse suggests that this is precisely the wager: to keep the nation but change its political grammar; to return to Europe, but not as a pupil; to recover Mitteleuropa, not as nostalgia, but as strategy.


 

References

Bozóki, A. & Hegedűs, D. (2018). “An externally constrained hybrid regime: Hungary in the European Union.” Democratization, 25(7), 1173-1189. https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2018.1455664

Krastev, I. & Holmes, S. (2019). The light that failed: A reckoning. Allen Lane.

Krekó, P. & Enyedi, Z. (2018). “Explaining Eastern Europe: Orbán’s laboratory of illiberalism.” Journal of Democracy, 29(3), 39–51. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2018.0043

Kundera, M. (1984). “The tragedy of Central Europe.” The New York Review of Books, 31(7), 33–38.

Mudde, C. (2007). Populist radical right parties in Europe. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511492037

Norris, P., & Inglehart, R. (2019). Cultural backlash: Trump, Brexit, and authoritarian populism. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108595841

Scheppele, K. L. (2018). “Autocratic legalism.” The University of Chicago Law Review, 85(2), 545–584.

Associate Professor Petar Stankov.

Assoc. Prof. Stankov: Too Early to Say Bulgaria’s Radev Will Act as an Orbán 2.0, He Looks More Like Fico 

In an interview with the ECPS, Associate Professor Petar Stankov offers a nuanced assessment of Bulgaria’s post-election trajectory under Rumen Radev. Challenging alarmist comparisons, he argues that “it is too early to tell” whether Radev will become an Orbán-style leader, suggesting instead that he “looks more like Fico,” pursuing a pragmatic balancing strategy. Assoc. Prof. Stankov interprets the electoral outcome as “a demand for stabilization after prolonged institutional volatility,” rather than a clear ideological shift. While economic constraints limit disruptive policymaking, he warns that the greater risk lies in institutional capture, particularly if opportunities for judicial reform are missed. Ultimately, Bulgaria’s trajectory will depend on whether reformist or rent-seeking dynamics prevail.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

In the aftermath of Bulgaria’s April 2026 parliamentary elections, the country finds itself at a critical juncture shaped by the tension between political stabilization and the risk of democratic erosion. Following years of fragmentation, repeated elections, and institutional fatigue, Rumen Radev’s newly established Progressive Bulgaria party secured a decisive majority, capitalizing on anti-corruption sentiment, voter exhaustion, and socioeconomic anxieties linked to eurozone integration. While this outcome has brought a measure of political clarity, it has also intensified debates over Bulgaria’s democratic trajectory and its positioning between the European Union and Russia.

In a written interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Associate Professor Petar Stankov, Senior Lecturer in Economics at Royal Holloway, University of London, offers a nuanced and analytically grounded interpretation of these developments. Challenging alarmist comparisons, Assoc. Prof. Stankov argues that “it is too early to tell” whether Radev will evolve into an Orbán-style leader, suggesting instead that he “looks more like Fico,” pursuing a pragmatic balancing strategy rather than an overtly confrontational illiberal project.

At the core of Assoc. Prof. Stankov’s analysis is the argument that Radev’s victory reflects “a demand for stabilization after prolonged institutional volatility,” rather than a coherent ideological realignment. The electoral coalition that brought him to power, he notes, was “mobilized against discredited incumbents, not a coherent positive ideology,” drawing support from both left- and right-leaning constituencies. This heterogeneity, in turn, underscores the enduring salience of identity politics in Bulgaria, where Radev’s “balanced position” on Russia’s war in Ukraine resonated deeply “on identity grounds.”

Situating these dynamics within his broader framework of populist cycles, Assoc. Prof. Stankov characterizes Radev as “a short-term manifestation of populist demand,” rooted less in economic distress than in identity and fairness concerns, particularly dissatisfaction with the judicial system. In this sense, Bulgaria’s political landscape reflects structural patterns rather than exceptional rupture.

The interview also addresses the central question of whether Radev’s anti-corruption mandate will lead to institutional renewal or facilitate a new phase of power concentration. Here, Assoc. Prof. Stankov highlights a fundamental tension between reformist impulses and entrenched interests, warning that outcomes will depend on whether political actors pursue “institutional repair” or the redistribution of “political rents.”

On foreign policy, Assoc. Prof. Stankov underscores the importance of strategic ambiguity. While Radev may be “a natural candidate to do the Kremlin’s bidding,” he is unlikely to pursue a confrontational course vis-à-vis the EU, instead maintaining a careful balancing act shaped by Bulgaria’s structural constraints. Economically, these constraints significantly limit his room for maneuver, but Assoc. Prof. Stankov cautions that “politically, he may do more damage” if opportunities for judicial reform are squandered.

Ultimately, this interview with ECPS presents a measured yet critical assessment of Bulgaria’s evolving political order. By rejecting simplistic analogies and foregrounding structural dynamics, Assoc. Prof. Stankov highlights both the constraints and the risks inherent in Radev’s ascent—capturing a moment in which the promise of stability coexists uneasily with the possibility of democratic backsliding. 

Here is the edited version of our interview with Associate Professor Petar Stankov, revised slightly to improve clarity and flow.

A Vote for Stability, Not Ideology

Bulgarian President Rumen Radev.
Then-Bulgarian President Rumen Radev speaks to the media following his meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker at EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on January 30, 2017. Photo: Dreamstime.

Professor Stankov, what does Rumen Radev’s landslide victory tell us about Bulgaria’s current political position after eight elections in five years? Should this outcome be interpreted primarily as a demand for stability and anti-corruption reform, or as evidence of a deeper ideological realignment?

Assoc. Prof. Petar Stankov: Radev’s victory is best read as a demand for stabilization after prolonged institutional volatility, rather than a clear ideological departure from underlying voter preferences. It mobilized a coalition against discredited incumbents, not a coherent positive ideology. What earned Radev support from the electorate was also his balanced position on the war that Russia started in Ukraine. As Russia has, justifiably or not, a special place in the hearts and minds of many Bulgarians, this stance resonated deeply on identity grounds.

How should we situate Radev’s victory within your broader theory of populist cycles? Does his rise reflect a classic populist moment in which economic anxiety, elite discredit, and identity-based grievances converge into a new electoral coalition?

Assoc. Prof. Petar Stankov: Populist cycles are a long-term phenomenon. Radev is a short-term manifestation of populist demand, which is consistently strong in Bulgaria. The theory of populist cycles rests on identity, fairness, and economic pillars. If it offers the appropriate lens through which to view Bulgarian politics at the moment, then identity and fairness certainly played a role, though less so the state of the economy. Identity mattered because voters appear to have stopped associating themselves with previous pro-Western populists, finding insufficient representation in them. Fairness also played a role, as the condition of the judicial system is no longer tolerable.

Identity Over Economics, Structure Over Cycles

In your earlier work on Bulgaria and Germany, you identify unemployment, inequality, trade openness, and migration as factors associated with stronger right-wing populist support. To what extent do these structural pressures help explain Radev’s success in 2026, even if he does not fit neatly into a conventional far-right mold?

Assoc. Prof. Petar Stankov: Yes, but only imperfectly. Cyclical pressures such as inflation and emigration may have been relevant. However, Radev’s support draws from both left- and right-leaning constituencies. This is consistent with identity factors and deeper structural issues shaping Bulgarian voters, rather than the cyclical factors that typically underpin a populist rise.

Radev won on an anti-corruption platform, but anti-corruption discourse in Central and Eastern Europe often serves as a bridge between democratic renewal and populist concentration of power. In your view, does his mandate open a path toward institutional repair, or does it risk legitimizing a new phase of executive centralization in the name of cleansing the system?

Assoc. Prof. Petar Stankov: This will depend on two opposing forces. On the one hand, there are new faces in politics under Radev who would like to start from scratch. This would be consistent with the institutional repair hypothesis. On the other hand, there are also some older figures among the incoming cohort of politicians who have not yet had the chance to secure a share of “political rents.” This would be consistent with the hypothesis that consolidation of power serves the redistribution of political rents rather than the renewal of democracy in Bulgaria. Whichever force prevails will determine whether Bulgaria moves toward rebuilding or redistributing. I sincerely hope that idealism will prevail, but history suggests that, in poorer countries, political rents often outweigh ideals.

Closer to Fico Than Orbán in Europe’s Fault Lines

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico speaks at a press conference following a Visegrad Group (V4) meeting in Prague, Czech Republic, on February 15, 2016. Photo: Dreamstime.

A central question for European observers is whether Radev represents the emergence of a new Orban-type actor inside the EU. Do you see him as a potential ideological successor to Orban in the nexus of EU-Russia tensions, or is that analogy too blunt for the Bulgarian case?

Assoc. Prof. Petar Stankov: On the surface, Radev and Orban appear more aligned with the interests of the Kremlin than with those of the EU. However, I think Radev strikes a more balanced tone, at least for now. Whether he will act as an Orban 2.0 is too early to tell, but I do not expect him to go as far as Orban did in his last term in office in terms of aligning with the Kremlin. At the same time, we should not be naive about Radev’s background: he is a military officer from a period when the Bulgarian army perceived NATO as an adversary and Russia as a source of public and ideological goods. It would be unnatural for him to suddenly change his identity.

If not Orban, is Radev better understood as closer to Robert Fico: rhetorically skeptical of Brussels and supportive of “pragmatic” relations with Moscow, yet constrained by economic dependence on the EU and by Bulgaria’s embeddedness in NATO and European institutions?

Assoc. Prof. Petar Stankov: I believe Radev fits that description. I expect him to pursue a balancing act without creating major disruptions for NATO or the EU.

How should we interpret Radev’s position on Ukraine? He has opposed military support and criticized parts of the EU’s approach, yet analysts suggest he may avoid outright vetoes while preserving Bulgaria’s role in the broader European defense ecosystem. Does this amount to strategic ambiguity, domestic balancing, or a more systematic geopolitical repositioning?

Assoc. Prof. Petar Stankov: It is not natural for Radev to oppose the interests of the Kremlin; doing so would run against who he is and how he has developed as an individual and as a politician. However, I do not think he is inherently confrontational. He projects confidence and a desire for dialogue, which may serve his strategy of ambiguity. Given his current level of electoral support, I do not think he needs to balance domestically—he holds the strongest political mandate in recent memory.

