Stop Trump Coalition march, Central London, United Kingdom, September 17, 2025. Protesters dressed as Musk, Farage, Vance, Putin, Trump, and Netanyahu. Photo: Ben Gingell.

Policy Brief: The Conditions for a Democratic Pushback Against Populism

This policy brief by Andrea Guidotti offers a research-based assessment of the conditions under which democratic actors can push back against populism. Synthesizing recent scholarship on populist emergence, incumbency, accountability, and democratic defense, the brief shows that populism thrives amid economic insecurity, cultural backlash, crises of representation, and weak party systems. Yet it also emphasizes that populist power is not immune to constraint: organizational weaknesses, governing responsibilities, institutional resistance, and crisis mismanagement can undermine populist appeal. The analysis cautions that neither confrontation nor accommodation provides a universal solution; both may backfire under specific conditions. Instead, effective democratic defense requires context-sensitive strategies combining institutional robustness, coordinated opposition, citizen engagement, and careful management of polarization. Ultimately, democratic erosion remains reversible, but not automatically so.

By Andrea Guidotti

Introduction

The literature on the study of populism has flourished, building on studies investigating the causes and roots of populism, from the West to Latin America, Southeast Asia, and beyond. On the one hand, scholars have defined different ways to conceptualize populism, notably the ideational (Mudde, 2004; Hawkins & Kaltwasser, 2018), political-strategic (Weyland, 2001 & 2021), discursive (Laclau, 2005a & 2005b), performative (Moffitt, 2015), and socio-cultural approaches (Ostiguy, 2017). On the other hand, there has been a development of historically informed reconstructions of how populism rises in certain contexts, especially after crises (Pappas, 2019; Weyland, 1999; Norris & Inglehart, 2019).

The latter research agenda mirrors comparative and empirical studies reconstructing how mainstream political forces and elected leaders erode institutional norms by fueling polarization and twisting democratic mechanisms (Levitsky & Ziblatt, 2018; Valentim et al., 2025; Stokes, 2025; Bunce et al., 2025). A more neglected niche in the academic literature has focused on the possibilities for political actors and the structural constraints they face when fighting against the contemporary surge of populist platforms and rhetoric. Building on academic work focusing on the protection of democratic norms and institutions, this policy brief is dedicated to offering a concise reconstruction of the major findings within this emerging literature and outlining potential policy actions to counter such developments.

Conditions for Populist Success

One of the main drivers of populist emergence concerns economic factors. Periods characterised by economic shocks and recessions favour the rise of populist movements. In the European context, the financial crisis played a key role, increasing the electoral support for populist parties by about ten to fifteen percentage points (Guriev & Papaioannou, 2022). A systematic meta-analysis of the literature confirms that a significant portion of cases of populist emergence is causally associated with economic insecurity (Scheiring et al., 2024).

Cultural shifts and perceived cultural crises are another major driver of populism. Between the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century, modern societies with developed liberal democracies experienced unprecedented changes in social attitudes, mainly a shift from material and physical security concerns to post-materialist demands for greater individual liberties and room for self-expression. This triggered what Norris & Inglehart (2019) call a cultural and populist backlash.

Nonetheless, other authors argue that cultural theories should search for different causal explanations, either suggesting that data show how young cohorts, as well as older ones, hold (authoritarian) populist attitudes and electoral behaviours (Schäfer, 2022), or stressing the importance of unresolved issues and older cleavages in explaining support for populist movements (Baro & Todal Jenssen, 2025).

From an organizational and strategic point of view, plebiscitarian populist leaders have gained political power by leveraging three factors (Weyland, 1999). The first is the weakness of the party system. Strong internal disagreement and inconsistencies within mainstream parties constitute a permissive cause for populist movements. The second is the adoption of an adversarial strategy towards political opponents, whereby populist leaders strengthen their position by undermining the credibility of other political actors. The third element is the promotion of a confrontational approach towards structured trade unions and lobbying organizations.

While theories of populist emergence based on economic crises tend to treat political processes as exogenous, this view builds on the idea that the most appropriate indicator to gauge the rise of populism is political crises of representation, mainly endogenous to politics (Pappas, 2012). Such crises are necessary but not sufficient conditions for populism to flourish, and they are sufficient as long as there is adequate political leadership ready to mediate between emergency scenarios and citizens’ demands (Pappas, 2019).

The traction acquired by plebiscitary populist leaders is something not to be underestimated. In Latin America, populist incumbents have often exploited crisis situations so severely as to hamper the space and agency for advancing legitimate political opposition, thus pushing the democratic system towards a competitive authoritarian setting (Levitsky & Loxton, 2013).

Crises of democratic representation are the other side of the coin of populist emergence. While populist leaders capitalize on structural developments and favorable political conjunctures, citizens find ways to express their dissatisfaction with the current state of democracy. Employing longitudinal individual-level data from the European Social Survey (2012–2020), researchers have found that the rise of populism is deeply rooted in democratic dissatisfaction. Populists and non-voters are the most dissatisfied with democratic features, displaying a strong overall mismatch in expectations: European citizens hold very high expectations for democracy, but they perceive that the social and direct democracy dimensions are underperforming (Favaretto & Mariani, 2024).

Some interpretations of the rational voting model help explain why citizens may opt for radical (right-wing) populist parties. Where parties retain a centralized and stable structure and, in parallel, externally project policy effectiveness and competence in their core issue area, voters perceive their decision to electorally support populist outsiders as a strategic way to influence the political agenda when they disagree with the actions of established parties (Betz, 2002).

Populist Accountability in Government

On a general level, personalistic populist parties face three structural constraints while in government: (i) the failure to achieve conflict resolution among major personalities within the party leadership; (ii) the lack of a coherent political platform capable of delivering concrete results; and (iii) the absence of an experienced and skilled governing class. These conditions tend to favor mainstream and conservative parties over populist actors in power (Heinish, 2003).

Nonetheless, the crucial determinant of populist parties’ success during incumbency is their ability to adapt the party’s strategies and priorities to the new goal of office maximization rather than populist vote attraction (Luther et al., 2011). As the Latin American experience shows, another key moment of confrontation arises when populist incumbents face constraints from oppositional forces and the judicial apparatus.

This decisive moment determines whether populists choose to create power asymmetries vis-à-vis other branches of government, thereby becoming an unconstrained governing majority. Throughout this process, populist leaders may mobilize societal organizations or even manufacture state-sponsored confederations to establish hegemonic or authoritarian rule, respectively (Carrion, 2021).

Besides cases of populist governing majorities, there is empirical evidence regarding the cost of converging toward more mainstream political platforms after entering a coalition with other political parties post-elections. Van Spanje (2011) shows that anti-political establishment parties incur an additional cost of governing, in terms of future electoral support, after becoming part of a governing coalition.

Rather than becoming doubtful about the policy compromises made by their populist representatives, supporters are dissuaded by the perceived lack of genuineness in their anti-establishment leitmotifs. Similar findings are presented by other scholars. Katsanidou and Reinl (2020) disprove the correlation between ideological congruence on the left-right and European dimensions and voter support for populist parties in government. Instead, the main driver of populist vote defection is the perception that newly elected representatives are no longer fighting against elites and protecting the people’s interests, thereby breaking the populist link.

Policy accountability for ruling-party populist coalitions follows the same logic. A bank expansion and demonetization policy program implemented in India in 2005 provides an indicative example. Even though individuals from areas most affected by demonetization, due to the presence of fewer banks in the region, were 4.7 percentage points less likely to support the ruling coalition, stronghold areas presented a more nuanced pattern.

Citizens were found to be, on average, unresponsive to the negative externalities of demonetization policies when strongly aligned with the ruling populist party (Khanna & Mukherjee, 2023). The picture changes when populists are confronted with crises.

In the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, populist governments were unable to “perform” the crisis, which consequently exposed their political incompetence. This reduced citizens’ support by 10 percentage points throughout the first year of the emergency (Foa et al., 2022), while in parallel decreasing the share of populist attitudes within the population (Daniele et al., 2020).

Opposing and Fighting (Illiberal) Populism

Countering Illiberal Threats

Empirical research reveals a new pattern of regime-type transformation. In this sense, U-turns can be characterized as episodes of autocratization followed by subsequent episodes of democratization. Specifically, Nord et al. (2025) demonstrate that nearly half of the 102 autocratization episodes taking place between 1900 and 2023 reversed course and eventually resulted in a restored or even improved level of democracy.

Data suggest that 85% of democratic regimes sliding into autocratization episodes U-turned into democracy. Accounting for a more recent period—the last three decades—democratic reactions represent 61% of all U-turns. It is thus clear that a window of opportunity for political action aimed at protecting democracy, its rules, and institutions has opened up in recent times.

As Capoccia (2001) puts it, defending democracy denotes “the elaboration and enactment of short-term political strategies, whether inclusive or repressive in nature, which are explicitly aimed at reacting against those political forces that exploit the rights and guarantees of democracy in order to undermine its fundamental bases.”

To properly deliver democratic defense against illiberal actors, some scholars have developed a series of tools and instruments. On a general level, one should be able to assess the level of threat depending on the nature of the organization—whether collective or individual—that is advancing the challenge. In addition, when confronted with a group, it is important to identify leaders and followers, as well as to understand its internal composition, with the aim of differentially targeting radical and moderate members. Finally, it is essential to establish the objective of one’s own actions: whether the goal of democratic defense is to (i) change illiberals’ attitudes and civic competence, (ii) change illiberals’ behavior, or (iii) mobilize democrats (Lurmhann et al., 2020).

On a more sophisticated level, this emerging literature has conceptualized the defense of democracy in different, but interconnected, ways. Merkel and Lührmann (2021) focus on a functionalist understanding of democratic resilience, clarifying how different responses to prevent or react to illiberal challenges—namely, withstanding major changes, adapting through internal reforms, and recovering after initial damage—are necessary but not sufficient conditions for successful democratic defense.

Two other constitutive dimensions to consider carefully are structural and actor-centered. The former examines the institutional relationships among governing bodies: the legislature, the executive, and the judiciary. The latter scrutinizes the conditions under which political agents can nurture democratic resilience, distinguishing among political parties, civil society, and citizens as members of a polity.

Tomini et al. (2022) provide a typology of so-called resisters to autocratization—namely institutional, political, and social actors—while highlighting that the regime type critically influences both the actors involved and the degree of their democratic resistance. Gamboa et al. (2023) detail the scope and nature of specific measures implemented by oppositional forces in response to incumbent-led democratic backsliding along two dimensions: strategy type and desired goals.

Briefly, strategies can be either institutional or extra-institutional, and goals can be either moderate or radical. The combination of these key dimensions shapes the incentives and costs faced by democratic defenders.

From a procedural and normative standpoint, democratic defense can be addressed in three different ways (Malkopoulou & Norman, 2018). An elitist conception of democracy informs militant democratic defense, consequently violating the principle of non-domination. A procedural account of democratic defense adopts an inclusionary posture but underestimates the role of ordinary citizens and their agency. By contrast, a social model of democratic self-defense enhances the credibility of civil society actors and their participation in such a process as a baseline condition for the full realization of democracy.

In this context, actor-centered approaches to democratic recession appear to hold strong explanatory power. According to Van Lit et al. (2024), the strategic interaction between elites and citizens is the key element within the two-level game of democratic defense. Following this framework, elites’ decision to defend democracy is a function of their self-interest in maintaining the democratic status quo and the threat of repression by incumbents.

On the other side, citizens’ engagement and considerations result from a comparison between the ambiguity of the incumbent’s threat and the democratic credibility of elite defenders (Van Lit & Meijers, 2025).

Building on these insights, a research agenda and theoretical account have been put forward, offering a comprehensive model for countering illiberalism in liberal democracies. In his framework, Capoccia (2026) refines the understanding of viable countermeasures that can be adopted by a range of actors against illiberal threats and defines the related successful outcomes. His dynamic approach helps to explain how endogenous and exogenous information affect the temporal structure, as well as the sources of variation in institutional legacies across time and space, of pro-democratic interventions.

Countering Populism

Populism has become a defining characteristic of contemporary democracies and has developed in many Western countries. To avoid an even greater surge, liberal democratic actors should reduce the level of polarization, especially on matters related to identity politics. To do so, their objective should be to avoid paternalistic narratives and direct opposition to populist actors. Rather, they should concentrate on shaping norms by allowing populists to enter governing coalitions under certain premises.

In this way, populist actors can be held accountable based on the success of their promised actions within such coalitions (Kendall-Taylor & Nietsche, 2020). By welcoming populist ideas within governing coalitions, mainstream parties can not only broaden their electoral support by adopting some of their core policy positions, but also ostracize the more extremist and divisive elements present in populist political agendas. As empirically shown by Van Spanje and de Graaf (2018), analogous strategies can help increase support and the electoral gains of incumbent parties.

This strategy does not come without risks. The strategies of mainstream parties critically influence the chances of success of emerging niche and populist parties in electoral terms (Meguid, 2005). According to Berman (2021), we can summarize three distinct strategies that mainstream parties can adopt to address the emergence of new populist movements. The first is a dismissive strategy aimed at ignoring the key issues of interest to populist newcomers. The second is an adversarial strategy based on direct and explicit opposition to populist newcomers. The third is accommodative in nature, entailing policy convergence toward the political platforms of emerging populists.

Overall, strategies emphasizing either convergence or polarization can be detrimental to democracy under certain conditions. On the one hand, during periods of economic distress, an emphasis on polarizing cultural issues can push citizens toward populist parties that offer scapegoats and simplistic solutions. On the other hand, when votes tend to disperse toward the extremes of the Gaussian distribution, mainstream parties’ convergence toward populist positions may directly nudge citizens to shift their preferences closer to new populist actors (Berman & Kundnani, 2021).

Safeguards against populist illiberal actors can be found on historical and institutional grounds. Populists’ attempts at strangling liberal democracy may be hampered by high levels of institutional solidity and organizational strength, thereby safeguarding pluralism and even indirectly revitalizing democratic participation and resilience (Weyland, 2024a).

When populists are in power, institutional parameters are not the only drivers enabling a pushback. In such cases, the strategies of oppositional forces largely depend on the strength or weakness of the institutional framework and the initial degree of institutional solidity. Moreover, conjunctural opportunities also play a decisive role. Unexpected favorable economic conditions can boost support for populists and expand their scope of action, while significantly limiting the agency of oppositional forces. Acute crises can also enhance charismatic populist leaders’ popular appeal by obscuring the public standing of democratic opponents (Weyland, 2025b).

There seems to be only negative evidence concerning effective, actionable strategies to implement against populist forces. An experiment in Italian municipalities during a 2020 constitutional referendum proposing a reduction in the total number of Members of Parliament (MPs) from 945 to 600 in the two chambers of the Italian Parliament offers some indications (Galasso et al., 2024). Deploying a two-tier advertisement campaign, Stanig et al. (2022) tested the efficacy of two approaches to opposing populism: (i) a “win the argument” strategy aimed at persuading voters by deconstructing populist ideas; and (ii) a “use the same weapons” strategy attempting to reduce populist parties’ credibility, thereby lowering populist voters’ turnout.

Findings from a follow-up survey conducted in 2023 show that, while the campaign reduced attachment to established populist parties, attempts to counter populism by applying its own tactics increased voter disaffection and ultimately backfired. Notably, individuals targeted by the campaign were more likely to support newer and emerging populist parties (Galasso, 2024).

Conclusion

In sum, the literature suggests that democratic pushback against populism is neither automatic nor uniformly effective, but contingent on a complex interaction of structural conditions, institutional resilience, and strategic agency. While economic insecurity, cultural backlash, and crises of representation create fertile ground for populist mobilization, the durability of such movements in power remains constrained by organizational weaknesses, accountability pressures, and their capacity to adapt from opposition to governance.

At the same time, evidence on counter-strategies reveals no universally effective blueprint. Both confrontational and accommodative approaches by mainstream parties carry significant risks, potentially reinforcing polarization or legitimizing populist agendas. Similarly, attempts to counter populism through its own communicative logic may generate unintended consequences, including increased voter disaffection and the emergence of new populist actors.

Nevertheless, recent patterns of democratic “U-turns” indicate that democratic erosion is not irreversible. Institutional robustness, coordinated opposition, and favorable conjunctural conditions can reopen pathways to democratic recovery. As a result, effective democratic defense depends on context-sensitive strategies that balance institutional safeguards, political competition, and citizen engagement, rather than relying on singular or deterministic solutions.


 

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On April 20, 2026, the ECPS, in collaboration with the Center for American Progress (CAP), convened a closed expert roundtable in Washington, D.C., to examine the evolving nexus between populism and transatlantic relations.

ECPS Roundtable in Washington Examines Populism’s Impact on Transatlantic Relations

A high-level roundtable convened by the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS) at the Center for American Progress (CAP) on April 20, 2026, brought together leading scholars and policy experts to examine how populism is reshaping transatlantic relations. Held under the Chatham House Rule, the discussion highlighted growing concerns over declining trust, institutional erosion, and the shift toward more transactional and unpredictable forms of diplomacy. Participants emphasized that populism operates less as a coherent ideology than as a governing style marked by rule-breaking and strategic uncertainty, with far-reaching consequences for global cooperation. The exchange pointed to an evolving transatlantic partnership—more selective, fragile, and contingent—while underscoring the need for renewed democratic coordination, institutional resilience, and sustained engagement beyond government channels.

Reported by ECPS Staff

On April 20, 2026, the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), in collaboration with the Center for American Progress (CAP), convened a closed expert roundtable in Washington, D.C., to examine the evolving nexus between populism and transatlantic relations. Bringing together a select group of scholars, policy analysts, and practitioners, the discussion focused on how contemporary political transformations—particularly the resurgence of populist leadership in the United States—are reshaping the strategic, institutional, and normative foundations of the transatlantic partnership. 

Building on ECPS’s prior engagements in European policy circles, the Washington meeting shifted analytical attention toward the United States as a central agenda-setter in transatlantic relations. The discussion was structured around three thematic blocks: (1) US strategic reorientation, (2) populism and commitment to liberal democracy, and (3) pathways to re-engagement. 

Framing the Discussion: A Relationship at a Turning Point

The roundtable opened with reflections on the ECPS report, which framed the current moment as a potential turning point in transatlantic relations. Participants broadly agreed that the relationship is undergoing a qualitative transformation, characterized by declining trust, shifting strategic priorities, and growing uncertainty about the durability of shared norms.

A central theme emerging from the introductory presentations was the distinction between structural and contingent explanations. While some developments—such as the US pivot to the Indo-Pacific and the relative rise of other global powers—reflect long-term structural changes, others appear closely tied to the political agency of contemporary populist leadership. 

The discussion underscored that these dynamics are not mutually exclusive. Instead, structural pressures and political contingencies interact in ways that amplify uncertainty. In particular, the return of a populist administration in the United States has accelerated tendencies toward unilateralism, transactional diplomacy, and skepticism toward multilateral institutions.

Participants noted that, unlike earlier periods of tension, current disruptions are compounded by a deeper erosion of trust. European actors increasingly perceive the transatlantic relationship as subject to abrupt shifts across electoral cycles, undermining its reliability as a strategic anchor.

Populism as Political Agency: Rule-Breaking and Uncertainty

A key analytical contribution of the discussion concerned the conceptualization of populism. Rather than treating populism as a coherent ideology, participants emphasized its manifestation through political agency—specifically, the capacity of populist leaders to disrupt established norms and institutional constraints.

In this regard, populism was associated with a distinctive governing style characterized by rule-breaking behavior and the strategic use of uncertainty. As one participant argued, populist leaders often derive power from their willingness to challenge established rules, thereby reshaping the expectations that underpin international cooperation. 

This dynamic has profound implications for the transatlantic system. The postwar order was built on a rules-based framework that enabled long-term planning, reduced transaction costs, and facilitated stable cooperation. When key actors repeatedly violate or reinterpret these rules, the system’s self-correcting mechanisms begin to erode.

Participants highlighted the cascading effects of such behavior. Even when most actors continue to adhere to established norms, the actions of rule-breaking leaders can disrupt dispute-resolution mechanisms, fragment global value chains, and generate systemic instability. 

This perspective shifts attention from populism as rhetoric to populism as practice—an approach that foregrounds the operational consequences of leadership choices in shaping international relations.

Trade, Institutions, and the Erosion of Multilateralism

The discussion devoted significant attention to the impact of populist governance on international economic and institutional frameworks. In the domain of trade, participants noted that recent policy shifts—particularly the imposition of unpredictable tariffs—have undermined the predictability essential to global commerce.

These developments reflect a broader move toward transactionalism, in which economic relations are subordinated to short-term political objectives. While the majority of international trade continues to follow established rules, the weakening of dispute-resolution mechanisms has diminished the system’s capacity to manage conflicts effectively. 

A parallel erosion was observed in multilateral institutions. Participants emphasized that these institutions depend not only on formal rules but also on the willingness of major powers to support and sustain them. When leading actors withdraw resources or disengage from cooperative frameworks, institutional effectiveness declines.

Examples discussed included the consequences of reduced US participation in global governance structures, which can create funding gaps, disrupt information-sharing networks, and weaken collective problem-solving capacities. 

Importantly, participants noted that the current crisis of multilateralism is not solely the result of populist leadership. It also reflects longstanding concerns about representation and legitimacy within global institutions. Populist actors have capitalized on these grievances, framing institutional disengagement as a defense of national sovereignty.

Strategic Reorientation: Competition, Cooperation, and Fragmentation

The first thematic block of the discussion addressed the strategic dimension of transatlantic relations. Participants debated whether recent shifts represent a temporary deviation or a more durable realignment.

Several contributors argued that the United States is undergoing a strategic reorientation driven by both domestic politics and global competition. The increasing emphasis on the Indo-Pacific, coupled with a more transactional approach to alliances, suggests a recalibration of priorities that may persist beyond any single administration. 

At the same time, the discussion highlighted the risks of fragmentation. As global value chains are reconfigured to enhance resilience and reduce dependency, they may become less compatible across regions. This process could lead to a form of “competitive strategic autonomy,” in which major actors develop parallel economic systems with limited interoperability.

For Europe, this presents a complex challenge. On one hand, there is a growing recognition of the need to reduce reliance on the United States and to enhance strategic autonomy. On the other hand, the transatlantic relationship remains a critical pillar of security and economic cooperation.

Participants suggested that the most plausible scenario is neither full decoupling nor a return to previous levels of integration, but rather a narrower and more selective partnership. 

Populism and Liberal Democracy: Normative Divergence

The second thematic block focused on the normative dimension of transatlantic relations, particularly the status of shared democratic values. Participants expressed concern that populist politics are contributing to a divergence in commitments to liberal democratic principles.

Key tensions identified included the relationship between geopolitics and democracy promotion, the credibility of values-based foreign policy, and the role of non-state actors in sustaining democratic norms. 

One line of argument emphasized that populist leaders often frame international institutions as constraints on national sovereignty, thereby weakening support for multilateral cooperation. Another perspective highlighted the internal contradictions of populist governance, noting that nationalist policies can lead to conflicts even among ideologically aligned actors.

The discussion also explored the potential for an alternative conception of transatlantic relations grounded in civilizational or cultural affinities rather than universalist values. While such narratives may resonate with certain political constituencies, participants questioned their viability as a basis for stable cooperation.

At the same time, the discussion acknowledged that populism is not inherently antithetical to democracy. Some participants emphasized its roots in legitimate grievances, including perceptions of inequality, corruption, and elite unresponsiveness. This perspective suggests that addressing the underlying drivers of populism is essential for restoring democratic legitimacy.

Pathways to Re-Engagement: Actors and Strategies

The final thematic block examined potential pathways for stabilizing and renewing transatlantic relations. Participants identified a range of actors and mechanisms that could mitigate political volatility and sustain cooperation.

At the governmental level, there was recognition of the need for pragmatic engagement across political divides. While ideological differences may limit the scope of cooperation, targeted initiatives in areas of mutual interest—such as security, trade, and technology—could provide a basis for continued collaboration.

Civil society and academic networks were highlighted as particularly important buffers against political disruption. Universities, think tanks, and research collaborations play a crucial role in maintaining dialogue, generating knowledge, and fostering mutual understanding.

Policy networks and economic stakeholders were also identified as key actors. Business communities, advocacy groups, and transnational partnerships can help sustain cooperation by emphasizing shared interests and interdependencies.

Participants emphasized that these actors are not substitutes for governmental engagement but rather complementary forces that can enhance resilience and adaptability.

Policy Reflections: Toward a More Resilient Partnership

In the concluding segment, participants were invited to propose concrete steps for improving transatlantic relations over the next two to three years. 

Several recurring themes emerged:

Rebuilding Trust: Restoring predictability in policy and communication was identified as a critical priority. This includes strengthening institutional mechanisms that can endure political transitions.

Enhancing Strategic Autonomy: European actors should continue to develop independent capabilities while maintaining cooperation with the United States.

Reforming Multilateral Institutions: Addressing concerns about representation and effectiveness could help restore confidence in global governance frameworks.

Investing in Non-State Networks: Expanding collaboration among civil society, academia, and the private sector can provide stability in times of political uncertainty.

Addressing Domestic Drivers of Populism: Tackling inequality, corruption, and governance deficits is essential for mitigating the appeal of populist narratives.

Conclusion

The ECPS roundtable provided a multidimensional assessment of the challenges facing transatlantic relations in an era of populist resurgence. While the discussion highlighted significant risks—including institutional erosion, normative divergence, and strategic fragmentation—it also identified opportunities for adaptation and renewal.

A central conclusion of the meeting is that the transatlantic relationship is unlikely to return to its previous form. Instead, it is evolving into a more contingent and selective partnership shaped by both structural transformations and political agency.

At the same time, the discussion underscored the enduring importance of shared interests and values. Even as these foundations are contested, they continue to provide a basis for cooperation and resilience.

Ultimately, the future of transatlantic relations will depend not only on the actions of governments but also on the capacity of societies to sustain democratic norms, foster inclusive growth, and engage constructively across borders. In this sense, the challenge is not merely to defend existing institutions but to reimagine them in ways that reflect the complexities of a changing world.

The roundtable thus reaffirmed the need for sustained dialogue, critical reflection, and collaborative action, and essential ingredients for navigating the uncertain terrain of contemporary global politics.

Professor Adam Przeworski.

Professor Przeworski: There Is No Worldwide Crisis of Democracy

In this interview, Professor Adam Przeworski, Emeritus Professor of Politics at New York University, challenges dominant narratives of a global democratic crisis. Against widespread claims of democratic recession and authoritarian resurgence, he argues: “I do not believe there is a worldwide crisis of democracy.” For Professor Przeworski, democracy remains best understood as a mechanism for processing conflict through elections rather than as a system that resolves all social, economic, or moral disagreements. While he acknowledges unprecedented developments—party-system instability, polarization, and the rise of new right-wing parties—he cautions against conflating these shifts with systemic collapse. His analysis highlights democracy’s self-preserving capacity, insisting that while “small transgressions may be tolerated,” major violations of democratic rules eventually encounter resistance.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

In an era increasingly defined by claims of democratic recession, authoritarian resurgence, and the global diffusion of populist politics, few voices carry the analytical weight and empirical authority of Professor Adam Przeworski, Emeritus Professor of Politics at New York University (NYU). A foundational figure in democratic theory, Professor Przeworski has long conceptualized democracy not as a teleological endpoint, but as a contingent institutional arrangement grounded in electoral competition and the management of conflict. His minimalist definition—“a system in which governments can be selected and removed through elections”—offers a parsimonious yet powerful framework for evaluating both democratic resilience and vulnerability. In this interview, conducted against the backdrop of intensifying scholarly and public concern about democratic backsliding, Professor Przeworski advances a deliberately counterintuitive claim: “I do not believe there is a worldwide crisis of democracy.”

This assertion stands in sharp contrast to dominant narratives, including those informed by datasets such as V-Dem, which suggest a global shift toward autocratization. Yet Professor Przeworski challenges both the empirical basis and the interpretive framing of such claims. “What does it really mean to say that a majority of the world’s population lives under authoritarian governments?” he asks, expressing skepticism toward measurement strategies that, in his view, risk overstating crisis dynamics. Instead, he emphasizes a more structural and historically grounded perspective: “There are more democratic regimes—more democratic countries—in the world today than ever before.” For Professor Przeworski, the proliferation of democratic regimes, even amid evident tensions, complicates the narrative of systemic collapse.

At the core of his argument lies a reconceptualization of democratic instability. While acknowledging “recent changes that are indeed unprecedented—such as the weakening of political parties, the instability of party systems, and the emergence of new parties, particularly on the political right,” he resists interpreting these developments as evidence of a generalized breakdown. Rather, they reflect shifting configurations within democratic systems that have always been characterized by conflict, contestation, and dissatisfaction. Indeed, as he notes, “as much as half of the population is always dissatisfied with what democracy produces,” a condition intrinsic to competitive politics rather than indicative of systemic failure.

Crucially, Professor Przeworski situates contemporary democratic challenges within a broader theory of political conflict and institutional equilibrium. Democracy endures not because it resolves all conflicts, but because it provides a mechanism—elections—through which they can be processed and temporarily settled. Even processes of democratic erosion, he suggests, remain bounded by this logic. While incumbents may attempt to “undermine democracy without abolishing elections,” such strategies are neither universally successful nor irreversible. On the contrary, recent electoral developments in countries such as Poland and Brazil illustrate democracy’s capacity for self-correction. “Attempts to usurp power through various means eventually encounter resistance,” he observes, emphasizing that “small transgressions may be tolerated, but major violations of democratic rules are not.”

This perspective invites a more nuanced understanding of both populism and authoritarianism. Rather than external threats to democracy, they emerge as endogenous features of political competition under conditions of inequality, polarization, and institutional strain. At the same time, Professor Przeworski underscores the enduring appeal of democratic choice itself. “The very possibility of choosing who governs us,” he argues, “is an extraordinarily strong value to which people adhere.”

By challenging prevailing assumptions about democratic decline, this interview offers a sobering yet cautiously optimistic account of contemporary politics. It suggests that while liberal democracy faces significant pressures, its foundational mechanisms—and the normative commitments that sustain them—remain more resilient than often assumed.

Here is the edited version of our interview with Professor Adam Przeworski, revised slightly to improve clarity and flow.

Democracy as Conflict Management

Israelis protest in Tel Aviv against Netanyahu’s Judicial Coup in Israel. Photo: Avivi Aharon.

Professor Przeworski, welcome. Your minimalist conception defines democracy as a system in which governments can be selected and removed through elections. In light of contemporary backsliding, does this procedural definition remain analytically sufficient, or do recent developments compel us to integrate more substantive criteria concerning rights, accountability, and the rule of law?

Professor Adam Przeworski: I think that to understand my view of democracy—the minimalist view of democracy—one has to start with the observation that, in every country, at every time, there is conflict. These conflicts are often normative; that is, people expect democracy to implement certain values, such as those you mentioned. There are also economic conflicts—indeed, most conflicts are economic—dealing with the distribution of income, work, and so on. Sometimes they are purely symbolic. I often cite the example of a government in the Weimar Republic that fell because it changed the colors of the national flag. But the key point is that there was conflict.

The essence of the minimalist conception is that we must find ways to manage these conflicts—ways to resolve them, at least temporarily. After all, different people expect different things from democracy: some emphasize freedom, others equality. So how do we resolve these conflicts? This is where my argument comes in. I contend that we resolve them through elections. Whatever else people expect from democracy, we must have a mechanism through which conflicts are processed and resolved.

No Generalized Crisis of Democracy

You distinguish democracy as a mechanism for processing conflict from democracy as a normative ideal. To what extent has the growing expectation that democracy should deliver not only representation, but also economic equality and moral outcomes contributed to its current crisis of legitimacy?

Professor Adam Przeworski: I am not sure that this represents something new. As long as democracy has existed—in some countries for 200 years, and in at least 13 countries for 100 consecutive years—there have been such divergences. We have always disagreed about what we should expect of democracy, and which values it ought to implement. There is nothing new about that.

From this perspective, some people—and perhaps, in many cases, as much as half of the population—are always dissatisfied with what democracy produces. From time to time, they express this dissatisfaction by voting incumbent governments out. That is the instrument available to them, and that is how the system works.

For this reason, I do not think there is something like a generalized crisis of democracy. That said, there are recent changes that are indeed unprecedented—such as the weakening of political parties, the instability of party systems, and the emergence of new parties, particularly on the political right. These are significant developments, and they should prompt concern. But I would not characterize them as evidence of a new, generalized crisis of democracy. As I said at the outset, I do not believe such a generalized crisis exists.

The US as the Exception

Your work emphasizes that democracy endures when the stakes of losing power are not existential. How should we interpret rising inequality, identity polarization, and winner-takes-all political competition in this regard—do they structurally raise the cost of electoral defeat beyond sustainable thresholds?

Professor Adam Przeworski: The stakes in elections have indeed increased in recent years. At the same time, however, I do not see a generalized threat to democracy. There is, of course, an elephant in the room: the United States. In the United States, democracy is truly in danger. But if we consider similar countries—economically highly developed societies with comparable, perhaps somewhat lower, levels of inequality, significant political polarization, and long democratic traditions—the picture looks different.

In these countries, even when right-wing parties, including those with fascist roots, come to power—at least as members of governing coalitions—they do not necessarily threaten democracy. What strikes me is that, if you look at Italy, for example, where a party with explicit fascist roots is governing, or Austria or Sweden, where such parties have been part of coalitions, they still adhere to democratic values. They may advance unprecedented programs—programs that many of us, including myself, may strongly dislike—but they do not, in themselves, threaten democracy. In that sense, the threat to democracy appears to be largely exceptional to the United States.

Democracy Under Formal Trappings

Following the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, protests erupted across numerous cities in Turkey. Citizens took to the streets to voice their opposition to the decision and express growing discontent.
Photo: Dreamstime.

You have argued that contemporary democratic breakdowns occur primarily through elected incumbents. Does this shift from coups to endogenous erosion indicate that the institutional architecture of modern democracies has become intrinsically vulnerable to strategic capture?

Professor Adam Przeworski: That is an extremely controversial topic, but the answer is probably yes. When you look at the data, military coups have almost completely disappeared in the 21st century. Until around the year 2000, democracies were typically destroyed in a visible way—through military takeovers and coups. Since then, the only democracy that has experienced a coup is Thailand. While there have been many coups in Africa, particularly in North Africa, they have not been directed against democratic regimes. This suggests a new pattern.

It is likely new because some governments have learned that they can remain in power while preserving the formal trappings of democracy—by subordinating institutions other than the executive, controlling the media and economic resources, and employing a degree of repression, as in Turkey. In other words, they have learned to operate under the guise of democracy while using a range of instruments to entrench their rule.

