Professor Danielle Allen.

Prof. Allen: AI Should Strengthen Human Judgment, Not Replace It

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming far more than information ecosystems—it is reshaping the constitutional foundations of democracy itself. In this interview with the ECPS, Professor Danielle Allen argues that the central challenge of AI is not merely technological but constitutional, requiring democratic societies to rethink representation, political power, and civic agency. Rejecting technological determinism, she contends that democratic institutions can still shape AI’s trajectory, provided they strengthen rather than diminish human judgment. Discussing populism, democratic backsliding, surveillance, intermediary institutions, digital citizenship, and constitutional reform, Professor Allen presents a compelling vision of democratic renewal grounded in one core principle: artificial intelligence should complement human capacities—not replace the judgment upon which liberal democracy ultimately depends.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming the institutional architecture of democratic politics. While much public debate has focused on misinformation, deepfakes, automation, and employment, a growing body of scholarship suggests that the more profound implications of generative AI lie elsewhere: in its capacity to reshape political authority, democratic representation, and the constitutional foundations of liberal self-government. As AI systems increasingly mediate public discourse, organize information, influence political preferences, and concentrate unprecedented forms of economic and computational power, the central question is no longer simply how societies should regulate a new technology, but how constitutional democracies themselves must adapt to preserve political equality, civic agency, and democratic accountability.

Few scholars are better positioned to address these challenges than Professor Danielle Allen, James Bryant Conant University Professor at Harvard University, Director of the Allen Lab for Democracy Renovation and the Democratic Knowledge Project, and one of the world’s leading political philosophers working at the intersection of constitutional democracy, citizenship, technology, and democratic renewal. In her widely discussed Journal of Democracy essay, The Real Dangers of Generative AI,” Professor Allen argues that contemporary debates have fundamentally misidentified the nature of the challenge. Rather than treating AI as merely a technological disruption, she contends that it represents a constitutional turning point requiring a fundamental rethinking of democratic institutions themselves.

In this wide-ranging interview with the European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), Professor Allen offers a remarkably expansive framework for understanding how AI intersects with democratic governance. Rejecting the conventional separation between technology and constitutional politics, she argues that “political institutions are themselves technologies” and therefore cannot be understood independently of technological transformation. From this perspective, AI is not simply another digital innovation but a force capable of altering the institutional mechanisms through which democratic societies organize representation, distribute political power, and preserve constitutional order.

Throughout the conversation, Professor Allen explores the twin dangers confronting liberal democracies: democratic collapse, produced by the erosion of trustworthy informational infrastructures, and democratic singularity, arising from unprecedented concentrations of computational, informational, and economic power. At the same time, she rejects technological determinism. Instead, she insists that democratic societies retain the capacity to shape AI’s trajectory through institutional reform, constitutional safeguards, and renewed democratic participation.

A recurring theme throughout the interview is the centrality of human agency. Professor Allen argues that democratic renewal ultimately depends not upon resisting technological innovation but upon designing institutions that preserve civic judgment and constitutional self-government. As she puts it, “technology always develops out of a moral vision,” making AI fundamentally a political rather than merely technical question. Consequently, she maintains that the essential democratic task is not simply regulating machines but ensuring that “AI should strengthen human judgment, not replace it.” That principle ultimately serves as the interview’s normative anchor, connecting questions of constitutional design, democratic education, AI governance, intermediary institutions, populism, surveillance, and the future of liberal democracy into a single coherent vision of democratic resilience in the age of artificial intelligence.

Here is the revised version of our interview with Professor Danielle Allen, edited lightly to enhance clarity, readability, and overall flow for publication.

Political Institutions Are Themselves Technologies

Facial recognition technology.
Facial recognition technology scans individuals and displays digital identity and personal data, illustrating AI-powered biometric surveillance. Photo: Piyamas Dulmunsumphun / Dreamstime.

Professor Allen, welcome! Let me begin with your recent Journal of Democracy article, The Real Dangers of Generative AI.” You argue that public debate has focused too heavily on misinformation, deepfakes, and job displacement while overlooking AI’s deeper capacity to restructure political authority and democratic institutions. Why do you believe the greatest threat posed by generative AI is constitutional rather than merely technological, and how does this fundamentally change the way scholars should understand democratic backsliding?

Professor Danielle Allen: Thank you. It’s an important question. I would start by saying that I don’t draw a distinction between the merely technological and the constitutional. Political institutions are themselves technologies. Representation, when it was invented in the eighteenth century, along with electoral districts and voting methods and so forth, was a technology. It was a technology for channeling citizens’ voices into decision-making and producing a counterweight to the other forms of power that existed in monarchical and aristocratic structures. Consequently, any major technological change that affects information, communication, and related domains has the potential to disrupt that foundational technology through which we organize politics.

For the last four decades, policymaking circles have prioritized material well-being while substantially downgrading questions of political organization. As a result, we have underestimated and under-attended to the ways new technologies can disrupt our core political technologies because of this broader blind spot in thinking about politics. In that regard, what I’m trying to do is rectify a broader blind spot in policymaking—to help people remember that our political institutions, whether people have political empowerment, access to voice, and so forth, are essential parts of the story of human flourishing. We have to pay attention to those things as policymakers. And secondly, we have to pay close attention whenever a major disruptive technology directly interacts with those original technologies of representation.

The Concentration of Power Poses Dangers to Core Democratic Rights

You distinguish between what you call “democratic collapse” and “democratic singularity.” Could you explain how these two concepts differ? To what extent does the concentration of computational, informational, and economic power in a handful of corporations create conditions that resemble the concentration of political power traditionally associated with authoritarian regimes?

Professor Danielle Allen: Great question. What my co-author, E. Glen Weyl, and I were trying to do in that article was to describe two dangers that liberal democracies have to navigate. We call these the danger of collapse and the danger of singularity.

The danger of collapse is one in which the informational infrastructures on which you rely for popular sovereignty and institutionally driven decision-making no longer function because of misinformation, deepfakes, the collapse of identity systems, and things like that. That’s one danger the new technologies are provoking as they interact with the traditional technologies of representation.

The second danger is the concentration of power that you’ve been describing. That concentration can emerge in several ways. There’s the issue of capital, the concentration of capital, and the sort of political power that flows from it. There’s also the issue of the concentration of power through control of data and surveillance capacity. Both of those things harbor dangers to core democratic rights, whether those are rights of privacy or rights of equal voice in a political system, and so forth.

So, these are the two dangers: on the one hand, the possibility of chaos and collapse; on the other, the concentration of power. The hard question, then, is how the institutions of liberal democracy can steer through this period of rapid change and transformation, secure control over the new technologies, and truly integrate their capacities into the project of liberal self-government.

What We Really Have Is a Clash of Intermediaries

Truth Social.
Truth Social displayed on a smartphone. The social media platform, owned by Donald Trump, was launched as an alternative to mainstream social media. Photo: Rokas Tenys / Dreamstime.

Across Europe and North America, populist leaders increasingly claim to represent “the people” while simultaneously attacking intermediary institutions such as independent media, universities, courts, and civil services. Does generative AI risk accelerating precisely this populist logic by allowing leaders to communicate directly with citizens while bypassing democratic intermediaries altogether?

Professor Danielle Allen: That’s a great question. I would put the situation slightly differently. I would say it’s not so much that they’re bypassing intermediaries as deploying AI as a new kind of intermediary. In that regard, yes, the traditional intermediaries are under pressure from a new set of intermediaries. Those new intermediaries are the tech infrastructures that populists are using to communicate. In other words, when President Trump establishes Truth Social as an alternative to the existing social media platforms, he is not dispensing with intermediaries but creating his own intermediary, namely that platform.

So, what we really have is a clash of intermediaries. The challenge is that the old intermediaries—universities, newspapers, the traditional institutions, and so forth—grew up in a legal environment, and actively defended a legal environment, that placed a set of basic rights at its center: freedom of expression, freedom of conscience, freedom of civil society to maintain independence from government, and the like.

The new intermediaries, by contrast, are not necessarily dependent on those basic rights for their growth or committed to protecting them. That’s where the problem arises.

This is captured, for example, in the challenge surrounding Section 230 of the US Communications Decency Act. That provision has essentially exempted social media platforms from regulation on the grounds that regulating them would amount to regulating speech. It collapses speech and algorithms. We ought to be able to regulate algorithms, which essentially perform an editorial or publishing function, in the same way that the print media found itself regulated.

Print media was liable for libel, defamation, and similar harms because of its editorial decisions, whereas social media platforms have been exempted from all of that. Mistakenly exempted, that’s the point I’m making. Because they have been able to flourish without the kinds of careful mechanisms for balancing the protection of speech rights with protection against harms such as defamation and libel, we have experienced rampant problems of misinformation. So, the point I’m trying to make is simply that the old intermediaries have baked into them a more stable and useful rights-based structure than the new intermediaries do.

The Personalized Algorithmic Universe Is Becoming Completely Unreliable

Your work suggests that democracy ultimately depends upon citizens sharing a sufficiently common informational environment. Yet generative AI enables highly individualized persuasion at unprecedented scale. Are we moving from an era of mass propaganda toward what might be called algorithmic individualized populism, where every voter effectively receives a personalized political reality?

Professor Danielle Allen: That’s a great question. To some extent, I think the answer has to be ‘yes’. Although I think there’s a situation beyond that. What is really happening is that everybody is going to be thrown back on communication with their own trusted networks, and that’s what they will rely on as their source of information.

The personalized algorithmic universe is also one that people are already coming to recognize as completely unreliable. You can’t distinguish between AI-generated things and real things, and so forth. As we develop digital competence—and by that I mean the ability to use these tools ourselves so that we can understand how easily they can be manipulated and manipulate others—we will inoculate ourselves against some of the dangers of that algorithmic environment.

What that, then, means is that we will basically trust the people we actually know and our communications with those people. So, in a funny way, the very big world that we had made small through communications technology is about to become much bigger again. It is going to be harder for people to share trusted messages at scale, precisely because the level of distrust is going to be so high.

We Need Algorithms That Encourage People to Bridge Viewpoint Differences

Artificial Intelligence.
Artificial intelligence as a next-generation technology shaping the digital era. Photo: Dreamstime.

One striking feature of contemporary populism is its capacity to transform emotional identity into political loyalty. To what extent do recommended algorithms and generative AI amplify precisely those forms of resentment, grievance, and identity polarization upon which contemporary populist movements increasingly depend?

Professor Danielle Allen: They certainly seem to be very active contributors to that. There’s important work being done now by technologists and political scientists to propose alternative structures for algorithms that are focused on pro-social incentives—algorithmic incentives that encourage people to build more bridges across viewpoint differences—and better contextualization tools so that people can see the full spread of opinion and understand where their own opinion sits within that landscape. That helps avoid some of the effects and emotional impacts that come from the siloization of opinion.

The problems you’re describing are all very real. They are the dominant problems in our social media and algorithmic landscape at the moment. At the same time, there really is innovative new work. I’m thinking of people like Aviv Ovadya and his colleague Luke Thorburn, and others who are generating an alternative set of structures for our algorithmic foundation.

Existing Scholarly Foundations Can Be Extended Into the Age of AI

Much scholarship on democratic erosion focuses on executive aggrandizement, judicial capture, electoral manipulation, and attacks on independent institutions. Does AI require us to rethink democratic backsliding itself by recognizing that democracy may now be weakened through the concentration of technological infrastructure rather than solely through constitutional manipulation?

Professor Danielle Allen: I’m not so sure if it requires fundamentally different analytical categories. When, for example, people were studying the genocides in Rwanda, Serbia, and Croatia, one of the key technologies that facilitated them was radio and its use to spread slurs, dehumanizing rhetoric, and memes that helped frame the ultimate victims of genocide as enemies and non-humans, and things like that. My point is that the study of autocracy has long included the study of technology and mass communication. Those pre-existing scholarly foundations can simply be extended into the contemporary context. I don’t think it’s a change of kind so much as a change of scale.

We Don’t Face an Emerging Problem—We Face an Already Existing One

You argue that democracy requires not merely political equality but also a broad distribution of power. Looking at the rapid consolidation of frontier AI among a handful of technology companies, do you believe liberal democracies face an emerging form of private constitutional power that existing democratic institutions are largely unequipped to regulate?

Professor Danielle Allen: I think we don’t face an emerging problem; we face an actually existent, interior problem. It has already emerged, and it’s a totally real problem. Europe has done a better job regulating this power than the US has. I’m thinking about the GDPR(The General Data Protection Regulation) and other forms of regulation, including the recent EU AI Act. That tells me it’s not that liberal democracies lack the capacity to regulate these technologies; it’s that the US, specifically, doesn’t have the capacity right now to regulate them. So, this is not a permanent problem but a political problem here in the US.

I also think we probably have a lot to learn from the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, the first Gilded Age, as we call it. We’re living through a second Gilded Age, and just as in the first, industrialization produced corporations with enormous concentrations of power, robber barons, and corporations that sought monopolistic control not only of the economy but also of political structures. We’re watching a repeat of all of that.

Those concentrations of power were broken up in the early twentieth century through a very serious array of anti-trust policies. People often point to the importance of the work of Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis, for example. Today, there’s a whole slew of what people call neo-Brandeisian anti-monopoly policies that many are advocating. I think we do need another era of trust-busting, breaking up those concentrations of power.

I know the dynamic right now between Europe, the EU, and the US is extremely complicated and painful. I will say that I take it as good news that Europe is starting to build a path toward empowering its own tech companies. I do think that taking on the monopoly of the US firms is an important thing to do.

There’s Going to Be a Battle Between Globe-Spanning Tech Powers and Nation-States

Elon Musk.
Elon Musk—founder and CEO of SpaceX, CEO of Tesla, owner of X (formerly Twitter), and co-founder of Neuralink and OpenAI—speaks at VIVA Technology (VivaTech), June 16, 2023. Photo: Frédéric Legrand / Dreamstime.

Throughout democratic history, monopolies over information have often strengthened authoritarian rule. How different is today’s AI revolution from earlier media revolutions such as radio, television, or social media? Does generative AI represent a quantitative extension of those transformations, or does it constitute a genuinely new constitutional moment?

Professor Danielle Allen: It’s a great question. To be honest, I don’t think I really have an answer. In some ways, it’s an obvious continuation, and I’ve already mentioned that. On the other hand, the speed and scale of change are wholly new for humanity. That’s honestly the part that concerns me the most: the rapidity and the totalizing nature of it.

Take the fact that somebody like Elon Musk can, in five years, manage to have half of the world’s satellites in space. It’s probably more than half of them by now. He has the capacity to intervene directly in geopolitical decision-making among the world’s nation-states. That’s what’s fundamentally different. The earlier technologies came into existence and existed essentially within nation-states. We now have corporations with a degree of political control that puts them in a more powerful position than nation-states.

It’s not that this has never happened before. In the eighteenth century, for example, Britain faced, roughly speaking, a similar kind of problem with the East India Company. Other European powers faced similar challenges with the colonial trading empires that they first allowed to grow and then discovered had gone beyond their control. That, of course, led to the struggles in the nineteenth century between nation-state governments and those colonial companies. We are likely to see another period of that kind of struggle.

I don’t think the nation-state is doomed. I don’t think it’s doomed primarily because people still live in places. Human beings are embodied, and we are instantiated in geographic locales. Our communities matter to us, and that feature of human life, which starts from the ground and extends outward, will continue to be an important part of governance and jurisdictionality. So, in that regard, there’s going to be a battle, for sure, between globe-spanning tech powers and nation-states. I do think nation-states can win in the end. And I would argue they should win. But it’s going to be a very hard period of struggle.

Technology Should Complement Human Intelligence, Not Replace It

In “How AI Fails Us,” you criticize the dominant vision of AI as autonomous intelligence and instead advocate technologies that augment human cooperation rather than replace it. How might this alternative vision reshape democratic governance? Could cooperative AI become a tool for democratic renewal rather than democratic erosion?

Professor Danielle Allen: I appreciate that question. What really matters here is that we sometimes think the way technology is currently unfolding is somehow a matter of the laws of nature or the laws of physics—that it’s simply a natural outgrowth of nature itself. That’s a mistake, and it already gives away too much power. Technology always develops out of some kind of moral vision. By moral vision, I mean a way of understanding human beings, human capacity, and the human relationship to nature and the world.

The argument of that paper is that the moral vision behind the current technological supernova rests on a flawed premise. That premise is that there is one thing called human intelligence, that it is singular, and that machines are trying to replicate and ultimately overcome it. Whereas, in fact, human intelligence is multiple. It comes in a whole range of varieties. Machine intelligence is also multiple. That plurality of our intelligences is valuable to specific societies and to humankind as a whole.

Plurality can be activated for tribalism, conflict, and division, or it can be activated for creativity, innovation, and cultural richness. One of the most important human projects, therefore, is to give ourselves the tools to activate the plurality of our intelligences for those positive outcomes.

If you begin with that basic vision of human beings and human well-being, then you can see a completely different approach to technological development. It is an approach based on activating that plurality in a positive way, one that requires complementing human intelligences rather than trying to overcome or replace them.

Very ordinary technologies, like the Zoom technology we’re using right now, provide a good example. Zoom complements what human beings can do. We can’t see across thousands of miles, so being able to do that through Zoom supplements what we are already able to do. It doesn’t actually replace anything we were previously doing. So, one can begin to envision a host of things that would be wonderful to be able to do that are all supplemental rather than replacing our core capacities.

We Need a Formally Articulated Bill of Rights Against the Powers of AI

Authoritarian governments increasingly combine sophisticated digital surveillance with artificial intelligence, while democratic governments are also rapidly adopting AI for policing, border control, and public administration. How can constitutional democracies harness AI’s administrative potential without gradually normalizing technologies of surveillance and executive concentration that undermine liberal constitutionalism?

Professor Danielle Allen: That’s a great question. I think we’re at a point where we need a formally articulated bill of rights against the powers of AI. In the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, as nation-states were consolidating their power, people articulated bills of rights. In the US case, we have the first ten amendments to the Constitution: rights to association, rights to expression, freedom from search and seizure without warrants, rights to trial by jury, and so forth.

All of those rights apply to the AI universe, but it is worth taking the time to elaborate on what is required to ensure that they are protected under the surveillance conditions made possible by AI. That’s a project for legal scholars—to spell out, at meaningful length, what those requirements are.

I do think the GDPR was a good model for extending those rights protections into the environment of digital data and the like. We need to keep building that edifice of crystal-clear legal protections and limitations. Again, some of the lawsuits right now against Anthropic and others, for example, for stealing authors’ works, are really important. We already have this rights-based framework, and with more investment of time and effort, we could use it much more comprehensively to cover the world of generative AI.

Generative AI Is Going to Accelerate the Capacity of Everything

AI
Photo: Dreamstime.

Recent years have witnessed growing interaction between transnational populist movements, digital platforms, and algorithmically amplified political narratives. Do you believe generative AI is likely to accelerate the emergence of increasingly coordinated transnational populist ecosystems that operate beyond the regulatory capacity of individual democratic states?

Professor Danielle Allen: Generative AI is going to accelerate the capacity of everything. It will also accelerate the capacity of pro-democracy transnational networks to operate across borders. In that regard, it only changes the balance of power if only the populists use it.

The First Thing We Need Is Functional Democratic Governance

Much current AI regulation emphasizes safety, content moderation, transparency, and risk mitigation. Yet your work argues that these approaches address symptoms rather than underlying distributions of power. What institutional reforms would be necessary if democratic governments were to regulate AI according to constitutional principles instead of primarily technological ones?

Professor Danielle Allen: The two major things we need in the US are to get rid of corruption and restore suffrage. We have experienced an incredible erosion of voting rights in the US. Those two things—corruption, by which I mean the impact of money in our politics, and the erosion of voting rights—mean that our institutions have been captured by small oligarchic minorities pursuing their own financial interests through cronyist arrangements with tech companies.

So, when people ask that question, what they’re often wondering is, “Okay, what’s the specific regulation that you need to rein in a tech company?” What I want to say is that that’s actually operating at the wrong level. The first thing you need is functional democratic governance, where power actually lies with the people. Then the people will be able to apply regulations to tech companies. 

We can devise all kinds of regulations—that’s not really the problem. The problem is whether power actually lies with the people or with the people who are in bed with the tech companies. Right now, it lies with people who are in bed with tech companies. That’s why we need fundamental reforms in the basic operations of democracy in the US to change that balance of power.

Digital Competence Matters More Than Digital Literacy

Your broader scholarship consistently emphasizes citizenship, civic identity, democratic participation, and shared constitutional purpose. In an era increasingly mediated by AI-generated information, how should democratic education evolve to prepare citizens not merely to detect misinformation but to sustain democratic judgment itself?

Professor Danielle Allen: That’s a great question. There are a lot of important pieces there. I think highly of the work of Audrey Tong in Taiwan, who argues for an education in digital competence, not just digital literacy but competence. Again, if you know how to use the tools, you’re going to inoculate yourself against being abused by people who are using them.

So that’s one thing. But, to your point about judgment, cultivating the capacity for judgment is key. That means being able to—and here I’m drawing on some work by somebody named Scott Warren—to provide accurate accounts of what people who disagree with you think and why they think it. In other words, you have to train yourself out of your own silo in order to gain access to the full picture of what people are experiencing. One way to do that is by testing whether or not you can render the best version of your opponent’s argument. That’s a very basic skill, but it is no longer very common in our systems of instruction and education.

The work of judgment also requires understanding how to relate values and principles to empirical realities. To develop those skills, you actually have to spend time thinking about values. What are your values? Where do they come from? What are their sources? How do you justify them? What are other people’s values? How do they interact with each other? The work of connecting a values-based diagnosis to a values-based solution is also a learnable skill. So, those would be three things that I would point to as important to have inside our educational offerings.

We Should Deploy Technology to Elevate Human Judgment

Finally, stepping back from current technological developments, do you believe liberal democracy is entering a constitutional transformation comparable to those produced by the printing press, industrialization, or mass broadcasting? Looking ahead, what institutional innovations will be most essential if democratic societies are to ensure that artificial intelligence strengthens rather than weakens constitutional government, political equality, and democratic self-rule?

Professor Danielle Allen: Yes, I do think we are entering another period of major constitutional transformation of that kind. I wish I could give you a list of specific changes that will help us get where we want to go, but fundamentally, we need changes that strengthen human judgment. That runs a bit against the current at a moment when so much is eroding and replacing human judgment. That’s why I advocate various election system reforms in the US, because they would strengthen human judgment.

I also think there are many ways of deploying technology to elevate human judgment rather than denigrate it. AI sensemaking tools such as Polis and vTaiwan, which are deliberative democracy tools, use natural language to allow people to express themselves in their own words, while helping to bring the themes that people have generated to the surface and making us more visible to one another. Things like this can actually help strengthen human judgment.

The hard question, which I appreciate you’re asking, is this: How do we evaluate whether a technology is strengthening human judgment or weakening it? That seems to me to be one of the criteria we need to bake into our assessments of new models, new tools, and the other technologies that emerge into the world.

Climate Change, Bangladesh.

Why Environmental Displacement Is the Next Frontier in Populist Politics

As climate change increasingly reshapes patterns of human mobility, it is also transforming the political foundations of democratic citizenship. In this commentary, Dr. Oludele Solaja argues that climate-induced displacement should no longer be understood solely as a humanitarian emergency or a security challenge, but as an emerging battleground over political membership and democratic inclusion. Introducing the innovative concept of Climate Citizenship Populism, Dr. Solaja demonstrates how environmental displacement is becoming a powerful resource for exclusionary populist narratives that redefine who belongs within the democratic community. By bringing together scholarship on populism, climate mobility, and democratic citizenship, the commentary offers an original analytical framework for understanding how environmental change is reshaping contemporary political conflict and why the future of democracy will increasingly depend on how societies respond to the politics of climate-driven belonging.

By Dr. Oludele Solaja

Climate change has progressed from being an environmental issue into a central political issue in the 21st century. As the entire debate and politics concerning climate change revolved around the issues of temperature increase, carbon emission, and environmental damage, the effects of climate change do not just end there. It is transforming the patterns of human inhabitation, transforming the ways of life of people, and fundamentally changing the geographical bases on which our understanding of citizenship rests. As environmental factors drive humans away, democracies now face a crucial dilemma: Who belongs to a world changed by climate change?

This article situates climate migration at the nexus of debates surrounding democracy, citizenship and populism. While populism has been defined as the political logic that distinguishes between ‘the pure people’ and ‘the corrupt elite’ (Mudde, 2004; Mudde & Rovira Kaltwasser, 2017), it is also shaped by debates over the ‘people’ and its boundaries. Populist movements often exploit existing anxieties over economics, culture, immigration and national identity. But in a warming, changing world, climate change-induced movement of people creates a new domain for this struggle.

Climate migration has become a key tool for constructing the ‘people,’ defining who is deserving and legitimating claims to belonging.  Evidence for this transformation is widespread. The 2022 IPCC Report (2022) points to climate change as a major driver of increased human vulnerability due to weather extremes, ecosystem degradation and impacts on food and water. In recent years, the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) has documented that weather-related events cause the majority of new internal displacements worldwide. Nevertheless, climate-induced displacement cannot be understood in purely environmentalist terms but is a product of interactions among environmental changes, poverty, inequality, failures of governance, and armed conflict (Gemenne, 2011; McLeman, 2014). Therefore, climate migration reflects a broader set of unequal social and political relations that influence people’s ability to stay, adapt or leave their places of origin. The political debate on climate mobility, however, tends to remain framed within two dominant and limiting perspectives.

Firstly, it is widely regarded as a problem requiring a humanitarian response to protect vulnerable displaced people. Secondly, climate migrants are perceived as a threat to national security, welfare systems, labor markets, and cultural identity. Yet both approaches obscure a more profound transformation: climate migration is increasingly becoming a question of membership in the polity. The critical issue is not so much why people migrate as how existing political communities draw the boundaries of membership and belonging in the face of collapsing territorial stability. It is precisely within this terrain of uncertainty that populist politics appears particularly well positioned to thrive.

Populism is fundamentally concerned with issues of borders and political membership, often drawing on the divide between insiders and outsiders (Laclau, 2005; Müller, 2016). Climate-induced displacement offers a rich symbolic site for these populist efforts, since it is deeply entangled with concerns over the sovereignty of the nation-state, the administration of borders, the distribution of public goods, and the management of national culture. Climate migrants can thus be politically reframed not simply as dispossessed people, but as symbols of wider fears about social and political disorder.

Introducing Climate Citizenship Populism

To describe this new political tendency, this commentary introduces the term Climate Citizenship Populism. It is a variant of populism that uses environmental displacement to redraw the lines of democratic membership by defining climate migrants as a threat to the rights, resources, identity and sovereignty of a national community.

Climate Citizenship Populism is not like previous forms of political conflict over the climate, where the conflict might have been over whether climate change is occurring or over opposition to regulating it. It is based on the assumption of environmental disruption, but it is the social consequences that are politicized. Thus, the central conflict changes from a question of climate change to one of who pays the repercussions of climate change and who deserves political representation in a climate-changed world.

This analysis makes a helpful contribution to the current debate on populism in three significant ways. First, it sees climate-induced mobility as a new material trigger for populist mobilization, alongside the more commonly suggested economic insecurity, immigration, and cultural backlash. Second, it suggests that the focus of populist opposition has moved from immigration to democracy itself as the political nature of citizenship is transformed by environmental change. Third, it presents a new analytical framework—Climate Citizenship Populism—to make sense of the conversion of environmental displacement into exclusionary narratives of democratic citizenship.

The idea is to connect three lines of research that have been pursued independently so far: populism studies, climate mobility research and democratic citizenship theory. While existing studies have already provided interesting findings on adaptation and displacement, as well as on citizenship and territorial belonging, there is a lack of literature on climate migration and the governance of migration. The current body of research has shed light on migration and the governance of migration, adaptation and displacement, as well as on the relationship between territorial belonging and citizenship and rights, but there is a dearth of research on climate migration and the governance of migration. But there has been little effort to grasp how environmental displacement is influencing the political boundaries of citizenship through populist mobilization.

Climate Citizenship Populism thus draws attention to a more general shift in democratic politics. Climate change is not just an issue to be added to policy agendas but also a structural condition that alters the material and political conditions shaping societies’ notions of belonging. Populist players are now also trying to re-imagine the limits of the democratic community itself as patterns of human settlement are reconfigured amid environmental disruption. In the era of environmental disruption, patterns of human settlement are being redrawn, and populist actors are seeking to redefine the limits of the democratic community itself.

From Border Politics to Democratic Exclusion

Climate Citizenship Populism is not only possible politically; its reasoning can be seen in various regions. Whether it is a matter of humanitarianism or of political membership, sovereignty, and national belonging, a pattern is becoming increasingly recognizable: environmental displacement is increasingly understood as a political issue.

Climate mobility has increasingly been linked to broader European debates on immigration, border management, and national identity. Most contemporary migration movements are not solely a consequence of climate change, but the foreshadowing of future climate displacement has become a political issue. The incorporation of the theme of environmental mobility in more comprehensive narratives of demographic change, overburdened welfare states, housing crises and the failure of political elites to keep the nation together is becoming a hallmark of populist actors. In this sense, migrants are symbolic beings through which anxieties of globalization and social change are conveyed. It is not just the quantity, but the meaning associated with displacement in the stories of populism that has political dimensions.

These trends are also seen in North America, notably in political discussions about migration from climate-vulnerable Central America and the Caribbean. Studies have shown that economic insecurity, governance problems, and social vulnerability are interlinked with environmental pressures to shape migration decisions (McLeman, 2014; IOM, 2024). Political debates, however, tend to reduce such realities to a simple narrative about the border “crisis” and national insecurity. Climate displacement is integrated into a larger anti-immigration discourse, in which migrants serve as a symbol of the waning control of the state. Thus, environmental mobility becomes a political problem, ranging from global inequality to a perceived threat to national sovereignty.

Another facet of Climate Citizenship Populism is illustrated in the African context. In the Sahel and other affected areas of the Horn of Africa, there are growing incidences of internal, rather than trans-border, displacement driven by drought, desertification, flooding and resource pressures. These movements involve complex issues of land, livelihood, access to resources and political recognition. When resources are scarce, displaced people are sometimes portrayed as rivals for economic opportunities or public services, furthering narratives of territorial identity and belonging. In these settings, Climate Citizenship Populism does not appear as much as international border politics, but rather as a contestation over who is entitled to what land, resources, and community.

Perhaps the most profound challenge to conventional understandings of citizenship is provided by Small Island Developing States. Climate mobility raises more than just migration management questions, particularly for communities under existential threat from sea-level rise. Who, then, will be able to live on a land that is becoming uninhabitable, one where citizenship is organized? Climate displacement scholars have suggested that this type of event calls into question the notions of territorialized political membership (McAdam, 2012). They show how climate change is altering mobility patterns and destabilizing the sense of territory that underpins contemporary democratic citizenship.

Contributions to the study of Populism and Democratic Theory

Climate Citizenship Populism enriches the field of populism studies by introducing the idea that environmental disruptions should be considered a novel material condition of political mobilization. Previous scholarship has offered insightful accounts of populist politics as anti-elitism, cultural backlash, nationalism and immigration politics (Mudde & Rovira Kaltwasser, 2017; Moffitt, 2016). Climate Citizenship Populism is not an alternative to these explanations but an expansion of them, showing how political communities draw in their insiders/outsiders in the context of environmental instability.

This way of thinking takes the focus away from migration and towards citizenship. The classic discussions tend to revolve around whether migrants should be let in, kept safe, or kept out. Climate Citizenship Populism uncovers a more fundamental issue: What is the nature of democratic citizenship in an era when climate change is emerging as a primary factor in determining who can and cannot live? In this respect, climate migration is not just an issue for migration governance – it is an issue for the normative basis of democracy.

The idea also emphasizes the issue of climate justice. The concept of climate mobility is defined by deep global inequalities, including unequal historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions and unequal ability to adapt to climate change (Caney, 2010; Shue, 2014). Responses to climate migration which exclude are likely to become new forms of democratic exclusion, building on the history of unequal climate impacts. There is a need for effective adaptation and migration policies and political frameworks that acknowledge shared vulnerability and differentiated responsibilities in the context of climate mobility.

Conclusion: Citizenship in a Climate-Changed World

Climate crises have become an essential part of the democratic political landscape. Along with the changing landscape of environmental mobility, environmental disruption is also changing the political questions of belonging, rights and membership. The question for democracies is not only how to deal with climate migration, but also how to maintain democratic inclusion in a world where territorial stability is no longer guaranteed.

Climate Citizenship Populism offers a framework for understanding how environmental displacement is becoming integral to current political identity and conflicts over democratic boundaries. It shows that climate change is not only adding to migration pressures, but also to political opportunities to draw lines about who is in and who is out. What this means is important. What populism is all about is the building of “the people”—and in the future, climate change will be a major factor in the picture of “the people. Debating emissions, adaptation, and environmental governance will thus be a part of the politics of the climate age, but so too will be debates over citizenship itself.

Class, industrialization and social redistribution were significant issues of the twentieth century. The first decade of the twenty-first century has seen globalization, migration and national identity come into conflict. Climate citizenship is likely to become a recurring battle in the next decades. Democracies are now at a pivotal point where they must decide whether climate insecurity strengthens their pursuit of exclusion or provides a moment to reconsider political belonging on the basis of ideas of justice, solidarity and shared fragility.

The future of democracy in a climate-changed world will ultimately depend not only on how societies respond to environmental transformation, but on how they answer the most basic political question of all: who belongs?


 

References

Benhabib, S. (2004). The Rights of Others: Aliens, Residents, and Citizens. Cambridge University Press.

Caney, S. (2010). “Climate change and the duties of the advantaged.” Critical Review of International Social and Political Philosophy, 13(1), 203–228.

Gemenne, F. (2011). “Why the numbers don’t add up: A review of estimates and predictions of people displaced by environmental changes.” Global Environmental Change, 21(S1), S41–S49.

Gemenne, F. (2015). “One good reason to speak of ‘climate refugees’.” Forced Migration Review, 49, 70–71.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press.

Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. (2024). Global Report on Internal Displacement 2024. IDMC.

International Organization for Migration. (2024). World Migration Report 2024. IOM.

Laclau, E. (2005). On Populist Reason. Verso.

Marshall, T. H. (1950). Citizenship and Social Class and Other Essays. Cambridge University Press.

McAdam, J. (2012). Climate Change, Forced Migration, and International Law. Oxford University Press.

McLeman, R. (2014). Climate and Human Migration: Past Experiences, Future Challenges. Cambridge University Press.

Moffitt, B. (2016). The Global Rise of Populism: Performance, Political Style, and Representation. Stanford University Press.

Mudde, C. (2004). “The populist zeitgeist.” Government and Opposition, 39(4), 541–563.

Mudde, C. & Rovira Kaltwasser, C. (2017). Populism: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press.

Müller, J.-W. (2016). What Is Populism? University of Pennsylvania Press.

Shue, H. (2014). Climate Justice: Vulnerability and Protection. Oxford University Press.

Dr. Hanna Folsz.

Dr. Folsz: Even Deeply Entrenched Competitive Authoritarian Regimes Have Vulnerabilities

For years, Hungary stood as the defining case of democratic backsliding within the European Union. Yet the 2026 election has transformed it into an equally important case of democratic recovery. In this timely interview, Dr. Hanna Folsz discusses why Hungary’s political transformation challenges prevailing assumptions about the durability of competitive authoritarianism. Drawing on her recent Journal of Democracy article, she argues that authoritarian institutional engineering ultimately remains vulnerable when broad civic mobilization, credible political leadership, and innovative opposition strategies converge. The conversation explores the underestimated role of civil society, the limits of media capture and economic coercion, the challenges of rebuilding democratic institutions, and the broader lessons Hungary offers for scholars and practitioners seeking to understand democratic resilience and authoritarian reversal in the twenty-first century.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

For more than a decade, Hungary occupied a unique place in the comparative study of democratic backsliding. Under Viktor Orbán and Fidesz, it became widely regarded as the paradigmatic example of competitive authoritarianism within the European Union—a political system in which elections continued to exist but were increasingly distorted by constitutional engineering, media capture, economic coercion, and the systematic weakening of institutional checks and balances. Consequently, Hungary became not merely a national case but an international reference point for understanding how democracies erode from within.