Pragmatism or Russophilia? A Shifting Political Language

What do Radev’s statements about renewing ties with Russia and rethinking Europe’s security architecture tell us about the evolving vocabulary of pro-Russian politics inside the EU? Are we seeing old-style Russophilia, or a newer populist language of “pragmatism,” sovereignty, and anti-moralism designed to be more electorally acceptable?

Assoc. Prof. Petar Stankov: Because of who Radev is, he is a natural candidate to do the Kremlin’s bidding in Europe, to re-legitimize the economic and political relationships between Europe and the Kremlin, and, why not, to do their dirty laundry. Let us not forget, however, that Radev represents a small and declining nation among many others. In that sense, although Radev is a valuable asset—the Kremlin will take any asset that comes its way at this stage—he is not its prime candidate. The Kremlin’s prime European asset is not even in Europe.

Your work argues that populists weaponize identity conflicts and economic hardships for political gain. In the Bulgarian case, which mattered more in this election: material grievances such as inflation, euro adoption, and living costs, or identity and geopolitical divisions over Russia, Europe, and national sovereignty?

Assoc. Prof. Petar Stankov: I believe the latter mattered more. Russian propaganda in Bulgaria is very strong, while the economy is not performing poorly enough for cyclical factors to outweigh identity conflicts.

Balancing Brussels and Moscow While Eyeing Judicial Reform

Radev is not a newcomer; he governed for years from the presidency before stepping down to seek executive power. Looking back at his presidential record, what patterns in his political style, institutional behavior, and crisis communication most help us anticipate how he may govern now as prime minister?

Assoc. Prof. Petar Stankov: It is hard for me to predict his moves as prime minister. Although he came to power with one of the most remarkable electoral victories in Bulgarian democratic history, he will probably not rush to disrupt what has worked well so far for the Bulgarian economy. For example, he attempted to launch a referendum on joining the Eurozone in his final year as president, but he would not take Bulgaria out of the Eurozone. He may be inclined to cozy up to the Kremlin, but he would not forgo the benefits of EU membership. What he could attempt—and history may credit him for—is to secure a constitutional majority for large-scale judicial reform. Whatever his rhetoric abroad, if he manages to fix that system, which has long hindered the development of a level playing field in Bulgaria, he will be remembered for his domestic achievements rather than his external balancing act.

Do you see Progressive Bulgaria as a durable governing project, or as a typical new-party vehicle built around a single leader and a temporary coalition of discontented voters? In other words, does this victory mark the stabilization of a new political order, or simply the latest phase in Bulgaria’s volatile anti-establishment cycle?

Assoc. Prof. Petar Stankov: Like any party built around a single leader rather than a consensual political platform, Progressive Bulgaria will likely fizzle out once Radev is no longer at its helm.

Reform Window or Lost Generation?

One of the themes in your research is that not all populists are equally damaging in economic governance, especially in Europe, where institutional constraints can mute the worst forms of macroeconomic populism. Given Bulgaria’s EU obligations, eurozone membership, and fiscal constraints, how much room does Radev actually have to behave as a disruptive populist in office? Yet your work also stresses that the economic moderation of populists does not necessarily prevent damage to the rule of law, democratic accountability, or civil society. If Radev is constrained economically, should the greater concern be institutional capture rather than macroeconomic irresponsibility?

Assoc. Prof. Petar Stankov: Economically, Radev has little room to do significant damage. His external constraints are substantial, and he would therefore be unable to pursue the kind of macroeconomic populism that has plagued Latin American economies in the past.

Politically, however, he may do more damage if he squanders his opportunity to build a majority for constitutional reforms that are vital for the country’s long-term development. If he does squander it, Bulgarians may need to wait another generation—or even two—before a similarly strong political figure emerges with a popular mandate for reform. 

This broader concern, that European populists may do more damage politically than economically, raises an important question: if economic constraints limit their capacity for harm, should political constraints also be strengthened? There has recently been a proposal for EU institutional reform to limit the consensus principle in certain areas, particularly foreign policy. Proposals of this kind may bring the European project closer to its original vision of uniting European nations under shared values. However, the trade-off is that many smaller states could become less influential in decision-making. To protect itself from malign external influence, the EU may need to reconsider some of its foundational principles—evolve, or else…

Looking ahead, what is your medium-term forecast for Bulgaria under Radev? Do you expect a pragmatic, nationally framed but still fundamentally European government; a creeping illiberal turn marked by pressure on the judiciary and media; or a shorter-lived experiment in which governing responsibilities quickly erode the broad electoral coalition that brought him to power?

Assoc. Prof. Petar Stankov: That depends on how quickly he starts forming a coalition for constitutional change. If this part of his agenda starts finding excuses to be pushed further back in time while mundane issues take centre stage, the medium-term forecast for Bulgaria would not be great. If a majority for constitutional changes takes centre stage in the political narrative coming from Radev, then I would be more optimistic. In general, I would be an optimist until proven wrong, which, given the Bulgarian experience of the last few decades, has never been a hard theorem to prove.

Bulgarian President Rumen Radev.

Assoc. Prof. Otova: Under Radev, the Path to Autocracy in Bulgaria Becomes All Too Easy

Associate Professor Ildiko Otova, in an interview with the ECPS, offers a compelling analysis of Bulgaria’s post-election trajectory under Rumen Radev. Following a landslide victory driven by anti-corruption sentiment and political fatigue, Radev has consolidated power in a system marked by institutional fragility. Assoc. Prof. Otova argues that his success reflects not a new geopolitical shift, but a strategic exploitation of existing cleavages, enabled by a “specific discursive situation” of empty rhetoric and symbolic politics. While his ambiguity has mobilized a broad electorate, it also masks deeper risks. As populism transitions from protest to governance, Assoc. Prof. Otova warns that, under conditions of concentrated power and weak safeguards, “the path to autocracy becomes all too easy.”

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

In the aftermath of Bulgaria’s April 2026 parliamentary elections, the country has entered a new and uncertain political phase marked by both the promise of stability and the risk of accelerated democratic erosion. Rumen Radev’s newly formed Progressive Bulgaria party secured a decisive majority after years of political fragmentation, capitalizing on widespread anti-corruption sentiment, voter fatigue with repeated elections, and growing socioeconomic anxieties following eurozone accession. While his victory ended a prolonged cycle of unstable coalition governments, it also raised urgent questions about the future trajectory of Bulgarian democracy, particularly given Radev’s ambivalent positioning between the European Union and Russia.

Giving an interview to the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Associate Professor Ildiko Otova, Head of Political Science Department at New Bulgarian University, offers a nuanced and analytically rigorous assessment of the structural and discursive dynamics underpinning Radev’s rise. As she argues, his victory “should not be attributed solely to Russia or to the broader Europe-Russia divide”; rather, it reflects a more complex political environment in which he has “skillfully exploited” existing cleavages, often “using minimal words and gestures to convey what different audiences want to hear.” This strategic ambiguity has allowed him to mobilize a remarkably heterogeneous electorate, ranging from pro-European reformists to nationalist and pro-Russian constituencies.

Assoc. Prof. Otova situates this development within a broader pattern of normalized populism in Bulgaria, where “what was once an episodic phenomenon has become a structural feature of the system.” In such a context, Radev’s success appears less as an anomaly than as the predictable result of a political order shaped by institutional distrust, party-system exhaustion, and what she terms a “specific discursive situation” characterized by cycles of “empty rhetoric” and symbolic politics. His campaign slogan, “We are ready, we can do it, and we will succeed,” captured this dynamic, offering not policy substance but an affective promise of exit from political stagnation.

At the same time, Assoc. Prof. Otova underscores the deeper identity tensions that continue to shape Bulgarian politics. Euroscepticism, she notes, is structured by enduring paradoxes, including the perception of the EU as an external imposition, contrasted with the framing of Russia as culturally “internal.” This ambivalence has enabled Radev to navigate competing geopolitical imaginaries while maintaining what she describes as a dual discourse, one directed at domestic audiences, another at Brussels.

Yet the central concern animating Assoc. Prof. Otova’s analysis is the transformation of populism from oppositional rhetoric into governing practice. With a consolidated parliamentary majority and limited institutional constraints, “concrete actions and policies are required,” and it is precisely under these conditions, she warns, that “the path to autocracy becomes all too easy.” In a system already marked by weak institutional safeguards and vulnerability to state capture, the concentration of executive power risks reproducing, rather than dismantling, entrenched oligarchic networks.

This interview with ECPS situates Bulgaria at a critical juncture. While Radev’s rise reflects broader global trends of democratic backsliding and populist normalization, Assoc. Prof. Otova’s insights highlight the contingent nature of political outcomes, shaped not only by leadership, but by institutional resilience, societal mobilization, and the unresolved tensions at the heart of Bulgaria’s democratic and European identity.

Ildiko Otova, an Associate Professor of Political Science and the Head of Political Science Department at New Bulgarian University.

Here is the edited version of our interview with Associate Professor Ildiko Otova, revised slightly to improve clarity and flow.

Not a New Cleavage, but a Strategic Exploitation of Old Divides

Professor Otova, given your argument that Bulgarian Euroscepticism must be read through the historically embedded Europe–Russia axis, does Rumen Radev’s victory mark a new phase in this cleavage, or merely its latest institutional expression?

Assoc. Prof. Ildiko Otova: Relations with Russia have long been central to Bulgarian politics, shaped by shared history, culture, personal connections, economic ties, and geopolitical factors. A widely circulated photo of Radev with Putin drew significant attention, prompting international media to describe him as “Russia’s new Trojan horse in Europe.” Experts have rightly pointed to Russia’s involvement in Radev’s political rise and raised concerns about campaign interference, online influence operations, and opaque funding sources suggesting substantial investment.

However, Radev’s victory should not be attributed solely to Russia or to the broader Europe–Russia divide. His win does not mark a new phase in this cleavage; rather, he has skillfully exploited it, using minimal words and gestures to convey what different audiences want to hear. In a campaign—and a political environment—often full of empty rhetoric, Radev has become adept at using silence, paradoxically communicating exactly what various constituencies seek.