At the same time, these governments do lose elections. They lost an election in Poland, and more recently in Hungary, contrary to many expectations and the more pessimistic forecasts of some analysts. This indicates that, while incumbents have developed strategies to gradually undermine democracy without abolishing elections or fully delegitimizing the opposition, the process is neither complete nor irreversible. For that reason, I would not characterize this as a universal phenomenon, and it remains unclear how durable it will be.

The Dilemma of Democratic Resistance

Within your strategic framework, incumbents choose whether to uphold or subvert electoral competition. How should we conceptualize “stealth authoritarianism,” where legalistic and incremental institutional changes cumulatively undermine democracy without triggering immediate resistance?

Professor Adam Przeworski: Let me begin with the question of immediate resistance. These governments win elections—Erdoğan won elections; Chávez and then Maduro won elections; Orbán won elections; and in Poland, the right-wing party won elections. They come to power on a program, and then the opposition faces a difficult choice. The opposition may see that these governments threaten democracy but opposing them can itself appear undemocratic. After all, these leaders have just won an election. Taking to the streets to say, “No, these people cannot govern,” risks being perceived as an anti-democratic act.

At some point, however, it may become too late. If these governments succeed in consolidating their partisan advantage—as in Venezuela or Turkey—then by the time the opposition decides that it can no longer tolerate the situation because democracy is being undermined, incumbents may already be too strong. They may be able to repress their opponents or otherwise entrench themselves in power. So, strategically, this is a very difficult situation. The opposition must be extremely careful about what to oppose and when to oppose it.

Public Tolerance and Democratic Erosion

Serbia protest.
Serbian students and citizens protest against government corruption following the Novi Sad railway station accident, at Slavija Square in Belgrade, Serbia, on December 22, 2024. Photo: Mirko Kuzmanovic / Dreamstime.

You suggest that democratic vulnerability can arise both from highly popular incumbents through populism and from deeply unpopular ones through polarization. How should we interpret cases where these dynamics converge, producing simultaneously mobilized support and entrenched opposition?

Professor Adam Przeworski: The way I think about it is that governments which, in fact, threaten democracy sometimes win elections. We now have extensive evidence, originally due to Professor Milan Svolik at Yale, showing that people are willing to tolerate certain violations of democratic norms and rules in exchange for substantive outcomes they value. As Svolik and Matthew H. Graham demonstrate in a well-known article, the number of unconditional democrats—that is, people who would not tolerate any violation of democratic norms for any substantive outcome—is very small in the United States. If I recall correctly, they estimate it at around 6 percent.

At the same time, evidence from Carlos Boix and his collaborators shows that when the question is framed more broadly—whether people are willing to give up democracy altogether—the answer is strongly negative. In other words, people may tolerate some transgressions, but not a complete abandonment of democracy. This creates a particular dynamic in processes of democratic backsliding. People may accept certain violations, but when governments go too far, they react—they protest, object, and sometimes vote incumbents out of office, as seen in Hungary and Poland.

In this sense, governments sometimes backslide because they can—because such actions are tolerated. At other times, however, they may backslide defensively, because failing to do so could risk electoral defeat. Thus, there are two distinct forms of backsliding: one supported by public tolerance, and another that unfolds in tension with public opinion.

Delegation, Trust, and Anti-Democratic Populism

Populist leaders frequently claim to embody a unified “people” against institutional constraints. In your analytical framework, is populism best understood as a pathology of democratic representation, or as an endogenous feature of electoral competition under conditions of high stakes and limited trust?

Professor Adam Przeworski: This is, again, a theme that is inherent in democracy. We do not like to be ruled. There is always a government that tells us what we can do and, very often, what we cannot do—and we do not like it. There have always been movements demanding a greater voice for the people in governance. As you know, there are many proposals aimed at increasing the role of voters in governing—various kinds of assemblies, referendums, participatory budgeting, and so on. Numerous reforms have sought to expand the role of citizens in their governments.

At the same time, there is a form of right-wing or anti-democratic populism in which people are willing to delegate governance to a leader, as long as that leader governs well. In such cases, people say, “We will place our trust in a government that does what we want.” Both of these tendencies can be dangerous to democracy.

Populism Is Inherent in Democracy

You have argued that citizens may knowingly tolerate democratic erosion when incumbents are perceived as highly appealing. Does this imply that populism is not external to democracy, but rather a rational equilibrium outcome within it?

Professor Adam Przeworski: I think that populism, understood as a desire among voters to have a stronger and more direct voice in governing, is inherent in democracy. Populism is a slippery concept. This is why Mudde, who popularized the term, has described it as a “thin” or weak ideology. At its core, it presents a view of the world that pits elites against the people. Some version of this dynamic has always been present. It was already visible at the time the American Constitution was being written. The Anti-Federalists, for example, were populists in this sense. They advocated very short terms of office—sometimes as short as one year—as well as prohibitions on re-election, reflecting a fear that elites would capture power and use it in their own interests rather than in those of the broader population.

This dynamic is therefore as old as democracy itself, and it resurfaces from time to time. At the same time, when the question is framed more fundamentally—whether people are willing to give up democracy altogether for some alternative—we have overwhelming evidence that they are not. People are not willing to accept that; they will defend democracy.

Dissatisfaction Is Democracy’s Constant

Given your argument that political conflict is structured by the available policy alternatives, how does populism reshape the political agenda in ways that both intensify polarization and foreclose the possibility of compromise?

Professor Adam Przeworski: We do have a great deal of evidence of polarization. The proportion of the electorate willing to change its partisan preferences is almost zero, which is somewhat surprising given that party systems themselves are quite unstable. People are increasingly likely to see one another as enemies, and as a result, they are less willing to accept compromise. That said, I do not think we are living in an era of a generalized crisis of democracy. Democracy continues to function quite well in several countries. The fact that we are often dissatisfied with the outcomes of governments and their policies is nothing new.

Consider that there are almost no democratic elections in which any party wins more than 50 percent of the vote. This means that roughly half of voters are dissatisfied with the result from the outset. Once in power, governments inevitably fail to implement all their promises, and perhaps about half of their own supporters become dissatisfied as well. What we observe, then, is a broad and persistent dissatisfaction with both electoral outcomes and government performance. Yet people continue to expect that next time they will prevail, and that the government will deliver on its promises. Elections are, in a sense, a siren song—they renew our optimism that, even if it did not work this time, it might work next time. This dynamic is inherent in democracy and is likely to persist. That is why I am not inclined to interpret current developments as evidence of a generalized crisis.

Why Some Autocracies Gain Support

The Indian Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, is pictured with the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, and the President of the People’s Republic of China, Xi Jinping, in Goa, India on May 25, 2019. Photo: Shutterstock.

Your work challenges the assumption that authoritarian regimes are inherently fragile, highlighting instead their capacity to govern effectively and generate support. Does this require a fundamental revision of democratic theory’s expectations about the instability of autocracies?

Professor Adam Przeworski: It is difficult for democrats to understand why someone would be satisfied with, or even support, an authoritarian regime. We tend to assume that people would not be willing to give up their political freedom—and sometimes more than that, their cultural freedom—and trust that a government will act in their interests. As a result, much of the literature we produce in the West suggests that authoritarian regimes survive only because of misinformation, censorship, and propaganda. I do not think that is entirely true. There are authoritarian regimes that enjoy passive acceptance, and perhaps even passive support. China is one example. Why? Because authoritarian governments still have to govern—and they do govern. They repair streets, issue licenses, collect garbage; in short, they perform the everyday functions of governance. Moreover, people often do not see viable alternatives. In China, for instance, many do not seriously consider a different system; they simply live within the one they have.

So, my view is that we should not be surprised that some authoritarian regimes are relatively successful and enjoy a degree of popular support. Singapore might be one example, China another. This does not mean that all authoritarian regimes do so—many rely heavily on repression, arbitrariness, and violence in the interests of narrow elites. But the broader point is that authoritarian regimes are not sustained only by deception. Some of them do enjoy genuine support.

Development Sustains Democracy, But May Not Create It

If authoritarian regimes can derive legitimacy through economic performance, symbolic politics, or identity appeals, how does this complicate the long-standing modernization thesis linking development to democratization?

Professor Adam Przeworski: This is a long topic on which I have written extensively. What we know from the evidence is that if a democratic regime exists in an economically developed country, it is very likely to endure. That is the central lesson. In a 1997 article co-authored with Fernando Limongi, we observed that no democracy had ever fallen in a country with a per capita income higher than Argentina’s in 1976. Since then, only Thailand has experienced a democratic breakdown at a slightly higher income level. Overall, however, the evidence is clear: when democracy exists in a developed country, it tends to persist.

A different question is whether countries are more likely to become democratic as they develop economically. This was a widespread belief in the 1960s and 1970s and formed the basis of modernization theory. My conclusion, based on empirical research, is that we have no evidence supporting this claim. In other words, higher levels of economic development do not necessarily make a country more likely to become democratic. So, in a sense, one half of modernization theory is supported by the evidence, while the other half is not.

Why Some Autocracies Endure

What, in your view, distinguishes durable authoritarian regimes from fragile ones—particularly in terms of their ability to balance repression, co-optation, and everyday governance?

Professor Adam Przeworski: I do not really know; I have not studied this question directly. My view is more of a conjecture—and it is no more than that, not strongly supported by empirical evidence, largely because we do not yet have sufficient data. My sense is that when authoritarian regimes reach high levels of income, they tend to become more stable. Singapore and China, for me, are illustrative examples.

When we look at the empirical data, authoritarian regimes appear to be most vulnerable at intermediate levels of income. That is when they are more likely to collapse. By contrast, once they reach sufficiently high levels of income—and there are very few such cases—they seem more likely to endure.

At present, there is only one authoritarian regime with a per capita income comparable to that of most democracies, and that is Singapore. China, despite its significant development, has not yet reached that level. So, from this perspective, we still do not know with certainty whether authoritarian regimes are more likely to survive in developed contexts. However, the available empirical patterns suggest that they probably are.

Legitimacy Without Alternatives

You have critiqued formal models of authoritarianism for neglecting the quotidian practices of governance. How should scholars reconceptualize authoritarian stability to account for these routine, non-coercive dimensions of rule?

Professor Adam Przeworski: I have a particular view of legitimacy, which I spelled out many years ago. I think a regime is legitimate when people do not perceive organized alternatives. When you think about China, whatever else may be true, people simply do not see an alternative. More broadly, our regime preferences are, to a large extent, endogenous—endogenous in the sense that people living under particular regimes, unless those regimes are especially flagrant, tend to accept them. They accept them passively because they do not see much chance of changing them.

Someone living in the state of Iowa in the United States does not think, “What if the American system were like the Chinese one?” Similarly, someone living in Guangdong does not think, “What if our system were like the American one?” People live their everyday lives, and they do not perceive politically organized alternatives. That is simply the way things are.

When such alternatives do appear—when there is a genuinely organized democratic opposition—open conflict emerges, and some authoritarian regimes collapse. We saw this in the fall of the communist bloc, where regimes collapsed one after another.

Challenging the V-Dem Crisis Narrative

Recent V-Dem report findings indicate that a substantial majority of the world’s population now lives under authoritarian regimes, with autocracies outnumbering democracies. How should we interpret this reversal in light of your argument that democracy is historically contingent rather than teleologically progressive?

Professor Adam Przeworski: I think this claim is simply false. In a sense, I see V-Dem as a figment of the imagination. What does it really mean to say that a majority of the world’s population lives under authoritarian governments? How is that measured? I do not have much trust in V-Dem’s measurements of democracy. I think they seek media exposure by heralding crises of democracy. I do not believe there is a worldwide crisis of democracy, so I do not take this claim seriously. On the contrary, there are more democratic regimes—more democratic countries—in the world today than ever before. I am not referring to population, but to the number of countries.

Electorates Can Reverse Illiberal Drift

And finally, Professor Przeworski, recent political developments in countries such as Poland, Brazil, and—potentially—Hungary suggest that electorates can reverse authoritarian or illiberal trajectories through democratic means. To what extent do these cases support the view that democracy retains a self-correcting capacity, and what structural or institutional conditions are necessary for such reversals to succeed rather than produce only partial or fragile restorations?

Professor Adam Przeworski: You are right that what has happened in Brazil, Poland, and Hungary shows that democracies possess a kind of self-preserving capacity. When democracy is truly at stake, people are willing to set aside other values and preferences in order to defend it. There is something about the very possibility of choosing who governs us that constitutes an extraordinarily strong value, to which people remain deeply attached. The examples you cited illustrate this clearly. Attempts to usurp power through various means eventually encounter resistance. Small transgressions may be tolerated, but major violations of democratic rules are not.

Figure from the V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2026.

ECPS Symposium 2026: Reforming and Safeguarding Liberal Democracy — Systemic Crises, Populism, and Democratic Resilience

This collection distills the core insights of the ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium, offering a comprehensive and interdisciplinary assessment of contemporary democratic crisis. Bringing together leading scholars, the symposium interrogates how systemic pressures—ranging from populist mobilization and institutional erosion to algorithmic politics and global economic disruption—reshape the conditions of democratic governance. From the conceptual reframing of anti-pluralism to comparative regional analyses and structural accounts of strongman politics, the contributions collectively move beyond surface-level diagnosis. Instead, they advance a deeper understanding of democratic resilience as a multidimensional project grounded in institutional integrity, civic agency, social cohesion, and transnational cooperation, highlighting both the fragility and the enduring adaptive capacity of liberal democracy.

Compiled by ECPS Staff

This collected file brings together the reports of the ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium, Reforming and Safeguarding Liberal Democracy: Systemic Crises, Populism, and Democratic Resilience,” held online on April 21–22, 2026. Across two intellectually rich days, the symposium examined one of the defining political questions of our time: how liberal democracy can be defended, renewed, and reimagined amid accelerating autocratization, systemic crises, populist mobilization, and institutional fragility.

The symposium opened with remarks by Irina von Wiese, ECPS Honorary President, followed by a keynote lecture by Professor Staffan I. Lindberg, who situated the global crisis of democracy within the empirical findings of the V-Dem Democracy Report-2026 and foregrounded anti-pluralism as a central driver of contemporary autocratization. The first panel, “From Grievance to Radicalization,” explored how rhetoric, religion, humiliation, and international institutions shape the transformation of social discontent into exclusionary and anti-democratic politics. The second panel, “Institutions Under Pressure,” turned to courts, executive power, rule of law, bureaucratic autonomy, and coordinated democratic defense.

The third panel, “Normalizing Authoritarian Populism,” examined how authoritarian tendencies become embedded through institutional erosion, algorithmic media environments, and exclusionary political identities, while also considering multicultural nationalism as a democratic alternative. On the second day, Professor Richard Youngsdelivered a keynote on democratic resilience in Europe, assessing the EU’s emerging tools—such as the Democracy Shield, digital regulation, rule-of-law conditionality, civil society support, and participatory mechanisms—while emphasizing their uneven and incomplete character.

Panel 4, “Comparative Regional Pathways of Democratic Backsliding and Far-Right Mobilization,” widened the lens to Turkey, the United States, South Korea, East Asia, and Latin America, underscoring the need for conceptual precision and regional sensitivity. The final panel, “Democratic Resistance in a Hardening World,” addressed structural inequality, private power, neoliberal transformation, strongman politics, penal populism, and weaponized trade policy as core challenges to democratic legitimacy.

Overall, these reports offer a comprehensive scholarly record of a symposium that moved beyond diagnosis toward reflection on democratic renewal. They show that democratic resilience cannot depend on institutions alone; it also requires civic capacity, social trust, economic fairness, inclusive belonging, and transnational cooperation. This collection therefore stands as both an analytical resource and a call for sustained democratic imagination.

Keynote by Professor Staffan I. Lindberg: The Chicken-and-Egg Dilemma — Systemic Crises and the Rise of Populism

The opening session of the ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium offered a timely and intellectually rigorous entry point into one of the central dilemmas of contemporary politics: how liberal democracy can be defended, renewed, and reimagined amid systemic crisis and accelerating autocratization. Moderated by Professor Ibrahim Ozturk, the session combined normative urgency with empirical depth. In her opening remarks, Irina von Wiese underscored the geopolitical immediacy of democratic strain, while Professor Staffan I. Lindberg’s keynote, grounded in V-Dem data, traced the global scale of democratic erosion and challenged simplistic readings of populism by foregrounding anti-pluralism as a more precise analytical category. The discussion that followed further enriched the session, probing the measurement, lived experience, and reversibility of democratic decline across contexts.

Panel 1: From Grievance to Radicalization — Rhetoric, Ideology, and the International Politics of Populism

This panel offered a concise yet conceptually rich account of how contemporary populism transforms diffuse grievances into structured political radicalization. Bridging discourse analysis, religious studies, international political economy, and historical sociology, the discussion illuminated the multi-layered processes through which democratic erosion unfolds. Rather than locating the problem solely within institutional decline, the panel foregrounded the interplay of rhetoric, identity, and emotional mobilization—particularly the roles of humiliation, status anxiety, and perceived loss of recognition. Contributions by Professors Ruth Wodak, Julie Ingersoll, Stephan Klingebiel, and Benjamin Carter Hett collectively demonstrated that populist dynamics are sustained by both narrative construction and structural change. The session thus advanced a nuanced analytical framework for understanding how anti-pluralist politics emerge, normalize, and gain legitimacy across diverse contexts.

Panel 2: Institutions Under Pressure — Rule of Law, Executive Power, and Democratic Defense

Second panel of ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium examined how democracies confront coordinated pressures on courts, bureaucracies, electoral systems, and constitutional safeguards. Moderated by Yavuz Baydar, the session brought together Professor Susan C. Stokes, Dr. Robert Benson, Professor Barry Sullivan, and Professor Stephen E. Hanson to analyze both democratic erosion and possibilities for recovery. The panel moved from comparative evidence on how backsliding leaders leave office, to the transnational coordination of illiberal actors, the expansion of executive power under Trump’s second administration, and the patrimonial assault on rational-legal state institutions. Together, the speakers underscored that democratic defense requires coordinated resilience, institutional renewal, civic mobilization, and a renewed commitment to rule-bound governance.

Panel 3: Normalizing Authoritarian Populism — Institutions, Algorithms, and Fascist Drift

The third panel of the ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium examined how authoritarian populism becomes normalized across institutions, media ecosystems, and political identities. Bringing together perspectives from political science, media studies, and political theory, the session highlighted the interplay between executive overreach, institutional erosion, and algorithmically amplified communication. Contributions by Professor Larry Diamond and Professor Bruce Cain underscored the dynamics of democratic backsliding and “autocratic drift” within the United States, while Assoc. Prof. Ibrahim Al-Marashi demonstrated how AI-driven media and “slopaganda” reshape populist mobilization in a hyperreal digital environment. Concluding the panel, Professor Tariq Modood proposed multicultural nationalism as a unifying alternative to exclusionary populism. Collectively, the panel offered a multidimensional framework for understanding and resisting contemporary authoritarian trajectories.

Keynote by Prof. Richard Youngs: Democratic Resilience in Europe — Can It Be Effective?

Professor Richard Youngs’ keynote examined the European Union’s evolving response to democratic backsliding, populism, and institutional fragility. Professor Youngs argued that the EU has developed important tools—including the Democracy Shield, digital regulation, rule-of-law conditionality, civil society funding, and participatory mechanisms—but that its approach remains uneven and incomplete. He emphasized that democratic resilience must address not only external threats such as disinformation and foreign interference, but also internal dysfunctions, including weakened civic space, far-right normalization, migration politics, and democratic recovery after state capture. The ensuing discussion underscored the need for a more coherent and holistic EU strategy that effectively connects institutional reform, grassroots mobilization, and long-term democratic renewal across member states.

Panel 4: Comparative Regional Pathways of Democratic Backsliding and Far-Right Mobilization

Panel 4 of ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium examined democratic backsliding as a globally connected yet regionally differentiated phenomenon. Moderated by Professor Reinhard Heinisch, the session brought together comparative insights from Turkey, the United States, South Korea, East Asia, and Latin America. Professor Henri J. Barkey analyzed how personalistic leadership, institutional capture, and politicized law enable authoritarian consolidation in the cases of Trump and Erdoğan. Professor Hannes Mosler challenged the routine application of “populism” to East Asia, arguing that South Korea’s democratic erosion is better understood through far-right mobilization, historical revisionism, anti-feminism, and transnational networks. Professor María Esperanza-Casullo explored Latin American right-wing populism through narratives of grievance, hyper-masculinity, cultural antagonism, and elite collaboration, highlighting the need for conceptually precise and regionally sensitive democratic responses.

Panel 5: Democratic Resistance in a Hardening World — Civic Capacity, Strongmen, and Economic Coercion

Panel 5 of the ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium, moderated by Professor Jocelyne Cesari, offered a comprehensive examination of democratic resistance amid intensifying global pressures. Bringing together perspectives from political sociology, democratic theory, criminology, and international political economy, the panel illuminated how structural inequality, cultural backlash, institutional erosion, and coercive economic practices converge to sustain contemporary strongman politics. Contributions by Professor Jack A. Goldstone, Professor Steven Friedman, Professor John Pratt, and Professor Kent Jones underscored that democratic backsliding is not reducible to leadership alone but reflects deeper transformations in governance, legitimacy, and global order. The panel ultimately highlighted the urgent need to rethink democratic resilience beyond institutional safeguards toward structural and societal renewal.

Stop Trump Coalition march, Central London, United Kingdom, September 17, 2025. A protester holds a sign reading “No to fascists — Trump, Musk, Farage.” Photo: Ben Gingell.

ECPS Symposium 2026 / Panel 5: Democratic Resistance in a Hardening World — Civic Capacity, Strongmen, and Economic Coercion

Please cite as:
ECPS Staff. (2026). “ECPS Symposium 2026 / Panel 5: Democratic Resistance in a Hardening World — Civic Capacity, Strongmen, and Economic Coercion.” European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). April 28, 2026. https://doi.org/10.55271/rp00154

 

Panel 5 of the ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium, moderated by Professor Jocelyne Cesari, offered a comprehensive examination of democratic resistance amid intensifying global pressures. Bringing together perspectives from political sociology, democratic theory, criminology, and international political economy, the panel illuminated how structural inequality, cultural backlash, institutional erosion, and coercive economic practices converge to sustain contemporary strongman politics. Contributions by Professor Jack A. Goldstone, Professor Steven Friedman, Professor John Pratt, and Professor Kent Jones underscored that democratic backsliding is not reducible to leadership alone but reflects deeper transformations in governance, legitimacy, and global order. The panel ultimately highlighted the urgent need to rethink democratic resilience beyond institutional safeguards toward structural and societal renewal.

Reported by ECPS Staff

Panel 5, titled “Democratic Resistance in a Hardening World: Civic Capacity, Strongmen, and Economic Coercion,”concluded on April 22, 2026, the second day of the ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium, Reforming and Safeguarding Liberal Democracy: Systemic Crises, Populism, and Democratic Resilience.” Moderated by Professor Jocelyne Cesari, Professor and Chair of Religion and Politics at the University of Birmingham and Senior Fellow at Georgetown University’s Berkley Center, the panel examined the structural, ideological, institutional, and economic forces driving contemporary democratic erosion and the resurgence of strongman politics.

Professor Cesari’s moderation situated the panel within the symposium’s broader concern with democratic resilience under conditions of systemic crisis. The session brought together four distinguished scholars whose presentations approached the hardening global political environment from complementary disciplinary perspectives: historical sociology, political theory, criminology, and international political economy. Together, they explored how economic insecurity, democratic disillusionment, punitive politics, cultural backlash, and coercive trade policy have reshaped the terrain on which liberal democracy must now defend itself.

Professor Jack A. Goldstone, Virginia E. and John T. Hazel, Jr. Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University and Senior Fellow of the Mercatus Center, opened the panel with “Structural Pressures Behind Strongman Politics.”Professor Goldstone argued that the rise of authoritarian-populist leaders cannot be explained simply by demagoguery or declining democratic values. Rather, it reflects long-term structural pressures, including globalization, technological displacement, regional inequality, immigration surges, cultural diversification, fiscal stress, and declining confidence in mainstream institutions.

Professor Steven Friedman, Research Professor of Politics at the University of Johannesburg and former Director of the Centre for the Study of Democracy, followed with “Changing Democracy’s Address.” Professor Friedman challenged the assumption that contemporary democratic crises reflect a popular rejection of democracy itself. Instead, he argued that the dominant post-Cold War model of democracy has failed by neglecting private power and by presenting democracy as inherently Western, thereby weakening its legitimacy both in established democracies and across the Global South.

Professor John Pratt, Emeritus Professor of Criminology at Victoria University of Wellington, then presented “The Return of the Strong Men.” Professor Pratt traced the contemporary rise of populist strongmen to the neoliberal restructuring of the 1980s, the resulting legitimacy deficit, and the emergence of penal populism, anti-expert politics, enemy construction, and strongman promises of protection.

Professor Kent Jones, Professor Emeritus of International Economics at Babson College, concluded the presentations with “Weaponized Trade Policy: Tariffs, Industrial Policy, and the Future of Global Economic Governance.” Professor Jones analyzed how Trump’s populist trade agenda undermined the rules-based global trading system, transforming tariffs into instruments of executive power, coercion, and institutional destabilization.

Thıs, Panel 5 offered a wide-ranging account of democratic resistance in an era marked by structural insecurity, institutional erosion, and globalized authoritarian repertoires.

 

Professor Jack A. Goldstone: Structural Pressures Behind Strongman Politics

Professor Jack A. Goldstone, one of the world’s leading scholars of revolutions and social change, holds the Virginia E. and John T. Hazel, Jr. Chair in Public Policy at George Mason University. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center and Director of the Center for the Study of Social Change, Institutions and Policy (SCIP).

Professor Jack A. Goldstone’s presentation offered a structural account of the contemporary rise of strongman politics, situating it within long-term global transformations rather than attributing it to short-term political manipulation or individual leadership alone. Professor Goldstone began by emphasizing that authoritarian-populist leadership is now a genuinely global phenomenon, visible across the United States, Europe, Asia, and Latin America. This global spread, he argued, necessitates a shift in analytical focus: rather than concentrating solely on leaders or rhetoric, scholars and policymakers must examine the underlying structural pressures that have made such leadership politically viable and electorally successful.

Rejecting explanations that attribute democratic erosion to a simple decline in civic values or generational amnesia, Professor Goldstone noted that support for authoritarian-populist movements often comes disproportionately from older voters rather than younger cohorts. Nor, he argued, can the phenomenon be reduced to the manipulative success of demagogues. While acknowledging that leaders such as Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan have pursued personalistic and patrimonial forms of governance once in power, Professor Goldstone insisted that their ascent reflects genuine electoral demand for change. This demand, in turn, is rooted in structural transformations that have unfolded over several decades.

At the theoretical level, Professor Goldstone reaffirmed a key insight of modernization theory: rising prosperity and autonomy tend, over the long term, to foster demands for democratic accountability. However, he stressed that this trajectory is not linear. Periods of widespread anxiety and insecurity can reverse democratic inclinations, pushing citizens toward leaders who promise order, protection, and decisive action. Drawing historical parallels, Professor Goldstone suggested that the present moment resembles earlier waves of global instability, particularly the 1930s, when fear and uncertainty contributed to the erosion of democratic norms.

Structural Pressures Behind Strongman Politics

Professor Goldstone identified four principal structural pressures driving this contemporary wave. The first concerns the long-term economic transformations associated with globalization and technological change since the 1980s. These processes have disproportionately harmed working-class communities, particularly those dependent on manufacturing and mid-skill employment. While globalization generated aggregate economic gains, including lower consumer prices and expanded opportunities in high-skill service sectors, its benefits were unevenly distributed. Major metropolitan areas prospered, while rural and small-town regions experienced economic decline, reduced social mobility, and loss of status. Professor Goldstone highlighted the emergence of stark regional inequalities across countries, from the United States to Germany and the United Kingdom. These inequalities have been compounded by policy responses that prioritized corporate competitiveness—through deregulation, tax reductions, and the weakening of labor unions—over the protection of vulnerable communities. The result has been rising inequality, declining life prospects for many citizens, and a growing sense of economic insecurity.

The second structural pressure identified by Professor Goldstone relates to surges in immigration. While acknowledging that immigration can be economically beneficial and socially enriching, he argued that sudden and large-scale increases in migration generate widespread anxiety, even among populations that are generally supportive of immigration. These surges create perceptions of insecurity and loss of control, particularly when political elites fail to respond in ways that address public concerns. According to Professor Goldstone, elite discourse often emphasized tolerance and openness without adequately recognizing the psychological and social impact of rapid demographic change. This disconnect contributed to social tensions, anti-immigrant backlash, and growing distrust toward political elites.

A third factor concerns the broader increase in ethnic, cultural, and religious diversity. Professor Goldstone noted that diversification has been a global trend, but its political consequences vary depending on how it is managed. In many cases, right-wing actors have framed diversity as a threat to social cohesion and national identity. At the same time, Professor Goldstone argued that both progressive and conservative elites have struggled to respond effectively. In particular, he pointed to a widening cultural gap between elites and ordinary citizens, especially in relation to religion. Contrary to earlier expectations of secularization, religious identity remains a significant source of meaning and dignity for many individuals. Elite dismissiveness toward religious values, combined with policies perceived as privileging minorities, has fueled resentment and reinforced perceptions of cultural marginalization.

The fourth structural pressure identified by Professor Goldstone involves fiscal constraints and rising public debt. Increasing expenditures on pensions, healthcare, and interest payments have placed significant strain on government budgets. At the same time, political systems have struggled to address these challenges effectively, leading to persistent deficits and intensifying conflicts over resource allocation. According to Professor Goldstone, this fiscal environment has contributed to perceptions of governmental inefficiency and corruption, further eroding public trust in democratic institutions.

Erosion of Trust and the Rise of Populism

Taken together, these structural developments have produced a broad-based decline in confidence in political institutions, mainstream parties, and traditional media. This erosion of trust creates fertile ground for outsider candidates and anti-establishment movements. Professor Goldstone addressed the question of why this discontent has more often translated into right-wing rather than left-wing populism. While acknowledging the presence of left-wing populist movements, he argued that right-wing actors have been more effective in directing public anger toward cultural, intellectual, and political elites, rather than toward economic elites alone. In the current context, many citizens perceive professional and globalist elites as more directly responsible for their grievances than corporate actors.

Professor Goldstone also questioned the adequacy of the concept of “democratic backsliding” in describing recent developments, particularly in long-established democracies. In the case of the United States, he suggested that current dynamics more closely resemble a form of political transformation akin to a revolutionary shift, in which longstanding democratic arrangements are being fundamentally challenged. This perspective underscores the depth of the crisis and the extent of institutional change underway.

Despite this diagnosis, Professor Goldstone rejected the notion that such developments are inevitable or irreversible. Drawing on historical experience, he emphasized that periods of democratic erosion can be countered and reversed. However, he cautioned that removing individual leaders from power is insufficient. Lasting democratic recovery requires addressing the structural conditions that generated widespread discontent in the first place. This includes restoring social mobility, reducing inequality, strengthening public goods provision, and rebuilding trust in political institutions.

Professor Goldstone argued that democratic resilience ultimately depends on the ability of political systems to respond effectively to citizens’ concerns. Policies perceived as favoring corporate interests over workers, or prioritizing minority groups at the expense of broader societal cohesion, risk further undermining public confidence. Conversely, political strategies that focus on widely shared concerns—such as economic security, affordability, and corruption—may help rebuild support for democratic governance.

In his concluding remarks, Professor Goldstone emphasized that the current crisis reflects not only political failures but also deeper misjudgments by global elites in the post-Cold War era. The assumption that economic growth and globalization alone would ensure social and political stability proved misguided. By neglecting issues such as inequality, cultural identity, and social cohesion, elites contributed to the conditions that have enabled the rise of authoritarian-populist movements. Addressing these structural imbalances, Professor Goldstone concluded, is essential for restoring democratic legitimacy and resilience in the years ahead.

 

Professor Steven Friedman: Changing Democracy’s Address

Professor Steven Friedman.
Steven Friedman is Research Professor of Politics, University of Johannesburg; former Director, Centre for the Study of Democracy.

 

Professor Steven Friedman’s presentation offered a critical reflection on the contemporary crisis of democracy from the vantage point of South Africa and the Global South. He situated his remarks within his own experience of having lived under an undemocratic system before South Africa’s democratic transition in the mid-1990s. That transition occurred during the height of the global democratization wave and was accompanied by considerable optimism about the possibilities of democratic renewal. For Professor Friedman, the ideas associated with transition-to-democracy scholarship were deeply inspiring because they appeared to offer a way out of authoritarian rule. Yet, three decades later, he argued, the democratic model that generated such hope is itself in crisis.

Professor Friedman framed his central argument around the collapse of the particular model of democracy that became dominant in the 1990s. He stressed that the current moment should not be understood as a wholesale rejection of democracy itself. Rather, many citizens are rejecting a specific model of democracy that has failed to constrain certain forms of power and has presented democracy as essentially Western. This distinction, for Professor Friedman, is crucial: the problem is not democracy as such, but the limitations of the version of democracy that was globalized after the Cold War.

To illustrate the changing democratic landscape, Professor Friedman recounted an anecdote from his own academic experience. After publishing a book on Jewish identity and Palestine-related issues, he was invited by colleagues in Germany to present his work. Shortly before the seminar, he was informed that several colleagues would not participate because they feared losing their jobs if they joined the discussion. Others were prepared to attend but unwilling to ask questions for the same reason. Professor Friedman found this striking, given that he had once lived in a country without freedom of speech and had envied countries where open debate was possible. He now found himself in a South Africa where he felt able to speak freely, while European colleagues appeared increasingly constrained. This anecdote served as an entry point into his broader argument about the erosion of democratic freedoms in established democracies.

The Failure to Constrain Private Power

Professor Friedman challenged the common explanation that contemporary authoritarian-populist advances reflect majorities turning against democracy. He argued that this claim does not withstand empirical scrutiny. Donald Trump, he noted, was elected with approximately 31 percent of the voting-age population. If 69 percent did not vote for him, the key question is not why the majority chose authoritarianism, but why a minority was able to impose itself politically. Professor Friedman extended this point comparatively, observing that anti-democratic right-wing parties often do not win majority support. Even Narendra Modi, at the height of his power, secured a parliamentary majority with 42 percent of the vote. The problem, therefore, is not necessarily that majorities have embraced authoritarianism, but that minority forces are being enabled to dominate political systems, sometimes because majorities withdraw or disengage.