Yet Hungary’s 2026 election has fundamentally altered that conversation. The defeat of Fidesz after sixteen years in power has transformed the country into one of the most consequential contemporary cases of democratic recovery. In her recent Journal of Democracy article, How Civil Society Defeated OrbánDr. Hanna Folsz —an Academy Scholar at Harvard University’s Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, where she will begin her appointment in August 2026 before joining IE University in Madrid as Assistant Professor of Political Science in 2027— argues that this democratic breakthrough cannot be explained solely by leadership change or electoral dynamics. Instead, she offers a broader theoretical argument about the hidden vulnerabilities of competitive authoritarian regimes and the underestimated capacity of civil society to reverse authoritarian consolidation.

As Dr. Folsz observes, “Even deeply entrenched competitive authoritarian regimes have vulnerabilities.” While Hungary experienced what she describes as “one of the most extensive and severe episodes of de-democratization or authoritarian consolidation in recent decades,” the very institutions and strategies that sustained Fidesz ultimately proved insufficient to guarantee permanent rule. Institutional engineering, media dominance, financial asymmetries, and intimidation undoubtedly raised the costs of political competition, yet they could not indefinitely substitute for declining public legitimacy. As she argues, “these authoritarian strategies do not guarantee lasting—everlasting—popularity or staying in office.”

A central contribution of Dr. Folsz’s research is her reassessment of the role of civil society. Rather than attributing the opposition’s victory primarily to the emergence of the Tisza Party or the leadership of Péter Magyar, she demonstrates how more than 2,500 decentralized “Tisza Islands” transformed latent civic capacity into effective political organization. In her words, “The role of civil society… is absolutely underestimated,” while “broad civic mobilization, new and fresh opposition challengers… and a credible alternative to voters are definitely a path to democratic reversal.”

In this interview, Dr. Folsz examines the mechanisms that enabled Hungary’s democratic breakthrough and explores their broader implications for comparative politics. She discusses the hidden effects of economic coercion, the limits of media capture, the importance of credible political leadership, and the challenges of democratic restoration after authoritarian rule. She also reflects on the responsibilities facing Hungary’s new government, emphasizing that electoral victory is only the beginning: “Changing governments is definitely only a precondition for democratic recovery.” Together, these insights offer an important contribution to ongoing debates on populism, democratic resilience, competitive authoritarianism, and the conditions under which entrenched illiberal regimes can ultimately be defeated.

Here is the revised version of our interview with Dr. Hanna Folsz, edited lightly to enhance clarity, readability, and overall flow for publication.

Authoritarian Strategies Do Not Guarantee Permanent Rule

Hungarian government’s anti-immigration billboard says “STOP the refugees” in Budapest, Hungary on April 4, 2018.

Dr. Folsz, welcome! Let me begin with our first question. For more than a decade, Hungary was widely regarded as the paradigmatic case of democratic backsliding and competitive authoritarianism. Yet your recent Journal of Democracy article argues that the 2026 election also represents one of the most significant democratic reversals of authoritarian consolidation in recent years. How should we interpret the Hungarian election in comparative perspective? Does it represent an exceptional case, or does it reveal broader vulnerabilities inherent in contemporary competitive authoritarian regimes?

Dr. Hanna Folsz: The Hungarian case represents a combination of factors that disadvantage opposition parties or make opposition electoral victory exceedingly difficult. It is definitely an example of—maybe one of the most extensive and severe episodes of de-democratization or authoritarian consolidation in recent decades. Nevertheless, the Hungarian case also represents many of the common factors, or common difficulties, that oppositions experience and the strategies that aspiring authoritarians employ to entrench their rule.

No wonder Hungary serves as a preliminary case, an example for aspiring autocrats worldwide. Fidesz’s dominance in the media, the extensive financial advantage that it enjoyed—or made sure it enjoyed—compared to opposition parties and independent civil society, the severe disadvantages faced by the opposition in the electoral system, as well as the fear of opposition participation due to the repercussions, are all factors that are present in other cases as well.

It was the length of Fidesz rule that made these impediments especially significant, but it also showed that these authoritarian strategies do not guarantee lasting—everlasting—popularity or staying in office. And the lessons it offers are a set of lessons for other cases. Of course, these have to be adapted to context, but the Hungarian case shows that there are vulnerabilities to be exploited, that broad civic mobilization, new and fresh opposition challengers who understand the regime and its vulnerabilities and exploit them, and who present a credible alternative to voters, are definitely a path to democratic reversal. But I’m excited to delve more into the details of this throughout this interview.

The Role of Civil Society in Democratic Change Has Been Profoundly Underestimated

One of your central arguments is that the decisive innovation was not simply the emergence of the Tisza Party, but the rapid development of the decentralized network of Tisza Islands. Why were these semi-autonomous civic organizations able to succeed where traditional opposition parties repeatedly failed? More broadly, does this suggest that democratic resistance in authoritarian settings increasingly depends on civil society rather than party organizations?

Dr. Hanna Folsz: In my article, I make the argument that existing commentary and interpretations of the opposition’s recent electoral victory in Hungary pay a lot of attention to the emergence of the Tisza Party and its novelty, the charisma and skills of its leader, as well as the broader discontent with Fidesz rule after many years of economic stagnation that, in part, could be accounted for by the suspension of EU funds, as well as by extreme corruption and authoritarian overreach by Fidesz.

I argue that this is not the full story. To understand the opposition’s victory, we must take into account the extensive and unprecedented civic mobilization that occurred in Hungary around this election. In my article, I show that Tisza Islands—these semi-autonomous civic groups, small civic groups of at most 50 participants each—emerged across the country. Over 2,500 of these existed by the election. Within a span of a year and a half, they came to dominate civic and public life in Hungary.

They played an essential role in structuring political life, providing political information in their communities, and demonstrating the credibility of the party and the opposition as an alternative through highly visible activities, including extensive volunteering and local charity work that showed the opposition movement cared about the experiences and difficulties of everyday Hungarians. They also provided, basically, the campaign infrastructure for the Tisza Party throughout the election.

The party had very little money, very limited financial resources, in large part due to Fidesz’s actions and changes to party funding, as well as simply being a very new party. This meant that it did not have the resources for the kind of classic electoral campaign that we expect from political parties in democracies most of the time—one funded by donations or state funds, especially in Europe, and relying on an extensive party infrastructure, local offices, and so on. Instead, these Islands stepped up. They basically provided the campaign activists and even the financial resources for the campaign. That played an absolutely crucial role in Tisza’s eventual victory.

What this shows is that there are specific vulnerabilities, difficulties, and challenges for opposition parties in autocratizing and competitive authoritarian contexts. These include financial disadvantage, an absolute information disadvantage under an incumbent-controlled media infrastructure, and the total—or almost total—de-mobilization of the activist base and opposition voters who have become disillusioned with politics and opposition parties. This was definitely the situation Hungary found itself in in 2026, and it showed that the usual avenues for political change were no longer possible.

This is when we saw the very innovative collaboration between the Tisza Party and civil society through the Tisza Islands—these semi-autonomous groups that were only loosely connected to the party. This points to the fact that the role of civil society, the role we expect civil society to play, is absolutely underestimated. Parties will still be crucial, but we need to think about these innovative solutions and about how the strengths of civil society, the often-latent strengths of civil society, can be channeled into electoral competition.

Changing Governments Is Only a Precondition for Democratic Recovery

Tisza leader Péter Magyar
Tisza leader Péter Magyar begins a symbolic “one million steps” march to Nagyvárad, Romania, addressing reporters with supporters in Budapest, Hungary on May 14, 2025. Photo: Istvan Balogh / Dreamstime.

For sixteen years, Viktor Orbán systematically weakened constitutional constraints, reshaped electoral institutions, captured much of the media, and subordinated state institutions to partisan control. Which of these legacies do you regard as the most difficult to reverse? Is democratic recovery primarily about changing governments, or about rebuilding institutions that have been deliberately hollowed out?

Dr. Hanna Folsz: Changing governments is definitely only a precondition for democratic recovery. Democratic recovery cannot be achieved without rebuilding resilient democratic institutions and norms. And this is where the main challenge in Hungary lies today.

In Hungarian case, Fidesz was voted out of office. The electoral threat that Fidesz currently represents to the Tisza Party is very low. So, it seems that we do not have to be extensively afraid of Fidesz returning to power in four years. The bigger challenge, rather, is for the Tisza Party to effectively restore democratic institutions and norms while exercising self-restraint in the process.

We have seen them begin to address this challenge very early on with a great deal of energy, which has been very encouraging for many commentators and observers. Their first constitutional amendment was recently passed. They are taking steps to remove the previous president and are also beginning to hold Fidesz-affiliated elites accountable through judicial proceedings and investigations into corruption and other authoritarian transgressions.

We also know that they will begin the constitutional process of writing a new constitution. There is also a new head of the state media who has already been appointed to oversee the transition to a more pluralistic and more independent media environment.

The biggest challenge is to make sure that there are professional and lastingly independent checks and balances across all of these spheres. Tisza has an unprecedented mandate because it achieved a two-thirds parliamentary majority in the election. That means it can amend the constitution. There are basically very few, if any, institutional restraints on how it exercises its power.

So, what we want to see is that, across all these spheres—the judiciary, the media, and state institutions—they install not necessarily party loyalists but rather truly independent actors, and that they respect their independence and decisions, even when those decisions go counter to Tisza’s goals or electoral preferences in terms of ensuring its electoral support.

Hungary Shows That Pro-Democracy Civic Energy Is Easier to Mobilize Than We Assumed

Your research highlights the importance of latent civic capacity that survives even under prolonged authoritarian pressure. What does Hungary teach us about democratic resilience? Can civil society preserve democratic norms even when formal institutions have been substantially weakened?

Dr. Hanna Folsz: The Hungarian case definitely shows me, in a striking way, that civic capacity is latent rather than absent in cases such as Hungary. This is something I highlight in my article as well, because we have a very strong assumption in political science research and in public debates about democratic resilience and resistance to authoritarian pressure.

The assumption is that if we have an institutionally weak civil society, then effective democratic resistance is very difficult. It’s sort of a precondition for democratic resistance that there are existing civil society actors that can serve as a check, hold the government accountable, organize resistance, organize protests, and restructure public opinion around resistance. When this is missing, we assume that democratic reversals are much more difficult.

They are indeed more difficult. But the Hungarian case absolutely shows that it is much easier to bring pro-democracy civic capacity to the surface than we assumed. In Hungary, the Tisza Islands provided a loose organizational frame, and the Tisza Party provided the Tisza Islands with a purpose and a potential for democratic change that mobilized the population across the country, in localities and municipalities both big and small.

This points to a case for some positivity, some optimism, as well as a call for innovative approaches and a better understanding of citizens’ motivations, because political scientists, as well as pundits, assumed that such mobilization would not be possible and were taken by surprise by its scale and effectiveness.

If we take the opportunity and make the effort to talk to citizens more, understand their relationship with this regime, and recognize that there is this latent discontent that may not be expressed for fear of repercussions, but also because of a lack of hope that things could change, and if we can understand how citizens react to the provision of a credible alternative, to hope embodied in an opposition movement, then this might not take us by surprise. We might instead focus a little more on developing these innovative civic approaches in our attempts to achieve democratic reversals.

Economic Coercion Is One of the Most Overlooked Tools of Authoritarian Control

Former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

In your broader research, you argue that economic retaliation constitutes one of the most overlooked mechanisms through which aspiring autocrats weaken political competition by deterring talented opposition candidates. How central was economic coercion to Orbán’s durability, and how much did overcoming fear of retaliation contribute to the opposition’s eventual breakthrough?

Dr. Hanna Folsz: One of the focuses of my research is the authoritarian strategy that I term economic coercion. I argue in one of my papers that this is a core strategy of authoritarian consolidation and control that we tend to overlook because we focus on the physical acts of repression that these regimes carry out, be it arresting opposition politicians and activists or banning opposition parties, et cetera.

But economic coercion is another crucial strategy. I define it as a credible threat of economic retaliation for opposition political activity. This means that not just opposition candidates, but activists or those who express public support for the opposition, they themselves or their family members, might face economic difficulties as a result.

Its employment-oriented form—one of its forms—carries the potential for employment loss, dismissals from jobs in the public sector, the state sector, or in regime-adjacent businesses. Its enterprise-oriented form focuses on retaliation against business owners and firms. If you participate in opposition politics, for instance as a candidate, or if you participated in Hungary during the Orbán period, you could very well expect that your firm would be subject to targeted tax audits, targeted tax penalties, or other forms of retaliation—basically, the denial of state contracts and grants that your firm might have previously received, as well as the turning away of suppliers and other businesses that were themselves afraid of retaliation for their association with the opposition.

This was an absolutely pervasive, indeed a defining, characteristic of the Hungarian regime and a major impediment for opposition parties. My interviews with opposition politicians, together with a survey that I conducted among opposition local politicians, pointed to this pervasive fear of retaliation and Fidesz’s media dominance as the two central reasons opposition politicians identified for their parties’—or their political side’s—weakness.

There are many examples of this. I talked to a number of opposition politicians who themselves were fired from their jobs. Or, for instance, if they had a partner who was a teacher, that partner was fired, and their businesses suffered extensive retaliation. But I also heard many stories of opposition activists being too afraid to put their face, appear in photos—for fear that they would face retaliation, to register as an activist for the party, or even to become a party member.

There are countless examples that opposition politicians would tell me. They would set up stalls for campaigns or for collecting signatures for different causes, and even acquaintances whom they knew very well in their private lives would be too afraid to look at them while they were out on the streets, for fear that their employer or their neighbor might see them, and that word would then spread through their social circle that they supported the opposition.

This presented a huge difficulty for parties, both in mobilizing activists for strong campaigns and in finding good candidates for electoral office. The Tisza Party actually faced many of these same challenges.

Conversations with lawyers at the Hungarian Helsinki Committee, one of the main civil liberties protection organizations in Hungary, revealed that the number of cases of retaliatory firings, or proprietary retaliatory actions, that they encountered and were approached with actually increased significantly in the years following the emergence of the Tisza Party. My conversations and interviews with Tisza politicians themselves also revealed a staggering rate of such retaliation among their activist bases.

The way they overcame this is very remarkable and offers many important lessons. One of the most important strategies they employed was the Tisza Islands themselves, which provided a very low-visibility form of activism. Many activists I talked to in these Tisza Islands told me that they and their fellow activists could choose the level and form of activism they were comfortable with, depending on the degree of visibility. The lack of overt—or direct—association with the party also allowed them to evade some of the strongest retaliatory actions that we had previously come across.

Another important way in which the Tisza Islands contributed to mitigating the effects of retaliation was simply by affording the opposition greater visibility. This provided examples of courage and also evidence of the scale of retaliation, because fear of it often outstrips its actual occurrence.

Finally, Tisza started polling above Fidesz roughly a year and a half before the election, which was also very important because fear of economic retaliation operates on an assumption of future enforcement. If the opposition begins polling ahead of the governing party for such an extended period of time, there is at least some expectation that the governing party may lose the election, in which case retaliation will not proceed, or that any retaliation opposition activists or politicians experience will be undone once the new party comes to power.

This was crucial in progressively encouraging participation and lending confidence to the opposition. But it remained a formidable impediment, and it required a great deal of courage from all of the opposition activists I spoke to, as well as from the politicians of the Tisza Party, to stand publicly with the opposition in the way that they did. That is absolutely one of the most commendable actions one could undertake in such a political environment.

When Propaganda Collides with Lived Experience, Its Credibility Begins to Collapse

Fidesz, Soros.
Poster from political party Fidesz showing the opponents of Hungarian PM Viktor Orban surrounding billionaire philanthropist George Soros, Budapest, April 8, 2017.

Hungary has often been cited as perhaps Europe’s most advanced example of media capture. Yet despite overwhelming informational asymmetries, the opposition ultimately managed to reach voters. Does this suggest that grassroots civic networks can compensate for authoritarian control of traditional media, or were there broader structural changes—including digital communication—that weakened the effectiveness of media capture?

Dr. Hanna Folsz: These grassroots civic networks played a very important role. There was an almost total lack of access to independent news in many parts of the country, predominantly outside of the larger cities. Almost all news sources were controlled by Fidesz by 2024, around the time of the emergence of the Tisza Party. One of the especially important early functions of the Tisza Islands was simply to provide public spaces for these new, alternative information environments where politics could be discussed.

During their first few months, many of these Tisza Islands focused primarily on inviting outside speakers or holding public discussions, talks with experts, and conversations among activists about the political situation. They identified the most important local issues and explored how Fidesz’s wrongdoing, corruption, authoritarian actions, and mismanagement of the economy and public resources contributed crucially to the local problems and difficulties Hungarians were facing. Through these speaker series, the Tisza Islands allowed people to connect the dots between their local experiences and the broader authoritarian encroachment and entrenchment of Fidesz in the country.

Having these communities in which to discuss politics was also something very new. Many of the activists I interviewed noted that this was the first time they could speak openly about politics without fear and simply discuss political developments among themselves. It created a much better shared understanding of the political situation in the country.

Nevertheless, there were three other factors that were also crucial. Beyond the emergence of these Islands and these local information spaces, the growing importance of the digital sphere was absolutely significant, as was the increasing conflict between people’s personal experiences, their economic hardships, and Fidesz’s narrative of its own successes.

In terms of the digital sphere and social media, we could see by the early 2020s, especially after the COVID pandemic, a very important shift in the way online and non-traditional news sources gained ground. YouTube, podcasts, and other social media platforms became very important sources of news in Hungary. Partizán is one of these networks—the largest podcast and YouTube network for independent news in Hungary. Its videos routinely achieved hundreds of thousands of views in a country of fewer than 10 million people. That’s very significant.

Another important way in which the rise of the digital sphere mattered was how Péter Magyar, current prime minister and the leader of the Tisza Party, exploited and leveraged it masterfully to gain popularity. His campaigns and political activities were always online. We heard from many commentators throughout the election how important it was that Péter Magyar travelled across the country, visiting Hungarian towns and villages, both large and small, after entering Hungarian politics. For two years, he was almost constantly on the ground talking to Hungarian voters.

One of the most important aspects of this, however, was that every single one of his appearances was livestreamed on his social media platforms. This created an almost constant connection with Hungarian voters, made possible by the rise of social media in politics. It further enhanced his credibility by demonstrating how hard he was working and strengthened his direct connection with voters.

Finally, another important reason why Fidesz’s media dominance—and its effectiveness—began to weaken was the increasingly apparent conflict between Hungarians’ lived experiences and Fidesz’s official narrative. Beginning in the early 2020s, and especially after 2022, Hungary experienced significant economic stagnation and record inflation. Inflation averaged around 20 percent in 2022 and remained at a similarly high, though somewhat lower, level in 2023. Food price inflation was particularly severe.

When Hungarians experienced firsthand that they could afford much less than in previous years, while Fidesz continued to emphasize its achievements and the support it was providing through its distributive programmes, this sharply contradicted people’s lived experiences. As a result, the credibility of Fidesz’s propagandistic narrative in the media outlets it controlled declined substantially, and Hungarians increasingly began seeking out alternative sources of news.

Opposition Strategy Matters Just as Much as Authoritarian Strategy

Orbán’s governments demonstrated remarkable sophistication in redesigning electoral rules, constitutional institutions, and oversight bodies without formally abandoning electoral competition. Does Hungary demonstrate that authoritarian institutional engineering eventually reaches diminishing returns, particularly when legitimacy begins to erode?

Dr. Hanna Folsz: Definitely. What the Hungarian case points to with respect to this question is simply that competitive authoritarian regimes still rely on popularity to persist. So, however much electoral rules are redesigned, institutions are amended, and oversight bodies are captured, if unpopularity starts to emerge, if the regime loses its credibility and legitimacy—especially its performance legitimacy—then these institutional changes cannot guarantee that it stays in power.

Nevertheless, there are important caveats. First, the Fidesz regime employed limited physical repression and party bans. That is something we are starting to see in cases such as Turkey, which does not have the constraints of the EU and has shown a willingness to use these tools against the opposition. This can represent much more significant constraints and make it much more difficult for the regime’s unpopularity to translate into electoral change and opposition victory.

The other important caveat is that opposition strategy does matter. Having a broad-appeal electoral strategy and offering a credible alternative that promises competent governance in the interests of the Hungarian people—and can credibly deliver on that promise—is crucial if these governing parties are to start losing elections or even come close to losing them.

Looking, for instance, at the 2022 election in Hungary, where Fidesz actually achieved its strongest performance under its rule, even though the election took place amid record inflation, economic stagnation, extreme corruption, and authoritarian overreach, shows that voters rejected the opposition alternative. There were plenty of reasons to dislike the regime, plenty of reasons to want change, but that change simply did not materialize through the opposition.

Performance Legitimacy Mattered Even More Than Ethno-populist Appeals

Orbán has frequently been analyzed as one of the architects of contemporary right-wing populism, combining majoritarian rhetoric with illiberal constitutionalism. Looking back, to what extent was Fidesz’s success primarily rooted in populism, and to what extent did it evolve into a more conventional authoritarian patronage regime whose survival depended increasingly on state control rather than popular mobilization?

Dr. Hanna Folsz: Fidesz’s populism was important to its staying in power and its ability to consolidate its rule, but it was by far not the only factor that mattered. If anything, performance legitimacy in voters’ eyes was even more important than the populist, ethno-populist appeals that we saw, especially in the second half of Fidesz’s rule.

In terms of Fidesz’s populism, we could definitely see that these radical-right nationalist ethno-populist appeals became very prevalent, especially in the second half of the 2010s. We saw this when immigration became the cornerstone issue for Fidesz, and when this sort of anti-immigration rhetoric became a very powerful tool that allowed it to win the 2018 election with resounding popularity.

But even then, Fidesz’s distributive programs were crucial. A very important element was this kind of regime-to-voter patronage—not just giving resources to a small elite but also providing financial benefits directly to voters so that they saw a financial benefit in their own pockets from supporting the regime. This was very important, and Fidesz very consciously leveraged these strategies.

We saw that when these strategies failed, when the economic gains that people felt they had experienced under Fidesz rule disappeared, Fidesz became less popular. Its deployment of nationalism, its use of this outside-threat narrative, this classic populist narrative, was not enough to ensure that it stayed in power and continued to mobilize its base.

In sum, the transformation of the economy to ensure Fidesz’s continuity in power was very important. These distributive programs directed at voters were crucial. Of course, part of that also involved establishing a political elite, an economic elite that gave Fidesz its economic base—this sort of oligarchic network that supported its control over the media and made sure that economically independent opposition actors had a very difficult time gaining ground.

Those factors were important as well. But populism is just not enough of an explanation.

Hope for Change Required a Credible Political Entrepreneur

Peter Magyar, a popular opposition politician of celebrity status meeting the press at the site of a soccer arena and miniature train station in Viktor Orban’s village in Felcsut, Hungary. on May 24, 2024. Photo: Blue Corner Studio.

Your article emphasizes that civic mobilization required not only existing social networks but also what might be called a credible political entrepreneur in Péter Magyar. How important is leadership in activating dormant democratic capacities? Could similar civic energy have emerged without a figure capable of coordinating and legitimizing it?

Dr. Hanna Folsz: Coordination and the hope of change were absolutely essential to the civic energy that we saw in Hungary, and they had to come from a credible source. They had to come from a credible political entrepreneur or group that promised this. It did not necessarily have to be Péter Magyar, but he is a highly politically skilled politician. He was able to recognize these opportunities, as well as the vulnerabilities of the regime. This was very important in activating the civic energy in the country.

One of the preconditions is simply that there has to be a vision for political change. I think what Péter Magyar did right, why he was important, and why he was able to do this was the energy that voters saw in him as he travelled around the country on his nationwide tours, day after day, rally after rally, meeting after meeting, demonstrating that he took this seriously and that he was able to connect with people. Hearing him speak, hearing him identify the problems with the regime, and also hearing him present some possible solutions was also important.

A strong performance in the 2024 European Parliament election also gave him and his party the ability to have voters’ expectations, or hopes for change, coalesce around them. That was crucial. He emerged at the right time, when there was very strong dissatisfaction with Fidesz but no opposition alternative or opposition option that voters really saw, and he had the skills to fill that role.

But it could have been someone else. It’s obviously very hard to know. What is crucial, however, is the coordinating and legitimizing role that a political entrepreneur provides.

Innovative Civic Mobilization May Be More Transferable Than Hungary’s Institutions

Many scholars have viewed Hungary as the model that inspired democratic erosion elsewhere, from Central Europe to Latin America and even the United States. Do you believe Hungary’s democratic recovery offers transferable lessons for opposition movements confronting competitive authoritarian governments elsewhere, or are Hungary’s political and institutional conditions too distinctive for meaningful comparison?

Dr. Hanna Folsz: I absolutely think that it offers lessons. Of course, if you look at a different case, you will always have to adapt the strategies and adapt the insights to the challenges that the opposition side faces against aspiring autocrats or competitive authoritarian rulers elsewhere. That is natural.

What we need is a very good understanding of the Hungarian case and of what features of the Hungarian case made this possible, and then a good understanding of the other local context to see how this could be adapted. Some notable traits of the Hungarian experience are sometimes potentially underestimated in commentary that uses the Hungarian case as a promise of hope for democratic change elsewhere.

It’s absolutely crucial that Fidesz was in power for 16 years, a very significant amount of time. In a lot of previous cases of reversal, we have seen less consolidated regimes. And there was very strong dissatisfaction with Fidesz by the time the Tisza Party came around, but that could not previously be channeled into electoral politics.

There was also very limited physical repression, so there were no arrests. There were also no party bans, et cetera, as I already mentioned. This is something that means these lessons, especially the lessons around civic mobilization, could be very different and harder to adapt in cases where such repression is very significant.

It is also important to recognize that the level of disadvantage for the opposition was actually more severe in Hungary than in a lot of other cases. This gives us hope for other cases—that if a reversal could happen here, then that can translate elsewhere. But it also might give too much comfort to opposition actors elsewhere, because it might have taken this level of disadvantage for the opposition to use innovations in civic mobilization, and for this new challenger, the Tisza Party, to emerge, and for voters to recognize that the existing opposition parties could not promise the kind of change they hoped for.

The model of this innovative civic mobilization, the model of a new credible challenger emerging that promises meaningful, positive change in Hungarian living conditions, and then promises good governance as well as the rooting out of corruption and democratic restoration, is very important.

We probably cannot get too comfortable. This level of disadvantage that the opposition had in Hungary is actually something that, maybe, shows that we do not need to reach that stage for other countries, for political entrepreneurs and political actors to take on these lessons in other cases. Maybe this avenue, this broad-based appeal that Tisza had, rather than just chipping away at Fidesz supporters or convincing only a few demobilized voters to turn out, is something that can work in other cases. Instead, creating a broad-based movement is something that can work in other cases and can promise much better opportunities for democratic restoration with a strong mandate afterward.

The Greatest Challenge Is Ensuring That the New Government Constrains Itself

A central feature of democratic backsliding in Hungary involved the gradual weakening of judicial independence and constitutional oversight. Following the recent constitutional reforms initiated by the new government, what principles should guide efforts to restore judicial autonomy without creating the perception that one form of politicization is simply replacing another?

Dr. Hanna Folsz: This is a very important challenge in Hungary right now. As I already mentioned, the Tisza Party entered office with an unprecedented mandate. It holds a two-thirds majority in parliament, which in Hungary permits constitutional amendments and essentially allows the party to unilaterally amend the constitution. There is no need for the support of the new opposition parties in parliament, and this gives Tisza extensive control over institutional reform.

They have already used this power, and they have promised to use it further in relation to the judicial system. A constitutional amendment was just approved on July 13 by the Hungarian parliament that restored a mandatory retirement age of 70 for Constitutional Court judges. This involves four of the 15 judges losing their mandates, including the president of the Constitutional Court, who was a very important Orbán appointee.

They have also promised to implement changes to the selection rules for the presidents of various judicial bodies. For instance, these changes would involve judges choosing or proposing candidates instead of the president independently selecting a nominee. But ultimately, all of these changes would still rest on ratification by a two-thirds majority in parliament. So they would still give Tisza the opportunity to make the final choice.

We see many positive changes that could introduce more independent rules and restore a more independent judicial sector in Hungary. But it is very important that the party exercises self-restraint and is potentially even braver and more resolute in making changes that constrain the Tisza Party itself.

Because even some of these proposed rules—for instance, leaving the appointment of the presidents of various judicial bodies to a two-thirds parliamentary majority—would still give the party essentially full discretion, or at least a very high degree of discretion, over who these officeholders are going to be. The biggest challenge is making sure that Tisza actually constrains itself and establishes a genuine separation of the judiciary from the executive branch and, to some degree, from the legislative branch through these reforms, thereby binding both itself and its successors. Whether Tisza ultimately carries out these changes that may also be politically uncomfortable for itself absolutely remains to be seen.

Democratic Restoration Must Never Become Political Retribution

The new government has promised to dismantle what it describes as the “Orbán system” while introducing sweeping constitutional reforms and anti-corruption measures. How can democratic governments dismantle authoritarian legacies without themselves appearing to engage in victor’s justice or constitutional overreach? Where should democratic restoration end and political retribution begin?

Dr. Hanna Folsz: This is a key challenge of democratic restoration and democratic restoration efforts. Ensuring that these efforts proceed in a rule-of-law-abiding manner is often very difficult, as we have seen, for instance, in Poland, and it is something that inevitably draws a great deal of public attention.

In Hungary, this challenge is also present. There is an exceptionally high degree of public legitimacy for dismantling the Fidesz system and holding Fidesz politicians and its oligarchic elite accountable for their wrongdoing and their actions against the national interest. Fidesz currently enjoys at most 20 percent support in the polls in Hungary, which is exceedingly low. We have also seen an absolute exodus of voters from the Fidesz camp, even after the party lost the election.

There is a clear public mandate. But this process of accountability should be pursued in a very careful manner. The most important thing, so far, is that Tisza is at least promising to pursue it through judicial channels. They have also emphasized that this will likely be a lengthy process.

That said, I do see two dangers. The first is that abandoning the judicial route could become a temptation, and that would absolutely undermine the legitimacy of dismantling the Orbán system in the eyes of many. I think it should, because democratic self-restraint is something this party has to practice and demonstrate if it wants to reintroduce it into Hungarian politics.

I also see another danger. To me, it is the possibility that Tisza may not allow Fidesz to be evaluated again by Hungarian voters as a political alternative in the full sense that we should expect in a democratic system.

For instance, Tisza’s recent proposal for a constitutional amendment introduced a 12-year term limit for MPs in Hungary that would apply retroactively. This follows the adoption of an eight-year limit for prime ministers, also applied retroactively, which many interpreted partly as satisfying voters’ demands that Orbán should not be able to return to power, while also serving as an act of self-restraint by Tisza.

That measure has enjoyed broad public support in Hungary, at least for now. But the proposed 12-year limit for MPs has generated much more public debate. Its retroactive application means that most of the high-profile Fidesz leaders we have seen in recent years would likely be unable to run for office again if this rule actually enters the Constitution.

To me, this does not give voters the opportunity to reject Fidesz themselves, which, in all likelihood, we think they would actually do at the polls in the next election. Instead, it appears more like a measure of retribution than one that serves the restoration of healthy democratic competition.

Lasting Democratic Trust Depends on Meaningful Citizen Participation

Supporters of the TISZA Party gather on Andrássy Avenue in Budapest during a national march led by Péter Magyar on Hungary’s March 15 national holiday, March 15, 2026. Photo: Istvan Balogh / Dreamstime.

Years of polarization, clientelism, and institutional capture often leave citizens deeply distrustful of politics itself. Beyond constitutional reforms, what strategies are necessary for rebuilding citizens’ confidence that democratic institutions can once again operate impartially and effectively?

Dr. Hanna Folsz: What is very interesting about the Hungarian case, and what is very closely related to the civic mobilization that we saw ahead of the election, is that there is an unprecedentedly broad interest in, and enthusiasm for, politics and following politics in Hungary, even after the election. That is very promising. The disaffection that we saw over more than a decade of Fidesz rule appears to have been reversed during this election and seems to persist even afterward.

But in many ways, there is still distrust of Tisza among many voters. Of course, the country’s experience over the past decade and a half has been one of politicians abusing public authority and public office for authoritarian entrenchment and private gain through corruption. There is, understandably, concern among Hungarian voters that any party—especially one with such a large mandate—could eventually fall victim to the same dynamics.

The more immediate concern is whether these participatory channels, this broad-based participation represented by the Tisza Islands and these activist groups, will continue to feed into politics itself or instead be discarded. Because maintaining them could build trust and strengthen the connection between citizens and politics.

Tisza has promised to institutionalize such participatory mechanisms. They are currently setting up the Institution for Functioning in Humane Hungary, which they describe as an institution for strengthening popular participation in politics through consultation with professionals, former civil society actors, as well as voters on proposed constitutional amendments, new public policies, and broader forms of public and civic involvement.

This is very promising, but it has not happened yet. We do not yet know exactly what it will look like. The party has asked voters and its activists for patience while it develops ways to channel this civic energy into politics and effective public policymaking in Hungary.

This is one of the most important questions that remains to be answered. The party can reasonably be granted some patience, especially as it is working very hard to meet the conditionalities required for EU funds to be restored to Hungary by the end of the summer. But after that, if this vision of popular participation in governance does not begin to materialize, some degree of public pressure would be very beneficial.

The EU Should Have Acted Earlier and More Decisively

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission arrives for a EU Summit, at the EU headquarters in Brussels, on June 30, 2023. Photo: Alexandros Michailidis.

The European Union has frequently been criticized both for responding too slowly to Hungary’s democratic backsliding and for possessing limited enforcement tools. Looking retrospectively, what lessons should European institutions draw from the Hungarian experience regarding the defense of liberal democracy among member and candidate countries?

Dr. Hanna Folsz: There’s been a great deal of excellent research, including by R. Daniel Kelemen, on the role that the EU played through its lack of action against Hungary, and at times even its support for Hungary and Viktor Orbán, in failing to become an effective obstacle to authoritarian entrenchment. Kelemen’s research shows that European party politics in the European Parliament plays a very important role. There were incentives within the European People’s Party (EPP) to support Orbán despite his authoritarian transgressions, in order to advance the EPP’s broader political objectives within the EU. That points to an important lesson: party politics within the European Union cannot be allowed to impede efforts to stop authoritarian entrenchment in an EU member state.

There have to be clear red lines. There have to be cordons sanitaires around far-right parties within the EU. We have already seen some steps in this direction. But the other important lesson—and perhaps the more important one—is that the EU should act more quickly and be more willing to invoke the conditionality of EU funding.

A large share of EU funding to Hungary was suspended in 2022, and that was one of the key reasons for the weakening of Fidesz’s support. It contributed significantly to the lack of infrastructure investment, the slowdown in economic dynamism, and the broader economic stagnation and difficulties that Hungary experienced over the past four years, all of which substantially increased public dissatisfaction.

Conditionality is a very powerful tool, and it is a legitimate one. Invoking conditionality in determining access to EU funding is entirely legitimate, and it should be used in cases such as this.

Where Violent Repression Is Limited, Peaceful Democratic Change Remains Possible

Some scholars have argued that competitive authoritarian regimes are inherently unstable because they continue to rely on elections for legitimacy, while others view them as remarkably durable hybrid systems. Has the Hungarian case altered your own understanding of the long-term resilience—or fragility—of competitive authoritarian regimes?

Dr. Hanna Folsz: For one, 16 years of Fidesz rule in Hungary is a remarkably long time. Even if the regime ultimately proved vulnerable to an electoral challenge, it still represented an unprecedented period of authoritarian rule within the European Union that we must take seriously. The fact that an authoritarian regime could emerge under the conditions that it did in Hungary is, in itself, an absolute testament to the power of these authoritarian movements.

Nevertheless, the main lesson is that these regimes, and their continuity, ultimately rest on popularity. It requires a much greater shift of voters away from the regime than in democracies for that to translate into an opposition electoral victory. But there is hope. There is real potential for that to happen. Civic mobilization and the electoral mobilization of voters behind the opposition are what can ultimately bring these regimes to an end. As long as there is limited capacity and infrastructure for violent repression, there remains the possibility of a peaceful transfer of power.

The Hungarian case shows that this middle ground of competitive authoritarian regimes—those that resort only limitedly to physical repression, banning opposition parties, and the kinds of tools that we see in some other contexts—is ultimately fragile. These regimes are vulnerable to a sustained loss of electoral popularity.

Defeating Authoritarianism Requires Strategies Beyond Those of Ordinary Democracies

Finally, Hungary has demonstrated both how democracies can gradually erode and how authoritarian incumbents can eventually be defeated electorally. Yet democratic recovery is often considerably more difficult than democratic decline. Looking ahead, what will determine whether Hungary becomes a lasting example of democratic renewal rather than merely another episode of political alternation? And what broader lessons should scholars of populism, democratic resilience, and authoritarianism take from Hungary’s extraordinary political trajectory?