In practice, little is known about the figures in his party, but among those who have become visible, we observe both openly provocative pro-Russian positions and the exact opposite. This is not to downplay Russia’s role; instead, it underscores the need for more comprehensive explanations.

Euroscepticism Built on Cultural Paradoxes and Identity Tensions

To what extent does Radev’s rise reflect not only geopolitical ambivalence but also a deeper identity crisis in post-communist Bulgaria, where competing civilizational imaginaries—Europeanization, Slavic-Orthodox affinity, and post-socialist nostalgia—intersect? In your framework, how does this identity fragmentation reshape the nature of Bulgarian Euroscepticism?

Assoc. Prof. Ildiko Otova: Bulgarian Euroscepticism rests on several paradoxes. The first is that the EU and “Europe” are frequently depicted as external to Bulgaria and Bulgarians—as actors that impose unacceptable values and adopt a lecturing posture. Yet this hostility toward external influence does not extend to all external actors. Russia, for example, is often not perceived as foreign in the same way; rather, it is framed as culturally “internal” due to a presumed Slavic-Orthodox affinity.

The second paradox is temporal. Resistance to the EU did not precede Bulgaria’s accession but developed alongside it. Until the early 2000s, Bulgaria was characterized by a broad pro-European consensus. 

Third, although Bulgaria has been an EU member state for years, European issues remain weakly embedded in its domestic political agenda. This does not mean that anti-EU narratives are absent. On the contrary, they are visible in discourses about massive migration allegedly changing the national gene pool, “stealing” the pensions of the elderly because EU policies and values are too liberal, and attacks on so-called “gender ideology,” among other themes.

Fourth, the deeper Bulgaria’s European integration becomes, the more its political elites tend to adopt anti-European positions. This shift occurs primarily through the normalization of populism. In this sense, within the Bulgarian context, the relationship between Euroscepticism and populism is particularly important—though not predetermined. There are also examples of populist, anti-establishment projects that remain pro-European. Among voters, too, there are those who are anti-establishment and anti-corruption yet remain pro-European. Notably, Radev has managed to mobilize them as well, including a significant portion of the so-called Generation Z.

There is also one more factor that should not be overlooked: his flirtation with the idea of a potential referendum on the euro. People do not necessarily need a rational explanation for why food is expensive; they need someone or something to blame. Prices do not even have to rise in reality—it is enough to sustain a narrative of rising costs. In this sense, the timing and the overall situation played perfectly into Radev’s hands.

Exhaustion, Silence, and the Power of Narrative Control

Bulgaria protests.
Protesters chant anti-government slogans during a demonstration in central Sofia, Bulgaria on July 26, 2013. Photo: Anton Chalakov / Dreamstime.

Should Radev’s success be understood primarily as anti-establishment populism, geopolitical revisionism, or a hybrid formation in which anti-corruption discourse masks a deeper pro-Russian reorientation?

Assoc. Prof. Ildiko Otova: Any of these three explanations is valid, yet even taken together, they remain too simplistic. As a citizen, I find it increasingly difficult to remain silent about the pervasive corruption in Bulgaria and the broader condition of the country, or to withhold my solidarity with the despair my fellow citizens feel toward the political elite. After the events of recent years, and the evident futility of going to the polls for an eighth time, there is a sense of collective exhaustion. Nevertheless, I will attempt an answer within an academic framework.

In my view, the main reason for his victory lies in what I would describe as a specific discursive situation. Since 2020, Bulgaria has been caught not only in a cycle of repeated elections but also in a cycle of empty rhetoric. Radev has managed to control the narrative so effectively that he appears to tell everyone what they want to hear—largely through silence. This is neither classic anti-elitist rhetoric built on the populist trope of the corrupt elite versus the honest, long-suffering people nor a standard expression of movements grounded in a thin-centred ideology.

“We are ready, we can do it, and we will succeed”—the words with which he announced his departure from the presidency, later adopted as his campaign slogan—projected a sense of purpose. They offered not concrete details, but hope for an exit from a cycle of meaningless repetition. In a political environment where emotions and symbolic gestures carry greater weight than rational argument, and where both traditional and digital media amplify urgency and a pervasive sense of crisis, this has proven sufficient. For citizens who are exhausted and perceive threats as omnipresent, such messaging resonates deeply.

Populism as the New Normal in Bulgarian Politics

In your work with Evelina Staykova, you argue that populism in Bulgaria has become normalized through party-system exhaustion, state–economy fusion, institutional distrust, and the digital turn. Does the 2026 election represent the culmination of this normalization?

Assoc. Prof. Ildiko Otova: Since 2001, Bulgaria has experienced several so-called waves of populism: the return of Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, the rise of GERB, and the emergence of post-2020, protest-driven, short-lived “pop-up” political projects. Taken together, these developments illustrate how what was once an episodic phenomenon has become a structural feature of the system. Paradoxically, the populist wave has itself become a constant.

Populism is now the defining characteristic of Bulgaria’s political order—the norm rather than the exception—making it unrealistic to expect fundamentally different outcomes. Radev fits squarely within this pattern: his victory represents not an unexpected populist surge, but the predictable result of a persistently populist political environment, shaped by the specific discursive situation I mentioned.

If this moment does represent a culmination, one might expect either a subsequent decline in populism or a reversion to pre-populist politics. However, such a scenario currently appears unlikely.

Radev has long combined anti-corruption, nationalist, and anti-establishment rhetoric from within one of the state’s highest institutions. Does his transition from the presidency to executive power illustrate the transformation of populism from protest discourse into governing logic?

Assoc. Prof. Ildiko Otova: This is the greatest challenge he faces. The presidency, even though he ultimately governed alone through caretaker governments and later during the pre-election period, gave him the opportunity to craft narratives. However, when one commands such a majority and holds executive power, concrete actions and policies are required.

We have had populists in power before—the GERB administration is one such example—but the dynamics were different. The coalition nature of those governments, especially the most recent one, created room to maneuver. Under Radev, there will be no such leeway. And that is the greatest challenge we face. Under these conditions, the path to autocracy becomes all too easy.

Limits of the Orbán Analogy

Editorial illustration: Rumen Radev and Viktor Orbán depicted against national flags, symbolizing political tensions between Bulgaria and Hungary. Photo: Dreamstime.

How should we assess the analogy between Radev and Orbán? Does Radev possess the ideological coherence and institutional ambition required for Orbán-style illiberal state-building, or is Bulgaria’s EU dependency likely to constrain him?

Assoc. Prof. Ildiko Otova: Let us begin with the obvious: Orbán is an experienced politician with a long, well-documented, and easily traceable career. Radev, by contrast, was effectively parachuted from the military into the presidency—a role he has never fully mastered. He entered politics without a solid ideological, political, or broader conceptual foundation, essentially as an empty vessel into which almost anything could be poured.

Another obvious point is that Bulgaria is not Hungary. Radev lacks ideological consistency and has no substantial political background or prior experience; he is, to a large extent, a product of the circumstances that enabled his rise—a product of the status quo, the absence of alternatives, and the prevailing populist momentum. Looking back, we also cannot entirely rule out the possibility that his ascent was shaped by external forces. What is beyond doubt, however, is the presence of clear ambition.

In this sense, the emergence of a non-liberal form of democracy in Bulgaria cannot be ruled out. The European Union, having learned from its experience with Hungary, is likely to be far more cautious. Against this backdrop, Radev’s first major test will be the so-called judicial reform.

Is Radev better understood as an Orbán-type system builder, a Fico-type pragmatic Eurosceptic, or a specifically Bulgarian figure shaped by Russophile memory, anti-corruption politics, and institutional volatility?

Assoc. Prof. Ildiko Otova: I do not think these comparisons meaningfully deepen our understanding of Radev or improve our ability to predict future developments. There are simply too many specific factors at play, and the international landscape is in constant flux. What existed elsewhere yesterday may not necessarily apply here tomorrow.

The Politics of Dual Discourse

Your research suggests that Bulgarian populism often blurs ideological distinctions. How should we classify Progressive Bulgaria: left-conservative, national-populist, technocratic-populist, or post-ideological?

Assoc. Prof. Ildiko Otova: Yes, populism undoubtedly blurs ideological distinctions; this is intrinsic to its nature. Consider Progressive Bulgaria’s program: despite the label “progressive,” its economic agenda is largely far right, even though some members of its expert economic team previously worked on more left-leaning projects. This example alone illustrates the extent to which ideological lines are being blurred.

For this reason, I see the party as best fitting within a post-ideological framework. Populism can be understood as a de-ideologized ideology. It incorporates elements from other ideologies, yet remains neither left nor right, and this is precisely one of the greatest dangers it poses—the de-ideologization, and consequently the depoliticization, of the political. Progressive Bulgaria, at least for now, aligns well with this understanding.

Does Radev’s discourse of “pragmatism” toward Russia and “critical thinking” toward Europe signal a strategic foreign policy stance, or does it reveal a more profound ontological insecurity in Bulgaria’s self-understanding as both a European and historically Russia-linked polity? How does identity anxiety translate into political legitimacy for such leaders?

Assoc. Prof. Ildiko Otova: I believe these statements by Radev are part of a broader strategy to tell each audience what it wants to hear. It is highly likely that he will continue to use one discourse in Bulgaria and another in Brussels. This is nothing new; Bulgarian politicians have long maintained such a dual discourse. In Radev’s case, however, it will be especially evident, likely conveyed through various spokespersons as well.

At the same time, Radev will have to speak not only to pro-Russian citizens at home. The EU still enjoys the support of more than half of Bulgarians, and some of those who backed Radev did so not because of his pro-Russian stance, but because of his anti-corruption declarations. He will have to meet their expectations with tangible actions, as narrative alone will no longer suffice.

Strategic Ambiguity Between Brussels and Moscow

Radev’s Ukraine stance appears to combine opposition to military aid with reluctance to openly block EU decisions. Is this strategic ambiguity a governing necessity, or a sign of deeper tension between his electorate’s geopolitical pluralism and his own Russophile instincts?