Professor Friedman attributed this disengagement to two core conditions embedded in the dominant post-1990s model of democracy. The first is the failure to democratize private power. In the prevailing model, democracy is understood mainly as a relationship between government and citizens: public power is held accountable by citizens, while citizens are assumed to be powerless political equals. Yet Professor Friedman argued that this conception ignores the reality that some citizens possess immense private power. Figures such as Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg cannot plausibly be understood simply as powerless citizens trying to hold government to account. They exercise power over others and shape public life in profound ways. A workable democratic model, Professor Friedman argued, must therefore constrain private power just as it constrains public power.

According to Professor Friedman, the 1990s model largely excluded this dimension. It coincided with a broader hollowing out of democracy in older Western democracies, where parties that had previously constrained private power increasingly stopped doing so. He cited the Clinton administration in the United States and New Labour under Tony Blair in the United Kingdom as examples of this shift. The postwar idea that government should ensure private power remained accountable to citizens gradually eroded. Whether theory followed practice or practice followed theory, Professor Friedman argued, the result was the same: democracy became less capable of meeting people’s needs.

This failure, he suggested, helps explain political disengagement. When citizens find that voting does not change their material conditions, labor market exclusion, or exposure to economic insecurity, they lose motivation to participate. Professor Friedman referred to research suggesting that Trump’s 2024 victory was shaped not only by active support but by the fact that millions who had voted against him in 2020 did not vote against him in 2024. He also noted evidence that Democratic candidates who challenged private power—by addressing high prices, exploitation, and unfair commercial practices—performed significantly better than those who did not. For Professor Friedman, this indicates that democratic renewal requires confronting private power within a liberal democratic framework. He emphasized that constraining private power is not contrary to liberal democracy; rather, it is integral to it when done within the rule of law.

Democracy as a Western Construct: A Contested Assumption

The second condition Professor Friedman identified is the assumption that democracy is inherently Western. He argued that the post-Cold War model often presented democracy as a gift from the West to the rest of the world. While this was rarely stated crudely, it was embedded in scholarly and policy frameworks, particularly in democratic consolidation theory. In his view, such approaches often asked not whether democracies were genuine or durable, but whether they were “Western enough.” This assumption has had damaging consequences, especially in the Global South.

Professor Friedman illustrated this through African debates in which anti-Western actors reject democracy precisely because they view it as Western. He referred to military coups in West Africa, where opposition to French influence has been linked to claims that democracy itself is a Western imposition. In Burkina Faso, he noted, the country’s leader recently dismissed democracy as unsuitable because it is allegedly Western. For Professor Friedman, those who defend democracy in Africa are not helped when Western scholars and policymakers reproduce the same assumption that democracy belongs to the West.

Professor Friedman connected this issue to multiculturalism in Western democracies. He argued that Western elites have struggled to adjust to multicultural realities partly because of an underlying assumption that democracy is culturally Western and that too much non-Western participation creates a problem. This, he suggested, can be empirically demonstrated in debates over immigration, rights, and citizenship.

The Palestine issue, for Professor Friedman, brings together both failures: the inability to constrain private power and the Westernization of democracy. He argued that Palestine has become a core democratic issue in established democracies for two reasons. First, support by Western elites for Israeli state actions in Palestine has provided a rationale for the retrenchment of democratic rights, including restrictions on protest, academic freedom, freedom of speech, and freedom to organize. Second, Palestine reveals a widening gap between citizens and elites. Polls after October 7, 2023, showed significant majorities in many established democracies supporting a ceasefire and an end to violence, yet political leadership often ignored these preferences. Professor Friedman suggested that one reason for this gap is the failure to constrain private power: politicians become more responsive to those with money than to those who vote for them.

Elite Responsibility and the Rightward Drift

Professor Friedman also rejected the tendency to blame ordinary citizens for democratic erosion. He argued that much of the responsibility lies with elites, especially the movement of the democratic center and conservative parties toward the right. In several countries, the traditional alternation between center-left and democratic center-right has weakened because the center-right itself has shifted or collapsed. He cited the United Kingdom, where the political choice increasingly appears to be between Labour and Reform, and France, where the alternative to Macron is no longer a Gaullist democratic right but the far right. This, he suggested, echoes the 1930s, when democratic collapse was substantially an elite failure rather than simply a popular one.

In the final section of his presentation, Professor Friedman developed the metaphor of democracy’s “change of address.” For those outside the West, he argued, the assumption that democracy is inherently Western has lost credibility. The future of democracy can no longer be understood as something decided primarily in the West. This does not mean that Global South democracies are all healthy or that Western democracies are uniformly failing. Rather, because democratic crisis is global, the idea of the West as democracy’s natural beacon has become untenable.

Professor Friedman concluded by calling for a renewed understanding of democracy grounded in its intrinsic value rather than its association with Western modernity, prosperity, or sophistication. Democracy should be embraced because people everywhere desire a share in the choices that affect their lives and because they value the freedoms that make such participation possible. For Professor Friedman, the task facing democratic actors in South Africa, the Global South, and beyond is to defend democracy not as a Western import, but as the most desirable form of social organization yet invented.


Professor Kent Jones: Weaponized Trade Policy — Tariffs, Industrial Policy, and the Future of Global Economic Governance 

Kent Jones is Professor Emeritus of International Economics at Babson College and author of Populism and Trade: The Challenge to the Global Trading System.

Professor Kent Jones’ presentation offered a focused analysis of the relationship between populism, trade policy, and the destabilization of the global trading system under President Donald Trump. Speaking as a trade economist rather than a specialist in populism, Professor Jones explained that his interest in the subject emerged after Trump’s first term, when it became clear that populist politics had become deeply entangled with trade conflict and institutional disruption.

Professor Jones argued that the Trump case represents a special and highly consequential form of populism: one in which a populist leader was uniquely positioned to undermine the institutional foundations of the global trading order. This was possible because the United States had historically been the principal architect, champion, and guarantor of that system. Under Trump, however, the same country that once sustained multilateral trade rules became the central force weakening them.

Populist Narratives and the Politicization of Trade

Professor Jones began by noting that Trump’s populist rhetoric consistently exploited the division between “the people” and “elites.” In the trade context, this meant portraying globalization as a project controlled by foreign and domestic elites at the expense of ordinary Americans. Trump linked trade anxiety to other grievances, especially immigration, presenting both imports and migrants as forms of external invasion. In this narrative, trade deficits became evidence that foreign countries were “cheating” the United States and extracting American wealth.

As an economist, Professor Jones rejected this framing, emphasizing that imports are not exploitation but voluntary exchanges that provide value to consumers and support economic growth. Yet he argued that Trump successfully transformed trade into a populist grievance by presenting imports as part of what Professor Jones described as a “trade-driven replacement theory.” Much like cultural replacement narratives, this economic version encouraged fear that globalization was displacing American workers, industries, and communities.

Professor Jones then distinguished between Trump’s first and second terms. During the first term, several institutional guardrails still constrained trade policy, including WTO rules, negotiated tariff commitments, NAFTA, and domestic trade law. Trump pursued a more aggressive version of traditional trade remedies, such as anti-dumping and countervailing duty cases, but generally operated within recognizable legal frameworks.

However, Professor Jones identified Trump’s first major attack on the global trading system in his use of the national security clause under Article XXI of the GATT. By claiming that lower employment and reduced output in certain industries constituted a national security emergency, Trump used a rarely invoked exception to justify unilateral trade restrictions. For Professor Jones, this exposed a major weakness in the WTO system: once a country defines an issue as a national security concern, it becomes difficult to challenge through dispute settlement. This opened the door for abuse, since any country could potentially invoke national security to justify protectionist measures.

Trump’s second term, in Professor Jones’ account, marked a far more radical phase. Trump became convinced that he could remove the remaining guardrails and assert near-total presidential control over tariffs. Professor Jones emphasized that Trump had long been fascinated by tariffs, dating back to his public statements in the 1980s about Japanese automobile imports. In office, this fascination merged with a broader drive to expand executive power and bypass institutional constraints.

Tariffs as Instruments of Discretionary Power

A key turning point came with the “Liberation Day” tariffs announced on April 2 of the previous year. These were justified through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, based on Trump’s claim that trade deficits constituted an emergency caused by foreign cheating. Professor Jones described the tariff formula used to justify these measures as economically nonsensical. Nevertheless, it enabled the president to impose tariffs of any level, against any country, for any duration.

For Professor Jones, this amounted to a fundamental violation of the core principles of the GATT and WTO system. It undermined non-discrimination by imposing different tariff rates on different countries, ignored binding tariff commitments, and weakened the dispute settlement framework. Trump also used tariffs as leverage to pressure countries into bilateral trade deals, including with the European Union, demanding preferential access for American goods while maintaining US tariffs on European products.

This strategy, Professor Jones argued, effectively gave Trump control over the global trading system insofar as countries traded with the United States. It also generated anger among long-standing American partners that had previously relied on stable, rules-based access to US markets. Average US tariffs, once around 2–3 percent, rose dramatically to roughly 18–19 percent, creating both direct costs and deep uncertainty for businesses and governments.

Professor Jones described this as a “dictatorship of the tariff.” Trump reserved the right to alter tariffs at will, often in response to personal reactions or political moods. This unpredictability, he argued, reflected the autocratic dimension of Trump’s trade policy: tariffs became not merely economic tools but instruments of discretionary presidential power.

A central populist myth in Trump’s trade policy, Professor Jones noted, was the repeated claim that tariffs are paid by foreigners. This claim, despite being economically false, remained politically useful because it allowed Trump to present tariffs as costless punishment of foreign actors. Yet the economic consequences became increasingly visible, including higher costs, uncertainty, and failure to revive US manufacturing and employment as promised.

Patrimonialism and the Politicization of Trade Governance

Professor Jones connected these developments to Max Weber’s concept of patrimonialism. In Trump’s administration, loyalty often outweighed competence, producing corruption, administrative weakness, and policy failure. The tariff regime itself, he argued, was poorly managed and increasingly vulnerable to legal challenge. The Supreme Court’s decision overturning the Liberation Day tariffs provided an important legal backstop, demonstrating that constitutional and judicial limits still retained some force.

Yet Professor Jones warned that Trump responded by attempting to revive his tariff agenda through other legal mechanisms, particularly Section 301. This would enable new tariff measures based on alleged violations of trade practice, including forced labor content in global trade. Professor Jones emphasized the irony that such accusations could apply broadly, including to the United States itself, but would be used selectively to punish other countries. Europe, he noted, was especially concerned about this new route to expanded presidential tariff power.

In the final part of his presentation, Professor Jones turned to the future of the global trading system. He argued that the United States has forfeited its leadership role. This creates a profound challenge because the postwar trading system depended heavily on American hegemonic leadership: an open US market, a deep financial system, and the dollar’s role as a reserve currency helped stabilize global trade and finance.

The question now, according to Professor Jones, is whether the European Union or another coalition of countries can assume leadership. He expressed doubt that any actor can easily replace the United States, while also stressing that the rest of the world still appears committed to preserving a rules-based trading system.

Professor Jones concluded by identifying the need for WTO reform. The existing system, especially its consensus rule and single-undertaking model for multilateral agreements, has become increasingly difficult to sustain. Populism has intensified these challenges by turning globalization into a highly charged political issue. For Professor Jones, the central task is therefore not only to repair trade institutions, but also to understand how populist grievances have transformed trade from a technical policy domain into a battlefield over sovereignty, identity, and democratic authority.

 

Professor John Pratt: The Return of the Strong Men

Professor John Pratt.
John Pratt is Emeritus Professor of Criminology, Victoria University of Wellington.

 

Professor John Pratt’s presentation offered a historically grounded and theoretically rich account of the contemporary rise of populist strongmen, situating this development within the long-term transformation of democratic societies. Professor Pratt began by invoking a striking 1961 opinion poll in the United Kingdom, which found that 91 percent of young respondents believed the world would be a better place within a decade. For Professor Pratt, this optimism was not naïve but reflective of a broader post-war democratic settlement characterized by economic security, institutional trust, and a shared belief in progressive improvement.

This post-war order, as Professor Pratt outlined, was built on a combination of full employment policies, expansive welfare states, large public sectors, and significant investment in science and expertise. Governments were also committed to protecting citizens from abuses of state power, particularly in response to the lessons of totalitarian regimes such as Nazi Germany. These commitments were institutionalized through criminal justice reforms that limited the punitive capacity of the state and elevated the role of academic experts in shaping public policy. In this context, demagogues of the interwar period were widely believed to have been relegated permanently to history.

Neoliberal Transformation and the Rise of “Casino Economies”

Professor Pratt then posed the central question of his presentation: how did societies move from this optimistic and relatively stable democratic moment to the present resurgence of strongman politics? His answer centered on the transformative impact of neoliberal restructuring beginning in the 1980s. According to Professor Pratt, this shift fundamentally altered the economic and social foundations of democratic life, particularly in Anglo-American societies. The transition toward deregulated, market-driven economies created what he described as “casino economies,” in which the distribution of benefits became highly uneven. While some individuals and sectors thrived, many more experienced declining security, reduced opportunities, and a sense of marginalization.

This growing precarity, Professor Pratt argued, generated a profound legitimacy deficit between governments and their electorates. Citizens increasingly felt that democratic institutions were no longer responsive to their needs or capable of ensuring stable and predictable lives. In response, governments sought to restore their authority and credibility through a turn toward punitive governance, most notably through “tough on crime” policies. These policies represented an early manifestation of contemporary populism, as political leaders attempted to demonstrate responsiveness to public anxieties by targeting crime as a visible and emotionally resonant threat.

However, as Professor Pratt emphasized, this turn to penal populism did not resolve the underlying legitimacy crisis. Instead, it contributed to dramatic increases in imprisonment, particularly in Anglo-American democracies from the 1990s onward, while failing to restore public trust. The persistence of economic insecurity and social fragmentation ensured that populist sentiment continued to grow. This process was further intensified by two major developments: the global financial crisis of 2008, which deepened existing inequalities, and rising hostility toward immigration, particularly following increased mobility from Eastern Europe after the end of the Cold War.

Within this context, Professor Pratt identified four core themes that define contemporary populist discourse. The first is a commitment to destroying the establishment, often expressed through hostility toward experts, scientists, and technocratic governance. Populist leaders frame the establishment as corrupt and detached, responsible for the insecurities faced by ordinary citizens. In this framework, the strongman leader presents himself as possessing intuitive or innate knowledge that renders expert advice unnecessary.

Restoring Dignity Through Strongman Protection

The second theme is the systematic targeting of critical voices, particularly in the media and political opposition. Professor Pratt noted that in some cases, such as Hungary, this strategy has been largely successful, while in others, including the United States, it remains an ongoing project. By delegitimizing independent sources of information and critique, populist leaders seek to consolidate control over public discourse.

The third theme involves the construction and expansion of “enemies of the people.” Professor Pratt stressed that such enemies are essential to populist politics, as they justify the existence and authority of the strongman. Initially, these enemies were framed as criminals or individuals perceived as threatening public order, such as beggars and the homeless. Over time, however, the category has expanded to include immigrants, asylum seekers, political opponents, and various minority groups. This dynamic reinforces a narrative of constant threat, requiring strong leadership for protection.

The fourth theme is the promise to defend and restore the dignity of “the people,” understood as victims of both crime and broader social change. Populist leaders position themselves as protectors not only against physical threats but also against cultural and demographic transformations perceived as destabilizing. Professor Pratt highlighted how Donald Trump has extended this logic by presenting himself as a victim of institutional persecution, thereby aligning his personal narrative with that of his supporters.

Turning to the consequences of these dynamics, Professor Pratt offered a critical assessment of populist governance. He argued that key populist projects, such as Brexit, have failed to address the grievances that fueled their emergence. Instead of resolving social tensions, they have often exacerbated uncertainty and division. At the same time, Professor Pratt observed signs of democratic resilience, including electoral pushback against populist movements in parts of Europe.

In the case of the United States, Professor Pratt expressed concern about the potential trajectory of Trump’s leadership, particularly in light of suggestions that he might seek to extend his tenure beyond constitutional limits. Such a development, he argued, would represent a profound departure from democratic norms, challenging the very foundations of constitutional governance. This scenario would invert the optimistic vision of democratic consolidation articulated by Francis Fukuyama at the end of the Cold War.

Limits and Contradictions of Strongman Populism

Despite these concerns, Professor Pratt concluded on a cautiously optimistic note. He suggested that the internal contradictions of strongman populism—its reliance on charismatic authority, its policy failures, and its inability to deliver on its promises—may ultimately undermine its durability. In his view, Trump’s political success has depended heavily on personal charisma, which is unlikely to be replicated by potential successors who lack comparable appeal.

As a result, Professor Pratt argued that democratic systems may experience a form of reprieve once the current wave of populist leadership subsides. However, he emphasized that such a reprieve should not be mistaken for a return to the stable and optimistic conditions of the post-war era. The structural conditions that gave rise to populism—particularly economic precarity and the erosion of institutional trust—remain in place.

For Professor Pratt, the central lesson is that democracy’s resilience depends on its capacity to maintain legitimacy in the eyes of its citizens. If the legitimacy deficit that emerged during the neoliberal era is allowed to persist or deepen, democratic institutions will remain vulnerable to future populist challenges. The task, therefore, is not merely to resist individual strongmen but to address the underlying conditions that make their rise possible.

 

Discussions

Professor Jocelyne Cesari.
Jocelyne Cesari is Professor and Chair of Religion and Politics and Director of Research at the Edward Cadbury Centre for the Public Understanding of Religion at the University of Birmingham, and Senior Fellow at Georgetown University’s Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs.

 

The discussion session of the fifth panel brought together the central analytical threads of the preceding presentations and situated them within a broader comparative and theoretical framework. Modearor Professor Jocelyne Cesari opened the discussion by offering a synthetic assessment of the panel’s contributions, emphasizing that the diversity of disciplinary approaches reflected the current state of scholarship on democratic backsliding, authoritarianism, and populism. Professor Cesari identified several major explanatory frameworks that have emerged in the literature and were echoed in the panel’s presentations, while also pointing to key gaps and tensions within these approaches.

Professor Cesari first underscored the importance of structural economic transformations, particularly those associated with neoliberal restructuring. Drawing attention to themes raised by Professor John Pratt, Professor Cesari noted that the dualization of labor markets, regional economic decline, and the concentration of wealth have produced a growing imbalance within societies. This imbalance is not merely a matter of generalized impoverishment but rather reflects a widening divergence between those who benefit from globalized economic structures and those who experience diminished opportunities. Professor Cesari emphasized that this structural divergence constitutes a critical background condition for contemporary political discontent. However, she also cautioned against overly deterministic interpretations, noting that existing scholarship does not support a direct causal relationship between inequality and authoritarianism. Instead, economic grievances operate within a more complex constellation of political and cultural dynamics.

Hybrid Regimes and the Erosion of Democratic Standards

Building on this point, Professor Cesari introduced a second analytical perspective centered on cultural backlash. While not always explicitly foregrounded in the panel, she argued that several presentations implicitly engaged with this framework. Drawing on influential empirical studies, Professor Cesari highlighted that political mobilization is often driven less by material deprivation per se than by perceptions of status loss and cultural displacement. In this context, feelings of resentment, moral injury, and loss of social centrality can become powerful drivers of political behavior, even in cases where objective economic conditions are not the sole determinant. Professor Cesari suggested that this dimension is essential for understanding why populist movements are able to mobilize diverse constituencies across different socioeconomic contexts.

Professor Cesari then situated these dynamics within a broader historical trajectory, emphasizing the transformation of the global political order since the end of the Cold War. She noted that the post-Cold War period was marked by a widespread sense of optimism, encapsulated in narratives such as the “end of history,” which posited the universalization of liberal democracy as both inevitable and desirable. However, Professor Cesari argued that the current moment represents a profound backlash against this earlier consensus. The limitations and contradictions of the neoliberal order have become increasingly visible, yet traditional political actors, including mainstream parties and institutional elites, have largely failed to address these shortcomings. In contrast, populist leaders and, notably, religious actors have been more effective in articulating critiques of inequality, dignity, and redistribution. Professor Cesari emphasized that the political appeal of religious discourse in this context should not be dismissed as merely emotional or irrational, but rather understood as a response to perceived deficiencies in the prevailing economic and political order.

Turning to the nature of contemporary authoritarianism, Professor Cesari challenged conventional dichotomies between democracy and dictatorship. She argued that the current wave of democratic backsliding differs fundamentally from earlier historical experiences. Unlike the overtly coercive regimes of the twentieth century, contemporary authoritarian leaders operate within formally democratic frameworks. Elections remain central to their legitimacy, yet electoral competition alone is no longer a sufficient criterion for democratic quality. Professor Cesari pointed to additional dimensions, including elite turnover, redistribution, and the protection of civil liberties, as essential components of democratic governance. In many cases, these dimensions are being eroded not only by overtly authoritarian actors but also by mainstream political forces.

Personalized Leadership in the Digital Age

Professor Cesari further emphasized that contemporary authoritarianism is characterized less by abrupt institutional rupture than by gradual erosion and reorientation of existing institutions. Leaders such as those referenced throughout the panel—including figures in Turkey, India, and Hungary—operate within democratic systems while systematically reshaping them to consolidate power. This process is often accompanied by a shift away from comprehensive ideological frameworks toward more flexible, context-specific forms of populism. In this regard, Professor Cesari highlighted the concept of “thin” ideology, which allows populist movements to adapt to local cultural and social contexts. Religion, in particular, emerges as a key resource in this process, providing a readily available framework for articulating collective identity and political legitimacy.

Another significant transformation identified by Professor Cesari concerns the increasing personalization of political leadership. While charismatic authority has long been a feature of authoritarian regimes, its contemporary manifestations are amplified by the dynamics of the digital media environment. The proliferation of social media and continuous information flows has shifted political communication from traditional propaganda to interactive spectacle. Leaders are required to maintain a constant presence, with style and performance becoming as important as substantive policy content. This transformation, Professor Cesari suggested, has not yet been fully incorporated into existing analytical frameworks, despite its centrality to contemporary political dynamics.

In synthesizing these observations, Professor Cesari concluded that the current global landscape is best understood in terms of “hybrid” regimes, rather than a simple opposition between democracy and authoritarianism. Drawing on comparative insights, she argued that even established Western democracies exhibit significant deficiencies across key dimensions, including electoral participation, redistribution, and civil liberties. These shortcomings contribute to the broader legitimacy crisis that underpins the rise of populist and authoritarian actors. For Professor Cesari, a more productive analytical approach requires a systematic reassessment of democratic performance across multiple dimensions, rather than reliance on idealized models.

Competitive Authoritarianism and Limited Legitimacy

Following this comprehensive synthesis, Professor Jack Goldstone offered a response that introduced a more cautiously optimistic perspective. Professor Goldstone agreed that contemporary regimes are best characterized as competitive authoritarian systems, in which electoral processes remain meaningful, albeit constrained. He emphasized that support for authoritarian leaders typically constitutes a minority of the electorate, often ranging between one-quarter and one-third. This core base is driven by deep resentment toward perceived elite betrayal and seeks transformative leadership capable of disrupting existing institutions.

However, Professor Goldstone highlighted the importance of a broader group of “middling” or swing voters, whose support is more contingent and instrumental. These voters may support authoritarian-leaning leaders not out of ideological commitment but as a response to perceived failures of incumbent governments, particularly in areas such as economic inequality, immigration, and inflation. Crucially, this group remains open to shifting its support, as evidenced by electoral volatility in recent years. For Professor Goldstone, this dynamic suggests that authoritarian leaders remain vulnerable to electoral defeat if they fail to deliver on their promises. In this sense, the persistence of electoral competition provides a potential mechanism for democratic correction, even within constrained systems.

The discussion then moved to a question posed by ECPS-ECRN member Yacine Boubia, which addressed the puzzling tendency for individuals experiencing economic hardship to direct their grievances toward political and cultural elites rather than economic elites. Professor Goldstone responded by emphasizing the role of perception in shaping political attribution. According to Professor Goldstone, many individuals view economic competition as a legitimate “game” in which success is admired rather than resented. As a result, those who succeed within this framework, including wealthy economic actors, are often not perceived as responsible for inequality. Instead, blame is directed toward those who are seen as setting the rules of the game—namely governments and political elites.

Professor Goldstone further noted that this attribution dynamic is reinforced by the narratives advanced by right-wing populists, who emphasize themes such as immigration, globalization, and cultural change. These narratives provide clear and emotionally resonant targets for political mobilization, whereas critiques of economic elites are often less salient or more difficult to translate into effective political messaging. Consequently, left-wing populist movements have generally been less successful in directing public attention toward structural economic inequalities, despite the objective significance of these issues.

The discussion concluded with closing remarks by Professor Ibrahim Öztürk, who formally ended the panel and the broader symposium. The exchanges during the discussion session underscored the complexity of contemporary democratic challenges, highlighting the interplay between structural economic conditions, cultural dynamics, institutional transformations, and evolving forms of political communication. Collectively, the contributions of Professor Cesari and Professor Goldstone, along with the audience engagement, reinforced the need for multidimensional analytical frameworks capable of capturing the hybrid and evolving nature of modern political regimes.


Conclusion

Panel 5 illuminated the multidimensional nature of contemporary democratic crisis, underscoring that the resilience of liberal democracy cannot be secured through institutional defense alone, but requires a deeper engagement with the structural, cultural, and political transformations reshaping societies. Across the presentations, a common thread emerged: the erosion of democratic legitimacy is rooted not merely in the rise of charismatic strongmen, but in long-term shifts that have weakened the social and normative foundations of democratic governance.

Professor Jack A. Goldstone’s structural analysis highlighted how globalization, inequality, and demographic change have generated enduring pressures that fuel demand for authoritarian-populist leadership. Complementing this, Professor Steven Friedman’s critique of the post-Cold War democratic model exposed the failure to regulate private power and the limitations of framing democracy as a Western construct, both of which have undermined its global credibility. Professor John Pratt’s historical perspective further demonstrated how neoliberal restructuring has produced a legitimacy deficit that populist leaders exploit through punitive, anti-establishment, and exclusionary narratives. Meanwhile, Professor Kent Jones’s examination of trade policy revealed how economic governance itself has become a terrain of populist contestation, with significant implications for the stability of the global order.

The discussion, guided by Professor Jocelyne Cesari, reinforced the need to move beyond binary understandings of democracy versus authoritarianism and to recognize the prevalence of hybrid regimes characterized by gradual institutional erosion, personalization of power, and the strategic mobilization of cultural and economic grievances. At the same time, Professor Goldstone’s intervention suggested that democratic systems retain mechanisms of correction, particularly through electoral competition and the volatility of “middling” voters.

Ultimately, the panel underscored that democratic resistance must be grounded in restoring legitimacy—through addressing inequality, rebuilding trust, regulating power, and reimagining democratic inclusion in a global context. Without confronting these underlying conditions, liberal democracy will remain vulnerable to recurring waves of populist challenge.

Photo: Iryna Kushnarova.

ECPS Symposium 2026 / Panel 4: Comparative Regional Pathways of Democratic Backsliding and Far-Right Mobilization

Please cite as:
ECPS Staff. (2026). “ECPS Symposium 2026 / Panel 4: Comparative Regional Pathways of Democratic Backsliding and Far-Right Mobilization.” European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). April 28, 2026.https://doi.org/10.55271/rp00153

 

Panel 4 of ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium examined democratic backsliding as a globally connected yet regionally differentiated phenomenon. Moderated by Professor Reinhard Heinisch, the session brought together comparative insights from Turkey, the United States, South Korea, East Asia, and Latin America. Professor Henri J. Barkey analyzed how personalistic leadership, institutional capture, and politicized law enable authoritarian consolidation in the cases of Trump and Erdoğan. Professor Hannes Mosler challenged the routine application of “populism” to East Asia, arguing that South Korea’s democratic erosion is better understood through far-right mobilization, historical revisionism, anti-feminism, and transnational networks. Professor María Esperanza-Casullo explored Latin American right-wing populism through narratives of grievance, hyper-masculinity, cultural antagonism, and elite collaboration, highlighting the need for conceptually precise and regionally sensitive democratic responses.

Reported by ECPS Staff

Panel 4 of the ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium, Reforming and Safeguarding Liberal Democracy: Systemic Crises, Populism, and Democratic Resilience,” convened on April 22, 2026, under the title “Comparative Regional Pathways of Democratic Backsliding and Far-Right Mobilization.” Moderated by Professor Reinhard Heinisch, Professor of Comparative Austrian Politics at the University of Salzburg, the panel examined how democratic backsliding and far-right mobilization unfold across distinct regional contexts, while also interrogating the conceptual vocabularies through which these phenomena are analyzed.

Professor Heinisch framed the panel around a central comparative premise: while democratic backsliding appears as a broadly shared global trend, its manifestations differ significantly across regions. He emphasized that regional variation concerns not only what is empirically observed, but also how scholars conceptualize and interpret developments such as populism, far-right politics, authoritarianism, and democratic erosion. His moderation therefore situated the panel as both an empirical and conceptual inquiry into the regional pathways through which democratic systems come under pressure.

The panel brought together distinguished scholars working on different geographical and theoretical terrains. Professor Henri J. Barkey, Cohen Professor of International Relations Emeritus at Lehigh University, opened with “Building an Authoritarian Edifice Step-By-Step,” offering a comparative analysis of Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Professor Barkey explored how personalistic leadership, institutional capture, attacks on expertise, and the politicization of law contribute to the gradual construction of authoritarian power.

Professor Hannes B. Mosler, Professor at Universität Duisburg-Essen’s Institute of Political Science and affiliated with the Institute of East Asian Studies (IN-EAST), shifted the focus to East Asia in “Populism and Transnational Ties of the Far Right in East Asia: Recent Developments in South Korea.” Professor Mosler questioned the applicability of populism as an analytical category in East Asia and argued that South Korea’s democratic challenges are better understood through the lens of far-right mobilization, historical revisionism, anti-feminism, and transnational ideological circulation.

Professor María Esperanza Casullo, Professor at the Institute of Political Science, Faculty of History, Geography and Political Science, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, concluded with “Populist Narratives and Democratic Backsliding: Perspectives from Latin America.” Professor Esperanza-Casullo examined contemporary Latin American right-wing populism through the concept of the populist myth, highlighting narratives of grievance, cultural antagonism, hyper-masculinity, and elite collaboration.

Together, the panel offered a comparative account of democratic erosion as a globally connected but regionally differentiated phenomenon, underscoring the need for precise concepts, contextual analysis, and transnational democratic responses.


Professor Henri J. Barkey: Building an Authoritarian Edifice Step-By-Step
 

Professor Henri Barkey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and holder of the Bernard L. and Bertha F. Cohen Chair in International Relations at Lehigh University.

In his presentation, Professor Henri J. Barkey offered a comparative analysis of populist leadership through the cases of US President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Professor Barkey framed his intervention around a central analytical question: whether populist politics is primarily driven by ideology or by the personalistic ambitions of leaders. Drawing on the trajectories of both figures, Professor Barkey argued that personalism ultimately outweighs ideological coherence, shaping both the methods and outcomes of contemporary populist governance.

Professor Barkey began by emphasizing the distinct societal contexts from which Trump and Erdoğan emerged, while noting striking similarities in how both leaders constructed and maintained their populist authority. Despite operating within different institutional and cultural environments, Professor Barkey underscored that their approaches to consolidating power, managing opposition, and restructuring state-society relations display notable convergence. Both leaders, he argued, have had profound domestic and international consequences, albeit to varying degrees due to structural constraints.

Erdoğan’s Turn to Personalism

Focusing first on Erdoğan, Professor Barkey highlighted the transformation of his political trajectory since coming to power in 2003. At that time, Erdoğan presented himself as a democratic reformer, committed to pluralism and coexistence between religious and secular segments of Turkish society. According to Professor Barkey, this early democratic posture was not merely ideological but strategic. Faced with a powerful military establishment that had historically intervened in politics, Erdoğan cultivated domestic liberal support and international backing, particularly from Europe, as a means of safeguarding his position.

Professor Barkey noted that this strategy proved effective, especially following the political turning point of 2007, when Erdoğan successfully confronted the military and secured an overwhelming electoral mandate. With the military effectively neutralized, Professor Barkey observed a gradual but decisive shift in Erdoğan’s governance style. Over time, Erdoğan moved toward a more assertive form of Muslim nationalism, increasingly aligning political identity with his own leadership. Yet, Professor Barkey emphasized that even this ideological turn remained subordinate to a broader imperative: the preservation and aggrandizement of personal power.

In Professor Barkey’s analysis, Erdoğan’s invocation of Turkey’s geopolitical importance and civilizational role functioned not only as a national project but also as a vehicle for enhancing his own global stature. By framing Turkey as a central actor in international politics, Erdoğan simultaneously elevated his personal authority. This fusion of national ambition and personal aggrandizement, Professor Barkey argued, is a defining feature of contemporary populist leadership.

Trump’s Escalation of Executive Power

Turning to Donald Trump, Professor Barkey identified both parallels and divergences. While Trump’s first term was marked by a degree of unpredictability and inconsistency, Professor Barkey argued that his second term revealed a more pronounced and consequential pattern of governance. Trump, like Erdoğan, exhibited strong nationalist tendencies, particularly in economic policy and immigration. However, he noted that Trump’s ideological framework appeared less systematically developed and more dependent on the actions of advisors and institutional actors during his first term.

In contrast, Professor Barkey described Trump’s second term as characterized by intensified personalism and a more direct challenge to institutional norms. Central to this evolution, according to him, was a pronounced hostility toward expertise. Trump illustrated this through proposed budgetary cuts to major scientific and research institutions, including the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, and the scientific components of NASA. These measures, combined with broader attacks on universities, non-governmental organizations, and the federal bureaucracy, signaled a systematic effort to undermine institutional sources of independent authority.

Professor Barkey argued that this anti-expert orientation reflects a broader populist logic that prioritizes loyalty over competence. In both the American and Turkish cases, professional civil servants and institutional actors are recast as obstacles to the will of the leader. The erosion of expertise thus becomes a key mechanism through which populist leaders consolidate control.

Across both cases, Professor Barkey identified a set of common targets that define populist strategies of power consolidation. These include the judiciary and rule of law institutions, the press, universities, civil society organizations, and opposition parties. In addition, both leaders rely on narratives of foreign and domestic conspiracies, often invoking external interference or internal enemies to justify repressive measures. Disloyal minorities and professional elites are similarly portrayed as threats to national unity, while patronage networks are constructed to reward loyal supporters and sustain political control.

Undermining Institutions through Legal Control

Professor Barkey devoted particular attention to the instrumentalization of the judiciary. In Turkey, he argued, constitutional changes—especially after 2017—have enabled Erdoğan to exert comprehensive control over the legal system. Judges and prosecutors are appointed through mechanisms aligned with executive authority, allowing for the selective application of laws. Broad and ambiguous legal provisions, such as those related to disinformation or insults against the president, provide a flexible toolkit for repressing dissent.