Dr. Hanna Folsz: In terms of what Hungary will ultimately become an example of, I certainly hope that it will be a lasting example of democratic renewal. But that depends on several conditions. For one, it is important that we see self-restraint from the Tisza Party. Somewhat unfortunately, this is a situation in which we have to rely on self-restraint by the governing party because of its extraordinary political mandate.

But I also think it is crucial that we see the emergence of political alternatives to the Tisza Party in the coming years in Hungary. Entering the 2030 election with the Tisza Party facing only a very weakened Fidesz as its main opposition would be very disadvantageous for Hungarian politics if Fidesz continues to weaken in the way it has over the past couple of months.

It’s very hard to see that providing an incentive for voters to evaluate the Tisza Party against the strong benchmark that we would like to see in a democracy. There is also, for now, no real political alternative to Tisza on the left or liberal side in Hungary. We effectively have a political system with three right-wing parties. Tisza is currently very much a moderate party, but nevertheless its two challengers are on the right. Mi Hazánk, the third party in parliament, is a far-right party.

If this situation persists, it is difficult to see how voters could exercise meaningful democratic choice in the 2030 election. To me, that is very important for a successful democratic recovery. It would also place healthy pressure on Tisza, so that we do not have to rely solely on self-restraint by the party and on extra-parliamentary, extra-electoral mobilization to encourage Tisza to help Hungary achieve a strong democratic renewal.

In terms of the broader lessons from the Hungarian case and Hungary’s extraordinary political trajectory, I see a couple of important lessons that focus on the opposition and on opposition to authoritarian incumbents.

Very often, when we think about these regimes and the reasons for their popularity, we focus on the authoritarian strategies that governing parties employ. We examine institutional manipulation, authoritarian entrenchment, media capture, the capture of civil society, economic coercion, as well as ethnopopulist and distributive appeals to voters, together with voters’ willingness to tolerate these transgressions. But we also need to think seriously about the role that the availability of opposition and credible alternatives plays in allowing such regimes to survive and preventing a democratic alternative from emerging. Hungary shows that the combination of a new political party and a broad-based civic movement built around semi-autonomous civic organizations and civic groups can become a powerful vehicle for democratic change.

The Hungarian experience also offers two further lessons. First, it demonstrates that broad-based civic mobilization is possible. We should therefore think much more seriously about these possibilities and about what kinds of innovations enable opposition movements to overcome the distinctive challenges they face under authoritarian incumbents. We may simply need to be much more inventive.

Second, we cannot continue to operate under assumptions about democratic competition that are derived from established democracies when we are dealing with authoritarian contexts. The rules of the game are fundamentally different. Accordingly, the strategies that opposition movements must employ in these settings are also likely to be fundamentally different from those that work in democracies.

Associate Professor Laura Gamboa

Assoc. Prof. Gamboa: By the Time the Authoritarian Threat Becomes Evident, It’s Usually Too Late

Drawing on comparative evidence from Colombia, Venezuela, Guatemala, Mexico, and beyond, Associate Professor Laura Gamboa offers a compelling rethinking of democratic resilience in an age of gradual authoritarianism. Rather than viewing democratic backsliding solely through the ambitions of would-be autocrats, she demonstrates that democratic survival depends equally on the strategic choices of opposition parties, constitutional courts, and civil society. Reflecting on Colombia’s 2026 presidential election, Assoc. Prof. Gamboa argues that the results present “a mixed story,” simultaneously revealing institutional resilience and new democratic vulnerabilities. She warns that contemporary authoritarianism advances incrementally—often becoming visible only when “it’s usually too late”—while urging democratic actors to address citizens’ grievances, strengthen institutional legitimacy, reduce polarization, and defend constitutional democracy without abandoning democratic principles.

Interview by Selcuk Gultasli

The contemporary crisis of democracy rarely unfolds through dramatic coups or sudden constitutional collapse. Instead, democratic erosion increasingly advances through legal reforms, institutional manipulation, and the gradual concentration of executive power. This slow-moving process has transformed democratic backsliding into one of the defining political challenges of the twenty-first century, raising urgent questions about how constitutional democracies can defend themselves against elected leaders who weaken democratic institutions from within. Few scholars have contributed more to answering these questions than Associate Professor Laura Gamboa of the University of Notre Dame, whose work has fundamentally reshaped our understanding of democratic resilience.

Unlike much of the earlier literature, which focused primarily on aspiring autocrats, Assoc. Prof. Gamboa redirects attention to the democratic opposition itself. In Resisting Backsliding: Opposition Strategies against the Erosion of Democracy and New Forms of Democratic Erosion in Latin America, she argues that democratic survival depends not only on the ambitions of authoritarian leaders but also on the strategic choices of opposition parties, constitutional courts, legislatures, and civil society. By shifting the analytical focus from autocrats to democratic resistance, her scholarship offers one of the most original frameworks for explaining why some democracies withstand authoritarian pressures while others gradually succumb.

The timing of this interview is especially significant. Colombia’s 2026 presidential election has reignited debates about democratic accountability, populism, institutional resilience, and constitutional government across Latin America. While many observers interpreted the election as a straightforward ideological shift to the political right, Assoc. Prof. Gamboa argues that “the 2026 elections give us a mixed story.” She highlights both the resilience of Colombia’s democratic institutions and troubling warning signs, emphasizing that “both the candidate who won the election and the president’s unwillingness to recognize the election results are not good news for democracy.” Her assessment reminds us that electoral alternation alone neither guarantees democratic renewal nor necessarily signals democratic decline.

A recurring theme throughout the interview is the changing nature of authoritarianism. Contemporary autocrats rarely destroy democracy overnight. Instead, they rely on constitutional reforms, elections, plebiscites, and legal mechanisms to weaken liberal democracy incrementally. As Assoc. Prof. Gamboa warns, “by the time the threat becomes evident, it’s usually too late.” Because democratic erosion often proceeds under the appearance of constitutional legality, recognizing the danger of autocratization before institutions are fundamentally weakened has become increasingly difficult.

The interview also challenges conventional assumptions about populism. Rather than treating it as inherently incompatible with democracy, Assoc. Prof. Gamboa describes populism as “a double-sided coin,” capable of expanding political inclusion while simultaneously encouraging personalistic leadership and executive aggrandizement. Equally important, she argues that democratic oppositions must resist dismissing populist voters. “All of these would-be autocrats come to power because they tap into some kind of discontent,” she explains, emphasizing that democratic forces must address underlying grievances rather than simply condemn their political expression. Ultimately, her message is one of strategic democratic resilience: defend institutions, broaden coalitions, reduce polarization, and remember that “doing politics in a society that is not polarized is significantly easier than doing politics in a society that is polarized.” In an era of democratic uncertainty, Assoc. Prof. Gamboa offers a compelling roadmap for understanding—and resisting—the gradual erosion of constitutional democracy.

Here is the revised version of our interview with Associate Professor Laura Gamboa, edited lightly to enhance clarity, readability, and overall flow for publication.

Colombia’s 2026 Elections Give Us a Mixed Story

President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella and Vice President-elect Jose Manuel Restrepo.
Credential-giving ceremony to President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella and Vice President-elect Jose Manuel Restrepo by the National Electoral Council in Bogota, Colombia on June 25, 2026. Photo: Anamaria Mejía / Dreamstime.

Professor Gamboa, welcome, and let me begin with Colombia’s recent presidential election. This election has been widely interpreted as a decisive shift to the political right following Gustavo Petro’s presidency. Yet throughout your scholarship, you have consistently argued that electoral alternation should not be confused with democratic deterioration or democratic recovery. What do the election results ultimately tell us about the health of Colombian democracy? Should this election be understood primarily as ideological realignment, democratic accountability in action, or as another manifestation of the broader anti-establishment politics reshaping contemporary democracies?

Assoc. Prof. Laura Gamboa: The 2026 elections give us a mixed story. On the one hand, when Gustavo Petro came to power, many Colombians were very worried that he was going to become “the second Chávez”—that he was not going to step down. And here we are. As far as I can tell, he’s planning to step down. Now, there’s the minor issue of his not recognizing the election results, which I’ll get into in a second. But he is stepping down, and Colombia’s main institutional infrastructure remains intact. Congress and the courts were able to check the president whenever they needed to, while also allowing some of his proposals to move forward. So I think that’s good news.

I also think this has probably been true since 2018, and it became significantly clearer in 2022, but these last four years have been, in many ways, a sort of spring for Colombian politics. For the longest time, Colombian politics revolved around security: How did we deal with the armed conflict? Over these past four years—and certainly during this past election—we’ve been discussing healthcare and pension reform. We’ve also been questioning, for good or for bad—you can agree or disagree with these questions—what used to be regarded as unquestionable macroeconomic orthodoxy, something we simply weren’t supposed to touch. For the first time, these issues have become part of the political conversation, and I think that’s important in any democracy. So I do think that there has been some kind of ideological realignment. We no longer have the simple pro-peace versus anti-peace divide, but rather a much more complicated political landscape in our electoral arena.

That being said, I also think that both the candidate who won the election and the president’s unwillingness to recognize the election results are not good news for democracy. I don’t remember ever seeing a president fail to recognize election results. Our elections are not perfect, by any means, but they’re pretty good. Our electoral system works well, and people generally trust the election results. So I think that’s bad news.

I also think Abelardo de la Espriella, who won the election, is a far-right candidate who ran a campaign based on emotions, outlandish statements, and sweeping proposals. He has claimed that he wants to govern by decree. He has appointed members of his cabinet who are anti-globalists and promoters of conspiracy theories. So I think none of that is good news for democracy.

The Path from Democratic Victory to Democratic Breakdown

Throughout Resisting Backsliding, you caution against equating electoral victories by controversial or populist leaders with democratic breakdown. What analytical criteria should scholars use to distinguish between ordinary democratic alternation, constitutional conflict, and genuine democratic erosion? At what point does vigorous democratic competition become a threat to democracy itself?

Assoc. Prof. Laura Gamboa: I depart from the principle that, no matter how crazy someone may be, if you win a democratic election—one that is free and fair and won without cheating—you deserve to govern for whatever period the law provides, whether that’s a presidential term or a prime minister’s term. This is true for presidents like Joe Biden, who I believe has a normative preference for democracy. I also think it’s true for Donald Trump, who I really don’t think has a normative preference for democracy.

What I don’t think, however, is that you get to govern like a king. In a democracy, presidents, prime ministers, legislatures, and judiciaries are subject to constitutions and the rule of law. In that regard, authoritarian leaders who try to evade or ignore these constraints are a danger to democracy. That’s when we’re facing genuine threats to democracy.

Between someone being a danger to democracy and someone actually eroding democracy, however, there are two distinct steps. First, there is a person trying; then there is a person succeeding in those attempts. In many ways, we have to think about this sequentially.

Why Democratic Erosion Is Harder to Recognize Than Ever

You argue that twenty-first-century democracies rarely collapse through classic military coups but instead erode gradually through legal and constitutional means. Why has democratic backsliding become such a slow-moving institutional process rather than an abrupt rupture, and does this gradualism paradoxically make contemporary authoritarianism more difficult both to recognize and to resist?

Assoc. Prof. Laura Gamboa: This is one of the great achievements of the end of the Cold War. All of a sudden, we all like democracy, and we all want to be democrats. Citizens, foreign governments, and international organizations have all become supporters of democracy, broadly conceived, and no leader wants to be labeled undemocratic or anti-democratic. There are important symbolic and practical consequences to being “a dictator.” In order to avoid being called a dictator, leaders with authoritarian tendencies generally don’t resort to overtly abrasive actions like coups, self-coups, or the kinds of moves we used to see in the past. Instead, they turn to methods that are much more covert.

They still want to gain control over other branches of government. They still want to govern without limits. But they don’t want to do so in a way that would brand them as authoritarians or dictators. Of course, the problem with this kind of democratic backsliding is that, when these leaders try to undermine democracy without appearing to be dictators, they usually use and abuse the very levers of democracy. They try to change the rules. They invoke popular power to bypass other institutions. They resort to false information and other practices that are not necessarily visibly undemocratic, but are nevertheless undemocratic.

Precisely because these actions are not visibly undemocratic, they are very difficult to identify. It’s hard for someone who is concerned about democracy to say, “You are trying to undermine democracy,” when the only thing the president appears to be doing is proposing a constitutional reform. Or when the only thing the president appears to be doing is calling for a plebiscite. After all, plebiscites are supposed to be highly democratic. A lot of people are voting, so it’s really difficult to convey where the threat lies. And by the time the threat becomes evident, it’s usually too late.

The Double-Edged Nature of Populist Politics

The former president of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez (L) and Nicolas Maduro (R) in Cumana, Venezuela, April 17, 2009. Photo: Harold Escalona.

Much of the public debate assumes that populism inevitably produces democratic backsliding. Yet your work suggests a more nuanced relationship. Under what political and institutional conditions does populism become compatible with democratic inclusion, and when does it evolve into a vehicle for executive aggrandizement and democratic erosion?

Assoc. Prof. Laura Gamboa: Populism is a double-sided coin. I don’t think you get one without the other. On the one hand, all populists are vehicles for inclusion. They tend to mobilize people who were previously outside the political arena. This was true of Juan Domingo Perón in Argentina in the 1940s. It was true for Hugo Chávez in the 1990s and early 2000s, and it is also true for Donald Trump.

We see something similar in Colombia. The recent election, with Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Zepeda running, produced an unprecedented turnout in Colombia’s recent history. These leaders clearly know how to speak to groups that have not been incorporated into the political arena. The problem is that their ability to bring these groups into politics is closely tied to the way they connect with people. They don’t rely on institutional channels—particularly political parties—to relate to their constituencies. Instead, they operate outside those channels. Not only that, but sometimes—and more often than not—they actively delegitimize those institutional channels, which makes them, and only them, the sole viable leader. That, in turn, makes them incredibly dangerous for democracy because, if you see yourself as the only translator of the popular will, then you can never leave office.

So, I think populism is, in that sense, a double-sided sword. On the one hand, populists tap into some kind of grievance, perhaps an unfulfilled need or a lack of representation. In doing so, they mobilize people who were not part of the political conversation before. But the way they do so is incredibly personalistic, charismatic, and ultimately authoritarian.

So, when they become presidents, you have this inherent tension: a leader who is able to mobilize large numbers of people who were previously outside the political arena, but also a leader who wants to remain in power because he sees himself as the translator of the popular will.

Democratic Survival Depends on Opposition Strategy

One of your book’s most original contributions is shifting attention away from aspiring autocrats toward the democratic opposition itself. Why do you believe the behavior of opposition parties is so frequently underestimated in explaining democratic survival? More fundamentally, can democratic oppositions unintentionally accelerate democratic erosion even while believing they are defending democracy?

Assoc. Prof. Laura Gamboa: Although my book was published in 2022, the analytical lens has increasingly shifted toward the opposition ever since Donald Trump came to power. If you ask me why scholars didn’t pay much attention to the opposition before, my first instinct is that these kinds of phenomena—populists coming to power, undermining institutions, and eroding democracy—were largely seen as phenomena of the Global South. So we simply didn’t think very much about democratic survival. But when Donald Trump came to power—when this became something that was happening in the United States—all of a sudden scholars, activists, and practitioners were forced to think seriously about democratic survival.

To a certain extent, the prevailing attitude toward the Hugo Chávezes, Evo Moraleses, and Rafael Correas of the Global South was: “Oh, yeah, those people gain power there. Of course they’re going to win there. These countries are poor, they’re weak, they have weak parties.” When Donald Trump won the election in the United States, however, we were suddenly confronted with the fact that these kinds of leaders could also win office in countries we considered consolidated democracies. And all of a sudden, we were confronted with a new question: We have to think about democratic survival. This has to be a real possibility.

There’s something about the way we think about dictators in general that makes it very difficult to see successes and failures as a byproduct of opposition strategies. The academic world has largely split into two camps. One camp believes that when would-be autocrats or dictators fail, it’s because the dictator was weak. So, of course, they were going to fail. It doesn’t matter who the opposition was or what the opposition did. The dictator was simply weak. Likewise, when dictators succeed, it becomes a kind of fait accompli: of course, the dictator was going to win because the dictator was strong.

Then, there’s the camp in which I position myself. But I’m really standing on the shoulders of some incredibly important scholarship, including one of my favorite books, Valerie J. Bunce and Sharon L. Wolchik’s work on the color revolutions in Eastern Europe. That scholarship looks at the other side of the bottle. Rather than focusing on strong or weak dictators, it focuses on strong or weak oppositions, or on strategically smart and well-organized oppositions.

If you’re in one camp, it’s very difficult to see what the other camp is seeing. So I think those are the two reasons why the opposition was so often overlooked.

The only reason I started thinking about the opposition is because I’m originally from Colombia. In 2012, we had a visitor here at Notre Dame, where I was doing my PhD, who was talking about how Hugo Chávez and Evo Morales who were able to erode democracy because they were so popular. At the time, I had just come out of Álvaro Uribe’s government. Of course, any Colombian knows that Uribe was incredibly popular, at least until fairly recently.

So all of a sudden, I found myself asking, “Okay, but hold on. If popularity is all that matters, then we should have expected Álvaro Uribe to succeed.” That question, of course, led me to start looking at what Tom Ginsburg and Aziz Huq call the “near misses.” Why do some countries succeed while others fail?

But I don’t think that question would have been obvious to anyone who wasn’t thoroughly familiar with the Colombian case. The assumption was simply that Álvaro Uribe was never going to succeed because he ultimately did not succeed. There’s a kind of tautological logic underlying many of these cases.

Ignoring Citizens’ Grievances Strengthens Would-Be Autocrats

Your typology distinguishes between moderate institutional opposition and radical extra-institutional resistance. Yet when democratic institutions themselves become increasingly captured by elected autocrats, many opposition actors argue that extraordinary measures become necessary. How should democratic forces determine when institutional resistance remains democratic—and when radical resistance risks giving autocratizers the pretext they need to repress, delegitimize, or criminalize the opposition?

Assoc. Prof. Laura Gamboa: This is a very complicated question because, to a certain extent, it is connected to this duality, this double-sided nature of democratic backsliding. The fact that it happens slowly provides opportunities for the opposition. But the fact that it happens so slowly also makes it very difficult to identify exactly where the threat lies.

My book mostly analyzes presidents who come to power democratically. In other words, I don’t analyze Nicolás Maduro because he never came to power democratically. Nor would I analyze the later terms of Erdoğan, who I don’t think has come to power democratically in the past two elections. I focus on presidents who come to power democratically. And, to the extent that these presidents come to power democratically, it is incredibly important to respect the electoral process.

Not only because that’s the democratic thing to do—you cannot claim that the other side is violating democracy if you’re not willing to respect its basic tenets—but also because many of these leaders come to power by tapping into real grievances. They don’t come to power out of thin air. There’s something missing in the system that these leaders are responding to, and the people they represent deserve to have their voices heard.

When Hugo Chávez came to power, he did not inherit a perfect Venezuela. He came to power in a country where the political class had become corrupt, the economy was collapsing, inequality was through the roof, and the mechanisms of representation—particularly the political parties—had become deeply delegitimized. Yes, Hugo Chávez certainly contributed to the further de-legitimization of institutions. But the weakness of Venezuela’s traditional parties long predated Chávez’s arrival on the political scene.

So, I think these leaders tap into something that is real, and I don’t think we can simply ignore those grievances because we disagree with them. The same is true of the people who voted for Donald Trump. Yes, Donald Trump is a would-be autocrat, and I really don’t agree with—or think that—his positions on immigration or LGBTQ+ communities are going to make this country any better. But I do think the grievances that propelled him to power are real. People felt that their towns were changing because, all of a sudden, there were many newcomers. People felt that opportunities were going to someone else. Those feelings are real, and they need to be grappled with.

So, if you simply say, “Well, this president that you elected democratically is not a legitimate president,” you’re ignoring the grievances of those citizens. That’s a mistake. It’s much smarter to grapple with those grievances and figure out how to address them—not how to embrace the policies, but how to address those feelings of not being seen and not being heard, which are actually at the core of many of these problems.

Of course, as I mentioned before, autocrats don’t get to govern like kings. If they commit crimes or do things in office that they shouldn’t do, there are constitutional mechanisms to deal with them and remove them. Sometimes those mechanisms work, and sometimes they don’t. Most constitutions include some form of impeachment process. Parliamentary systems have votes of no confidence. There are institutional mechanisms for dealing with these situations that don’t require organizing in the streets, launching a coup, or organizing a strike to force the president to resign.

I think using institutions is, in general, a good idea, regardless of repression. I don’t think, however, that institutions, in and of themselves, function the same way in the early stages of democratic erosion as they do in the later stages. I hear this criticism all the time when people read my book. They come back and say, “Well, institutions weren’t going to work in Venezuela in 2015.” My response is: of course, they weren’t. Those institutions had already been co-opted. They were no longer impartial referees of political competition. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t participate in elections.

Choosing not to use those institutions simply means abandoning political space that you could still occupy. It does mean, however, that institutions alone are not enough. At that point, you have to think about whether it makes sense to combine them with certain extra-institutional strategies, as we saw, for example, in Guatemala in 2023. Bernardo Arévalo entered an election that he was very unlikely to win. The stars aligned, he made it into the runoff, and he ultimately won. But because the system had already been co-opted—and because, more specifically, the electoral authorities were effectively controlled by the attorney general—he was unlikely to actually become president unless something else happened. And that something else happened in the streets. Indigenous communities, peasant organizations, and urban groups mobilized to defend the election.

So, to answer the question, when there is a democratic electoral process and one of these leaders becomes president, they have earned the right to govern within the limits of the law. I also think that using institutions is a good idea regardless. And I cannot think of a single example in which extra-institutional strategies pursuing radical goals actually helped promote democracy.

In Latin America, we had one successful coup, the one against Manuel Zelaya. What ended up happening was that Zelaya was removed from office, but another authoritarian leader was installed in his place. Honduras remained close to authoritarianism during the first few years afterward and has been authoritarian ever since. So, I just don’t think that advances democracy. It may advance one side of the political spectrum, but it doesn’t advance democracy.

Successors Can Become Democracy’s Unexpected Defenders

Former Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos.
Former Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos participates in the March for Life in Bogotá, Colombia, on March 8, 2015. Photo: Dreamstime.

Your comparison of Colombia under Álvaro Uribe and Venezuela under Hugo Chávez shows that similar institutional pressures can produce radically different outcomes depending on opposition strategy. Looking back from today’s vantage point, what is the most important lesson Colombia offers about resisting democratic erosion without abandoning democratic legitimacy?

Assoc. Prof. Laura Gamboa: The first lesson is the one I pointed out earlier. I think that kind of opposition protects democracy in the long term. By the time Álvaro Uribe stepped down, we still had a Constitutional Court, we still had a Congress that had not been co-opted, and we still had oversight agencies. I think that, in and of itself, is incredibly important.

There’s another lesson here, and I sometimes get criticized for it. People who read my book say, “How can you say that?” They argue that I end the Colombian chapter on an overly optimistic note, as though Colombia somehow just lived happily ever after in this blessed democracy, which is really not true.

So, let me put it this way. I don’t think moderate institutional strategies that stop democratic erosion are designed to advance democracy. They stop the bleeding. They stop the immediate threats to democracy. In doing so, they create windows of opportunity for others, later on, to deepen and expand democracy. That’s what happened in Colombia. Juan Manuel Santos came to power, pushed forward the peace agreement, and Colombia became a better democracy afterward than it had been when Álvaro Uribe stepped down.

There’s another criticism I sometimes receive about the Colombian case. People say, “What are you talking about? It was a member of Uribe’s coalition who actually came to power.” Uribe himself couldn’t run, but Juan Manuel Santos—his former minister of defense—won the presidency. To that, I would simply say: yes, but successors are not the autocrat.

We’ve been pleasantly surprised by a number of successors in Latin America and elsewhere. Lenín Moreno, who succeeded Correa, was not Correa’s puppet. Santos was not Uribe’s puppet. Luis Arce has had a more mixed trajectory, but, to a certain extent, after coming to power, he also veered away from Evo Morales and his attempts to remain in office. So, successors are not necessarily the same as their charismatic predecessors. That’s something we need to keep in mind, because sometimes those successors are our best chance to protect democracy.

Legitimacy Makes Courts Democracy’s Strongest Guardrails

In your recent work on “courts against backsliding,” you argue that independent courts can engage in “constitutional balancing” and slow or stop autocratization. What makes courts effective defenders of democracy in some contexts, while in others they become captured, politicized, or unable to contain executive power?

Assoc. Prof. Laura Gamboa: I’ll make a distinction first, and I don’t think it’s one we make often enough. Courts can be, and often are, potential guardrails against democratic erosion. But sometimes they are the drivers of democratic backsliding. To a certain extent, democratic erosion in countries like Guatemala—and, I say this more cautiously, the United States—has been driven by certain courts. Definitely not all courts, but certain ones.

So, when I talk about constitutional balancing, I’m talking about courts that are designed to be guardrails for democracy, not courts that are pushing the process forward.

This research—which is still ongoing—is something I’m conducting with Ezequiel González-Ocantos from Oxford and Benjamín García Holgado from the University of Delaware.

For these courts to be successful, they need to have some kind of legitimacy. One of the lessons from the Colombian case is that, to a certain extent, the Constitutional Court was able to curb Álvaro Uribe’s attempts to undermine democracy because the court itself enjoyed a high degree of legitimacy. It was in a position that, for instance, the Venezuelan Supreme Court—before Chávez changed the Constitution—was not.

So the first thing I would say is that it’s not so much about the court being independent or autonomous as it is about the court being legitimate in the eyes of the public and about people being willing to defend that legitimacy. I also think there’s something about how the court rules that is very important.

In the article you’re referring to, we talk about constitutional balancing. What we mean by constitutional balancing is that, when democracy is threatened by violations of horizontal accountability—that is, attempts by the executive, or others, to undermine checks and balances—the court can rely on a more orthodox jurisprudence to rule against those attempts and preserve the constitutional balance.

This orthodox approach to threats against checks and balances is usually more effective than a more heterodox approach because it is easier to defend and support. If you think about it, what usually happens is that you have a very popular incumbent trying to change the Constitution while claiming some kind of democratic mandate. Then you have an unelected court trying to stop that incumbent.

If the court relies on existing written law or long-standing jurisprudence, it can act much more forcefully than if it relies on some kind of out-of-the-blue theory to rule against the incumbent. This becomes very clear when you compare the case of Mexico with the case of Colombia, although it’s also true of Argentina and other countries.

In Colombia, during Álvaro Uribe’s government, the Constitutional Court relied on a constitutional provision stating that constitutional reforms had to follow a particular procedure. What the opposition did inside Congress was to signal to the court when Congress was violating that procedure. The court therefore ruled primarily on those procedural irregularities. 

During Álvaro Uribe’s government, the court and some of its allies were developing what we call the constitutional substitution theory. That theory suggested that if constitutional reforms went beyond a certain point, they were no longer reforms but attempts to replace the Constitution, and that the Constitution could not be replaced through ordinary constitutional amendment. On that basis, the court could rule against those reforms. But in the early 2000s, this was still a very new theory, so the Constitutional Court in Colombia invoked it only very rarely in its rulings against Uribe. Today, we see the court invoking it left and right, but twenty years have passed. 

Some scholars believed that the Mexican Supreme Court could invoke the same theory to stop the judicial reform that ultimately dismantled judicial independence in Mexico. The Mexican Court, to a certain extent, played with that possibility. But because the theory had never been used in Mexico, it was very difficult for the court suddenly to argue, almost out of thin air, that this judicial theory justified ruling against a very popular incumbent. So, we think jurisprudence matters.

There’s also other work that points to two additional factors I think are important. One is that the Colombian Constitutional Court has been very good at ruling even-handedly. In Spanish, we have a saying that the court gives to both God and the devil. The justices understood that they needed to protect both themselves and the institution, so they were very careful not only to constrain the government but also to present themselves as a balanced court.

The other line of research that is very important focuses on how courts build legitimacy through networks of allies, both inside and outside the judiciary. We’re talking not only about justices, but also lawyers, legal NGOs, and activists who have a vested interest in preserving the court. These actors help support the justices and make it much more difficult for an incumbent to fire them, dismantle the court, or undermine it in other ways.

Why Constitutional Constraints Matter More Than Speed

Your work with Sandra Botero shows how Colombia’s Constitutional Court indirectly expands the strategic repertoire of minority coalitions in Congress by allowing them to document procedural irregularities and challenge legislation. Can institutional obstruction be a democratic tool of resistance, and how can we distinguish legitimate constitutional defense from anti-democratic sabotage?

Assoc. Prof. Laura Gamboa: Like populists, institutional controls—or these kinds of institutional checks—are two-sided coins. On the one hand, they’re really good at curbing potential autocrats who leverage majorities, and they’re really good at protecting minorities, regardless of who those minorities are, from abuses of power. I think that’s a good thing. But, on the other hand, this also means that they sometimes curb the will of the majority and, in doing so, constrain policy reforms that many of us might regard as beneficial for the community or for the country.

I don’t know if you can have one without the other. I think this is a trade-off. If you want institutions that are able to check other branches of government—in this case, a court that can check both the executive and Congress—that court inevitably becomes a source of moderation for public policy. I don’t think there’s a way to have one without the other.

And I also don’t think this is an entirely bad thing. Let me explain why. Colombia has had many presidents, some of whom I supported and some of whom I didn’t. In 2016, Juan Manuel Santos was pushing for the peace process, which I strongly supported. He wanted to pass a reform that would have allowed him to introduce the legislation implementing the peace agreements to Congress and turn it into law while curtailing the ability of members of Congress to add amendments or modify it in any way, shape, or form.

This would have significantly sped up the implementation of the peace agreements and probably would have changed the ability of subsequent governments—both Iván Duque’s and Gustavo Petro’s—to undermine those agreements. That being said, it would also have created an incredibly dangerous precedent for future presidents, one that I fear could be used for purposes I would consider less “democratic” or beneficial for the community.

The court ruled against it. Indeed, implementing the peace agreement and turning it into law was arduous and complicated, and it certainly diluted some of its provisions. There’s no doubt about that. But I would rather have that than allow a president whom I don’t trust, and whom I think is inherently authoritarian, like Abelardo de la Espriella, to use that same power to push through measures that would violate human rights or allow him to govern without any meaningful constraints. That is incredibly dangerous.

As a matter of fact, it’s one of the reasons why I’m very hesitant—or very ambivalent—about my view of the filibuster in the United States. Most Democrats, and most of my colleagues, will tell you that the filibuster is terrible because Republicans have mostly used it to obstruct the Obama and Biden administrations—to block judicial appointments, obstruct policy agendas, and prevent the implementation of Democratic priorities. And I think they’re right. But I also think that the filibuster today is the last institutional tool Democrats in Congress have to stand on if they are to have any chance of even minimally curtailing what I see as an incredibly dangerous and authoritarian agenda on the part of the current government.

So, I don’t think you can have one without the other. But if I have to choose, I’d rather have a court that moderates the policy agenda while also protecting me from people whom I consider to be autocrats than a court that does not moderate the policy agenda and is also unable to protect me from people whom I think are authoritarian.

Lowering Polarization Is One of Democracy’s Strongest Defenses

Colombia, protest.
Protesters march peacefully through Bogotá calling for the impeachment of President Gustavo Petro and opposing the government’s proposed reforms on April 21, 2024. Photo: Anamaria Mejía / Dreamstime.

Finally, drawing together your work on Colombia, Venezuela, Latin America, courts, opposition strategy, and democratic resilience, what would a global “democratic resistance playbook” look like today? What are the core mistakes opposition actors must avoid, and what principles should guide democratic forces confronting elected leaders who erode democracy from within?

Assoc. Prof. Laura Gamboa: I have a couple of ideas: One of the core mistakes—and I see this happening time and time again—is dismissing the reasons why the autocrat comes to power. All of these would-be autocrats come to power because they tap into some kind of discontent. Opposition parties and pro-democratic movements should take that discontent seriously. They should ask themselves how they can address it. My understanding is that, more often than not, this discontent reflects a lack of representation.

It’s not about whether people prefer stricter or more permissive immigration policies, or whether they support reproductive rights. It’s about people wanting to be seen by those who govern them and wanting to be understood by those who govern them.

What Hugo Chávez had that other politicians lacked was the ability to present himself as one of the people he represented. Álvaro Uribe had a similar strength. He, too, presented himself as one of the people he represented. The same is true of Trump. The same is true of leaders like Abelardo de la Espriella, and even Gustavo Petro, who is, in some ways, a Colombian populist on the left.

We really need to think very carefully about representation. When confronting one of these populist leaders in the executive, we need to reflect on what we’re missing and what we failed to tap into. 

If we do this as pro-democratic activists, practitioners, and scholars—if we take these questions seriously—it will enable us to approach opposition differently.

Rather than approaching opposition as a mechanism for getting rid of everything the other side represents, we can approach it in a more respectful manner toward the voters—not the autocrat, but the voters who put that person into office.

It will allow us to see the coalition that brings these autocrats to power as more diverse than we often assume, and perhaps find allies at the margins. And allies at the margins are a great idea because they help us build broader coalitions. They are the Juan Manuel Santoses of the story.

That also reduces the feeling that you need to get rid of this guy today. In doing so, it allows you to develop longer-term strategies that protect democracy while also lowering polarization.

To have a polarized society, you need two sides. You need the polarizer, but you also need somebody to respond to that polarization. If you don’t respond to that polarization, it’s really hard to polarize. Ask Gustavo Petro. Doing politics in a society that is not polarized is significantly easier than doing politics in a society that is polarized.

A society that is not polarized allows you to build coalitions with the other side. It allows you to highlight the importance of protecting institutions beyond immediate policy interests. It allows you to draw voters toward more moderate candidates. So, in the long run, it allows you to accomplish much more. 

Those are the two mistakes that I see opposition actors making time and time again when confronting these kinds of situations.

SummerSchool

ECPS Academy Summer School — Europe Between Oceans: The Future of the EU Trade Between the Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific (July 6-10, 2026)

CASE COMPETITION INFO-PACK


Are you interested in global trade politics and the future of Europe in a shifting world order? Do you want to understand how populism, great-power rivalry, and geopolitical tensions are reshaping EU trade between the Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific? The ECPS Academy Summer School 2026 offers a unique five-day program where leading scholars and policymakers explore the EU’s role in an era of economic uncertainty and strategic competition. Participants will engage in interactive lectures, small-group discussions, and a dynamic simulation game on EU trade strategy, gaining hands-on experience in policy analysis and recommendation drafting. Join an international, multidisciplinary environment, exchange ideas with peers worldwide, earn ECTS credits, and become part of a global network studying populism, political economy, and international relations.

Overview

In today’s rapidly shifting global order, the European Union can no longer afford to think in one direction. For decades, the transatlantic relationship has been the backbone of global trade, built on shared institutions, economic interdependence, and liberal values. Yet this foundation is no longer stable. As highlighted in the ECPS report Populism and the Future of Transatlantic Relations, domestic political polarization and the rise of populism on both sides of the Atlantic are reshaping trade policy, weakening trust, and challenging the very principles of open markets and multilateralism. The EU now faces a critical question: how to remain a global trade power when its closest partner is becoming less predictable.

At the same time, the center of gravity of global trade is shifting toward the Indo-Pacific. This region has become the epicenter of economic dynamism and geopolitical competition, where the future of global trade rules is increasingly being contested. The growing rivalry between the United States and China is not only a security issue but also a trade and technological struggle shaping supply chains, investment flows, and regulatory standards. As the US adopts more unilateral and strategic approaches to trade, moving away from traditional multilateralism, the EU must navigate a complex environment where cooperation, competition, and coercion coexist. Ignoring the transpacific dimension would mean missing where the future of global trade is being written.

For the European Union, the challenge and opportunity lie in managing both arenas simultaneously. The transatlantic relationship remains indispensable for economic scale, regulatory cooperation, and political alignment, while the transpacific region is crucial for diversification, resilience, and strategic autonomy. As scholars increasingly argue, the EU is no longer just a “junior partner” but an actor that must define its own role within a triangular system shaped by US–China competition. To lead in international trade today means mastering this dual engagement: stabilizing relations with the United States while actively shaping the Indo-Pacific order. This requires not only policy innovation but also a new generation of thinkers who understand trade through a geopolitical lens.

Against this backdrop, ECPS Academy Summer School-2026 brings together leading scholars and policymakers to examine how populism and great-power competition are reshaping EU trade policy across both transatlantic and transpacific arenas. 