Assoc. Prof. Ildiko Otova: I cannot say whether Radev holds Russophile instincts. If he does, it would be rather ironic given his background in American military academies. Joking aside, there is a Russian saying: “We will live and we will see”—time will tell. However, I would assume that Radev will not openly oppose EU decisions.

To what extent did Radev absorb the political space of openly pro-Russian and nationalist parties such as Revival, and does this suggest moderation of the far right or mainstreaming of its core themes?

Assoc. Prof. Ildiko Otova: The myth of moderation is remarkably persistent, but I do not find it convincing. For years, analysts have claimed that once the far right gains power, it will be tamed. The opposite has happened: instead, far-right views have steadily become the norm. One need only look across the EU to observe this trend.

When it comes to Revival, Radev succeeded in attracting a significant portion of its electorate. As I have already noted, he now faces the difficult task of continuing to speak to multiple constituencies at once—and to do so convincingly through his actions. This will determine whether he fully absorbs the Revival electorate or, conversely, whether that electorate becomes further radicalized and shifts into opposition. I would not underestimate the leader of Revival, who is a seasoned political actor.

Given Bulgaria’s captured institutions, weak trust, and repeated anti-corruption mobilizations, can Radev realistically dismantle oligarchic networks, or does his concentration of power risk reproducing the same state-capture logic under a new banner?

Assoc. Prof. Ildiko Otova: This issue is extremely important. The resignation of the acting chief prosecutor, coming just days after Radev’s victory, was among the first signs of a new arrangement and already signals a realignment within oligarchic networks. I would also return to the question of how Radev’s seemingly expensive campaign was funded. Where did that money come from? Even these few points leave little room for optimism.

Radev’s regime is likely to reconstitute a state-capture model—perhaps initially in a more covert and less overtly assertive form—but such a configuration is unlikely to remain restrained over time.

From Anti-Elite Narrative to Elite Reality

Anti-government protests against corruption intensified across Sofia, Bulgaria on July 15, 2020. Photo: Dreamstime.

You have argued that anti-establishment populists in power may themselves become the new elite. How quickly might this paradox confront Radev once he assumes responsibility for inflation, eurozone adjustment, corruption reform, and EU funding?

Assoc. Prof. Ildiko Otova: Radev has long belonged to the elite. After all, he has been the sitting president for nearly nine years. His seemingly modest gestures—driving his own car, grumbling about the lack of parking spaces in Sofia, and publicly paying his parking tickets—are mostly for show, part of the narrative drafting.  

That said, I understand the core of the question. Given the international environment and the many urgent issues awaiting resolution, the risk that mounting challenges will overwhelm the new status quo is very real. Radev’s victory will ultimately need to be substantiated through concrete actions. Let us return to the notion of a “de-ideologized ideology” and the broader process of depoliticizing politics. How can genuinely sustainable policies be designed when they are no longer anchored in a clear and coherent vision?

My concern is that the emerging political reality is stripping politics of its very essence: not only the capacity to deliver immediate solutions, but also the obligation to develop policies grounded in a substantive vision of the world and its internal order. Returning to Radev, it is entirely possible that the failure of the new elite could trigger a fresh wave of protests. The key questions are whether such protests would be strong enough and, more importantly, what kind of new political configuration they might produce.

A new, powerful actor—a new master of the narrative who can and will succeed—will not emerge overnight. The possibility that, if Radev fails, Bulgaria could enter yet another cycle of instability cannot be ruled out. Even so, I am inclined to believe that Radev and those around him will, at least for a while, remain in power.

Diaspora Divides and the Limits of Democratic Agency

In your work on contestatory citizenship, you highlight the transformative potential of civic agency. In the current context, can civic mobilization and diaspora engagement mitigate what appears to be an emerging crisis of democratic and European identity, or are these forms of participation themselves being reshaped by populist narratives of belonging and exclusion?

Assoc. Prof. Ildiko Otova: Let me begin by noting that the diaspora is not necessarily pro-European—quite the contrary. While some are pro-European, others are anti-European, including Bulgarian emigrants in other EU member states. I continue to believe in the power of contestatory citizenship. However, as I have already noted, the key question is what exactly a new wave of protests might bring about.

Looking ahead, do you expect Radev’s Bulgaria to become a pragmatic EU-anchored government with Russophile rhetoric, a soft illiberal regime inside the EU, or an unstable populist experiment likely to fracture under the burdens of governance?

Assoc. Prof. Ildiko Otova: I do not think these three options are mutually exclusive.

Jordan Bardella and Princess Maria Carolina of Bourbon-Two Sicilies captured in a staged, paparazzi-style moment—where romance, image, and political branding converge on the cover of Paris Match.

‘Ugly, Badly Groomed, and Bitter’: Gendered Delegitimation and Aesthetic Politics 

In this incisive analysis, Dr. Gwenaëlle Bauvois interrogates how contemporary far-right discourse mobilizes gendered and aesthetic hierarchies to structure political legitimacy. Focusing on the controversy surrounding Rassemblement National (RN) leader Jordan Bardella’s relationship with Princess Maria Carolina of Bourbon-Two Sicilies, Dr. Bauvois demonstrates how misogynistic rhetoric operates through a dual mechanism of delegitimation and idealization. The stigmatized figure of the female sociologist—constructed as intellectually suspect and aesthetically deficient—is juxtaposed with the idealized “princess” archetype, embodying socially sanctioned femininity. This contrast reveals how populist communication instrumentalizes gendered imagery, transforming private relationships into symbolic resources that reinforce political narratives, hierarchies of visibility, and claims to cultural legitimacy.

 

By Gwenaëlle Bauvois

Controversy Around a Romance 

The relationship between Jordan Bardella, president of the National Rally / Rassemblement National (RN), and Princess Maria Carolina of Bourbon-Two Sicilies has recently attracted significant media attention in France and abroad, particularly after their romance was featured on the cover of a gossip magazine and circulated widely across both political and lifestyle media outlets. 

During a televised exchange on this subject, Sébastien Chenu, a leading figure of the Rassemblement National, stated: “I am delighted that [Bardella] is in love, I am delighted that his partner, who could possibly become First Lady, is a young lady who speaks six languages.” Interpelled by the journalist who noted that Maria Carolina is a “luxury influencer,” he responded: “Why not!” He then added: “Not everyone is destined to be a sociology lecturer,” “ugly, badly groomed, and bitter,” (Chenu, n.d.).

Chenu’s remarks triggered significant backlash across political, media, and academic circles.As a national spokesperson for the Rassemblement National, Chenu is already recognized for his provocative communication style, which was especially apparent in this instance. The French National Union of Researchers, for instance, stated that these comments reflect the Rassemblement National’s anti-feminist positioning, which regularly targets women’s rights and reproduces outdated gender stereotypes. 

The Sociologist: Failed Femininity

At the center of Chenu’s remark lies the figure of the Sociologist, a familiar symbolic target in far-right discourse. In France, sociology occupies a particularly visible position within broader “culture wars” dynamics, where academic disciplines become entangled in political and ideological conflicts over questions of identity, inequality, and gender. Within this context, sociology is often framed by some right-wing and far-right political actors as emblematic of a politicized or ideologically biased academia. 

Crucially, however, the figure used by Chenu is here implicitly gendered: it is not a neutral academic subject that is evoked, but specifically the female sociology lecturer, whose presence is central to the rhetorical effect of the statement rather than incidental to it. The emphasis on a woman in an academic position is significant because it enables the statement to operate simultaneously through professional and gendered delegitimation, thereby amplifying its symbolic effect. 

This framing reflects three intersecting discursive logics. First, populist anti-intellectualism constructs experts and academics, more often in social science, as ideologically driven rather than legitimate producers of knowledge. Second, it specifically frames female academics as socially deviant and suspect. Third, misogynistic aesthetic stereotyping delegitimizes women through appearance and affect, casting them as Chenu describes as “ugly” and “bitter.” Together, these patterns construct the figure of the female social sciences academic as a rhetorically productive figure within far-right discourse, whose authority is simultaneously undermined along epistemic, social, and gendered lines. 

Female academics and public intellectuals are disproportionately targeted through appearance-based insults and narratives of emotional instability, particularly when they are associated with feminist or progressive positions. Within this frame, the figure of the female sociology lecturer mobilized by Chenu is used as an instance of failed femininity, insofar as she is represented as failing to conform to normative expectations of feminine appearance, emotional disposition, respectability and desirability. 

The Princess: Worthy Femininity

In contrast to the representation of the female sociologist as ugly and bitter, Maria Carolina of Bourbon-Two Sicilies is implicitly constructed through a combination of aristocratic lineage and conventional markers of attractiveness—youth, blonde hair, and normative beauty—alongside her prestige and glamour. The opposition between these stereotypes reflects two radically different regimes of femininity within far-right populist discourse, structured around processes of delegitimation and idealization.  

Within this configuration, the figure of the Princess does not merely function as an aesthetic ideal, but also as a form of symbolic validation. It produces a culturally legible ideal of femininity in which aesthetic conformity and social status reinforce one another. It illustrates how visibility and worth are distributed unevenly, rendering certain bodies desirable and socially legitimate, while others are marked as deviant or unworthy —an opposition explicitly echoed in Chenu’s references to ugliness and bodily neglect. 

More than a static ideal, the Princess figure operates as a normative reference point for acceptable and desirable femininity, where beauty, refinement, and social legitimacy are tightly aligned. Taken together, these contrasting constructions of femininity serve a broader populist logic of image-making, in which gendered archetypes are mobilized to organize hierarchies of legitimacy, visibility, and credibility. In this sense, the Princess archetype embodies the “right” kind of femininity and womanhood within this symbolic economy—one that is aesthetically intelligible, socially valorized, and politically functional. 

The Princess figure also works particularly well in the context of Bardella’s electoral positioning ahead of the 2027 presidential race, especially given the timing and circulation of the orchestrated, paparazzi-style photographs of the couple. The Princess figure is highly media-friendly and easily integrated into simplified narrative formats, including “fairy-tale” framings that translate personal relationships into emotionally resonant political stories. In this sense, rather than functioning as a private individual, the Princess operates as a branding resource.