Through illustrative examples, Professor Barkey demonstrated how these legal instruments operate in practice, including the prosecution of journalists and the retroactive use of social media posts as evidence. He further highlighted the expansion of bureaucratic mechanisms designed to monitor and regulate civil society, enabling the state to scrutinize and potentially suppress independent organizations.

The targeting of opposition figures constituted another central theme in Professor Barkey’s analysis. He described a systematic pattern in which prominent political leaders are subjected to legal pressures, arrests, and prolonged judicial processes. In this context, Professor Barkey emphasized the role of fabricated or exaggerated charges, supported by compliant judicial actors, in neutralizing political competition.

Drawing a comparison with the United States, Professor Barkey argued that while institutional constraints remain stronger, similar tendencies are observable. Trump’s efforts to delegitimize political opponents, challenge independent agencies, and exert pressure on figures such as the Federal Reserve Chair reflect analogous strategies. Although differing in intensity and effectiveness, these actions reveal a shared inclination to weaken institutional autonomy in favor of executive authority.

A recurring theme in Professor Barkey’s presentation was the paradox inherent in populist rhetoric. Both Erdoğan and Trump claim to represent authentic democratic forces, portraying themselves as defenders of the marginalized. Yet, as he argued, their governance practices often undermine the very institutional foundations that sustain democratic systems. This contradiction is particularly evident in their frequent denunciations of a so-called “deep state,” even as they construct parallel systems of control that replicate and intensify the dynamics they criticize.

In concluding his speech, Professor Barkey reiterated that the comparative analysis of Trump and Erdoğan underscores the centrality of personalism in contemporary populism. While ideological elements remain present, they are consistently subordinated to the imperative of maintaining individual power. The erosion of institutional checks, the targeting of opposition, and the restructuring of state apparatuses all serve this overarching goal.

Professor Barkey’s intervention thus provided a comprehensive account of how populist leaders navigate different political environments while employing remarkably similar strategies. By situating these developments within a broader analytical framework, Professor Barkey illuminated the mechanisms through which democratic institutions are gradually transformed, highlighting the enduring tension between electoral legitimacy and institutional integrity in modern political systems.

 

Professor Hannes Mosler: Populism and Transnational Ties of the Far Right in East Asia — Recent developments in South Korea

Hannes B. Mosler is Professor at Universität Duisburg-Essen, Institut für Politikwissenschaft (IfP), Institute of East Asian Studies (IN-EAST).

Professor Hannes Mosler’s presentation shifted the geographical focus from Europe and North America to East Asia, with particular attention to South Korea. Professor Mosler set out to examine whether the concept of populism, as commonly used in comparative political analysis, adequately captures recent political developments in East Asia. His answer was deliberately cautious: in most East Asian cases, he argued, the label “populism” is often invoked but rarely withstands rigorous analytical scrutiny. In the South Korean case, Professor Mosler proposed that the far-right framework offers a more accurate and empirically grounded lens for understanding democratic erosion.

Professor Mosler organized his presentation around two connected arguments. First, he argued that populism is frequently misapplied in East Asia. Although the term is used regularly in discussions of political leadership, electoral rhetoric, and democratic stress, many of these usages rely on anecdotal evidence, eclectic definitions, or locally specific political standards rather than internationally recognized criteria. Second, Professor Mosler contended that South Korea’s recent democratic challenges are better explained through the rise and institutional embedding of far-right politics than through populism. This distinction, he emphasized, matters not only conceptually but also practically, because democratic defense requires an accurate diagnosis of the threat.

Situating his argument in the broader East Asian context, Professor Mosler noted that liberal democracies such as Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea have received relatively little attention in the comparative literature on populism. This absence, he suggested, is not accidental. The cases are relatively weak when measured against strict definitional standards. Japan has produced figures such as Koizumi, Hashimoto, and Koike, whose theatrical styles and antagonistic rhetoric may appear populist on the surface. Yet Professor Mosler argued that they do not consistently articulate the core populist claim: the exclusive representation of a unified, morally pure people against a corrupt elite. Taiwan comes somewhat closer, especially given the role of China-related identity politics and cases such as Han Kuo-yu and the Sunflower Movement. Even there, however, Professor Mosler argued that the fit remains partial and risks conceptual stretching.

Far-Right Dynamics without Populist Mobilization

South Korea, in Professor Mosler’s account, presents the most revealing puzzle. Liberal presidents such as Roh Moo-hyun, Moon Jae-in, and Lee Jae-myung have often been labeled populists, but Professor Mosler argued that such labeling usually functions more as a political smear term than as an analytical category. Conservative and far-right opponents use “populism” to delegitimize progressive political actors, rather than to identify a clearly defined populist phenomenon.

The puzzle is especially striking because the demand-side conditions for populism appear to be present in South Korea. Professor Mosler identified high socioeconomic inequality, low institutional trust, acute intergenerational grievances, and an intensely connected digital public sphere as conditions that could plausibly sustain populist mobilization. Survey evidence also suggests widespread populist dispositions, including mistrust of elites and strong identification with popular sovereignty. Yet, importantly, Professor Mosler noted that anti-pluralist attitudes are not central to these dispositions. For this reason, he described South Korea as a case of “phantom populism”: despite frequent references to populism and the presence of enabling conditions, there is no clear supply-side crystallization in the form of populist parties, movements, or leaders.

Professor Mosler argued that democratic backsliding is nevertheless occurring in South Korea, but not through a populist mechanism. To explain this, he insisted on distinguishing between populism and the far right. While the two often appear together in cases such as Trump, Orbán, or Meloni, where far-right ideology provides the political content and populism supplies the rhetorical vehicle, South Korea presents a different configuration. In this case, Professor Mosler argued, the far-right ideological “cargo” is clearly present, but the populist “vehicle” is absent. The Yoon Suk Yeol administration and the People Power Party did not organize politics around the claim that a pure people must reclaim power from a corrupt elite. Rather, they framed opponents as security threats, pro-North Korean sympathizers, or enemies of the state. This, for Professor Mosler, reflects an authoritarian friend-enemy logic rather than a populist architecture.

Five Drivers of Democratic Erosion in South Korea

To clarify what is actually threatening democracy in South Korea, Professor Mosler identified five recent developments. The first was historical revisionism. He discussed the New Right movement, which for roughly two decades has sought to rehabilitate Korea’s colonial and authoritarian pasts by reframing them as periods of modernization and anti-communist heroism. This memory politics, Professor Mosler argued, challenges the democratization narrative that forms a key normative foundation of South Korean liberal democratic identity. For the far right, control over historical memory becomes a means of legitimizing its present political role.

The second development was anti-feminist mobilization. Professor Mosler highlighted the 2022 presidential campaign, during which Yoon Suk Yeol and the People Power Party targeted young men in their twenties and thirties through narratives of male victimhood, reverse discrimination, and the promise to abolish the Ministry of Gender Equality. This strategy mobilized gendered resentment and brought together disparate social groups in opposition to liberal egalitarian norms. Professor Mosler located this within a wider far-right pattern, where hierarchical social arrangements are defended against feminist and egalitarian challenges.

The third development was the martial law crisis of December 3, 2024, when President Yoon declared martial law. Professor Mosler noted that the Constitutional Court later ruled this action a violation of the Free Democratic Basic Order. From the perspective of far-right typology, he described this as a textbook movement from radicalism to extremism: a government operating at the edge of constitutional norms crossed into active subversion of constitutional order. The response of the governing party was equally significant. Professor Mosler argued that the People Power Party remained passive during the crisis, later sabotaged the constitutional process, refused meaningful apology, and maintained alliances with extreme-right civil society actors.

The fourth development concerned transnational far-right linkages. Professor Mosler emphasized the growing ties between South Korean far-right forces and counterparts in Japan and the United States. The Japanese connection, he argued, provides financial resources, cooperation, and intellectual fuel for historical revisionism. The American connection supplies financial, organizational, rhetorical, and symbolic resources. Professor Mosler situated these developments within broader patterns of far-right diffusion, describing them as trans-Pacific rather than transatlantic forms of ideological and organizational circulation.

The fifth development was the growing resemblance between South Korean far-right repertoires and Western far-right practices. Professor Mosler pointed to election denialism, xenophobic hate demonstrations, and violent attacks on judicial institutions as new phenomena in South Korea. He noted that such actions had previously been almost unthinkable in the Korean context, but now increasingly resemble patterns associated with Western far-right mobilization.

Rethinking South Korea through the Far-Right Lens

In his concluding reflections, Professor Mosler argued that shifting the analytical lens from populism to the far right clarifies the South Korean case on three levels. First, it unmasks the far right’s strategic use of populist rhetoric. Second, it sharpens the diagnosis of the actual threat: not a charismatic outsider undermining institutions from outside, but a far-right formation embedded within the democratic system, rewriting memory, normalizing extremism, and engaging in constitutional subversion. Third, it directs attention to structural and agency factors, including the cartelized party system, affective polarization, far-right intellectual infrastructures, and choices made by political actors such as Yoon Suk Yeol.

For populism research, Professor Mosler argued that South Korea demonstrates that populism and the far right do not always come together. The case invites scholars to ask which component is doing the explanatory work. In South Korea, he suggested, it is far-right content rather than populist rhetoric. For resilience research, Professor Mosler emphasized that standard safeguards—judicial independence, legislative oversight, and civil society mobilization—remain essential, and South Korea’s institutional response shows that they can still hold. Yet the far-right lens adds attention to slower and less visible battlegrounds: memory politics, normalization of extremism, and anti-liberal norms embedded in established parties.

Professor Mosler concluded that South Korea should not simply be added to existing maps of populism or the far right. Rather, it asks scholars to redraw those maps. Democratic erosion has more faces than current frameworks often recognize, and East Asia reveals some of them. For him, this requires a more differentiated analytical vocabulary, one that takes non-Western cases seriously on their own terms rather than forcing them into pre-existing categories. At the same time, he warned that regional differences should not obscure global convergence. Far-right repertoires are increasingly traveling across borders, and democratic actors will need more sophisticated transnational alliances to respond effectively.

 

Professor Maria Esperanza-Casullo: Populist Narratives and Democratic Backsliding — Perspectives from Latin America

Professor María Esperanza Casullo
María Esperanza Casullo is a Professor at the Institute of Political Science, Faculty of History, Geography and Political Science, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile.

As last panelist of the panel, Professor Maria Esperanza-Casullo’s presentation offered a conceptually rich analysis of the current wave of right-wing populism in Latin America, situating it within both regional political history and wider global patterns of authoritarian-populist convergence. Building on the previous presentation, Professor Esperanza-Casullo began by noting striking parallels across regions, suggesting that contemporary societies increasingly appear to inhabit a shared political condition shaped by right-wing or outright populism. Her intervention focused on why, in the Latin American case, the term “populism” remains analytically useful, particularly when distinguishing the current wave of right-wing leaders from earlier forms of right-wing rule.

Professor Esperanza-Casullo argued that Latin America has experienced multiple varieties of right-wing politics. The current wave differs both from the technocratic right-wing governments of the 1990s and from the openly authoritarian regimes of the late 1970s. For this reason, she suggested, the concept of right-wing populism helps capture both continuity and novelty: the continuity lies in the broader right-wing orientation, while the novelty lies in the specific discursive, affective, and mobilizational forms adopted by contemporary leaders.

The Populist Myth and Shifting Narratives

A central theme of Professor Esperanza-Casullo’s presentation was the importance of studying populist discourse as an early warning system for democratic threats. She emphasized that right-wing populist leaders are often remarkably explicit about their intentions. Their discourse before coming to power already reveals the policies, enemies, and political transformations they intend to pursue. Yet she observed that much of the literature on democratic erosion tends to focus on what happens after such leaders take office, paying insufficient attention to the moment of movement formation. In this regard, Professor Esperanza-Casullo drew attention to the importance of populist discourse as a tool for constructing a political movement and framing the policies that will later be implemented.

Professor Esperanza-Casullo revisited her own earlier work on the “populist myth,” a concept she developed to analyze populist narrative structures. Although this framework was originally applied to left-wing populism, particularly the Latin American “pink tide” of the early twenty-first century, she argued that it remains highly useful for understanding contemporary right-wing populism. The populist myth, in her account, is not a syllogistic or technocratic discourse but a narrative structure built around a hero, a damage, a villain, and a promise of redemption. The populist “people” are defined as the totality of those who have been harmed by the same antagonist. Populism, therefore, is centrally organized around conflict with a common adversary.

In the earlier left-wing populist wave, Professor Esperanza-Casullo argued, the villain was typically located “above”: banks, landed interests, the International Monetary Fund, imperial powers, and socioeconomic elites. The promise of redemption was linked to sovereignty, redistribution, national dignity, and popular mobilization. The current right-wing wave retains the narrative structure of the populist myth but changes its content. The adversary is now largely cultural rather than socioeconomic. The villains are “gender ideology,” “cultural Marxism,” “wokeness,” feminists, migrants, Indigenous groups, queer people, academics, public servants, and other groups portrayed as beneficiaries of illegitimate privilege.

Professor Esperanza-Casullo stressed that this shift in the definition of the adversary also transforms the policy agenda. Whereas left populism was distributive and mobilizational, contemporary right-wing populism is pro-business, strongly pro-American, and increasingly connected to global networks of Trumpian conservatism. She highlighted the participation of Latin American right-wing populists in transnational forums and circuits, including conferences and gatherings in Madrid, Miami, Israel, and other locations. These networks, she argued, help circulate repertoires, resources, and ideological frames across national boundaries.

A particularly important part of Professor Esperanza-Casullo’s analysis concerned the figure of the populist hero. In the right-wing populist myth, she argued, the hero is dual: both the leader and the people. The leader often presents himself as a “wounded messiah,” someone who has been mistreated, marginalized, humiliated, or excluded, but who now stands near or within power as the vehicle of collective revenge. Javier Milei represents an especially clear example of this structure. His discourse highlights resentment, outsider status, and personal grievance as sources of political authenticity.

Hyper-Masculinity and the Entrepreneurial Hero

At the same time, the right-wing populist hero includes businessmen, billionaires, especially tech billionaires, and figures associated with capitalist entrepreneurship. Professor Esperanza-Casullo described an almost religious veneration of the entrepreneur within this discourse. She also emphasized the gendered dimension of this heroic universe: the celebration of the “manly man,” aggression, sacrifice, toughness, and the capacity to endure hardship. In this narrative, sacrifice is moralized. Economic pain is not merely an unfortunate consequence of reform but is framed as necessary, deserved, and purifying.

Professor Esperanza-Casullo examined Javier Milei as the most extreme current example of this populist configuration. In Milei’s discourse, she argued, one finds the themes of parodic hyper-masculinity, relentless aggression on social media, attacks on women and queer people, and the absence of any substantive promise of economic prosperity. Instead of promising technocratic competence, better governance, or state reform, Milei frames economic punishment as a moral project. Poverty, hardship, and sacrifice become part of a broader narrative of cleansing and redemption.

Professor Esperanza-Casullo then situated the rise of this new right-wing populism within the failure of moderate center-right projects in Latin America during the 2010s. Governments and leaders such as Michel Temer in Brazil, Mauricio Macri in Argentina, and Sebastián Piñera in Chile did not succeed in consolidating a stable moderate right-wing alternative. Their failure opened space for more radical right-wing forces that thrive on polarization, aggression, and cultural antagonism.

She further argued that these movements “punch downward” rather than upward. Unlike left populisms that targeted socioeconomic elites, contemporary right-wing populists direct hostility toward feminists, Indigenous peoples, migrants, queer communities, public servants, academics, scientists, and vulnerable groups, including people with disabilities. This downward aggression is central to their political appeal. Performances of aggression, cultural vulgarity, and hyper-masculinity become not incidental but constitutive features of the movement.

New Actors and Fragmented Political Arenas

Professor Esperanza-Casullo also noted the emergence of new political actors supporting these movements. These include Pentecostal networks, young men mobilized through social media, and the manosphere. These actors help reshape political alignments and reinforce the affective appeal of resentment, anti-feminism, and cultural backlash. Politically, however, she suggested that these movements may not be seeking long-term hegemonic party-building in the older Peronist sense. Rather, they may be adapting to fragmented political systems, thriving in conditions of chaos, low participation, and party disintegration, where winning elections with relatively limited vote shares becomes possible.

Turning to democratic threats, Professor Esperanza-Casullo argued that the danger posed by contemporary right-wing populism in Latin America differs from older authoritarian seizures of power through military coups. The primary threat is the creation of an indirect climate of violence and fear. Through aggressive discourse, stochastic violence, and the mobilization of followers, opposition figures are harassed, hounded, intimidated, or pushed out of public life. The state itself may be used to target opponents, not necessarily through overt dictatorship, but through intimidation, exclusion, and fear.

A second threat is the formation of authoritarian collaborative networks that channel resources, strategies, and repertoires toward aspiring despots across the region. A third is what Professor Esperanza-Casullo called “populist learning by elites.” Whereas Latin American economic elites were often anti-populist in the twentieth century, many have now learned to support and benefit from populist politics. Rather than backing technocrats with elite credentials and ties to economic institutions, business elites are increasingly willing to support figures like Milei or Bolsonaro, even when these leaders openly contribute to democratic erosion.

In closing, Professor Esperanza-Casullo outlined possible responses. First, she stressed the importance of empowering women and youth. Across the region, she argued, women constitute the core of resistance against this form of right-wing populism, as polling consistently shows. Yet this creates a structural challenge because women remain less empowered within political systems. Strengthening their voices and political capacity is therefore essential for democratic defense.

Second, she argued that electoral competition remains viable in much of Latin America and should still be prioritized. Courts, by contrast, are often highly politicized and polarized, and therefore cannot always serve as reliable venues for democratic resistance, except in specific cases such as Brazil.

Finally, she emphasized the need to confront global networks of authoritarian collaboration. Pro-democracy and progressive actors lack an equivalent to CPAC or to the transnational networks of billionaires funding right-wing populist convergence. Professor Esperanza-Casullo concluded that scholars and democratic actors must recognize that policy convergence among these leaders is being driven from above and that nationally bounded comparative studies are no longer sufficient to understand or counter the phenomenon.

 

Discussions

The discussion at the end of the fourth panel extended the comparative scope of the session by drawing together the presentations on Turkey and the United States, South Korea and East Asia, and Latin American right-wing populism. Moderated by Professor Reinhard Heinisch, the exchange returned to the panel’s central premise: although democratic backsliding appears as a broadly shared trend, its forms, vocabularies, and mechanisms differ significantly across regions. Professor Heinisch emphasized that these differences concern not only empirical developments but also the concepts through which scholars interpret them, particularly the categories of populism, far-right politics, authoritarianism, and democratic resilience.

The first substantive question came from Professor İbrahim Öztürk, who addressed Professor Mosler’s argument about the limited applicability of populism to East Asia. Drawing on his own interest in Japanese political economy and referring to the work of Axel Klein on Japanese politics, Professor Öztürk noted the claim that the “problem” of populism in Japan has often been its absence. Yet he also pointed to recent developments, including the emergence of a new party using populist rhetoric and the leadership of Prime Minister Takaichi, whom he described as right-wing-oriented and populist-leaning. He asked Professor Mosler to comment on whether these developments suggest that Japan may be moving closer to the kinds of populism observed elsewhere.

Professor Hannes Mosler responded by first clarifying that he was not a Japan specialist, while acknowledging that he could comment based on his collaboration and reading. He emphasized that Japan and Taiwan differ from South Korea, and that his argument was not that populism is entirely absent in East Asia. Rather, his point was that the diagnosis depends heavily on how populism is defined and operationalized. Populism, he noted, should not be treated as a simple binary category. Political actors may display partial or limited populist features without meeting the full criteria of populism as used in comparative scholarship. In this sense, Japanese cases such as Takaichi or smaller parties may show certain populist rhetorical tendencies, but they remain analytically distinct from the more fully developed populist formations commonly discussed in Europe, North America, or Latin America.

Professor Mosler concluded that there is potential for more recognizable forms of populism to develop in Japan or East Asia, but that such developments remain limited at present. For now, he argued, the more pressing threat is the far right rather than populism as such. This distinction matters because democratic defense requires accurate diagnosis. If the actual problem is far-right revisionism, anti-liberalism, or authoritarian radicalization, then framing it as populism may obscure the nature of the threat and weaken the design of appropriate responses.

Opposition Fragmentation under Authoritarian Pressure

The discussion then turned to Turkey and the United States through a question by Dr. Bulent Kenes addressed primarily to Professor Barkey. Dr. Kenes observed that Turkish society appears divided into ideological, social, and communal “neighborhoods” that exist in parallel universes, with limited cooperation among them. He suggested that even those who suffer under the current system continue to “otherize” other victims of the system, making it difficult to build the kind of broad opposition coalition seen in Poland or Hungary. He asked whether a similar situation exists in the United States and how such polarization among the opponents of authoritarian-populist systems might be overcome in both Turkey and the United States.

Professor Henri Barkey first interpreted the question as asking whether groups in the United States can coalesce in ways that seem difficult in Turkey because of the depth of polarization. Turning briefly to Turkey, Professor Barkey noted that the Kurdish question currently produces an unusual political configuration. The Kurds are “somewhere in between”: on one hand, they seek a peace process with the government; on the other, they clearly do not agree with the government and face undemocratic treatment. Professor Barkey suggested that five years earlier, the Kurds and the main opposition might have been more able to collaborate, whereas today the political terrain is more ambiguous.

By contrast, Professor Barkey argued that the United States differs because opposition can emerge not only through political parties but also through institutions. The federal system itself creates forms of resistance. State-level actors, including Republicans in federal states, may resist Trump’s pressures even if they do not formally join the Democratic opposition. Thus, institutional differentiation provides additional channels of opposition that Turkey lacks. Professor Barkey also suggested that the extent of defections from the governing coalition in the United States may be greater than is visible. He pointed to Trump’s policy reversals and contradictions, especially the fact that a leader who claimed to oppose wars is now associated with conflicts producing serious economic consequences. In his view, these developments may be weakening the ruling coalition, with the depth of this weakening likely to become clearer in upcoming elections.

Dr. Kenes then clarified that his concern was also about Turkey: whether Professor Barkey agreed that the opposition itself continues to reproduce otherization among those already excluded by the regime. He mentioned reservations within the CHP toward Kurds, so-called Gülenists, and Muslim groups not aligned with Erdoğan. Professor Barkey responded by emphasizing the scale of repression in Turkey. He argued that the current level of repression indicates that Erdoğan knows he has lost much of his support base. People can find themselves jailed for merely saying something, and may remain in detention for long periods before trial. For Professor Barkey, this level of repression suggests fear of political defeat. Diverse groups may remain divided, but many are likely to vote against Erdoğan in one way or another. He also noted that Hungary may have reinforced Erdoğan’s awareness of the risks faced by entrenched leaders.

Professor Barkey further highlighted the impact of Erdoğan’s long tenure. After 24 years in power, an entire generation of younger adults has known no other leader in their conscious political life. This may produce fatigue that is difficult to measure empirically but politically significant. Professor Barkey suggested that Erdoğan’s increasing repression reflects this exhaustion and the weakening of his coalition. Yet because Erdoğan remains in power and controls public discourse, the full extent of coalition disintegration is difficult to observe.

Women as a Counterforce to Populist Politics

Professor Kent Jones then shifted the discussion to the role of women in populist politics. Speaking as a non-specialist in populism but from an interest in its sociological dimensions, Professor Jones asked whether women play a systematic role either in supporting or opposing populism. He noted that cultural populism often politicizes women’s roles, while many populist leaders project strong masculine or macho styles. Referring to President Trump’s war against Iran, Professor Jones suggested that this may have generated particular opposition among women who did not believe they were voting for a warmonger. He asked whether there is a systematic way to study populism through the lens of feminism and gender.

Professor Maria Esperanza-Casullo answered first, framing her response around a sociological and quantitative observation. In every country she follows, she argued, women constitute the main base of opposition to right-wing populist governments. In Argentina, depending on the poll, there is a 17- to 20-point gender gap in support for Milei. Similar patterns appear in Brazil, Colombia, and Chile. The central question, for Professor Esperanza-Casullo, is how this gendered opposition can be politically leveraged.

Professor Esperanza-Casullo emphasized that while women may form the strongest base of democratic resistance, they participate less in politics, occupy fewer positions of power, and often have their voices suppressed. She noted that President Milei engages in intense harassment of female critics, including journalists and public figures, in ways that male critics do not experience to the same degree. Yet she also stressed that right-wing populist movements do include women leaders. Indeed, she observed that being an anti-feminist woman can be a viable political career within such movements.

For Professor Esperanza-Casullo, these developments pose a challenge to theories of political representation. Classical theories of political cleavages did not anticipate political systems structured so explicitly around gender as a cleavage. She raised the possibility that parties may increasingly be divided along gendered lines, with some parties attracting women and pro-women constituencies while others are disproportionately supported by men. This cleavage, she noted, cuts through private life itself, including families in which women and men vote for opposing political projects. She concluded that gender must be made central both to analysis and to new forms of democratic political practice.

Professor Öztürk then posed a question to Professor Esperanza-Casullo concerning Brazil and the transition from Bolsonaro to Lula. He argued that Lula’s success depended crucially on coalition-building, including the mobilization of civil society, elements of the top bureaucracy, and major opposition parties to ensure a peaceful power transition. Yet he suggested that coalition-building, while necessary, is not sufficient. It must be combined with charismatic leadership, convincing and legitimate rhetoric capable of unifying citizens, and an ability to persuade voters that the national interest can be protected. He asked Professor Esperanza-Casullo to reflect on these additional requirements for peaceful transition after authoritarian or populist rule.

Professor Esperanza-Casullo agreed with Professor Öztürk’s interpretation and stressed that the Brazilian case is difficult to replicate precisely because it involved such a rare combination of factors. Coalition formation was crucial, but so was the fact that segments of the business elite turned against Bolsonaro, something she noted is not yet visible with Milei. The presence of a charismatic leader such as Lula was also indispensable. At the same time, Professor Esperanza-Casullo suggested that the region may be moving toward a more permanent structure of competition between a populist left and a populist right. This raises the question of whether Latin American party systems may stabilize around a recurring confrontation between two populist coalitions rather than returning to previous patterns of party competition. She noted that this was an unexpected development and remains analytically unresolved.

Converging Pressures, Divergent Outcomes

Professor Heinisch then intervened with a broader comparative reflection tying together the panel’s regional cases. He asked what is fundamentally driving the phenomena under discussion. In Europe, he noted, explanations often point to modernity, globalization, modernization, and fears among social groups that their futures are worsening. In Latin America, older theories linked populism to modernization pressures and institutional incapacity, where leaders appealed directly to the masses as savior figures. He wondered whether contemporary politics still revolves around expectations of salvation, now expressed through competing left-wing and right-wing saviors.

Professor Heinisch contrasted this with Asia, where some ingredients common in other regions—such as immigration or similar patterns of societal marginalization—appear less central. In Professor Mosler’s account, the South Korean case is better understood through the far right than through populism, with some elements also infused through external or transnational connections. Professor Heinisch therefore asked whether the cases share common ingredients or whether they are fundamentally different stories developing in parallel under loosely similar external conditions.

Professor Hannes Mosler responded by suggesting that there is a strong common denominator: the global polycrisis of the last decade. Around the 2010s, and especially since the period associated with the fourth wave of far-right or populist politics, multiple global crises have exerted pressure on national political systems. These crises create common stress across countries, but each national context reacts differently depending on its own institutions, histories, party systems, and social structures. Some reactions therefore resemble one another, while others diverge significantly. Professor Mosler argued that the external factor has increasingly become internalized, shaping domestic political dynamics in different ways. The result is both convergence and variation: shared pressures, transnational connections, and regionally specific outcomes.

 

Conclusion

The deliberations of Panel 4 underscore a central paradox in contemporary debates on democratic backsliding: while the phenomenon appears globally pervasive, its drivers, expressions, and trajectories remain deeply conditioned by regional contexts and institutional configurations. Under the moderation of Professor Reinhard Heinisch, the panel illuminated both convergence and divergence, demonstrating that democratic erosion cannot be adequately captured through a single analytical lens. Instead, it requires a multidimensional framework attentive to personalistic leadership, ideological transformations, institutional resilience, and transnational linkages.

Across the contributions, a recurring theme was the tension between global structural pressures and locally mediated political outcomes. Professor Henri J. Barkey’s analysis highlighted the centrality of personalism in shaping authoritarian trajectories, showing how leaders strategically manipulate institutions to consolidate power. Professor Hannes Mosler’s intervention complicated dominant narratives by demonstrating that the analytical category of populism does not travel seamlessly across regions, and that in some contexts—such as South Korea—the far right provides a more precise explanatory framework. Professor María Esperanza-Casullo, in turn, revealed how populist narratives in Latin America operate through evolving mythologies that redefine antagonisms and reshape political alignments.

The panel also pointed to emerging dynamics that cut across regions, including the role of transnational networks, the politicization of gender, and the fragmentation of traditional party systems. At the same time, it emphasized that democratic resilience remains contingent upon context-specific factors, ranging from institutional safeguards to coalition-building capacities and social mobilization.

In sum, Panel 4 highlighted the need for greater conceptual precision, comparative sensitivity, and transnational awareness in the study of democratic backsliding. It suggested that future research and policy responses must move beyond one-size-fits-all explanations, instead engaging with the complex interplay between global pressures and regional political realities shaping the contemporary crisis of liberal democracy.

Professor Richard Youngs is a Senior Fellow in the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program at Carnegie Europe and Professor of International Relations at the University of Warwick.

ECPS Symposium 2026 / Keynote by Prof. Richard Youngs: Democratic Resilience in Europe — Can It Be Effective?

Please cite as:
ECPS Staff. (2026). “ECPS Symposium 2026 / Keynote by Prof. Richard Youngs: Democratic Resilience in Europe — Can It Be Effective?” European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). April 28, 2026. https://doi.org/10.55271/rp00152

 

Professor Richard Youngs’ keynote examined the European Union’s evolving response to democratic backsliding, populism, and institutional fragility. Professor Youngs argued that the EU has developed important tools—including the Democracy Shield, digital regulation, rule-of-law conditionality, civil society funding, and participatory mechanisms—but that its approach remains uneven and incomplete. He emphasized that democratic resilience must address not only external threats such as disinformation and foreign interference, but also internal dysfunctions, including weakened civic space, far-right normalization, migration politics, and democratic recovery after state capture. The ensuing discussion underscored the need for a more coherent and holistic EU strategy that effectively connects institutional reform, grassroots mobilization, and long-term democratic renewal across member states.

Reported by ECPS Staff

The keynote session on the second day of the Fifth Annual International Symposium, Reforming and Safeguarding Liberal Democracy: Systemic Crises, Populism, and Democratic Resilience,” featured Professor Richard Youngs, Senior Fellow in the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program at Carnegie Europe and leader of the European Democracy Hub. In his keynote, “Democratic Resilience in Europe: Can It Be Effective?” Professor Youngs offered a focused and policy-oriented assessment of the European Union’s evolving efforts to respond to democratic malaise, backsliding, and the broader challenge of democratic renewal.

Moderated by Professor İbrahim Öztürk, the session situated Professor Youngs’ analysis within the symposium’s wider debates on democratic vulnerability, populism, and institutional resilience. Professor Öztürk guided the discussion by opening the floor to critical questions and reflections, enabling participants to connect the keynote’s policy analysis to pressing concerns over civic freedoms, migration, far-right influence, transatlantic lesson-learning, and democratic recovery after autocratization.

Professor Youngs argued that EU democratic resilience policy has advanced considerably in recent years, especially through initiatives such as the Democracy Shield, the Centre for Democratic Resilience, digital regulation, rule-of-law conditionality, civil society funding, and participatory mechanisms. Yet his assessment remained deliberately balanced: while the EU has become more active, its approach remains partial, uneven, and marked by significant blind spots. It has been strongest in addressing online disinformation, foreign interference, and formal rule-of-law concerns, but weaker in supporting bottom-up democratic mobilization, developing systematic strategies for democratic recovery, confronting internal democratic dysfunctions, and reforming the EU’s own institutional architecture.

The discussion following the keynote extended these themes into politically sensitive terrain. Participants raised questions about Europe-wide restrictions on pro-Palestinian activism, the mainstreaming of far-right influence in migration and climate policy, the erosion of the cordon sanitaire, and the relevance of Polish and Hungarian experiences for democratic recovery. Professor Youngs emphasized that Europe’s democratic resilience challenge is not only external but deeply internal, involving unresolved tensions over civic rights, identity conflicts, policy accommodation, and institutional credibility. Taken together, the keynote and discussion provided a nuanced account of both the promise and the limits of the EU’s emerging democratic resilience agenda.

Democratic Resilience in Europe

Professor Richard Youngs delivered the keynote speech with a focused and policy-oriented analysis of the European Union’s evolving approach to democratic resilience. Speaking from the perspective of his work at Carnegie Europe in Brussels, where he leads the European Democracy Hub, Professor Youngs framed his intervention as an assessment of recent practical policy initiatives developed by the EU to address democratic malaise, democratic backsliding, and the broader challenge of democratic renewal across Europe. Rather than approaching democratic resilience purely as an abstract or conceptual question, Professor Youngs sought to connect concrete EU policy developments to the more theoretical debates that had animated the symposium’s earlier panels.

At the outset, Professor Youngs emphasized that EU efforts in the field of democratic resilience have advanced significantly in recent years, but that these advances remain uneven, partial, and marked by important blind spots. European responses to democratic decline, he argued, were slow to emerge. Many of the initiatives now gaining prominence arrived relatively late, despite years of concern about democratic erosion within and around the EU. Nevertheless, over the last couple of years, democratic resilience has become a much more visible and urgent part of the EU agenda. A wide range of initiatives is now being developed to help contain, mitigate, and potentially reverse Europe’s democratic challenges.

Professor Youngs’s central assessment was therefore balanced: the EU has made important policy advances, but its approach remains patchy and incomplete. The Union has developed relatively strong instruments in some areas of democratic resilience, especially digital regulation and protection of the information space, but has been weaker in other domains, particularly bottom-up democratic mobilization, democratic recovery, and reform of the EU’s own institutional architecture. In this sense, Professor Youngs suggested that EU democratic resilience policy reflects aspects of different conceptual approaches, yet suffers from imbalances within each.

To establish the analytical framework for his discussion, Professor Youngs defined democratic resilience in two stages. The first concerns the capacity of democratic systems to resist immediate threats and crises while preserving their core democratic elements. The second is more forward-looking and concerns democratic renewal: the improvement of democratic quality in ways that reduce vulnerability to future crises. This two-level model allowed Professor Youngs to distinguish between short-term defensive measures and deeper, longer-term reforms aimed at strengthening democracy’s foundations.