It offers a unique opportunity to explore:

  • The future of EU–US trade relations in an era of populism
  • The strategic importance of the Indo-Pacific and the US–China trade rivalry for the EU
  • How global trade is being reshaped by geopolitics, security, and ideology
  • The populist discourse around trade, policy, and power, and its implications for the EU’s trade relations
  • It also allows participating in an enjoyable and dynamic simulation game on the EU’s trade relations, trying to bring policy suggestions.

You will learn and actively engage in discussions, develop your own policy ideas, take part in simulation games, have the opportunity to publish on ECPS venues, and become part of an international network working at the intersection of political economy, international relations, and populism studies.

Tentative Program

Day 1 – Monday, July 6, 2026

Theme: The EU in the Global Trade Order: From Liberalism to Geoeconomics

This opening day sets the conceptual stage. It introduces how EU trade policy evolved from embedded liberalism to strategic autonomy, and how trade is now intertwined with security and geopolitics. It also establishes the role of populism and domestic politics in reshaping trade preferences and legitimacy crises in Europe and beyond.

Lecture One: (15:00-16:30) – Evolution of EU Trade Policy and Global Trade Order

Lecturer: Arlo Poletti (Professor of International Relations at the Department of Sociology and Social Research of the University of Trento).

Moderator: Sonali Chowdhry (Ph.D., Research Associate, DIW Berlin, Fellow, Kiel Institute for the World Economy).

Lecture Two: (17:30-19:00) – Populism, Legitimacy, and the Politicization of Trade

Lecturer: Kent Jones (Professor Emeritus of Economics, Babson College).

Moderator: Dr. Neo Sithole (Non-resident Research Fellow at ECPS Foreign Policy Research Group).

Day 2 – Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Theme: EU–US Trade Relations under Pressure: Cooperation, Conflict, and Populism

Focuses on the transatlantic pillar, still central but increasingly unstable. It examines tariff disputes, regulatory divergence, and how populist and protectionist politics in the US and Europe challenge long-standing cooperation and WTO-based norms.

Lecture Three: (15:00-16:30) –  Political Economy of EU–US Trade Relations

Lecturer: Erik Jones (Professor of European Studies and International Political Economy, Director of the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies at the European University Institute and Non-resident Scholar at Carnegie Europe).

Moderator: Elaine Fahey (Professor of EU Law, City Law School, City St. Georges, University of London).

Lecture Four: (17:30-19:00) – Populism Trumped Transatlantic Trade Cooperation

Lecturer: Alasdair Young (Professor and Neal Family Chair in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Tech).

Moderator: Jessica Lawrence (Senior Lecturer at the University of Essex School of Law).

Day 3 – Wednesday, July 8, 2026 

Theme: The EU Between the US and China: Trade, Power, and Strategic Autonomy

This session introduces the triangular dynamic (EU–US–China) and how the EU navigates between partnership and rivalry. It highlights de-risking, economic security, supply chains, and competing models of globalization.

Lecture Five: (14:00-15:30) – Strategic Autonomy, De-risking, and EU Economic Security Tools

Lecturer: Reuben Wong (Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, National University of Singapore).

Moderator: TBC.

Lecture Six: (16:00-17:30) – The EU’s Policy Towards Asia Amidst Changing US–China Security and Trade Dynamics

Lecturer: Giulio Pugliese (Director of the EU-Asia Project, European University Institute + Associate Fellow Istituto Affari Internazionali, and King’s College London).

Moderator: Anita Tusor (Researcher in International Relations, Charles University, Prague). 

Day 4 – Thursday, July 9, 2026

Theme: The Indo-Pacific Turn: EU Trade Strategy in a Shifting Global Centre

This session shifts focus to the transpacific dimension, emphasizing that the future of trade is increasingly shaped in the Indo-Pacific. It explores how US strategies toward China and the region reshape global trade, and how the EU responds through diversification and partnerships.

Lecture Seven: (15:00-16:30) – US Indo-Pacific Strategy and Its Trade Implications

Lecturer: Kristi Govella (Associate Professor of Japanese Politics and International Relations in the Nissan Institute of Japanese Studies and the Oxford School of Global and Area Studies at the University of Oxford). 

Moderator: Andrea Carteny (Professor of History of International Relations, Sapienza University of Rome). 

Lecture Eight: (17:30-19:00) – EU-Japan Relations and Populism

Lecturer: Axel Berkofsky (Associate Professor at the University of Pavia and Co-Head of the Asia Centre at ISPI).

Moderator: Sebastien Goulard (Ph.D., Manager of Cooperans, Consultant in EU-Asia connectivity projects).

Day 5 – Friday, July 10, 2026

Theme: The Future of EU Trade Power: Between Fragmentation and Leadership

This session will ask whether the EU can become a global trade power amid fragmentation, populism, and great-power rivalry. It also allows for normative and policy-oriented discussions.

Lecture Nine: (15:00-16:30) Can the EU lead? Policy Tools, Regulatory Power, and Global Influence

Lecturer: Markus Kotzur (Professor of European and International Law, Vice Dean for International Relations and Chair for Public Law, European and International Public Law, Hamburg University).

Moderator: Camille Nessel (Ph.D., Lecturer in Political Science Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB)-CEVIPOL). 

Methodology

The program will take place on Zoom, consisting of two sessions each day and will last five days. The lectures are complemented by small group discussions and Q&A sessions moderated by experts in the field. Participants will have the opportunity to engage with leading scholars in the field as well as with activists and policymakers working at the forefront of these issues.

The final program with the list of speakers will be announced soon.

Furthermore, this summer school aims to equip attendees with the skills necessary to craft policy suggestions. To this end, a simulation game will be organized on a pressing theme within the broader topic to identify solutions to issues related to the future of the EU trade relations.

Who should apply?

This course is open to master’s and PhD level students and graduates, early career researchers and post-docs from any discipline. The deadline for application submissions has been extended to June 26, 2026. As we can only accept a limited number of applicants, it is advisable to submit applications as early as possible rather than waiting for the deadline.

The applicants should send their CVs to the email address ecps@populismstudies.org with the subject line: ECPS Summer School Application.

We value the high level of diversity in our courses, welcoming applications from people of all backgrounds. 

Evaluation Criteria and Certificate of Attendance

Meeting the assessment criteria is required from all participants aiming to complete the program and receive a certificate of attendance. The evaluation criteria include full attendance and active participation in lectures.

Certificates of attendance will be awarded to participants who attend at least 80% of the sessions. Certificates are sent to students only by email.

Credit

This course is worth 5 ECTS in the European system. If you intend to transfer credit to your home institution, please check the requirements with them before you apply. We will be happy to assist you; however, please be aware that the decision to transfer credit rests with your home institution.

 


 

Brief Biographies and Abstracts

Day One: Monday, July 6, 2026

Theme: The EU in the Global Trade Order: From Liberalism to Geoeconomics

Evolution of EU Trade Policy and Global Trade Order

Arlo Poletti is a Professor of International Relations at the Department of Sociology and Social Research of the University of Trento. He obtained a PhD from the University of Bologna, was a post‐doctoral researcher at the University of Antwerp (2009-2013), and held positions as an Assistant professor at the LUISS Guido Carli (2013-2016) and the University of Bologna (2016). His research interests are in the area of International Political Economy, with particular emphasis on the politics of trade and investments, transnational advocacy at the global and EU-levels, and international regulatory cooperation. Recently, he expanded his research agenda to include analyses of how globalization-induced economic distress affects individual- level preferences and political behavior. He is the author of five monographs and his research has been published in journals such as International Organization, Regulation & Governance, JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, the Journal of European Public Policy, Review of International Studies, the European Political Science Review and Review of International Organizations.

Reading List

Bauerle Danzman, S., and Meunier, S. (2024), ‘The EU’s Geoeconomic Turn: From Policy Laggard to Institutional Innovator’,  Journal of Common Market Studies, 62: 1097–1115

De Bièvre D. and Poletti A. (2014), ‘The EU in trade policy: From regime shaper to status quo power’, in Falkner, G. and Müller, P. (eds.), EU Policies in a Global Perspective: Shaping or taking international regimes? London and New York: Routledge

Dür A., Eckhardt J. and Poletti A. (2020), ‘Global Value Chains, the Anti-Globalization Backlash and EU Trade Policy: A Research Agenda’, Journal of European Public Policy, 27(6): 944-956.

Poletti A. (2025), ‘Trade‘, in Lucarelli S. and Sperling J. (eds.), Handbook of European Union Governance, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

Dr. Sonali Chowdhry is a trade economist and Research Associate (tenure-track) based at the Firms and Markets Department, DIW Berlin. Her research investigates global supply chains, firm heterogeneity and the distributional implications of trade policy shocks. To study these issues, she analyses detailed transactions-level customs databases using modern econometric methods.

She also teaches international trade at the Hertie School in Berlin as a Guest Lecturer. In 2025, she was a Visiting Research Fellow at the Harvard Growth Lab and has been affiliated with the Trade Policy Research Centre at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy since 2019. Over 2022-2023, she was awarded the Max Weber Postdoctoral Fellowship by the European University Institute to analyse the effect of sanctions on global trade networks.

She completed her PhD in Economics (with distinction) from LMU Munich in 2022, funded by the EU’s Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions programme. Prior to this, she worked as a Junior Economist with the Ifo Institute’s Center for International Economics and pursued the MPhil in Economics from University of Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar from India.

Populism, Legitimacy, and the Politicization of Trade

Kent Jones, Dr. es sci. pol. (international economics), Graduate Institute of International Studies/University of Geneva, is Professor Emeritus of Economics at Babson College, where he taught from 1982 until his retirement in 2023. He continues his academic interests in trade policy and trade institutions, having published several books and articles on these topics, including Populism and Trade (2021). His teaching also included visiting appointments at Brandeis University, the Fletcher School at Tufts University, and the University of Innsbruck, Austria. In addition, he served as a visiting senior economist at the U.S. Department of State.

Abstract:  The GATT-WTO trading system emerged during the post-World War 2 period as a multilateral institution led by the United States that supported mutually recognized rules of trade policy, negotiations for trade liberalization, day-to-day contact among trade diplomats and dispute settlement among participants through third-party adjudication.  These functions generated positive externalities in trade relations based on coordination, cooperation, reciprocity, and a mutual recognition of the goals and benefits of trade liberalization. The system fostered eight successful rounds of trade negotiations from 1947 to 1994.  Yet the increasing diversity of its participants, along with globalization-driven adjustment crises in many countries, rapidly advancing technology and geopolitical conflict, began to erode the legitimacy of GATT-WTO rules.  Compounding these challenges, the trade policy of populist US President Donald Trump precipitated a major crisis as he abrogated numerous GATT-WTO system rules and norms, weakening its legitimacy.  Unilateral nationalist protectionism replaced multilateral cooperation as the US abandoned the core principle of non-discrimination in trade relations and abandoned previously negotiated tariff levels with its trade partners.  The shock was all the more devastating as the US had been the erstwhile leader and champion of the GATT-WTO system.  As President Trump approaches the mid-term elections of his second and final term in office, supporters of a rules-driven trading system are contemplating the possibilities and challenges of restoring the WTO’s legitimacy through reforms and initiatives, new leadership and increased flexibility in liberalizing trade in a diverse and divided world economy.

Reading List

Kent Jones (2023), Populism, Globalization, and the Prospects for Restoring the WTO, Politics and Governance, vol. 11 (1): 181-192).

Judith Goldstein and Alan Sykes (2025).  The Perils of Institutional Rigidity, or How the WTO Helped to Sow the Seeds of Trump.  World Trade Review, vol. 24: 481-489.

Patrick Low and George Riddell (2025).  Trump’s Trade Policy and the World Trade Organization.  World Trade Review, vol. 24: 489-497.

Bernard Hoekman (2025). Plurilateral cooperation in response to aggressive unilateralism?  Asia and the Global Economy, vol. 5 (2).

Dr. Neo Sithole is a non-resident research fellow at ECPS Foreign Policy Research Group. His Ph.D. at the University of Szeged, Hungary, examines the history and trends of populism and political communication in sub-Saharan Africa. Sithole has contributed to publications on democracy, the influence of populism on Western liberal democracies, democratic legitimation and populism possibilities for alternative kinds of democratic imaginings. His academic interests span African and European populism, Afro-European diplomacy, foreign policy, regional and global security, and promoting international solidarity. Sithole also serves as an ambassador for the Doktoranduszok Országos Szövetsége (DOSZ), the Hungarian Association of Doctoral Students, working to foster an inclusive and integrated scientific community.

Day 2 – Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Theme: EU–US Trade Relations under Pressure: Cooperation, Conflict, and Populism

Political Economy of EU–US Trade Relations

Erik Jones is Director of the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies at the European University Instituteand Non-resident Scholar at Carnegie Europe. Professor Jones is author of The Politics of Economic and Monetary Union (2002), Economic Adjustment and Political Transformation in Small States (2008), Weary Policeman: American Power in an Age of Austerity (2012 — with Dana H. Allin), The Year the European Crisis Ended (2014), and From Club to Commons: Enlargement, Reform, and Sustainability in European Integration (2025 — with Veronica Anghel). He is editor or co-editor of more than thirty books and special issues of journals on topics related to European politics and political economy, including reference works like The Oxford Handbook of the European Union (2012) and The Oxford Handbook of Italian Politics (2015). Professor Jones is also co-editor of Government and Opposition.

Elaine Fahey is Professor of EU Law at the City Law School, City St. Georges, University of London and Deputy Head of Department (academic programmes). She is co-convener of the Institute for the Study of European Law (ISEL), City Law School. She has been a Senior Land Steiermark Fellow of Law and Innovation at the University of Graz, Austria, a visiting Professor at Washington College of Law, American University, Washington DC, Emile Noël Fellow at New York University (NYU) Law School and a visiting professor at Keio University Law School, Tokyo, Japan as well as other visiting positions. She has worked as a Senior Postdoctoral Researcher at Amsterdam Centre for European Law & Governance (ACELG), University of Amsterdam, as a Max Weber Fellow, European University Institute (EUI), Florence and Assistant Lecturer and Lecturer in Law in Ireland (Dublin Institute of Technology; Trinity College Dublin). She has practised as a Barrister and was Chairperson of the Irish Society for European Law. She has been a stagiaire at the CJEU, Luxembourg, a Judicial Research Assistant, Four Courts, Dublin and a Judicial Extern, Los Angeles Federal District Court (9th Circuit). Her research interests span the relationship between the EU as a global digital actor, EU external relations, EU law and global governance, trade, transatlantic relations, cybersecurity and the EU’s AFSJ.

Populism Trumped Transatlantic Trade Cooperation

Alasdair Young is Professor and Neal Family Chair in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology. He is Director of the School’s Center for Research on International Strategy and Policy and is Interim Associate Dean for Faculty Development for Georgia Tech’s Ivan Allen College of Liberal Arts. He was Co-editor of JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies (2017– 2022) and was Chair of the European Union Studies Association (USA) (2015– 2017). Before joining Georgia Tech in 2011 he taught at the University of Glasgow for 10 years. Prior to that he held research posts at the European University Institute and the University of Sussex. He has written extensively on EU trade policy and transatlantic economic relations and performed consultancy work for the United States and United Kingdom governments and for the European Commission.

Abstract: Since the end of the Second World War the United States and Europe have pursued trade liberalization, initially through multilateral negotiations and subsequently through less successful bilateral cooperation.  As a result, the transatlantic economy is very valuable and deeply interpenetrated.  The transatlantic economic relationship has periodically been characterized by tensions and disputes, but these were of limited duration or narrowly contained.  During President Trump’s second term the US has reversed the process of closer economic integration and coerced the European Union into a lopsided trade agreement.  Trump ran in part on a populist anti-trade message and his policy ostensibly pursues that agenda, but the populist message on trade has been complicated by the perceived adverse impact of higher tariffs on consumers.  This lecture will situate recent US transatlantic trade policy in historical perspective, making clear what a departure from past practice it has been in both substance and form.  It will also explain why the EU accepted a lopsided agreement and assess whether the policy has realized US objectives.  It will also consider where transatlantic economic relations might go from here.

Reading List

Baldwin, R. (2026), World War Trade: Conflict, Containment, and the Emergent World Trading Order, Rapid Response Economics 7, CEPR Press, pp. 7-14

Mutz, D.C. (2021), “How Americans Think About Trade: Winners, Losers, and the Psychology of Globalization,” Foreign Affairs, 30 July.

Young, A.R. (2025), “From Trade Skirmishes to Trade War? Transatlantic Trade Relations During Trump 2” in M. Riddervold, G. Rosen, & J.R. Greenberg, (2026). Populism and the Future of Transatlantic Relations: Challenges and Policy Options. European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS). January 20, 2026, 128-141.

Moderator: Prof Jessica Lawrence, Senior Lecturer at the University of Essex School of Law

Jessica Lawrence is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Essex School of Law. Dr Lawrence’s research focuses on issues relating to international economic integration, including at the WTO, in regional and bilateral trade and investment agreements, and within the EU internal market. She has a particular interest in the interaction between economic and non-economic public policy goals, and in the ways in which trade and investment agreements take into account their impacts on human rights, labour, sustainable development, environmental protection, and gender. Her work often takes a critical perspective, applying tools drawn from constructivist international relations theory, post-Foucauldian governmentality studies, and other strands of post-positivist thought to examine the impact of discourses and framing devices on politics and law. Prior to joining the University of Essex, Dr Lawrence was Associate Professor at Central European University in Budapest, Hungary. She holds a PhD in Transnational Legal Studies from the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the Netherlands, and a JD in Law from the University of Georgia in the United States. In addition to her academic work, Dr Lawrence has held various positions at NGOs, think tanks, and universities in the US, EU, India, New Zealand, and Costa Rica, and continues to provide research and training for governmental and non-governmental organizations on issues related to trade and investment agreements and their impact on social policy goals.

Day 3 – Wednesday, July 8, 2026 

Theme: The EU Between the US and China: Trade, Power, and Strategic Autonomy

Strategic Autonomy, De-risking, and EU Economic Security Tools

Reuben Wong is Deputy Head of the Political Science Department at the National University of Singapore. Reuben held the first Jean Monnet Chair in Singapore (2013–2016) and was NUS’ Associate Vice-President, Global Relations (2021– 2023). His publications have focused on EU foreign policy. They include The Europeanization of French Foreign Policy: France and the EU in East Asia (Palgrave Macmillan, 2006), National and European Foreign Policies (co-edited with Christopher Hill, Routledge, 2011), and journal articles in the Cambridge Review of International Affairs, Politique Européenne, the Asia Europe Journal, The Hague Journal of Diplomacy, and the EU External Affairs Review. He has held visiting positions at Cambridge University, the LSE European Institute, the Stimson Center (Washington, D.C.), the East Asian Institute (Singapore), and Humboldt University. He consults and teaches summer school in Paris and Beijing. Reuben raises four children to help arrest Singapore’s declining total fertility rate.

Abstract: I will trace the EU’s search for strategic autonomy and how it has been challenged by both the U.S. and China.  I will also suggest how Europe could be more strategic in its dealings with the U.S. and China, and work on better understanding its own identity/interests and those of its interlocutors. 

Reading List

European Parliament (2021), EU Strategy for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific – Council conclusions (16 April 2021), in “A Stronger Europe in the World” https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-stronger-europe-in-the-world/file-indo-pacific-strategy

R. Wong (2026) “EU–US–China Security Relations”, in Riddervold, Marianne; Rosén, Guri & Greenberg, Jessica R. (eds), Populism and the Future of Transatlantic Relations: Challenges and Policy Options. European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS, January 20), pp.71-83. https://doi.org/10.55271/rp00140 | https://www.populismstudies.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DOWNLOAD-CHAPTER-3.pdf 

ECFR 2026 video- https://ecfr.eu/event/beijing-holdem-2-0-european-cards-against-chinese-coercion/

Brice Didier, The European Union’s navigation of the United States–China rivalry: muddling through, or strategizing?, International Affairs, Volume 102, Issue 3, May 2026, Pages 767–785, https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiag030⁠https://academic.oup.com/ia/article/102/3/767/8550802

DGAP (2026) Report on Allies and Partners; the future of Relations with China. on https://dgap.org/system/files/article_pdfs/DGAP%20Report_No-3_MAR-2026_15pp._1.pdf?utm_source=copilot.com

The EU’s Policy Towards Asia Amidst Changing US–China Security and Trade Dynamics

Dr. Giulio Pugliese is Lecturer in Strategic Communications at King’s College London and the Director of the EU-Asia Project at the European University Institute. He specialises in the international politics of the Asia-Pacific with a focus on Japan, China and the United States. He has presented and published on academic, policy-oriented and commercial themes, including in International Affairs, The Australian Journal of International Affairs, The Asia-Pacific Journal, East Asian Policy, Pacific Affairs, The Pacific Review, Defence Strategic Communications. He is a regular contributor to Asia Maior, Italy’s leading journal on contemporary Asian affairs, and author of Sino-Japanese Power Politics: Might, Money and Minds (Palgrave MacMillan, 2017, also available in Korean).

Dr Pugliese earned a Laurea (B.A.) in Political Science and East Asian Studies at the University of Naples, “L’Orientale” (cum laude), an M.A. in International Economics and International Relations (concentrating on East Asian Studies) at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University, graduating with Honors and passing the final exam with Distinction. He completed his Ph.D. at the University of Cambridge. He was a Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter at the Department of Chinese Studies in Heidelberg University, a Lecturer in War Studies at King’s College London, a Lecturer in Japanese Politics at the University of Oxford, and a recipient of a British Academy post-doctoral fellowship. He has held visiting scholar positions at GRIPS, Johns Hopkins University SAIS, and George Washington University. In 2023, he was awarded the Nakasone Incentive Award for his research on Japanese diplomacy.

Abstract: How best to explain the EU and member states’ quiet security and economic recalibration of relations vis-à-vis China and Asia? Reactiveness to Chinese assertiveness, the need to achieve economic security, as well as the emergence of interlinkages between the East Asian and European security theatres following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is accompanied by economic interests in what is the region that is fast becoming the locomotive of the world economy, including in its procurement market. US demand signals and the emulation of practice from local players, such as Japan, have also driven the process.  As the Transatlantic alliance faces a rupture under the second Trump administration, this lecture also probes the tenability of alternative routes to salvage Transatlantic and Indo-Pacific cooperation and engagement towards the so-called “Indo-Pacific”, suggesting potential solutions and ways to manage policy expectations.

Reading List

Angela Pennisi di Floristella and Giulio Pugliese. “The Historical Evolution of Relations between the European Union and Asia”, in Thomas Christiansen, Evi Fitriani, Emil Kirchner, and Youngah Guahk [eds.], The Palgrave Handbook of EU-Asia Relations (2nd Edition), Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan, 2026, Chapter 1.

Giulio Pugliese and Aurelio Insisa, “How to use the maximum of potential for the EU-Taiwan cooperation – what can the EU learn from the US and other actors?”, in-depth policy study requested by the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET), 26 November 2025: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EXPO_IDA(2025)754482

Giulio Pugliese, “The European Union and an ‘Indo-Pacific’ Alignment”, Asia-Pacific Review, Vol. 31 (4), 2024, pp. 17-44.

Giulio Pugliese. “Japan’s China Grand Strategy: A Blueprint for Transatlantic Players?” in Rogier E. Creemers, Silvia Menegazzi, Neysun A. Mahboubi [eds.] Transatlantic Perspectives on China, London and New York: Routledge, 2026, Chapter 6.

Giulio Pugliese short interview – March 2026, Japan and Europe in the Face of US-China Geopolitical Rivalry https://cgpbalancingact.substack.com/p/japan-and-europe-in-the-face-of-us

Anita Tusor is a PhD Student in International Relations at Charles University, Prague, specializing in security and strategic studies. She holds a Double Master’s Degree in Asian and European Affairs from King’s College London and Renmin University of China, as well as an MA in Applied Linguistics and a BA in Hungarian and Chinese Studies. Her professional experience includes research and policy work with NATO Allied Command Transformation, the Institute of International Relations in Prague, the European Center for Populism Studies, and the European Values Center for Security Policy. Her research interests focus on Chinese cognitive warfare, foreign malign influence operations, populist constitutionalism, and Asia-Pacific security.

 

Day 4 – Thursday, July 9, 2026

Theme: The Indo-Pacific Turn: EU Trade Strategy in a Shifting Global Centre

US Indo-Pacific Strategy and Its Trade Implications

Kristi Govella is Associate Professor of Japanese Politics and International Relations at the University of Oxford and Senior Adviser and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Dr. Govella specializes in the intersection of economics, security, and governance, with a focus on the Indo-Pacific region and Japan. Her research has examined topics such as economic statecraft, government-business relations, regional institutional architecture, military alliances, non-traditional security, and the governance of the global commons. Prior to joining the University of Oxford, Dr. Govella held positions at the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Harvard University, and the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, Berkeley.

Abstract: Over the past two decades, the United States has intensified its focus on Asia due to the region’s strategic importance for both economics and security. In 2011, the “pivot to Asia” was announced, and during the course of the Obama, Trump 1.0, and Biden administrations, the U.S. gradually redefined the region as the “Indo-Pacific” and attempted to enhance its engagement. However, the role of trade in U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy has become increasingly complex, as “America first” concerns about trade deficits, reshoring, and industrial revitalization have gradually weakened the economic pillar of U.S. regional policy. This lecture will examine the evolution of U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy with particular attention to the changing role of economic engagement and implications for regional and global trade.

Reading List

U.S. Department of State, “A Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Advancing a Shared Vision” (November 2019). Available at https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Free-and-Open-Indo-Pacific-4Nov2019.pdf

The White House, “Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States” (February 2022). Available at https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/U.S.-Indo-Pacific-Strategy.pdf

The White House, “National Security Strategy of the United States of America” (November 2025). Available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

Andrea Carteny is a Professor at Sapienza University of Rome, Italy, where he teaches International Relations History, Nationalisms and Minorities at the SARAS (History Anthropology Religions Arts Spectacle) Department. He is a Fullbright Alumni and Director of the Hungarian Studies Review (RSU) and he focused his research on national minorities, nationalities and nationalisms in Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean area during the 19th- 20th Centuries. He is a member of the Italian Society of International History (SISI) and a participant in the main conventions and conferences on nation studies, national minorities and nationalisms history. He is author of many articles and books in this field, among them the editions Il Mar Nero. Identità nazionali e dinamiche di sicurezza (with G. Natalizia, 2023), Il Pan-nazionalismo in Eurasia e il mito del Turan (with P. Pizzolo, 2023), A New Continent Called Europe (2005), and the monographs La questione transilvana nel periodo interbellico (2020) and Dal micro-nazionalismo all’Europa (2011).

EU-Japan Relations and Populism

Axel Berkofsky is Associate Professor at the University of Pavia, Italy and Senior Fellow/Senior Advisory at the Asia Centre at the Milan-based Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale (ISPI). Axel Berkofsky is also Chairman of the Selection Committee and Vice-Chairman Executive Committee of the Canon Foundation Europe, Executive Committee Board Member at the Stockholm-based European Japan Advanced Research Network (EJARN) and Research Affiliate at the European Institute of Japanese Studies at the Stockholm School of Economics. Previously, Dr. Berkofsky was Senior Policy Analyst, Associate Policy Analyst at the Brussels-based European Policy Centre (EPC) and Research Fellow at the Brussels-based European Institute for Asian Studies (EIAS). At the EPC in Brussels, Axel Berkofsky has – in his capacity as the Director of the EPC’s former EU-Asia programme – worked and interacted on a de facto daily basis with EU officials, policymakers and diplomats. Furthermore, Dr. Berkofsky has in the recent years been involved – as scholar, researcher and moderator – in numerous panels, workshops and seminars on EU-Japan relations, EU-China relations and EU-Asia relations. In his capacity as Board Member of the Stockholm-based Europen Japan Advanced Research Network (EJARN), Dr. Berkofsky has since 2008 co-organized numerous conferences, seminars and workshops on EU-Japan relations at numerous think tanks and universities in Europe and Japan. Dr. Berkofsky is a fluent Japanese speaker and has altogether lived three years in Japan. Furthermore, Dr. Berkofsky has taught and lectured at numerous universities and think tanks in Japan, Mainland China, Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, The Philippines, Singapore etc. In addition, Axel Berkofsky has for several years worked as freelance journalist at the Hong Kong-based Asia Times. Axel Berkofsky has published and edited numerous books and has authored and published more than 250 journal articles, newspaper articles, essays, policy papers and policy briefings. Prof. Berkofsky is a regular consultant, speaker and presenter at conferences, seminars and workshops organized and sponsored by the European Union (EU).

Dr. Sebastien Goulard is the manager of Cooperans, a public affairs and project management consultancy specialized in EU-Asia connectivity projects. Sebastien Goulard is also the editor of the Global Connectivities platform which aims to analyse the development of corridors around the world. During his doctoral studies at EHESS (School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences), Paris Sebastien Goulard participated in several European research programs dealing with sustainable urbanization in China. Sebastien Goulard holds a BA (hons) degree in international politics (ESE, Nottingham Trent University), a MA degree in international relations (IRIS, France) and a MA degree in social sciences (EHESS).

Day 5 – Friday, July 10, 2026

Theme: The Future of EU Trade Power: Between Fragmentation and Leadership

Can the EU lead? Policy Tools, Regulatory Power, and Global Influence

Prof. Dr. Markus Kotzur, LL.M. (Duke Univ.) studied law in Freiburg and Bayreuth. In 1993, he passed the First State Examination and subsequently obtained the title “Legum Magister” (LL.M.) at Duke University (North Carolina). In 2002, after completing his legal traineeship, he received his doctorate from the University of Bayreuth. This was followed in 2002 by his habilitation with a thesis on “Cross-Border Cooperation in Europe”. In 2005, he was appointed Professor of European and International Law and Public Law at the University of Leipzig. Since 2011, he has been head of the Master’s programme “European and European Legal Studies” and since 2018 president at the Europa-Kolleg Hamburg. Since 2012, he has held the professorship for Public Law, European and International Law at the University of Hamburg and is Deputy Director of the Institute for International Affairs. From October 2015 to March 2020 he was vice Dean for Studies and Teaching and since April 2020 Vice Dean for International relations of the Faculty.

Abstract: This lecture ties in with the current debate surrounding the so-called ‘strategic autonomy’ of the European Union. It aims to critically examine, on the one hand, whether the EU possesses the political capacity to act autonomously in strategic matters and, on the other hand, whether the constitutional framework of primary Union law provides the necessary normative foundations for this. In particular, the question will be raised as to whether the Union’s self-description as a ‘normative power’ is tenable and is underpinned by appropriate policy tools. Finally, a possible transformation from ‘normative power’ to ‘military power’ will be examined from a legal perspective.

Camille Nessel holds a Ph.D. in political science and is currently a lecturer at the Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), teaching within the Centre d’étude de la vie politique (Cevipol). Her research focuses on EU perceptions in trade, particularly regarding the EU’s relations with Indonesia and Vietnam, as well as on the “China threat” construction in EU economic security strategy. Camille was awarded a doctoral fellowship from FNRS and is now preparing a postdoctoral project on the construction of the “China threat” in EU economic policies. Having gained research experience in Southeast Asia while living in both Indonesia and Vietnam, she has acquired valuable expertise in the region. She has also worked for the European Commission, served as a political advisor for the Chair of the International Trade Committee in the European Parliament, and gained experience in the NGO sector, combining theory and practice in her teaching and research.

EU Commission.

ECPS Academy Summer School — Prof. Markus Kotzur: Can the EU lead? Policy Tools, Regulatory Power, and Global Influence

Professor Markus Kotzur’s lecture explored one of the defining questions of contemporary European integration: can the European Union translate its regulatory influence into genuine geopolitical leadership? Rejecting conventional measures of power centered solely on military capability, he argued that the EU’s comparative advantage lies in its constitutional foundations, legal authority, and capacity to shape global norms through regulatory governance. Examining concepts such as Normative Power Europe, the Brussels Effect, and strategic autonomy, the lecture demonstrated how Europe’s economic strength, legal order, and institutional resilience remain essential assets amid intensifying geopolitical competition. Combining European constitutional law with international relations and political economy, Professor Kotzur offered a compelling vision of an EU capable of reconciling values with strategic responsibility in a fragmented international order.

Reported by ECPS Staff

The concluding lecture of the ECPS Academy Summer School 2026, held under the overarching theme Europe Between Oceans: The EU in the Age of Geoeconomics, Populism, and Strategic Competition,” addressed one of the most consequential questions confronting European integration today: Can the European Union exercise genuine geopolitical leadership in an increasingly fragmented international order? While much contemporary debate focuses on Europe’s economic competitiveness, military preparedness, or strategic autonomy, the lecture by Professor Markus Kotzur, Professor of European and International Law at the University of Hamburg and Vice Dean for International Relations, invited participants to examine a more fundamental issue. Before asking whether the European Union possesses sufficient power to lead, it is necessary to clarify what leadership itself means for a political entity that is neither a sovereign state nor a conventional international organization. Drawing upon constitutional law, international law, and European integration studies, Professor Kotzur argued that the future of European leadership depends not merely on accumulating material capabilities but on reconciling legal legitimacy, regulatory influence, political integration, and strategic purpose within a rapidly evolving geopolitical environment. 

The session was introduced by Dr. Camille Nessel, who situated the discussion within the European Union’s broader geopolitical transformation initiated during Ursula von der Leyen’s first Commission. Recalling von der Leyen’s ambition to create a “geopolitical Commission” in 2019, Dr. Nessel explained how this initiative fundamentally altered scholarly and policy debates surrounding the European Union’s external role. Whereas previous decades had largely conceived European integration through the lenses of market integration and regulatory governance, recent developments increasingly emphasize economic security, strategic partnerships, critical raw materials, and geopolitical competition. Trade policy, environmental regulation, and technological governance have progressively become instruments of geopolitical influence rather than merely vehicles of economic integration. In this context, concepts such as open strategic autonomy, economic security, and regulatory sovereignty have emerged at the center of European policymaking, raising new questions about how the Union can exercise influence while remaining committed to multilateralism and the constitutional values upon which European integration has historically rested. Dr. Nessel’s introduction effectively framed the lecture by illustrating that Europe’s external policies can no longer be understood independently of broader geopolitical transformations, particularly the rise of China, renewed great-power competition, and increasing skepticism toward globalization. 

Can the European Union Lead? Reconceptualizing Power, Political Community, and Global Actorship

Professor Markus Kotzur.
Professor Markus Kotzur is a Professor of European and International Law at the University of Hamburg and Vice Dean for International Relations.

Building upon this context, Professor Kotzur proposed that discussions of European leadership often begin from an inadequate premise. Much contemporary commentary measures geopolitical influence primarily through traditional indicators of state power—military capability, coercive capacity, or hegemonic dominance. Such perspectives, strongly associated with realist approaches to international relations, inevitably portray the European Union as structurally disadvantaged when compared with major powers such as the United States or China. Yet Professor Kotzur argued that this comparison overlooks the Union’s distinctive political character. Rather than attempting to evaluate the European Union as though it were an ordinary nation-state, he suggested conceptualizing it as a political community—a unique form of political organization that transcends the conventional distinction between sovereign state and international organization. This conceptual shift, he maintained, fundamentally alters how European leadership should be understood.

For Professor Kotzur, describing the European Union as a political community emphasizes that European integration extends far beyond economic cooperation or market regulation. The Union embodies an ongoing process of political integration grounded in shared constitutional values, institutional cooperation, and collective decision-making. Consequently, Europe’s capacity for leadership cannot be reduced solely to military capabilities or traditional notions of sovereignty. Instead, its influence derives from the interaction of legal authority, regulatory capacity, democratic legitimacy, and institutional resilience. The European Union therefore exercises a form of political leadership fundamentally different from that of conventional great powers—a leadership rooted less in coercion than in governance, coordination, and the production of international norms. 

This argument naturally led Professor Kotzur to distinguish between different conceptions of power itself. Realist perspectives traditionally associate leadership with material capabilities, particularly military strength and the ability to impose outcomes through coercive means. Judged according to these criteria alone, the European Union undoubtedly faces significant limitations. Defense remains primarily the responsibility of individual member states, while security has historically depended upon NATO and, above all, the strategic umbrella provided by the United States. Compared with the military capabilities of Washington or Beijing, the European Union possesses only limited autonomous coercive capacity. Yet Professor Kotzur cautioned participants against equating these limitations with geopolitical irrelevance. Power, he argued, also assumes regulatory, legal, institutional, and normative forms that have become increasingly important within an interconnected global economy.