The Populist Leader and the Princess: Romance as Political Resource?

This romance between the young, ambitious populist leader of the French far right and the glamorous jet-setter princess can indeed be seen as part of a wider strategy of political communication and personal branding, contributing to the construction of Bardella’s profile as a prospective presidential candidate.

It also reinforces a narrative of upward social mobility, in which Bardella’s self-presentation as emerging from a modest, working-class background is juxtaposed with his growing proximity to aristocratic lineage and inherited forms of cultural and social capital. 

However, this construction is also potentially ambivalent. Bardella has long cultivated an image as a politician who speaks for ordinary people against the elites, a figure of social ascent from below. Yet his relationship with a luxury influencer, jetsetter and heir to a fortune worth several hundred million euros—risks complicating that populist narrative of proximity to these “ordinary people” he claims to represent.

References

Chenu, S. [@sebchenu]. (n.d.). “Je suis ravi de voir @J_Bardella amoureux et que tous les deux soient épanouis ! N’en déplaise à certains, tout le monde n’a pas vocation à finir comme une prof de sociologie à Nanterre, moche, mal coiffée et aigrie ! @franceinfo” [Post]. X. https://x.com/sebchenu/status/2045028471185821837

La Provence. (2026, April 17). “Une prof à Nanterre, moche et aigrie” : Chenu défend la vie amoureuse de Bardella et s’attire les foudres de la gauche. https://www.laprovence.com/article/politique/1346683888928215/une-prof-a-nanterre-moche-et-aigrie-chenu-defend-la-vie-amoureuse-de-bardella-et-sattire-les-foudres-de-la-gauche

Caulcutt, Clea. (2026, April 9). “Jordan Bardella: France romance with Italian royal heiress goes public.” Politico. https://www.politico.eu/article/jordan-bardella-france-romance-italian-royal-heiress-goes-public/

SNCS-FSU. (2026, April 20). “Le SNCS-FSU dénonce les propos diffamatoires et misogynes de Sébastien Chenu.”https://sncs.fr/2026/04/21/le-sncs-fsu-denonce-les-propos-diffamatoires-et-misogynes-de-sebastien-chenu/

Disposal site in Lagos.

From Waste to Political Weapon: Informal Recycling and Survivalist Populism in Urban Nigeria

Urban waste governance in Nigeria reveals a critical yet overlooked nexus between environmental management, informality, and political legitimacy. This policy brief introduces the concept of survivalist populism to capture how structural exclusion within the informal waste economy generates distinct political subjectivities rooted in precarity, distrust, and disengagement. Despite underpinning material recovery and urban sustainability, informal waste workers remain marginalized, stigmatized, and criminalized—exposing a contradiction at the heart of state governance. The analysis demonstrates that exclusionary environmental regimes not only produce inefficiencies but also erode democratic legitimacy and risk fostering grievance-driven political mobilization. By advocating inclusive, circular governance frameworks, the brief positions environmental policy as a key site for democratic renewal, social inclusion, and the mitigation of emerging populist discontent.

By Dr. Oludele Solaja*

Policy Problem

In Nigeria, urban waste governance has remained an under-researched domain where the intersection of political contention, social marginalization, and emerging populist subjectivities can be observed. It is estimated that more than 32 million tons of solid waste are produced annually across the country, with approximately 13,000–15,000 tons generated daily by metropolitan Lagos alone, of which less than 40% is managed by formal waste collection systems (World Bank, 2020). This structural deficit has given rise to a vast informal waste sector, including scavengers, mobile waste traders, and community-based collectors, who constitute the backbone of material recovery systems—particularly for plastics and metals—thereby contributing to urban environmental sustainability.

Despite their indispensability for material recovery, the sector remains largely institutionally marginalized, socially stigmatized, and increasingly criminalized. This apparent contradiction—the necessity of these informal actors for material recovery alongside their political exclusion—points to a broader challenge in environmental governance at the nexus of urban informality and state legitimacy. Building on an urban political sociology perspective, alongside environmental governance scholarship, this policy brief argues that waste governance in Nigeria is fundamentally an issue of political legitimacy and citizenship at the urban level (Migdal, 2001; Davis, 2006).

Survivalist Populism and Urban Exclusion

This policy brief proposes the term survivalist populism to capture the emergence of political consciousness driven by structural exclusion in the informal economy. Survivalist populism describes a political orientation shaped by a lack of material security, institutional exclusion, and the daily struggle for urban survival. Distinct from programmatically oriented ideological populism and electorally driven populism, survivalist populism is affective, experience-driven, and rooted in the everyday conditions of survival.

In the informal waste economy, this type of political consciousness typically manifests through: (1) deep and entrenched distrust in state institutions; (2) narratives of neglect and exclusion; and (3) pragmatic avoidance of formal politics. This orientation signals a weakening of state legitimacy, as governance is often perceived as coercive rather than as a mechanism for welfare delivery. 

As Norris and Inglehart (2019) argue, such dynamics often reflect a sustained political backlash rooted in prolonged social insecurity and inequality affecting marginalized populations. Phrases such as “we are unseen by government,” commonly used by actors in the informal waste sector, convey a sense of injustice and represent a redefinition of political identity beyond formal politics. This aligns with studies of informality demonstrating how marginalized groups often construct their own systems of governance in the absence of adequate state engagement (Hart, 1973; Migdal, 2001).

Informality, Labor and Urban Survival

Nigeria’s informal waste sector provides employment for millions and is a cornerstone of the wider informal economy, which supports more than 60 percent of national employment. The sector comprises a diverse group of predominantly young, often vulnerable and economically deprived individuals excluded from the formal economy. Their employment conditions are characterized by extreme income volatility, with earnings frequently falling below minimum wage benchmarks. At the same time, work is marked by precarious health and safety conditions, as it is typically carried out without personal protective equipment and often involves encounters with state agents, leading to harassment, evictions, and displacement.

Paradoxically, these informal workers are integral to urban environmental governance processes, recovering well over 50 percent of plastics across several Nigerian cities, reducing pressure on landfills, and supporting local manufacturing value chains. This situation exemplifies what Davis (2006) describes as the “structural indispensability of the urban poor within systems that simultaneously exclude them,” reflecting a persistent, state-induced failure to integrate informal labor, even as it continues to be tolerated and relied upon.

Governance Failures and Democratic Risks

The systemic exclusion of informal waste workers results in significant governance and democratic risks. 

First, it reinforces the state’s dominant reliance on punitive, rather than inclusive, approaches to environmental governance by criminalizing participation in the sector. Informal waste picking is often banned or tightly regulated at the state level without providing viable livelihood alternatives. 

Second, enforcement-led approaches to environmental regulation erode state legitimacy, as interventions are primarily experienced as coercive rather than enabling, particularly among excluded groups (Migdal, 2001). 

Third, there are emerging signs of the political instrumentalization of exclusion and grievance, whereby marginalized groups are invoked in electoral rhetoric but excluded from substantive policymaking—a pattern that may transform social and environmental exclusion into a tool for political leverage. 

Finally, these dynamics generate environmental inefficiencies, as the marginalization of recyclers weakens waste sorting and recovery systems, thereby increasing pressure on landfills. Collectively, these processes risk fostering long-term political disillusionment and undermining stability in urban governance.

Policy Recommendations: Toward Inclusive Circular Governance

Achieving effective environmental governance requires a critical shift toward inclusive, circular economy frameworks that recognize informal labor as essential to urban environmental sustainability.

Formal Integration and Recognition: Relevant environmental agencies at both state and national levels should take measures to formally recognize and register workers in the informal waste economy and ensure their inclusion in urban waste management systems through collaborative arrangements and partnerships among the state, the formal sector, and informal waste actors.

Circular Economy Integration: Circular economy strategies at both subnational and national levels must clearly identify and define informal waste workers as central participants in sustainable waste management, with targeted incentive packages to support small recycling enterprises and strengthen informal material recovery value chains.

Social Protection Measures: Support for these workers should be complemented by a targeted system of social protection that provides access to essential services such as microcredit and health insurance, as well as structured livelihood development and transition support programs.

Participatory Governance Structures: Urban waste management authorities should develop and operationalize structured participatory mechanisms that provide informal waste workers with a platform for engagement and a voice in decision-making processes affecting their livelihoods and the environment.

Narrative Reframing and Public Recognition: The persistent social stigmatization of informal waste workers should be actively challenged through reframing their roles as valuable contributors to urban environmental sustainability, rather than as nuisances within the cityscape, by both state institutions and the media.

Policy Implications for Europe and the Global South

The findings from Nigeria’s informal waste sector offer important lessons for European policymakers transitioning toward a circular economy, as well as for cities in the Global South undergoing rapid urbanization, where informality remains integral to urban service provision, but policy responses often oscillate between marginalization and criminalization. In Nigeria, neglecting informal environmental actors not only undermines the efficiency of environmental systems but can also lead to significant political consequences, including alienation, disengagement, and the emergence of populist responses.

This case underscores for European actors—particularly in contexts of increasing migration, urban informalization, and the shift toward circular economy models—the imperative of designing inclusive governance mechanisms that integrate vulnerable labor into formal systems rather than pushing it to the margins. More broadly, the findings highlight the need to conceptualize environmental governance as a tool of social inclusion and political consolidation, not merely technical efficiency. Failure to implement such reforms is likely to deepen urban political disaffection and accelerate the rise of grievance-driven populist mobilization.

Conclusion

The crisis of waste management in Nigeria is a manifestation of the structural tension between environmental governance and democratic inclusion. The persistence of exclusionary waste regimes reinforces a survivalist populist orientation grounded in precarity and institutional marginality, which may contribute to political instability. Conversely, the inclusion of marginalized informal waste collectors in formal policymaking processes offers mutually beneficial outcomes in terms of environmental efficiency and democratic legitimacy, thereby repositioning waste governance beyond a purely environmental imperative toward a nexus for inclusive urban democracy.


 

(*) Dr. Oludele Solaja is a faculty member in the Department of Sociology, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria and Nonresident Research Fellow at the ECPS. 