Professor Youngs also emphasized that democratic resilience depends on multiple levels and actors. It may be provided through formal institutional actors, state bodies, political parties, civil society, local authorities, and, in the European context, the EU’s transnational dimension. A key question, therefore, is whether these different actors are acting in effective coordination with one another. This issue of coordination became one of the recurring themes of Professor Youngs’s keynote.

He further noted that much of the policy discussion in Europe is framed less explicitly in terms of “democratic resilience” and more in terms of how to respond to the far right. This distinction matters because it shapes the kinds of policies that are prioritized. While democratic resilience implies a broad concern with institutional quality, civic participation, political legitimacy, and democratic renewal, a narrower focus on the far right may lead to more defensive or tactical measures aimed primarily at containment.

From Stability to Strain

Professor Youngs distinguished between two ways of assessing the state of European democracy. If one looks at the immediate snapshot, the situation is not catastrophic. Democracy indices suggest that overall democratic levels in Europe have held up reasonably well, with only slight deterioration in several countries. Europe has not experienced wholesale democratic collapse. Yet the deeper concern is prospective: democratic quality may suffer significantly in the future unless more ambitious renewal efforts are undertaken. Thus, the EU’s resilience challenge is not only to resist immediate democratic breakdown but also to stave off future crises and assist democratic recovery in countries that have already undergone sustained backsliding.

The major policy development identified by Professor Youngs was the EU’s Democracy Shield, introduced as a key initiative to strengthen democratic resilience. The Democracy Shield is intended to bring together various strands of EU work aimed at defending and renewing democracy. Under this rubric, the EU has also opened a new Centre for Democratic Resilience. Professor Youngs described these initiatives as promising and tangible signs that the EU is beginning to take democratic resilience more seriously.

However, Professor Youngs also highlighted the main criticism directed at the Democracy Shield: its initial framing was overly defensive and externally focused. It tended to define the principal threat to European democracy as coming from non-democratic actors outside the EU, especially through foreign interference and online manipulation. This framing, Professor Youngs argued, risks placing too much emphasis on external threats while underplaying endogenous democratic weaknesses within European political systems. Although he acknowledged that this criticism remains partly valid, he also noted that the EU has gradually broadened its focus. The Democracy Shield now includes policies on elections, civic participation, civil society, and democratic resilience more generally.

Still, Professor Youngs argued that democratic resilience efforts across Europe remain scattered. Many initiatives exist at different levels, but they are not sufficiently joined together. Policy activity is expanding, but it has not yet been integrated into a holistic framework capable of addressing the full range of democratic challenges identified in academic debates.

Six Pillars of Resilience

Professor Youngs organized the main body of his keynote around six dimensions of EU democratic resilience policy: the online information space and foreign information manipulation and interference; rule of law conditionality; democratic hardball and alliances against far-right actors; civil society and participatory tools; democratic mobilization through protest; and reform of the EU itself.

The first and most developed area, according to Professor Youngs, is the online information space. He argued that this is where EU tools have advanced furthest and where the Union has the most concrete leverage. The EU has developed what it refers to as its “digital suite,” including the Digital Services Act and related measures, aimed at regulating large technology platforms and moderating their impact on democratic information spaces. These policies are being implemented increasingly assertively and form a central part of the EU’s democratic resilience agenda.

Professor Youngs noted that much of the work in this area is carried out through the new Centre for Democratic Resilience, which focuses on sharing lessons and best practices for countering online threats. This is the domain in which the EU possesses real institutional weight, particularly through legal and regulatory instruments. However, Professor Youngs also acknowledged criticism that the EU remains relatively cautious. More ambitious proposals—such as promoting pro-democratic algorithms, taxing anti-democratic disinformation, or moving toward public-interest digital infrastructure—remain part of policy debate but have not yet been fully adopted.

For Professor Youngs, the EU’s digital strategy is therefore significant but limited. It is strongest in containing the worst effects of online threats, but less developed in addressing the deeper structural model through which large technology platforms undermine democratic agency. The EU has done comparatively less to foster digital empowerment or use online tools to improve democratic deliberation. Thus, even in its most advanced area of policy, the EU’s democratic resilience strategy remains more regulatory than transformative.

The second major area Professor Youngs addressed was rule of law conditionality. He observed that the EU has gradually become tougher in using financial leverage against member states where rule of law concerns are acute. Since 2022, the EU has withheld large amounts of funding from Poland and Hungary on rule of law grounds. In Poland, this amounted to around €110 billion in support in the run-up to the 2023 elections. In Hungary, approximately €30 billion remains withheld, equivalent to roughly 14–15 percent of Hungarian GDP.

Professor Youngs argued that withholding funds has not been a primary driver of democratic resilience but has acted as a meaningful secondary factor. In Poland, for example, the EU’s withholding of funding may have played a relevant role in shaping the pro-democratic electoral outcome of 2023. However, he also stressed the limitations of this approach. EU conditionality remains relatively narrow and technical, focused on rule of law concerns that affect the functioning of the EU, rather than broader democracy conditionality. Moreover, the EU has not been able to use Article 7 effectively to suspend voting rights for member states that violate fundamental rule of law principles.

Professor Youngs noted that this may change under proposals for the next EU budget, which could extend rule of law conditionality to all EU funding and broaden the scope of rule of law pressure. If implemented, this would represent a significant policy development, potentially increasing the EU’s leverage over member states that backslide democratically.

The third area concerned emerging debates over democratic hardball and tactics against far-right parties. Professor Youngs observed that some member states have begun using more assertive tools against far-right leaders and parties, including legal provisions, increased surveillance, and multi-party alliances designed to prevent far-right actors from gaining power. These developments remain limited and ad hoc. There is no common EU-level strategy for dealing with the far right in this way.

Professor Youngs stressed that academic research does not prescribe a single approach to the far right. The appropriate balance between ostracism, confrontation, containment, and pragmatic engagement depends heavily on national political context. This diversity of analytical thinking is reflected in the diversity of strategies pursued across Europe. Still, Professor Youngs suggested that a hybrid EU approach may be emerging, combining tougher tactics against anti-democratic actors with pragmatic centrism as part of democratic resilience.

The fourth dimension was civil society and participation. Professor Youngs described this as an increasingly important and promising area. The EU has developed new funding streams for democratic groups working inside Europe—funding that did not previously exist at this scale. There are proposals to double these funds in the next budget, which would significantly increase the resources available for democratic resilience work.

In addition, the EU now organizes several citizen panels each year to promote citizen engagement in democratic debates. At national and subnational levels, there has also been significant growth in citizens’ assemblies, juries, and participatory panels. While these mechanisms are not entirely new, their number has increased notably. Professor Youngs also pointed to the rise of civil society-led participation initiatives, which are becoming more prevalent and influential.

Yet he also acknowledged skepticism about this area. Critics argue that these initiatives remain small-scale and that their concrete political impact is not yet visible at the overarching political level. Thus, while participatory democracy has gained attention, it has not yet become a fully transformative force in European democratic renewal.

The fifth dimension was democratic mobilization through protest. Professor Youngs noted that Europe has witnessed a wave of pro-democratic protests over the last two or three years, with most member states experiencing some form of democratic mobilization. Yet EU policy in this area has been cautious, and sometimes even negative. Governments have tended to contain or suppress protests rather than actively support them. In some countries, civic space has narrowed, making it harder for protests to be organized effectively.

This, for Professor Youngs, reveals a crucial imbalance in the EU’s democratic resilience approach. The EU remains more comfortable with top-down initiatives, regulation, and standard-setting than with genuinely bottom-up grassroots pluralism. Democratic resilience is therefore being supported from above more than cultivated from below.

The sixth dimension was reform of the European Union itself. Professor Youngs emphasized that many analysts argue democratic resilience measures will remain limited unless the EU addresses its own democratic deficit. Concerns about the EU’s democratic deficit have deepened in recent years and contribute to wider feelings of disenfranchisement among citizens. Although debates on EU reform have intensified, with many governments acknowledging the need for structural change, little has been done concretely.

Professor Youngs argued that placing democracy at the core of EU reform is a frequently expressed aspiration but remains underdeveloped in practice. This is one of the weakest links in the EU’s democratic resilience strategy: the Union seeks to strengthen democracy in member states without sufficiently democratizing its own structures and decision-making procedures.

The EU’s Unfinished Agenda

Professor Youngs then turned to democratic recovery, especially in relation to Poland and Hungary. He noted that the EU does not yet have a systematic strategy for helping countries re-democratize after sustained autocratization. This question has become more urgent because of developments in Poland after the 2023 elections and, more recently, Hungary. The EU was not especially effective in preventing democratic regression in either country, but some of the funding it kept in place for pro-democratic actors may now help democratic recovery.

Professor Youngs emphasized the central dilemma: how to recover democracy without using undemocratic means after periods of autocratization. Poland illustrates this difficulty, as the post-2023 government has faced significant challenges in restoring democratic norms. The EU, he argued, still lacks a well-developed line on democratic recovery.

He also noted that the EU’s response to Poland may have been overly generous and rapid. The Union released funds quickly to reward the new government’s pro-EU orientation, but some observers argue that this may have reduced the EU’s leverage over democratic recovery. This lesson is now shaping debates about Hungary, where the EU may be more cautious and severe in setting conditions before releasing withheld funds.

In concluding, Professor Youngs summarized five key imbalances in EU democratic resilience policy. First, the EU remains more focused on external threats than on internal democratic dysfunctions, though this imbalance is beginning to shift. Second, the EU is better at setting standards through regulation than at supporting local-level citizen participation. Third, it focuses more on rule of law than on broader indicators of democratic quality. Fourth, it is stronger in top-down regulation than in fostering bottom-up pluralism. Fifth, its approach to the far right remains pragmatic and fragmented rather than systemic.

Professor Youngs concluded that the EU’s democratic resilience agenda is becoming more prominent and has developed significantly, especially in the areas of disinformation, foreign interference, digital regulation, and formal civic participation. However, it remains mixed and uneven. It is less developed in relation to assertive responses to far-right parties, bottom-up democratic contestation, democratic recovery, and EU reform itself.

Ultimately, Professor Youngs argued that the EU still lacks a fully comprehensive understanding of democratic resilience. Its policies reflect partial elements of what democratic resilience requires, but not yet a holistic strategy. Much of the policy debate has focused on explaining the causes of democratic problems, while less attention has been given to developing operational frameworks for democratic resistance and renewal. The EU’s current approach, though promising, still needs a more coherent analytical framework against which its effectiveness can be judged.

 

Discussions

The discussion following Professor Youngs’ keynote speech deepened and extended the central themes of his presentation, particularly the tensions between democratic resilience, internal dysfunctions within Europe, the rise of the far right, civic freedoms, transatlantic lesson-learning, and the challenge of democratic recovery after periods of autocratization. Moderated by Professor Öztürk, the exchange moved from questions of Europe’s response to pro-Palestinian activism to the impact of far-right influence on EU policy, the comparative lessons of Hungary and Poland, the weakening of cordon sanitaire strategies, and the dilemmas faced by liberal-centrist governments attempting to reverse democratic backsliding without losing public support.

Opening the discussion, Professor Öztürk invited questions, comments, and criticism from the participants. The first intervention came from Professor Cengiz Aktar, who posed what he described as a straightforward but politically charged question concerning Europe-wide restrictions on pro-Palestinian narratives and activism. He asked Professor Youngs to assess the weight and impact of such repression on Europe’s democratic credentials and normative claims. Professor Aktar further emphasized that many European far-right parties, which democratic actors are ostensibly seeking to contain, have become increasingly pro-Israel, often as an extension of their anti-Islam orientation. In this sense, he framed the issue as a clear example of what Professor Youngs had earlier termed an “internal dysfunction” within European democracy. Rather than merely facing external democratic threats, Europe was, in Professor Aktar’s formulation, tolerating or even accommodating internal contradictions each time pro-Palestinian rallies were restricted in London, Berlin, or elsewhere.

Professor Youngs responded by acknowledging that this is indeed a growing democratic problem. He distinguished the impact of the Middle East conflict from the war in Ukraine, arguing that unlike the Ukrainian case, the Middle East conflict has had a negative effect on the quality of European democracy. In his assessment, Europe has effectively imported the tensions of the conflict into its own political systems. Restrictions on pro-Palestinian protests, he noted, have already been registered in democracy indices and help explain why civic rights indicators have deteriorated in several member states. Professor Youngs linked this directly to a point from his keynote: European governments have often failed to positively encourage democratic mobilization and have instead attempted to contain or hold protests at bay.

At the same time, Professor Youngs recognized the complexity of the issue. Were EU or national government officials present, he suggested, they would likely justify restrictions as necessary to limit antisemitism within some protests. This creates a difficult balancing act between protecting minority communities and safeguarding protest rights. Yet Professor Youngs emphasized that the issue also reinforces another theme from his keynote: the absence of a common European line. Some countries, such as Spain, have adopted more favorable positions toward the Palestinian issue, while others have imposed stricter limits. For Professor Youngs, this illustrates how external crises can expose internal democratic weaknesses and how the EU struggles to respond in an agile and democratically coherent fashion when member states diverge sharply.

Far-Right Influence and Strategic Dilemmas

Dr. Bulent Kenes then raised a question about whether the EU itself is genuinely moving in the right direction in reforming and strengthening democratic resilience. He asked whether, given recent shifts in EU migration policy, the Union can be considered immune to far-right influence or “contamination.” He further asked whether these policy adjustments reflect a deeper normative accommodation to far-right projects within the European project.

Professor Youngs responded by broadening the issue beyond migration to include climate policy as another area where far-right influence has become visible. He noted that the radical right and far right now have significant representation in the European Parliament, and this has begun to affect policy debates and outcomes. However, he cautioned that it is more complicated to determine whether such policy impacts are intrinsically anti-democratic. One may profoundly disagree with the policy positions adopted by far-right actors, but whether these positions directly undermine European democracy depends on the specific parties, countries, and policy areas involved.

Professor Youngs connected this question to ongoing debates over tactics against the far right. Academic research has long examined whether democratic actors should adopt constitutional hardball and assertive measures against anti-democratic parties, or whether they should pursue a more pragmatic and consensual approach that attempts to understand and address the root causes of far-right support. In practice, he argued, no common European line has emerged. Even some relatively liberal parties would argue that ostracizing far-right parties may increase their appeal among disaffected voters. Others contend that the greater danger lies in mainstream center-right parties becoming increasingly open to cooperation with far-right policy agendas. Professor Youngs concluded that the evidence is not yet conclusive as to which approach is more effective. However, the divergence itself reveals how difficult it is for the EU to develop a full-spectrum democratic resilience strategy while member states and political families remain divided on these tactical questions.

Transatlantic Lessons and Limits

Professor Kent Jones then introduced a comparative transatlantic perspective. Speaking as an American observer, he reflected on the different dimensions along which democratic resilience is being tested in the United States. He noted that federal courts have often provided a degree of resistance, even if the Supreme Court has sometimes been less helpful. Public backlash has also played a role in raising awareness, while the federal structure of the United States has limited some illiberal reforms during the Trump years. Against this background, Professor Jones asked whether there is a useful path for exchanging lessons between Europe and the United States. He asked what elements of the European experience might be transferable to the United States and what aspects of the American experience might be informative for Europe’s own resilience agenda.

Professor Youngs described this as a particularly important question and noted that Carnegie has been working with colleagues in the United States on precisely this issue. However, he argued that there has been a “woeful insufficiency” of lesson-learning not only across the Atlantic but also among European states themselves. This, he suggested, is an area in urgent need of development. For many years, both the EU and the United States had relatively well-developed external democracy support policies, but very little aimed inward at protecting their own democratic norms and institutions. This rested on the assumption that democracy was not seriously at risk internally. Recent trends have shattered that assumption.

Professor Youngs explained that the policy equation has now shifted. More European attention is being directed toward democratic resilience within Europe itself. Initial efforts are emerging to share lessons among member states, and he suggested that this could be extended to transatlantic cooperation. Given the political situation in the United States, this may not currently involve governmental actors, but there is considerable room for exchange among civic actors, protest movements, electoral experts, and digital democracy specialists. Professor Youngs identified the EU’s regulatory experience in the digital sphere as potentially relevant for the American context. At the same time, he emphasized that both Europe and the United States face the challenge of supporting many small grassroots efforts while ensuring that they acquire larger political significance. This, he suggested, is one of the weakest points in both contexts and perhaps the most promising area for mutual learning.

Professor Jones added that many Americans have drawn hope from the recent experiences of Hungary and Poland. In the United States, he argued, the struggle is increasingly coming down to voting, especially in the next midterm elections. The ability of Hungarian voters to remove a populist leader after 16 years has generated interest and even amazement among some American observers. Professor Jones suggested that the European experience may be most useful for the United States in showing how grassroots mobilization and effective voting can remove entrenched populist leaders. He added that while grassroots mobilization has been relatively successful in the United States, the political system has made it difficult to translate that energy into effective day-to-day opposition in Washington.

Professor Youngs responded by explaining how the Hungarian election is being interpreted in Brussels. The dominant reading, he said, is that the opposition made the right strategic choice by focusing intensely on corruption and avoiding being drawn into identity-war battles. He acknowledged that the reality is likely more complex, and that only some elements of the Hungarian experience are relevant to the United States. He also noted that Hungary’s EU membership likely acted as a secondary constraint on Orbán. Had Orbán attempted to falsify the elections in an overt way, Hungary’s EU membership would have been seriously jeopardized. In that sense, the EU functioned as a kind of external buttress, helping preserve enough political space for the opposition to retain a competitive chance.

Cordon Sanitaire and Electoral Signals

ECPS Chair Selçuk Gültaşlı then asked two related questions. First, he asked about the state of the cordon sanitaire against the far right in Europe and EU institutions, particularly given cooperation between the European People’s Party (EPP) and far-right blocs in the European Parliament. Second, he asked for Professor Youngs’ reading of Orbán’s defeat in Hungary and whether its implications for the future of far-right politics in Europe are being exaggerated or underestimated.

Professor Youngs responded by noting that the cordon sanitaire varies significantly across institutional and national contexts. In the European Parliament, there is clear concern because the traditional pro-EU coalition that had long dominated parliamentary dynamics has weakened. The center-right’s willingness to cooperate with far-right groups on some policy files has disrupted this earlier pro-EU bloc. In many national parliaments, however, the cordon sanitaire remains more firmly in place. Professor Youngs emphasized the difficulty of the challenge: if mainstream parties cooperate with the far right, far-right policies risk becoming normalized; if all other forces coalesce against the far right, the far right may use exclusion to strengthen its anti-establishment appeal.

Professor Youngs stated that the key question is whether cooperation between center-right and far-right parties on specific policy issues will become a systemic threat to democracy. He did not believe that this conclusion can yet be drawn definitively, but warned that such cooperation may open a slippery slope toward a broader democratic impact.

Returning to the question of Orbán’s defeat, Professor Youngs cautioned against interpreting it as a complete watershed moment for the European far right. The defeat is clearly good news for liberal democracy, but far-right fortunes across Europe fluctuate according to national circumstances. A far-right party may lose in one country and perform strongly in another soon afterward. The Bulgarian elections, he noted, point in a different direction from Hungary. Thus, he argued, Europe is likely to see continued fluctuation rather than either an inexorable rise or a uniform decline of far-right politics.

Poland’s Recovery Dilemma

The final question came from Matin Nikookar Ardestani, who drew on the Polish context. He observed that although the centrist, liberal-democratic, pro-EU coalition won the parliamentary election, the populist right returned through the presidential election, while the anti-populist coalition appears to have declined in support. At the same time, liberal-centrist parties seem to be adopting positions on migration, LGBTQ issues, and other cultural questions that were previously associated with right-wing populists. He asked how Professor Youngs would explain this policy shift and its correlation with declining support for liberal-centrist forces.

Professor Youngs responded by situating Poland within the broader EU dilemma of democratic recovery. He argued that fear of the far right returning to power encouraged the EU to provide generous and rapid support to Poland after the 2023 election, even before the government had fully implemented its promised democratic reforms. The new government faces the enormous challenge of dismantling or reforming a captured state apparatus built over many years by its predecessor, while doing so without violating core democratic procedures. Because of concern that the far right could return, the EU has been highly supportive of Poland, despite the fact that its democratic reform record still leaves room for improvement.

Professor Youngs suggested that this experience may shape the EU’s approach to Hungary, where it may impose tougher conditions before releasing withheld funds. He acknowledged that expectations for the Polish government after 2023 were very high, and that frustration has grown because reforms have not progressed as quickly or fully as many hoped. For Professor Youngs, the Polish case illustrates a difficult balancing act: the EU wants to support governments that move in a pro-European direction, but if it releases leverage too quickly, it may weaken its ability to encourage deeper democratic recovery.

Taken together, the discussion following Professor Youngs’ keynote underscored the complexity of democratic resilience in Europe. The exchange showed that the EU’s challenge is not only to defend democracy against external threats but also to confront internal contradictions: restrictions on protest rights, the mainstreaming of far-right policy preferences, the erosion of the cordon sanitaire, and the difficulty of restoring democracy after state capture. The discussion also highlighted the importance of comparative and transatlantic learning, especially around grassroots mobilization, electoral strategy, and institutional safeguards. Throughout the exchange, Professor Youngs maintained the balanced assessment that characterized his keynote: EU democratic resilience policy has advanced, but it remains incomplete, uneven, and often more reactive than transformative.

 

Conclusion

Professor Richard Youngs’ keynote and the ensuing discussion offered a nuanced assessment of the European Union’s emerging democratic resilience agenda. The central insight was that the EU has moved beyond rhetorical concern and begun to develop concrete instruments—such as the Democracy Shield, digital regulation, rule-of-law conditionality, civic participation mechanisms, and support for democratic actors. Yet these initiatives remain uneven, fragmented, and more advanced in some areas than others.

A key contribution of Professor Youngs’ analysis was his insistence that democratic resilience cannot be reduced to defensive responses against external threats. While disinformation, foreign interference, and digital manipulation remain serious concerns, Europe’s democratic vulnerabilities are also internal: weakened civic space, contested protest rights, far-right normalization, migration politics, declining trust, and the EU’s own democratic deficit. The discussion on pro-Palestinian activism, migration policy, and the cordon sanitaire underscored how difficult it is for the EU to defend democracy while managing sharp political divisions among member states.

The session also highlighted the unresolved challenge of democratic recovery. Poland and Hungary illustrate that removing or weakening autocratizing actors does not automatically restore democratic norms. Rebuilding institutions after state capture requires careful strategies that avoid reproducing undemocratic methods. Professor Youngs’ warning that the EU may have released leverage too quickly in Poland points to the need for a more systematic recovery framework.

In sum, the keynote showed that European democratic resilience is possible but not yet fully operationalized. The EU has developed promising tools, but it still lacks a holistic strategy connecting rule of law, civic mobilization, institutional reform, democratic recovery, and bottom-up pluralism. The task ahead is not merely to shield democracy from crisis, but to renew it.

Labour Day celebrations

ECPS Symposium 2026 / Panel 3: Normalizing Authoritarian Populism — Institutions, Algorithms, and Fascist Drift

Please cite as:
ECPS Staff. (2026). “ECPS Symposium 2026 / Panel 3: Normalizing Authoritarian Populism — Institutions, Algorithms, and Fascist Drift.” European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). April 28, 2026. https://doi.org/10.55271/rp00151

 

The third panel of the ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium examined how authoritarian populism becomes normalized across institutions, media ecosystems, and political identities. Bringing together perspectives from political science, media studies, and political theory, the session highlighted the interplay between executive overreach, institutional erosion, and algorithmically amplified communication. Contributions by Professor Larry Diamond and Professor Bruce Cain underscored the dynamics of democratic backsliding and “autocratic drift” within the United States, while Assoc. Prof. Ibrahim Al-Marashi demonstrated how AI-driven media and “slopaganda” reshape populist mobilization in a hyperreal digital environment. Concluding the panel, Professor Tariq Modood proposed multicultural nationalism as a unifying alternative to exclusionary populism. Collectively, the panel offered a multidimensional framework for understanding and resisting contemporary authoritarian trajectories.

Reported by ECPS Staff

Third Panel of the ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium, “Reforming and Safeguarding Liberal Democracy: Systemic Crises, Populism, and Democratic Resilience,” convened under the title “Normalizing Authoritarian Populism: Institutions, Algorithms, and Fascist Drift.” Moderated by Professor Werner Pascha, Emeritus Professor of Economics at Duisburg-Essen University and affiliated with the Institute of East Asian Studies (IN-EAST), the panel examined how authoritarian populism becomes normalized through institutional weakening, executive overreach, media transformation, algorithmic amplification, and exclusionary forms of nationalism.

Professor Pascha guided the session as a moderator attentive to both institutional and conceptual linkages. His role was especially important in bringing together the panel’s diverse disciplinary perspectives—from comparative democratization and American political institutions to media studies, war narratives, and multicultural political theory—into a coherent discussion on the contemporary vulnerabilities of liberal democracy.

The panel opened with Professor Larry Diamond, William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute, and Bass University Fellow. In his presentation, “The Arc of Authoritarian Populism in the US under Donald Trump, How Far It Has Progressed, and the Prospects of Reversing It,” Professor Diamond assessed the trajectory of authoritarian populism in the United States, drawing on V-Dem indicators and comparative lessons from Hungary, Poland, and Turkey. He emphasized electoral manipulation, corruption, attacks on institutions, and the importance of broad democratic mobilization.

The second speaker, Professor Bruce Cain, Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and Director of the Bill Lane Center, presented “The Institutional Enablement of American Populism.” Professor Cain offered a measured analysis of autocratic drift in the United States, distinguishing between rule-of-law erosion and longer-term shifts in America’s federalized institutional structure. His remarks highlighted executive power, emergency authority, judicial interpretation, federalism, and the political economy of democratic resilience.

The third presentation, “Algorithmic Populism in the Age of the Deep-Fake,” was delivered by Assoc. Prof. Ibrahim Al-Marashi, Associate Professor at The American College of the Mediterranean and the Department of International Relations at Central European University. Assoc. Prof. Al-Marashi explored how AI-generated media, memes, “slopaganda,” and hyperreal digital narratives reshape war, propaganda, and populist communication.

The final speaker, Professor Tariq Modood, Professor of Sociology, Politics and Public Policy at the University of Bristol, presented “From Populist Capture to Democratic Belonging: Multicultural Nationalism as an Alternative to Exclusionary Nationalism.” Professor Modood proposed multicultural nationalism as a constructive response to exclusionary populism, seeking to integrate majority anxieties and minority vulnerabilities within a shared framework of equal citizenship and belonging.

Together, the panel offered a rich interdisciplinary account of how authoritarian populism is institutionalized, mediated, normalized, and potentially resisted.

 

Professor Larry Diamond: The Arc of Authoritarian Populism in the US under Donald Trump, How Far It Has Progressed, and the Prospects of Reversing It  

Professor Larry Diamond, a renowned expert on democratic development and Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

As the first speaker of the third panel, Professor Larry Diamond delivered a wide-ranging and analytically grounded presentation that examined the trajectory of authoritarian populism and the prospects for reversing democratic backsliding. Moving briskly through his slides, Professor Diamond framed his remarks around two central questions: how far authoritarian populism has advanced, and what strategies may effectively counter its expansion. Drawing in part on V-Dem data as well as arguments developed in his book Ill Winds, Professor Diamond outlined what he described as an “autocrat’s 12-step program,” emphasizing the cumulative and systematic nature of democratic erosion.

While not elaborating each step in detail, Professor Diamond underscored the critical importance of electoral manipulation and control, identifying it as the decisive stage in authoritarian consolidation. He noted that this dimension often determines whether democratic decline becomes entrenched, referencing recent developments in Hungary as a salient example. Turning to the United States, Professor Diamond traced the evolution of authoritarian tendencies under Donald Trump, emphasizing both continuity from the first term and new developments in the second.

Executive Power and Erosion

Among the defining features identified by Professor Diamond were the use of political pressure to deter intra-party dissent, particularly among Republican legislators, and the expansion of attacks on independent institutions, including law firms, universities, and media organizations. He highlighted the increasing concentration of media ownership in the hands of political allies, suggesting that such developments have already begun to shape editorial practices in major outlets. In addition, Professor Diamond pointed to the erosion of conflict-of-interest norms, arguing that corruption has become deeply embedded within the governing project and may ultimately prove politically destabilizing.

Further institutional concerns included the dismissal of inspectors general, the impoundment of congressionally appropriated funds, and the transformation of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) into a broader instrument of political enforcement. Professor Diamond also emphasized attempts to weaponize the Justice Department and to gain control over electoral administration, including efforts to weaken election security infrastructure. These actions, in his view, reflected a coherent strategy aimed at consolidating executive power.

Assessing the extent of democratic decline, Professor Diamond drew on V-Dem indicators to demonstrate a significant deterioration in the United States’ liberal democracy score. He highlighted a particularly sharp decline during the first year of Trump’s second presidency, noting that the country has shifted from a high-performing liberal democracy to a more illiberal form. Quantitatively, he described a 28-point decline from the end of the Obama administration, a scale of regression comparable only to early developments under Viktor Orbán among advanced democracies.

Disaggregating these trends, Professor Diamond identified pronounced declines in academic freedom, freedom of expression, and legislative constraints on the executive. At the same time, he suggested that these constraints could partially recover depending on electoral outcomes, particularly if opposition parties regain control of one or both houses of Congress. This possibility led him to argue that the trajectory toward autocracy, while serious, has recently slowed.

Courts, Protests, and Declining Support

Several factors, according to Professor Diamond, have contributed to this deceleration. The judiciary, though uneven in its responses, has played a significant role. Lower federal courts have blocked numerous executive actions, while even the Supreme Court, despite issuing decisions that expand presidential authority, has begun to show signs of resistance. Professor Diamond pointed in particular to anticipated rulings on birthright citizenship as potential indicators of judicial limits.

Equally important, in his view, has been the scale and geographic breadth of public protest. Mass mobilizations, including demonstrations in both urban centers and traditionally conservative regions, have signaled widespread opposition. However, the most decisive constraint, Professor Diamond argued, is declining presidential popularity. He emphasized that public approval functions as a critical political resource, and that current approval ratings—marked by substantial negative margins—place the administration in a vulnerable position.

Electoral dynamics, he suggested, have also shifted. Policy decisions, including military engagement with Iran and its economic consequences, have contributed to declining support and may influence forthcoming elections. These developments, combined with structural features such as the Senate filibuster and the federal system, have limited the administration’s capacity to enact more sweeping institutional changes. Professor Diamond noted that resistance within the Senate, particularly regarding efforts to remove the filibuster, has been a key factor in constraining legislative overreach.

Electoral Integrity Under Pressure

Turning to governance capacity, Professor Diamond highlighted patterns of administrative instability and perceived incompetence. Frequent turnover in key positions, coupled with broader depletion of the federal workforce, has created gaps in institutional effectiveness. Drawing on observations from public service monitoring organizations, he warned that these deficiencies may have tangible consequences for crisis response and public service delivery, further undermining political legitimacy.

In the legal domain, Professor Diamond cited data indicating that federal courts have blocked a substantial number of executive actions, suggesting that judicial resistance has been more extensive than often assumed. Nonetheless, he cautioned that such interventions have not always been sufficient to prevent institutional damage, particularly when agencies are dismantled before legal remedies take effect.

A central concern in Professor Diamond’s analysis was the potential manipulation of electoral processes. He identified legislative initiatives such as the SAVE Act as instruments that could be used to restrict voter participation, and warned of more extreme scenarios involving the declaration of electoral emergencies or interference with vote counting. While acknowledging that such outcomes are contingent on political conditions, he stressed that close electoral contests increase their plausibility.

Strategies for Democratic Renewal

In concluding his presentation, Professor Diamond turned to strategies for democratic reversal. He emphasized the importance of early and coordinated intervention, noting that the probability of successful resistance increases when democratic actors mobilize before authoritarian consolidation is complete. Drawing on comparative examples, including recent electoral developments in Turkey, Poland, and Hungary, he highlighted the necessity of broad opposition unity and effective mobilization.

Importantly, Professor Diamond argued against adopting the polarizing tactics of authoritarian leaders, instead advocating for strategies that transcend political divisions and appeal to a wider electorate. He underscored the importance of addressing economic concerns and everyday issues, while also exposing vulnerabilities related to corruption and wealth concentration. Reclaiming national symbols and articulating an inclusive democratic vision were identified as key components of successful opposition strategies.

Finally, Professor Diamond stressed the importance of leadership. Effective democratic leadership, in his view, must project optimism, confidence, and strength, offering a compelling alternative to authoritarian narratives. Through this combination of institutional analysis and strategic reflection, Professor Diamond provided a comprehensive assessment of both the challenges posed by authoritarian populism and the conditions under which democratic resilience may be restored.

 

Professor Bruce Cain: The Institutional Enablement of American Populism

Bruce E. Cain is Professor of Political Science, Stanford University; Director, Bill Lane Center.

As the second speaker of the third panel, Professor Bruce E. Cain presented an institutionally grounded analysis. Positioning his remarks between alarmist and dismissive interpretations, Professor Cain described himself as “seriously concerned,” offering a measured assessment of democratic change in the United States. His intervention built upon earlier contributions while introducing a distinctive analytical framework centered on institutional dynamics, historical precedents, and the structural features of American governance.

At the outset, Professor Cain engaged directly with the empirical evidence of democratic decline, particularly the V-Dem data referenced throughout the symposium. While acknowledging the sharp downward trajectory, he emphasized that the decline effectively returns the United States to levels comparable to the mid-twentieth century. This regression, he argued, is normatively troubling given subsequent democratic reforms, yet it does not constitute a transition to outright autocracy. Rather, Professor Cain conceptualized the current situation as “autocratic drift”—a directional movement that erodes democratic quality without fully dismantling democratic status. This distinction, he suggested, is essential for maintaining analytical clarity.

Trump as Accelerator, Not Origin

Structuring his presentation around two central questions, Professor Cain first addressed whether autocratic drift has occurred and whether it is attributable to Donald Trump. He answered affirmatively, while also emphasizing that such drift must be understood in context. His second question concerned normalization: whether these changes are becoming embedded in institutional practice and therefore more difficult to reverse. This latter issue, he indicated, is closely tied to the problem of reversibility raised by other speakers.

A key contribution of Professor Cain’s analysis lies in his differentiation between two forms of autocratic drift. The first pertains to the erosion of the rule of law and fundamental democratic principles. The second concerns shifts in the distinctive institutional structure of the United States, characterized by a highly federalized and fragmented system of governance. This dual framework allowed Professor Cain to separate concerns about core democratic norms from changes in institutional balance, arguing that while both are significant, the former poses a more serious threat.