Indeed, one of the lecture’s central themes was that the European Union has historically developed precisely these alternative forms of influence. Rather than aspiring to classical hegemonic dominance, Europe has sought to shape international behavior by establishing legal standards, promoting regulatory convergence, and embedding international cooperation within institutional frameworks. This distinctive mode of influence reflects the constitutional foundations of the Union itself. Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union, which enshrines democracy, human rights, and the rule of law as the Union’s foundational values, provides not only an internal constitutional framework but also the normative basis for Europe’s external engagement. In Professor Kotzur’s view, these legal principles have enabled the European Union to become a global standard-setter whose influence often extends far beyond its territorial borders.

At the same time, the lecturer acknowledged that the international environment sustaining this model has changed profoundly. For much of the post-Cold War period, a functional division of labor characterized transatlantic relations. While the United States largely assumed responsibility for military security through NATO, the European Union concentrated on economic integration, regulatory governance, and the promotion of multilateral norms. This arrangement allowed Europe to exercise considerable international influence without developing equivalent military capabilities. However, shifting geopolitical realities—including Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, intensifying strategic competition with China, and growing uncertainty regarding American security commitments under Donald Trump’s second presidency—have increasingly exposed the limitations of this model. Europe can no longer assume that military security will remain permanently outsourced while it focuses exclusively on regulatory leadership.

These developments, Professor Kotzur suggested, require a fundamental reconsideration of European leadership itself. Rather than abandoning its normative foundations, the European Union must determine how legal authority, economic strength, and strategic capability can be combined within a coherent geopolitical strategy. Leadership in today’s international order demands more than the capacity to regulate markets; it increasingly requires resilience, institutional coordination, technological innovation, and credible security capabilities. Yet Europe’s comparative advantage continues to reside in the constitutional and legal traditions that distinguish it from more conventional great powers. The challenge therefore lies not in replacing normative power with military power but in integrating both within a broader conception of strategic actorship.

By framing the discussion in this manner, Professor Kotzur established the analytical foundation for the remainder of the lecture. The central question was no longer simply whether Europe possesses sufficient power to compete with other global actors, but whether its unique combination of law, regulation, political integration, and democratic legitimacy can provide the basis for effective geopolitical leadership in an era increasingly defined by strategic rivalry and geoeconomic competition. This perspective would subsequently guide his examination of the European Union’s normative influence, the Brussels Effect, and the evolving concept of strategic autonomy. 

Normative Power Europe, the Brussels Effect, and the Evolution of Strategic Autonomy

European Union flags against European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

Having established that the European Union should be understood as a distinctive political community rather than a conventional nation-state, Professor Kotzur turned to the sources of Europe’s international influence. If the Union lacks the military capabilities traditionally associated with great-power politics, how has it nevertheless managed to shape global governance and international economic relations? Professor Kotzur argued that the answer lies in Europe’s longstanding role as a normative and regulatory power, a form of influence that derives not from coercion but from the ability to establish legal standards that increasingly structure international political and economic behavior. This regulatory capacity, he suggested, remains one of the European Union’s greatest strategic assets, even as the geopolitical environment becomes more competitive and uncertain.

Central to Professor Kotzur’s argument was the concept of Normative Power Europe, which has occupied a prominent place in European integration scholarship for more than two decades. Unlike traditional powers that project influence primarily through military or economic coercion, the European Union has historically sought to shape international conduct through the diffusion of legal norms, constitutional principles, and regulatory standards. Democracy, human rights, the rule of law, and sustainable development constitute not merely internal constitutional values but also external objectives guiding European foreign relations. According to Professor Kotzur, these principles provide the normative foundation upon which the Union’s international influence has long rested. Rather than compelling other actors to follow European preferences, the Union seeks to encourage convergence by making adherence to these standards increasingly advantageous for states wishing to deepen political or economic cooperation with Europe.

Professor Kotzur explained that this normative influence operates through two complementary mechanisms. The first ispositive conditionality, whereby closer cooperation with the European Union—including association agreements, neighborhood partnerships, accession negotiations, and preferential trade arrangements—is linked to the adoption of European legal and constitutional standards. Countries aspiring to strengthen relations with the Union are encouraged to improve democratic governance, judicial independence, human rights protection, and the rule of law. This “more for more” approach reflects the belief that regulatory convergence strengthens both political cooperation and legal certainty. In this sense, European integration has historically functioned not only as an economic project but also as an instrument for promoting constitutional transformation beyond the Union’s borders.

The second mechanism operates through market access. Access to the European Union’s vast internal market increasingly depends upon compliance with European regulatory requirements. Firms wishing to export products, provide services, or invest within the European market must satisfy standards relating to product safety, environmental protection, digital governance, consumer rights, competition policy, and increasingly artificial intelligence. Compliance therefore becomes not merely a legal obligation but an economic necessity. Through this process, European regulations frequently extend far beyond the Union’s territorial jurisdiction, influencing commercial practices across global markets without relying upon traditional forms of extraterritorial coercion.

This phenomenon, Professor Kotzur observed, is most commonly described as the Brussels Effect. Building upon the influential scholarship surrounding this concept, he explained that the European Union’s enormous market size, combined with its sophisticated regulatory framework, often incentivizes multinational corporations to adopt European standards globally rather than maintaining separate regulatory systems for different jurisdictions. Because complying with a single high regulatory standard is often more efficient than producing multiple versions of the same product, firms frequently extend European rules to operations beyond Europe itself. Consequently, regulations adopted in Brussels may shape business practices in Asia, Latin America, Africa, and North America despite the absence of formal international legal obligations.

Professor Kotzur highlighted several contemporary illustrations of this regulatory influence. The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) fundamentally reshaped global approaches to privacy and digital governance by establishing one of the world’s most comprehensive data protection regimes. Similarly, the Artificial Intelligence Act seeks to position Europe at the forefront of regulating emerging technologies through a risk-based legal framework that may influence legislative developments far beyond the European Union. Environmental policies associated with the European Green Deal, including sustainability standards and climate-related regulations, likewise demonstrate how domestic European legislation increasingly generates significant international repercussions. These examples illustrate that regulatory power has become an important dimension of contemporary geopolitics, particularly as technological innovation and global supply chains become progressively integrated.

Yet Professor Kotzur also emphasized that the Brussels Effect should not be understood simply as a technocratic process driven by legal expertise. Rather, it reflects a broader transformation in the relationship between markets and political authority. Regulation itself has become an instrument of geopolitical influence. By determining the conditions under which access to one of the world’s largest consumer markets is granted, the European Union exercises considerable leverage over international commercial behavior. This capacity enables Europe to project influence internationally even where its military capabilities remain comparatively limited. Regulatory governance thus constitutes an alternative form of power, rooted in economic interdependence rather than territorial coercion.

Nevertheless, Professor Kotzur argued that recent geopolitical developments increasingly challenge the sufficiency of normative power alone. The relative stability that once enabled Europe to rely primarily upon regulatory influence has gradually eroded under the pressures of great-power competition, technological rivalry, and economic coercion. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, intensifying strategic competition between the United States and China, and growing uncertainty surrounding transatlantic relations have all demonstrated that legal standards alone cannot guarantee geopolitical resilience. The European Union therefore faces the difficult task of preserving its identity as a normative power while simultaneously developing greater strategic capacity.

This challenge has given increasing prominence to the concept of strategic autonomy, which Professor Kotzur approached through both linguistic and political analysis. Returning to the Greek origins of the concept, he explained that autonomia signifies the capacity to live according to one’s own laws, while strategy refers to the ability to lead and direct collective action. Strategic autonomy therefore implies far more than economic independence or military capability. It represents the capacity of a political community to formulate and pursue its own objectives independently while remaining faithful to its underlying constitutional values. Europe, in this conception, seeks neither isolation nor disengagement but the ability to make sovereign strategic decisions without excessive dependence upon external actors.

Importantly, Professor Kotzur deliberately omitted the increasingly fashionable adjective “open” from his presentation’s title in order to stimulate critical reflection. Rather than accepting “open strategic autonomy” as an uncontested policy objective, he encouraged participants to consider whether genuine strategic autonomy can remain fully open under conditions of intensifying geopolitical rivalry. This question reflects one of the European Union’s most fundamental contemporary dilemmas. Europe seeks simultaneously to preserve openness, defend multilateralism, strengthen economic resilience, and reduce excessive strategic dependencies. Reconciling these objectives requires careful balancing between economic integration and geopolitical prudence.

By the end of this section, Professor Kotzur had demonstrated that Europe’s future leadership cannot depend exclusively upon either normative influence or strategic power in isolation. The Brussels Effect continues to provide the European Union with remarkable global regulatory reach, yet contemporary geopolitical realities increasingly demand that this regulatory capacity be complemented by greater strategic resilience. Rather than abandoning its identity as a community founded upon law and multilateralism, Europe must learn to integrate regulatory influence with a more comprehensive understanding of geopolitical actorship. In doing so, the Union seeks to transform legal authority into a broader form of strategic leadership capable of navigating an international order that is becoming simultaneously more interconnected and more contested.

From Outsourced Security to Strategic Responsibility: Institutional Limits and the Future of European Defense

Photo: Pavlo Lys.

Having examined the European Union’s regulatory influence and the conceptual foundations of strategic autonomy, Professor Kotzur shifted the discussion toward one of the Union’s most persistent structural challenges: the relationship between legal competence, political will, and military capability. Rather than delivering a purely expository lecture, Professor Kotzur transformed this section into an interactive dialogue, inviting participants to reflect upon whether the existing constitutional framework of the European Union is capable of supporting meaningful geopolitical leadership. Their questions and observations became an integral component of the discussion, illustrating precisely the kind of interdisciplinary debate that the ECPS Academy Summer School seeks to foster.

Professor Kotzur began by emphasizing that discussions surrounding European defense cannot be separated from the constitutional architecture established by the EU Treaties. Unlike sovereign states, whose governments exercise inherent authority across the full spectrum of foreign and security policy, the European Union operates according to the principle of conferral, whereby it may act only in areas where competencies have been explicitly transferred by its member states. This legal principle, fundamental to European constitutional law, continues to shape every debate concerning the Union’s geopolitical ambitions. While economic integration has become highly supranationalized, foreign policy and defense remain areas in which national governments retain extensive authority. Consequently, the question confronting Europe is not simply whether it desires greater strategic autonomy, but whether its constitutional framework currently permits such ambitions to be fully realized.

Rather than providing an immediate answer, Professor Kotzur invited participants to consider whether the existing treaty framework already contains sufficient legal instruments for the European Union to become a more significant geopolitical actor or whether meaningful strategic autonomy would ultimately require comprehensive treaty reform. This interactive approach encouraged students from diverse disciplinary backgrounds to engage directly with questions that are often confined to specialist legal scholarship.

Several participants offered observations that significantly enriched the discussion. One participant suggested that European defense integration had historically remained underdeveloped precisely because military security had long been outsourced to the United States through NATO. As long as Washington guaranteed Europe’s security, the incentives to construct genuinely autonomous European defense capabilities remained relatively weak. Professor Kotzur broadly agreed with this historical assessment. He recalled that attempts to establish European defense structures date back to the earliest years of post-war integration but repeatedly encountered political resistance. One recurring concern was that independent European military structures might duplicate—or even weaken—the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Consequently, NATO became the principal framework for collective defense, while European integration concentrated largely upon economic and political cooperation.

At the same time, Professor Kotzur stressed that the situation has evolved considerably since the adoption of the Treaty of Lisbon, which significantly expanded the legal foundations for cooperation in foreign and security policy. Although the Treaties do not currently permit the creation of a fully-fledged European army, they nevertheless provide important mechanisms through which member states can deepen defense cooperation. The Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) establish institutional frameworks for joint action, while initiatives such as Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) demonstrate that considerable progress remains possible without immediate treaty revision. From a legal perspective, therefore, the European Union already possesses greater flexibility than is often assumed, even if important constitutional limitations remain.

The discussion subsequently broadened to consider whether recent geopolitical developments have fundamentally altered the political incentives surrounding European defense integration. Professor Kotzur suggested that two historic developments have acted as powerful catalysts. The first was Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which fundamentally transformed European perceptions of security by demonstrating that large-scale interstate war had returned to the European continent. The second was the return of Donald Trump to the American presidency, which further intensified doubts regarding the long-term reliability of the United States as Europe’s principal security guarantor. Together, these developments have accelerated debates over strategic autonomy far more rapidly than decades of academic discussion ever achieved.

Drawing upon Germany’s own experience, Professor Kotzur pointed to the profound transformation in domestic political attitudes toward defense spending. The concept of Zeitenwende, introduced following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, symbolizes a broader shift in German political culture regarding military responsibility. Political parties traditionally associated with pacifism, most notably the Green Party, have increasingly accepted that preserving peace may require greater investment in defense capabilities. This evolution illustrates how external geopolitical shocks can reshape democratic consensus, generating political support for policies that previously appeared unimaginable. What had once seemed politically controversial has increasingly become regarded as a necessary response to changing strategic realities.

Yet Professor Kotzur cautioned that military capability alone cannot create effective European leadership. Institutional legitimacy remains equally important. Another participant questioned whether Europe’s remarkable political diversity—comprising twenty-seven democracies with distinct historical experiences, domestic electorates, and strategic priorities—might itself constitute an obstacle to coherent foreign policy. Professor Kotzur acknowledged this challenge while rejecting the conclusion that diversity necessarily precludes collective action. The European Union’s legal personality under international law, established by the Treaty of Lisbon, enables it to conclude international agreements, participate in international organizations, and exercise meaningful diplomatic influence. Although foreign policy frequently requires consensus among member states, this institutional complexity should not be mistaken for institutional incapacity.

The discussion also addressed the politically sensitive question of hegemonic leadership. Professor Kotzur noted that, unlike the United States or China, European political discourse has historically regarded the very concept of hegemony with considerable suspicion, reflecting the continent’s experience of imperialism, nationalism, and colonial domination. Yet participants observed that even the European Union’s normative ambitions contain elements of hegemonic influence insofar as Europe seeks to encourage—or at times require—other countries to adopt its legal and regulatory standards. Professor Kotzur accepted this observation but distinguished between coercive hegemony and normative leadership. The European Union’s objective, he argued, should not be domination but persuasion, exercising influence through law, cooperation, and mutually beneficial partnerships rather than through military coercion.

Questions concerning Germany’s expanding military role further highlighted the complexity of European defense integration. Participants noted that increasing German defense expenditures inevitably evoke historical sensitivities among neighboring countries. Professor Kotzur acknowledged these concerns but suggested that today’s context differs fundamentally from earlier periods of European history. Germany’s rearmament takes place within dense multilateral institutions—NATO, the European Union, and an extensive network of constitutional safeguards—that substantially reduce the risks traditionally associated with unilateral military expansion. Contemporary defense integration therefore represents not a return to historical rivalries but an attempt to strengthen collective European security within established democratic frameworks.

Ultimately, this interactive exchange illustrated one of the lecture’s central insights: Europe’s future as a geopolitical actor depends not simply upon acquiring greater military capabilities but upon successfully integrating constitutional legitimacy, democratic support, institutional coordination, and strategic purpose. The European Union already possesses important legal foundations for deeper security cooperation, yet translating these possibilities into effective geopolitical leadership requires sustained political commitment from its member states. Strategic autonomy, Professor Kotzur suggested, is therefore neither exclusively a legal project nor solely a military one. It represents an ongoing constitutional and political process through which Europe seeks gradually to assume greater responsibility for its own security while remaining faithful to the principles of democracy, multilateralism, and the rule of law that have long defined the European project.

Europe Between Values and Power: Strengthening the EU’s Global Leadership in an Era of Geopolitical Fragmentation

EU-AI
The European Union’s AI Act introduces restrictions on high-risk artificial intelligence applications and requires greater transparency from companies regarding data use and algorithmic practices. Photo: Dreamstime.

In the final section of his lecture, Professor Kotzur moved beyond diagnosing the European Union’s geopolitical challenges to outlining a constructive vision of how the Union might strengthen its global leadership without abandoning the constitutional principles that have long defined the European project. Rather than advocating a radical transformation into a traditional military power, Professor Kotzur argued that Europe’s future influence depends upon building strategically upon its existing strengths while adapting to an international environment increasingly characterized by geopolitical rivalry, technological competition, economic coercion, and the erosion of multilateral institutions. His concluding reflections therefore sought to reconcile realism with legal idealism, arguing that effective European leadership requires neither the abandonment of normative values nor naïve reliance upon them alone, but rather a careful integration of power and principle.

Central to Professor Kotzur’s concluding argument was the proposition that the European Union should “strengthen its strengths.” Throughout the history of European integration, the Union’s greatest comparative advantage has not been military capability but economic integration, regulatory governance, and legal certainty. Attempting to imitate the geopolitical behavior of traditional great powers would therefore be both unrealistic and strategically counterproductive. Instead, Europe should continue to capitalize upon the assets that have already made it one of the world’s most influential political actors: its single market, its sophisticated regulatory framework, its institutional stability, and its capacity to shape international standards. These resources remain significant sources of geopolitical influence even within an increasingly competitive international system.

Accordingly, Professor Kotzur argued that revitalizing multilateral trade should remain one of the European Union’s foremost strategic priorities. While acknowledging the growing dysfunction of the World Trade Organization (WTO)—particularly the paralysis of its dispute-settlement mechanism—he maintained that Europe possesses both the credibility and the economic weight necessary to champion the renewal of rules-based international commerce. The European Union’s continued commitment to reducing barriers to trade, supporting predictable legal frameworks, and defending multilateral economic governance reflects not only economic interests but also broader constitutional values rooted in openness, cooperation, and legal certainty. In an era when many major powers increasingly employ tariffs, sanctions, and industrial policy as geopolitical instruments, Europe’s defense of an organized multilateral trading system constitutes both a strategic necessity and an expression of its normative identity.

At the same time, Professor Kotzur rejected any suggestion that Europe should distance itself fundamentally from the United States despite recent political tensions. Although the return of Donald Trump and growing uncertainty surrounding American foreign policy have accelerated debates over strategic autonomy, transatlantic relations, he argued, remain an indispensable pillar of European security and prosperity. What requires reconsideration is not the partnership itself but its internal balance. Europe should assume greater responsibility for its own defense while preserving the broader Atlantic alliance. In this sense, strategic autonomy complements rather than replaces transatlantic cooperation. A stronger European defense capability would ultimately reinforce NATO by enabling a more balanced distribution of responsibilities between European allies and the United States. Strategic autonomy should therefore be understood as a process of maturation rather than separation.

Professor Kotzur likewise emphasized that Europe’s geopolitical credibility increasingly depends upon technological innovation and industrial competitiveness. Regulatory leadership alone will prove insufficient if Europe gradually loses its capacity to innovate in emerging sectors. Artificial intelligence, semiconductors, digital infrastructure, renewable technologies, and advanced manufacturing have become decisive arenas of international competition. Should Europe fall behind technologically, its ability to establish global standards through instruments such as the AI Act or environmental regulation will inevitably diminish. Normative influence cannot be sustained indefinitely without corresponding scientific, technological, and economic capacity. Consequently, investment in innovation represents not merely an economic policy but a strategic imperative essential to maintaining Europe’s long-term geopolitical relevance.

Environmental leadership occupied a similarly prominent place within Professor Kotzur’s concluding reflections. The European Green Deal, together with the broader objective of achieving climate neutrality, exemplifies the European Union’s aspiration to combine economic modernization with global environmental responsibility. Yet Professor Kotzur cautioned that successful climate leadership requires greater sensitivity toward historical inequalities and the needs of developing countries. Drawing upon principles of international environmental law, particularly the doctrine of common but differentiated responsibilities, he argued that industrialized European states bear special responsibilities in supporting sustainable development across the Global South. Financial assistance, technological cooperation, and equitable climate partnerships are therefore indispensable if European environmental policies are to retain international legitimacy rather than being perceived as protectionist or neo-colonial instruments.

This emphasis on partnership naturally extended to Professor Kotzur’s discussion of the Global South. One of the lecture’s most forward-looking arguments concerned the need for Europe to diversify its international relationships beyond its traditional geopolitical partnerships. If strategic autonomy ultimately seeks to reduce excessive dependence upon any single external actor, the European Union must cultivate broader and more balanced global networks. Emerging economies in India, Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia should therefore be viewed not merely as markets but as long-term strategic partners capable of contributing to a more resilient and diversified international order. Agreements such as the EU–Mercosur trade agreement, although politically controversial, illustrate the broader strategic logic underpinning this approach. Similarly, Africa’s rapidly expanding population and economic potential present opportunities for mutually beneficial cooperation founded upon equality rather than paternalism. Professor Kotzur stressed that such partnerships require honest engagement with Europe’s colonial legacy while simultaneously focusing upon future-oriented cooperation based on mutual respect and shared interests.

Importantly, Professor Kotzur argued that Europe’s normative commitments should continue to shape these partnerships, albeit in a more dialogical manner. Rather than presenting democracy, human rights, and the rule of law as unilateral prescriptions imposed upon others, the European Union should promote these principles through sustained dialogue and cooperative engagement. Such an approach recognizes that constitutional values remain central to the European project while acknowledging the increasingly pluralistic nature of contemporary international politics. Europe’s credibility, he suggested, depends less upon moral preaching than upon demonstrating that liberal democracy, legal certainty, and multilateral cooperation provide practical advantages in addressing common global challenges.

As the lecture drew to a close, Professor Kotzur returned to the question posed in its opening moments: Can the European Union lead? His answer was neither unequivocally optimistic nor unduly pessimistic. Europe possesses significant assets—economic strength, regulatory influence, constitutional legitimacy, and institutional resilience—that continue to distinguish it from other global actors. Yet these advantages cannot be taken for granted. Sustaining European leadership will require continued investment in innovation, stronger defense capabilities, renewed commitment to multilateralism, and deeper partnerships with emerging regions of the world. Above all, the European Union must avoid the false choice between values and power. Its greatest comparative advantage lies precisely in its ability to combine legal legitimacy with strategic purpose, transforming constitutional principles into instruments of effective international leadership.

Taken together, Professor Kotzur’s lecture offered a sophisticated synthesis of European constitutional law, international relations, and geopolitical strategy. By demonstrating that leadership in the twenty-first century increasingly depends upon the interaction of regulatory authority, economic resilience, technological innovation, institutional legitimacy, and strategic responsibility, he challenged simplistic conceptions of power based solely upon military capabilities. Instead, he argued that Europe’s future role in an increasingly fragmented international order will depend upon its capacity to strengthen its existing advantages while adapting pragmatically to new geopolitical realities. In doing so, the lecture encapsulated one of the central messages of the ECPS Academy Summer School: that Europe’s place “between oceans” will ultimately be determined not only by external competition but also by its own ability to reconcile openness with resilience, values with interests, and normative ambition with geopolitical responsibility.

Eu-Japan flags.

ECPS Academy Summer School — Prof. Axel Berkofsky: EU-Japan Relations and Populism

Japan has long been regarded as an outlier in comparative studies of populism, distinguished by political stability, Liberal Democratic Party dominance, and limited immigration. In this thought-provoking lecture, Professor Axel Berkofsky challenged that conventional wisdom, arguing that Japan has entered its own delayed populist moment. Examining the rise of the Sanseito party, demographic decline, labor shortages, identity politics, and the evolution of conservative nationalism, he demonstrated how structural economic pressures and political discourse are reshaping Japanese democracy. The lecture also assessed the resilience of EU–Japan relations, highlighting the enduring importance of the Economic Partnership Agreement despite growing geopolitical uncertainty. Combining comparative politics with international political economy, Professor Berkofsky offered a nuanced framework for understanding populism beyond its traditional European context. 

Reported by ECPS Staff

While much scholarly and policy attention has focused on the rise of populism across Europe and North America, Japan has long appeared to constitute a notable exception to this global political trend. For decades, the country’s remarkable political stability, the electoral dominance of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and its comparatively homogeneous social structure appeared to insulate it from the anti-establishment movements that transformed politics elsewhere. Yet recent developments suggest that this exceptionalism may no longer hold. The emergence of overtly populist and anti-immigration political actors, coupled with growing public anxiety over demographic decline, economic stagnation, inflation, and national identity, indicates that Japan is increasingly experiencing many of the political tensions reshaping advanced democracies more broadly. 

Against this backdrop, the eighth lecture of the ECPS Academy Summer School 2026, held under the overarching theme Europe Between Oceans: The EU in the Age of Geoeconomics, Populism, and Strategic Competition,” explored the evolving relationship between domestic political transformation and international economic cooperation through the lens of EU–Japan relations and populism. Delivered by Professor Axel Berkofsky, Full Professor at the University of Pavia and Co-Head of the Asia Centre at the Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale (ISPI), the lecture combined comparative politics, international political economy, and East Asian studies to examine whether Japan is witnessing the emergence of its own variant of populism and how these developments may shape one of the European Union’s most important strategic partnerships in Asia. 

Japan’s Late Encounter with Populism

Professor Axel Berkofsky.
Professor Axel Berkofsky is Full Professor at the University of Pavia and Co-Head of the Asia Centre at the Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale (ISPI).

The session was introduced by Dr. Sébastien Goulard, Manager of Cooperans and an expert on EU–Asia connectivity projects, who situated the lecture within the broader comparative study of populism. He observed that while populism has become a defining feature of European politics over the past three decades—manifesting itself through movements ranging from Brexit in the United Kingdom to the electoral successes of radical-right and radical-left parties across the continent—its development in Asia has followed a more uneven trajectory. Dr. Goulard briefly pointed to examples such as Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in India and Rodrigo Duterte’s presidency in the Philippines before posing the central question that would animate the lecture: Does Japan, long regarded as politically exceptional, now face its own populist moment? Equally important, he asked whether any rise of Japanese populism could affect the EU–Japan partnership, particularly given that many populist movements elsewhere have been deeply skeptical of international trade agreements and economic integration. His framing effectively connected domestic political developments in Japan to broader debates surrounding globalization, regional cooperation, and the future of liberal international order. 

Rethinking EU–Japan Relations in an Age of Political Discontent

Professor Berkofsky started his lecture by underscoring that Japan has long represented something of a puzzle within comparative studies of populism. While right-wing populist movements expanded across much of Europe during the 1990s and 2000s, and Donald Trump’s election transformed American politics, Japan appeared remarkably resistant to similar developments. Unlike many Western democracies, where established party systems fragmented under the pressure of anti-establishment mobilization, Japanese politics continued to be dominated by the Liberal Democratic Party, whose uninterrupted rule—interrupted only briefly on two occasions since 1955—provided an extraordinary degree of institutional continuity. This prolonged political stability, Professor Berkofsky suggested, delayed rather than prevented the emergence of populist politics. 

The lecturer explained that understanding Japan’s political exceptionalism requires appreciating the unique character of the LDP itself. Rather than functioning as a narrowly ideological organization, the LDP historically operated as a broad catch-all party composed of multiple internal factions representing diverse constituencies. Through an intricate system of intra-party bargaining, factional competition, and clientelist networks, the party successfully incorporated competing interests while maintaining overall political dominance. Prime ministers changed frequently, often every twelve to eighteen months, yet the governing party remained the same. Consequently, political stability did not depend upon individual leaders but upon the institutional resilience of the LDP as Japan’s dominant governing organization. This remarkable continuity, Professor Berkofsky argued, insulated Japan from many of the political ruptures experienced elsewhere, reducing opportunities for anti-system movements to gain electoral traction. 

Nevertheless, Professor Berkofsky contended that important changes have gradually emerged beneath this surface stability. The watershed moment, in his view, came with the 2025 lower house elections, during which the overtly populist and xenophobic Sanseito (“Japan First”) party secured representation in Japan’s parliament by winning approximately 7.4 million votes and fifteen parliamentary seats. Although modest by European standards, Professor Berkofsky regarded this breakthrough as historically significant because it marked the first time that an explicitly populist, anti-immigration movement had established a meaningful parliamentary presence in post-war Japan. The country’s long-standing immunity to global populist currents had, he argued, effectively come to an end. Japan had become, in his words, a “latecomer” to the global populist wave rather than a permanent exception to it. 

Importantly, Professor Berkofsky cautioned participants against interpreting this development as an abrupt rupture with Japan’s political past. Instead, he argued that contemporary populism has developed gradually within an existing political environment where elements of nationalism, cultural conservatism, and skepticism toward immigration had long been present, albeit often in implicit rather than explicit form. Japanese society itself, he stressed, should not be characterized as inherently xenophobic or racist. Having lived and worked extensively in Japan, Professor Berkofsky emphasized both his personal admiration for the country and the openness of Japanese society in everyday life. Yet beneath this generally welcoming social environment there had always existed what he described as a latent distinction between “the Japanese” and “the outsiders.” This distinction did not automatically translate into exclusionary politics, but it provided fertile political ground upon which more overt nationalist narratives could subsequently be constructed. 

According to Professor Berkofsky, this gradual normalization of exclusionary political discourse accelerated significantly during the premiership of Shinzo Abe. While Abe remained firmly within the mainstream LDP tradition rather than representing an anti-system outsider, his administration increasingly legitimized political rhetoric that portrayed foreigners with greater suspicion and framed questions of national identity more prominently within public debate. Professor Berkofsky carefully distinguished between Abe’s policies and those of contemporary European radical-right leaders, noting that Japan under Abe did not become a populist regime. Rather, Abe expanded the boundaries of politically acceptable discourse by making previously marginal nationalist themes more mainstream. Discussions surrounding immigration, cultural identity, and national sovereignty became increasingly visible within Japanese political life, creating opportunities for more explicitly populist actors to advance even stronger versions of these arguments in subsequent years. 

This trajectory, Professor Berkofsky argued, reached a new stage under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, whom he described as representing a more assertive and uncompromising version of the conservative nationalism associated with Abe. Although Takaichi continues to govern through the institutional framework of the LDP rather than through a newly created populist movement, her political rhetoric increasingly revolves around themes familiar to observers of European populism: identity politics, concerns over immigration, anxieties regarding national cohesion, and skepticism toward globalization. Professor Berkofsky drew explicit comparisons with leaders such as Giorgia Meloni in Italy, arguing that although important historical and institutional differences remain, contemporary conservative discourse in Japan increasingly resembles broader international trends evident across numerous advanced democracies. Populism, he suggested, has become a genuinely global phenomenon whose ideological vocabulary increasingly transcends regional boundaries. 

One of the lecture’s central analytical contributions lay in Professor Berkofsky’s insistence that Japan’s emerging populism cannot be understood simply by borrowing European categories. Unlike many European countries, Japan remains one of the world’s least immigrant-intensive societies. Foreign residents account for only around three percent of the total population, an extraordinarily low proportion compared to most advanced industrial democracies. Consequently, anti-immigration narratives claiming that foreigners threaten employment opportunities, overwhelm welfare systems, or fundamentally transform Japanese society rest upon empirical foundations that Professor Berkofsky repeatedly described as highly questionable. Indeed, one of the striking paradoxes emphasized throughout the lecture was that Japan’s populist discourse has emerged despite the absence of the large-scale immigration flows typically associated with the rise of anti-immigration politics elsewhere. This paradox would become one of the central themes explored during the remainder of the session, as Professor Berkofsky examined how demographic decline, labor shortages, and economic stagnation have created political opportunities for populist entrepreneurs despite Japan’s continued need for greater levels of immigration.

National Identity, Immigration, and the Political Mainstream: The Gradual Normalization of Populist Discourse

Japan’s former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Photo: Dreamstime.

Having argued that Japan has entered what he described as its own delayed populist moment, Professor Berkofsky devoted the second part of his lecture to explaining why this transformation has occurred despite the country’s long-standing reputation for political moderation and institutional stability. Rather than attributing Japan’s changing political landscape to a sudden surge of anti-establishment sentiment, he argued that contemporary populism has emerged through a gradual process of ideological normalization within the political mainstream itself. This process, he suggested, differs significantly from the trajectories observed in many European democracies, where populist parties frequently arose in opposition to established political elites. In Japan, by contrast, important elements of nationalist and identity-based politics developed from within the governing establishment before eventually creating opportunities for more explicitly populist actors to flourish.

Central to Professor Berkofsky’s analysis was the political legacy of Shinzo Abe, whose nearly eight years in office made him Japan’s longest-serving post-war prime minister. Professor Berkofsky was careful to reject simplistic characterizations of Abe as a populist in the European or American sense. Abe neither campaigned as an anti-system outsider nor sought to dismantle existing political institutions. Instead, he remained firmly embedded within the LDP and governed through established institutional channels. Nevertheless, Professor Berkofsky argued that Abe played a pivotal role in shifting the boundaries of acceptable political discourse. Under his leadership, themes of national identity, patriotism, constitutional revision, security normalization, and historical memory acquired far greater prominence within public debate than they had during previous decades. Although these themes remained largely compatible with mainstream conservative politics, they also contributed to the gradual legitimization of rhetorical strategies that later proved advantageous for more overtly populist movements.

According to Professor Berkofsky, Abe’s greatest political innovation lay not in introducing entirely new ideas but in redefining the political center of gravity. Issues that had previously occupied the margins of political discussion gradually entered mainstream discourse. Questions concerning immigration, cultural cohesion, and the preservation of Japanese identity increasingly became legitimate subjects of electoral competition rather than peripheral concerns associated with fringe nationalist organizations. This evolution mirrored broader developments observable across many advanced democracies, where mainstream conservative parties increasingly incorporated elements of populist rhetoric in response to shifting public attitudes. Professor Berkofsky emphasized that such developments should not be interpreted as evidence that Japan had become fundamentally xenophobic. Rather, they reflected the gradual politicization of issues that had previously remained relatively insulated from electoral contestation.

The lecturer then turned to the administration of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, whom he presented as representing a further stage in this ideological evolution. While Takaichi continues to govern through the institutional framework of the LDP, Professor Berkofsky suggested that her political style places greater emphasis on themes of national sovereignty, cultural identity, and immigration control than many of her predecessors. Her rhetoric increasingly resonates with narratives familiar from contemporary European conservative politics, particularly those stressing the need to protect national traditions against the perceived pressures of globalization and demographic change. Although important contextual differences remain, Professor Berkofsky drew comparisons with political figures such as Meloni, arguing that conservative politics across advanced democracies increasingly shares a common vocabulary centered upon nationhood, identity, borders, and sovereignty.

Yet Professor Berkofsky repeatedly cautioned participants against assuming direct equivalence between Japan and Europe. One of the lecture’s most important comparative insights concerned the striking disparity between the intensity of anti-immigration rhetoric and the actual scale of immigration into Japan. Unlike Germany, France, Sweden, or Italy, Japan has experienced relatively limited immigration. Foreign nationals constitute only a small proportion of the overall population, and immigration has historically remained tightly regulated. Consequently, political narratives portraying Japan as overwhelmed by immigration bear little resemblance to empirical reality. Professor Berkofsky described this disconnect as one of the defining paradoxes of contemporary Japanese politics: anti-immigration discourse has intensified despite the absence of mass immigration itself.

Demographic Decline, Economic Anxiety, and the Rise of Sanseito

Sanseito party.
A campaign poster for the right-wing populist Sanseito party in Tokyo, Japan. The slogan *Nihon o Nameruna* (“Don’t underestimate Japan” or “Don’t look down on Japan”) reflects the party’s nationalist political message. Tokyo, July 11, 2025. Photo: Hiroshi Mori / Dreamstime.

Having demonstrated how nationalist discourse gradually entered Japan’s political mainstream, Professor Berkofsky turned to the structural conditions that have enabled explicitly populist movements to gain electoral traction. Central to this discussion was the emergence of Sanseito, which he identified as the clearest expression of right-wing populism in contemporary Japanese politics. Although the party remains considerably smaller than the dominant LDP, its parliamentary breakthrough marked a significant turning point, establishing an institutional foothold for political narratives long associated with European and American populism. Rather than dismissing Sanseito as a temporary protest movement, Professor Berkofsky argued that its electoral success reflects deeper socioeconomic and demographic transformations reshaping Japanese politics.

Sanseito has positioned itself as a challenger to Japan’s political establishment by combining nationalism, economic protectionism, skepticism toward globalization, and particularly strong opposition to immigration. Presenting itself as the defender of “ordinary people” against detached political elites and international influences, the party’s slogan, “Japan First,” echoes nationalist rhetoric that has become increasingly familiar across advanced democracies. Yet Professor Berkofsky stressed that Japanese populism should not be viewed simply as an imitation of its European or American counterparts. Rather, it represents the adaptation of broadly similar narratives to Japan’s distinctive political institutions, demographic realities, and historical experience.