 

References 

Davis, M. (2006). Planet of slums. Verso. London

Hart, K. (1973). “Informal income opportunities and urban employment in Ghana.” The Journal of Modern African Studies, 11(1), 61–89. 

Migdal, J. S. (2001). State in society: Studying how states and societies transform and constitute one another. Cambridge University Press. 

Mudde, C. (2004). “The populist zeitgeist.” Government and Opposition, 39(4), 541–563. 

Norris, P., & Inglehart, R. (2019). Cultural backlash: Trump, Brexit, and authoritarian populism. Cambridge University Press. 

World Bank. (2020). Nigeria: Enhancing solid waste management for sustainable urban development.

Iran & US.

The Ongoing War Between Iran, the US, and Israel: A Brief Analytical Assessment

This commentary by Professor Majid Bozorgmehri situates the 2026 confrontation within a broader matrix of regional rivalry, nuclear deterrence, and asymmetric warfare. He argues that the conflict reflects not an isolated escalation but the deepening of a long-standing security dilemma, driven by both material power asymmetries and ideational forces. Drawing on a synthesis of realism and constructivism, Professor Bozorgmehri demonstrates how strategic calculation, identity, and normative commitments interact in shaping state behavior. As the war expands across multiple domains—from proxy networks to maritime chokepoints—it highlights the limits of conventional military superiority and points toward a likely trajectory of managed escalation, coercive diplomacy, and negotiated equilibrium.

By Majid Bozorgmehri*

The ongoing war involving Iran, the United States, and Israel in 2026 can be interpreted as a complex interstate conflict situated within a broader matrix of regional rivalry, nuclear deterrence concerns, and asymmetric warfare dynamics. Rather than constituting an isolated confrontation, the war reflects an intensification of long-standing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, generating wide-ranging humanitarian, economic, infrastructural, political, and environmental consequences. For Iran, which has already experienced prolonged exposure to international sanctions, economic stagnation, and domestic socio-political pressures, the war has exacerbated existing structural vulnerabilities while introducing new dimensions of humanitarian strain and systemic instability (Akhigbodemhe & Azubuike, 2025: 300). At the same time, this confrontation appears to be entering a qualitatively new phase with the potential to reshape the regional geopolitical order (Alobeid, 2025: 8).

From the standpoint of international relations theory, and particularly within the framework of structural realism, the conflict can be conceptualized as a manifestation of the security dilemma, whereby defensive measures undertaken by one actor are interpreted as offensive threats by others, thereby producing a self-reinforcing cycle of escalation (Waltz, 1979; Jervis, 1978; Baltaci, 2022: 2241). However, a single theoretical lens is insufficient to fully explain the dynamics of this war. A more comprehensive analytical framework emerges from the integration of realism and constructivism, as proposed in the concept of “realist constructivism” (Barkin, 2003: 338). Within this hybrid framework, the policies of the United States and Israel can be interpreted primarily through realist assumptions emphasizing power, security, and strategic calculation, whereas Iran’s behavior reflects a stronger influence of ideational factors, including identity, revolutionary ideology, and normative commitments. This theoretical synthesis enables a more nuanced understanding of how material power and normative structures interact in shaping state behavior.

Historically, the strategic rivalry between Israel and Iran has evolved over several decades, particularly since the late 1990s, into a multidimensional confrontation encompassing direct and indirect forms of conflict. Iran has consistently supported a network of non-state actors positioned along Israel’s periphery, while Israel has responded through a combination of military deterrence, intelligence operations, and targeted strikes aimed at constraining Iran’s regional influence (Dryden, 2023: 84; Tanios, 2020). The escalation observed in 2026, including coordinated military actions by the United States and Israel against Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure, represents the culmination of these long-term antagonisms. Such actions have been interpreted by analysts as preventive or preemptive strategies designed to limit Iran’s nuclear capabilities and weaken its deterrence posture.

The military balance within this conflict is characterized by a pronounced asymmetry. The United States and Israel possess significant advantages in terms of conventional military capabilities, including advanced airpower, intelligence systems, and precision-strike technologies. In contrast, Iran has developed an asymmetric warfare doctrine intended to mitigate these disadvantages. This doctrine relies on ballistic missile systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, and decentralized proxy networks capable of operating across multiple theaters (Cordesman, 2007). Furthermore, Israel has intensified its military activities in Syria and expanded covert security cooperation with several Arab states, particularly in response to perceived Iranian entrenchment in the region (Furlan, 2022: 178). Consequently, the conflict cannot be reduced to a simple balance-of-power equation but should instead be understood as a confrontation between divergent strategic paradigms.

The persistence of Iran’s retaliatory capabilities despite sustained military pressure underscores a central finding in strategic studies: the superiority of conventional force does not necessarily guarantee decisive political outcomes when confronting a resilient and adaptive adversary (Arreguín-Toft, 2005). In this regard, the conflict demonstrates key features of hybrid warfare, combining direct interstate confrontation with proxy engagements, cyber operations, and economic coercion. Iranian-aligned groups operating across the Middle East and extending in some cases toward the Red Sea and parts of Eastern Africa, have contributed to broadening the geographical scope of the conflict (Bazoobandi & Talebian, 2023). This expansion complicates the strategic environment for both the United States and Israel, increasing the likelihood of miscalculation and unintended escalation (Byman, 2018).

One of the most critical dimensions of this escalation concerns maritime security, particularly in relation to the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth (20.9 %) of global oil supply transits (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2026). Any disruption in this chokepoint would have profound implications for the global economy, potentially triggering inflationary shocks, financial instability, and broader systemic risks (World Bank, 2025: 81–82). Additionally, the strategic positioning of external powers such as Russia and China suggests that their policies toward the conflict are likely to be shaped by broader geopolitical calculations, which may not fully align with Iranian expectations (Rasanah, 2024: 4).

Despite the scale and intensity of military operations, several structural constraints limit the likelihood of a decisive outcome. Iran’s territorial size, population base, and institutional resilience render the prospect of externally imposed regime change highly uncertain without large-scale ground operations. Historical precedents, including the interventions in Iraq and Libya, have demonstrated the risks associated with state collapse and regional fragmentation. In the Iranian context, such a scenario could invite intervention by neighboring powers—including Turkey, Pakistan, and Gulf states—while also potentially intensifying subnational movements, such as Kurdish aspirations for autonomy or independence. These risks significantly raise the potential costs of escalation for external actors.

At the same time, the United States faces considerable constraints related to resource allocation, domestic political considerations, and strategic prioritization, all of which reduce its willingness to engage in a prolonged and large-scale military campaign. Israel, despite its advanced military capabilities, remains constrained by its limited strategic depth and exposure to missile and drone attacks. These factors collectively suggest that the conflict is unlikely to culminate in a decisive military victory and is instead evolving toward a phase characterized by coercive diplomacy and strategic bargaining.

Recent developments in the diplomatic arena reinforce this interpretation. Indirect negotiations, temporary ceasefire arrangements, and discussions concerning limitations on Iran’s nuclear program indicate a gradual shift toward a mixed strategy that combines military pressure with diplomatic engagement (International Crisis Group, 2026). From a theoretical perspective, this transition is consistent with game-theoretic models in which rational actors seek to optimize outcomes under conditions of uncertainty while avoiding mutually destructive escalation.

A scenario-based assessment of the conflict suggests that the most probable outcome, with an estimated likelihood of approximately 45–55 percent, is a negotiated settlement involving partial de-escalation, limited restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities, and some degree of sanctions relief. A second scenario, with a probability of approximately 25–30 percent, envisions the continuation of a low-intensity conflict characterized by intermittent military engagements and persistent proxy activity. Less probable scenarios include broader regional escalation (10–15 percent) and internal regime collapse in Iran (5–10 percent), the latter being constrained by the resilience of existing political and security structures.

Overall, the available evidence indicates that the conflict is unlikely to produce a decisive military resolution. Instead, it is more likely to evolve into a managed confrontation or a negotiated equilibrium shaped by structural constraints, strategic interdependence, and the limits of military power. Within this context, some analysts argue that the survival of a contained but adversarial Iranian posture may serve the strategic interests of the United States and its regional allies by reinforcing security dependencies among Persian Gulf states and facilitating incremental normalization between Israel and certain Arab countries. While this interpretation remains subject to debate, it highlights the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict and its potential to reshape regional alignments over the long term.


 

(*) Majid Bozorgmehri is a Professor at Imam Khomeini International University, Iran, and a Visiting Scholar at York University, Toronto, Canada.


 

References

Akhigbodemhe, E.J. & Azubuike, G.I. (2025). “A 12-day war with long-term collateral consequences: A multi-dimensional analysis of the Israel-Iran war.” IJPSG 2025; 7(9): 300-309, E-ISSN: 2664-603X DOI: https://www.doi.org/10.33545/26646021.2025.v7.i9d.694

Alobeid, A. (2025) “The Israeli Strikes on Iranian Targets and Its Geopolitical Repercussions.” Center of Strategic Studies:1-41:8 June 2025, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/393122276_ISRAEL_IRAN_WAR_AND_ITS_GLOBAL_IMPLICATIONS

Arreguín-T. I.  (2005). How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict. Cambridge University Press. https://archive.org/details/howweakwinwarsth0000arre/page/n9/mode/2up

Baltacı, A. (2022). “Iran Israel Conflict: An Overview of The Situation After the Iran Islamic Revolution from The Framework of Security Theories.” International Social Sciences Studies Journal, (e-ISSN:2587- 1587) Vol:8, Issue:100; pp:2239-2245. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/362270158_Iran_Israel_Conflict_An_Overview_of_the_Situation_after_the_Iran_Islamic_Revolution_from_the_Framework_of_Security_Theories

Barkin, J. S. (2003, Sep.) “Realist Constructivism.” International Studies Review, Vol. 5, No. 3, Wiley on behalf of The International Studies Association: 325-342. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3186573

Bazoobandi, S. & Talebian, H. (2023). “The Evolvement of Iran–Israel’s Rivalry in the Red Sea and Eastern Africa,” Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies,
17:4, 341-355. DOI: 10.1080/25765949.2023.2299076, https://doi.org/10.1080/25765949.2023.2299076