In discussing the institutional structure of American democracy, Professor Cain emphasized the importance of federalism and the vertical and horizontal fragmentation of power. He noted that while unified partisan control—so-called “trifecta government”—can weaken horizontal checks, vertical fragmentation remains a critical source of resistance. State and local governments retain substantial autonomy, complicating efforts to centralize authority. This institutional design, he argued, was deliberately constructed to prevent the concentration of power, and continues to function as a constraint on executive overreach.

At the same time, Professor Cain acknowledged that the very features that limit executive power can also produce governance difficulties, particularly under conditions of polarization. The paralysis associated with divided government has encouraged successive administrations—both Democratic and Republican—to rely increasingly on executive actions as institutional workarounds. In this sense, Professor Cain argued that autocratic drift predates Trump and reflects longer-term adaptations within the American system. Trump, in this framework, is both an accelerant and an innovator: he has intensified existing practices while also introducing new forms of institutional challenge.

From Institutional Change to Norm Erosion

Historically situating these developments, Professor Cain traced shifts in the balance of power between branches of government. The nineteenth century, he noted, was characterized by strong legislatures, while the Progressive Era marked a transition toward stronger executive authority. A partial reassertion of legislative power followed Watergate, but recent decades have again seen movement toward executive dominance. These oscillations, in his view, suggest that institutional balance is inherently dynamic, and that not all shifts toward executive power necessarily constitute democratic breakdown.

However, Professor Cain distinguished this structural evolution from the more troubling erosion of the rule of law. He identified several areas where recent developments represent a significant departure from established norms. Foremost among these was the attempt to disrupt the electoral process in 2020, which he described as a “serious and almost unthinkable act.” He also highlighted the pardoning of individuals involved in the January 6 events, noting that the combination of expansive pardon powers and judicially affirmed presidential immunity creates a particularly concerning institutional configuration.

In this regard, Professor Cain emphasized that the interaction between legal immunity and pardon authority raises the risk that individuals may engage in unlawful actions on behalf of the executive, anticipating protection from legal consequences. This possibility, he suggested, is a central concern within the election law community, which has responded by increasing monitoring efforts and preparing legal challenges. Despite these risks, Professor Cain expressed cautious optimism, citing the failure of many previous legal challenges to succeed and the presence of institutional actors willing to resist.

Executive Power and Conflict-of-Interest Gaps

Another dimension of rule-of-law erosion identified by Professor Cain was the use of public office for personal enrichment. He pointed out that the president is uniquely exempt from conflict-of-interest regulations, creating opportunities for financial gain that extend beyond direct transactions to include networks of associates and affiliates. This structural gap, he argued, undermines anti-corruption efforts and poses a significant challenge for reform.

Turning to the issue of normalization, Professor Cain argued that contemporary developments are partly rooted in earlier precedents. Instances of misconduct by previous administrations—across party lines—have contributed to a gradual lowering of normative standards. Trump’s actions, in this context, represent an amplification rather than a complete departure. This cumulative process, he suggested, increases the risk that practices once considered exceptional may become institutionalized.

Professor Cain also addressed the role of the judiciary, particularly the use of the “shadow docket,” whereby courts allow contested policies to remain in effect pending review. He suggested that recent criticism of this practice may prompt judicial recalibration, though its long-term implications remain uncertain. Similarly, he discussed the politicization of judicial appointments, linking it to procedural changes such as the elimination of the filibuster for judicial nominees, which has facilitated partisan control over the courts.

In examining the broader institutional landscape, Professor Cain identified multiple factors contributing to the concentration of executive power, including the expansion of unilateral war powers, the use of emergency authorities, and the increasing reliance on executive orders. He emphasized that these developments are not confined to a single administration, but reflect broader systemic trends shaped by both parties.

Reversibility and Enduring Change

In considering reversibility, Professor Cain suggested that many recent changes could be undone relatively quickly, particularly those associated with executive actions. However, deeper institutional shifts—especially those affecting legal interpretations and structural balances—may prove more enduring. The future direction of the judiciary, particularly regarding the unitary executive theory, will be a critical factor in this regard.

In his concluding remarks, Professor Cain introduced a provocative argument concerning the relationship between democracy and capitalism. He observed that the United States’ institutional stability has historically supported a favorable business environment, and suggested that disruptions caused by executive unpredictability may undermine this stability. He further posited that, for many voters, economic considerations may outweigh concerns about democratic norms. In this sense, the political consequences of current developments may be driven as much by economic performance as by institutional integrity.

Ultimately, Professor Cain’s presentation offered a layered and historically informed analysis of autocratic drift in the United States. By distinguishing between different forms of institutional change and situating contemporary developments within longer-term trajectories, he provided a framework that highlights both the resilience and the vulnerabilities of American democracy.

 

Associate Professor Al Marashi: Algorithmic Populism in the Age of the Deep-Fake

Dr. Ibrahim Al-Marashi—Associate Professor at Department of History, California State University, San Marcos.

As the third speaker of the session, Associate Professor Al Marashi delivered a conceptually rich and interdisciplinary presentation that brought together insights from history and media studies to examine the evolving relationship between warfare, communication technologies, and populism. His intervention underscored the rapid transformation of contemporary conflict environments, emphasizing that the analytical frameworks used to interpret war must adapt to the accelerating pace of technological change—particularly the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and digitally mediated communication.

Assoc. Prof. Al Marashi opened by noting the obsolescence of his earlier research on what he had initially framed as the “12-Day War,” explaining that subsequent developments had already rendered that framing outdated. Instead, he proposed understanding the current situation as a prolonged and continuous conflict—extending to approximately forty days—thereby challenging conventional temporal boundaries used in historical analysis. From a geopolitical perspective, he suggested that this conflict could be interpreted as the third Gulf War from a United States vantage point, and the fourth from the perspective of the Gulf region. This reframing illustrated the fluidity of contemporary conflict narratives and the difficulty of capturing them in real time.

From CNN to Slopaganda

Central to Assoc. Prof. Al Marashi’s argument was the interplay between media evolution and the conduct of war. He traced a historical trajectory beginning with the 1991 Gulf War, often referred to as the “CNN War,” which marked the emergence of the 24-hour news cycle and introduced a model of continuous, real-time broadcast coverage. This phase, characterized by one-way communication, allowed audiences to consume war as a mediated spectacle, reinforcing a centralized narrative shaped by state and corporate media institutions.

He then contrasted this with the 2003 Iraq War, which he described as the “Al Jazeera War,” highlighting the emergence of alternative global media platforms that challenged Western-centric narratives. The early presence of blogs during this period signaled the beginnings of participatory media, although such participation remained limited in scope. These developments, according to Assoc. Prof. Al Marashi, laid the groundwork for the current media environment, in which social media, Web 2.0 technologies, and AI-driven content production have fundamentally transformed the dynamics of information dissemination.

In this contemporary phase, Assoc. Prof. Al Marashi introduced the concept of “slopaganda,” referring to the proliferation of AI-generated content—often low-quality but highly viral—that saturates digital platforms. Unlike earlier forms of propaganda, which were largely centralized and controlled by state actors, slopaganda operates in a decentralized and participatory environment. This shift enables not only governments but also individuals to generate and disseminate persuasive content at unprecedented speed and scale.

AI, Hyperreality, and Memetic Warfare

Drawing on Marshall McLuhan’s famous dictum that “the medium is the message,” Assoc. Prof. Al Marashi argued that the significance of AI-generated media lies not only in its content but in its form. The ease with which such content can be created and shared transforms the very nature of political communication. In the context of populism, this facilitates direct engagement with mass audiences, bypassing traditional intermediaries and amplifying the personalization of political narratives.

Assoc. Prof. Al Marashi illustrated this dynamic through examples of AI-generated imagery depicting political leaders in exaggerated, often mythologized forms. These representations contribute to the construction of a digital “cult of personality,” reinforcing populist leadership styles while simultaneously creating easily recognizable targets for opposition narratives. This dual function—both consolidating support and inviting critique—highlights the interactive nature of contemporary propaganda ecosystems.

To further conceptualize this transformation, Assoc. Prof. Al Marashi invoked the work of Jean Baudrillard, particularly the notion of hyperreality. He revisited Baudrillard’s controversial claim that the 1991 Gulf War “did not take place,” clarifying that the argument referred not to the absence of physical conflict but to the dominance of mediated representations over lived experience. In the current context, Assoc. Prof. Al Marashi suggested that AI-generated media intensifies this condition, producing a form of warfare that exists simultaneously in physical and digital domains.

A key feature of this new media environment, as highlighted by Assoc. Prof. Al Marashi, is the participatory nature of content production. Unlike earlier conflicts, where propaganda was disseminated through hierarchical channels, contemporary warfare involves widespread public engagement in the creation and circulation of narratives. Metrics such as likes, shares, and comments become integral to the propagation of these narratives, transforming audiences into active participants in what he described as “memetic warfare.”

Personalized War and Symbolic Power

Assoc. Prof. Al Marashi also examined the personalization of conflict narratives, noting that contemporary wars are often framed around central political figures. In this case, he identified the prominence of a single leader as the focal point of one side’s narrative, while observing that the opposing side’s representation relied on a different kind of symbolic figure—one that may not occupy a formal leadership position but nonetheless becomes a viral emblem of resistance.

This observation led Assoc. Prof. Al Marashi to a deeper exploration of the cultural and historical dimensions of political representation, particularly in the Iranian context. He argued that understanding the nature of Iranian political communication requires engagement with the historical and religious traditions of Shiism, especially the concept of martyrdom rooted in the Battle of Karbala. This tradition, centered on the figures of Imam Ali and Imam Hussein, provides a powerful symbolic framework through which contemporary political events are interpreted.

Assoc. Prof. Al Marashi emphasized that this framework differs fundamentally from Western conceptions of political succession and legitimacy. Rather than viewing leadership transitions through a purely institutional or dynastic lens, the Iranian context incorporates elements of charismatic authority and inherited symbolic meaning. The notion of martyrdom, he suggested, serves as a potent mobilizing force, capable of generating emotional resonance and collective identity.

Importantly, Assoc. Prof. Al Marashi noted that the absence of a central figure in certain visual representations does not diminish their impact. On the contrary, the symbolic power of absence—rooted in the historical narratives of Shiism—can enhance the effectiveness of these representations. In this sense, the production of memes and viral content becomes intertwined with deeply embedded cultural narratives, creating a hybrid form of communication that blends tradition with technological innovation.

War in the Age of Digital Hallucination

In concluding his presentation, Assoc. Prof. Al Marashi returned to the broader theoretical implications of his analysis. Drawing on the science fiction writer William Gibson’s concept of cyberspace as a “consensual hallucination,” he argued that AI-driven media environments create a new kind of political reality—one that exists beyond physical space yet exerts tangible influence on perceptions and behavior. This “political hallucination,” as he described it, challenges conventional distinctions between reality and representation.

Assoc. Prof. Al Marashi’s final reflection posed a provocative question: whether the contemporary conflict, as experienced through these mediated forms, can be said to have “taken place” in the traditional sense. By framing the war as both a physical and a digital phenomenon, he invited a reconsideration of how scholars conceptualize and analyze conflict in the age of AI and networked communication.

Overall, Assoc. Prof. Al Marashi’s presentation offered a compelling synthesis of historical perspective and media theory, highlighting the transformative impact of digital technologies on the practice of warfare and the dynamics of populism. His analysis underscored the need for interdisciplinary approaches to understanding contemporary conflicts, as well as the importance of adapting analytical frameworks to the rapidly evolving landscape of global communication.

 

Professor Tariq Modood: From Populist Capture to Democratic Belonging –Multicultural Nationalism as an Alternative to Exclusionary Nationalism 

Professor Tariq Modood, the founding Director of the Bristol University Research Centre for the Study of Ethnicity and Citizenship.

As the final speaker of the third panel, Professor Tariq Modood presented a theoretically grounded and normatively oriented intervention that addressed one of the central ideological tensions of contemporary politics: the relationship between populist nationalism and multiculturalism. His presentation sought not merely to critique exclusionary nationalist narratives but to articulate a constructive alternative capable of reconciling majority and minority identities within a shared political framework.

Professor Modood began by outlining the core challenge posed by populist forms of exclusionary nationalism, which frequently depict multiculturalism as privileging minorities at the expense of the majority. In response, he argued that analytical critique alone is insufficient. Instead, what is required is a positive and politically viable framework that affirms the normative status of both majorities and minorities. This framework, which he termed “multicultural nationalism,” aims to cultivate a shared sense of belonging that does not demand the erasure of distinct identities.

Pluralistic Nationhood and Shared Identity

Central to Professor Modood’s conceptualization of multiculturalism is the notion of subgroup identity. He defined multiculturalism as the right of subgroups—understood as communities smaller than the polity as a whole—to have their identities recognized and incorporated within the framework of equal citizenship. This recognition is not limited to symbolic affirmation but extends to institutional accommodation and the reconfiguration of public identity. In this sense, multiculturalism involves a transformation of the national community itself, enabling previously marginalized groups to participate in shaping the collective identity on equal terms.

A key dimension of this process, as emphasized by Professor Modood, is the principle of mutual or dialogical recognition. Rejecting the idea that recognition operates in a one-directional manner—where some groups bestow recognition while others receive it—he argued that all members of the polity must participate as both givers and receivers of recognition. This reciprocity is essential for establishing a genuinely inclusive form of citizenship, in which belonging is co-constructed rather than unilaterally granted.

Professor Modood further clarified the relationship between majority and minority rights within this framework. Contrary to populist claims that minority rights undermine majority status, he argued that the rights of minorities are logically grounded in the pre-existing rights of majorities. Majorities already benefit from a national culture and identity that reflects their historical experiences and values. Extending similar recognition to minorities, therefore, is not a matter of granting special privileges but of ensuring equal participation in the shared national project. Multicultural citizenship, in this view, entails a continuous process of remaking national identity to accommodate diverse contributions.

This perspective led Professor Modood to distinguish multicultural nationalism from liberal nationalism. While liberal nationalism emphasizes individual rights, redistribution, and a neutral or secular public sphere, multicultural nationalismforegrounds the recognition of group identities, including ethno-religious communities. Moreover, he challenged the liberal nationalist notion that national culture should be “thinned” to minimize alienation among minorities. Instead, he proposed a process of “pluralistic thickening,” whereby the national culture is enriched through the inclusion of diverse identities. This additive approach seeks to expand, rather than dilute, the symbolic and cultural content of the nation.

Inclusive Nationhood Against Polarization

In addressing the contemporary political context, Professor Modood identified three key contributions that multicultural nationalism can make in responding to polarization and populism. First, he distinguished multiculturalism from cosmopolitan human rights frameworks, emphasizing that it is not inherently linked to open-border policies or specific immigration regimes. Rather than focusing on immigration, multiculturalism is concerned with citizenship and the formation of a shared “we.” This distinction allows it to engage with concerns about migration without adopting positions that may alienate segments of the electorate.

Second, Professor Modood highlighted the importance of addressing identity anxieties, particularly those experienced by majority populations. While multiculturalism has traditionally focused on minority vulnerabilities, he argued that it must also take seriously the concerns of majorities, which are often dismissed in public discourse. Recognizing these anxieties does not entail endorsing exclusionary views but rather integrating them into a broader framework of mutual respect and understanding. This approach seeks to move beyond polarized narratives that pit majority and minority identities against each other.

Third, Professor Modood emphasized the centrality of national identity in sustaining democratic citizenship. He argued that citizenship cannot function solely as a legal or institutional construct; it must be accompanied by a sense of belonging rooted in shared narratives and collective self-understanding. National identity, in this sense, is not static but continuously evolving, shaped by both historical legacies and contemporary agency. Multicultural nationalism embraces this dynamism, advocating for an inclusive national identity that reflects the diversity of the population while maintaining a coherent sense of collective purpose.

In elaborating this vision, Professor Modood stressed the need for institutional and symbolic reforms that support inclusion. These include accommodating the specific needs of minority communities, particularly in relation to ethno-religious practices, as well as reimagining public symbols and spaces to reflect a more diverse national narrative. Such measures are intended to foster a sense of belonging among all citizens, reinforcing the legitimacy of the national community.

Multicultural Nationalism as a Middle Path

In his concluding remarks, Professor Modood presented multicultural nationalism as a feasible and necessary alternative to the current dichotomy between monocultural nationalism and anti-nationalist or purely cosmopolitan approaches. By affirming the value of collective identities—both majority and minority—within the framework of equal citizenship, it offers a unifying political vision capable of bridging ideological divides. Importantly, this vision does not abandon the principles of multiculturalism but seeks to integrate them more fully into the concept of the nation.

Overall, Professor Modood’s presentation provided a sophisticated normative framework for addressing the challenges posed by populism and polarization. By reconciling the demands of diversity with the need for shared belonging, his concept of multicultural nationalism offers a pathway toward a more inclusive and resilient democratic order.

Discussions

The discussion at the end of the panel extended the presentations’ core concerns by focusing on institutional reform, executive discretion, emergency powers, constitutional safeguards, and the practical meaning of multicultural nationalism. The exchange brought together questions of democratic vulnerability in the United States with broader normative reflections on national identity and belonging.

Professor Kent Jones opened the discussion by identifying a central institutional dilemma in the American system: the broad deference often granted to presidential discretion. He noted that many legal and constitutional questions depend on executive judgment, particularly in areas framed as emergencies. Whether a situation qualifies as an emergency, whether emergency tariffs are justified, or whether extraordinary powers may be invoked often depends heavily on presidential interpretation. In the current context, this becomes especially troubling because, as Professor Jones observed, almost any justification may be constructed as an “emergency” if institutional constraints are weak.

Professor Jones connected this concern directly to anxieties surrounding future elections. If a president can define emergencies expansively, such powers could be used to justify extraordinary measures, including martial law, deployment of enforcement agencies near polling places, or other interventions that could intimidate voters or disrupt electoral administration. He therefore asked whether meaningful reform would require changes in judicial doctrine, statutory law, or even constitutional amendment, particularly in relation to powers such as presidential pardons.

Procedural Limits on Executive Authority

Responding first, Professor Bruce E. Cain agreed that reforms are necessary, though he cautioned that reliance on constitutional amendment would be unrealistic. He outlined two possible approaches. The first would be to define “emergency” more precisely in law, thereby limiting the executive’s capacity to invoke emergency powers arbitrarily. Yet Professor Cain also recognized the practical difficulty of this path: genuine emergencies may be unpredictable, and excessively rigid definitions might hinder legitimate executive action in unforeseen crises.

For that reason, Professor Cain emphasized a procedural solution modeled on the War Powers Act. Rather than trying to define every emergency in advance, he argued that arbitrary executive power should require subsequent validation by another branch of government, especially Congress. In this model, the executive could act initially, but legislative affirmation would be required within a specified period. Such a framework would force members of Congress to go on record, preventing them from hiding behind presidential action while avoiding political responsibility.

Professor Cain’s response highlighted a deeper institutional problem: the American constitutional system assumes that Congress will defend its own prerogatives. Yet under conditions of polarization and professionalized politics, legislators may be less interested in preserving institutional authority than in avoiding political risk or pursuing career advancement. As a result, Congress may fail to resist executive overreach even when its constitutional role is being weakened. Professor Cain suggested that courts may need to play a stronger role in compelling Congress to live up to its own laws and procedural responsibilities.

Professor Larry Diamond largely endorsed Professor Cain’s analysis, describing himself as strongly aligned with his approach. However, he offered one “friendly amendment” to Professor Cain’s skepticism about constitutional reform. Professor Diamond proposed that one constitutional amendment might be both politically viable and democratically valuable: a requirement that any presidential pardon take effect only with two-thirds approval of the United States Senate. In his view, the abuse of the pardon power has become a serious threat to liberal democracy, especially when combined with executive immunity and loyalty-based political networks. A president who voluntarily proposed such a constraint at the beginning of a new administration, Professor Diamond argued, would make a visionary democratic gesture and place opponents in a difficult political position.

Defining Nationhood in Plural Societies

Professor Werner Pascha
Professor Werner Pascha is an Emeritus Professor of East Asian Economic Studies (Japan and Korea) and Associate Member of the Institute of East Asian Studies (IN-EAST) at the University of Duisburg-Essen.

The discussion then turned from American institutional design to the normative and political content of multicultural nationalismProfessor Werner Pascha addressed Professor Modood’s concept directly, noting its relevance to countries such as Germany, where debates over national identity remain intense and unresolved. He asked what the concrete content of multicultural nationalism might be and how one might answer the question of what it means to be German, British, French, or American in a plural society.

Professor Tariq Modood responded by affirming the value of national debates about identity. For him, multiculturalism is fundamentally dialogical: it requires listening, learning, negotiation, and, where possible, compromise. He stressed that such dialogue does not always produce easy consensus and may sometimes remain unresolved. Yet it is still essential because national identity cannot be imposed unilaterally if it is to include all citizens.

Professor Modood used Britain as his principal example. He argued that the British case has been shaped by two important factors. First, Britain has been influenced by American debates over hyphenated identities, such as Irish American, Jewish American, and Black American. Second, Britain has long been a multinational polity, incorporating Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and broader plural traditions. These historical conditions have made it somewhat easier to imagine Britishness in plural terms. If one can be Scottish-British, Professor Modood suggested, then the idea of being Black British or British Muslim becomes less anomalous.

In institutional terms, Professor Modood pointed especially to education and the school curriculum. A multicultural national identity would require teaching national history, geography, literature, and civic belonging in ways that recognize contemporary diversity and its relationship to the past. This includes confronting difficult histories such as empire and slavery. Such engagement, he argued, is not a threat to national unity but a condition for building a more inclusive and credible national narrative.

 

Conclusion

The third panel of the symposium brought into sharp relief the multidimensional processes through which authoritarian populism is not only advanced but also normalized across institutional, communicative, and ideological domains. Taken together, the contributions of Professor Larry Diamond, Professor Bruce E. Cain, Assoc. Prof. Ibrahim Al-Marashi, and Professor Tariq Modood underscore that contemporary democratic backsliding cannot be reduced to a single trajectory or causal mechanism. Rather, it emerges through the interaction of institutional vulnerabilities, political agency, technological transformation, and competing visions of collective identity.

A central analytical thread running through the panel is the distinction between erosion and consolidation. As Professor Diamond emphasized, the trajectory of authoritarian populism is cumulative, often advancing through incremental yet coordinated steps that target electoral integrity, institutional autonomy, and normative constraints. At the same time, Professor Cain’s concept of “autocratic drift” provides an important corrective to overly deterministic narratives, highlighting both the resilience and the fragility of democratic systems. His distinction between structural shifts in governance and the erosion of the rule of law clarifies that not all institutional change is equally consequential, even as both may contribute to a broader pattern of democratic weakening.

The panel also demonstrated that normalization operates not only through formal institutions but through the transformation of the public sphere. Assoc. Prof. Al-Marashi’s analysis of AI-driven media ecosystems revealed how the proliferation of “slopaganda” and hyperreal digital narratives reshapes the conditions under which political legitimacy is constructed and contested. In this environment, populist communication is amplified, personalized, and decentralized, blurring the boundaries between producers and consumers of political meaning. This shift complicates traditional understandings of propaganda and underscores the need to rethink democratic accountability in an era of algorithmic mediation.

Against this backdrop, Professor Modood’s intervention offers a normative horizon for democratic renewal. By articulating multicultural nationalism as an inclusive and dialogical framework, he addresses the identity-based anxieties that populist movements often exploit. His emphasis on mutual recognition, institutional accommodation, and the dynamic remaking of national identity suggests that democratic resilience depends not only on institutional safeguards but also on the capacity to construct a shared sense of belonging.

Finally, the panel discussion reinforced the urgency of institutional reform, particularly in relation to executive discretion, emergency powers, and constitutional safeguards. The exchanges between Professor Kent Jones, Professor Cain, and Professor Diamond highlighted both the difficulties and the necessity of recalibrating the balance of power in democratic systems. While no single reform can fully resolve these challenges, the emphasis on procedural accountability, legislative responsibility, and targeted constitutional change points toward a pragmatic path forward.

In sum, the panel illuminated both the depth of the current democratic crisis and the range of intellectual and political resources available to confront it. By integrating empirical analysis, institutional theory, media studies, and normative political thought, it provided a comprehensive framework for understanding—and ultimately resisting—the normalization of authoritarian populism.

Donald Trump

ECPS Symposium 2026 / Panel 2: Institutions Under Pressure — Rule of Law, Executive Power, and Democratic Defense

Please cite as:
ECPS Staff. (2026). “ECPS Symposium 2026 / Panel 2: Institutions Under Pressure — Rule of Law, Executive Power, and Democratic Defense.” European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). April 28, 2026.https://doi.org/10.55271/rp00150

 

Second panel of ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium examined how democracies confront coordinated pressures on courts, bureaucracies, electoral systems, and constitutional safeguards. Moderated by Yavuz Baydar, the session brought together Professor Susan C. Stokes, Dr. Robert Benson, Professor Barry Sullivan, and Professor Stephen E. Hanson to analyze both democratic erosion and possibilities for recovery. The panel moved from comparative evidence on how backsliding leaders leave office, to the transnational coordination of illiberal actors, the expansion of executive power under Trump’s second administration, and the patrimonial assault on rational-legal state institutions. Together, the speakers underscored that democratic defense requires coordinated resilience, institutional renewal, civic mobilization, and a renewed commitment to rule-bound governance.

Reported by ECPS Staff

Panel 2 of the ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium, Reforming and Safeguarding Liberal Democracy: Systemic Crises, Populism, and Democratic Resilience,” convened under the title “Institutions Under Pressure: Rule of Law, Executive Power, and Democratic Defense.” Moderated by Yavuz Baydar, blogger with Mediapart and columnist with Svenska Dagbladet, the panel examined how liberal democratic institutions respond when the rule of law, bureaucratic autonomy, constitutional safeguards, and electoral accountability come under sustained pressure.

Baydar framed the discussion around the urgent question of whether democratic systems possess the institutional and civic resources necessary to resist coordinated attacks from within. His moderation emphasized that contemporary democratic backsliding rarely takes the form of a single rupture. Rather, it unfolds through cumulative pressure on courts, civil services, electoral institutions, media systems, and oversight mechanisms. This framing gave the panel a coherent analytical direction: to understand not only how democracies erode, but also how they may recover, defend themselves, and rebuild resilience.

The first speaker, Professor Susan C. Stokes, Tiffany and Margaret Blake Distinguished Service Professor and Director of the Chicago Center on Democracy at the University of Chicago, shifted attention from the causes of democratic erosion to the question of how backsliding leaders leave power. Drawing on comparative evidence, she explored elections, term limits, party dynamics, protests, and impeachment as mechanisms of accountability and democratic recovery.

The second speaker, Dr. Robert Benson, Associate Director for National Security and International Policy at the Center for American Progress (CAP), widened the discussion to the transnational level. His presentation argued that attacks on liberal democracy are increasingly coordinated across borders through far-right networks, ideological circulation, institutional repurposing, and strategic inversion, requiring an equally coordinated democratic defense.

The third speaker, Professor Barry Sullivan, Raymond and Mary Simon Chair in Constitutional Law and George Anastaplo Professor of Constitutional Law and History at Loyola University, examined executive power in the United States under Trump’s second administration. His analysis focused principally on the erosion of separation of powers, the weakening of institutional guardrails, and the expansion of presidential authority through legal, political, and judicial developments during the first year of the second Trump administration.

The final speaker, Professor Stephen E. Hanson, Lettie Pate Evans Professor of Government at William & Mary, offered a broader theoretical reflection on democracy, state power, and regime change. Moving beyond the concept of populism, he argued that patrimonialism and the assault on rational-legal state institutions provide a more precise lens for understanding contemporary authoritarian drift.

Together, the panel offered a rich interdisciplinary account of institutional vulnerability and democratic defense. It showed that safeguarding liberal democracy requires not only electoral resistance, but also coordinated institutional renewal, civic mobilization, and a renewed commitment to the rule-bound democratic state.

 

Yavuz Baydar: From Democratic Erosion to Democratic Defense

Yavuz Baydar is a blogger with Mediapart and a columnist with Svenska Dagbladet.

The steering of moderator Yavuz Baydar provided a unifying and conceptually incisive thread throughout the second panel, shaping the discussion into a coherent exploration of democratic fragility and resistance. Opening the session, he framed the core themes—rule of law, executive power, and democratic defense—not as abstract principles, but as hard-won achievements now under visible strain. His invocation of a contemporary protest slogan, contrasting “right and wrong” rather than traditional ideological “right and left” divides, set a normative tone that underscored the gravity of current democratic challenges.

Baydar’s moderation was marked by a careful balance between diagnosis and inquiry. Rather than treating democratic backsliding as a singular phenomenon, he consistently emphasized its multi-layered and cumulative character. He drew attention to how erosion unfolds through coordinated pressure across institutional domains—judiciaries, bureaucracies, and electoral systems—thereby resisting simplistic explanations. This framing allowed subsequent speakers to situate their analyses within a broader architecture of systemic vulnerability.

Between interventions, Baydar sharpened the discussion by redirecting attention to points of institutional stress and potential resilience. His transition following Susan Stokes highlighted the need to move beyond identifying patterns of decline toward examining the conditions under which democratic actors can effectively respond. By foregrounding the role of civil servants, courts, and civil society networks, he articulated a key proposition: that coordinated attacks on democratic institutions require equally coordinated forms of defense. This emphasis on alignment—between institutional safeguards and civic mobilization—introduced a forward-looking dimension to the panel.

His subsequent remarks extended the discussion into the transnational implications of democratic resilience, suggesting that domestic institutional outcomes reverberate beyond national borders, particularly within the European context. This widened the analytical lens, linking internal democratic health to broader geopolitical consequences.

In his later intervention, Baydar adopted a more probing and critical tone when addressing the political trajectory of Donald Trump. By referencing recent statements on the limits of executive authority, he distilled a central tension between personalist leadership and established legal norms. Yet he avoided reductive critique, instead posing a more demanding question: how such an approach has achieved political traction and institutional impact. His framing of this dynamic as a “success story,” regardless of normative evaluation, compelled a deeper examination of the mechanisms—polarization, narrative saturation, and strategic defiance of constraints—that enable such transformations.

 

Professor Susan C. Stokes: Democratic Resilience Under Pressure — Institutions, Accountability, and the Return to Robust Democracy

Professor Susan C. Stokes.
Susan C. Stokes is Tiffany and Margaret Blake Distinguished Service Professor and Director of the Chicago Center on Democracy at the University of Chicago.

Professor Susan Stokes opened the second panel with a deliberately reframed analytical focus that shifted the discussion from the well-established causes of democratic erosion to a more strategically consequential question: how backsliding leaders leave power. This move marked a subtle but important departure from conventional debates. While acknowledging her own extensive scholarship linking income inequality to democratic decline, Professor Stokes chose instead to concentrate on the conditions under which democratic systems recover—or fail to recover—from sustained institutional weakening. In doing so, she oriented the discussion toward the practical dynamics of democratic resilience.

Her presentation was grounded in a systematic comparative framework. Drawing on a dataset of 27 cases of democratic erosion across 22 countries since 1999, she offered a structured and empirically informed assessment of leadership exit patterns. Contrary to prevailing narratives of democratic collapse, her findings introduced a cautiously optimistic perspective. A clear majority of backsliding leaders do not remain in power indefinitely. Of the cases examined, only a small number continue to govern, while most eventually leave office. Even more significantly, in the majority of these instances, their successors have demonstrated stronger commitments to democratic norms and the rule of law. These findings suggested that democratic erosion, while serious, does not typically culminate in permanent authoritarian consolidation.

Electoral Exit and the Limits of Autocratization

This empirical baseline framed her discussion of recent political developments, most notably the electoral defeat of Viktor Orban. Hungary had long been regarded as a critical test case for the durability of democratic institutions under prolonged illiberal governance. With extensive media control, electoral engineering, and more than a decade in power, Orban’s government appeared to many observers to have entrenched itself beyond the reach of meaningful electoral accountability. Yet his loss revealed that, even under adverse conditions, electoral mechanisms can retain their corrective function. Professor Stokes emphasized that this outcome does not imply a fully restored democracy, but it does demonstrate that the boundary between democratic erosion and authoritarian consolidation remains contingent rather than predetermined.

From this point, she developed a broader typology of exit pathways, identifying elections as the most consistent and effective mechanism for removing backsliding leaders. Across multiple regions and political systems, voter-driven electoral defeat has repeatedly served as the primary form of accountability. Cases such as the defeat of Jair Bolsonaro in 2022 and the earlier electoral loss of Donald Trump illustrated how even highly polarized environments can produce outcomes that interrupt autocratizing trajectories. While such leaders may contest results or attempt to mobilize resistance, the resilience of electoral institutions and judicial systems has, in several cases, prevented these efforts from overturning democratic outcomes.

Constraining Power: Term Limits, Parties, and Protest

Professor Stokes also highlighted the role of term limits as a secondary but significant constraint. In some contexts, leaders have adhered to constitutional restrictions and stepped down accordingly, reinforcing democratic norms of rotation in power. However, she noted that attempts to weaken or abolish term limits are a recurring feature of autocratizing strategies. Leaders such as Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales pursued such reforms to extend their tenure. Yet these efforts have not always succeeded unchallenged. Public resistance, including referendums rejecting constitutional changes, indicates that citizens often retain a strong normative commitment to limits on executive power, even in contexts of broader democratic strain.

Beyond formal electoral mechanisms, Professor Stokes examined the role of intra-party dynamics. Although less common, there are instances where ruling parties themselves have facilitated leadership change. These cases typically arise when incumbents become politically costly liabilities, particularly in anticipation of future elections. Party elites, seeking to preserve broader electoral viability, may compel leaders to resign or step aside. This dynamic underscores the importance of internal political incentives and the ways in which even dominant parties can act as constraints under certain conditions.

The role of mass protest was treated with analytical nuance. Professor Stokes acknowledged that backsliding leaders almost invariably encounter resistance from civil society, often in the form of large-scale demonstrations. Examples from multiple countries illustrate how protests challenge narratives of inevitability and signal widespread dissatisfaction. However, she emphasized that such mobilization rarely leads directly to leadership removal. The notable exception of Ukraine’s Euromaidan protests, which forced the departure of Viktor Yanukovych, remains atypical. More often, protests function indirectly, shaping political conditions rather than producing immediate institutional outcomes.