Immigration occupies the center of Sanseito’s political message. The party attributes rising crime, economic insecurity, and social fragmentation to increasing numbers of foreign workers. Professor Berkofsky challenged these claims as empirically unsupported. Japan remains one of the least immigrant-intensive societies among advanced economies, and available crime statistics provide no evidence that foreigners constitute a disproportionate burden on public safety. Likewise, labor-market data indicate that migrant workers overwhelmingly fill positions in sectors experiencing chronic labor shortages rather than displacing Japanese employees. Agriculture, construction, manufacturing, hospitality, logistics, and elderly care increasingly depend upon foreign labor simply to maintain existing levels of production and service provision. Far from undermining Japanese society, immigration has become an indispensable component of economic sustainability.

This disconnect between political rhetoric and demographic reality formed one of the lecture’s central arguments. Professor Berkofsky emphasized that Japan’s principal challenge is not excessive immigration but the opposite: an insufficient inflow of foreign workers to offset rapid population ageing, persistently low fertility rates, and a shrinking workforce. Employers across the economy increasingly struggle to recruit labor, while long-term demographic projections point toward further decline. Under these conditions, reducing immigration would almost certainly deepen Japan’s economic difficulties rather than alleviate them.

The paradox, Professor Berkofsky argued, illustrates a broader characteristic of contemporary populism. Its political effectiveness derives less from empirical accuracy than from its ability to simplify complex structural problems into emotionally compelling narratives. Long-term economic stagnation, weak wage growth, inflation, declining purchasing power, and demographic decline are multifaceted challenges rooted in economic, technological, and demographic change. Yet populist actors frequently attribute these developments to more visible political targets such as immigration, globalization, or detached elites. Even in a country where immigration remains comparatively limited, these narratives resonate because they tap into broader anxieties surrounding national identity, cultural continuity, and social cohesion.

Professor Berkofsky nevertheless cautioned against reducing Japan’s political transformation solely to economic grievances. While acknowledging that many citizens have experienced genuine economic insecurity after decades of slow growth and rising living costs, he argued that concerns about immigration also reflect deeper questions of identity and national belonging. Public unease cannot simply be dismissed; however, it should not be mistaken for an accurate description of Japan’s demographic realities. Policymakers therefore face the challenge of balancing legitimate concerns over social integration with the country’s undeniable economic need for greater international labor mobility.

Japan’s experience, Professor Berkofsky concluded, offers an important comparative perspective on the global evolution of populism. Unlike many European countries, where anti-immigration movements emerged following sustained immigration, Japan has witnessed the rise of similar political narratives despite maintaining exceptionally low levels of foreign residents. This demonstrates that identity politics need not depend upon large-scale migration alone but can also emerge from broader demographic anxieties, economic uncertainty, and shifting political discourse. By distinguishing carefully between rhetoric and empirical evidence, Professor Berkofsky showed that Japan’s encounter with populism reflects a complex interaction of demographic decline, economic pressures, identity politics, and institutional change rather than a straightforward rejection of globalization itself

The lecture also highlighted the increasingly important role of digital communication in facilitating populist mobilization. Like many contemporary populist movements elsewhere, Sanseito has proven particularly effective at utilizing social media platforms to disseminate simplified political messages, challenge mainstream media narratives, and cultivate direct communication with supporters. Professor Berkofsky noted that such strategies have enabled relatively small political organizations to achieve levels of visibility that would previously have required far greater organizational resources. The digitalization of political communication has therefore lowered barriers to electoral competition while simultaneously amplifying emotionally charged narratives concerning immigration, national identity, and political distrust. Although Japan’s media environment differs significantly from those found in many Western democracies, similar technological dynamics increasingly shape political discourse across advanced industrial societies.

Throughout this section, Professor Berkofsky consistently urged participants to distinguish between the political success of populist narratives and their analytical validity. Anti-immigration rhetoric may resonate with segments of the electorate experiencing economic anxiety, yet demographic evidence overwhelmingly suggests that Japan’s long-term prosperity depends upon attracting—not excluding—greater numbers of foreign workers. Likewise, blaming globalization or immigration for structural economic challenges risks obscuring deeper issues relating to productivity, demographic ageing, labor-market reform, and fiscal sustainability. Populism, in this sense, offers politically powerful narratives but rarely provides comprehensive solutions to the complex problems confronting advanced industrial democracies.

By examining the rise of Sanseito within this broader structural context, Professor Berkofsky demonstrated that Japan’s political transformation reflects far more than the emergence of a new political party. It illustrates how demographic decline, economic insecurity, identity politics, and digital communication increasingly interact to reshape democratic competition across advanced societies. Japan may have entered the global populist era later than Europe or the United States, but the underlying dynamics driving this transition reveal striking similarities. The country’s experience therefore offers valuable comparative insights into how populism adapts to distinct national contexts while drawing upon an increasingly shared repertoire of political narratives, grievances, and electoral strategies.

Populism, Free Trade, and the Future of EU–Japan Relations

Photo: Marian Vejcik / Dreamstime.

In the concluding section of his lecture, Professor Berkofsky shifted from analyzing Japan’s domestic political transformation to assessing its implications for one of the European Union’s most important strategic partnerships in Asia. Returning to the question posed at the beginning of the session, he asked whether the gradual emergence of populist politics in Japan might ultimately undermine the deepening economic and political cooperation between Tokyo and Brussels. His answer was deliberately cautious. While acknowledging that populist narratives are becoming increasingly visible within Japanese politics, Professor Berkofsky argued that there remains little evidence to suggest that Japan is on the verge of abandoning its long-standing commitment to international economic openness. Unlike many European and North American populist movements, whose electoral success has often been accompanied by hostility toward free trade agreements and multilateral institutions, Japanese populism has thus far developed within a political environment where broad elite consensus continues to support international economic engagement. Consequently, the future of EU–Japan relations appear considerably more resilient than many observers might initially assume.

Professor Berkofsky reminded participants that the EU–Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA), which entered into force in 2019, remains one of the most comprehensive bilateral trade agreements ever concluded by either party. Negotiated against the backdrop of growing protectionist tendencies elsewhere, the agreement represented a powerful political statement in favor of rules-based trade, multilateral cooperation, and open markets. Covering approximately one-third of global GDP and creating one of the world’s largest free trade areas, the EPA extended well beyond tariff reductions to encompass regulatory cooperation, government procurement, intellectual property, environmental standards, and sustainable development. For both Brussels and Tokyo, the agreement symbolized a shared commitment to preserving an international economic order increasingly challenged by geopolitical rivalry and economic nationalism.

At the same time, Professor Berkofsky cautioned against viewing the partnership through overly idealized lenses. Despite its considerable achievements, the EPA has not eliminated all commercial frictions between the two economies. Agricultural market access, sanitary and phytosanitary regulations, public procurement, automotive trade, and steel safeguard measures continue to generate periodic disagreements. European exporters frequently seek greater access to Japanese agricultural markets, while Japanese firms remain attentive to European trade defense measures affecting industrial products. These issues, Professor Berkofsky suggested, should not be interpreted as evidence of weakening relations but rather as normal features of a mature economic partnership between two highly developed economies with occasionally divergent commercial interests. Importantly, such disagreements continue to be managed through institutional dialogue and negotiated compromise rather than escalating into broader political conflict.

This institutional resilience, Professor Berkofsky argued, distinguishes EU–Japan relations from many contemporary trade relationships increasingly characterized by unilateral tariffs, retaliatory sanctions, and economic coercion. Both parties continue to view predictable rules, legal certainty, and multilateral governance as essential foundations of international economic cooperation. Even as governments around the world increasingly embrace industrial policy, supply-chain diversification, and strategic competition, Brussels and Tokyo remain committed to maintaining a broadly liberal trading relationship. In this respect, the EU–Japan partnership has acquired significance extending beyond bilateral commerce itself, serving as an important example of how advanced democracies can continue supporting international economic openness while adapting to a more uncertain geopolitical environment.

The lecture nevertheless acknowledged that domestic political developments could gradually complicate this picture. Should populist parties expand their electoral influence, trade agreements may become increasingly vulnerable to broader political debates concerning sovereignty, globalization, and national identity. Professor Berkofsky noted that this pattern has already become familiar across Europe, where opposition to international trade agreements often extends beyond economic concerns to encompass wider anxieties regarding immigration, democratic accountability, environmental regulation, and cultural identity. While Japan has not yet experienced comparable levels of political contestation surrounding trade policy, the emergence of more vocal nationalist actors suggests that similar debates may become increasingly prominent in future electoral campaigns. The challenge for policymakers will therefore be to preserve public support for economic openness while addressing legitimate concerns regarding inequality, regional disparities, and economic insecurity.

One of Professor Berkofsky’s most important observations concerned the relationship between economic performance and political stability. He argued that Japan’s experience demonstrates how prolonged economic stagnation, declining real incomes, and demographic pressures can gradually erode confidence in established political institutions even where those institutions remain highly stable by international standards. Populist movements frequently gain support not because they offer comprehensive policy solutions but because they provide emotionally compelling narratives that identify clear causes for complex structural problems. Consequently, defending liberal economic cooperation requires more than simply emphasizing the aggregate benefits of free trade. Governments must also demonstrate that globalization generates broadly shared prosperity capable of maintaining democratic legitimacy. Failure to address the distributive consequences of economic change risks creating political opportunities for movements seeking to replace nuanced policy discussions with simplified nationalist narratives.

Professor Berkofsky further suggested that the European Union may itself draw valuable lessons from Japan’s experience. Although Europe and Japan differ substantially in terms of immigration levels, demographic structures, political institutions, and historical development, both confront remarkably similar long-term challenges: ageing populations, labor shortages, technological competition, slowing productivity growth, and increasing geopolitical uncertainty. Both have also sought to balance economic openness with greater strategic resilience without abandoning their commitment to rules-based international cooperation. In this sense, EU–Japan relations increasingly extend beyond traditional trade diplomacy to encompass broader cooperation on economic security, digital governance, technological innovation, supply-chain resilience, and the defense of multilateral institutions. These shared interests provide a strong foundation upon which the partnership can continue to develop despite evolving domestic political landscapes.

Throughout his concluding remarks, Professor Berkofsky repeatedly resisted alarmist interpretations of Japan’s political trajectory. While acknowledging that the country’s immunity to populism has weakened, he argued that contemporary Japanese politics remains fundamentally different from the highly polarized environments observed in several Western democracies. The LDP continues to dominate national politics, institutional continuity remains strong, and broad elite consensus in favor of international engagement persists. Populist actors have undoubtedly entered the political arena, but they have not displaced the established structures that continue to shape Japanese policymaking. Consequently, the emergence of parties such as Sanseito should be understood less as evidence of systemic political rupture than as an indication that Japan is gradually experiencing political dynamics already familiar elsewhere.

As the lecture concluded, Professor Berkofsky returned to the broader comparative perspective that had framed his analysis from the outset. Japan, he argued, should no longer be viewed as an exceptional democracy somehow insulated from the social and political transformations affecting other advanced industrial societies. Rather, it represents a particularly instructive case illustrating how populism adapts to distinctive national contexts while responding to common structural pressures. Demographic decline, economic uncertainty, globalization, identity politics, and digital communication increasingly interact across democratic systems in ways that transcend regional boundaries. Yet Japan’s experience also demonstrates that institutional resilience, pragmatic policymaking, and sustained international engagement can moderate these pressures without eliminating them entirely.

Taken as a whole, Professor Berkofsky’s lecture offered participants a sophisticated comparative framework for understanding the evolving relationship between domestic political change and international economic cooperation. By tracing Japan’s gradual encounter with populism while simultaneously examining the resilience of EU–Japan relations, he demonstrated that contemporary debates surrounding globalization, immigration, and national identity cannot be separated from wider questions of demographic transformation, economic governance, and strategic competition. In doing so, the lecture reinforced one of the central themes of the ECPS Academy Summer School: that Europe’s future “between oceans” will increasingly depend upon its ability to cultivate resilient partnerships with like-minded democracies facing many of the same political, economic, and geopolitical challenges.

Image: Dreamstime.

ECPS Academy Summer School 2026 – Dr. Giulio Pugliese: The EU’s Policy Towards Asia Amidst Changing US–China Security and Trade Dynamics

As Europe deepens its engagement with the Indo-Pacific, the region has become far more than a distant theatre of economic opportunity—it has emerged as a central arena where geopolitical competition, technological innovation, supply-chain resilience, and strategic autonomy intersect. In this insightful lecture, Dr. Giulio Pugliese demonstrated how the Indo-Pacific evolved from a Japanese strategic narrative into a defining framework for understanding twenty-first-century international politics. Examining the growing rivalry between the United States and China, Taiwan’s geopolitical and technological significance, and the implications of Washington’s increasingly transactional alliance strategy, he argued that Europe must move beyond traditional regional perspectives and formulate a coherent Indo-Pacific policy rooted in its own interests. The lecture offered participants a nuanced understanding of how Europe’s future security and prosperity are becoming increasingly intertwined with developments across Asia.

Reported by ECPS Staff

The third day of the ECPS Academy Summer School 2026 continued its exploration of Europe’s changing geopolitical environment by shifting attention beyond the Atlantic theatre to the increasingly consequential dynamics unfolding across the Indo-Pacific. Held under the overarching theme, Europe Between Oceans: The EU in the Age of Geoeconomics, Populism, and Strategic Competition,” the sessions examined how the European Union is recalibrating its external relations amid intensifying strategic competition between the United States and China. Following discussions on strategic autonomy, de-risking, and economic security, the sixth lecture broadened the analytical horizon by investigating Europe’s evolving engagement with Asia and the conceptual transformations that increasingly shape international politics. Against this backdrop, Dr. Giulio Pugliese, Director of the EU–Asia Project at the European University Institute and Associate Fellow at the Istituto Affari Internazionali and King’s College London, delivered a stimulating lecture entitled “The EU’s Policy Towards Asia Amidst Changing US–China Security and Trade Dynamics.” Combining insights from international relations, strategic studies, and Asian regional politics, the lecture challenged participants to rethink the Indo-Pacific not merely as a geographical designation but as a politically constructed strategic space whose emergence has profoundly influenced European foreign policy. <

The session was thoughtfully introduced by Anita Tusor, doctoral researcher at Charles University and Staff Officer at NATO’s Allied Command Transformation, who situated the discussion within one of the defining strategic dilemmas confronting contemporary Europe. She observed that the European Union increasingly finds itself navigating between its two most important economic partners—the United States and China—at a time when their rivalry is reshaping both global trade and international security. Rather than portraying the Indo-Pacific as a distant theatre of commercial interest, Tusor argued that recent geopolitical developments, particularly Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, have fundamentally altered European strategic thinking. The conflict has created direct linkages between the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security theatres, compelling European policymakers to recognize that developments in East Asia now carry direct implications for Europe’s own security calculations. She further suggested that Europe’s growing interest in Japan’s experience of managing long-standing US–China tensions provides valuable opportunities for policy learning as Brussels seeks to navigate an increasingly polarized international environment. Her introduction effectively framed the lecture by emphasizing that Europe’s engagement with Asia is no longer peripheral but has become an integral component of its broader strategy for managing geopolitical competition. 

Reimagining the Indo-Pacific: Strategic Narratives and Europe’s Asian Turn

Dr. Giulio Pugliese.
Dr. Giulio Pugliese is Director of the EU–Asia Project at the European University Institute and Associate Fellow at the Istituto Affari Internazionali and King’s College London.

Connecting live from Taipei, Dr. Pugliese began by explaining that his primary objective was not simply to review recent European policy initiatives toward Asia but to unpack the intellectual foundations of one of the most widely used yet insufficiently examined concepts in contemporary international relations: the Indo-Pacific. While the term has rapidly entered the vocabulary of policymakers, diplomats, and scholars alike, he argued that it should not be understood as a politically neutral geographical label. Instead, it represents what strategic communication scholars describe as a strategic narrative—a carefully constructed story designed to simplify complex geopolitical realities, define particular challenges, identify preferred actors, and legitimize specific policy responses. Seen through this lens, the Indo-Pacific is not merely a map but a political project that reflects competing visions of regional order, international leadership, and global governance. Dr. Pugliese invited participants to appreciate that language itself constitutes an instrument of power, capable of shaping perceptions, legitimizing alliances, and influencing strategic behavior. 

At the heart of Dr. Pugliese’s analysis lay the argument that the Indo-Pacific concept originated not in Washington but in Tokyo. Drawing extensively upon his own research on Japanese foreign policy, he demonstrated that the contemporary understanding of the Indo-Pacific owes much to the strategic vision developed by the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and a relatively small circle of policymakers who sought to redefine Asia’s geopolitical architecture during the late 2000s and early 2010s. Their objective was to present an alternative regional order capable of responding to China’s expanding economic and strategic influence, particularly the growing prominence of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). By advancing the concept of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), Japan deliberately expanded the geographical imagination of Asia beyond a China-centered perspective. Rather than viewing Asia exclusively through East Asia and the Western Pacific, the Indo-Pacific connected the Pacific and Indian Oceans into a single strategic theatre stretching from East Africa to the western shores of the Americas, encompassing India, Australia, Southeast Asia, and maritime democracies across the region. In doing so, the concept challenged what Pugliese described as the increasingly Sinocentric geographical narrative embedded within Beijing’s own regional initiatives. 

Dr. Pugliese explained that each element of the FOIP formulation carried important political meaning. “Free” referred not only to democratic governance but also to the provision of alternatives to Chinese-led infrastructure financing and development initiatives. “Open” emphasized freedom of navigation, overflight, and the maintenance of open sea lanes that remain indispensable for international commerce. Collectively, the concept sought to portray the Indo-Pacific as a region characterized by openness, connectivity, transparency, and respect for international law, thereby implicitly contrasting it with perceptions of China’s expanding strategic influence. While acknowledging that such narratives inevitably simplify reality, Dr. Pugliese argued that their political effectiveness lies precisely in their capacity to mobilize coalitions of like-minded states around a shared strategic vision. The Indo-Pacific therefore functions simultaneously as a geographical concept, a diplomatic framework, and a normative narrative through which states articulate competing understandings of regional order. 

The lecture further traced the intellectual genealogy of this strategic narrative to earlier Japanese initiatives, including Abe’s conception of an “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity” and the revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) involving Japan, Australia, India, and the United States. Dr. Pugliese argued that these initiatives reflected a sustained Japanese effort to cultivate a network of maritime democracies capable of balancing China’s growing influence without necessarily resorting to overt containment. Behind these policy innovations stood a relatively small but highly influential group of Japanese officials and strategic thinkers who consistently sought to integrate economic policy, diplomacy, security cooperation, and strategic communication into a coherent foreign policy vision. Their efforts, he suggested, represented one of the most successful examples of middle-power agenda-setting in contemporary international relations, demonstrating that states need not possess overwhelming material capabilities to shape global strategic discourse. 

According to Dr. Pugliese, Japan’s most remarkable achievement was its ability to persuade the United States to adopt this conceptual framework during the first Trump administration. He described this as an exceptionally rare case in which a close ally effectively exported a foreign policy narrative to Washington rather than merely adapting to American strategic preferences. Following intensive diplomatic engagement, the United States officially embraced the Indo-Pacific concept in 2017, replacing the long-established Asia-Pacific terminology within its strategic vocabulary. The subsequent declassification of the US Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific further illustrated how the concept had become integrated into American grand strategy, where it served not only to strengthen partnerships among regional democracies but also to provide an overarching framework for managing strategic competition with China. Dr. Pugliese emphasized that this represented far more than a semantic adjustment; it marked the institutionalization of a new geopolitical imagination that would subsequently influence the policies of numerous allies, including those within Europe. 

Thus, Dr. Pugliese had fundamentally reframed participants’ understanding of the Indo-Pacific. Rather than accepting it as a self-evident geographical reality, he demonstrated that the concept itself constitutes an important arena of strategic competition, reflecting broader struggles over regional leadership, international legitimacy, and the future architecture of global order. This conceptual foundation established the basis for the remainder of the lecture, which would examine how the intensifying rivalry between Washington and Beijing has increasingly drawn Europe into this evolving strategic landscape, compelling the European Union to rethink both its relations with Asia and its own geopolitical identity.

Europe’s Strategic Recalibration: From the Asia-Pacific to the Indo-Pacific

Indo-Pacific
Flags of the Quad countries—Japan, Australia, the United States, and India—alongside a chess king, symbolizing strategic competition and the Quad’s evolving role in balancing China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. Illustration: Sameer Chogale / Dreamstime.

Having established that the Indo-Pacific is fundamentally a strategic narrative rather than a neutral geographical designation, Dr. Pugliese proceeded to examine how this conceptual innovation gradually reshaped the foreign policies of the world’s leading powers. His central argument was that strategic narratives matter not merely because they influence political discourse but because they can fundamentally alter the way governments define interests, identify partners, and formulate grand strategy. The Indo-Pacific, he argued, evolved from a Japanese diplomatic initiative into the dominant geopolitical framework guiding American policy toward Asia before eventually being embraced—albeit in modified form—by the European Union and several of its member states. Understanding this process, he suggested, is essential to explaining why Europe increasingly views developments in East Asia as directly relevant to its own security and prosperity. 

Dr. Pugliese argued that the decisive turning point came during the first Trump administration. While previous American administrations had pursued engagement with China alongside regional balancing, President Donald Trump’s first term marked a more explicit shift toward strategic competition. Rather than viewing China’s rise as an opportunity for deeper integration into the liberal international order, Washington increasingly came to regard Beijing as a systemic rival whose growing technological, economic, and military capabilities required active counterbalancing. The trade war initiated against China, restrictions on Chinese technology firms such as Huawei, and growing concern over supply-chain vulnerabilities all reflected a broader transformation in American strategic thinking. Crucially, however, Dr. Pugliese emphasized that the conceptual vocabulary through which this shift was articulated had largely originated in Tokyo. Japan’s success in persuading Washington to officially adopt the Indo-Pacific framework represented, in his view, one of the rare instances in modern diplomacy where a middle power successfully influenced the grand strategy of the world’s leading superpower. 

Particularly significant was Dr. Pugliese’s discussion of the United States Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific, a document declassified at the conclusion of the first Trump administration. Unlike carefully crafted public statements, this internal strategic document revealed with unusual candour the objectives underpinning Washington’s regional policy. It openly framed China as the principal strategic competitor and explicitly identified the promotion of a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” as a means of strengthening alliances while countering Beijing’s expanding influence. Dr. Pugliese drew participants’ attention to the informational dimension of this strategy, noting that the Indo-Pacific narrative was designed not only to organize military and diplomatic cooperation but also to compete with China’s own strategic messaging surrounding the BRI. Strategic communication, public diplomacy, and the contest over international narratives thus emerged as integral components of contemporary great-power competition. 

This observation led Dr. Pugliese to one of the lecture’s broader conceptual contributions: the growing importance of information politics within international relations. Great-power competition today extends well beyond military deployments and economic sanctions to encompass competing stories about the international order itself. He pointed to narratives portraying China’s BRI as “debt-trap diplomacy” as examples of what he termed informational contestation. Such narratives sought to shape international perceptions by presenting Chinese infrastructure investment not as development assistance but as a mechanism for creating political dependency. Whether entirely accurate or not, these narratives significantly influenced public debates across Europe, North America, and Asia, reinforcing broader geopolitical efforts to limit China’s expanding influence. The Indo-Pacific, therefore, functions not simply as a strategic framework but also as a powerful communicative device through which competing powers seek to legitimize their preferred regional order. 

Against this backdrop, Dr. Pugliese turned to the question of why Europe gradually embraced the Indo-Pacific concept despite its initial reluctance. He recalled that, during its early years, the term carried uncomfortable political connotations within many European capitals because it appeared closely associated with American efforts to contain China. For governments seeking to preserve productive economic relations with Beijing, openly endorsing a framework perceived as anti-Chinese seemed diplomatically unwise. Consequently, European policymakers initially preferred the more familiar Asia-Pacific terminology and avoided language that could be interpreted as aligning Europe too closely with Washington’s increasingly confrontational posture.

Several developments, however, fundamentally altered European calculations. According to Dr. Pugliese, one important factor was the gradual deterioration of EU–China relations driven by persistent trade imbalances, concerns over market access, investment reciprocity, technology transfer, and broader disagreements regarding human rights and political governance. These tensions had already encouraged European institutions to adopt a more cautious approach toward Beijing before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic further exposed vulnerabilities associated with dependence on global supply chains concentrated in China. The pandemic reinforced concerns regarding economic resilience, strategic dependencies, and the security implications of excessive reliance on external suppliers, thereby lending greater credibility to calls for diversification and de-risking. 

The most decisive catalyst, however, was Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Dr. Pugliese argued that the war fundamentally transformed European perceptions of China, not primarily because Beijing directly participated in the conflict but because of its increasingly close relationship with Moscow. Although China formally maintained neutrality, European policymakers became increasingly concerned by evidence suggesting that Beijing had provided Russia with critical dual-use technologies and economic support that helped sustain its war effort. From a realist perspective, Dr. Pugliese explained, such behaviour reflected China’s strategic interest in preventing the emergence of a weakened or pro-Western Russia that might leave China strategically isolated. Yet for many Europeans, China’s unwillingness to distance itself from Moscow significantly weakened confidence in the possibility of a stable strategic partnership.  

At the same time, Dr. Pugliese cautioned against interpreting Europe’s Indo-Pacific engagement exclusively through the lens of ideological confrontation with China. Instead, he proposed a more nuanced explanation rooted in strategic bargaining within the transatlantic alliance. Following Russia’s invasion, Europe became even more dependent upon the United States for military assistance, intelligence sharing, energy supplies, and broader security guarantees. This asymmetry inevitably strengthened Washington’s leverage over European foreign policy. In return for sustained American support in Ukraine, the United States increasingly expected its European allies to align more closely with broader American strategic priorities in Asia. Support for Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, and other regional partners thus became part of a wider process of transatlantic strategic coordination extending well beyond the European continent itself. Europe’s growing Indo-Pacific engagement should therefore be understood not only as a response to developments in Asia but also as an indirect consequence of the changing political economy of the transatlantic alliance. 

Yet Dr. Pugliese repeatedly emphasized that European alignment with the United States also reflected Europe’s own interests. Asia’s extraordinary economic dynamism provides compelling incentives for deeper European engagement irrespective of American preferences. The Indo-Pacific contains many of the world’s fastest-growing economies, leading centers of technological innovation, and increasingly important markets for advanced manufacturing and defense industries. European firms have substantial commercial interests in expanding cooperation with countries such as Japan, South Korea, India, and Taiwan, particularly in sectors related to semiconductors, green technologies, digital infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing. Consequently, Europe’s Indo-Pacific strategy cannot be reduced to alliance politics alone; it also reflects a broader recognition that the center of gravity of the global economy continues to shift toward Asia. 

Dr. Pugliese illustrated this economic dimension by highlighting Europe’s growing interest in securing access to high-end semiconductors produced by Taiwan’s globally significant manufacturing sector. The political signaling directed toward Taipei should therefore be understood not solely as an expression of democratic solidarity but also as part of a broader strategy aimed at attracting investment, diversifying technological supply chains, and supporting Europe’s twin digital and green transitions. The Indo-Pacific thus emerges simultaneously as a security theatre, a technological ecosystem, and a vital economic space whose importance transcends traditional geopolitical categories.

By the conclusion of this section, Dr. Pugliese had demonstrated that Europe’s embrace of the Indo-Pacific reflects the convergence of multiple structural forces: intensifying US–China rivalry, deteriorating EU–China relations, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, changing transatlantic dynamics, and the growing economic significance of Asia itself. Rather than representing a sudden strategic pivot, Europe’s Indo-Pacific policy emerged as the cumulative product of shifting geopolitical realities that increasingly blur the boundaries between European and Asian security. The lecture therefore invited participants to reconsider the European Union not as a passive observer of Indo-Pacific developments but as an increasingly active participant in the evolving strategic architecture linking the Atlantic and Pacific worlds.

Taiwan, Economic Security, and the Geopolitics of Interdependence

The flags of Taiwan, the United States, and China.
The flags of Taiwan, the United States, and China displayed on semiconductor chips, symbolizing intensifying global competition over advanced chip production, technological leadership, and strategic supply chains. Illustration: Korn Vitthayanukarun / Dreamstime.

Building upon his analysis of Europe’s gradual embrace of the Indo-Pacific framework, Dr. Pugliese devoted the third section of his lecture to what he described as one of the most consequential developments in contemporary international politics: the growing strategic centrality of Taiwan. While public debate often portrays Taiwan primarily through the lens of cross-Strait tensions or democratic solidarity, Dr. Pugliese argued that the island has acquired a far broader geopolitical significance. Taiwan today occupies the intersection of military strategy, technological competition, global supply chains, and great-power rivalry, making it one of the principal theatres through which the evolving balance of power in the Indo-Pacific is increasingly contested. For the European Union, he suggested, Taiwan represents not merely a distant regional issue but an increasingly important component of its own economic security and technological resilience. 

Dr. Pugliese encouraged participants to move beyond simplified narratives that portray cross-Strait relations as an inevitable confrontation between democracy and authoritarianism. Instead, he situated recent developments within a longer historical trajectory. The election of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government in 2016 marked an important turning point because the new administration rejected the political understandings that had underpinned earlier efforts to stabilize relations with Beijing. From the perspective of the Chinese Communist Party, this shift fundamentally altered the trajectory of cross-Strait relations by diminishing prospects for eventual peaceful reunification under previously accepted political formulas. Beijing consequently intensified diplomatic, economic, and military pressure designed to isolate Taiwan internationally while discouraging further movement toward a distinct Taiwanese political identity. Rather than interpreting these developments solely through ideological categories, Dr. Pugliese invited participants to recognize the complex interaction of historical memory, nationalism, domestic politics, and strategic calculation that continues to shape Chinese policy. 

The deterioration of cross-Strait relations coincided with a profound transformation in American grand strategy. As the first Trump administration adopted a more confrontational approach toward China, Taiwan assumed an increasingly important position within Washington’s broader strategy of balancing Chinese power. Dr. Pugliese argued that Taiwan gradually evolved into what he repeatedly described as a strategic chess piece within the wider architecture of US–China competition. This characterization did not diminish Taiwan’s own agency or democratic achievements; rather, it reflected the reality that major powers increasingly viewed the island through the prism of broader regional military calculations. Maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait became essential not only because of Taiwan itself but because of its location within the broader maritime geography of East Asia and its implications for regional power projection. 

To explain this strategic importance, Dr. Pugliese introduced participants to the concept of the First Island Chain, a geographical arc extending from northern Japan through Okinawa and Taiwan to the Philippines and onward toward Southeast Asia. Far from representing a mere cartographic feature, this chain constitutes one of the most strategically significant maritime corridors in the contemporary international system. Control over—or access through—these waters shape naval mobility, intelligence gathering, anti-submarine warfare, and the broader military balance in the Western Pacific. Dr. Pugliese illustrated how the deployment of advanced surveillance systems, missile capabilities, radar installations, and underwater sensors throughout this maritime corridor has increasingly transformed the region into a densely monitored strategic environment. In this context, Taiwan occupies a uniquely sensitive position because any alteration to the status quo would fundamentally affect the operational environment of both China and the United States, as well as their regional allies. 

This strategic logic, he explained, has profoundly reshaped alliance structures throughout East Asia. The United States has pursued what contemporary defense planners describe as integrated deterrence, strengthening operational cooperation with Japan, the Philippines, Australia, and other regional partners while enhancing interoperability, logistical coordination, and joint contingency planning. Japan, in particular, has assumed a much more prominent role within this evolving security architecture, expanding defense cooperation with Washington and adapting its own military posture to the possibility of a Taiwan contingency. The Philippines has similarly increased cooperation by providing greater access to military facilities, while Australia has deepened its participation in regional security initiatives. According to Dr. Pugliese, these developments illustrate that Taiwan has become embedded within a much broader regional deterrence strategy extending well beyond the island itself. 

Yet Dr. Pugliese was equally careful to avoid reducing Taiwan’s significance to military considerations alone. One of the lecture’s central themes was the growing fusion of security and economics in contemporary international relations. Taiwan’s extraordinary technological capabilities—particularly its globally dominant semiconductor industry—have elevated the island from a regional security concern to a cornerstone of the global digital economy. Advanced semiconductor manufacturing has become indispensable for artificial intelligence, telecommunications, defense systems, electric vehicles, and countless other technologies underpinning modern industrial production. Consequently, disruptions to Taiwan’s manufacturing ecosystem would carry profound consequences far beyond East Asia, affecting supply chains, industrial production, and technological innovation across Europe and the wider international economy.

For Europe, these developments have acquired increasing policy relevance through the emerging concept of economic security. Dr. Pugliese explained that the European Union’s efforts to diversify supply chains and reduce strategic dependencies have naturally directed attention toward Taiwan’s semiconductor industry. European governments have actively sought to attract investment from leading Taiwanese firms, recognizing that securing access to advanced chip production has become essential for the continent’s digital transformation, industrial competitiveness, and technological sovereignty. Europe’s growing diplomatic engagement with Taiwan should therefore be understood not merely as an expression of support for democratic values but also as a pragmatic effort to strengthen resilience within strategically vital industrial sectors. 

This convergence of economic and security considerations extended beyond semiconductors to encompass defense industrial cooperation more broadly. Dr. Pugliese observed that both Europe and East Asia have experienced a dramatic expansion in defense expenditure following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the intensification of geopolitical competition. Rising military budgets have created new opportunities for collaboration in defense technologies, weapons systems, logistics, maintenance, and industrial production. European defense manufacturers increasingly view Indo-Pacific markets as important destinations for exports, co-development projects, and long-term industrial partnerships. At the same time, such cooperation contributes to reducing production costs and strengthening Europe’s own defense industrial base. Security cooperation, therefore, increasingly reflects not only strategic necessity but also significant commercial incentives. 

Throughout this discussion, Dr. Pugliese repeatedly cautioned against simplistic explanations of Europe’s growing engagement with Taiwan and the wider Indo-Pacific. While democratic values undoubtedly play an important role in shaping European discourse, he argued that material interests remain equally significant. Taiwan matters because it is democratic, but it also matters because it occupies a pivotal position within global technology supply chains, financial markets, and maritime trade routes. Likewise, Europe’s Indo-Pacific strategy reflects concern over regional stability, but it also reflects the continent’s own industrial ambitions, technological needs, and economic future. These multiple motivations coexist rather than compete, producing a more complex picture than narratives centered exclusively upon ideology or security.

An equally important contribution of the lecture lay in Dr. Pugliese’s application of the concept of the security dilemma to contemporary US–China relations. He suggested that many of the military deployments, alliance expansions, and deterrence measures currently unfolding across East Asia are driven by reciprocal perceptions of insecurity. Measures intended by one side to preserve stability may be interpreted by the other as preparations for confrontation, thereby generating self-reinforcing cycles of strategic competition. Taiwan, in this sense, is both an object of genuine political concern and a symbol of broader geopolitical rivalry. Understanding these action–reaction dynamics, Pugliese argued, is essential for avoiding overly deterministic interpretations of current tensions while appreciating the structural pressures confronting policymakers on all sides.

By the conclusion of this section, participants were presented with a nuanced portrait of Taiwan as far more than a regional flashpoint. Instead, the island emerged as a focal point where questions of technological leadership, economic resilience, alliance politics, military deterrence, and strategic communication converge. For Europe, Taiwan increasingly embodies the wider challenges of navigating an international environment in which economics and security have become inseparable. The European Union’s growing interest in the Indo-Pacific, therefore, cannot be understood solely as an extension of transatlantic solidarity or support for democratic partners. Rather, it reflects the recognition that Europe’s own prosperity, technological competitiveness, and strategic autonomy are becoming progressively intertwined with developments unfolding thousands of kilometers beyond its traditional neighborhood.

Transactional Alliances, Strategic Autonomy, and Europe’s Indo-Pacific Future

In the concluding section of his lecture, Dr. Pugliese turned to the question that ultimately linked every preceding discussion: how should the European Union position itself in an Indo-Pacific increasingly shaped not only by intensifying US–China competition but also by profound changes within the United States itself? While much of the strategic debate over the past decade has focused on China’s growing influence, Dr. Pugliese argued that Europe’s most immediate challenge now lies in responding to the transformation of American grand strategy under Donald Trump’s second administration. The issue confronting European policymakers, he suggested, is no longer simply how to manage China’s rise but how to navigate an international environment in which the reliability, priorities, and strategic commitments of the United States have themselves become less predictable. 