Byman, D. L. (2018, Jan.03). “Iran’s foreign policy weaknesses, and opportunities to exploit them.” https://www.brookings.edu/articles/irans-foreign-policy-weaknesses-and-opportunities-to-exploit-them/

Campa, K.; Rezaei, B.; Moorman ,C.; Wells, K.; Morrison N.; Grace M. & Annika G. (2026). “Iran Update Special Report, March 27, 2026. “ Analyst Notes: Data Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET, The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and The Critical Threats Project (CTP),

Cordesman, A. H. & Kleiber, M. (2007, January). “Iran’s Military Forces and Warfighting Capabilities: The Threat in the Northern Gulf.” DOI: 10.5040/9798400672521 ISBN: 9780313346125 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/381088434_Iran’s_Military_Forces_and_Warfighting_Capabilities_The_Threat_in_the_Northern_Gulf

DryDen, J. (2023, Spring). “IRAN, ISRAEL, AND THE STRUGGLE FOR THE SKIES OVER THE MIDDLE EAST” ÆTHER: A JOURNAL OF STRATEGIC AIRPOWER & SPACEPOWER, VOL. 2, NO. 1, :84-95

Furlan, M. (2022). “Israeli Iranian relations: past friendship, current hostility.” Israel Affairs, 28:2, 170-183, DOI: 10.1080/13537121.2022.2041304 https://doi.org/10.1080/13537121.2022.2041304

International Crisis Group (2026). “With a Fragile Ceasefire under Threat, What Future for the Strait of Hormuz?”https://www.crisisgroup.org/qna/global/iran-israelpalestine-united-states/fragile-ceasefire-under-threat-what-future-strait-hormuz

Jervis, R. (1978) “Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma.” World Politics, Vol. 30, No. 2 (Jan., 1978), pp. 167-214, The Johns Hopkins University. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2009958

Rasanah.  (2024). “IRAN, ISRAEL, AND STRATEGIC CHOICES: NAVIGATING A NEW ERA OF CONFLICT.” International Institute for Iranian Studies. October 29, 2024,  www.Rasanah.iiis.org :1-7, https://rasanah-iiis.org/english/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2024/10/Iran-Israel-and-Strategic-Choices-Navigating-a-New-Era-of-Conflict.pdf

Tanios,  S. (2020, January). “Iran, Israel, the Persian Gulf, and the United States: A Conflict Resolution Perspective.” https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352546074_Iran_Israel_the_Persian_Gulf_and_the_United_States_A_Conflict_Resolution_Perspective

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2026). “World Oil Transit Chokepoints.” March 3, 202 https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints

Waltz, K. (1979). Theory of international politics. McGraw-Hill., Addison-Wesly Publishing Company. ISBN : J-201-08349-3 https://www.academia.edu/28686609/_WALTZ_KENNETH_Theory_of_International_Politics

World Bank Group. (2025, June). “Global Economic Prospect.” International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.Doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-2193-6).025  https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099108406102514189/pdf/IDU-b105e4ed-305f-421f-aa25-861e41a4ab44.pdf

Participants of the ECPS Conference 2025 at St Cross College, University of Oxford, gather for a group photo on July 1, 2025.

Collection of the 28-Session ECPS Workshop Series: ‘We, the People’ and the Future of Democracy: Interdisciplinary Approaches

This collection assembles the reports and full video recordings of the 28-session ECPS Workshop Series, integrating the Oxford in-person programme (July 1–3, 2025) with its extended virtual continuation (September 2025–April 2026). Together, these sessions offer a sustained interdisciplinary inquiry into the political and normative complexities of invoking “the people” in contemporary democratic life, with populism as a central analytical lens. Across diverse cases and theoretical perspectives, the series examines how populism both reflects democratic grievances and actively reshapes institutional and symbolic orders. By tracing themes such as representation, identity, legitimacy, and technological transformation, the collection provides a comparative and analytically rigorous account of democracy under strain, while highlighting the conditions under which democratic resilience may still emerge.

Compiled by ECPS Staff

This collection brings together the reports and full video recordings of the sixteen-session ECPS Virtual Workshop Series, “We, the People” and the Future of Democracy: Interdisciplinary Approaches, convened between September 4, 2025 and April 16, 2026. The series constitutes a direct continuation and intellectual expansion of the three-day, eight-session in-person programme held at St. Cross College, University of Oxford, on July 1–3, 2025. Together, these interconnected formats form a sustained scholarly intervention into one of the defining political questions of our time: the meaning, mobilization, and consequences of invoking “the people” in contemporary democratic life.

The Oxford gathering established the conceptual and normative foundations of this inquiry. Set against the sobering reality that between 2012 and 2024 one-fifth of the world’s democracies disappeared, participants explored how populist discourse—often structured through stark “us versus them” binaries—has reshaped political competition, eroded institutional trust, and strained the pluralistic fabric of liberal democracies. At the same time, the discussions underscored that democracy’s trajectory is neither uniformly declining nor predetermined. Across contexts, democratic resilience continues to emerge, often through the same contested language of “the people” that fuels its erosion.

The subsequent virtual programme extended this dialogue across sixteen bi-weekly sessions, enabling a broader, more sustained, and globally inclusive exchange. Bringing together scholars from political science, law, sociology, history, philosophy, and the arts, the series examined how “the people” is constructed, institutionalized, and contested across diverse political and cultural settings. From populist authoritarianism and crises of representation to religion, identity, digital transformation, and decolonial perspectives, the sessions traced the multiple trajectories through which populism operates—as both a symptom of democratic strain and a force capable of reshaping democratic norms and institutions.

A central thread running throughout the series is the dual character of “the people” as both a normative ideal and a political instrument. While it can serve as a basis for democratic inclusion, participation, and renewal, it can equally function as a mechanism of exclusion, homogenization, and majoritarian domination. Understanding the conditions under which these divergent outcomes unfold requires precisely the kind of interdisciplinary and comparative engagement that this programme has sought to cultivate.

By presenting the reports alongside the full recordings, this collection invites readers and viewers to revisit, engage with, and critically reflect upon the rich discussions that unfolded over the course of both the Oxford conference and its virtual continuation. In doing so, it offers not closure, but an ongoing invitation to interrogate the evolving relationship between populism, representation, and the future of democracy in the twenty-first century.

 

Click Here to Explore the Reports and Video Recordings of the 12-Session In-Person Workshop at Oxford University

 

Reports and Video Recordings of the 16-Session Virtual Workshop Series 

Session 1: The Rise of Populist Authoritarianism around the World

The ECPS, in collaboration with Oxford University, launched its Virtual Workshop Series on “The Rise of Populist Authoritarianism around the World” on September 4, 2025. Spanning 16 sessions through April 2026, the series examines how populist strategies reshape democracy across diverse contexts. Chaired by Professor Oscar Mazzoleni, the opening session featured Professor David Sanders’ keynote on six structural drivers fueling populism and its growing threats to liberal democracy. Case studies explored populist dynamics in the US, India, Greece, Thailand, and Argentina, highlighting intersections of dynasties, corporate power, elite cues, and economic crises. Discussant Dr. João Ferreira Dias emphasized three takeaways: populism as performance, polarization over persuasion, and the enduring impact of national political cultures.

Session 2: The ‘Nation’ or Just an ‘Accidental Society’: Identity, Polarization, Rule of Law and Human Rights in 1989–2025 Poland

On September 18, 2025, ECPS held the second session of the Virtual Workshop Series — “We, the People” and the Future of Democracy. Chaired by Professor Mavis Maclean (Oxford), the panel examined Poland’s democratic trajectory through themes of patriotism, constitutional conflict, human rights, and representation. Highlights included Professor Joanna Kurczewska’s call to recover Solidarity’s inclusive legacy, Dr. Kamil Joński’s analysis of Poland’s constitutional “quagmire,” Professor Małgorzata Fuszara’s exploration of contested women’s and minority rights, and Professor Jacek Kurczewski’s reframing of judicial representation. Discussants added comparative and moral-philosophical perspectives. The session concluded that Poland’s experience reflects global struggles: reclaiming inclusive traditions, defending institutions, and embedding rights remain vital for democratic renewal.

Session 3: Populism, Freedom of Religion and Illiberal Regimes

On October 2, 2025, the ECPS, in collaboration with Oxford University, held the third session of its Virtual Workshop Series, “We, the People” and the Future of Democracy: Interdisciplinary Approaches. Chaired by Dr. Marietta D.C. van der Tol, the session examined how populist and illiberal actors across Hungary, Slovakia, and the United States instrumentalize the language of religious freedom to consolidate power and reshape national identity. Presentations by Dr. Marc Loustau, Dr. Juraj Buzalka, and Rev. Dr. Colin Bossen, followed by reflections from Dr. Simon P. Watmough and Dr. Erkan Toguslu, revealed how religion, once central to pluralism, is increasingly politicized as a weapon in culture wars and transnational illiberal strategies.

Session 4: Performing the People — Populism, Nativism, and the Politics of Belonging

On October 16, 2025, the ECPS held the fourth session of its Virtual Workshop Series “We, the People” and the Future of Democracy: Interdisciplinary Approaches.” The session examined how political actors construct and mobilize “the people” to legitimize both inclusive and exclusionary political projects. Chaired by Professor Oscar Mazzoleni, the session featured presentations by Samuel Ngozi Agu, Shiveshwar Kundu, and Mouli Bentman & Michael Dahan, each exploring different regional and theoretical perspectives. Abdelaaziz El Bakkali and Azize Sargın provided incisive discussant feedback, followed by a lively Q&A. Concluding reflections by Prof. Mazzoleni emphasized populism’s dual nature as both a political strategy and a symptom of structural democratic crises, setting the stage for future interdisciplinary debate.

Session 5: Constructing the People — Populist Narratives, National Identity, and Democratic Tensions

Session 5 of the ECPS–Oxford Virtual Workshop Series examined how populist movements across different regions construct “the people” as both an inclusive democratic ideal and an exclusionary political weapon. Moderated by Dr. Heidi Hart, the session featured presentations by Dr. Amir Ali, Dr. Yazdan Keikhosrou Doulatyari, and Andrei Gheorghe, who analyzed populism’s intersections with austerity politics, linguistic identity, and post-communist nationalism. Their comparative insights revealed that populism redefines belonging through economic moralization, linguistic appropriation, and historical myth-making, transforming pluralist notions of democracy into performative narratives of unity and control. The ensuing discussion emphasized populism’s adaptive power to manipulate emotion, memory, and discourse across diverse democratic contexts.