A particularly striking aspect of her analysis concerned the limited effectiveness of impeachment. Despite its prominence in constitutional design, impeachment has not successfully removed a backsliding leader in the contemporary wave of democratic erosion. This absence suggests a gap between formal institutional tools and their practical application in highly polarized political environments. In contrast, electoral mechanisms—though imperfect—have proven more consistently consequential.

Reversing Backsliding: Pathways to Democratic Renewal

Throughout her presentation, Professor Stokes maintained a careful balance between optimism and caution. While the data indicate that full authoritarian consolidation is relatively rare, it remains a real possibility. Cases such as Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela and developments in Nicaragua demonstrate that democratic breakdown can occur when institutional safeguards are sufficiently weakened. Moreover, she highlighted the ambiguity surrounding countries such as Turkey, where regime classification remains contingent on future political developments. The decisive factor, in her view, lies in how incumbents respond to electoral defeat—whether they accept loss and relinquish power or refuse to do so.

The broader significance of Professor Stokes’s intervention lies in its strategic implications. By focusing on exit rather than entry, she provided a framework for understanding how democratic systems can recover from periods of erosion. This perspective shifts attention toward the interplay of institutions, political actors, and societal forces that shape outcomes over time. It suggests that while democratic decline is often gradual and cumulative, reversal is possible through multiple, interacting pathways.

In concluding, Professor Stokes underscored that democratic erosion should not be understood as a linear or irreversible process. The trajectory from weakened democracy to authoritarian rule is neither uniform nor inevitable. Instead, it is shaped by contingent choices, institutional resilience, and the capacity of political and social actors to mobilize in defense of democratic norms. By mapping the varied routes through which backsliding leaders exit power, her analysis offered both a sobering recognition of democratic vulnerability and a measured basis for cautious optimism about its potential renewal.

 

Dr. Robert Benson: To Resist a Coordinated Attack, We Need a Coordinated Defense

Dr. Robert Benson.
Dr. Robert Benson is Associate Director for National Security & International Policy, Center for American Progress (CAP).

Dr. Robert Benson delivered a sharply focused and strategically oriented intervention as the second speaker of the panel, advancing a central claim that reframed contemporary democratic backsliding as an increasingly transnational phenomenon. Moving beyond country-specific analyses, he argued that the present moment is defined not by parallel national crises, but by the emergence of a coordinated, cross-border ecosystem of illiberal actors. In this context, the defense of liberal democracy, he contended, can no longer remain confined within national boundaries.

At the outset, Dr. Benson situated his remarks within a practitioner’s perspective, drawing on recent engagements with pro-democracy networks in Europe. This grounding lent immediacy to his broader analytical argument: that policymakers have been slow to recognize the extent to which far-right movements have developed transnational linkages. Where earlier frameworks treated democratic erosion as a series of discrete national trajectories—Hungary, Poland, France, or Germany—he suggested that such compartmentalization is now analytically inadequate. What has emerged instead is a structured system of coordination, characterized by the circulation of narratives, strategies, and increasingly, institutional resources.

Transnational Circulation and the Institutionalization of the Far Right

Central to Dr. Benson’s intervention was the concept of “circulation” as distinct from mere imitation. The contemporary far right, he argued, does not simply replicate successful tactics across contexts; it actively exchanges and amplifies them through networks that span political parties, digital platforms, and ideological communities. This circulation encompasses rhetorical frames—such as anti-migration panic, anti-elite resentment, and civilizational decline—as well as operational strategies, including the use of legal mechanisms, media ecosystems, and political patronage. In this sense, democratic backsliding is sustained not only by domestic conditions but by transnational reinforcement.

A key escalation in this dynamic, according to Dr. Benson, lies in the growing involvement of state actors, particularly within the United States. He presented evidence suggesting that elements of the American state apparatus have begun to function as amplifiers of European far-right movements. This development, he argued, marks a significant shift from earlier patterns of ideological diffusion, introducing a new layer of institutional backing. The implications are substantial: what was once a network of loosely connected actors now appears increasingly supported by formal diplomatic and financial channels.

To illustrate this shift, Dr. Benson pointed to recent reporting on activities within the US State Department, highlighting the roles of figures such as Samuel Sampson and Sarah Rogers. While careful not to reduce the analysis to individual actions, he treated these cases as indicative of a broader pattern. Meetings with European far-right actors, interventions in debates on migration and regulation, and efforts to reframe human rights discourse were presented as components of a larger strategy. The significance, in his account, lies not in isolated provocations, but in the apparent institutionalization of these efforts within official channels.

This process, Dr. Benson argued, reflects a deeper phenomenon of institutional repurposing. Historically, bodies such as the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor have served as instruments of liberal internationalism, promoting civil rights, electoral integrity, and press freedom. However, he suggested that these institutions are now being reoriented toward alternative normative frameworks, including a shift from human rights language to concepts framed as “natural rights.” This redefinition, he emphasized, is not merely semantic but reflects an attempt to reshape the ideological foundations of democratic governance.

Asymmetry and Coordination in Transnational Illiberal Networks

Equally consequential is the financial dimension of this transformation. Dr. Benson highlighted what he described as a reallocation of resources away from traditional democracy-support programs toward initiatives aligned with far-right priorities. Programs that once funded digital tools for activists and journalists in authoritarian contexts have reportedly been scaled back or dismantled. In their place, resources are being directed toward campaigns challenging regulatory frameworks in democratic societies, particularly in areas such as content moderation and platform governance. This shift, he argued, represents a form of strategic inversion: mechanisms originally designed to protect democratic pluralism are now deployed to contest it.

From this analysis, Dr. Benson derived four conceptual tools for understanding the current moment. First, transnational diffusion captures the movement of ideas and practices across borders through sustained interaction. Second, institutional repurposing describes the transformation of established democratic bodies into vehicles for illiberal agendas. Third, asymmetrical coordination highlights the imbalance between highly organized far-right networks and comparatively fragmented democratic responses. Finally, strategic inversion denotes the reorientation of democratic instruments against their original purposes.

These concepts collectively supported his broader argument regarding strategic asymmetry. While illiberal actors have invested in building durable, cross-border infrastructures—encompassing funding networks, media platforms, and political alliances—democratic actors, he suggested, continue to operate in a reactive and largely uncoordinated manner. Initiatives such as international conferences and ad hoc coalitions, while valuable, remain insufficient to match the scale and coherence of the challenge.

In the latter part of his intervention, Dr. Benson turned to the implications of this asymmetry. He argued that democratic resilience must be reconceptualized as a matter of transatlantic security. The weakening of democratic institutions within individual states has cascading effects on broader alliances, including NATO cohesion and collective responses to geopolitical challenges. In this sense, democratic erosion is not only a domestic concern but a factor shaping international stability.

Transnational Challenges, Coordinated Responses

He further emphasized the need to move beyond purely normative defenses of democracy. While appeals to values remain important, they must be complemented by the development of concrete institutional capacities. This includes building sustainable funding mechanisms, strengthening independent media ecosystems, and fostering long-term networks among pro-democracy actors. Without such infrastructure, democratic responses risk remaining episodic and insufficiently grounded.

A final theme of his remarks was the importance of temporal perspective. Dr. Benson cautioned against viewing democratic backsliding as a series of discrete crises that can be resolved through singular events, such as elections or judicial decisions. Instead, he described it as a long-term process involving gradual institutional capture, normalization of exclusionary rhetoric, and reinforcement across national boundaries. Effective resistance, therefore, requires a similarly sustained and strategic approach.

In sum, Dr. Benson’s intervention offered a compelling reframing of democratic backsliding as a transnational and increasingly institutionalized phenomenon. By highlighting the interplay between ideological circulation, state involvement, and structural asymmetry, he underscored the need for a more coordinated and durable response. His analysis suggested that the future of democratic resilience will depend not only on national political dynamics but on the capacity of democratic actors to recognize and respond to the cross-border nature of the challenge.

 

Professor Barry Sullivan: The Law and Politics of Fear — Executive Power in 2026

Professor Barry Sullivan is the Raymond and Mary Simon Chair in Constitutional Law and the George Anastaplo Professor of Constitutional Law and History at Loyola University.

As the third speaker of the panel, Professor Barry Sullivan offered a penetrating and historically grounded analysis of the early trajectory and broader constitutional implications of Donald Trump’s second administration. Professor Sullivan situated his intervention within the conceptual vocabulary of executive power, institutional erosion, and the fragility of constitutional constraints, advancing a compelling argument about the unprecedented acceleration of presidential authority in contemporary American governance.

Professor Sullivan began by invoking the notion of “flooding the zone,” a strategic concept popularized during Trump’s first presidency by Steve Bannon and later revisited by journalist Luke Broadwater in early 2025. According to Professor Sullivan, the first week of Trump’s second administration provides a paradigmatic illustration of this strategy in action—yet in an intensified and more systematized form. Broadwater’s observation that the “flood is bigger, wider, and more brutally efficient” served as an entry point for Professor Sullivan to examine how the administration deployed a rapid succession of executive actions to overwhelm institutional opposition, fragment public scrutiny, and reshape the political agenda.

A key analytical insight offered by Professor Sullivan concerns the deliberate blurring of constitutional categories. He underscored the significance of Broadwater’s use of the term “enacted” to describe executive actions—a term traditionally reserved for legislative processes. In Professor Sullivan’s interpretation, this linguistic shift is not incidental but emblematic of a broader strategy to obscure the distinction between executive and legislative authority. By staging highly publicized signing ceremonies for executive orders—most notably in a large public arena rather than the conventional Oval Office setting—Trump symbolically elevated executive directives to the status of legislative acts, thereby reinforcing an image of unilateral presidential governance.

Executive Expansion and the Transformation of Governance

Expanding on this theme, Professor Sullivan provided a detailed account of the administration’s early actions, emphasizing both their scope and their institutional implications. Within the first days of the presidency, Trump issued a torrent of executive orders, dismissed politically independent inspectors general, pardoned individuals involved in the January 6 Capitol attack, and initiated investigations into perceived political adversaries. Additional measures included revoking security clearances, freezing federal hiring, restricting immigration, dismantling diversity initiatives, and rescinding large-scale federal funding commitments. For Professor Sullivan, the cumulative effect of these actions lies not merely in their individual substance but in their collective capacity to transform the operational logic of governance.

Over the course of the first year, Professor Sullivan observed, this pattern of executive activism continued to expand, incorporating both symbolic and substantive dimensions. He highlighted instances of overtly nativist and racially charged rhetoric, as well as unprecedented interventions in civil society, including attacks on universities, law firms, and media institutions. Structural changes to the federal bureaucracy—such as the reclassification of tens of thousands of civil service positions into politically controlled roles—further exemplify what Professor Sullivan described as a systematic effort to consolidate executive control over the administrative state.

In interpreting these developments, Professor Sullivan drew a provocative historical parallel to Richard Nixon’s conception of presidential authority. Nixon’s claim that the president functions as a quasi-monarchical figure—accountable only through impeachment—serves, in Professor Sullivan’s analysis, as a conceptual precursor to Trump’s governing philosophy. However, where Nixon ultimately failed to institutionalize this vision, Professor Sullivan argued that Trump appears, at least provisionally, to have succeeded in operationalizing it.

Unitary Executive Ascendant: Law, Courts, and Concentrated Authority

Turning to the question of causation, Professor Sullivan identified several interrelated factors that help explain the administration’s capacity to expand presidential power so rapidly. While acknowledging contingent elements—such as prior planning, partisan control of Congress, and the organizational weakness of the opposition—he emphasized a deeper, structural explanation grounded in three mutually reinforcing dynamics.

First, Professor Sullivan pointed to the failure of the separation of powers as a functional constraint. Contrary to the expectations of the constitutional framers, institutional checks have proven insufficient to counterbalance executive overreach. Second, he highlighted what he described as a relative indifference to the rule of law among the president and his supporters. This normative shift, in Professor Sullivan’s view, facilitates the reconfiguration of both governmental and societal institutions in line with ideological projects such as “Project 2025,” a comprehensive blueprint for administrative transformation.

The third factor, Professor Sullivan argued, lies in the evolving jurisprudence of the Supreme Court under Chief Justice John Roberts, which has significantly expanded presidential power through the consolidation of the unitary executive theory. This doctrine posits that all officials within the executive branch must remain directly accountable to the president and subject to removal at his discretion, thereby denying the legitimacy of genuinely independent agencies. While this perspective gained prominence during the Reagan administration, Professor Sullivan traced its intellectual and political origins to post-Watergate discontent among figures associated with the Nixon and Ford administrations, who viewed institutional reforms as unjust constraints on executive authority. Key proponents of this view included Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and notably Justice Antonin Scalia, whose influential dissent articulated a maximalist conception of executive power as fully vested in the presidency. Chief Justice Roberts himself, as a young White House lawyer, had advanced similar arguments advocating the dismantling of independent agencies. In Professor Sullivan’s assessment, the jurisprudence of the Roberts Court represents the institutional culmination of these long-standing ideas. He emphasized that this development manifests in two critical dimensions: the judicial endorsement of a strong unitary executive and the expansion of presidential immunity, effectively shielding the office from civil and criminal accountability.

In synthesizing these elements, Professor Sullivan presented a sobering assessment of the contemporary American constitutional order. The convergence of institutional fragility, ideological transformation, and judicial reinforcement has enabled a form of executive governance that challenges long-standing assumptions about the resilience of liberal democratic systems.  

In conclusion, Professor Sullivan’s presentation offered a rigorous and multidimensional account of the Trump administration’s second term, illuminating the mechanisms through which executive power can be rapidly expanded within a formally democratic framework. By situating current developments within both historical and theoretical contexts, Professor Sullivan provided a critical lens through which to assess the evolving balance between authority and constraint in modern constitutional democracies.

 

Professor Stephen E. Hanson: Democracy, the Rule of Law, and Regime Change — An Evolutionary Perspective

Professor Stephen E. Hanson, the Lettie Pate Evans Professor in the Department of Government at William & Mary University.

As the final speaker of the panel, Professor Stephen Hanson delivered a wide-ranging and theoretically ambitious presentation that sought to reframe prevailing explanations of democratic backsliding. While acknowledging the analytical value of populism as a concept, Professor Hanson advanced a more nuanced argument: that the contemporary crisis of democracy is better understood not primarily through the lens of populism, but through the resurgence and diffusion of patrimonial forms of state-building that challenge the rational-legal foundations of modern democratic governance.

Professor Hanson began by situating current political developments within a broader global context characterized by sustained democratic decline. Drawing on widely cited datasets such as Freedom House, Polity and V-Dem, he noted that the world has experienced approximately two decades of continuous erosion in democratic quality. This trend, he emphasized, unfolds alongside intensifying geopolitical instability, including interstate conflicts and military interventions—from Russia’s war in Ukraine to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Africa. For Professor Hanson, these developments are not merely coincidental but constitute the structural backdrop against which democratic institutions are being weakened.

Conceptual Precision in Democratic Backsliding

Building on arguments developed in his co-authored book The Assault on the State (2024), Professor Hanson turned to the conceptual foundations of democratic theory. He questioned whether “authoritarian populism,” a term widely used to describe contemporary political dynamics, adequately captures the causal mechanisms driving democratic erosion. While recognizing that elected leaders increasingly undermine democratic norms from within—echoing arguments familiar from the literature on democratic backsliding—Professor Hanson warned against over-reliance on the concept of populism due to its analytical ambiguities.

One major concern, he argued, is what Giovanni Sartori termed “conceptual stretching.” The term populism has been applied so broadly that it risks losing explanatory precision. As Professor Hanson observed, political actors as ideologically diverse as Vladimir Putin and Alexei Navalny, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, or Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva have all been labeled populists in various scholarly accounts. Such indiscriminate usage obscures critical distinctions between episodic, charismatic mobilizations and sustained projects of institutional power consolidation. For Professor Hanson, this distinction is crucial: not all populist movements produce durable authoritarian transformations.

A second limitation identified by Professor Hanson concerns the rhetorical paradox embedded in anti-populist discourse. The call to “defend democracy” by mobilizing “the people” against populists can inadvertently reproduce the very populist logic it seeks to oppose. This paradox underscores the need for a more precise analytical framework capable of distinguishing between democratic contestation and authoritarian transformation.

To develop such a framework, Professor Hanson traced the intellectual origins of contemporary regime classification systems. He highlighted that the now-dominant dichotomy between democracy and authoritarianism is a relatively recent development, gaining prominence only after World War II. Earlier political thought, he noted, focused more on distinctions between monarchy and republic, with democracy itself often viewed with ambivalence. The postwar ascendancy of liberal democracy, reinforced by modernization theory and the perceived triumph of the West following the Cold War, led to the institutionalization of democracy as the normative endpoint of political development.

Within this intellectual tradition, Professor Hanson emphasized the enduring influence of Robert Dahl’s concept of polyarchy, which sought to operationalize democracy through measurable institutional criteria such as political participation and contestation. While this approach underpins contemporary indices like Freedom House and V-Dem, Professor Hanson argued that it risks neglecting deeper philosophical questions about the meaning of democratic rule. Specifically, the focus on institutional form may overlook whether political systems genuinely reflect “rule by the people” in a substantive sense.

Patrimonial Power and the Erosion of Liberal Democracy

This critique led Professor Hanson to reintroduce the concept of the state as a central analytical category. He argued that much of the democratization literature has treated the state as a secondary concern, emphasizing instead electoral processes and civil liberties. Yet, as Professor Hanson underscored, democracy presupposes a functioning state capable of enforcing rules and maintaining order. Without such a state, the notion of popular rule becomes hollow.

Drawing on Max Weber’s typology of legitimate authority, Professor Hanson identified three distinct bases of political legitimacy: rational-legal, traditional, and charismatic. Modern liberal democracies, he noted, are grounded in rational-legal authority, where governance is structured by impersonal rules and institutional procedures. However, contemporary challenges to democracy often involve a shift toward traditional and charismatic forms of legitimacy. In such contexts, political leaders claim to embody the authentic will of a historically rooted community or present themselves as uniquely capable figures whose authority transcends institutional constraints.

It is within this theoretical framework that Professor Hanson introduced his central concept: patrimonialism. Unlike populism, which primarily describes a style of political mobilization, patrimonialism refers to a mode of state organization in which authority is personalized and governance is conducted through networks of loyalty, kinship, and patronage. In patrimonial systems, the boundary between public and private authority collapses, and the state is effectively transformed into an extension of the ruler’s household.

Beyond Populism: The Rise of Personalized State Power

According to Professor Hanson, the contemporary global trend is not merely toward populist rhetoric but toward the reconstruction of states along patrimonial lines. This process involves systematic efforts to undermine the rational-legal bureaucracy, replace meritocratic criteria with personal loyalty, and delegitimize independent institutions by labeling them as components of a “deep state.” Leaders who pursue such strategies often invoke traditional values—such as family, religion, and national identity—to justify their actions, framing them as expressions of the true will of the people.

Professor Hanson traced the diffusion of this patrimonial model to Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which he identified as a central node in the global spread of alternative governance paradigms. From this core, patrimonial practices have influenced political developments in various regions, including Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and even established democracies. Figures such as Viktor Orbán, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Donald Trump, in Professor Hanson’s analysis, exemplify different manifestations of this broader trend, despite their varying ideological profiles.

Importantly, Professor Hanson distinguished between cases where populist mobilization remains episodic and those where it culminates in structural transformation. Movements such as Syriza in Greece or Podemos in Spain, he suggested, may channel popular discontent without fundamentally altering state institutions. By contrast, regimes that successfully embed patrimonial practices within the state apparatus pose a far more significant challenge to democratic governance, as they create enduring institutional barriers to reform.

The implications of this analysis are both theoretical and practical. For Professor Hanson, defending democracy requires more than countering populist narratives; it necessitates the preservation and reconstruction of rational-legal state institutions. This includes protecting the autonomy and professionalism of bureaucracies, reaffirming the value of expertise, and resisting efforts to politicize public administration. At the same time, he acknowledged the rhetorical difficulty of defending state institutions in societies where distrust of elites and bureaucracies is widespread.

Revitalizing Democratic Governance

Professor Hanson also emphasized the importance of engaging younger generations, many of whom have become disillusioned with formal politics. Revitalizing democratic governance, he argued, depends on cultivating a renewed commitment to public service and demonstrating that state institutions can serve as instruments of collective empowerment rather than domination.

In his concluding remarks, Professor Hanson called for a broader reorientation of political science. He advocated moving beyond static dichotomies between democracy and authoritarianism toward a more dynamic, historically grounded understanding of regime change. By examining how different forms of political organization diffuse across time and space, scholars can better anticipate emerging threats and identify pathways for institutional renewal.

Ultimately, Professor Hanson suggested that the current crisis of democracy, while profound, also opens the possibility for innovation. Rather than assuming a linear trajectory toward liberal democracy or its inevitable decline, he encouraged scholars and practitioners alike to imagine alternative forms of democratic governance that reconcile institutional stability with meaningful popular participation.

 

Discussions

In In the discussion segment, Professor Susan Stokes offered a precise reflection on the preceding presentations, expressing strong appreciation while gently pushing back on elements of Professor Barry Sullivan’s account. She noted that, until recently, she would have largely agreed with such an interpretation, but suggested that developments over the past months invite a more qualified assessment of the trajectory of autocratization in the United States.

At the center of Professor Stokes’ intervention was a clarifying question: what would genuine success look like for a leader or movement seeking to autocratize a democratic system? In her view, such success would involve a leader who sustains broad and durable popular support, commands loyalty across the political class, and faces no meaningful defections within their own party. Against this benchmark, she argued, the current situation does not fully meet the criteria of consolidated success.

Professor Stokes pointed to indicators that complicate the narrative of unchecked executive dominance. She emphasized that the president’s polling numbers remain weak and that, while party cohesion largely persists, there have been sufficient defections to obstruct key initiatives. As an example, she referred to ongoing hearings concerning a nominee for Federal Reserve chair, where opposition from within the president’s own party—linked to concerns about the politicization of the Justice Department—could jeopardize the appointment. Such moments, she suggested, reveal the continued presence of institutional and intra-party constraints.

While acknowledging that some of these difficulties may stem from individual characteristics—such as poor strategic judgment, emotional impulsiveness, or a preoccupation with personal grievances—Professor Stokes emphasized that deeper structural dynamics are also at play. Leaders who seek to undermine legal and constitutional norms, she argued, often surround themselves with advisors whose primary asset is loyalty rather than professional credibility. This, in turn, limits the quality of counsel and increases the likelihood of strategic errors. Professor Stokes stressed that, although significant changes have occurred and the challenges of re-democratization will be substantial, the current trajectory does not yet represent a fully successful autocratizing project.

Incompetence, Loyalty, and the Dynamics of Executive Power

In response, Professor Barry Sullivan largely agreed with the preceding remarks while raising questions about the president’s underlying motivations. He expressed uncertainty as to whether the president is genuinely concerned with long-term political outcomes, such as the maintenance of an authoritarian-style regime following his own term of office, suggesting instead a primary focus on present personal power and status. This, he noted, raises doubts about the depth of commitment to specific policy agendas, such as immigration, compared to more ideologically driven actors within the administration.

Professor Sullivan acknowledged some recent erosion of popular support and small pockets of Republican congressional resistance. Reflecting on the first term, however, Professor Sullivan observed that the president showed little interest in expanding his electoral base, often foregoing opportunities to broaden support. In his view, the key distinction in the second term lies not in strategic expansion but in organizational learning. The intervening years appear to have been used to reassess perceived constraints of the first administration. Most notably, Professor Sullivan emphasized a deliberate shift in personnel strategy: the conscious exclusion of advisors inclined to uphold institutional guardrails, replaced by individuals less likely to restrain executive action.

The discussions evolved into a focused exchange on the resilience of authoritarian tendencies and the challenges of democratic recovery, initiated by Dr. Bulent Kenes. Drawing on contemporary developments in countries such as Poland, Hungary, the United States, and Brazil, Dr. Kenes raised a critical concern: while democratic systems appear vulnerable and often slow to respond, autocratic or authoritarian formations seem to exhibit a striking degree of resilience. He pointed to the difficulties faced by democratic actors—such as Donald Tusk in Poland and democratic forces in Hungary—in attempting to reverse entrenched institutional transformations implemented by prior governments. Framing this as a structural asymmetry, Dr. Kenes invited Professor Stephen Hanson to reflect on how such resilience might be effectively countered.

Dr. Kent Jones, Professor Emeritus of International Economics at Babson College and author of Populism and Trade: The Challenge to the Global Trading System.

Building on this theme, Professor Kent Jones introduced a complementary line of inquiry centered on the role of incompetence within populist and authoritarian governance. Referring to Max Weber’s concept of patrimonialism, he suggested that the reliance on loyal but often unqualified appointees may lead to policy failures that undermine regime performance. At the same time, he described a “race” between the negative political consequences of such incompetence—potentially alienating voters—and efforts by leaders to entrench their power by weakening electoral accountability. If electoral mechanisms remain intact, incompetence may ultimately facilitate democratic correction; if not, it risks being politically insulated.

From Ephemeral Populism to Patrimonial Durability

In response, Professor Stephen Hanson acknowledged both questions as analytically significant and interrelated. Addressing the issue of democratic vulnerability, he argued that part of the problem lies in the absence of sustained strategic coordination among democratic actors. The assumption that historical trajectories naturally favor democracy, he suggested, has contributed to a degree of complacency, obscuring what is in fact a systemic and global shift requiring deliberate and organized responses. He further emphasized that segments of the political left have been reluctant to engage positively with the concept of the state, often associating it with overreach or surveillance. This hesitation, Professor Hanson argued, weakens the capacity to articulate a robust democratic alternative capable of governing effectively.

Turning to the question of incompetence, Professor Hanson distinguished between two forms. In cases of what he termed “ephemeral populism,” incompetence can quickly erode support, as seen in movements that fail to deliver basic governance outcomes. However, in more entrenched “patrimonial” systems, incompetence is embedded within networks of loyalty, where allegiance to the leader supersedes expertise. Such systems, he noted, are more durable precisely because they rest on historically grounded principles of legitimation, making them more resistant to collapse.

Nevertheless, Professor Hanson underscored that even within patrimonial contexts, systemic policy failures can generate political backlash. Poorly managed policies—particularly those affecting everyday economic life—can serve as focal points for mobilizing broader electoral opposition. If effectively articulated, these failures may help shift voter preferences, suggesting that incompetence, while not automatically destabilizing, remains a potential avenue through which democratic forces can regain ground.

 

Conclusion

Panel 2 has underscored that liberal democracy’s current crisis is not merely electoral, but institutional, legal, administrative, and transnational. Across the presentations and discussion, a central insight emerged: democratic backsliding advances through cumulative pressure on the rule-bound state, while democratic recovery depends on the capacity to rebuild institutions that can withstand personalist power, ideological capture, and coordinated illiberal mobilization.

Professor Susan Stokes’s comparative analysis introduced an important note of guarded optimism by showing that many backsliding leaders do eventually leave office, often through elections and election-related pressures. Yet her remarks also made clear that exit from power does not automatically restore democracy; undoing institutional damage remains a long and difficult process. Dr. Robert Benson’s intervention widened this problem by showing that illiberal actors increasingly operate through cross-border networks, making democratic defense a matter of transnational coordination rather than isolated national response. Professor Barry Sullivan’s analysis of executive power highlighted how quickly constitutional limits can be weakened when legal restraint, institutional guardrails, and political accountability erode simultaneously. Professor Stephen Hanson then deepened the theoretical frame by arguing that the challenge lies not only in populism, but in patrimonial assaults on rational-legal state institutions.

The discussion further clarified the scale of the task ahead. Democratic actors must confront not only charismatic leaders and polarizing rhetoric, but also durable networks of loyalty, weakened bureaucracies, politicized law, and public distrust of expertise. At the same time, the panel suggested that authoritarian projects are not invulnerable. Their dependence on loyalty over competence can produce policy failures, social backlash, and renewed openings for democratic mobilization.

In sum, the panel showed that democratic defense requires more than resisting individual leaders. It demands coordinated institutional renewal, protection of professional public service, civic vigilance, and a persuasive democratic language capable of reconnecting citizens to the rule-bound state. In this sense, the defense of liberal democracy is both a political struggle and a project of institutional reconstruction.

CPAC

ECPS Symposium 2026 / Panel 1: From Grievance to Radicalization — Rhetoric, Ideology, and the International Politics of Populism

Please cite as:
ECPS Staff. (2026). “ECPS Symposium 2026 / Panel 1: From Grievance to Radicalization — Rhetoric, Ideology, and the International Politics of Populism.” European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). April 28, 2026. https://doi.org/10.55271/rp00149

 

This panel offered a concise yet conceptually rich account of how contemporary populism transforms diffuse grievances into structured political radicalization. Bridging discourse analysis, religious studies, international political economy, and historical sociology, the discussion illuminated the multi-layered processes through which democratic erosion unfolds. Rather than locating the problem solely within institutional decline, the panel foregrounded the interplay of rhetoric, identity, and emotional mobilization—particularly the roles of humiliation, status anxiety, and perceived loss of recognition. Contributions by Professors Ruth Wodak, Julie Ingersoll, Stephan Klingebiel, and Benjamin Carter Hett collectively demonstrated that populist dynamics are sustained by both narrative construction and structural change. The session thus advanced a nuanced analytical framework for understanding how anti-pluralist politics emerge, normalize, and gain legitimacy across diverse contexts.

Reported by ECPS Staff

Panel 1 of the ECPS Fifth Annual International Symposium, titled “From Grievance to Radicalization: Rhetoric, Ideology, and the International Politics of Populism,” offered a rich and interdisciplinary examination of how discontent is translated into exclusionary politics, institutional erosion, and authoritarian opportunity. Bringing together perspectives from discourse studies, religious studies, development policy, and modern history, the panel explored the pathways through which grievance is narrated, organized, and mobilized across national and transnational contexts. Although the presentations addressed distinct empirical terrains—from far-right rhetoric in Europe and Christian nationalism in the United States to multilateral institutions and the lessons of Weimar Germany—they converged around a shared concern: democratic decline rarely emerges suddenly, but is prepared through the cumulative interaction of ideas, identities, institutions, and political strategies.

Moderated by Professor Ibrahim Ozturk, the session unfolded as a tightly connected conversation on the mechanisms through which populist and far-right forces gain traction in moments of social unease and political dislocation. A central strength of the panel lay in its refusal to treat populism as a singular or self-explanatory phenomenon. Instead, the speakers unpacked the rhetorical, ideological, emotional, and institutional infrastructures that enable anti-pluralist politics to flourish. 

Professor Ruth Wodak showed how democratic norms are eroded through discourse, provocation, and the normalization of exclusionary language. Professor Julie Ingersoll demonstrated how theocratic and anti-democratic religious movements, though internally diverse, have strategically converged to influence contemporary American politics. Professor Stephan Klingebiel widened the frame to the international level, showing how populist governance affects not only domestic politics but also the normative foundations of multilateral cooperation. Professor Benjamin Carter Hett, drawing on the history of late Weimar Germany, highlighted humiliation and status anxiety as powerful emotional drivers of anti-system politics, offering a historically grounded lens for understanding present-day grievance mobilization.

Taken together, the panel made clear that contemporary democratic crises cannot be understood through institutional analysis alone. What emerged instead was a layered account in which fear, humiliation, identity, ideology, and strategic communication are inseparable from formal political change. The subsequent discussion deepened these insights further, linking personal experience, comparative reflection, and normative concerns in ways that reinforced the panel’s interdisciplinary value.

In this sense, Panel 1 did more than diagnose the current moment. It established an intellectual framework for thinking about how democratic erosion is prepared, legitimized, and accelerated across multiple arenas. By tracing the movement from grievance to radicalization, the session illuminated not only the fragility of democratic norms, but also the urgency of confronting the political, cultural, and institutional conditions that allow authoritarian and exclusionary projects to take root.

 

Professor Ruth Wodak: ‘Driving On the Right’: Analyzing Far-Right Rhetoric.

Professor Ruth Wodak is Emerita Distinguished Professor of Discourse Studies at Lancaster University, affiliated with the University of Vienna, and a member of the ECPS Advisory Board.

Professor Ruth Wodak’s presentation offered a theoretically grounded and empirically attentive exploration of how democratic erosion unfolds through discourse, rhetoric, and the gradual normalization of exclusionary politics. As the first speaker of the panel, Professor Wodak set a reflective and analytically rigorous tone by anchoring her remarks in a historical insight from John Dewey. Quoting his 1931 warning that democracy becomes a farce when citizens are not equipped to think critically and recognize propaganda, she established a conceptual bridge between past and present. While acknowledging that historical analogies must be handled with caution, she argued that certain patterns—particularly the weakening of critical judgment and the manipulation of public discourse—remain deeply relevant for understanding contemporary political developments.

Building on this premise, Professor Wodak turned to the identification of observable criteria that signal when democracies are under threat. Drawing in part on recent analytical frameworks and public debates, she outlined a series of interrelated developments that characterize processes of autocratization. These included attacks on freedom of expression, the systematic defamation or marginalization of political opponents, pressures on judicial independence, and the potential use of emergency powers to bypass institutional constraints. Additional indicators encompassed the gradual discrimination of minorities, the erosion of press freedom, the undermining of academic and scientific autonomy, the emergence of personality cults, the spread of corruption and kleptocratic practices, and the strategic redesign of legal and electoral frameworks to consolidate power.

The Politics of Shameless Normalization

A central emphasis of her argument was that these developments rarely appear in their most extreme form at the outset. Rather, they emerge incrementally, as part of a cumulative and often normalized process. Each step, while perhaps appearing limited or defensible in isolation, contributes to a broader trajectory in which democratic norms are steadily weakened. This step-by-step dynamic, she suggested, is crucial for understanding why democratic backsliding can advance without triggering immediate resistance.

The core of Professor Wodak’s presentation focused on the linguistic and rhetorical mechanisms that facilitate this gradual transformation. At the center of her analysis was the concept of “shameless normalization,” which she has developed extensively in her work. This refers to a process through which the boundaries of what is publicly acceptable are progressively expanded. Statements, ideas, and attitudes that were previously considered taboo or beyond the limits of legitimate discourse are reintroduced, repeated, and ultimately rendered acceptable. Political actors present themselves as articulating what “ordinary people” supposedly think but have been unable or unwilling to express, thereby framing transgressive speech as a form of authenticity.

Professor Wodak highlighted that this process is often driven by continuous provocation. By deliberately testing and crossing normative boundaries, political actors can shift the parameters of public debate. Over time, what initially appears shocking or unacceptable becomes familiar and normalized. This strategy, she argued, is particularly effective when it is reinforced by broader political dynamics, including the willingness of mainstream actors to adopt or adapt elements of far-right discourse.