Dr. Pugliese observed that the second Trump administration has introduced a noticeably more transactional approach to international alliances than its predecessors. While the broader American national security establishment—including the Department of Defense, the State Department, and the defense-industrial sector—continues to regard strategic competition with China as the defining challenge of twenty-first-century international politics, the White House has increasingly emphasized burden-sharing, domestic priorities, and the reduction of costly foreign commitments. Rather than fundamentally abandoning America’s alliances, Washington has sought to redefine them according to a logic that requires allies to assume substantially greater responsibility for their own security. In this sense, Dr. Pugliese suggested, contemporary American strategy reflects not isolationism in the traditional sense, but a recalibration of alliance management designed to reduce American costs while preserving strategic influence. 

This changing approach has had profound implications for both Europe and East Asia. Throughout the lecture, Dr. Pugliese repeatedly emphasized that Washington now expects its allies to devote considerably larger shares of national resources to defense. European governments have been encouraged to expand military expenditure well beyond previous commitments, while similar expectations have been directed toward Japan, Taiwan, Australia, and other Indo-Pacific partners. Such demands are presented not merely as financial obligations but as evidence of political resolve and strategic credibility. In practical terms, this means that allies are increasingly expected to shoulder a greater proportion of deterrence, procurement, logistics, and operational planning, thereby allowing the United States to preserve flexibility while maintaining its broader strategic posture toward China. 

Dr. Pugliese also highlighted the important economic dimension underlying these developments. Rising defense expenditure is not simply a matter of military preparedness; it has become an increasingly significant component of industrial policy on both sides of the Atlantic. The expansion of defense production stimulates investment, creates manufacturing demand, and contributes to broader efforts at industrial revitalization. Referring to developments in Germany and elsewhere in Europe, Dr. Pugliese observed that defense procurement has increasingly been linked to debates surrounding reindustrialization, technological innovation, and economic competitiveness. Former civilian manufacturing facilities are gradually being adapted to defense production, while military industries have assumed renewed importance within national economic strategies. The security agenda, therefore, cannot be separated from wider questions concerning employment, industrial policy, and technological modernization. 

The lecture nevertheless cautioned against interpreting contemporary alliance politics exclusively through the lens of burden-sharing. Dr. Pugliese argued that Washington’s approach toward China has itself become increasingly complex. Although the strategic framework established during the first Trump administration continues to shape American policy, recent developments suggest a greater willingness on the part of the White House to pursue tactical accommodation with Beijing where domestic political or economic interests require it. He pointed to the temporary stabilization of US–China relations following the escalation of tariff disputes and China’s restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals as evidence that geopolitical rivalry increasingly coexists with selective negotiation and pragmatic compromise. Great-power competition, therefore, does not unfold as a linear process of confrontation but rather through continuous cycles of competition, bargaining, and limited cooperation. 

Rare earths emerged as a particularly revealing illustration of the changing character of economic statecraft. China’s restrictions on exports of strategically important minerals exposed the extent to which advanced industrial economies remain dependent upon Chinese production in sectors essential to digital technologies, renewable energy, and defense manufacturing. Dr. Pugliese noted that these measures affected not only civilian industries but also the American defense-industrial base itself, demonstrating that economic interdependence continues to constrain even the world’s most powerful states. The resulting negotiations between Washington and Beijing therefore reflected mutual vulnerabilities rather than unilateral leverage. For Europe, this episode underscored the urgency of diversifying critical supply chains while avoiding simplistic assumptions that complete economic disengagement from China remains either feasible or desirable. 

Turning once more to Taiwan, Dr. Pugliese argued that recent American policy illustrates the increasingly transactional character of alliance politics. While Washington has continued to announce substantial arms packages and reaffirm its interest in maintaining stability across the Taiwan Strait, implementation has often proven uneven. Delays in weapons deliveries, greater pressure on Taipei regarding trade and tariff issues, and adjustments to diplomatic engagement all suggest a more flexible approach shaped by immediate political considerations, including domestic electoral calculations. Nevertheless, Dr. Pugliese cautioned against interpreting these developments as evidence of strategic disengagement. Beneath the political rhetoric of the White House, the broader American national security apparatus continues to deepen military cooperation with Japan, Australia, the Philippines, and other regional partners. Defense planning, alliance coordination, and operational integration initiated during earlier administrations have largely continued, illustrating the considerable institutional continuity that often characterizes foreign policy despite changes in political leadership. 

One of the lecture’s most insightful observations concerned the coexistence of continuity and change within American strategy. Although presidential rhetoric may fluctuate considerably, longstanding institutional commitments frequently persist beneath the surface. Military exercises continue, defense partnerships expand, and strategic planning remains oriented toward balancing China’s growing capabilities. This distinction between political leadership and institutional strategy, Dr. Pugliese argued, is essential for understanding current international developments. It also cautions against interpreting individual diplomatic episodes in isolation from the deeper structural forces that continue to shape US–China competition.

Throughout this concluding discussion, Dr. Pugliese consistently returned to the position of the European Union. Europe, he argued, increasingly finds itself compelled to pursue a delicate balancing act. On one hand, the continent shares important strategic concerns with the United States regarding China’s growing military capabilities, technological ambitions, and economic influence. On the other hand, Europe possesses significant commercial interests in maintaining productive relations with Asian economies, including China itself. Simultaneously, the unpredictability associated with American foreign policy reinforces longstanding European aspirations for greater strategic autonomy. Rather than blindly aligning with either Washington or Beijing, the European Union must therefore cultivate the capacity to pursue its own interests while preserving constructive partnerships across the Indo-Pacific.

Importantly, Dr. Pugliese rejected simplistic narratives portraying Europe as either an unquestioning follower of American strategy or an independent geopolitical pole entirely detached from transatlantic cooperation. Instead, he depicted European policymaking as a process of continuous negotiation among competing priorities: maintaining alliance solidarity, preserving economic competitiveness, protecting critical technologies, strengthening defense capabilities, and avoiding unnecessary escalation with China. The Indo-Pacific strategy adopted by the European Union reflects precisely this balancing effort. Its deliberately inclusive language seeks to strengthen engagement with democratic partners while avoiding explicit endorsement of comprehensive containment strategies. Europe, in other words, is gradually seeking to develop a distinct Indo-Pacific identity that remains compatible with transatlantic cooperation without being wholly defined by it.

As the lecture drew to a close, Dr. Pugliese emphasized that understanding Europe’s evolving role in Asia requires abandoning narrow regional perspectives. The Indo-Pacific and the Euro-Atlantic can no longer be treated as separate strategic theatres. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s growing global influence, technological competition, supply-chain vulnerabilities, and alliance politics have created an increasingly interconnected geopolitical landscape in which developments in one region inevitably reverberate across the other. Europe’s future prosperity, security, and strategic autonomy will therefore depend upon its ability to engage effectively with both theatres simultaneously.

Taken as a whole, Dr. Pugliese’s lecture provided participants with a remarkably nuanced framework for understanding the European Union’s evolving engagement with Asia. Rather than presenting the Indo-Pacific as merely the latest geopolitical slogan, he demonstrated how strategic narratives, alliance politics, economic interdependence, technological competition, and shifting global power structures have become deeply intertwined. By tracing the intellectual origins of the Indo-Pacific concept, examining the evolution of US–China rivalry, analyzing Taiwan’s strategic significance, and exploring the implications of America’s increasingly transactional alliance policy, the lecture illuminated the profound transformation currently underway in international politics. Most importantly, it underscored that Europe’s future “between oceans” will not be determined solely by the choices of Washington or Beijing but by its own ability to formulate a coherent, strategically autonomous, and globally engaged vision capable of navigating an increasingly contested international order.

The iconic euro (€) sculpture.

ECPS Academy Summer School 2026 – Assoc. Prof. Reuben Wong: Strategic Autonomy, De-risking, and EU Economic Security Tools

The European Union’s pursuit of strategic autonomy has emerged as one of the defining geopolitical debates of the twenty-first century, reflecting the growing convergence of security, economics, technology, and global power competition. In this intellectually stimulating lecture, Associate Professor Reuben Wong examined how Europe’s search for greater strategic independence has been reshaped by an increasingly volatile international environment marked by intensifying US–China rivalry, Russia’s revisionism, and rapid technological transformation. Challenging conventional assumptions about Europe’s transatlantic relationship and its approach toward China, he argued that strategic autonomy requires not only stronger defense and economic security instruments but also a fundamental reassessment of Europe’s place within an emerging multipolar order. The lecture offered participants a provocative and nuanced framework for understanding the future of European geopolitics.

Reported by ECPS Staff

The third day of the ECPS Academy Summer School 2026 marked a decisive transition from examining the political economy of international trade toward confronting the broader geopolitical forces reshaping Europe’s external relations. Convened under the overarching theme, Europe Between Oceans: The EU in the Age of Geoeconomics, Populism, and Strategic Competition,” the programme explored how the European Union is increasingly compelled to navigate an international environment characterized not only by intensifying strategic rivalry between the United States and China but also by the erosion of long-standing assumptions about globalization, security, and the liberal international order. Against this backdrop, Associate Professor Reuben Wong of the National University of Singapore delivered a thought-provoking lecture entitled Strategic Autonomy, De-risking, and EU Economic Security Tools,” inviting participants to reconsider Europe’s geopolitical position through an analytical lens that combined European integration studies with the strategic realities of contemporary international politics.

From the outset, Assoc. Prof. Wong made clear that his objective was not merely to catalogue the European Union’s emerging economic security instruments or explain the technical dimensions of de-risking. Rather, he sought to interrogate the underlying assumptions shaping European strategic thinking at a moment when the continent finds itself simultaneously confronting geopolitical uncertainty, technological transformation, and shifting distributions of global power. Drawing upon his long-standing scholarship on European foreign policy, as well as his experience observing both European and Asian strategic debates, Assoc. Prof. Wong encouraged participants to move beyond familiar policy slogans and instead examine the deeper questions surrounding Europe’s identity, capabilities, and long-term strategic interests.

One of the lecture’s distinguishing features was the perspective from which it was delivered. Speaking from Singapore—a country whose foreign policy has long depended upon balancing relations among competing major powers—Assoc. Prof. Wong approached debates over European strategic autonomy with a degree of analytical distance rarely encountered within discussions dominated by either Brussels or Washington. Rather than treating Europe’s geopolitical dilemmas as uniquely European, he situated them within a broader transformation of the international system, where established powers increasingly confront rising competitors, traditional alliances are being reassessed, and economic interdependence has itself become a source of strategic vulnerability. This external vantage point enriched the discussion by encouraging participants to question assumptions that often remain implicit within European policy circles.

Assoc. Prof. Wong also began by highlighting the conceptual ambiguity surrounding two of the most frequently invoked expressions in contemporary European policy discourse: strategic autonomy and de-risking. Although both terms have become central to debates on European foreign and economic policy, they often carry different meanings depending upon the context in which they are employed. Assoc. Prof. Wong observed that discussions of de-risking almost invariably evoke Europe’s increasingly complex relationship with China. The concept reflects growing concerns regarding excessive dependence on Chinese supply chains, critical raw materials, strategic technologies, intellectual property protection, and infrastructure deemed essential to European economic resilience. De-risking, therefore, does not necessarily imply economic decoupling from China but rather seeks to reduce strategic vulnerabilities while preserving mutually beneficial commercial relations.

By contrast, Assoc. Prof. Wong suggested that strategic autonomy has historically been associated less with China than with Europe’s relationship with the United States. At its core lies the question of whether the European Union possesses the political, military, and institutional capacity to pursue its own foreign policy independently of American strategic preferences. While the expression has acquired renewed prominence following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and amid renewed uncertainty surrounding American global leadership, Assoc. Prof. Wong reminded participants that the debate itself stretches back to the end of the Cold War. Since the early 1990s, European leaders have repeatedly grappled with the challenge of transforming the Union from an economic giant into a credible geopolitical actor capable of defending both its interests and its values.

Rather than presenting these concepts as separate policy debates, Assoc. Prof. Wong argued that they should be understood as interconnected responses to a rapidly changing international environment. Strategic autonomy addresses Europe’s dependence on external security guarantees, while de-risking reflects growing awareness of economic dependencies that may equally constrain political decision-making. Together, they illustrate the European Union’s broader search for resilience in a world where geopolitical competition increasingly extends beyond military affairs to encompass trade, technology, investment, industrial policy, and digital infrastructure.

Throughout this opening section of the lecture, Assoc. Prof. Wong established the intellectual framework that would guide the remainder of his presentation: understanding Europe’s future requires examining not only the policies it adopts, but also the assumptions it holds about power, alliances, and the changing architecture of the international system. By placing strategic autonomy and economic security within this wider geopolitical context, he invited participants to reconsider whether Europe’s existing conceptual frameworks remain adequate for navigating an era defined by intensifying great-power competition and accelerating technological transformation.

The Long Search for Strategic Autonomy: From European Aspirations to Geopolitical Reality

Associate Professor Reuben Wong.
Associate Professor Reuben Wong is Deputy Head of the Political Science Department at the National University of Singapore.

Having established the conceptual foundations of strategic autonomy and de-risking, Assoc. Prof. Wong proceeded to examine the historical evolution of Europe’s quest for greater geopolitical independence. Rather than portraying strategic autonomy as a recent response to heightened tensions with China or the return of Donald Trump to the White House, he situated it within a much longer trajectory of European integration that has unfolded since the end of the Cold War. His historical reconstruction demonstrated that contemporary debates over European defense, foreign policy, and economic security are best understood not as abrupt policy innovations but as the latest chapter in a decades-long effort to reconcile Europe’s political ambitions with its enduring strategic dependencies.

At the center of Assoc. Prof. Wong’s discussion stood a deceptively simple definition of strategic autonomy: the ability of a state—or, in the European Union’s unique case, a union of sovereign states—to pursue its preferred foreign policy and defend its interests without excessive dependence on external powers. Although straightforward in formulation, Assoc. Prof. Wong argued that this definition immediately exposes one of the European Union’s most enduring dilemmas. Unlike conventional nation-states, the EU has long aspired to exercise geopolitical influence while lacking many of the instruments traditionally associated with great-power status, particularly unified military capabilities and a fully integrated foreign policy apparatus. Consequently, strategic autonomy has remained as much an aspiration as an accomplished reality.

This ambition has shaped European foreign policy thinking since the early 1990s, when the collapse of the bipolar international order appeared to create new opportunities for Europe to emerge as an independent strategic actor. The establishment of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) represented one of the most ambitious manifestations of this aspiration. By seeking to coordinate foreign policy among member states, the EU hoped to complement its growing economic integration with greater diplomatic coherence and international influence. Yet, as Assoc. Prof. Wong reminded participants, translating institutional innovation into effective geopolitical action proved considerably more difficult than its architects had anticipated.

To illustrate this challenge, Assoc. Prof. Wong revisited one of the defining moments in post-Cold War European diplomacy: the violent disintegration of Yugoslavia. At the outset of the crisis, European leaders famously declared that the conflict represented “the hour of Europe,” signaling their confidence that the continent possessed both the responsibility and the capability to resolve security crises in its own neighborhood. Events quickly exposed the limitations of that ambition. As the conflicts escalated into prolonged warfare, ethnic cleansing, and genocide, European diplomatic initiatives failed to prevent violence, while decisive military intervention ultimately depended upon the United States and NATO. For Assoc. Prof. Wong, the Yugoslav wars became an enduring reminder that Europe’s geopolitical aspirations remained constrained by its continued reliance on American military power.

This lesson profoundly shaped subsequent debates over European defense integration. Assoc. Prof. Wong devoted particular attention to the 1998 Saint-Malo Declaration, jointly issued by British Prime Minister Tony Blair and French President Jacques Chirac, which called for the European Union to develop autonomous military capabilities capable of responding to regional crises. Although frequently celebrated as a milestone in the evolution of European security policy, Assoc. Prof. Wong argued that the declaration also revealed fundamental differences regarding the meaning of strategic autonomy itself.

France, he explained, traditionally viewed strategic autonomy through the lens of genuine strategic independence. Rooted in Gaullist thinking and reinforced by decades of skepticism toward excessive reliance on Washington, successive French governments argued that Europe should possess independent military capabilities, autonomous command structures, and the political freedom to undertake operations without depending upon NATO. Strategic autonomy, from this perspective, required Europe to become a fully-fledged geopolitical actor capable of acting on its own behalf.

Britain’s interpretation differed significantly. While London supported stronger European defense cooperation, it remained firmly committed to preserving NATO as the cornerstone of European security. British policymakers generally understood strategic autonomy not as an alternative to the Atlantic Alliance but as a complementary mechanism that would enable European states to contribute more effectively to collective defense without duplicating NATO structures. As Assoc. Prof. Wong noted, this more Atlanticist understanding was shared by many other European governments, particularly those in Northern and Central Europe, which regarded American security guarantees as indispensable to continental stability.

These competing interpretations, Assoc. Prof. Wong argued, help explain why European defense integration has repeatedly advanced in incremental rather than transformative ways. Although successive crises—including the Arab Spring, Russia’s intervention in Georgia, the annexation of Crimea, and ultimately Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine—have reinforced calls for greater European strategic capacity, member states have continued to differ over the extent to which strategic autonomy should supplement or gradually replace dependence on the United States.

Drawing upon his own experience as a diplomat and scholar observing European capitals, Assoc. Prof. Wong enriched this historical analysis with comparative reflections on how different countries interpreted the post-Cold War strategic environment. He recalled that policymakers in Paris were already contemplating a future in which American reliability could no longer be taken for granted, prompting early efforts to strengthen European defense capabilities. By contrast, officials in London, Bonn, and many other European capitals struggled to imagine a European security architecture detached from American leadership. These contrasting strategic cultures, he suggested, continue to shape debates over European defense to this day.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House has injected renewed urgency into these long-standing discussions. While strategic autonomy had often been treated as an ambitious long-term objective, changing transatlantic dynamics have increasingly transformed it into what many European leaders now perceive as an immediate strategic necessity. Yet Assoc. Prof. Wong cautioned against viewing contemporary developments solely through the lens of personalities or electoral cycles. The deeper issue, he argued, concerns whether Europe has sufficiently adapted to a changing international system in which alliances can no longer be assumed to be permanent or unconditional.

In one of the lecture’s most intellectually provocative moments, Assoc. Prof. Wong introduced a distinctly realist interpretation of contemporary international politics. Reflecting upon the evolution of European strategic thinking, he suggested that the European Union had spent much of the post-Cold War era operating under liberal assumptions regarding the durability of democratic solidarity and the permanence of the rules-based international order. Those assumptions, he argued, increasingly require reconsideration. States, including democratic allies, ultimately pursue their own interests, and alliances endure only so long as they continue to serve mutually beneficial strategic purposes. From this perspective, expecting the United States to indefinitely shoulder the burden of European security irrespective of its own changing priorities may represent less a realistic strategic assessment than an increasingly untenable political assumption.

By tracing the historical evolution of strategic autonomy through successive geopolitical crises, Assoc. Prof. Wong demonstrated that Europe’s present predicament is neither accidental nor entirely new. Rather, contemporary debates reflect the culmination of unresolved tensions that have accompanied European integration for more than three decades. The challenge facing the European Union today, therefore, is not simply to devise new policy instruments, but to determine whether it is finally prepared to align its strategic ambitions with the capabilities required to sustain genuine geopolitical autonomy.

Between Washington and Beijing: Reassessing Europe’s Strategic Environment

Photo: Dreamstime.

Having traced the historical evolution of strategic autonomy, Assoc. Prof. Wong shifted the discussion toward the rapidly changing international environment within which the European Union must now pursue that ambition. Rather than treating Europe’s security dilemmas as the product of a single crisis, he situated them within a broader transformation of global politics marked by shifting power balances, intensifying great-power competition, and the gradual erosion of assumptions that had underpinned the post-Cold War international order. Throughout this section of the lecture, Assoc. Prof. Wong argued that Europe’s strategic predicament cannot be understood solely through its relations with either Washington or Beijing; instead, it emerges from the increasingly complex triangular relationship among the European Union, the United States, and China.

Assoc. Prof. Wong began by observing that Europe finds itself confronting an unprecedented convergence of external pressures. Relations with Russia have deteriorated dramatically following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, fundamentally altering Europe’s security landscape. At the same time, the return of Donald Trump to the American presidency has reopened longstanding questions regarding the reliability of the transatlantic alliance, while relations with China have become increasingly complicated by disputes over trade imbalances, technological competition, industrial policy, human rights, and concerns over Beijing’s growing strategic partnership with Russia. Rather than confronting a single geopolitical rival, Europe now faces the far more demanding challenge of managing simultaneous tensions with multiple major powers whose interests increasingly intersect.

The lecture devoted particular attention to the implications of changing transatlantic relations. Assoc. Prof. Wong argued that the debate over European strategic autonomy has acquired renewed urgency not simply because of Russia’s military aggression but because uncertainty regarding American strategic commitments has become significantly more pronounced. Referring to the early months of Trump’s second presidency, he recalled disputes over tariffs, trade policy, and even Washington’s controversial rhetoric regarding Greenland. These developments, he suggested, reinforced concerns among European policymakers that the United States was becoming an increasingly unpredictable partner whose strategic priorities might diverge from those of its European allies.

Yet Assoc. Prof. Wong was careful to emphasize that such developments should not be interpreted merely as the consequence of one administration or one political leader. Instead, he invited participants to consider whether Europe has been too slow to recognize broader structural changes in international politics. Drawing upon a realist understanding of international relations, he argued that great powers do not maintain costly alliances indefinitely out of sentiment or historical loyalty alone. Rather, alliances endure because they continue to serve concrete strategic and material interests. From this perspective, the expectation that the United States will remain permanently committed to underwriting European security regardless of shifting geopolitical priorities may no longer represent a sustainable assumption.

This argument marked one of the lecture’s most provocative departures from conventional European policy discourse. Assoc. Prof. Wong suggested that, for much of the post-Cold War period, European strategic thinking had been shaped by liberal assumptions concerning democratic solidarity, institutional cooperation, and the durability of the rules-based international order. While these assumptions contributed significantly to European integration itself, he argued that they have become increasingly difficult to reconcile with contemporary geopolitical realities. The resurgence of great-power rivalry, growing economic nationalism, and renewed emphasis on national interest all point toward a more competitive international environment in which states, including democratic allies, increasingly prioritize their own strategic calculations.

It was within this broader realist framework that Assoc. Prof. Wong introduced what was arguably the lecture’s most controversial proposition. Contrary to prevailing narratives within many European political circles, he suggested that the United States, rather than China, has increasingly become the principal source of strategic uncertainty confronting Europe. Several years earlier, such an assessment might have appeared implausible. Yet Assoc. Prof. Wong argued that recent developments require a reassessment of long-held assumptions about the respective roles of Washington and Beijing within the international system.

To support this contention, Assoc. Prof. Wong contrasted the behavior of the two powers in relation to the international rules-based order. While acknowledging the numerous disagreements that continue to characterize relations between Europe and China, he nevertheless argued that Beijing has, in several important respects, sought to operate within existing international institutions and norms established after the Second World War. By contrast, he suggested that recent American policies have increasingly challenged many of the very principles that Washington itself had historically championed, including support for multilateral institutions, international trade regimes, and predictable alliance commitments. In Assoc. Prof. Wong’s assessment, the paradox of the current international order lies in the fact that the principal architect of the post-war liberal system now appears increasingly willing to revise or abandon elements of that system, while China often presents itself as a defender of institutional stability and economic globalization.

This interpretation naturally challenged participants to reconsider familiar geopolitical narratives. Assoc. Prof. Wong acknowledged that many European policymakers continue to view China primarily through the lenses of strategic competition, human rights concerns, and systemic rivalry. Nevertheless, he encouraged his audience to distinguish between legitimate concerns regarding China’s growing influence and broader assumptions that automatically portray Beijing as the principal disruptor of the international order. Historical experience, institutional inertia, and deeply embedded transatlantic political cultures, he suggested, have made it difficult for many Europeans to recognize the extent to which the geopolitical landscape has evolved.

At the same time, Assoc. Prof. Wong cautioned against reducing international politics to a simplistic binary competition between Washington and Beijing. Instead, he argued that Europe’s strategic interests require a far more nuanced understanding of both powers. China should neither be romanticized nor automatically treated as an adversary whose rise inevitably threatens European prosperity. Equally, the United States should not be assumed to remain an unchanging guarantor of European security simply because of decades of successful transatlantic cooperation. Strategic autonomy, therefore, demands that Europe develop the analytical capacity to evaluate both relationships on the basis of its own interests rather than inherited geopolitical assumptions.

The lecture also situated China’s rise within the longer trajectory of global power redistribution. Assoc. Prof. Wong argued that China should no longer be understood merely as an emerging power but rather as a fully-fledged superpower whose influence increasingly shapes international politics, global markets, technological innovation, and diplomatic agendas. Referring to recent high-level interactions between Washington and Beijing, he suggested that historians may ultimately identify the latest summit between the two governments as a symbolic moment in which the United States implicitly acknowledged China as a strategic peer. The absence of unequivocal American dominance in these negotiations reflected, in his view, a broader transition toward a more multipolar international system.

Within such a system, Europe can no longer rely upon geopolitical habits formed during the Cold War or the immediate post-Cold War decades. Instead, Assoc. Prof. Wong argued that the European Union must cultivate a more independent strategic identity grounded in realistic assessments of its own capabilities, interests, and external environment. This requires moving beyond reflexive alignments with either superpower while simultaneously preserving constructive relations with both. For Europe, the challenge is not to choose between Washington and Beijing, but to develop sufficient strategic confidence to cooperate, compete, and disagree with each according to its own long-term interests.

By the conclusion of this section, Assoc. Prof. Wong had fundamentally reframed the strategic autonomy debate. Rather than presenting it as a defensive response to external threats alone, he portrayed it as a process of intellectual and political maturation through which the European Union must redefine its place within an increasingly fragmented international order. Strategic autonomy, in this sense, is less about distancing Europe from particular partners than about equipping it with the capacity to navigate a world in which geopolitical certainty has become the exception rather than the rule.

Normative Power, Market Power, and Europe’s Technological Challenge

Photo: Maryna Kushnarova / Dreamstime.

Having examined Europe’s shifting geopolitical environment, Assoc. Prof. Wong turned to one of the lecture’s central analytical questions: whether the European Union still possesses the capacity to shape the international order through its traditional strengths. Rather than focusing exclusively on military capabilities or diplomatic influence, Assoc. Prof. Wong explored Europe’s changing position as a producer of international norms, regulatory standards, and market rules. In doing so, he revisited two of the most influential concepts in European Union scholarship—Normative Power Europeand Market Power Europe—before questioning whether the material foundations that once sustained these forms of influence remain sufficiently robust in an era of accelerating technological competition and shifting global economic power.

Assoc. Prof. Wong began by discussing the influential work of political scientist Ian Manners, whose concept of Normative Power Europe has long occupied a central place in debates on the European Union’s international role. Manners argued that the EU’s distinctive influence derives not primarily from military power but from its capacity to define what constitutes legitimate behavior in international politics. Through the promotion of democracy, human rights, rule of law, multilateralism, environmental protection, and good governance, the Union has sought to exercise influence by shaping norms rather than imposing coercion. This vision has become deeply embedded within both academic literature and European policymaking, reinforcing the idea that the EU represents a unique kind of international actor whose strength lies in persuasion rather than force.

While acknowledging the significance of this intellectual tradition, Assoc. Prof. Wong encouraged participants to distinguish between aspiration and empirical reality. The European Union undoubtedly seeks to project normative influence, he argued, but successful norm entrepreneurship requires willing audiences capable of accepting and internalizing those standards. In practice, the EU has proven most effective when engaging countries that aspire to join the Union or maintain exceptionally close institutional and economic ties with it. The accession process itself illustrates the remarkable power of European conditionality, whereby candidate states undertake extensive political, legal, and economic reforms in exchange for eventual membership. Beyond this sphere of attraction, however, Europe’s capacity to shape political norms becomes considerably more limited.

To illustrate this point, Assoc. Prof. Wong referred to states that possess sufficient political autonomy, demographic weight, or strategic leverage to resist European pressure. Russia represented the clearest example of a country unwilling to organize its domestic or foreign policy according to European expectations. Yet Assoc. Prof. Wong also cited Turkey, Iran, and other significant regional powers that, despite maintaining important economic relationships with the EU, have repeatedly demonstrated their willingness to reject European normative preferences when these conflict with domestic political priorities or broader strategic interests. Such examples, he argued, reveal that normative influence ultimately depends upon underlying distributions of political and economic power rather than normative appeal alone.

If Europe’s ability to export political values has become increasingly constrained, Assoc. Prof. Wong suggested that its more enduring source of influence has historically resided elsewhere. Here he introduced Chad Damro’s concept of Market Power Europe, which shifts attention from political ideals to economic scale. Unlike normative power, which rests upon persuasion and legitimacy, market power derives from the size, wealth, and regulatory sophistication of the European single market. As one of the world’s largest integrated economic areas, the EU has long possessed the ability to establish product standards, environmental regulations, competition rules, labor protections, and consumer safety requirements that multinational corporations frequently adopt worldwide. Access to the European market has thus encouraged firms and governments alike to conform to European regulatory frameworks, extending the Union’s influence well beyond its territorial borders.

For Assoc. Prof. Wong, however, even this formidable source of influence can no longer be taken for granted. Market power ultimately depends upon economic dynamism, technological leadership, and sustained commercial relevance. Here he painted a considerably more cautious picture of Europe’s future. While the European Union remains one of the world’s largest economies, its relative share of global trade has steadily declined over recent decades as emerging economies—particularly China and increasingly India—have assumed a larger role in global production, investment, and innovation. Whereas Europe once accounted for roughly a quarter of world trade, its share has gradually diminished, reflecting broader structural changes in the global economy.

This decline carries consequences extending well beyond trade statistics. Assoc. Prof. Wong argued that countries which dominate emerging industries also acquire disproportionate influence over the standards governing those industries. Historically, Europe’s industrial strength enabled it to shape international regulations across numerous sectors, from manufacturing and pharmaceuticals to environmental protection and consumer rights. Yet leadership in future technologies increasingly belongs elsewhere. As innovation shifts toward artificial intelligence, advanced semiconductors, electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and digital infrastructure, regulatory influence will increasingly follow technological leadership rather than historical institutional prestige.

Artificial intelligence emerged as perhaps the most illustrative example of this transformation. Assoc. Prof. Wong observed that Europe possesses world-class universities, research institutions, and highly skilled scientific communities. Nevertheless, these strengths have not translated into globally dominant AI platforms capable of competing directly with American and Chinese technological giants. While companies such as OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, DeepSeek, Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu increasingly shape the global AI ecosystem, Europe has yet to produce comparable commercial champions operating at similar scale. Consequently, Assoc. Prof. Wong argued, Europe risks finding itself in the position of regulating technologies whose fundamental architecture, commercial logic, and technical standards are being established elsewhere.

The discussion then broadened to encompass the wider technological transformation underway in China. Assoc. Prof. Wong challenged participants to reconsider widespread perceptions that continue to portray China primarily as a manufacturing economy dependent upon copying foreign technologies. Drawing upon personal experiences from his recent visits, he described a society that has rapidly become one of the world’s foremost laboratories of technological innovation. Cashless payment systems, integrated digital platforms, sophisticated logistics networks, and autonomous delivery technologies illustrated the extent to which China has advanced in areas where many developed economies still rely upon older infrastructures. These examples were not presented merely as anecdotes but as evidence of China’s growing capacity to shape future technological ecosystems.

Particularly striking was Assoc. Prof. Wong’s discussion of China’s digital economy. Recounting his surprise when physical cash and even international credit cards proved largely unusable during his visits, he highlighted how mobile payment platforms such as Alipay and WeChat Pay have fundamentally transformed everyday economic life. Likewise, China’s extensive deployment of automated logistics—including robotic delivery services in hotels and urban environments—served to illustrate the speed with which technological innovation has been integrated into ordinary commercial practice. Such developments, he argued, underscore the increasingly significant gap separating technological adoption in parts of Asia from prevailing assumptions still common in Europe.

These observations naturally fed into Assoc. Prof. Wong’s broader concern regarding Europe’s future competitiveness. If technological innovation increasingly determines not only economic prosperity but also the capacity to establish international standards, Europe faces a narrowing window within which it can preserve meaningful regulatory influence. Regulatory excellence alone cannot indefinitely compensate for declining industrial leadership. Without stronger innovation ecosystems and greater participation in frontier technologies, Europe’s capacity to shape global governance may gradually erode despite its sophisticated legal and institutional frameworks.

The lecture also encouraged participants to place China’s contemporary rise within a broader historical context. Assoc. Prof. Wong reminded his audience that Chinese strategic thinking continues to be profoundly shaped by the historical memory of the so-called Century of Humiliation, during which successive unequal treaties, foreign occupations, and imperial interventions severely constrained Chinese sovereignty. Although China escaped formal colonization in the manner experienced by many Asian and African societies, Assoc. Prof. Wong argued that nineteenth-century European and Japanese interventions nonetheless left enduring historical scars. The visible architectural legacies of foreign concessions in cities such as Shanghai continue to serve as reminders of a period during which external powers exercised extraordinary influence over Chinese territory and governance.

By invoking this historical perspective, Assoc. Prof. Wong sought neither to justify nor to excuse contemporary Chinese policies. Rather, he encouraged participants to appreciate how historical memory informs present-day strategic behavior. European concerns regarding China’s growing global influence are undoubtedly significant, he acknowledged, yet Chinese policymakers likewise interpret international politics through a historical narrative centered upon sovereignty, national rejuvenation, and the determination never again to experience external subordination. Understanding these competing historical narratives, Assoc. Prof. Wong suggested, constitutes an essential prerequisite for developing more sophisticated European engagement with China.

From De-risking to Strategic Partnership: Reimagining Europe’s Economic Security

Stacks of euro coins placed before the flag of the European Union.
Stacks of euro coins placed before the flag of the European Union, symbolizing the euro currency and European economic integration. Photo: Marian Vejcik / Dreamstime.

In the concluding section of his lecture, Assoc. Prof. Wong shifted from diagnosing Europe’s strategic predicament to exploring the policy choices available to the European Union as it seeks to strengthen its economic resilience in an increasingly contested geopolitical environment. Returning to the second concept introduced at the beginning of the session—de-risking—he examined how the EU’s emerging economic security agenda fits within the broader pursuit of strategic autonomy. Rather than viewing economic security solely through the lens of defensive measures against perceived external threats, Assoc. Prof. Wong argued that Europe’s long-term success will depend upon combining resilience with openness, regulation with innovation, and strategic caution with international cooperation.

Although he acknowledged that discussions surrounding de-risking are frequently associated with reducing Europe’s dependence on China, Assoc. Prof. Wong cautioned against equating de-risking with comprehensive economic decoupling. Such an approach, he implied, would neither be economically sustainable nor strategically desirable. Instead, he presented de-risking as an effort to identify and mitigate vulnerabilities in areas where excessive dependence on external suppliers could undermine Europe’s political autonomy or economic stability. Critical raw materials, advanced semiconductors, digital infrastructure, strategic technologies, and resilient supply chains have all become central components of this emerging economic security agenda. Yet, Assoc. Prof. Wong argued, the effectiveness of these policies ultimately depends upon whether they enhance Europe’s own competitiveness rather than merely restrict external actors.

The discussion naturally turned to the policy instruments increasingly available to the European Union. While Assoc. Prof. Wong did not provide an exhaustive catalogue of individual legislative measures, he emphasized that Europe has gradually assembled a more sophisticated economic security toolbox capable of responding to external coercion and strategic pressure. These instruments include mechanisms to scrutinize foreign investment, strengthen supply-chain resilience, regulate emerging technologies, protect critical infrastructure, and respond collectively to economic coercion by third countries. Such measures, he suggested, represent an important evolution in European policymaking, reflecting the growing recognition that economic interdependence can generate strategic vulnerabilities as well as mutual benefits.

A particularly revealing illustration of this evolving approach emerged from Assoc. Prof. Wong’s discussion of the tensions that followed the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Referring to disputes surrounding Greenland and the renewed threat of punitive tariffs against European partners, Assoc. Prof. Wong observed that these developments produced an unusually unified response from several EU member states. He highlighted the symbolic decision by a number of European governments to express support for Denmark following Washington’s increasingly assertive rhetoric regarding Greenland. Although these gestures carried limited immediate military significance, they nevertheless reflected an important political signal: European solidarity could no longer be assumed to operate only against external competitors traditionally perceived as strategic rivals. For perhaps the first time in NATO’s history, Assoc. Prof. Wong noted, several European governments found themselves collectively signaling resistance to political pressure originating from the United States itself.