Session 6: Populism and the Crisis of Representation –Reimagining Democracy in Theory and Practice

On November 13, 2025, the ECPS, in collaboration with Oxford University, held the sixth session of its Virtual Workshop Series, “We, the People” and the Future of Democracy: Interdisciplinary Approaches. Under the skillful moderation of Professor Ilhan Kaya (Wilfrid Laurier University, Canada), the session featured Dr. Jonathan Madison, Dr. João Mauro Gomes Vieira de Carvalho, and Associate Professor Andreea Zamfira, who examined how populism both mirrors and magnifies democracy’s crisis of representation. Their analyses, complemented by insightful discussant interventions from Dr. Amir Ali and Dr. Amedeo Varriale, generated a vibrant dialogue on institutional resilience, digital disruption, and the reconfiguration of democratic legitimacy in an age of populist contention.

Session 7: Rethinking Representation in an Age of Populism

Session 7 of the ECPS Virtual Workshop Series offered a compelling interdisciplinary examination of how contemporary populism unsettles the foundations of democratic representation. Bringing together insights from digital politics, the history of political thought, and critical social theory, the session illuminated the multiple arenas—affective, constitutional, and epistemic—through which representation is being reconfigured. Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano revealed how memetic communication and generative AI reshape political identities and moral boundaries within far-right movements. Maria Giorgia Caraceni traced these dynamics to enduring tensions within the conceptual history of popular sovereignty, while Elif Başak Ürdem demonstrated how neoliberal meritocracy generates misrecognition and drives grievances toward populist articulation. Collectively, the session highlighted the necessity of integrated, cross-disciplinary approaches for understanding the evolving crisis of democratic representation.

Session 8: Fractured Democracies — Rhetoric, Repression, and the Populist Turn

On December 11, 2025, the ECPS convened Session 8 of its Virtual Workshop Series under the theme “Fractured Democracies: Rhetoric, Repression, and the Populist Turn.” Chaired by Dr. Azize Sargin, the session examined how contemporary populism reshapes democratic politics through affect, moral narratives, and strategic communication. Assoc. Prof. Paul Joosse explored charismatic populism, focusing on suffering, moral inversion, and ritualized transgression in Trumpism, while Artem Turenko analyzed the evolving rhetoric of AfD across the 2019 and 2024 European Parliament elections. Discussants Dr. Helena Rovamo and Dr. Jonathan Madison offered critical reflections on theory, methodology, and causality. A lively Q&A further addressed economic grievance, cultural representation, and the politics of knowledge production, underscoring the session’s interdisciplinary depth and relevance.

Session 9: Populism, Crime, and the Politics of Exclusion

On January 8, 2026, ECPS convened Session 9 of its Virtual Workshop Series, titled “Populism, Crime, and the Politics of Exclusion.” The session was chaired and moderated by Dr. Helen L. Murphey, who framed exclusionary populism as a dual process that claims to empower an “authentic people” while simultaneously criminalizing stigmatized “others.” Assoc. Prof. Christopher N. Magno introduced the concept of criminal populism, showing how legal scandal and criminality can be transformed into political capital in the United States and the Philippines. Dr. Russell Foster examined how Austria’s FPÖ and France’s Rassemblement National legitimate anti-migration agendas through securitization and Gramscian metapolitics. Saga Oskarson Kindstrand drew on ethnographic research on the Sweden Democrats to challenge assumptions that populism undermines party organization. Discussants Hannah Geddes and Vlad Surdea-Hernea provided incisive reflections on theory, methodology, and democratic implications.

Session 10 — Resisting the Decline: Democratic Resilience in Authoritarian Times

ECPS convened Session 10 of its Virtual Workshop Series on January 22, 2026, bringing together scholars to examine how democracies endure, adapt, and contest authoritarian pressures amid the normalization of populist discourse and the weakening of liberal-constitutional safeguards. Chaired by Dr. Amedeo Varriale, the session framed resilience as an active democratic project—defending rule of law, pluralism, and civic participation against gradual forms of authoritarian hollowing-out. Presentations by Dr. Peter Rogers, Dr. Pierre Camus, Dr. Soheila Shahriari, and Ecem Nazlı Üçok explored resilience across market democracies, local governance, feminist self-administration in Rojava, and diaspora activism confronting anti-gender politics. Discussants Dr. Gwenaëlle Bauvois and Dr. Gabriel Bayarri Toscano connected these contributions through probing questions on the ambivalence, burdens, and transformative potential of resilience.

Session 11: Inclusion or Illusion? Narratives of Belonging, Trust, and Democracy in a Polarized Era

Session 11 of the ECPS Virtual Workshop Series, convened On Thursday, February 5, 2026, examined the tension between democratic inclusion as a normative promise and inclusion as an everyday institutional practice. Bringing together interdisciplinary perspectives, the panel explored how belonging is constructed, experienced, and contested across administrative, participatory, historical, and theoretical domains. Contributions highlighted how exclusion often operates through subtle mechanisms—bureaucratic encounters, identity-based narratives, digital mobilization, and post-revolutionary boundary drawing—rather than overt denial. Across cases from the United States, Sub-Saharan Africa, Iran, and liberal democracies more broadly, the session underscored that democratic legitimacy today depends on both representation and effective, fair governance. Collectively, the discussions illuminated why gaps between democratic ideals and lived experiences continue to fuel distrust, polarization, and populist mobilization.

Session 12: Decolonizing Democracy — Governance, Identity, and Resistance in the Global South

Session 12 of the ECPS Virtual Workshop Series explored on On Thursday, February 19, 2026, how “decolonizing democracy” requires attention to the material and symbolic structures shaping participation, legitimacy, and representation. The presentations framed democracy not as a settled institutional model but as a contested field shaped by colonial legacies, extractive political economies, and identity-based struggles over inclusion and authority. Dr. Oludele Mayowa Solaja’s comparative study of Nigeria and the United Kingdom showed how environmental governance can produce “participation without power,” where formal inclusion coexists with persistent injustice. Dr. Salomon Essaga Eteme’s analysis of Cameroon highlighted how pluralism has intensified communal claims to state ownership, complicating political alternation. Supported by Dr. Gabriel Cyril Nguijoi’s feedback, the session underscored the value of concepts such as biocultural sovereignty and communocratic populism and emphasized the need for context-sensitive, interdisciplinary approaches to democratic renewal in the Global South.

Session 13: Constructing and Deconstructing the People in Theory and Praxis

Convened on On Thursday, March 5, 2026, Session 13 of the ECPS Virtual Workshop Series examined how “the people” are constructed, contested, and institutionalized across diverse political arenas. Chaired by Dr. Leila Alieva (Oxford School for Global and Area Studies), the panel brought together interdisciplinary perspectives on populism, democratic participation, and representation. Assistant Professor Jasmin Hasanović analyzed the ethnic dynamics of populist subject formation in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s post-Dayton political order. Dr. Sixtine Van Outryve explored how participants in France’s Yellow Vests movement sought to institutionalize grassroots assembly-based democracy. Nieves Fernanda Cancela Sánchez examined the exclusion of stateless and marginalized communities from international diplomacy, arguing for a “right to diplomacy.” Together, the contributions illuminated the evolving and contested meaning of “the people” in contemporary democratic politics.

Session 14: From Bots to Ballots — AI, Populism, and the Future of Democratic Participation

On March 19, 2026, session 14 of the ECPS Virtual Workshop Series examined, how artificial intelligence, algorithmic infrastructures, and digital platforms are reshaping democratic participation in the contemporary era. Bringing together perspectives from political science, communication, cultural heritage, and democratic theory, the panel explored the implications of AI for political legitimacy, collective identity, and the future of “the people” in an increasingly post-digital world. Contributions ranged from public attitudes toward algorithmic governance and the role of ChatGPT in shaping cultural memory to Big Tech’s influence on class consciousness and the fragmentation of digital publics. Together, the presentations and discussions showed that AI is no longer external to democracy, but increasingly constitutive of its communicative, institutional, and symbolic foundations—raising urgent questions about power, accountability, and democratic contestation.

Session 15 — From Populism to Global Power Plays: Leadership, Crisis, and Democracy

On Thursday, April 2, 2026, Session 15 of the ECPS Virtual Workshop Series offered a timely and theoretically rich interrogation of how populism, personalized leadership, and systemic crisis are reshaping the horizons of democratic politics. Bringing cybernetics, political sociology, and democratic theory into productive dialogue, the session illuminated the deep entanglement between emotional mobilization, institutional fragility, and global governance under conditions of accelerating complexity. Dr. Robert R. Traill’s systems-theoretical analysis of “populist panic” and Professor Lorenzo Viviani’s political-sociological account of “manipulated resonance” together revealed populism not as a peripheral disruption, but as a central mode through which legitimacy, leadership, and “the people” are being redefined today. Enriched by incisive discussant interventions and a conceptually fertile Q&A, the session underscored the need for new democratic vocabularies capable of confronting both exclusionary affect and global instability.  

Session 16: Voices of Democracy — Art, Law, and Leadership in the Era of Polarization

The final session of the ECPS Virtual Workshop Series offered on April 16, 2026, a rich interdisciplinary reflection on democracy under conditions of deepening polarization. Bringing together legal, historical, and political perspectives, the panel illuminated how “the people” is constructed, contested, and mobilized across different contexts—from defamation law in the United States to institutional legitimacy in Israel, classical rhetoric in Athens, and emotional narratives in contemporary European populism. A central insight concerned the interplay of law, emotion, and symbolic representation in shaping democratic resilience and vulnerability. By foregrounding the cultural and affective dimensions of politics, the session underscored that democracy is not only institutional but deeply interpretive—sustained, challenged, and reimagined through competing narratives of identity, legitimacy, and belonging.