Importantly, she emphasized that normalization does not always take an overtly aggressive or confrontational form. Alongside provocation, one also encounters what she termed “coarse civility,” a mode of communication in which exclusionary or discriminatory ideas are presented in a seemingly moderate, polite, or technocratic language. This rhetorical softening allows such ideas to circulate more widely and gain legitimacy, especially when they are taken up by mainstream conservative parties. In this way, the normalization of far-right discourse often proceeds not only through radicalization at the margins, but through incorporation at the center.

To illustrate these dynamics, Professor Wodak drew on examples from Austrian politics. She traced the trajectory of a slogan originally used by a far-right politician in the 1980s, which emphasized speaking “the language of the people.” Over time, this slogan was adopted by a mainstream conservative leader and subsequently reappropriated by the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ). This example demonstrated how political language travels across ideological boundaries, shedding its original stigma and becoming part of a broader repertoire of acceptable discourse. Such processes, she argued, reveal how the mainstreaming of far-right ideas occurs through repetition, adaptation, and gradual legitimation.

Euphemism and Power: Sanitizing Coercion in Democratic Politics

In the final part of her presentation, Professor Wodak turned to the role of euphemism in shaping public perceptions of policy. Drawing on contemporary European debates on migration and asylum, she showed how practices such as detention are reframed through sanitized terminology, including phrases like “waiting zones” or “closed control access centers.” These linguistic choices, she argued, obscure the coercive nature of such measures and render them more palatable to the public. In this sense, language functions not merely as a descriptive tool, but as a mechanism that shapes what can be politically imagined and justified.

Professor Wodak concluded by synthesizing the broader implications of her analysis. Shameless normalization, she argued, performs multiple functions: it constructs a sense of authenticity, rejects the norms of rational deliberation, fosters identification between political leaders and “the people,” and diverts attention through provocation and scandalization. Most significantly, it facilitates the implementation of exclusionary and anti-democratic policies by embedding them within mainstream political discourse.

Her presentation thus underscored that democratic erosion is not only an institutional or legal process, but also a profoundly discursive one. The weakening of democracy occurs through shifts in language, norms, and public sensibilities, often long before formal institutional breakdown becomes visible. By foregrounding the role of rhetoric and normalization, Professor Wodak provided a compelling framework for understanding how contemporary democracies are challenged from within, and why resisting such processes requires not only institutional safeguards but also sustained critical engagement with political language and discourse.

 

Professor Julie Ingersoll: The Theocratic Blueprint of Christian Nationalism, Reconstructionism, the New Apostolic Reformation, and Catholic Integralism Behind Trump’s Agenda

Julie Ingersoll is Professor of Philosophy & Religious Studies and Religious Studies Program Coordinator at the University of North Florida.

Professor Julie Ingersoll’s presentation offered a detailed and analytically nuanced account of the ideological and organizational foundations of contemporary Christian nationalism in the United States, situating it as a significant—though not singular—driver of democratic erosion. Her intervention moved beyond surface-level interpretations of religion in politics, instead tracing the historical formation, internal diversity, and strategic convergence of several distinct religious currents that have, over time, coalesced into a politically influential coalition aligned with authoritarian and anti-pluralist tendencies.

Professor Ingersoll began by clarifying a crucial analytical point: Christian nationalism in the United States is not a monolithic or representative expression of Christianity as a whole. Rather, it is a minority movement whose political influence far exceeds its demographic weight. This disproportionate power, she argued, is the product of decades-long institutional work, coalition-building, and strategic positioning within key domains of political and cultural life. Understanding its impact, therefore, requires attention not only to its beliefs but to the mechanisms through which it has embedded itself within broader structures of authority.

Three Strands, One Project: The Convergence of Christian Nationalism

At the core of her analysis was the identification of three principal strands that together constitute contemporary Christian nationalism: a white conservative evangelical tradition rooted in Christian Reconstructionism, a Catholic integralist tradition, and a Pentecostal-charismatic current associated with the New Apostolic Reformation (NAR). Each of these strands, Professor Ingersoll demonstrated, has its own theological foundations, historical trajectories, and internal logics. Yet, despite significant doctrinal differences, they have converged around shared political objectives and a common perception of existential crisis.

The first strand, Christian Reconstructionism, was presented as a theocratic and patriarchal movement with origins in mid-twentieth-century American religious thought and deeper roots in earlier Southern Presbyterian traditions. Professor Ingersoll emphasized its rejection of pluralism and its insistence that biblical law should govern all aspects of social and political life. Central to this framework is the concept of “calling,” derived from Calvinist theology, which legitimizes hierarchical social arrangements and challenges the democratic principle that authority derives from popular consent. In this view, leadership is not conferred through elections but through divine designation, a premise that fundamentally undermines democratic legitimacy.

The second strand, Catholic integralism, similarly rejects the separation of church and state, advocating instead for a political order grounded in religious authority. Professor Ingersoll noted its growing influence within legal and judicial institutions, particularly through long-term efforts to shape the composition and orientation of the judiciary. Integralist thought, she argued, frames modern liberal institutions—especially those promoting equality—as sources of moral and social decay. Its critique of the administrative state and its support for a strong, centralized executive authority align closely with broader authoritarian tendencies.

The third strand, the New Apostolic Reformation (NAR), introduces a distinct but complementary dimension rooted in charismatic and Pentecostal traditions. This movement emphasizes ongoing revelation, spiritual warfare, and apocalyptic expectation. Its doctrine of the “Seven Mountains Mandate” envisions the systematic transformation of key societal domains—such as government, media, education, and culture—under Christian authority. Professor Ingersoll highlighted the movement’s belief in the active presence of spiritual forces in contemporary political life, a worldview that intensifies polarization and, in some cases, increases the potential for legitimizing conflict and even violence.

Political Convergence in Religious Movements

A central analytical contribution of the presentation lay in explaining how these three strands, despite profound theological disagreements, have formed a cohesive political alliance. Professor Ingersoll challenged the conventional “world religions” model, which treats religious traditions as internally coherent and mutually distinct systems. Instead, she proposed a more fluid understanding of religion as a set of practices and narratives that can be selectively combined to serve social and political purposes. In this framework, doctrinal inconsistencies are less significant than shared goals related to power, identity, and social ordering.

To illustrate this point, she examined differing approaches to biblical authority across the three traditions. While Catholic integralists rely on the interpretive authority of the Church, evangelicals emphasize direct textual interpretation, and Pentecostal-charismatic actors embrace ongoing revelation. These differences, while substantial, are subordinated in practice to a set of shared political commitments: the rejection of pluralism, the affirmation of hierarchical social structures, the belief in divinely ordained leadership, and the pursuit of a theocratic or quasi-theocratic order.

Professor Ingersoll further argued that these movements are united by a common narrative of civilizational crisis. Each interprets contemporary social and political developments—whether related to gender equality, racial justice, or secular governance—as evidence of moral decline. This sense of crisis provides both a justification for radical political intervention and a framework for mobilizing supporters. Within this narrative, democratic institutions are often portrayed not as safeguards of freedom, but as obstacles to the restoration of a divinely sanctioned social order.

Internal Tensions within Christian Nationalism

The presentation also addressed the strategic flexibility of this coalition. While its proponents may utilize democratic mechanisms to gain power, they do not view democracy as intrinsically valuable. Rather, democracy is treated instrumentally, as one possible means of achieving a broader objective. Authoritarian or hierarchical forms of governance are equally acceptable if they are perceived to align with divine authority. This instrumental view of democracy, Professor Ingersoll suggested, represents a fundamental challenge to liberal democratic norms.

In her concluding remarks, Professor Ingersoll pointed to emerging internal tensions within the movement. Differences in theological interpretation, strategic priorities, and leadership styles are beginning to generate visible fractures. For example, divergent understandings of apocalyptic timelines or the role of political violence create points of friction. Additionally, certain political developments—such as controversial leadership claims or symbolic actions—have alienated segments within the coalition. While these divisions do not currently outweigh the movement’s shared objectives, they may become more significant over time.

In sum, Professor Ingersoll’s presentation provided a comprehensive and deeply contextualized analysis of Christian nationalism as a complex, evolving, and strategically coordinated force. By highlighting its internal diversity, institutional entrenchment, and ideological coherence around anti-pluralist principles, she illuminated the ways in which religious narratives and political power intersect in contemporary democratic backsliding. Her analysis underscored that the challenge posed by such movements is not merely theological or cultural, but fundamentally political, with direct implications for the future of democratic governance.

 

Professor Stephan Klingebiel: International Organizations in Times of Populism

Professor Stephan Klingebiel is Head of the Department of Inter- and Transnational Cooperation at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).

Professor Stephan Klingebiel delivered a wide-ranging and analytically grounded presentation examining how the contemporary rise of populism—particularly under the second administration of Donald Trump—is reshaping international organizations, development cooperation, and the normative foundations of global governance. His intervention moved carefully between institutional analysis and broader systemic implications, offering both empirical observations and conceptual framing.

At the outset, Professor Klingebiel positioned his remarks at the intersection of two overlapping domains: the functioning of international organizations and the evolving discourse on development and sustainability. He focused especially on the United Nations Development System, the OECD, and multilateral development banks such as the World Bank. These institutions, he argued, serve not only operational roles in development assistance but also act as key norm-setters in shaping global cooperation. It is precisely these normative and institutional roles that have come under increasing pressure in the current political climate.

From Multilateralism to Uncertainty

Reflecting on developments since early 2025, Professor Klingebiel suggested that the treatment of development cooperation—particularly the dismantling of USAID—served as an early signal of broader patterns in the second Trump administration’s approach to international engagement. What initially appeared as a sector-specific shift quickly revealed itself as part of a more comprehensive reorientation affecting multilateralism as a whole.

To explain these dynamics, Professor Klingebiel identified four interrelated driving logics. First, he pointed to what he termed “crude transactionalism,” a form of foreign policy that reduces international cooperation to immediate, bilateral exchanges rather than long-term institutional commitments. While transactional approaches have long existed in development policy, he argued that the current form is qualitatively different in its intensity and scope, extending into areas such as conflict mediation and geopolitical bargaining.

Second, he highlighted the role of ideological motivations, particularly in relation to issues such as family planning, gender policy, and population governance. Certain international agencies, including those working on reproductive health, have become focal points of contestation, reflecting deeper ideological divides over the scope and purpose of development cooperation.

Third, Professor Klingebiel emphasized the element of institutional disruption driven not by coherent strategy but by what he described as systemic unpredictability. Drawing on insider accounts of the dismantling of USAID, he suggested that many policy decisions appear to lack a consistent strategic foundation, instead reflecting fragmented and reactive processes.

Finally, he identified an “obsession with disruption” as a defining feature of the current approach. This involves the deliberate use of abrupt and highly visible actions—such as withdrawal announcements or dramatic policy shifts—to reshape expectations and unsettle established practices within international cooperation.

Populism and the Fragmentation of Global Cooperation

These underlying logics have translated into a series of concrete policy outcomes. Among the most striking is the dramatic reduction in US foreign aid, which, according to recent OECD data, declined by approximately 57 percent within a single year. Such a contraction, Professor Klingebiel noted, has profound implications not only for recipient countries but also for the broader ecosystem of development actors, including civil society organizations and democracy-support initiatives.

Equally significant is the announced withdrawal from dozens of international bodies. While the practical implementation of these withdrawals remains uneven, their symbolic impact is considerable. They signal a retreat from multilateral engagement and contribute to an atmosphere of uncertainty regarding the future of global cooperation.

However, Professor Klingebiel’s central concern extended beyond these immediate policy shifts to their deeper normative consequences. He argued that the most consequential impact of contemporary populism lies in its erosion of shared frameworks that have historically underpinned international cooperation. These include not only formal institutions but also the implicit agreements on language, priorities, and goals that enable collective action.

This erosion was illustrated through the example of the United Nations 2030 Agenda and its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Once widely accepted as a minimal global consensus on issues such as poverty reduction, inequality, and gender equality, this framework is now increasingly contested. Professor Klingebiel noted that it has been reframed by some political actors as a form of “soft global governance” incompatible with national sovereignty, leading to active efforts to undermine it.

Fragmented Vocabulary, Fragmented Order

A particularly revealing dimension of this shift is the politicization of language itself. Drawing on recent analyses, Professor Klingebiel described how specific terms—such as “gender,” “gender-based violence,” and “climate change”—have become sites of contestation within international forums. The rejection of these terms is not merely semantic; it reflects a broader attempt to reshape the normative boundaries of acceptable discourse. In practice, this has led to subtle but significant changes, with institutions adopting alternative terminology that dilutes or reframes established concepts.

This process, he argued, contributes to a broader fragmentation of normative consensus. Where international cooperation once relied on a shared vocabulary and a baseline agreement on goals, it now operates within an increasingly contested and politicized environment. This fragmentation is further intensified by the emergence of competing visions of world order, in which different actors promote alternative frameworks for development and governance.

At the same time, Professor Klingebiel cautioned against attributing these transformations solely to Western populism. He emphasized the growing agency of actors in what is often termed the Global South, including countries such as China and India, as well as smaller states that increasingly pursue multi-alignment strategies. These actors are not merely passive recipients of global norms but active participants in shaping them, contributing to a more complex and pluralistic international landscape.

Within this evolving context, development cooperation itself is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Rather than serving primarily as a tool for poverty reduction or social development, it is increasingly embedded within geopolitical and geo-economic competition. Institutions originally designed for development purposes are being repurposed to secure access to strategic resources or to advance national interests.

Pockets of Cooperation: Uneven Continuity in Global Governance

Despite this challenging environment, Professor Klingebiel identified areas of cautious optimism. He pointed to the emergence of what he termed “mixed coalitions”—alliances that bring together actors from both the Global North and South who remain committed to multilateralism. Additionally, he highlighted the existence of “pockets of effectiveness,” instances in which international cooperation continues to function successfully despite broader systemic pressures.

These pockets, while limited, suggest that multilateralism is not uniformly in decline but rather unevenly contested. Understanding the conditions under which cooperation remains viable, Professor Klingebiel suggested, may offer valuable insights for sustaining and rebuilding international frameworks in the future.

In concluding, his presentation offered a sober but nuanced assessment. The current moment is marked not only by policy shifts but by a deeper transformation of the principles and assumptions that have long guided international cooperation. Yet within this transformation, there remain spaces for adaptation, coalition-building, and renewed engagement—provided that these efforts are grounded in a clear understanding of the changing landscape.

 

Professor Benjamin Carter Hett: Humiliation, Elite Impunity, and the Anti-System Gamble — Weimar-Type Mechanisms in Contemporary Grievance Politics

Professor Benjamin Carter Hett.
Professor Benjamin Carter Hett is a leading historian of Nazi Germany at Hunter College and the Graduate Center, CUNY.

Professor Benjamin Carter Hett’s presentation offered a historically grounded and analytically provocative reflection on the political mechanisms that enabled the collapse of the Weimar Republic and the rise of National Socialism, while also considering the relevance of those mechanisms for contemporary grievance politics. Drawing on decades of research into late Weimar Germany, Professor Hett approached the subject with both scholarly caution and interpretive clarity. He was careful not to collapse historical contexts into one another, yet he argued that certain recurring dynamics—particularly humiliation, status anxiety, and the search for anti-system solutions—remain crucial for understanding how democratic orders become vulnerable to authoritarian appeals.

Professor Hett began by acknowledging the uneasy position of the historian in conversations about the present. Historians, he suggested, may at times reconstruct the past with care, but they are not necessarily the best guides to contemporary politics or future developments. Nonetheless, his long engagement with the final years of the Weimar Republic had led him to a set of conclusions about why that democracy failed, and these conclusions, he argued, may still offer insight into current political developments.

Humiliation and Status Anxiety

The core of Professor Hett’s argument was that the Nazi breakthrough in Germany cannot be fully understood simply through economic distress, institutional weakness, or generalized political radicalization. While all of these factors mattered, he emphasized that the message which most powerfully resonated with Nazi voters was a message organized around humiliation and its close companion, status anxiety. The emotional and symbolic dimensions of political life, in his reading, were central. What drove substantial sectors of the electorate toward the Nazis was not only hardship, but the belief that they had been dishonored, displaced, and stripped of their rightful standing.

To develop this claim, Professor Hett drew on voting studies, especially the work of German political scientist Jürgen W. Falter, whose statistical analyses remain among the most important accounts of Nazi electoral support. Since Germany in the late 1920s and early 1930s did not have opinion polling in the modern sense, scholars must reconstruct political behavior by examining constituency-level voting patterns and comparing them with the themes emphasized in Nazi campaigning. This allows one to identify which messages resonated with which groups, and why.

From this evidence, Professor Hett argued that Nazi appeals found their strongest reception among those constituencies most susceptible to humiliation and fears of status loss. These were particularly concentrated among Protestant middle-class voters, especially in rural northern and eastern Germany. The Nazi Party’s success, in his account, lay in its ability to transform diffuse anxieties into a coherent political narrative: Germany was being humiliated by external forces, weakened by internal enemies, and betrayed by a democratic system incapable of defending national dignity.

A major source of this humiliation, he suggested, was Germany’s place in the post-World War I international order. The Treaty of Versailles, reparations, the international oversight of German finance, and the constraints imposed on national sovereignty created a pervasive sense that Germany had lost control over its own destiny. Economic arrangements linked to reparations, including the role of international banking mechanisms and the subordination of German monetary policy to Allied preferences, reinforced this sense of national dependency. What later generations might describe as resentment toward globalization, Professor Hett argued, already had clear political expression in this period, even if the term itself was not yet available.

Seeds of Nazi Mobilization

This resentment was especially powerful in the countryside. Reduced tariffs and intensified agricultural competition placed heavy pressure on German farmers, especially in the north and east, where farm bankruptcies became common. At the same time, Germany’s limited ability to control its eastern border, particularly with newly established Poland, turned migration and refugee flows into volatile political issues. These developments fed the perception that the democratic state was either unwilling or unable to defend the nation’s interests. The Nazis capitalized on precisely these grievances, presenting themselves as nationalist champions against foreign domination, financial dependency, border insecurity, and economic dislocation.

Professor Hett also introduced a second, equally important dimension of humiliation: the perceived loss of religious and cultural status among German Protestants. Here his analysis intersected with broader questions of identity and belonging. Before World War I, Protestantism had enjoyed a privileged position within the German Empire. But the Weimar Republic, in the eyes of many Protestants, appeared to be politically shaped by forces outside that tradition. Its principal architects and defenders included Social Democrats, Catholics, and the Jewish legal scholar Hugo Preuss, who played a major role in drafting the constitution.

For many Protestants, Professor Hett argued, this generated a deep sense of displacement. They experienced the new order not merely as politically different, but as a system in which they had lost social and moral primacy. In electoral terms, this proved crucial. Catholics largely did not vote Nazi, in part because they had a confessional political home within the Center Party and did not feel comparably estranged from the Weimar system. Nor did the industrial working-class core of the Social Democrats move en masse toward the Nazis. The party that the Nazis most successfully destroyed, Professor Hett observed, was the Protestant middle class. In this sense, National Socialism became, to a significant degree, the party of aggrieved Protestant respectability.

This reading also enabled Professor Hett to place Weimar Germany within a broader comparative pattern. Across the authoritarian turn of the 1920s and 1930s, humiliation appeared repeatedly as a politically generative force. Citing the work of historian Robert Paxton, he noted that the rise of fascist or authoritarian systems correlated strongly with defeat in World War I—or, in some cases, with a perceived defeat. Italy, for example, had technically emerged from the war on the victorious side, yet many Italians experienced the outcome as a “mutilated victory,” a phrase that captured their sense of insult and dispossession. Authoritarian politics fed on that perception.

Global Echoes: From MAGA to European Anti-Globalization Movements

Having established these historical mechanisms, Professor Hett turned more tentatively to the present. Here he stressed again that analogies must remain cautious, yet he argued that the politics of humiliation and status anxiety are clearly visible in contemporary democracies, especially in the United States. In his view, these dynamics are among the strongest factors behind support for Donald Trump. Trump’s appeal, he suggested, has been rooted not simply in policy commitments or ideological clarity, but in the promise of retribution for those who feel displaced by social and demographic change.

The rhetoric of “I am your retribution,” which Trump used in the 2024 campaign, was especially telling in this regard. Retribution for what, Professor Hett asked implicitly, if not for a perceived historical loss of primacy? The contemporary politics of race, migration, and hostility to diversity initiatives were, in his interpretation, best understood as efforts to reassure a predominantly white constituency that feels that others have unjustly advanced at its expense. The appeal to a mythologized past—captured in slogans such as “Make America Great Again”—functions not simply as nostalgia, but as a restoration narrative aimed at those who believe they have been humiliated by modern equality.

Professor Hett then broadened the frame to Europe. Anti-globalization sentiment, he argued, has played a comparable role in the rise of populist and authoritarian parties across the continent. The Brexit vote, the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), and wider resentment toward migration all reflect forms of status anxiety tied to the belief that one’s country is becoming “someone else’s country.” In the German case, he pointed especially to eastern Germany, where support for the far right remains heavily concentrated. Drawing on personal observations as well as broader political patterns, he described a durable sense among many East Germans that they have been serially humiliated since reunification.

From Status Loss to Authoritarian Opportunity

These feelings, he suggested, are not reducible to economics alone. They involve wounded dignity, symbolic exclusion, and the perception that one’s world has been politically and culturally devalued. In this sense, grievance politics becomes especially potent when it can link structural change to a narrative of dishonor.

Professor Hett concluded by suggesting, modestly, that if humiliation and status anxiety are indeed major drivers of anti-system politics, then effective democratic responses must address the material and symbolic conditions that sustain them. He mentioned the idea of a kind of “Marshall Plan 2.0” as one possible way of mitigating some of the economic transformations that deepen discontent. Yet he remained cautious about prescribing solutions beyond his field of expertise.

What his presentation offered most powerfully was not a simple warning from history, but a historically informed framework for thinking about how democracies are undone. By centering humiliation, elite impunity, and status loss, Professor Hett illuminated the emotional structure of grievance politics and the ways in which anti-system actors transform wounded identities into authoritarian opportunity.

 

Discussions

The Q&A session following the first panel unfolded as a reflective and deeply engaged exchange, bringing together personal testimony, empirical insight, and conceptual debate. The discussion not only reinforced several core arguments presented earlier—particularly those concerning humiliation, status anxiety, and democratic erosion—but also broadened the analytical frame by introducing additional variables, including pandemic effects, structural inequality, and adaptive institutional responses.

Irina von Wiese opened the exchange with a personal intervention that lent lived texture to the abstract dynamics discussed by Professor Benjamin Carter Hett. Drawing on her own experience as a West German working in eastern Germany immediately after reunification, she offered a candid account of the asymmetries that characterized that moment. As a young legal advisor involved in constitutional development in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, she observed what she described as a pervasive arrogance among West German professionals toward their East German counterparts—many of whom had endured political repression but lacked formal credentials. This imbalance, she suggested, generated a reservoir of resentment that remained latent for decades before finding political expression.

Her reflections underscored a central theme in Professor Hett’s analysis: that humiliation is not always immediate in its political effects, but can endure, accumulate, and eventually crystallize into protest or support for anti-system actors. Von Wiese noted that the eventual rise of far-right mobilization in eastern Germany was not sudden, but rather the delayed outcome of long-standing grievances awaiting political articulation. In this sense, the emergence of parties such as the far right can be seen less as the origin of discontent than as its vehicle.

Extending her argument beyond Germany, von Wiese pointed to similar dynamics in other contexts, including her experiences in the United States and the United Kingdom. She recalled the stark social contrasts she encountered outside elite academic environments in the United States during the early 1990s, particularly in relation to poverty and racial segregation. These conditions, she argued, formed part of the underlying landscape that later enabled figures like Donald Trump to mobilize political support. Likewise, she interpreted the Brexit campaign as deeply rooted in narratives of national decline and loss of status, with appeals to a diminished imperial past serving as a powerful emotional driver.

While affirming the explanatory value of humiliation and status anxiety, von Wiese also raised a critical question regarding remedies. She expressed skepticism about whether economic interventions alone—such as a modern “Marshall Plan”—would suffice, suggesting that deeper systemic transformations may be required, particularly in relation to inequality and the structure of contemporary capitalism. Her intervention thus shifted the discussion from diagnosis to the more difficult terrain of response.

The Multi-Dimensional Nature of Democratic Backsliding

Professor Ruth Wodak followed by situating the panel within a broader interdisciplinary framework. She emphasized the importance of integrating multiple analytical perspectives in order to grasp the complexity of contemporary democratic challenges. While acknowledging the relevance of Professor Hett’s emphasis on humiliation and recognition, she cautioned against overly singular explanations. In her view, democratic backsliding and far-right mobilization are multi-causal phenomena that cannot be reduced to a single driver.

Professor Wodak introduced two additional factors that she argued deserve greater attention. The first was the long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. She suggested that the pandemic generated widespread fear and uncertainty on a global scale, creating fertile ground for both authoritarian narratives and renewed forms of religiosity. Drawing on sociological insights, she noted that periods of existential anxiety often lead individuals to seek stability in identity-based frameworks, including religion, while also increasing susceptibility to aggression and polarization. In this sense, the pandemic may have functioned as an accelerant in the latest phase of far-right mobilization.

The second factor she highlighted was what might be termed anticipatory anxiety. While Professor Hett’s framework emphasizes the experience of humiliation and loss, Professor Wodak pointed to cases where far-right support is strongest not among the most economically deprived, but in relatively affluent societies. Citing examples such as Austria, Switzerland, and Denmark, she observed that high levels of prosperity have not prevented the rise of far-right parties. Instead, she suggested, these contexts are characterized by a fear of losing existing advantages—a forward-looking anxiety rather than a retrospective grievance. This introduces a subtle but important distinction: the politics of resentment may be driven as much by perceived future decline as by past injustice.

Turning to the question of institutional response, Professor Wodak engaged with the earlier presentation by Professor Stephan Klingebiel on the politicization of development discourse. She noted that while certain policy areas—such as gender and climate—have become targets of political contestation, actors within international organizations have begun to develop adaptive strategies. One such strategy involves reframing or relabeling projects in order to avoid triggering ideological opposition, while continuing substantive work under different terminology. This form of quiet institutional resilience, she suggested, illustrates how bureaucratic actors may navigate hostile political environments without abandoning core objectives.

At the same time, Professor Wodak did not understate the severity of recent developments, particularly the dismantling of major development institutions and the reduction of aid flows. She highlighted the moral and human consequences of such policies, noting the stark contradiction between global wealth concentration and the withdrawal of support for the world’s most vulnerable populations. Her remarks conveyed both analytical concern and normative urgency.

Explaining Religious-Political Convergence

The Q&A session continued with a focused exchange between Dr. Bulent Kenes, and Professor Julie Ingersoll, centering on the timing and recent consolidation of religiously driven political movements in the United States. The question probed a central puzzle emerging from the panel: while religious actors have long played a role in American public life, why have certain strands of Christian nationalism reached a new peak of visibility and influence at this particular historical juncture?

In posing the question, Dr. Kenes framed the issue as one of convergence. He invited Professor Ingersoll to reflect on whether the current moment could be explained by the interaction of structural and contingent factors—demographic change, economic insecurity, intensifying political polarization, and the strategic mobilization of religious networks within populist movements. His formulation implicitly shifted the discussion from historical description to causal explanation, asking not simply what these movements are, but why their influence has crystallized now.

In her response, Professor Ingersoll offered a careful recalibration of the premise. She challenged the assumption that these religious formations have always existed in their present form, emphasizing instead their relatively recent consolidation. While acknowledging that certain traditions—particularly Catholic political engagement—have deep historical roots, she argued that the specific configurations associated with contemporary Christian nationalism represent a more recent development. These movements, in her account, should not be understood as continuous extensions of longstanding traditions, but as new iterations shaped by decades of strategic organization.

A central element of her explanation was the long-term institutional work undertaken by groups such as the Christian Reconstructionists. Over several decades, these actors invested in building parallel educational infrastructures, including private Christian school networks that later evolved into homeschooling systems. These institutions did more than provide alternative education; they cultivated generational continuity, transmitting a distinct worldview and historical narrative that diverged from mainstream interpretations. This process, Professor Ingersoll suggested, has created a durable social base capable of sustaining and amplifying political influence.

Importantly, she situated the expansion of these networks within a specific historical context: the desegregation of public schools. The timing was consequential. As integration policies reshaped the public education system, segments of white evangelical communities withdrew into private and religious schooling structures. While often framed in theological terms, this shift also intersected with broader social and racial dynamics, allowing communities to maintain separation while articulating their choices through religious language. Over time, these parallel institutions became key sites of ideological formation.

Professor Ingersoll also pointed to more recent catalysts, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic. Echoing earlier remarks in the panel, she argued that the pandemic functioned as a moment of intensified mobilization. Religious actors capitalized on widespread uncertainty and fear, framing public health measures—such as restrictions on gatherings—as threats to religious freedom. This narrative, she suggested, resonated strongly within conservative constituencies, reinforcing existing suspicions of state overreach and contributing to a broader sense of existential threat.

At the same time, Professor Ingersoll emphasized that no single factor can account for the current prominence of these movements. Rather, their rise reflects the cumulative effect of long-term organizational strategies interacting with more immediate political and social disruptions. What appears as a sudden surge is, in her formulation, the visible outcome of processes that have been unfolding over decades.

Secularization, Inequality, and Backlash

The exchange moved beyond diagnosis toward a more reflective interrogation of responsibility, causality, and the limits of existing analytical frameworks. Professor Jack A. Goldstone suggested that what is currently unfolding across multiple contexts is not merely the resurgence of religion or populism in isolation, but the normalization of an assertive and exclusionary ideological fusion—where perceived humiliation is channeled into aggressive identity-based politics. In this reading, religious nationalism operates not only as belief, but as a vehicle for reasserting dominance in response to status loss.

Professor Goldstone then turned a critical eye toward the role of social science itself, arguing that earlier intellectual assumptions may have inadvertently contributed to the present moment. The expectation that secularization would steadily marginalize religion, he suggested, proved deeply misleading. Instead, policies and discourses shaped by this assumption often alienated religious communities, creating fertile ground for backlash movements that now seek to reintegrate religion into the core of political authority. Parallel to this, he identified a second misjudgment in economic thinking: the prioritization of growth over distribution. While aggregate prosperity increased, the failure to address inequality produced widespread discontent, reinforcing perceptions of exclusion and injustice.

Extending this argument, Professor Goldstone highlighted a longer-term global transformation. Over the past half century, the relative dominance of Western societies has eroded, as economic and technological advancements in other regions have reshaped the global hierarchy. This shift, he argued, has unsettled previously taken-for-granted assumptions of superiority among segments of Western populations. The resulting nostalgia—rooted in a memory of unchallenged status—feeds contemporary grievance politics. His central question, directed to the panel, concerned how societies might address this structural recalibration without intensifying resentment, exclusion, and the normalization of antagonistic rhetoric.

The Deepening Impact of Populist Pressure

Responding to earlier interventions and this broader framing, Professor Stephan Klingebiel emphasized that the current transformations cannot be reduced to discursive shifts alone. While the strategic avoidance or substitution of politically sensitive terminology—such as replacing “climate change” or “gender” with more neutral language—may offer short-term tactical advantages, he cautioned that such practices risk deeper forms of self-censorship. This “self-policing,” as he described it, signals not adaptation but internalization of external pressure, ultimately weakening the normative foundations of international cooperation.

Professor Klingebiel further underscored that the stakes extend beyond language to the substance of policy and institutional priorities. Changes in funding allocations, the redirection of development agendas, and the politicization of multilateral institutions reflect a broader erosion of solidarity. He pointed to a shifting political climate in which engagement with development cooperation—once a source of professional and political legitimacy—has become increasingly stigmatized. This transformation, he suggested, illustrates how populist pressures reshape not only public discourse but also the incentives and self-perceptions of policymakers.

At the same time, Professor Klingebiel stressed the necessity of active resistance. Silence or strategic accommodation, in his view, risks accelerating the very dynamics it seeks to navigate. Instead, he advocated for the formation of new coalitions among actors committed to multilateralism and democratic norms. Crucially, he also called for a rethinking of how academic and policy communities communicate their work. Empirical evidence, while indispensable, is no longer sufficient in isolation. To counter populist narratives effectively, scholars must engage more directly with the emotional and symbolic dimensions of political life—crafting narratives that resonate beyond technocratic audiences.

In sum, this segment of the discussion highlighted a convergence around a central insight: contemporary democratic challenges are sustained by an interplay of structural change, emotional response, and discursive transformation. Addressing them requires not only institutional reform or policy adjustment, but also a deeper engagement with the narratives through which individuals interpret their place in a rapidly changing world.

 

Conclusion

Panel 1 of the symposium offered more than a set of parallel analyses; it articulated a coherent and multi-dimensional understanding of how contemporary democratic erosion takes shape. Across the presentations and subsequent discussion, a consistent insight emerged: populist radicalization is neither episodic nor accidental, but the outcome of long-term interactions between structural transformations, ideological projects, and affective dynamics. Grievance, as the panel demonstrated, does not automatically translate into anti-democratic politics. It becomes politically consequential when it is narrated, organized, and strategically mobilized through discursive, institutional, and symbolic means.

A central contribution of the panel lies in its insistence on integrating the emotional and the structural. Processes such as humiliation, status anxiety, and fear of future loss were shown to operate not as secondary effects, but as constitutive elements of political mobilization. At the same time, these affective dynamics are embedded within broader shifts – economic dislocation, geopolitical reordering, and the erosion of normative consensus in international cooperation. The convergence of these factors creates conditions under which exclusionary ideologies can gain legitimacy and resonance across diverse contexts.

Equally important was the panel’s attention to the role of agency – both in the emergence of populist forces and in the responses available to democratic actors. The discussions highlighted how political entrepreneurs, religious movements, and institutional actors actively construct narratives that transform diffuse unease into coherent political projects. Yet they also pointed to the adaptive capacities within democratic systems, including the formation of new coalitions, the persistence of institutional “pockets of effectiveness,” and the possibility of recalibrating political communication to address not only facts, but meanings and emotions.

The implications of these insights are both analytical and normative. If democratic erosion is prepared through gradual normalization, discursive shifts, and the instrumentalization of identity, then its counter requires equally sustained and multidimensional responses. Institutional reforms, while necessary, are insufficient in isolation. What is required is a renewed engagement with the cultural, social, and emotional foundations of democratic life – an effort to reconstruct not only policies, but also the narratives and forms of recognition that underpin democratic legitimacy.

In sum, the panel underscored that the trajectory from grievance to radicalization is not predetermined. It remains contingent on how societies interpret, articulate, and respond to the pressures they face. Understanding this contingency is essential not only for diagnosing democratic decline, but for imagining pathways of resilience and renewal in an increasingly unsettled global order.