This episode, he argued, underscored the growing relevance of Europe’s economic security instruments. Faced with the prospect of American tariffs and economic coercion, the European Union demonstrated its willingness to contemplate robust countermeasures capable of imposing significant economic costs in return. Assoc. Prof. Wong referred to the Union’s capacity to deploy powerful retaliatory trade instruments, observing that although such measures would inevitably entail substantial economic consequences for both sides, they nevertheless constitute an increasingly important source of European strategic leverage. Economic statecraft, in other words, has become an indispensable complement to traditional diplomacy within the EU’s broader pursuit of strategic autonomy.

Yet Assoc. Prof. Wong was equally careful to stress that Europe’s future cannot be secured through defensive instruments alone. Protection, regulation, and retaliatory capabilities may reduce vulnerability, but they cannot substitute for technological dynamism or sustained economic competitiveness. It was at this point that he introduced what emerged as one of the lecture’s most forward-looking themes: digital sovereignty. Rather than understanding digital sovereignty as an attempt to isolate Europe from global technological ecosystems, Assoc. Prof. Wong presented it as the capacity to shape the governance of technologies that increasingly underpin modern economies. Artificial intelligence, digital platforms, data governance, and algorithmic regulation have all become critical arenas in which geopolitical competition increasingly unfolds.

For Assoc. Prof. Wong, Europe continues to possess a valuable—albeit narrowing—opportunity to influence the regulatory architecture governing these emerging technologies. Although European firms have not produced global AI champions comparable to those found in the United States or China, the Union still retains considerable regulatory authority through the size and attractiveness of its internal market. By establishing clear standards concerning transparency, accountability, privacy, competition, and digital governance, Europe may continue to shape aspects of global technological development even where it no longer leads in technological innovation itself. However, Assoc. Prof. Wong repeatedly emphasized that this window of opportunity is unlikely to remain open indefinitely if Europe’s technological capabilities continue to lag behind those of its principal competitors.

This concern naturally led to one of the lecture’s most distinctive policy recommendations. Rather than seeking to insulate European markets from external technological leaders, Assoc. Prof. Wong advocated a more pragmatic strategy centered on selective international cooperation. In particular, he argued that Europe should deepen engagement with technologically advanced partners across Asia, including China, Japan, South Korea, and other innovation-driven economies. Such partnerships, he suggested, would enable Europe to participate more actively in emerging technological ecosystems while simultaneously strengthening its own competitiveness.

In advancing this argument, Assoc. Prof. Wong challenged approaches that rely primarily upon restrictive regulation or defensive protectionism. Attempting to legislate foreign technologies out of European markets, he argued, risks isolating Europe from the very innovations that are reshaping the global economy. Instead, Europe should seek opportunities for collaboration with market leaders, recognizing that technological leadership increasingly depends upon interconnected networks of research, investment, industrial production, and commercial cooperation rather than purely national capabilities.

To illustrate this point, Assoc. Prof. Wong referred to developments within the global electric vehicle industry. He observed that successful firms increasingly pursue partnerships across national boundaries rather than relying exclusively upon domestic production or political protection. As an example, he pointed to the willingness of companies such as Tesla to cooperate with leading Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, demonstrating that commercial realities often encourage collaboration even amid broader geopolitical competition. Europe, he suggested, should draw lessons from such developments. Instead of viewing technological interdependence solely as a source of vulnerability, policymakers should also recognize its potential to accelerate innovation and strengthen long-term competitiveness.

Underlying this recommendation was Assoc. Prof. Wong’s broader conviction that Europe must cultivate a more confident understanding of its own strategic interests. Throughout the lecture, he consistently argued against framing international politics in rigid ideological or binary terms. Europe need not choose between unconditional alignment with Washington and comprehensive confrontation with Beijing. Nor should strategic autonomy be interpreted as strategic isolation. Rather, genuine autonomy requires the capacity to cooperate, compete, and disagree with multiple partners according to Europe’s own evolving interests and priorities.

As the lecture drew to a close, Assoc. Prof. Wong returned to the central theme that had connected each stage of his analysis: the European Union’s search for strategic autonomy in an era of profound geopolitical transformation. He suggested that this search cannot be reduced to military capability alone, nor can it be achieved solely through economic regulation or institutional reform. Strategic autonomy ultimately demands a broader intellectual shift in how Europe understands power itself. In a world where technological leadership, supply chains, innovation ecosystems, and digital infrastructure increasingly determine geopolitical influence, economic security has become inseparable from foreign policy and strategic decision-making.

The lecture concluded on a cautiously optimistic note. While Assoc. Prof. Wong openly acknowledged Europe’s relative decline in several domains—including demographic growth, technological innovation, and global market share—he rejected narratives of inevitable European marginalization. The Union continues to possess significant assets: one of the world’s largest integrated markets, highly developed regulatory institutions, advanced research capacities, and an enduring commitment to multilateral cooperation. Whether these strengths can be translated into sustained geopolitical influence, however, will depend upon Europe’s willingness to adapt to an international environment that increasingly rewards flexibility, innovation, and strategic pragmatism rather than reliance upon inherited assumptions.

Taken as a whole, Assoc. Prof. Wong’s lecture offered far more than an assessment of the European Union’s emerging economic security policies. It presented a comprehensive reflection on Europe’s place within a rapidly evolving international order, urging participants to reconsider established geopolitical narratives and to approach strategic autonomy not as a slogan but as an ongoing process of political, economic, and intellectual adaptation. By combining insights from European integration studies, international relations theory, and an Asian perspective on global power shifts, the lecture challenged participants to think beyond conventional dichotomies and to appreciate the complexity of Europe’s strategic choices in what is becoming an increasingly multipolar and geoeconomically contested world.

Conclusion

Associate Professor Reuben Wong’s lecture offered a sophisticated and timely examination of one of the European Union’s most pressing strategic dilemmas: how to preserve political autonomy, economic resilience, and regulatory influence amid an increasingly fragmented international order. Moving beyond conventional policy debates, he challenged participants to reconsider Europe’s assumptions about alliances, power, and globalization through a realist yet forward-looking analytical framework. 

By juxtaposing strategic autonomy with de-risking, normative influence with market power, and geopolitical competition with technological transformation, Assoc. Prof. Wong demonstrated that Europe’s future will depend not only on strengthening its economic security instruments but also on redefining its strategic identity in a rapidly evolving multipolar world. Perhaps the lecture’s greatest contribution lay in its distinctly Asian perspective, which encouraged participants to look beyond transatlantic paradigms and appreciate the profound shifts taking place in global power distribution. 

Ultimately, the session reinforced the Summer School’s central message that Europe’s future between the Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific will be determined not by choosing between competing great powers, but by developing the confidence, capabilities, and strategic vision necessary to engage an increasingly interconnected and contested world on its own terms.

Image: Paulus Rusyanto / Dreamstime.

ECPS Academy Summer School 2026 – Prof. Alasdair Young: Populism Trumped Transatlantic Trade Cooperation

Can the transatlantic trading order survive the rise of populism? In his lecture at the ECPS Academy Summer School 2026, “Europe Between Oceans: The EU in the Age of Geoeconomics, Populism, and Strategic Competition,” Professor Alasdair Young argues that Donald Trump’s second presidency marks a fundamental break with more than seventy years of EU–US trade cooperation. Moderated by Dr. Jessica Lawrence, the session explores how populist narratives, protectionism, geopolitical rivalry, and legal innovation are transforming the politics of international trade. Combining historical perspective with international political economy and trade law, Professor Young demonstrates that the future of transatlantic relations will depend not only on commercial negotiations but also on reconciling economic openness with democratic legitimacy, strategic autonomy, and global stability.

Reported by ECPS Staff

The transformation of transatlantic trade relations has become one of the defining features of the contemporary international political economy. For more than seven decades, the economic partnership between the European Union and the United States served as one of the principal pillars of the liberal international order, underpinning global trade liberalization, multilateral governance, and unprecedented levels of economic integration. Although the relationship periodically experienced disputes over agricultural regulation, industrial subsidies, market access, and monetary policy, these conflicts were generally managed within a shared commitment to rules-based cooperation and institutional compromise. Today, however, intensifying geopolitical rivalry, the resurgence of economic nationalism, the growing politicization of trade, and the rise of populist politics have fundamentally altered the assumptions that long sustained transatlantic economic cooperation. Understanding this transformation therefore requires moving beyond conventional analyses of tariffs and trade balances to examine the deeper political, institutional, and ideological forces reshaping the global trading system.

These questions lay at the heart of the ECPS Academy Summer School 2026, held under the theme Europe Between Oceans: The EU in the Age of Geoeconomics, Populism, and Strategic Competition.” Bringing together leading scholars and participants from around the world, the programme explored how geopolitical competition, strategic autonomy, democratic polarization, and technological rivalry are redefining Europe’s external relations and the future of global governance. Within this broader intellectual framework, Professor Alasdair Young, Neal Family Chair at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology, delivered a historically grounded and theoretically sophisticated lecture entitled “Populism Trumped Transatlantic Trade Cooperation.” Drawing upon decades of research on European Union trade policy and international political economy, Professor Young argued that the second Trump administration represents not simply another period of transatlantic commercial tension but a fundamental break with the cooperative logic that has characterized EU–US trade relations since the creation of the post-war trading order. By situating recent tariff disputes within the longer evolution of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the broader history of transatlantic economic integration, he demonstrated that contemporary protectionism reflects a deeper transformation in the politics of international trade itself.

The session was expertly moderated by Dr. Jessica Lawrence, Senior Lecturer at the University of Essex School of Law, whose scholarship on international economic law, World Trade Organization governance, European Union internal market regulation, and the intersection of trade with broader public policy objectives provided an ideal intellectual point of departure for the discussion. Her introductory remarks effectively framed the lecture by emphasizing that recent developments—from the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs and regulatory disputes to growing tensions over sustainability standards, digital governance, and industrial policy—should be understood not as isolated trade disagreements but as manifestations of broader geopolitical and institutional change. By encouraging participants to consider whether transatlantic trust has been fundamentally weakened, whether the WTO can continue to anchor the global trading system, and whether regional arrangements may increasingly displace multilateral governance, Dr. Lawrence situated Professor Young’s lecture squarely within the Summer School’s overarching exploration of geoeconomics, populism, and strategic competition.

Combining historical analysis, international political economy, trade law, and comparative politics, Professor Young challenged participants to rethink the relationship between populism and international commerce. He argued that Donald Trump’s protectionist agenda cannot be adequately explained through conventional accounts centered on sectoral interests or geopolitical competition alone. Instead, it reflects a distinctive populist conception of trade in which imports, trade deficits, and international economic interdependence are interpreted as evidence of exploitation by foreign actors enabled by domestic political elites. Equally significant was his analysis of the European Union’s response, which demonstrated that Europe’s acceptance of an asymmetrical trade agreement reflected not diplomatic weakness, but the complex strategic constraints imposed by wider security considerations, including NATO and the war in Ukraine. Offering a rich synthesis of historical perspective and contemporary policy analysis, the lecture provided participants with a compelling analytical framework for understanding how populism, protectionism, legal innovation, and geopolitical rivalry are collectively reshaping one of the world’s most consequential economic partnerships and, with it, the future of the liberal international economic order.

The Transatlantic Economy: A Relationship Built on Deep Integration Rather Than Simple Trade

Professor Alasdair Young.
Professor Alasdair Young is Neal Family Chair at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

Professor Young began his lecture by challenging one of the most common misconceptions surrounding EU–US economic relations: that the relationship can be adequately understood through bilateral trade balances alone. Public debate, particularly under Donald Trump’s second administration, has become heavily dominated by discussions of merchandise trade deficits, tariff levels, and market access. While these indicators undoubtedly matter politically, Professor Young argued that they provide only a partial—and often misleading—picture of the transatlantic economy. To appreciate the significance of recent policy changes, it is first necessary to understand the extraordinary depth and complexity of economic integration that has developed across the Atlantic since the end of the Second World War. 

Presenting a series of comparative economic indicators, Professor Young demonstrated that the transatlantic economy remains unparalleled in both scale and intensity. Together, the European Union and the United States account for roughly one-third of global gross domestic product and a similar proportion of world imports, while also representing approximately one-quarter of global exports. Yet these aggregate trade figures reveal only part of the relationship. The defining characteristic of transatlantic economic integration, he argued, is not merchandise trade but investment. Cross-Atlantic foreign direct investment (FDI) constitutes the largest bilateral investment relationship anywhere in the world, creating dense networks of production, ownership, finance, research, and innovation that extend far beyond conventional trade statistics. 

Professor Young therefore encouraged participants to reconceptualize the Atlantic economy as an integrated production system rather than merely a trading relationship. American companies operating within Europe generate enormous sales through their European subsidiaries, while European firms maintain similarly extensive operations throughout the United States. Consequently, many goods and services exchanged across the Atlantic are produced within multinational corporate structures whose operations transcend national boundaries. This level of economic interdependence means that political decisions affecting trade frequently influence investment, employment, production networks, and technological cooperation simultaneously.

Beyond the Trade Deficit: Understanding the Real Structure of EU–US Economic Relations

One of Professor Young’s central analytical interventions concerned the political misuse of bilateral trade statistics. Throughout Donald Trump’s political career, trade deficits—particularly deficits in manufactured goods—have occupied a central place in his criticism of international trade. According to Professor Young, however, this emphasis ignores essential dimensions of the transatlantic economy.

The Trump administration’s narrative focuses almost exclusively on the American merchandise trade deficit with the European Union. Yet Professor Young demonstrated that this perspective neglects two equally important realities. First, the United States enjoys a substantial trade surplus in services, reflecting American comparative advantages in finance, technology, digital services, consulting, education, and intellectual property. Second, and even more importantly, American multinational corporations generate significantly higher commercial sales through their European affiliates than European firms achieve through comparable operations in the United States. When investment-related economic activity is incorporated alongside conventional trade flows, the transatlantic relationship appears considerably more balanced than merchandise trade statistics alone would suggest. 

This distinction carries significant political implications. Populist narratives frequently portray trade as a zero-sum competition in which one country necessarily benefits at another’s expense. Professor Young argued that the transatlantic economy instead illustrates the opposite principle: sustained investment integration creates mutual dependence and shared prosperity that cannot be captured through simple import-export calculations. Policies designed exclusively to reduce merchandise trade deficits therefore risk disrupting broader economic relationships that generate substantial benefits for both partners.

Equally significant was Professor Young’s observation that more than half of all transatlantic trade in goods occurs within multinational corporations themselves. Parent companies and subsidiaries routinely exchange components, intermediate goods, technologies, and specialized services across national borders as part of integrated production processes. Even transactions occurring formally between separate firms frequently take place within long-established supply chains characterized by stable contractual relationships rather than anonymous market exchanges. Consequently, imports often function not as substitutes for domestic production but as indispensable complements to it. Restricting such trade through tariffs may therefore increase production costs for domestic firms rather than protecting them from foreign competition.

From Cooperation to Conflict: The Historical Evolution of Transatlantic Trade Relations

Having established the exceptional nature of the transatlantic economy, Professor Young turned to its historical evolution, emphasizing that economic interdependence has historically been accompanied by extensive institutional cooperation. While disagreements have periodically emerged, they rarely displaced the broader commitment to multilateral governance that characterized EU–US relations for most of the post-war era. Understanding today’s tensions therefore requires distinguishing between recurring commercial disputes and the more fundamental transformation currently underway. 

The earliest major disruption occurred during the Nixon Shock of 1971, when President Richard Nixon suspended the convertibility of the US dollar into gold, effectively bringing the Bretton Woods monetary system to an end. Simultaneously, the administration imposed a temporary ten-percent surcharge on imports as leverage to encourage trading partners to revalue their currencies. Professor Young emphasized that although these measures represented a dramatic departure from previous American policy, they remained explicitly temporary. Once negotiations concluded successfully through the Smithsonian Agreement, the additional tariffs were promptly removed. The episode therefore illustrates an important historical pattern: earlier trade conflicts sought to resolve specific macroeconomic problems without fundamentally challenging the legitimacy of multilateral cooperation itself. 

A second period of tension emerged during the 1980s, when the United States increasingly adopted what became known as “aggressive unilateralism.” Rather than relying exclusively upon multilateral negotiations, successive American administrations identified what they regarded as unfair foreign trade barriers and threatened unilateral retaliation to secure market access. While controversial, these policies nevertheless remained focused on particular commercial disputes rather than rejecting the broader institutional framework governing international trade.

Institutionalizing Trade Disputes: The WTO Era

The World Trade Organization (WTO) headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland—the only international organization responsible for setting and overseeing the rules governing trade between countries. Photo: Hector Christiaen.

Professor Young argued that the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995 fundamentally transformed the management of transatlantic trade tensions. Under the WTO’s institutional framework, disputes increasingly became subject to formal legal procedures rather than unilateral political bargaining. This institutionalization helped contain conflicts while preserving the broader cooperative relationship between the European Union and the United States. 

Several disputes discussed during the lecture illustrate this pattern. Long-running disagreements over hormone-treated beef and genetically modified organisms (GMOs) reflected American objections to European regulatory standards that restricted access for US agricultural exports. Although politically contentious, these cases remained confined to specific sectors and were ultimately addressed through established WTO dispute-settlement procedures.

Similarly, the prolonged conflict between Boeing and Airbus over alleged government subsidies generated years of litigation without fundamentally destabilizing transatlantic economic cooperation. Each side accused the other of unfairly supporting its domestic aircraft manufacturer, yet both accepted the legitimacy of resolving the dispute through multilateral legal mechanisms rather than abandoning the institutional framework altogether.

Professor Young also recalled the American safeguard tariffs on steel imports introduced during the early 2000s, which prompted measured European retaliation. Once again, despite political tensions, the dispute remained limited in scope and duration. Such episodes demonstrated the resilience of transatlantic cooperation precisely because both parties continued to recognize the authority of common international rules.

Cooperation as the Defining Characteristic of the Atlantic Partnership

Against this historical background, Professor Young advanced one of the lecture’s central arguments: although individual disputes frequently attracted media attention, they represented exceptions rather than the defining characteristic of EU–US trade relations. Throughout the post-war period, cooperation overwhelmingly outweighed conflict. He illustrated this point by tracing the joint leadership exercised by Europe and the United States in constructing the post-war trading system itself. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) emerged largely from Anglo-American cooperation, while the subsequent creation of the World Trade Organization likewise depended heavily upon sustained collaboration between Washington and Brussels. Rather than competing institutional visions, Europe and the United States shared a common commitment to progressively liberalizing international trade through mutually agreed multilateral rules. 

Even beyond formal multilateral negotiations, successive initiatives sought to deepen bilateral cooperation. Following the end of the Cold War, the New Transatlantic Agenda and related initiatives attempted to strengthen regulatory coordination and reduce unnecessary barriers to commerce. Although many of these efforts achieved only modest practical success, they reflected an enduring political commitment to managing differences cooperatively.

Professor Young highlighted data privacy as one of the most notable examples of successful regulatory accommodation. European data-protection legislation imposed strict conditions governing transfers of personal information outside the European Union, while American national security legislation following the September 11 attacks required extensive intelligence access to private data. Rather than allowing these competing legal frameworks to disrupt broader economic relations, both sides repeatedly negotiated compromise arrangements that sought to reconcile European privacy protections with American security requirements. Although challenged before European courts on several occasions, these agreements demonstrated a continuing willingness to preserve cooperation even under difficult legal circumstances.

The Promise and Failure of TTIP

Professor Young concluded this historical overview by examining the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations, which represented the most ambitious attempt to deepen transatlantic economic integration in recent decades. Contrary to many public perceptions, TTIP did not seek sweeping regulatory harmonization. Instead, negotiations focused primarily on eliminating remaining industrial tariffs, liberalizing selected service sectors, improving public procurement access, and reducing unnecessary regulatory duplication through mutual recognition where appropriate. 

Nevertheless, TTIP ultimately failed—not because of Donald Trump’s election alone but because political resistance had already emerged on both sides of the Atlantic. Within Europe, widespread public protests reflected fears that the agreement might weaken environmental, consumer, and food safety standards. In the United States, meanwhile, domestic regulatory agencies proved reluctant to accept European standards as functionally equivalent, while individual states resisted commitments concerning public procurement. Professor Young therefore emphasized that TTIP was already experiencing significant political difficulties before Trump’s first administration formally abandoned the negotiations.

Yet, despite TTIP’s failure, Professor Young argued that its broader significance lies elsewhere. Even unsuccessful negotiations reflected a continuing commitment to expanding transatlantic cooperation through negotiated institutional mechanisms. It is precisely this cooperative tradition, rather than any individual agreement, that distinguishes the historical transatlantic relationship from the confrontational and unilateral approach that has emerged under Donald Trump’s second presidency.

The Second Trump Administration: A Fundamental Departure from Post-War Trade Policy

Donald Trump.
Donald Trump’s first presidential campaign rally at the Phoenix Convention Center, where thousands gathered to hear him speak as protesters demonstrated outside. Photo: Danny Raustadt.

Having situated contemporary developments within the broader historical evolution of transatlantic economic cooperation, Professor Young turned to the central argument of his lecture: the trade policy pursued during Donald Trump’s second presidency represents not merely another episode of protectionism but a profound departure from the principles that have guided American trade policy since the Second World War. While previous disputes had largely concerned specific sectors, regulatory disagreements, or temporary macroeconomic adjustments, the current administration has challenged the very logic of post-war trade liberalization. According to Professor Young, this transformation cannot be adequately explained through traditional political economy models emphasizing industrial lobbying, sectoral interests, or changes in the structure of the American economy. Instead, it reflects the distinctive political worldview of Donald Trump himself and the growing influence of populist narratives within American trade politics. 

To illustrate this shift, Professor Young presented evidence showing the dramatic increase in American tariff levels during 2025. Although subsequent negotiations and exemptions moderated some of the initially announced tariff rates, the broader trend remained unmistakable. For the first time in decades, the United States had reversed the long historical trajectory toward progressively lower trade barriers that had characterized American policy since before the Second World War. Importantly, Professor Young emphasized that this reversal occurred without any comparable structural transformation within the American economy itself. There had been no sudden collapse of industrial competitiveness, no dramatic surge in demands for protection from domestic manufacturers, nor any major economic shock capable of explaining such a radical policy change through conventional economic reasoning. The explanation therefore lay elsewhere—in politics rather than economics.

Populism and Trump’s Understanding of International Trade

Professor Young argued that understanding Trump’s trade policy requires appreciating how he conceptualizes international commerce. Unlike earlier administrations, which typically focused on removing specific foreign trade barriers or expanding export opportunities for American firms, Trump’s approach is characterized by a far broader skepticism toward trade itself. Throughout his political career, extending back to the 1980s, Trump has consistently portrayed international trade as inherently disadvantageous to the United States. His concern is directed less toward individual regulatory disputes than toward imports generally, particularly manufactured imports that contribute to the American merchandise trade deficit. 

Professor Young described this perspective as fundamentally populist. Within Trump’s narrative, trade deficits are not the product of complex patterns of comparative advantage, global production networks, or consumer preferences. Rather, they are presented as evidence that foreign governments—assisted by corrupt domestic political elites—have systematically exploited ordinary American workers. This interpretation transforms international trade from a mutually beneficial economic exchange into a moral struggle between “the people” and a coalition of foreign competitors and domestic elites.

The lecture explored several possible explanations for Trump’s enduring commitment to protectionism. Professor Young noted that Trump’s hostility toward trade predates his entry into electoral politics by several decades, suggesting that it reflects deeply held personal convictions rather than short-term political calculation. He referred to the work of political scientist Diana Mutz, whose concept of the “drawbridge-up worldview” offers one possible interpretation. According to this perspective, individuals who perceive the outside world primarily as a source of threat are naturally inclined to oppose immigration, globalization, and international trade alike. Such a worldview provides a coherent psychological foundation for Trump’s consistent preference for tariffs and economic nationalism. 

Professor Young also discussed alternative scholarly interpretations. Some analysts, including Stacie Goddard and Abraham Newman, have argued that Trump’s trade policy reflects a form of neo-royalism, whereby tariffs serve principally to enhance presidential discretion by allowing the executive selectively to reward allies and punish opponents. While acknowledging that tariff authority undoubtedly strengthens presidential power, Professor Young questioned whether neo-royalism adequately explains Trump’s motivations. In his assessment, Trump’s long-standing commitment to tariffs predates the acquisition of executive authority itself. The concentration of political power resulting from tariff policy is therefore better understood as a consequence rather than the original objective of his protectionist agenda.

Geopolitics or Protectionism? Reassessing Trump’s Tariff Strategy

Another important theme addressed during the lecture concerned the relationship between trade policy and geopolitics. Many contemporary observers interpret Trump’s tariffs primarily as instruments of strategic coercion designed to advance broader foreign-policy objectives. Professor Young challenged this interpretation by distinguishing between exceptional geopolitical cases and the administration’s broader trade strategy.

He acknowledged that tariffs had occasionally been employed to exert diplomatic pressure—for example, threatening Colombia over the acceptance of deported migrants or Brazil concerning judicial proceedings involving former President Jair Bolsonaro. Yet these cases remained relatively limited and, in several instances, the threatened tariffs were either quickly withdrawn or never implemented. Similarly, despite political disagreements with European governments over issues such as Greenland, defence cooperation, or support for Ukraine, the administration generally refrained from imposing the sweeping punitive tariffs that many observers anticipated. 

For Professor Young, these examples demonstrate that geopolitics alone cannot explain the administration’s overall trade policy. Rather than using tariffs primarily as instruments of foreign policy, Trump continues to view them principally as solutions to what he perceives as structural problems within international trade itself. His administration’s protectionism is therefore rooted fundamentally in a populist understanding of economic exchange rather than in a coherent geopolitical grand strategy.

The Legal Architecture of Trump’s Trade Policy

A particularly illuminating aspect of Professor Young’s lecture concerned the legal mechanisms through which the second Trump administration implemented its trade agenda. Rather than seeking comprehensive new trade legislation from Congress, the administration relied extensively upon creative reinterpretations of pre-existing statutory authorities. This strategy reflected both political calculation and institutional constraint. As Professor Young observed, the absence of congressional legislation suggests that the administration lacked sufficient political support to enact its protectionist programme through ordinary legislative channels. Instead, it expanded presidential authority by drawing upon emergency powers and older trade statutes originally intended for very different circumstances. 

The most significant of these measures were the Liberation Day tariffs, introduced under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Initially imposing a twenty-percent tariff on European Union imports before temporarily reducing the rate to facilitate negotiations, the administration subsequently threatened to increase duties further if satisfactory agreements were not reached. Simultaneously, tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act were justified on national security grounds, extending earlier measures on steel and aluminium while adding automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and potentially aircraft and semiconductors to the list of targeted sectors.

Professor Young carefully distinguished between these various legal instruments. Section 232 investigations required formal administrative procedures and national security justifications, whereas Section 301 of the Trade Act addressed unfair foreign trade practices. Meanwhile, Section 122 provided temporary authority to respond to balance-of-payments crises. The administration’s increasing reliance upon multiple overlapping statutory provisions reflected its determination to preserve tariff authority even as judicial challenges intensified.

A particularly significant development occurred when the United States Supreme Court ruled that the administration had exceeded its authority under the IEEPA by imposing sweeping tariffs unrelated to genuine national emergencies. Professor Young explained that this decision forced the administration to reconstruct its trade policy through slower and more procedurally constrained legal mechanisms. Without IEEPA authority, the president could no longer credibly threaten immediate tariffs at will. Instead, future protectionist measures increasingly depended upon formal investigations under Sections 232 and 301, reducing executive flexibility while preserving significant scope for continued intervention.

Europe’s Response: Why the European Union Accepted an Unequal Agreement

European Commission headquarters with waving EU flags in Brussels. Photo: Viorel Dudau.

Professor Young then turned to one of the lecture’s most consequential questions: why did the European Union ultimately accept a trade agreement widely perceived as asymmetrical? At first glance, Europe’s willingness to tolerate higher tariffs while making extensive concessions on investment, liquefied natural gas purchases, defense procurement, and market access appeared surprising. Yet Professor Young argued that the agreement can only be understood within the broader geopolitical environment confronting European policymakers. 

The decisive factor, he suggested, was American escalation dominance. European leaders recognized that retaliatory tariffs might provoke not merely commercial countermeasures but broader strategic consequences affecting NATO, military support for Ukraine, and wider transatlantic security cooperation. Under such conditions, trade negotiations became inseparable from security considerations. Unlike China, which responded to American tariffs through symmetrical retaliation, the European Union confronted a much more complex strategic calculus in which commercial interests could not be isolated from defense and foreign policy.

Domestic economic considerations further reinforced this cautious approach. European governments also understood that tariffs impose significant costs upon importing countries themselves. Unlike President Trump, who consistently maintained that foreign exporters bear the burden of tariffs, European policymakers accepted the mainstream economic consensus that tariffs raise costs for domestic consumers and producers. Consequently, there was insufficient political support among member states for an escalatory strategy that risked both economic harm and geopolitical instability.

Professor Young emphasized that the resulting agreement should therefore not be interpreted simply as diplomatic weakness. Rather, it reflected a constrained strategic choice shaped by the intersection of trade policy, security dependence, domestic political calculations, and broader geopolitical uncertainty. The episode vividly illustrates how the second Trump administration has fundamentally altered the relationship between economics and security within the transatlantic partnership, making future trade negotiations inseparable from wider questions concerning the political future of the Atlantic alliance itself.

The Future of Transatlantic Trade: Between Strategic Adjustment and Structural Transformation

In the concluding section of his lecture, Professor Young shifted from diagnosing the contemporary crisis in transatlantic trade relations to assessing its longer-term implications for the liberal international economic order. While acknowledging that Trump’s second presidency has fundamentally disrupted established patterns of cooperation, he cautioned participants against interpreting current developments either as the complete collapse of globalization or as a temporary political aberration that will inevitably disappear with a future change of administration. Instead, he argued that the transatlantic trading relationship is entering a period of structural adaptation in which both the United States and the European Union are reassessing longstanding assumptions concerning openness, interdependence, and economic security. The precise trajectory of this transformation remains uncertain, yet its implications are likely to extend well beyond the current political cycle. 

Professor Young emphasized that contemporary trade conflicts cannot be understood simply through the language of winners and losers. Much of the public debate surrounding tariffs assumes that protectionist measures primarily harm foreign exporters while benefiting domestic industries. Throughout the lecture, however, he repeatedly challenged this assumption by drawing upon well-established principles of international economics. Tariffs are collected by the importing country and are generally borne—at least in substantial part—by domestic consumers, firms, and downstream producers through higher prices and increased production costs. While particular industries may receive temporary protection from foreign competition, the broader economy typically experiences reduced efficiency, increased inflationary pressures, and declining competitiveness.

This distinction is particularly important because it exposes the tension between economic analysis and populist political narratives. Professor Young observed that President Trump consistently presents tariffs as payments made by foreign governments, a characterization that enjoys considerable political resonance despite contradicting mainstream economic understanding. Such narratives simplify complex international production networks into easily understandable stories of national victimhood and economic exploitation, thereby reinforcing broader populist appeals centered upon sovereignty, fairness, and national renewal. The persistence of these narratives demonstrates that trade policy increasingly functions as a symbolic political instrument as much as an economic policy tool.

Is the World Entering an Era of Peak Protectionism?

Professor Young invited participants to consider whether the extraordinary escalation of tariff measures witnessed during 2025 might ultimately represent the high-water mark of contemporary protectionism rather than the beginning of an indefinite upward trajectory. He avoided making deterministic predictions but suggested several reasons for cautious optimism.

One important constraint derives from the institutional environment itself. Judicial scrutiny has already limited some aspects of presidential tariff authority, most notably through court decisions questioning the administration’s expansive interpretation of emergency powers under the IEEPA. Future administrations may therefore encounter greater legal obstacles should they attempt similarly broad exercises of executive trade authority. Moreover, reliance upon alternative statutory mechanisms such as Sections 232 and 301 requires more extensive investigations, administrative procedures, and opportunities for legal challenge, thereby reducing the flexibility that initially characterized Trump’s trade strategy. 

Economic realities may also impose practical limits upon sustained protectionism. As tariffs increasingly affect production costs, inflation, investment decisions, and consumer prices, domestic political support may weaken among sectors previously expected to benefit. Large multinational corporations operating integrated transatlantic supply chains face particularly complex adjustment costs, while export-oriented industries risk retaliatory measures from trading partners. These economic constraints do not eliminate the political appeal of protectionism but complicate its long-term sustainability.

Professor Young nevertheless cautioned against assuming that any future American administration will simply restore the pre-2016 status quo. Concerns regarding industrial resilience, supply-chain security, technological competition, and strategic dependence now extend across much of the American political spectrum. Although future governments may adopt less confrontational methods, greater emphasis upon industrial policy and economic security is likely to remain an enduring feature of American trade policy. Consequently, Europe must prepare for a transatlantic relationship in which strategic economic considerations occupy a far more prominent position than they did during the era of liberal globalization.

The WTO and the Resilience of Multilateral Governance

The lecture concluded with an assessment of the WTO and the broader future of multilateral trade governance. Professor Young acknowledged that the WTO currently confronts one of the most serious crises in its history. The paralysis of the Appellate Body, the increasing use of unilateral trade measures, and growing geopolitical rivalry have significantly weakened the institution’s capacity to enforce common rules. Yet he resisted suggestions that the multilateral trading system has become irrelevant.

Instead, Professor Young argued that the WTO continues to provide the essential legal and institutional framework within which the overwhelming majority of international trade still occurs. Even governments that increasingly resort to unilateral measures frequently justify their actions through existing WTO provisions or seek to preserve the broader institutional architecture. This paradox illustrates both the organization’s current weaknesses and its continuing importance. States may increasingly contest particular rules, yet relatively few advocate abandoning the multilateral trading system altogether. 

The relationship between the United States, the European Union, and China will be especially significant in determining the future evolution of the WTO. Professor Young suggested that effective reform will require accommodating new patterns of state intervention, industrial policy, technological competition, and strategic rivalry while preserving the core principles of predictability, reciprocity, and rules-based cooperation that have historically distinguished the multilateral trading system. Achieving such reforms will undoubtedly prove difficult, but abandoning institutional cooperation altogether would likely generate even greater instability.

Concluding Reflections

Professor Alasdair Young’s lecture offered participants a historically informed, theoretically sophisticated, and policy-relevant examination of one of the defining transformations currently affecting the international political economy. By tracing the evolution of EU–US trade relations from the immediate post-war period to Donald Trump’s second presidency, he demonstrated that contemporary tensions cannot be understood merely as another episode within a familiar cycle of transatlantic disagreement. Rather, they represent a more profound reorientation of American trade policy, one rooted in populist politics, growing skepticism toward globalization, and the increasing fusion of economic and security considerations.

A particularly significant contribution of the lecture was its insistence upon historical perspective. Throughout more than seventy years of transatlantic cooperation, disputes over agriculture, aircraft subsidies, steel, regulatory standards, and exchange-rate policy repeatedly emerged without fundamentally undermining the broader institutional relationship. By situating today’s conflicts within this longer historical trajectory, Professor Young showed precisely why the current moment differs. The second Trump administration has challenged not merely individual policies but many of the assumptions that previously sustained the transatlantic economic partnership itself.

Equally valuable was his nuanced interpretation of the European Union’s response. Rather than portraying European restraint as diplomatic weakness, Professor Young demonstrated that policymakers confronted a far more complex strategic environment in which trade negotiations were inseparable from wider concerns regarding NATO, Ukraine, and transatlantic security. His analysis illustrated how contemporary geoeconomics increasingly blurs the boundaries separating commercial policy, foreign affairs, and national defense.

Perhaps the lecture’s most enduring insight concerned the interaction between populism and international trade. Protectionism, Professor Young argued, derives much of its political power not from economic evidence but from compelling narratives of national decline, external exploitation, and sovereign recovery. These narratives increasingly shape democratic politics on both sides of the Atlantic, ensuring that trade policy will remain deeply politicized regardless of future changes in leadership.

For participants in the ECPS Academy Summer School 2026, the lecture provided far more than an overview of current tariff disputes. It offered a comprehensive analytical framework for understanding how populism, legal innovation, geopolitical rivalry, and institutional change are collectively reshaping one of the world’s most important economic relationships. By integrating historical scholarship, international political economy, trade law, and contemporary policy analysis, Professor Young demonstrated that the future of transatlantic trade will ultimately depend not only upon commercial negotiations but also upon the broader capacity of liberal democracies to reconcile economic openness with political legitimacy, strategic resilience, and an increasingly contested international order.